(new)5.20 kuliah slides 马来西亚 实用外交学 课件

Chosen

Presentations

on

ASEAN

20

May

2014Topic

B1

ASEAN

(Political)Group

2012

(2)

-

whole

set

of

slidesGroup

2013

(2)

-

only

on

Neo-realism

ofpower

balancingTopic

B2

ASEAN

(Economic)Group

2012(1)-only

on天时，地利，人和Group

2012(1)-only

on

GMS大湄公河MCT

01Why

is

South

China

Sea

Getting

So

Hot?MCT

02Rich

inresources:fuel

(oil

&

gas)&

food

(fish,etc)

Strategicseaway

–

2ndbusiest

inworld

Big

&

smallpower/geo-politics,positioningposturing装腔作势1945End

of

WWII

–

Japan

navy

withdrew

from

islands1947ROC

Govt(民国政府)drew

dotted

lines

to

claimsovereignty

over

all

islands

in

South

SeaSan

Francisco

Convention

on

Post-War

Japan

(CNnot

invited):

Japan

abandoned

control

ofZhongsha,

Nansha

but

these

not

returned

to

CN19511951PRC

lodged

formal

protest

against

SFC(to

continue)南海九段线The

U-Line

(Dotted

Lines)

in

South

Sea

(1)MCT

03南海九段线The

U-Line

(Dotted

Lines)

in

South

Sea

(2)MCT

041966Malaysia

started

oil

&

gas

drilling1973S-VN

navy

took

islands,

CN

recaptured1979CN-VN

border

war1982UN

Convention

on

Law

of

the

Sea

–

then

EEZ,Continental

Shelf2002CN

&

ASEAN

signed

DOC

(Declaration

on

theConductO)

in

South

China

Sea

–

working

towardsa

COC

(Code

of

Conduct)for

China

Claims

on

South

Sea

IslandsHistoric

Waters历史性水域by

Taiwan

KMT

govt,butnot

administered

nor

inhabited;also

not“inland”sbays…)–point

abandoned

by

KMT

1998Maritime

Boundary海上疆域线--but

offcial

claims

so

far

on

islands,

not

entire

seaIslands

ownership

Line岛屿归属线–as

geographic

“short

note”

to

indicate

ownership“Might

is

Right”

doctrine军力即权利–Military

might

to

occupy

‘justifies’

ownership

righMCT

05南洋南海South

Sea蓝海

或

红海

?(1)Red

SeaNanyang

Historical

Context

A

:

(a)

Names

recorded

in

ChineseAnnals

since 2C

BC;

(b)

Chinese

fishermen

visited

Historical

Context

B

:

CN

had

occupied

Mainland

SEAMM

etc.),

but

not

“Yellow

Peril”

vs

“White

Peril”Not

because

navy

not

strong

enough,but

concept/policyof

vassal

state(藩属)without

conquestMCT

06MCT

07Direct

/

Indirect

ClaimantsRelations

w

CNRelations

w

US

&

OthersVN--

deteriorating++

leaning

to

USPH--

worsening+++

dependent

on

USMY++

still

good+

balancing,

neutralB+

OK,

low-key+

balancing,

neutralID+

OK,+

balancing,

US-leaningMCT

08South

Sea

:

China

&

ASEAN

Countries

(2)Non-ClaimantsRelations

w

CNRelations

w

US

&

OthersMM++

dependento+

opening

upTH++

friendly++

balancingKH+++

grateful+

opening

upLA++

dependento+

opening

upSG++

positive++

balancing,

pro-USMCT

09Malaysia’s

Actions

on

Nansha

Islands1966

-

79Announced

‘Continental

Shelf’

[200m]

&Started

oil

&

gas

exploration1979

•

Map

included

12

islets

&

reefs

in

Nansha1982

•

Signed

UN

Law

of

Sea,

’84

passed

EEZ

Act1983Set

up

military

posts

on

islets

&

developedStart

of

visits

by

top

leadersWent

thru’

ASEAN

–

DOC

&

Cooperated

with

Brunei

in

exploration2000MCT

010Malaysia’s

Position

on

Settling

S.

Sea

DispuEmphasise

on

joint

development

–

with

VN,

BNBilateral

talks

prefered

but

3rd

party

(Internationalarbitration)

as

last

resort

–

eg

with

ID,

SGLeverage

on

ASEAN

&

UN

frameworksLow-profile

settlement

of

minor

disputesIndonesia’s

Position

(Not

in

direct

dispute)Protect

Natuna

islands

&

sea

(resources)Act

as

ASEAN’s

Big

BrotherMCT

011The

3

G’s

inChina-US

RelationsGlobalization经济

(Economic)全球化China’s

huge

marketUS’s

huge

debts

&

tradedeficits

to

ChinaPush

for

WTO

&

TPPAGGeopolitics

地缘

(Pol/Security)政治MCT

012Western

Pacific

(Japan..S.

China

Seas

(ASEAN)Global

PositioningOvernance

Wisdom(政治)治理智慧Diplomacy

vs

MilitaryDealing

w

Domestic

ForcesRising

NationalismTriangular

Relations

三角关系

(1)General中国China美国USA日本JapanBlue

Ocean

Strategy

蓝海共

Red

Sea

Rivalry红海恶斗东海East

Sea南海South

SeaASEANCountries东盟国家MCT

013Triangular

Relations

三角关系

(2)

Specifics中国China美国USAGovernance

Wisdom越南VN菲律宾PHGlob-EconomicsMCT

014Geo-politics南海

South

SeaTriangular

Relations

三角关系

(3)

VietnamMCT

015中国China美国USAPast过去HistoryFriend

/

Foe‘foe’

(w

French)IdeologyFriend

(Socialism)Foe

(Capitalism)Viet

War/sFriendFoePresentEcon

/

TradeFriendFriendSouth

SeaFoeFriendFuture????No

permanent

Friend

&

Foe

没有永远的敌友??“ASEAN

+

N”

versus

TPPAWTOASEAN

+

N

FTATPPA

*ASEAN

taking

thelead

to

negotiate*

Trans-

Pacific

Prospartnership

vsAgreement

ConsUS

–

ledCanadaAus

–NZMexicoPeruChileJapanSingaporeMalaysiaVietnamBruneiRussia

refused

China

watchingMCT

016Strategic

Triangular

Affair

of

China,

US

&

AsianStrategic

Triangular

Affair

ofChina,

US

and

ASEAN中,美及东盟策略三角关系17MCT

020Malaysia

Close

to

China

&

USA(No.1

&

No.3

TradingPartner)

大马和中美关系紧密

(属大马第一和第三贸易伙伴)

中国China18MCT

020美国US马来西亚MalaysiaMalaysia

is

pivotal

inASEAN-CHINA,

ASEAN-US

Relation大马在东盟与中美

三角关系中举足轻重SouthThailand泰南Sumatera印尼苏岛NCER北马经济走廊槟厦友好城市(1993)Within

Big

Triangles,

Concrete

Economic

CooperationThrough

Small

Triangles

or

Bilateral

Links大三角之内推动小三角广实东现经济福建合作广州Guangzhou厦门XiamenIndonesia-Malaysia-Thailand

Growth

Triangle印马泰发展三角州直透航线推动经济合作及旅游Direct

Air

LinkCrucial

for

EconomicCooperation

&

TourismPenang槟城19MCT

020吉隆坡KualaLumpurNanning北海港口（Beihai

Port）关丹

Kuantan马中关丹产业园区Msia-China

KuantanIndustrial

ParkAirlink航空Sealink海路需要建立直递交通联系

Need

to

develop

direct

link航空Air:关丹Kuantan–南宁Nanning海运Sea:关丹Kuantan–北海BeihaiWithin

Big

Triangles,

Concrete

Economic

CooperationThrough

Small

Triangles

or

Bilateral

Links大三角之南内宁推（推（广动西小.钦三州角）实现中经马钦济州合产作业园区Msia-China

QinzhouIndustrial

Park20MCT

020“搞”三角关系:拼多元商机Working

With

Corridors

与发展走廊共同前进M’sian

大马

Corridor走廊NCER北马走廊ECER东海岸走廊Iskandar依斯干达ASEAN

LinkIMT-GTIndo-ChinaSingaporeChina

LinkXiamen

&GuangzhouNanning

&Be