麦肯锡-zonal-compute 为下一代汽车EE架构做好准备-2023-10-智能网联

Gettingreadyfornext-generation

E/Earchitecturewithzonal

compute

Thenextgenerationofelectrical/electronicarchitecture

willplayavitalroleinthesoftware-definedvehiclesof

thefuture—OEMsandchipmakersneedtobestrategic

intheirchoices.

ThisarticleisacollaborativeeffortbetweentheGlobalSemiconductorAlliance,andOndrejBurkacky,JohannesDeichmann,Martin

Kellner,FabianSteiner,andJuliaWerra,representingviewfromMcKinsey’sSemiconductorsPractice.

June2023

Differentiationintoday’sautomarketis

allaboutdigital.Consumersvaluesoftware-

enabledfeaturesthatreflectthewider

throughwhichafewdomaincomputersreplace

severalECUs,enablingmorecomplexcross-domain

functions.

“smartphonification”ofpassengervehicles—

includingautonomousdriving(AD),connectivity,

electrification,andsharedmobility(ACES).

Meetingtheseneedsmeansconnectedcars

mustcontinuouslyupdatesoftware,engagewith

digitalecosystems,andprovideinstantaccess

toonboardandoffboarddata.Anenablerof

thesecapabilitiesiselectric/electronic(E/E)and

softwarearchitecture,whichissettoplayavital

roleinshapingtheautomotiveandsemiconductor

valuechain.

Themostrecent(fifth-generation)architecture

introduceszonalcontrollersandcentralcompute

units(Exhibit1).Thesehavethepotentialtomanage

risingnumbersofcontrolunits,aswellassimplify

softwarestacksandfeaturedeployment.However,

theyalsocreatechallengesforcarmakers,including

relatingtolatencyandoptimalcontrollertopology,

wheretherearesignificantdesigndifferences

acrosstheindustry.Inthisarticle,wedrilldowninto

thesecompetingdynamicsandconsiderstrategies

forvaluechainparticipantsasthemarketevolves.

Thestakesarehighforbothautoandchip

makers.By2030,theglobalautomotivesoftware

andelectronicsmarketisexpectedtoreach

$460billion,representing6percentgrowth

(CAGR)from2019to2030.Meanwhile,higher

numbersofmorecomplexfeaturesputheavy

demandsonsystems,whilesoftwareissues

cancauselaunchdelaysorrecalls.With150or

moreelectroniccontrolunits(ECUs)insome

premiumvehicles,significantdevelopment,

integration,andvalidationarerequired.Inthat

context,E/Earchitectureisacriticalvariablethat

requiresnuancedjudgementsoverbudgetsand

configuration.

Benefitsoffifth-generation

architectures

Thesinglebiggestdesignbenefitoffifth-generation

architecturesisthattheyofferOEMstheability

tosimplifythecontrolunitlandscape.Still,as

OEMstransition,theyneedtogaugethepotential

benefitsofdifferenttechnicalapproaches,which

canbebroadlycategorizedunderthefollowingfour

banners:

1.Facilitationofsecureover-the-air(OTA)

updates:LargenumbersofECUscancause

updatebottlenecksandcomplexity,leadingto

challengesaroundsafety,reliability,regulatory

compliance,andauthenticityofindividual

images.Theconsolidationofferedbyzonal

architectureisasignificantstepforwardthatwill

alsofacilitaterollbackswhenupdatesfail.

AutomotiveE/Earchitectureshaveevolvedfrom

earlygenerationsbasedondecentralizedmodels

andsingleECUs,toever-increasingnumbersof

ECUsandcloserintegration.Inthepastfewyears,

domaincentralizedarchitectureshaveemerged,

Exhibit1

PremiumOEMshaveadoptedavarietyoftopologiesforE/Earchitecture.

Variousexampletopologies

ZCU¹

CCU/DCU²

OEM7

OEM1

OEM2

OEM3

OEM4

OEM5

OEM6

1

Zonalcomputeunits.

Centralcomputeunits/domaincomputeunits.

2

2

Gettingreadyfornext-generationE/Earchitecturewithzonal

2.Decouplingofhardwareandsoftware:

Decouplingoffersthepotentialtospeed

updevelopmenttimes—enablingfaster

reengineeringandadaption(reducing

dependencyonindividualsuppliers)and

acceleratingtimetomarket,aswellasboosting

innovationflexibility.Decouplingcanbe

achievedthroughabstractionlayersinsoftware

stacks,sothatonezonalcontrollerimplements

thefunctionalityofseveral,previouslyseparate,

ECUs.Abstractionlayerscanbeconstructed

withless,andmorecommoditized,compute

hardware.

4.Reductionofwiringharnesscomplexity:Because

zonalcontrollersserveasinput/output(I/O)

aggregatorsandareoftenplacedatthemechanical

rimofthecar,theyenablealesscomplexwiring

harness,whichinturncanfosterstandardization,

supportautomationintheproductionprocess,

andreducecostsduetoloweremployeeskills

needs.Givenwiringharnesscostsinamodern

vehicleoftenaccountfor20percentoftotalE/E

architecturebudgets,thisamountstoasignificant

benefit.

Zonalarchitecturetoexpand

marketshare

BasedonfactorsincludingannouncedE/E

3.Increasingsiliconconsolidationand

integration:Byadoptingthefunctionalityof

severalECUs,zonalcontrollersachievesilicon

consolidationandintegration.Meanwhile,

smallernodesizesboostpowerefficiency.

Emergingsystem-on-chipdesignsbring

togetherseveralcentralprocessingunit

(CPU),memory,anddedicatedhardware(HW)

acceleratorsubsystems,thelatterenabling

deterministicroutinglatenciesandfreedom

frominference.Unsurprisingly,thismeans

thatthelatestsystem-on-a-chip(SoCs)for

zonalcontrollersarebasedonnodesizesof16

nanometers(nm)andbelow.

architecturelaunches,expertestimates,typical

platformproductiontimes,advanceddriverassistance

systems(ADAS)adoption,andtotalcostofownership

benefitsfordifferentvehiclesclasses,weexpectthe

globalshareofvehicleswithzonalarchitectureto

reacharound18percentin2030,whiledomain-based

architectures(includinglightarchitectureswithonly

onedigitalcontrolunit(DCU)andfullarchitectures,in

whichalldomainscomputehaveaDCU)willaccountfor

48percentanddistributedarchitecturefor34percent

(Exhibit2).Thelatterisduetothefactthatwewillstill

seevehiclesproducedonolderarchitecturesaswell.

Exhibit2

E/Earchitecturedesigndistributionswillvaryovertime.

Designdistributionsbasedonprojectedvehicleproductionvolumes,%

DistributedECU¹

Domainbased

Zonal

100

80

60

40

20

0

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

1

Electroniccomputeunit.

Source:McKinseyCenterforFutureMobility

Gettingreadyfornext-generationE/Earchitecturewithzonal

3

Theanalysiscarriedoutforthispapersuggests

theautomotivecomputeunitmarket(distributed

ECUs,DCUs,zonalcomputeunits[ZCUs],and

centralcomputeunits[CCUs])willgrowatarate

ofaround6percentannuallybetween2023and

2030(Exhibit3).Becauseofconsolidationin

functionality,theECUmarketwillcontractslightly

(–1percentannually)whilethemarketfordomain

computeunits(DCU),ZCU,andCCUwillgrowat

around30to40percentperyear.Thesignificant

marketvalueforCCUsistheresultofrelatively

highprices($1,000to$4,000dependingonthe

SocietyofAutomotiveEngineers’[SAE]levelfor

theADAS/ADpart).Bycontrast,averageselling

pricesforzonecontrollersareexpectedtoprice

inthe$50to$70range.

whichoffersadistinctsetofbenefitsatdifferent

pricepoints:

—I/Oaggregators:Intheirsimplestversion,

zonecontrollersactasI/Oaggregators

andgateways,passingoninformationfrom

connectedsensorsandactuatorstoCPUs,and

viceversa.Theyenablesimplificationofthe

wiringharnessatthemechanicalrimofthe

car.However,giventhepotentialchallenge

oflatenciesinsafety-criticalapplications,it

iscommontoseenetworkingfunctionality

offloadedfromthemainCPU,anditbecomes

moreimportanttoimplementroutingand

switchingindedicatedhardware.

—I/Oaggregatorswithpowercontrol:An

enhancementonsimplezonecontrollers

istocombineI/Oaggregatorfunctionality

withpowercontrolanddistribution.Through

smartfuses,thisenablesfine-grainedpower

distributiontodifferentpartsofavehicle—for

example,enablingatradeoffbetweensafety

andcomfortrequirements.Further,itpermits

predictiveloadbalancingandcomprehensive

Controllerdesignarchetypes:What

worksbest

Whenitcomestozonalcontrollerdesign,value

chainparticipantsmustconsiderarangeofuse

caseandapplicationscenarios,identifyingthe

mostappropriatetomatchtheirpropositions.

Therearefouremergingarchetypes,eachof

Exhibit3

Themarketforautomotivecomputeunitswillseevaryinglevelsof

valuegrowth.

Automotivecomputeunitsmarket,$billion

ECU¹

DCU²

ZCU³

CCU⁴

CAGR

20232030,%

139

130

+6%perannum

19

45

44

121

9

13

113

3

2

106

6

1

102

1

97

3

2

2

31

39

44

29

–2

91

24

15

19

1

11

7

82

84

85

83

82

79

77

73

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

1

Electroniccomputeunits.

Domaincomputeunits.

Zonalcomputeunits.

Centralcomputeunits.

2

3

4

Source:McKinseyCenterforFutureMobility

4

Gettingreadyfornext-generationE/Earchitecturewithzonal

Competitivedynamicsalongthe

valuechain

circuitparametermonitoring.Theapproach

providesanewwaytocontrolandmeasure

powerflow,andfacilitatesthepoweringonand

offofspecificfeatures,ratherthanthewhole

vehicle.Asaresult,customerscanexpect

longerrangesandimproveddatainsights.

AstheyconsiderhowbesttoconfigureE/E

architecture,valuechainparticipants,including

chipmakers,tier-1players,andOEMsneedto

makejudgementsacrossseveraldimensions.First,

theymustunderstandwhatdomainswillbemost

impacted,andwhatwillchangeandnotchange

inthemovetozonalorcentralcontrollers.From

astrategicperspective,decisionmakersmustbe

clearonwheretheyarebestequippedtoplay.This

willlaythegroundworkforaplanonhowtomost

productivelyengage.

—

I/Oaggregatorswithcomputingcapabilities:

Thezonalcontrollermayprovidecomputing

capabilities,whichareparticularlyrelevantin

thecontextofemergingsatellitesensors—in

whichthe(simple)physicalsensorisseparated

fromthecomputeunitthatprocessesitsraw

signals.Theseparationmeanssimplersensors

canbereplacedrelativelyinexpensivelyifthey

failoraredamagedbyimpacts,forexample,to

bumpers.Meanwhile,theexpensiveprocessing

unitisoutofharm’swayinthebodyinterior.

Thevariousvehicledomainshavedifferent

requirements.Thebody,thepowertrain,andthe

chassisaremostsuitableforzonalcontrollers,

whichconsolidatefunctionalityinareasthat

typicallyrelyonalargersetofdistributedECUs,

sensors,andactuatorsatthemechanicalrimofa

vehicle(Exhibit4).

—

I/Oaggregatorswithcomputingcapabilities

andpowercontrol:Anadvancedzonal

controllerwouldcombinealltheabove-

mentionedfeaturesandvariations.Thisisthe

highest-costoption.Still,53percentofexperts

inarecentMcKinseysurveysaiditislikelyto

emergeasthedominantmodelovertime.¹

ADAS/ADandinfotainmentdomains,bycontrast,

requiresignificantlymorecomputepowerthanzonal

controllerscanprovide.Thus,thesearelikelytobe

implementedthroughacentralordedicateddomain

Exhibit4

Eachautomotivedomainhasdistinctrequirements.

Requirementsbydomain

Zonalcomputeunits

Domain/centralizedcomputeunits

Domains

Body

Powertrain

Chassis

ADAS/AD¹

Infotainment

Typical

functionality

•Climatecontrol

•Interior/exterior

lighting

•Motorcontrol

•Thermo

management

•Steering

•Suspension

•Brakingsystems

•L2+:ACC,²AEB³•Displaycontrol

•L3:ALKS⁴/traŽc•Audiocontrol

jamchau’eur

•Userapplications

•Seatfunctions

Compute

requirements

Low-medium

High

Low-medium

Low-medium

High

High

Low

Integrationoffunctionalityintozonalcontroller

1

Advanceddriverassistancesystems/autonomousdriving.

2

Adaptivecruisecontrol.

3

Automatedemergencybraking.

Automatedlanekeepingsystem.

4

1

McKinseysurveyconductedaspartofwebinar,“NextgenerationofautomotiveE/Earchitecture:zonalcomputing,”(November2,2022);n=38.

Gettingreadyfornext-generationE/Earchitecturewithzonal

5

computeunit.Connectivityalsodemandsaseparatedecade.ChipletsseparatetheSoCintocomposite

unit,duemainlytocybersecurityrequirementsand

itsroleinprocessingOTAupdates.

parts,creatingthepotentialtobuildmorepowerful

chipsfromsmaller,standardizedbuildingblocks.

Thisensureshigheryieldsandcombatissuessuch

asthereticlelimitinextremeultraviolet(EUV)

lithography.

Asaresultofthedifferentrequirementsof

eachdomain,zonalandcentralcomputeE/E

architectureswillneedtobebuiltonarangeof

softwarestacks(forexample,AUTOSARClassic,

AUTOSARAdaptive,oratailoredRTOS).Service-

orientedarchitecturewillplayakeyrole,especially

forzonal,domain,andcentralcomputeunits,and

will,forinstance,supportflexibilityinsoftware

functiondeployment.Asaresult,theimportance

ofautomotivemiddlewaresolutionsandplayers

willrise,despitethefactthattheyarenon-

differentiatingforcustomers.

ForIDMsorfablessplayersandwaferfoundries,

capacityreservationswillbecomemorecommon.

Thesewillincreasetransparencyonplanning

horizonsandstrengthensupplychainresilience.

Weexpectfoundriestoincrementallybecome

moreactiveinautomotive,reflectingthesector’s

predicted11percentannualdemandgrowth

(CAGR)upto2030.Meanwhile,OEMswillengage

moreactivelywithelectronicsmanufacturing

services(EMS)playersandoriginaldesign

manufacturers(ODMs)astheydiversifytheir

suppliernetworks.

Aszonalandcentralcomputeunitsconsolidate

functionalityacrossseveraldomains,thetransition

tonext-generationE/Earchitectureswilllikely

acceleratethedissolutionoffunctionalsiloes

andboostresearchintoend-to-endcustomer

functionality.Tier-1playersandOEMswillneedto

collaboratemoredeeply,startingwithcommon

softwarearchitectureandmiddlewaresolutions,

butalsothroughjointdevelopmentteamsinagile

settingstoensurefrequentreleases.Thiswillbe

enabledbymorestringenthardwareandsoftware

separationandleveragingbestpracticeinsystems

engineering.Withcross-domainapplications

runningonzonalcontrollers,OEMswillneedto

investevenmoreinsoftwareintegrationand

validation.

AsOEMsturnincreasinglytoin-sourcingforE/E

architecture,tier-1swillneedtocompetehardin

architecturedesignandimplementation.Theycan

differentiatebybuildingreferencearchitectures

andshowcasingtheircapabilities.OEMscould

alsofocusoncustomizationofspecificchipsand

accumulatingknow-howtoenabletailoring,for

exampleintheADAS/ADdomain.ForIDMsthis

maycreateanopportunityforco-innovation

andmarketingofcutting-edgetechnologies.

Oneimpactwilllikelybemoredirected-buy

arrangements,disruptingtraditionalvaluechain

dynamics.

Acrosstheindustry,weexpecttoseetheformation

ofnewecosystems,alliances,andstandards,

especiallyfornon-differentiatingelementsofthe

automotivehardwareandsoftwarestack.

Acrosstheboard,softwareskillsetswillbecritical

enablers.Amidintensecompetition,companies

thattakeastrategicapproachtohiringand

retentionwilllikelygetaheadoftheirpeers.

Meanwhile,semiconductorplayerswillhavetheir

ownpriorities.Intellectualproperty(IP)/electronic

designautomation(EDA)andfablessoperatorsmay

increasinglyfocusonscalablecomputeplatf