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ConnectwithGartner

The7KeyTrendsThatWillAffect

YourStrategicPlanning

MartyResnick

VPAnalyst

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GartnerFuturesLab

TapestryispartoftheGartnerFuturesLab,ourhomeforunconventional,speculativeandfuturisticresearch.

ThemissionoftheGartnerFuturesLabistoprepareyou

foruncertaintybyexploringnewwaysofimaginingthe

future.Bystartingwiththequestion“whatif…,”wehelpyoudetermineyourunchartednextmission-criticalpriorities.

4

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“Difficulttosee.Alwaysinmotionisthefuture.”

MasterYoda

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DisruptionIsEverywhere

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ThinkLongTermbutDon’tIgnoretheStorm

Source:

/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/00/IMG_2124_Everest.jpg/316px-IMG_2124_Everest.jpg

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Balance

TyrannyofthePossible

•Innovativeideasgetconstrained

•“Wewouldneverdothat”

•“Thatwillneverhappen”

•“That’sonlyinsciencefiction”

ArtofthePossible

•AnythingisPossible

•NoLimits

•Innovativeandcreativemindset

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ReachBeyondTechnology

Technology

Politics

Economics

Social/Cultural

Trust/Ethics

人Regulatory/Legal

Environmental

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TheMondayProblem

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Anticipate

Advocate

Accelerate

Anticipate

•AddressFutureUncertainties

•ExtendTimeHorizonsforPlanning

•MakePredictionsandBuildScenarios

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Advocate

•MakeMoreInformedDecisions

•AssessOpportunitiesandRisks

•OptimizeCorporate

InvestmentStrategies

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Accelerate

•AccelerateInnovation

•Future-teststrategies

•Action.Thefutureisimpactingthepresent.

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TheFutureWorldWillBegintoEmergefromTapestryandDisruptions

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Complexity,ChaosandConfidenceAcrossBraveNewWorlds

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•PlatformEngineering

•Metaverse

•AdaptiveAI

Technological

KeyTrendsAcrossBraveNewWorldsforStrategicPlanning

•GenerativeAI

•ComposableApplications

•DigitalImmunesystems

Political

••

NationalSelf-Sufficiency

ShiftingInternationalOrder

•

•

Multipolarity

Malinformation

Economic

•••

Energy—TheBigSqueeze

DemiseofDemographicDynanismDigitallyDominantProductivity

•

•

IndustrializationofSpace

ExpandingDigitalEconomy

Social/Cultural

•••

FutureofWorkReinvented

Community-EnforcedAccountability

DigitallyEnrichedvs.DigitallyDeprived

•

•

•

InstitutionsShapedbyPeopleAlgorithmHacking

PopulationMobility

Trust/Ethics

•••

AI-AmplifiedOutcomes

GlobalInstitutionalTrustTransformationThePurpose-DrivenOrganization

•

•

VolatilityofInformationValidationContextualPrivacyinDigital

Society

Regulatory/

Legal

•

•

ExpansionofNationalSecurityRegulation

DivergingDigitalStrategiesof

Regulation

•

RiseofCorporateClimateLiability

Environmental

•RenewableDistributedEnergyResources

•DigitalSustainability

•CircularEconomy

•ClimateAdaptation:

ResilientInfrastructure,EcosystemsandBusiness

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1.GenerativeAI

GenerativeAIreferstoAI

techniquesthatlearna

representationofartifactsfrom

dataanduseittogeneratenewartifactsthatappearsimilartotheoriginaldata.

GenerativeAIcanproducetotallynovelmediacontent(including

text,image,videoandaudio),

syntheticdata,andmodelsof

physicalobjects,suchasdrugs,materialsandparts.

AnticipateGenerativeAI

•By2026,generativeAIcodegeneration

modelswillhalvethe

amountofcodewrittenbydevelopers/humans.

•By2025,syntheticdatawillreducethe

collectionofpersonal

customerdata,

avoiding70%ofprivacyviolationsanctions.

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AdvocateGenerativeAI

•AcceleratingHype

•Rapid

Progress

•BroadUseCases

•Deepfakes

•Trustand

Transparency

•Widely

Available

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•CreatingandImproving

Content

•AugmentsContent

Creators

•BenefitsofSyntheticData

AccelerateGenerativeAI

•BeginusinggenerativeAIforcontentcreationandcodegeneration.

•Determinehowsyntheticallygenerateddatacouldspeedtheanalyticsdevelopmentcycle,lessenregulatoryconcerns,helpmonetizedataandlowerthecostofdataacquisition.

•Preparetomitigatetheimpactofdeepfakes,whichcancauseseriousdisinformationandreputationalrisk.

•InvestigatehowgenerativeAItechniquesbenefityourindustryorsector

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2.NationalSelf-Sufficiency

NationalSelf-Sufficiencyis

definedasgovernments

attemptingtoimprovedomestic

capabilitiesandsuppliesinkey

sectors—military,healthcare,

technology,foodandagriculture,energy,andmanufacturing—in

whichtheprivatesectormayfindnewdomesticopportunitieswithsustainedperiodsofhighdemandasparallelinitiativesacrossthe

globecompete.

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AnticipateNationalSelf-Sufficiency

•By2025,50%of

economieswillhave

shiftedinvestmentsfromrenewablestotraditionalenergy.

•By2030,66%ofnationalself-sufficiencyagendaswillmorphintoregionalself-

sufficiencycollaborationwithinblocs.

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AdvocateNationalSelf-Sufficiency

•Less

Competitive

•Highly

SpecializedOfferings

•Excess

ManufacturingCapacity

•Stifles

Innovation

•Export

Restrictions

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•AvailabilityofImports

•Subsidies

•Altered

CompetitiveLandscape

AccelerateNationalSelf-Sufficiency

•Shiftstrategicemphasisfromglobaltodomesticmarkets.

•Keepclosetieswithpolicymakersandnationalinterestgroupstoidentifyearlyinfrastructureandindustrialincentives.

•Createvisibilityintosupplychainstounderstandcriticaldependenciesbeyondnationalsources.

•Prepareriskresponsestrategiesearlytomovesupplychainson-or“nearshore”forcriticalmaterialsandsupplies.

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3.Energy-TheBigSqueeze

Energy—thebigsqueezeishighlycorrelatedwith

economicgrowth.1Yetweseektogrowoureconomiesjustasourconsumptionof—andaccesstoenergy—isdeclining.Thattrendisnotsustainableifoureconomic

growthgoalsaretobemet.

Economicgrowthwillstagnateorfallifpublicpolicyonlyfocusesonforcingchangetomeetclimategoalsand

doesnotincludehowtohelpthewidermarketinnovatewithnewsourcesofenergytomeetgreaterenergypercapita,orproductivityforgivenenergysources.

AnticipateEnergy-TheBigSqueeze

•By2027,90%ofelectric

vehicle(EV)charging

stationswillbe

unnecessaryand

defunctasenergy

supplyisinsufficient.

•By2027,25%of

vehiclesthattakeoffwillgointospace,notjustlandatanairportonEarth,asenergyissufficientlysupplied.

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AdvocateEnergy-TheBigSqueeze

•ClimatePolicy

•EnergySectorInnovation

•GovernmentInvestments

•PenaltiesforBehavior

•RewardingInnovation

•IncreasingCosts

•Energy

Evolution

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•CostofEnergy

•PublicPolicy

•UnevenEnergyReserves

•Centrally

Planned

EnergyMarket

AccelerateEnergy-TheBigSqueeze

•Watchpublic-sectorenergypolicyandenergylobbyists’focusand

investaccordinglyshouldtheseofferopportunitiesforyourbusiness.

•Seekproductivity-inducinginvestmenttodrivegreaterenergyyield,tohelpserviceeconomicgrowthdemands.

•Hedgeyourbetsbyusingdiverseenergysources.

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4.FutureofWorkReinvented

Thefutureofworkreinventedishuman-centric,combiningflexibleworkexperiences,intentional

collaborationandempathy-basedmanagement.Organizations

mustcontinuallyadaptworkmodelstomeldhuman-centricdesignwithemergingtechnologies,suchas

generativeAItoolslikeChatGPT.

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AnticipateFutureofWorkReinvented

•By2025,“labor

volatility”willcause

40%oforganizationstoreportamaterial

businessloss,forcingashiftintalentstrategy

fromacquisition

toresilience.

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•Through2025,

employeevaluemetricslikewell-being,

burnout,andbrand

satisfactionwill

overrideROI

evaluations.

AdvocateFutureofWorkReinvented

•Competition

•Worker

Autonomy

•EmployeeInnovation

•VirtualWork

•Reactive

Management

•Talent

AcquisitionvsTalent

ResilienceandAgility

•Digital

Dexterity

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•Open-Talent

•HighTurnover

•InstitutionalKnowledge

•Automation

•AsynchronousWorkModels

AccelerateFutureofWorkReinvented

•Develophuman-centricworkmodels.

•Facilitatevirtualandhybridworktoaccessdesirableskillsetsandmorediversetalentpools.

•Adaptaskills-basedtalentapproach.

•HarnessAIandautomationtoremovedrudgework,augmentworkersanddriveproductivity.

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5.AI-AmplifiedOutcomes

OurmeansofremediatingtheeffectsofAI-amplifiedoutcomesaresettofollowsuit,andrapidlyexpandand

evolve,whichallowsustoapplyor

reinforcethedesiredethicalstandardoradjusttechnologyamplificationintoadesireddirection.

AnticipateAI-AmplifiedOutcomes

•By2027,most

countrieswillhave

regulationsfortheuseoftechnologythat

isexplainable

andincludes

embeddedbias

amplificationcontrols.

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•Before2026,“promptengineers,”atechnicalpositionaimed

atcraftingpromptstoobtaindesiredoutputsfromAImodelswillbefunctionsthatare

globallyacknowledgedandpopulated.

AdvocateAI-AmplifiedOutcomes

•Ethical

Development

•Bias

Detection

•Educatingand

Consulting

•Ambiguity

•Privacy

Concerns

•Ethical

SourcingofData

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•CustomerLoyalty

•Explainability

•SlowerPace

AccelerateAI-AmplifiedOutcomes

•Increasetransparencyandstructuredcommunicationofdatasourcesandprocesses.

•IntroducenewpoliciesandpracticestoensurethatAIsystemsaretrainedondataandincorporatediversityandinclusion.

•CreatenewrolesorteamsresponsibleforamplifyingconsensusbuildingthatacknowledgesthechallengeswhenoptimizingforinteractionbetweenAImodelsandhumanemployees.

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5.AI-AmplifiedOutcomes

OurmeansofremediatingtheeffectsofAI-amplifiedoutcomesaresettofollowsuit,andrapidlyexpandand

evolve,whichallowsustoapplyor

reinforcethedesiredethicalstandardoradjusttechnologyamplificationintoadesireddirection.

AnticipateAI-AmplifiedOutcomes

•By2027,most

countrieswillhave

regulationsfortheuseoftechnologythat

isexplainable

andincludes

embeddedbias

amplificationcontrols.

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•Before2026,“promptengineers,”atechnicalpositionaimed

atcraftingpromptstoobtaindesiredoutputsfromAImodelswillbefunctionsthatare

globallyacknowledgedandpopulated.

AdvocateAI-AmplifiedOutcomes

•Ethical

Development

•Bias

Detection

•Educatingand

Consulting

•Ambiguity

•Privacy

Concerns

•Ethical

SourcingofData

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•CustomerLoyalty

•Explainability

•SlowerPace

AccelerateAI-AmplifiedOutcomes

•Increasetransparencyandstructuredcommunicationofdatasourcesandprocesses.

•IntroducenewpoliciesandpracticestoensurethatAIsystemsaretrainedondataandincorporatediversityandinclusion.

•CreatenewrolesorteamsresponsibleforamplifyingconsensusbuildingthatacknowledgesthechallengeswhenoptimizingforinteractionbetweenAImodelsandhumanemployees.

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Regulation

6.ExpansionofNationalSecurity

Expansionofnationalsecurity

regulationreferstotwointertwinedmovementsreshapingglobaltrade:(1)expandingdefinitionsofnaturalsecuritytoaccountfordata,

algorithmsandsupplychains,and(2)increasedandexplicitindustrialpolicycompetitionbetweeneconomic

regionsforthe“industriesofthe

future.”Whileneitherphenomenonisnew,theyareacceleratingandsupplytheregulatoryunderpinningsfor

economicnationalism.

AnticipateExpansionofNationalSecurityRegulation

•By2025,thecostofglobalcorporate

compliancewill

significantlyincreaseregulatorybarrierstoenternondomesticornonalignedmarkets.

•.

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•By2030,halfof

previouslyglobalvaluechainswillbe

reorientedasnationalorregionalchains.

AdvocateExpansionofNationalSecurityRegulation

•EfficientlyScale

•SubsidyBenefits

•GovernmentSpending

•Competition

•Complexity

•ReputationalRisk

•PoliticalRisk

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•ComplianceCost

•Less

Predictable

•Reshaping

GlobalSupplyChains

AccelerateExpansionofNationalSecurityRegulation

•Assessyourregulatorytrackingandgovernmentaffairscapabilities.

•Facilitateadiscussionwithseniorexecutivesabouttheorganization’sregulatorycompliancestrategy.

•Incorporatepoliticalriskandcompliancecosts.

•Workwithprocurement,supplychainandotherrelevantfunctionstoreviewcurrentprocessesformonitoringcountryoforiginregulations,globalcomplianceandrisktobusinesscontinuity.

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7.DistributedEnergyResources

Distributedenergyresources

(DERs)aresmall-scaleenergy

resourcesoftenlocatednearwhere

electricityisused.Theyreducethe

costformaintainingsystembalancingandelectricgridreliability,mitigate

thecongestionofavailabilityand

investmentacrossthegrid(suchasinHVACorthermalstorage),andallowenergyconsumerstocreateless

expensiveenergyandbuildenergyresilience.

AnticipateDistributedEnergyResources

•By2030,DERswill

substantiallyacceleratethedeploymentof

renewableresourcesbyutilities,communities

andinvestors.

.

•

•By2030,nontraditionalenergydistribution

solutionswillbethe

mostcost-effectivewayofscalingrenewable

energygenerating

capacity.

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AdvocateDistributedEnergyResources

•AddressPeaksinDemand

•Reduce

Investments

•Revenue

Generation

•Lackof

UtilizationData

•StressPoints

•Privacy

Concerns

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•Joint

Investment

•Energy

Resiliency

•EnhancedReputation

AccelerateDistributedEnergyResources

•UtilitiesshouldconsiderDERsasactiveenergymarketparticipants.

•HelpcustomersmonetizetheirDERs

•EnterprisesshouldImproveenergyefficiencyandconservationbychoosingtheamountofenergyrequiredfromrenewablesources.

•shouldevaluateincorporatingtheuseofDERstobolsterlow-carbonenergystrategies.

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55©2023

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