(3.1.1)-THE ECONOMICS OF THE COMING生态经济学生态经济学

THEECONOMICSOFTHECOMINGSPACESHIPEARTH

ByKennethE.Boulding,1966

Wearenowinthemiddleofalongprocessoftransitioninthenatureoftheimagewhichmanhasofhimselfandhisenvironment.Primitivemen,andtoalargeextentalsomenoftheearlycivilizations,imaginedthemselvestobelivingonavirtuallyillimitableplane.Therewasalmostalwayssomewherebeyondtheknownlimitsofhumanhabitation,andoveraverylargepartofthetimethatmanhasbeenonearth,therehasbeensomethinglikeafrontier.Thatis,therewasalwayssomeplaceelsetogowhenthingsgottoodifficult,eitherbyreasonofthcdeteriorationofthenaturalenvironmentoradeteriorationofthesocialstructureinplaceswherepeoplehappenedtolive.Theimageofthefrontierisprobablyoneoftheoldestimagesofmankind,anditisnotsurprisingthatwefindithardtogetridof.

Gradually,however,manhasbeenaccustominghimselftothenotionofthesphericalearthandaclosedsphereofhumanactivity.AfewunusualspiritsamongtheancientGreeksperceivedthattheearthwasasphere.Itwasonlywiththecircumnavigationsandthegeographicalexplorationsofthefifteenthandsixteenthcenturies,however,thatthefactthattheearthwasaspherebecameatallwidelyknownandaccepted.Eveninthethirteenthcentury,thecommonestmapwasMercator'sprojection,whichvisualizestheearthasanillimitablecylinder,essentiallyaplanewrappedaroundtheglobe,anditwasnotuntiltheSecondWorldWarandthedevelopmentoftheairagethattheglobalnatureoftileplanetreallyenteredthepopularimagination.Evennowweareveryfarfromhavingmadethemoral,political,andpsychologicaladjustmentswhichareimpliedinthistransitionfromtheillimitableplanetotheclosedsphere.

Economistsinparticular,forthemostpart,havefailedtocometogripswiththeultimateconsequencesofthetransitionfromtheopentotheclosedearth.Onehesitatestousetheterms"open"and"closed"inthisconnection,astheyhavebeenusedwithsomanydifferentshadesofmeaning.Nevertheless,itishardtofindequivalents.Theopensystem,indeed,hassomesimilaritiestotheopensystemofvonBertalanffy,

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inthatitimpliesthatsomekindofastructureismaintainedinthemidstofathroughputfrominputstooutputs.Inaclosedsystem,theoutputsofallpartsofthesystemarelinkedtotheinputsofotherparts.Therearenoinputsfromoutsideandnooutputstotheoutside;indeed,thereisnooutsideatall.Closedsystems,infact,areveryrareinhumanexperience,infactalmostbydefinitionunknowable,foriftherearegenuinelyclosedsystemsaroundus,wehavenowayofgettinginformationintothemoroutofthem;andhenceiftheyarereallyclosed,wewouldbequiteunawareoftheirexistence.Wecanonlyfindoutaboutaclosedsystemifweparticipateinit.Someisolatedprimitivesocietiesmayhaveapproximatedtothis,buteventhesehadtotakeinputsfromtheenvironmentandgiveoutputstoit.Alllivingorganisms,includingmanhimself,areopensystems.Theyhavetoreceiveinputsintheshapeofair,food,water,andgiveoffoutputsintheformofeffluviaandexcrement.Deprivationofinputofair,evenforafewminutes,isfatal.Deprivationoftheabilitytoobtainanyinputortodisposeofanyoutputisfatalinarelativelyshorttime.Allhumansocietieshavelikewisebeenopensystems.Theyreceiveinputsfromtheearth,theatmosphere,andthewaters,andtheygiveoutputsintothesereservoirs;theyalsoproduceinputsinternallyintheshapeofbabiesandoutputsintheshapeofcorpses.Givenacapacitytodrawuponinputsandtogetridofoutputs,anopensystemofthiskindcanpersistindefinitely.

Therearesomesystems--suchasthebiologicalphenotype,forinstancethehumanbody--whichcannotmaintainthemselvesindefinitelybyinputsandoutputsbecauseofthephenomenonofaging.Thisprocessisverylittleunderstood.Itoccurs,evidently,becausetherearesomeoutputswhichcannotbereplacedbyanyknowninput.Thereisnotthesamenecessityforaginginorganizationsandinsocieties,althoughananalogousphenomenonmaytakeplace.Thestructureandcompositionofallorganizationorsociety,however,canbemaintainedbyinputsoffreshpersonnelfrombirthandeducationastheexistingpersonnelagesandeventuallydies.Herewehaveaninterestingexampleofasystemwhichseemstomaintainitselfbytheself-generationofinputs,andinthissenseismovingtowardsclosure.Theinputofpeople(thatis,babies)isalsoalloutputofpeople(thatis,parents).

Systemsmaybeopenorclosedinrespecttoanumberofclassesofinputsandoutputs.Threeimportantclassesarematter,energy,andinformation.Thepresentworldeconomyisopeninregardtoallthree.Wecanthinkoftheworldeconomyor"econosphere"asasubsetofthe"worldset,"whichisthesetofallobjectsofpossiblediscourseintheworld.Wethenthinkofthestateoftheeconosphereatanyonemomentasbeingthetotalcapitalstock,thatis,thesetofallobjects,people,organizations,andsoon,whichareinterestingfromthepointofviewofthesystemofexchange.Thistotalstockofcapitalisclearlyanopensysteminthesensethatithasinputsandoutputs,inputsbeingproductionwhichaddstothecapitalstock,outputsbeingconsumptionwhichsubtractsfromit.Fromamaterialpointofview,weseeobjectspassingfromthenoneconomicintotheeconomicsetintheprocessofproduction,andwesimilarlyseeproductspassingoutoftheeconomicsetastheirvaluebecomeszero.Thusweseetheeconosphereasamaterialprocessinvolvingthediscoveryandminingoffossilfuels,ores,etc.,andattheotherendaprocessbywhichtheeffluentsofthesystemarepassedoutintononeconomicreservoirs--forinstance,theatmosphereandtheoceans--whicharenotappropriatedanddonotenterintotheexchangesystem.

Fromthepointofviewoftheenergysystem,theeconosphereinvolvesinputsofavailableenergyintheform,say,ofwaterpower,fossilfuels,orsunlight,whicharenecessaryinordertocreatethematerialthroughputandtomovematterfromthenoneconomicsetintotheeconomicsetorevenoutofitagain;andenergyitselfisgivenoffbythesysteminalessavailableform,mostlyintheformofheat.Theseinputsofavailableenergymustcomeeitherfromthesun(theenergysuppliedbyotherstarsbeingassumedtobenegligible)oritmaycomefromtheearthitself,eitherthroughitsinternalheatorthroughitsenergyofrotationorothermotions,whichgenerate,forinstance,theenergyofthetides.Agriculture,afewsolarmachines,andwaterpowerusethecurrentavailableenergyincome.Inadvancedsocietiesthisissupplementedveryextensivelybytheuseoffossilfuels,whichrepresentasitwereacapitalstockofstored-upsunshine.Becauseofthiscapitalstockofenergy,wehavebeenabletomaintainanenergyinputintothesystem,particularlyoverthelasttwocenturies,muchlargerthanwewouldhavebeenabletodowithexistingtechniquesifwehadhadtorelyonthecurrentinputofavailableenergyfromthesunortheearthitself.Thissupplementaryinput,however,isbyitsverynatureexhaustible.

Theinputsandoutputsofinformationaremoresubtleandhardertotrace,butalsorepresentanopensystem,relatedto,butnotwhollydependenton,thetransformationsofmatterandenergy.Byfarthelargeramountofinformationandknowledgeisself-generatedbythehumansociety,thoughacertainamountofinformationcomesintothesociosphereintheformoflightfromtheuniverseoutside.Theinformationthatcomesfromtheuniversehascertainlyaffectedman'simageofhimselfandofhisenvironment,aswecaneasilyvisualizeifwesupposethatwelivedonaplanetwithatotalcloud-coverthatkeptoutallinformationfromtheexterioruniverse.Itisonlyinveryrecenttimes,ofcourse,thattheinformationcominginfromtheuniversehasbeencapturedandcodedintotheformofacompleximageofwhattheuniverseislikeoutsidetheearth;buteveninprimitivetimes,man'sperceptionoftheheavenlybodieshasalwaysprofoundlyaffectedhisimageofearthandofhimself.Itistheinformationgeneratedwithintheplanet,however,andparticularlythatgeneratedbymanhimself,whichformsbyfarthelargerpartoftheinformationsystem.Wecanthinkofthestockofknowledge,orasTeilharddeChardincalledit,the"noosphere,"andconsiderthisasanopensystem,losingknowledgethroughaginganddeathandgainingitthroughbirthandeducationandtheordinaryexperienceoflife.

Fromthehumanpointofview,knowledgeorinformationisbyfarthemostimportantofthethreesystems.Matteronlyacquiressignificanceandonlyentersthesociosphereortheeconosphereinsofarasitbecomesanobjectofhumanknowledge.Wecanthinkofcapital,indeed,asfrozenknowledgeorknowledgeimposedonthematerialworldintheformofimprobablearrangements.Amachine,forinstance,originatedinthemindofman,andbothitsconstructionanditsuseinvolveinformationprocessesimposedonthematerialworldbymanhimself.Thecumulationofknowledge,thatis,theexcessofitsproductionoveritsconsumption,isthekeytohumandevelopmentofallkinds,especiallytoeconomicdevelopment.Wecanseethispre-eminenceofknowledgeveryclearlyintheexperiencesofcountrieswherethematerialcapitalhasbeendestroyedbyawar,asinJapanandGermany.Theknowledgeofthepeoplewasnotdestroyed,anditdidnottakelong,therefore,certainlynotmorethantenyears,formostofthematerialcapitaltobereestablishedagain.InacountrysuchasIndonesia,however,wheretheknowledgedidnotexist,thematerialcapitaldidnotcomeintobeingeither.By"knowledge"hereImean,ofcourse,thewholecognitivestructure,whichincludesvaluationsandmotivationsaswellasimagesofthefactualworld.

Theconceptofentropy,usedinasomewhatloosesense,canbeappliedtoallthreeoftheseopensystems.Inthecaseofmaterialsystems,wecandistinguishbetweenentropicprocesses,whichtakeconcentratedmaterialsanddiffusethemthroughtheoceansorovertheearth'ssurfaceorintotheatmosphere,andanti-entropicprocesses,whichtakediffusematerialsandconcentratethem.Materialentropycanbetakenasameasureoftheuniformityofthedistributionofelementsand,moreuncertainly,compoundsandotherstructuresontheearth'ssurface.Thereis,fortunately,nolawofincreasingmaterialentropy,asthereisinthecorrespondingcaseofenergy,asitisquitepossibletoconcentratediffusedmaterialsifenergyinputsareallowed.Thustheprocessesforfixationofnitrogenfromtheair,processesfortheextractionofmagnesiumorotherelementsfromthesea,andprocessesforthedesalinizationofseawaterareanti-entropicillthematerialsense,thoughthereductionofmaterialentropyhastobepaidforbyinputsofenergyandalsoinputsofinformation,oratleastastockofinformationinthesystem.Inregardtomatter,therefore,aclosedsystemisconceivable,thatis,asysteminwhichthereisneitherincreasenordecreaseinmaterialentropy.Insuchasystemalloutputsfromconsumptionwouldconstantlyberecycledtobecomeinputsforproduction,asforinstance,nitrogeninthenitrogencycleofthenaturalecosystem.

Inregardtotheenergysystemthereis,unfortunately,noescapefromthegrimSecondLawofThermodynamics;andiftherewerenoenergyinputsintotheearth,anyevolutionaryordevelopmentalprocesswouldbeimpossible.Thelargeenergyinputswhichwehaveobtainedfromfossilfuelsarestrictlytemporary.Eventhemostoptimisticpredictionswouldexpecttheeasilyavailablesupplyoffossilfuelstobeexhaustedinamerematterofcenturiesatpresentratesofuse.IftherestoftheworldweretorisetoAmericanstandardsofpowerconsumption,andstillmoreifworldpopulationcontinuestoincrease,theexhaustionoffossilfuelswouldbeevenmorerapid.Thedevelopmentofnuclearenergyhasimprovedthispicture,buthasnotfundamentallyalteredit,atleastinpresenttechnologies,forfissionablematerialisstillrelativelyscarce.Ifweshouldachievetheeconomicuseofenergythroughfusion,ofcourse,amuchlargersourceofenergymaterialswouldbeavailable,whichwouldexpandthetimehorizonsofsupplementaryenergyinputintoanopensocialsystembyperhapstenstohundredsofthousandsofyears.Failingthis,however,thetimeisnotveryfardistant,historicallyspeaking,whenmanwilloncemorehavetoretreattohiscurrentenergyinputfromtilesun,eventhoughthiscouldbeusedmuchmoreeffectivelythaninthepastwithincreasedknowledge.Uptonow,certainly,wehavenotgotveryfarwiththetechnologyofusingcurrentsolarenergy,butthepossibilityofsubstantialimprovementsinthefutureiscertainlyhigh.Itmaybe,indeed,thatthebiologicalrevolutionwhichisjustbeginningwillproduceasolutiontothisproblem,aswedevelopartificialorganismswhicharecapableofmuchmoreefficienttransformationofsolarenergyintoeasilyavailableformsthananythatwenowhave.AsRichardMeierhassuggested,wemayrunourmachinesinthefuturewithmethane-producingalgae.

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Thequestionofwhetherthereisanythingcorrespondingtoentropyintheinformationsystemisapuzzlingone,thoughofgreatinterest.Therearecertainlymanyexamplesofsocialsystemsandcultureswhichhavelostknowledge,especiallyintransitionfromonegenerationtothenext,andinwhichtheculturehasthereforedegenerated.OneonlyhastolookatthefolkcultureofAppalachianmigrantstoAmericancitiestoseeaculturewhichstartedoutasafairlyrichEuropeanfolkcultureinElizabethantimesandwhichseemstohavelostbothskills,adaptability,folktales,songs,andalmosteverythingthatgoesuptomakerichnessandcomplexityinaculture,inthecourseofabouttengenerations.TheAmericanIndiansonreservationsprovideanotherexampleofsuchdegradationoftheinformationandknowledgesystem.Ontheotherhand,overagreatpartofhumanhistory,thegrowthofknowledgeintheearthasawholeseemstohavebeenalmostcontinuous,eventhoughtherehavebeentimesofrelativelyslowgrowthandtimesofrapidgrowth.Asitisknowledgeofcertainkindsthatproducesthegrowthofknowledgeingeneral,wehavehereaverysubtleandcomplicatedsystem,anditishardtoputone'sfingerontheparticularelementsinaculturewhichmakeknowledgegrowmoreorlessrapidly,orevenwhichmakeitdecline.Oneofthegreatpuzzlesinthisconnection,forinstance,iswhythetake-offintoscience,whichrepresentsan"acceleration,"oranincreaseintherateofgrowthofknowledgeinEuropeansocietyinthesixteenthcentury,didnottakeplaceinChina,whichatthattime(about1600)wasunquestionablyaheadofEurope,andonewouldthinkevenmorereadyforthebreakthrough.Thisisperhapsthemostcrucialquestioninthetheoryofsocialdevelopment,yetwemustconfessthatitisverylittleunderstood.Perhapsthemostsignificantfactorinthisconnectionistheexistenceof"slack"intheculture,whichpermitsadivergencefromestablishedpatternsandactivitywhichisnotmerelydevotedtoreproducingtheexistingsocietybutisdevotedtochangingit.Chinawasperhapstoowell-organizedandhadtoolittleslackinitssocietytoproducethekindofaccelerationwhichwefindinthesomewhatpoorerandlesswell-organizedbutmorediversesocietiesofEurope.

Theclosedearthofthefuturerequireseconomicprincipleswhicharesomewhatdifferentfromthoseoftheopenearthofthepast.Forthesakeofpicturesqueness,Iamtemptedtocalltheopeneconomythe"cowboyeconomy,"thecowboybeingsymbolicoftheillimitableplainsandalsoassociatedwithreckless,exploitative,romantic,andviolentbehavior,whichischaracteristicofopensocieties.Tileclosedeconomyofthefuturemightsimilarlybecalledthe"spaceman"economy,inwhichtheearthhasbecomeasinglespaceship,withoutunlimitedreservoirsofanything,eitherforextractionorforpollution,andinwhich,therefore,manmustfindhisplaceinacyclicalecologicalsystemwhichiscapableofcontinuousreproductionofmaterialformeventhoughitcannotescapehavinginputsofenergy.Thedifferencebetweenthetwotypesofeconomybecomesmostapparentintheattitudetowardsconsumption.Inthecowboyeconomy,consumptionisregardedasagoodthingandproductionlikewise;andthcsuccessoftheeconomyismeasuredbytheamountoftilethroughputfromthe"factorsofproduction,"apartofwhich,atanyrate,isextractedfromthereservoirsofrawmaterialsandnoneconomicobjects,andanotherpartofwhichisoutputintothereservoirsofpollution.Ifthereareinfinitereservoirsfromwhichmaterialcanbeobtainedandintowhicheffluviacanbedeposited,thenthethroughputisatleastaplausiblemeasureofthesuccessoftheeconomy.Thegrossnationalproductisaroughmeasureofthistotalthroughput.Itshouldbepossible,however,todistinguishthatpartoftheGNPwhichisderivedfromexhaustibleandthatwhichisderivedfromreproducibleresources,aswellasthatpartofconsumptionwhichrepresentseffluviaandthatwhichrepresentsinputintotheproductivesystemagain.Nobody,asfarasIknow,haseverattemptedtobreakdowntheGNPinthisway,althoughitWouldbeaninterestingandextremelyimportantexercise,whichisunfortunatelybeyondthescopeofthispaper.

Bycontrast,inthespacemaneconomy,throughputisbynomeansadesideratum,andisindeedtoberegardedassomethingtobeminimizedratherthanmaximized.Theessentialmeasureofthesuccessoftheeconomyisnotproductionandconsumptionatall,butthenature,extent,quality,andcomplexityofthetotalcapitalstock,includinginthisthestateofthehumanbodiesandmindsincludedinthesystem.Inthespacemaneconomy,whatweareprimarilyconcernedwithisstockmaintenance,andanytechnologicalchangewhichresultsinthemaintenanceofagiventotalstockwithalessenedthroughput(thatis,lessproductionandconsumption)isclearlyagain.Thisideathatbothproductionandconsumptionarebadthingsratherthangoodthingsisverystrangetoeconomists,whohavebeenobsessedwithtileincome-flowconceptstotheexclusion,almost,ofcapital-stockconcepts.

Thereareactuallysomeverytrickyandunsolvedproblemsinvolvedinthequestionsastowhetherhumanwelfareorwell-beingistoberegardedasastockoraflow.Somethingofboththeseelementsseemsactuallytobeinvolvedinit,andasfarasIknowtherehavebeenpracticallynostudiesdirectedtowardsidentifyingthesetwodimensionsofhumansatisfaction.Isit,forinstance,eatingthatisagoodthing,orisitbeingwellfed?Doeseconomicwelfareinvolvehavingniceclothes,finehouses,goodequipment,andsoon,orisittobemeasuredbythedepreciationandthewearingoutofthesethings?Iaminclinedmyselftoregardthestockconceptasmostfundamental,thatis,tothinkofbeingwellfedasmoreimportantthaneating,andtothinkevenofso-calledservicesasessentiallyinvolvingtherestorationofadepletingpsychiccapital.ThusIhavearguedthatwegotoaconcertinordertorestoreapsychicconditionwhichmightbecalled"justhavinggonetoaconcert,"which,onceestablished,tendstodepreciate.Whenitdepreciatesbeyondacertainpoint,wegotoanotherconcertinordertorestoreit.Ifitdepreciatesrapidly,wegotoalotofconcerts;ifitdepreciatesslowly,wegotofew.Onthisview,similarly,weeatprimarilytorestorebodilyhomeostasis,thatis,tomaintainaconditionofbeingwellfed,andsoon.Onthisview,thereisnothingdesirableinconsumptionatall.Thelessconsumptionwecanmaintainagivenstatewith,thebetteroffweare.Ifwehadclothesthatdidnotwearout,housesthatdidnotdepreciate,andevenifwecouldmaintainourbodilyconditionwithouteating,wewouldclearlybemuchbetteroff.

Itisthislastconsideration,perhaps,whichmakesonepause.Wouldwe,forinstance,reallywantanoperationthatatwouldenableustorestoreallourbodilytissuesbyintravenousfeedingwhileweslept?Istherenot,thatistosay,acertainvirtueinthroughputitself,inactivityitself,inproductionandconsumptionitself,inraisingfoodandineatingit?Itwouldcertainlyberashtoexcludethispossibility.Furtherinterestingproblemsareraisedbythedemandforvariety.Wecertainlydonotwantaconstantstatetobemaintained;wewantfluctuationsinthestate.Otherwisetherewouldbenodemandforvarietyinfood,forvarietyinscene,asintravel,forvarietyinsocialcontact,andsoon.Thedemandforvarietycan,ofcourse,becostly,andsometimesitseemstobetoocostlytobetoleratedoratleastlegitimated,asintilecaseofmaritalpartners,wherethemaintenanceofahomeostaticstateinthefamilyisusuallyregardedasmuchmoredesirablethanthevarietyandexcessivethroughputofthelibertine.Thereareproblemsherewhichtheeconomicsprofessionhasneglectedwithastonishingsinglemindedness.Myownattemptstocallattentiontosomeofthem,forinstance,intwoarticles,

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asfarasIcalljudge,producednoresponsewhatever;andeconomistscontinuetothinkandactasifproduction,consumption,throughput,andtheGNPwerethesufficientandadequatemeasureofeconomicsuccess.

Itmaybesaid,ofcourse,whyworryaboutallthiswhenthespacemaneconomyisstillagoodwayoff(atleastbeyondthelifetimesofanynowliving),soletuseat,drink,spend,extractandpollute,andbeasmerryaswecan,andletposterityworryaboutthespaceshipearth.Itisalwaysalittlehardtofindaconvincinganswertothemanwhosays,"Whathasposterityeverdoneforme?"andtheconservationisthasalwayshadtofallbackonrathervagueethicalprinciplespostulatingidentityoftheindividualwithsomehumancommunityorsocietywhichextendsnotonlybackintothepastbutforwardintothefuture.Unlesstheindividualidentifieswithsomecommunityofthiskind,conservationisobviously"irrational."Whyshouldwenotmaximizethewelfareofthisgenerationatthecostofposterity?

"Apresnous,ledeluge"

hasbeenthemottoofnotinsignificantnumbersofhumansocieties.Theonlyanswertothis,asfarasIcansee,istopointoutthatthewelfareoftheindividualdependsontheextenttowhichhecanidentifyhimselfwithothers,andthatthcmostsatisfactoryindividualidentityisthatwhichidentifiesnotonlywithacommunityinspacebutalsowithacommunityextendingovertimefromthepastintothefuture.Ifthiskindofidentityisrecognizedasdesirable,thenposterityhasavoice,evenifitdoesnothaveavote;andinasense,ifitsvoicecaninfluencevotes,ithasvotestoo.Thiswholeproblemislinkedtipwiththemuchlargeroneofthedeterminantsofthemorale,legitimacy,and"nerve"ofasociety,andthereisagreatdealofhistoricalevidencetosuggestthatasocietywhichlosesitsidentitywithposterityandwhichlosesitspositiveimageofthefuturelosesalsoitscapacitytodealwithpresentproblems,andsoonfallsapart.

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Evenifweconcedethatposterityisrelevanttoourpresentproblems,westillfacethequestionoftime-discountingandthecloselyrelatedquestionofuncertainty-discounting.Itisawell-knownphenomenonthatindividualsdiscountthefuture,evenintheirownlives.Theveryexistenceofapositiverateofinterestmaybetakenasatleaststrongsupportingevidenceofthishypothesis.Ifwediscountourownfuture,itiscertainlynotunreasonabletodiscountposterity'sfutureevenmore,evenifwedogiveposterityavote.Ifwediscountthisat5percentperannum,posterity'svoteordollarhalveseveryfourteenyearsaswelookintothefuture,andafterevenamerehundredyearsitisprettysmall--onlyabout11/2centsonthedollar.Ifweaddanother5percentforuncertainty,eventhevoteofourgrandchildrenreducesalmosttoinsignificance.Wecanargue,ofcourse,thattheethicalthingtodoisnottodiscountthcfutureatall,thattime-discountingismainlytheresultofmyopiaandperspective,andhenceisanillusionwhichthemoralmanshouldnottolerate.Itisaverypopularillusion,however,andonethatmustcertainlybetakenintoconsiderationintheformulationofpolicies.Itexplains,perhaps,whyconservationistpoliciesalmosthavetobesoldundersomeotherexcusewhichseemsmoreurgent,andwhy,indeed,necessitieswhicharevisualizedasurgent,suchasdefense,alwaysseemtoholdpriorityoverthosewhichinvolvethcfuture.

Alltheseconsiderationsaddsomecredencetothepointofviewwhichsaysthatweshouldnotworryaboutthespacemaneconomyatall,andthatweshouldjustgoonincreasingtheGNPandindeedthegrossworldproduct,orGWP,intheexpectationthattheproblemsofthefuturecanbelefttothefuture,thatwhenscarcitiesarise,whetherthisisofrawmaterialsorofpollutablereservoirs,theneedsofthethenpresentwilldeterminethesolutionsofthethenpresent,andthereisnousegivingourselvesulcersbyworryingaboutproblemsthatwereallydonothavetosolve.ThereisevenhighethicalauthorityforthispointofviewintheNewTestament,whichadvocatesthatweshouldtakenothoughtfortomorrowandletthedeadburytheirdead.Therehasalwaysbeensomethingratherrefreshingintheviewthatweshouldlivelikethebirds,andperhapsposterityisforthebirdsinmoresensesthanone;soperhapsweshouldallcallitadayandgooutandpollutesomethingcheerfully.

Asanoldtakerofthoughtforthemorrow,however,Icannotquiteacceptthissolution;andIwouldargue,furthermore,thattomorrowisnotonlyveryclose,butinmanyrespectsitisalreadyhere.Theshadowofthefuturespaceship,indeed,isalreadyfallingoverourspendthriftmerriment.Oddlyenough,itseemstobeinpollutionratherthaninexhaustionthattheproblemisfirstbecomingsalient.LosAngeleshasrunoutofair,LakeEriehasbecomeacesspool,theoceansaregettingfullofleadandDDT,andtheatmospheremaybecomeman'smajorprobleminanothergeneration,