普标前瞻：进入印度时刻

LookForward

India’sMoment

Volume3|August2023

urworldisinthemidstof

anunprecedentedperiodoftransitionanduncertainty,butonefactthatunitesallobserversisthatIndiafacesadefiningopportunityto

capitalizeonthismoment.

Economicallyandpolitically,therearefewglobalissues

O

thatcanbesolvedwithoutthecooperationofIndia,a

factthatishighlightedbythecountry’sagendaforits

presidencyoftheG20in2023.

Asinourprevious

LookForward

reports,ouranalystshaveleveragedtheirdeepsectorandgeographicknowledgeaswellasourdataandinsightstotakeadeepdiveintoaspecific

subject.Thistime,welookattheopportunities,risksandpotentialforIndiatostrengthenitsclaimtobeatrueglobalsuperpowerinthenext10years.

Wehopethisresearchwillhelpourcustomersaroundtheworldunderstandoneofthemost

dynamicandfast-changingcountriesonEarth.Fromenergytransitiontotheglobaleconomy,agriculturetotransportation,supplychainstotechnologicalinnovation,Indiaisatthecenterofitall.However,theroadaheadisfarfromstraight,andnavigatingitwillrequiredecision-makingthatconsidersavastarrayofpotentialscenarios,bothathomeandglobally.

ThisreporthasbeenorganizedbytheS&PGlobalResearchCouncil,whichisfocusedon

thekeyglobalthemesofenergysecurity,climateandsustainability,technologyanddigitaldisruptions,supplychains,capitalmarketsandgeopoliticalshocks.Thefoundationofthereportistheworkwedoeverydaytodeliveressentialintelligencetoourcustomersandthemarket—onIndiaandonothertopicsthatmatter.

CRISILisdrivenbyitsmissionofmakingmarketsfunctionbetterasIndia’sforemostproviderofratings,data,research,analyticsandsolutions.ThisreportalsoshowsthevalueofbeingpartofS&PGlobalasitmarrieslocalexpertisewithglobalperspectivesandleveragescapabilitiesacrosstheorganization.

AmishMehta

ManagingDirector&CEO,CRISIL

2LookForwardJournalAugust2023

India’sMoment

Asthe

worldfindsitselfinthemidstofdisruption

,everyoneiswatchingIndia.

ThecountryischairingtheG20undertheslogan“OneEarth,OneFamily,One

Future,”reflectinghowtheyearsaheadwillbedefinedbysharedglobalchallengesincludingeconomicgrowth,climaterisk,theenergytransition,traderelationships,disruptivetechnologiesandpandemics.

Countriesacrossthedevelopmentandpoliticalspectrumareadopting

pragmatism

tonavigatetheheightenedrisksandexpandedopportunitiesofthenextdecade.Followingthistrend,Indiawillcooperateacrossspheresofmutualinterestand

competewherenationalinterestscollide.Torisetothismoment,Indiahasset

ambitioustargetsforitself—bothinthedomesticarenaandontheglobalstage.

Athome,India’srealizedandunrealizedpotentialwillcontinuetoreflectthesuccessesandprospectsofitsdiversestatesand

theirrelationshipwiththeconstitutionallystrongcentralgovernment.Themacrochallengeinthedecadeaheadwillbetoachievesustainedhigh,stableandinclusivegrowth,whichhasthusfarbeenelusive.

Ontheglobalstage,Indiahopestobeaguidingforceforemergingeconomiesonthejourneytowardnet-zeroemissions.DevelopingcountrieswillbewatchingasIndiatriestobalancethegoalsofachievinghighgrowthandreducingthecarbonintensityofitseconomy.

Indiawillneedtoadeptlyutilizebothmultilateralandbilateralrelationships.Itwillrelyuponestablishedanddiversemultilateralaffiliations,suchastheQuadrilateralFramework,BRICS,theG20andtheUNFrameworkConventiononClimateChange,to

transitionfrombeinga“balancingpower”tobecominga“leadingpower.”Thecountrywillalsoleverageemergentbilateraltradingrelationships,includingwiththeUSandAustraliaaswellascountriesintheMiddleEastandAfrica.

AparamounttestwillbewhetherIndiacanbecomethenextbigglobalmanufacturinghub,animmenseopportunity.Developing

astronglogisticsframeworkwillbekeyintransformingIndiafromaservices-dominatedeconomyintoamanufacturing-dominantone.Unlockinglabormarketpotentialwilllargelydependuponupskillingworkersandincreasingfemaleparticipationinthe

workforce.SuccessinthesetwoareaswillshapeIndia’sabilitytorealizeitsdemographicdividend,particularlywiththepopulationprojectedtogrowoverthenextdecade.AboomingdomesticdigitalmarketcouldalsofuelexpansioninIndia’shigh-growthstartupecosysteminthedecadeahead,especiallyinfinancialtechnologyandconsumertechnology.Intheautomotivesector,Indiais

poisedforgrowth,buildingoninfrastructure,investment,innovationandinclusiveness.

ThiseditionofS&PGlobal’sLookForwardJournalshinesthespotlightonIndiaanditspotentialoverthecomingdecadeasthe

countrycontendswithmultipleoverlappingtransitions.WiththeworldeagerlywatchingIndianavigatemultidimensionalchangesineconomics,energy,logistics,technologyanddemographics,thefuturerestsontheshouldersofitspeople.

Dr.LindsayNewman

Dr.AtulArya

ExecutiveDirector,HeadofGeopoliticalThoughtLeadership,

ChiefEnergyStrategist,

S&PGlobalMarketIntelligence

S&PGlobalCommodityInsights

lindsay.newman@

Co-chair,S&PGlobalResearchCouncil

atul.arya@

DeepaKumar

HeadofAsia-PacificCountryRisk,

PaulGruenwald

S&PGlobalMarketIntelligence

GlobalChiefEconomist,

deepa.kumar@

S&PGlobalRatings

paul.gruenwald@

3LookForwardJournalAugust2023

Contents

TheS&PGlobalResearchCouncilhasidentifiedtrendsandthemesthatoffer

opportunitiesandchallengesforourcompanyandcustomers.Eachofthearticlesbelowcorrespondstooneofour2023KeyThemes.

Clickheretolearnmore

.

FutureofCapitalMarkets

India’sFuture:TheQuestforHighandStableGrowth

Sustainability&Climate

5

India’sDemographicDividend:TheKeyto11

UnlockingItsGlobalAmbitions

InterviewwithDr.V.AnanthaNageswaran,ChiefEconomicAdvisortotheGovernmentofIndia

InterviewwithDharmendraPradhan,India’sMinisterofEducation,SkillDevelopmentandEntrepreneurship

GeopoliticalShocks

CooperationandCompetition:India’sEvolvingCenter-StateDynamics

BalancingEnergySecurityandEnergyTransition

22

17

India’sEnergyTransition:MoreEnergy,FewerEmissions

InterviewwithHardeepSinghPuri,India’sMinisterof

HousingandUrbanAffairs&PetroleumandNaturalGas

Trade,Resources&SupplyChains

‘MakeInIndia’ManufacturingPushHingesonLogisticsInvestments

Trade,Resources&SupplyChains

28

35

BiggerandGreener:TheChanging

LandscapeofIndianMobility

InterviewwithSunitaNarain,DirectorGeneral,

CentreforScienceandEnvironment

Trade,Resources&SupplyChains

FutureFarming:Agriculture’sRoleinaMoreSustainableIndia

FutureofCapitalMarkets

41

UnlockingIndia’sCapitalMarketsPotential46

DigitalDisruption

StartupsRidingDigitalInfrastructureCouldTransformIndianEconomy

Sustainability&Climate

52

57

WithPhysicalClimateRisksIncreasinginIndia,AdaptationStrategiesTakePriority

4LookForwardJournalAugust2023

India’sFuture:

TheQuest

forHighand

StableGrowth

AchievinghighandsustainablegrowthhasbeenelusiveforIndia;successwillrequirereaping

thedemographicdividend,boostingprivateinvestmentandincreasingcompetitiveness.

PaulGruenwald

GlobalChiefEconomist,S&PGlobalRatings

paul.gruenwald@

DharmakirtiJoshi

ChiefEconomist,CRISIL

dharmakirti.joshi@

RajivBiswas

Asia-PacificChiefEconomist,S&PGlobalMarketIntelligence

rajiv.biswas@

Highlights

ThemacrochallengeforIndiain

theupcomingdecadeistoturn

traditionallyunevengrowthinto

ahighandstabletrend.Given

structuraldifferenceswithEast

Asianeconomies,Indiawillneedto

followitsownuniquepath.

Capitalaccumulationwill

driveIndia’seconomytoward

thisdesirablepath,withthe

governmentand,increasingly,

theprivatesectorinvestingin

infrastructureandmanufacturing.

Digitalinfrastructureisanother

potentialdriverofhighgrowth.

Successwillultimatelydepend

onIndia’sabilitytoreapits

demographicdividend;increase

laborforceparticipation,

includingupskilling;boostprivate

investment,withstructural

reformsinland,logisticsandlabor;

andincreasecompetitiveness,

drivenbyforeigndirect

investment.Geopoliticscould

provideconsiderabletailwinds.

I

ndiahascomeoutofthepandemicreasonablywell,withGDPgrowth

of7.2%infiscalyear2023(endedMarch2023).Expansionmaycoolto

6%infiscal2024duetoaglobalslowdownandthelaggedeffectof

policyratehikesbytheReserveBankofIndia,accordingtoS&PGlobal.

Evenatthisrate,Indiawillbethefastest-growingeconomyintheG20.

Thetrillion-dollarquestioniswhetherIndiacansustainhighgrowth.Thatis,canitreplicate

theperformanceoftheEastAsiantigersoverrecentdecadesandimprovetheprospects

andopportunitiesforitslargeandgrowingworkforce?Importantly,India’seconomyis

moredomesticallydrivenandservices-orientatedthantheEastAsiantigers,soitspathto

successwillhavetobedifferent.

5LookForwardJournalAugust2023

FutureofCapitalMarkets

Liberalizationreforms

Asianfinancialcrisis

Investment&globalboom

Domesticdemandrevival

Financialsectorstress

COVID-19

UpsandDownsofGrowthSinceLiberalization

GDPgrowthYOY(%)

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

-2

-4

-6

199019921994199619982000200220042006200820102012201420162018202020222024

Fiscalyear

DatacompiledMay31,2023.

Sources:NationalStatisticalOffice,GovernmentofIndia;CRISIL.

©2023S&PGlobal.

Decade-AheadForecast

Ouranswertothesustainedgrowthquestionisa

conditional“yes.”WeexpectIndiatogrow6.7%per

yearfromfiscal2024tofiscal2031,catapultingGDPto$6.7trillionfrom$3.4trillioninfiscal2023.PercapitaGDPwillrisetoabout$4,500.

CapitalaccumulationwillbethedominantdriverofIndiangrowth.InvestmentasaproportionofGDPreacheda10-yearhighof34%infiscal2023.Thegovernmenthasplayedakeyroleinboostinginvestmentbyofferingsubstantialsupportfor

infrastructureprojectsandbyincentivizing

manufacturing.WeexpecttheIndianprivatesectortograduallyincreaseinvestmentsgivenhealthy

corporatebalancesheets.

Theimportanceofcapitalismadeclearusinggrowthaccounting.Weexpectcapitaltocontribute53%ofIndia’s6.7%averageGDPgrowththroughtheend

ofthedecade.Thatdwarfsa17%contributionfrom

labor,theothermainfactorofproduction.Increases

inproductivitywillgenerate30%ofGDPgrowth.

Thegrowthcontributionfromproductivitywillbe

higherthaninpreviousperiodsduetothecreation

of

physicalanddigitalinfrastructure

inconjunction

withefficiency-enhancingreforms.Indiawilllikely

seefurtherefficiencygainsfromreformssuchas

theintroductionofthe

GoodsandServicesTax

.

FurtherprogressinimplementingtheInsolvencyand

BankruptcyCodewouldalsohelptodriveahealthy

creditculture.

Physicalanddigitalinfrastructureenhancementswill

supportgrowth.Physicalinfrastructureis

improving

connectivityandloweringlogisticscostsforindustries

.

Digitalinfrastructurewillcontinuetospeedinnovation

,

improvepaymentsystemsandreduceleakagesfrom

governmentsubsidytransfers.Moreover,Indiahas

useditsG20presidencytohighlightitsdigitalpublic

infrastructuresuccessandtoencourageactionon

enhancingfinancialinclusioninothercountries.

6LookForwardJournalAugust2023

FutureofCapitalMarkets

2%

BalanceofManufacturingandServicesinGDPandExports

EvenwithIndiarecalibratingtowardmanufacturing,serviceswillmaintainastrong

roleintheeconomy.Thecountryneedstokeepasharpfocusonbothsectorsas

eachhasopportunitiesindomesticandexportmarkets.Inmanufacturing,

new

growthavenuesmayemergefromanacceleratingglobaltrendtowardsupplychain

diversification

,thegovernment’sProduction-LinkedIncentive(PLI)schemesand

improvingphysicalinfrastructure.Servicesectorgrowthwillbedrivenbydomestic

demandaswellasglobaloutsourcing.

TheIndianconsumermarketwillmorethandoubleby2031,surgingto$5.2trillion

from$2.3trillionin2022,accordingtoS&PGlobalMarketIntelligence’sGlobal

ConsumerMarketsService.Thisrapidexpansionreflectsagrowingpopulationand

increasinghouseholdincomes.Consumerspendingonfoodwillriseto$1.4trillion

by2031from$615billionin2022.Spendingonfinancialserviceswillclimbto$670

billionfrom$280billion.Higherpercapitaincomeswillalsolikelyboostdiscretionary

spendinginareassuchasentertainment,communications,restaurantsandhotels.

Services’shareofGDPwillcontinuetorise,alongwithmanufacturing.Gains

forserviceswillbefueledbyexportsininformationtechnologyandIT-enabled

services,alongwithdomesticsectorssuchasretail,foodservices,trading,

financeandhealthcare.ThequestioniswhetherIndiacangenerateemployment

andproductivitygrowthfromservicesatlevelssimilartothoseonceachievedby

manufacturingcountriesinEastAsia.

ServiceswillremainIndia’sexportgrowthengine.Thesector’sshareoftotalexports

hasalreadyrisento42%infiscal2023fromabout30%infiscal2012.Weexpectthis

trendtocontinue,reflectingthegovernment’slatesttradepolicy(2023)settinga

targettoboostoverallexportsto$2trillionby2030.Risingcomfortwithremote

workworldwideandthegrowthofglobalcapabilitycentersinIndiawillstoke

servicesexports.

ServicesToRemainIndia’sKeyGrowthEngine

%shareofGDP

FY2023

Manufacturiinng

18%

Ohtrer

Services

54%

Ser5v4ic%es

FY2031

Manufacturing

Otherr25%

Manu2f0aturing

20%

56%

56%

Servicices

DatacompiledMay24,2023.

Sources:CentralStatisticsOffice,GovernmentofIndia;CRISILforecasts.

©2023S&PGlobal.

7LookForwardJournalAugust2023

FutureofCapitalMarkets

ThequestioniswhetherIndiacangenerateemploymentand

productivitygrowthfromservicesatlevelssimilartothoseonce

achievedbymanufacturingcountriesinEastAsia.

IngredientsforDecadeofMacroSuccess

Indiahasseenagood,ifuneven,recordofgrowthoverthepastthreedecades.Expansionhascomeinfitsand

starts,andithasgenerallybeenlowerandlesssustainedthanintheEastAsiantigereconomies.Thechallenge

overthenextdecade—andbeyond—willbetocreatetheconditionsforsustainedgrowth.Achievingthiswilllikelyrequirestructuralreformsinthreekeyareas.

1)Raiselaborparticipation,especiallyamongwomen,andboostskills.

Indiaisfailingtotakefulladvantageofitslargeandgrowingworking-age

population.

Upskillingworkersandincreasingthenumberofpeopleholdingjobs

willboostgrowth

.Laborforceparticipationwasjust55.2%in2022,andonly

about32.8%amongwomen,accordingtothegovernment’sPeriodicLabour

ForceSurvey.Someoftheattemptsbeingmadetoderegulatelabormarketsat

thestatelevelcouldalsoimproveparticipationandefficiency.

2)Liftprivateinvestmentinmanufacturing.

India’sdomesticmarketisthethirdlargestworldwideinpurchasingpower

parityterms,whichprovidesopportunitiesforgrowthinprivatemanufacturing.

Expandingmanufacturinghasbeenalong-standingaspirationforthecountry.

Still,manufacturing’sshareofGDPhasonlyrisentoabout18%from15%overthe

pasttwodecades.Bycontrast,services’sharehasleaptto55%from45%.

Manufacturinghasbeenheldbackbystringentlaborlaws,subparlogisticsand

poorinfrastructure.Theauthoritiesarefast-forwardinginfrastructureandlogistics

developmentsinabidtoeasebottlenecks.Laborlawsandtheland-acquisition

processarealsobeinggraduallyeased.

India,likeagrowingnumberofeconomies,isusinganinterventionistindustrial

policytoattractmanufacturinginvestment.ItsPLIschemescover15sectors,such

aselectronics,automobiles,steel,renewablesandpharmaceuticals.

3)BolsterexternalcompetitivenessthroughFDI.

Indiahasbecomeanincreasinglyattractivelocationformultinationalsacrossarangeofindustries.Grossforeigndirectinvestment(FDI)

inflowsreachedarecord$84.8billioninfiscal2022

,accordingtotheMinistryofCommerceandIndustry.FDIinflowsintomanufacturingsurged76%thatyeartomorethan$21billion.GrossFDIinflows

werejust$4.3billioninfiscal2004.Technology-relatedFDIhasbecomeanimportantsourceofinvestment.The

computersoftwareandhardwaresectorwasthelargestrecipientofFDIinflowsinfiscal2022.

Amassivedomesticmarket,alongwithgraduallyimprovingglobalcompetitiveness,ishelpingIndiadrawforeign

investment.Thecountryhasoneofthelargestdomesticmarketsworldwide,andgrowthispoisedtosurpassmostotheremergingnations.

GrowthinFDIinflowsoverthepastdecadehasboostedIndia’sforeign-exchangereservesandhelpedtoloweritsexternalaccountvulnerability.

8LookForwardJournalAugust2023

FutureofCapitalMarkets

Learnmore

Riderinthestorm

Safezonevibes

CreditRatioedgesup,someheadwindsahead

IndiaForeignDirectInvestmentsHaveSurgedSince2000(US$B)

84.8

9.7

34.8

41.9

37.7

46.6

36

60.2

6162

74.4

82

70.9

55.6

45.2

34.8

34.3

22.8

6.1

46.154.3

2.2

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Amassivedomestic

market,along

withgradually

improvingglobal

competitiveness,is

helpingIndiadraw

foreigninvestment.

DatacompiledMay24,2023.

Source:ReserveBankofIndia.

©2023S&PGlobal.

LookingForward:Geopolitics

Geopoliticscanpotentiallyprovideconsiderable

tailwindsforIndia’sgrowthefforts.Thecountryisin

agoodgeopoliticalposition,whichwillhelpitbenefit

fromsupplychaindiversificationandreshoring.This

willlikelybolsterothergrowth-enhancingstrengths,

particularlycompetitiveness.

Still,geopoliticalvolatilitycanbeachallenge.India

ispursuingapragmaticapproach,

cooperating

andcompetingtoserveitsnationalinterest

.This

meansitisnavigatingchangingpartnershipsandan

evolvinglandscape.Deglobalizationandprotectionist

measureswillalsocreatesomeheadwindsfor

exports.Tradepartnershipscouldhelptomitigate

someoftheseeffects..

S&PGlobalkeepscertainactivitiesofitsbusinessunitsseparatefromeachotherinordertopreservetheindependenceandobjectivityoftheirrespectiveactivities.Asaresult,certainbusinessunitsofS&PGlobalmayhaveinformationthatisnotavailabletootherS&PGlobalunits.S&PGlobalhasestablishedpoliciesandprocedurestomaintaintheconfidentialityofcertainnon-publicinformationreceivedinconnectionwitheachanalyticalprocess.

Thisarticlewasauthoredbyacross-sectionofrepresentativesfromS&PGlobalandincertaincircumstancesexternalguestauthors.Theviewsexpressedarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsorpositionsofanyentitiestheyrepresentandarenotnecessarilyreflectedintheproductsandservicesthoseentitiesoffer.ThisresearchisapublicationofS&PGlobalanddoesnotcommentoncurrentorfuturecreditratingsorcreditratingmethodologies.

9LookForwardJournalAugust2023

Q&A

Dr.V.AnanthaNageswaran

ChiefEconomicAdvisortotheGovernmentofIndia

WhatisIndia’sgrowthtarget,andhowdoyouplantoachieveit?

TheIndianeconomy,inrealterms,needstogrowannuallyat7%to7.5%until2030.Onthesupplyside,theshare

ofmanufacturingintotalgrossvalueaddedhasto

increasefrom16%atpresenttoatleast25%ofGDPat

theexpenseofagricultureandlow-value-addedservices.

Onthedemandside,grossfixedcapitalformation,orinvestment,needstoincreasefromabout28%ofGDPtoatleast35%.Tofundtheincreasinginvestment,thedomesticsavingsratewillneedtobeabout36%of

GDP.Developmentofthemanufacturingsectorandthenatureofdemandwillgeneratesignificantemploymentopportunities,facilitatebusinessopportunities

andimproveoverallgrowthpotential.This,inturn,willreducepovertyandincreasetheequitabilityofincomedistribution.

WhichareashavehighgrowthopportunitiesforIndia?

ThemanufacturingsectorisakeygrowthareathatIndianeedstoexploit,givenitscomparativeadvantagein

termsofskilledlabor,improvedphysicalinfrastructure,well-establishedindustrialecosystemandlargedomesticmarket.Keyindustriesshouldbeidentifiedtoreap

demographicdividendsandtotakeadvantageofforeigncompanies’desiretodiversifytheirsupplychains.

Thecompositionofservicesshouldchangeinfavorofhigh-value-addedservices,asthiswillimproveearningsbyattractingforeigndemand.Hospitalityisonearea

wherehigh-value-addedservicesneedtobedeveloped.

Anotherishealthcareandelderlycare,including

traditionalandmodernmedicines.Theelderlycaresectorhasshownstronggrowthinadvancedeconomieswithanadversedependencyratio.Indiacanreapthebenefitsofthisbecauseofitsfavorabledemographics.

Highereducationisafurthertargetforgrowinghigh-

value-addedservices.LeastDevelopedCountries

representthelargestshareofincominginternational

studentsinIndiabecauseofourpricecompetitiveness.

However,Indianeedstoexpanditshighereducation

institutionsbyencouragingcompetitionand

improvingquality.

Achievingrapidgrowthinhigh-endmanufacturingand

high-value-addedservicesrequiresanoverarchingand

supportiveecosystem.Thismeansthereisasustained

paceofexpansionindigitalinfrastructure,alongwith

significantupscalingofresearchanddevelopmentinboth

thepublicandtheprivatesector.Italsorequiresaskilled

andtech-savvyworkforce.

HowcanIndiaboostinvestments?

Theinvestmentrate(grossfixedcapitalformation/GDP)

needstoincreasefromabout29%toatleast35%.The

privatesector,includingforeigndirectinvestment,must

driveuptheinvestmentrateasthegovernmenthas

limitedfiscalspace.Keystepsinachievingthisinclude

thedevelopmentofthedomesticcorporatebondmarket,

aswellasdeployingwell-targetedfiscalincentivesto

attractinvestment.Governmentinvestmentsshould

focusoninfrastructureandpublicgoodsthatwillfurther

facilitateandstimulateprivate-sectorinvestment.

Netexportsalsoneedtoimprovefromaboutnegative

3.7%ofGDPtoamorebalancedfigure.Thiscanbedone

bycreatingexportmarketsforhigh-endmanufacturing

andhigh-value-addedservices.

Whatwillittaketoincreasethesavingsrate

inIndia?

Ahigherinvestmentrateandsmallercurrentaccount

deficit(owingtoimprovednetexports)shouldcreate

ahighersavingsrate.Theincreasealsodependson

inflationremainingundercontrol,asthiswillminimizethe

pressureonhouseholdbudgets.Thegovernmentneeds

toshowfiscalprudence.Therealsoneedstobeefforts

toimprovefinancialinclusionandfinancialliteracyto

facilitatetheunderstandingandapplicationoffinancial

instrumentsinsavingsandinvestmentdecisions..

10LookForwardJournalAugust2023

India’s

Demographic

Dividend:

TheKeyto

UnlockingIts

GlobalAmbitions

AbundantlaborsupplywillfuelIndia’snear-term

growth,butupskillingandtheinclusionofwomenwillbecrucialinreachingthenation’seconomicpotential.

Highlights

India’sshort-termeconomic

growthwillstandontheshoulders

ofits678.6millionstrong

laborforce,asestimatedby

S&PGlobalMarketIntelligence,

butlabormarketreformscould

helptounlocksustainable

long-termgrowth.

Thenation’sambitionstobecome

aglobalmanufacturinghub

arecloselylinkedtoitsability

toupskillworkers.Progressis

alreadyunderway,asnearly

10

millionyouthbenefit

fromtheSkill

Indiaprogramannually.

Gettingmorewomentoenter

theworkforcewillbepivotal

forfuturegrowth,asonly24%

wereparticipatingin2022,

accordingtoInternationalLabour

Organizationestimates.

SophieMalin

SeniorEconomist,PricingandPurchasing,

S&PGlobalMarketIntelligence

sophie.malin@

AshimaTyagi

EconomicsAssociateDirector,PricingandPurchasing,

S&PGlobalMarketIntelligence

ashima.tyagi@

I

ndia,hometo1.4billionpeople,hassurpassedmainlandChinatobecomethe

world’smostpopulouscountry,accordingtoUNestimates.ThisgivesIndia

potentialadvantages,especiallyatatimewhencountriesaroundtheworldare

facingdecliningbirthratesandtightlabormarkets.S&PGlobalMarketIntelligence

forecaststhatIndia’spopulationwillcontinuegrowingoverthecomingdecade.TheUN

estimatesthatIndia’spopulationwillnotbegintodeclineforanotherfourdecades.

India’sabundantlaborforcemakesitwellplacedtoachievedomesticgrowthgoalsandtocapitalizeon