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ThisisanexcerptfromBloombergNEF’s
2023ElectricVehicleOutlook.
Tofindoutmoreabout
the
fullreport,pleasecontact
our
team.ExecutiveSummaryThetransportation
andautomotivesectorsare
undergoingaperiodofprofoundtransformation.Electrificationis
nowspreadingrapidly
in
almostallsegmentsofroadtransport,frompassengercarstocommercialvehicles,busesandtwo-andthree-wheelers.Eachcountryhasitsownuniquemixofvehiclesand
whileprogressvariesacrossthem,theoveralldirectionoftravelisincreasinglyclear.730millionNumber
ofpassengerEVsontheroadin2040intheEconomicTransitionScenarioTechnologychanges
areatthecoreofthistransitionasbatteryprices
havefallendramaticallyoverthelastdecade.Batterypricesroseforthefirsttimein
2022butinnovationintheareaisnot
slowingdown,withadvancesin
areaslikesolid-statebatteries,next-generationcathodeandanodechemistries,andsodium-iontechnologyallreachingcommercializationin
thenextfewyears.2029Yearroad
transportemissionspeak$1.9trillionYettechnologychangesalonearenotenoughto
keeptheroadtransportsector
on
trackfornet-zeroemissionsby
mid-century.Policymakershaveanimportantroletoplayindrivingtheautomotivemarkettowardzero-emissions
options,improvingfuelefficiency,gettingthepowersystem
readyfor
electricvehicles,andinreducingoverallcardependency.Eliminatingemissionsfrom
roadtransportwillrequireallhands
ondeck,includingautomakers,batterymanufacturers,chargingcompanies,gridoperators,miners,largefleet
operatorsandconsumers.Charginginfrastructuremarketopportunitybetweentodayand2050intheEconomicTransitionScenarioAsmomentumgrows,neweconomicopportunities
are
takingshape.Batteriesandelectricvehicleshavetakencenterstageinnewdiscussionsonindustrialpolicy,withcountries
nowcompetingtoattractinvestmentandbuildnew
clustersofhigh-valuemanufacturing.Meanwhile,regulatorsandgridoperatorsarelookingatwaystoensureEVsbenefitthepowersystem.Electrificationis
notthe
onlyvectorofchange.Sharedmobility,vehicleconnectivityand,eventually,autonomousvehicles
arealsosetto
reshapeautomotiveandfreightmarketsaroundtheworld.Urbanizationalsocontinuesitssteadymarch,leadingto
increasedconcernsaroundvehicle
congestionandurbanairquality.Thisreport
drawsonBloombergNEF’s
teamofsectoralandregionalexpertsaroundtheworld.Itupdatesour
outlookforhowroadtransportcouldevolveoverthenext
30years.ItincludesanalysisonEV
adoptionin
passengervehicles,commercialvansandtrucks,two-andthree-wheeledvehicles
andbusesglobally.Italsolooksatotherdrivetrains,includinghybrids,naturalgasandfuelcells,andthenexploresthe
resultingimpactsofalloftheseonelectricitymarkets,oildemand,batterymaterials,charginginfrastructureandCO2emissions.Thekeyfindingsareasfollows:•Directelectrificationviabatteriesis
themostefficient,cost-effectiveandcommerciallyavailableroutetofullydecarbonizingroad
transport.
Fuelcellvehiclesplayaroleinsomehard-to-electrifylong-haultruckingapplicationsbut
playno
meaningfulrolein
theNoportionofthisdocumentmaybereproduced,scannedintoanelectronicsystem,distributed,publiclydisplayedor
usedas
thebasisof
derivativeworkswithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofBloombergFinanceL.P.
Formoreinformationon
termsofuse,
pleasecontactsales.bnef@.CopyrightandDisclaimernoticeonpage22
applies
throughout.1©BloombergFinanceL.P.2023passengervehiclemarket.
Syntheticfuelsdo
not
arrive
at
scale
in
timeorat
apricepointneededto
haveamaterialimpact
on
roadtransport.•EVsales
continuetosurgein
thenextfew
years,risingfrom10.5millionin2022toalmost
27millionin2026.TheEVshareofglobal
new
passenger
vehiclesalesjumpsfrom14%in2022to
30%in
2026.Sharesin
somemarketsaremuchhigher,withEVsreaching52%of
salesinChinaand42%inEurope.SomeEuropean
carmarketsmoveevenfaster,withtheNordicsat89%andGermanyat59%.IntheUS,amajor
pushfromtheInflationReductionActmeans
EVs
makeupnearly28%
ofpassengervehiclesalesby
2026,upfrom7.6%
in2022.TheEVadoptiongap
betweenwealthyandemergingeconomiescontinuestogrowin
thenearterm,
but
Japansignificantlylagsother
wealthycountries.Thefleetgrowsevenfaster,
risingfrom27
millionpassenger
EVson
theroadattheendof2022to
over100millionby
2026.Figure1:Globalnear-termpassengerEVsalesandshareofnew
passengervehiclesales
bymarketMillion3025201510560%50%40%30%20%10%0%26.622.417.514.110.56.53.22.0
2.21.10.70201620212026201620212026China
Europe
US
Japan
Canada
S.Korea
SoutheastAsia
Australia
India
RestofWorld
GlobalSource:BloombergNEF.Note:EuropeincludestheEU,theUKandEFTAcountries.EV
includesBEVsandPHEVs.••Combustionvehiclesaleshavepeaked.
Salesofinternalcombustionvehiclespeakedin2017
and
arenowinlong-termdecline.By2026,salesof
combustionvehiclesare39%lowerthantheir
peakin2017.
Thecombustionvehiclefleet
peaksin
2025.Thelong-termpictureis
gettingbrighter,butchallengesremain.EVs
reach44%
ofglobalpassengervehiclesalesby2030and
75%
by2040
in
ourEconomicTransitionScenario.Afterincreasingrapidlyfrom2022to
2035,EVsalesgrowthslowsdown
slightlyinthelate2030sinthe
mainEVmarketslikeEurope,
ChinaandtheUS
astheybegintosaturate.Althoughpubliccharginginfrastructure
is
growingat
paceglobally,it
stillpresentsapotentialbarrierto
electrifyingthelast10-20%of
the
marketin
manycountries.While
EVsalesexhibitatraditional‘S-curve’for
adoption,eachcountryandregion
startsonthistrajectoryatdifferent
times.The
variedstart
timeandslowdownpointsbetweencountriesmean
that
the
globalaverage
appears
morelinearthananyindividualcountry.
DespiterapidEVadoption,
lessthan
50%
of
theglobal
passenger
vehiclefleetiselectricby
2040.Noportionofthisdocumentmaybereproduced,scannedintoanelectronicsystem,distributed,publiclydisplayedor
usedas
thebasisof
derivativeworkswithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofBloombergFinanceL.P.
Formoreinformationon
termsofuse,
pleasecontactsales.bnef@.CopyrightandDisclaimernoticeonpage22
applies
throughout.2©BloombergFinanceL.P.2023Figure2:Globalpassenger
vehiclesalesby
drivetrain
–Figure3:Globalpassenger
vehiclefleetby
drivetrain
–EconomicTransitionScenarioEconomicTransitionScenarioMillionBillion1.61.41.21Batteryelectric1009080706050403020100InternalcombustionPlug-inhybridHybrid0.80.60.40.20HybridPlug-inhybridInternalcombustionBatteryelectric2022202520302035204020202025203020352040Source:BloombergNEF.Source:BloombergNEF.•Electrificationis
now
spreadingquicklyto
allareas
ofroadtransport.
LightcommercialEVsalesaresettorisequicklydueto
attractiveeconomics,more
modelsavailable,growingfleet
commitmentsand
citypolicies,reaching
almost70%of
globalsalesby
2040,led
byChina.Theeconomicsof
electric
heavy
trucks
improverapidlythroughoutthe2020sandbecomeascheapas
dieselequivalentsevenfor
long-haulapplications.
However,fuelcostsstillmatter
andnaturalgasremainseconomicallycompetitive.Fuelcelltruckcostsdeclineaswell,butuncertaintyontheirtrajectoryis
high.
Overallroad
freight
demandrises46%
from2020to
2040,highlightingtheneedforcompetitivezero-emissionsoptionsin
thissegment.Municipalbusesarealsoelectrifyingquickly.Europeand
the
USbeginto
catchupwithChinainthismarketandEVs
reach36%and24%of
municipalbussalesrespectivelyby
2026.Two-and
three-wheeledvehiclesalesalsocontinuetorisein
emergingeconomiesandaresetto
be
almostallelectricgloballyby
2040.Figure4:
Totalcost
ofownershipofheavy-dutytruckin
long-hauldutycyclein
2030$/km0.80.7Diesel0.60.50.40.30.20.10.0NaturalgasBatteryelectricFuelcellUSChinaGermanySource:BloombergNEF.Note:Theheavy-dutytruckis
modeledon
aClass8vehiclewith
800kilometersofreal-worlddrivingrange.Noportionofthisdocumentmaybereproduced,scannedintoanelectronicsystem,distributed,publiclydisplayedor
usedas
thebasisof
derivativeworkswithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofBloombergFinanceL.P.
Formoreinformationon
termsofuse,
pleasecontactsales.bnef@.CopyrightandDisclaimernoticeonpage22
applies
throughout.3©BloombergFinanceL.P.2023•Reachingnet-zeroroad
transportemissions
by2050is
still
possiblebutmuchfasterprogressis
needed.Thegap
betweenBNEF’sEconomicTransitionScenarioandtheNetZeroScenarioissmaller
thaninanyof
ourpreviousprojections.Thisis
due
to
newstrongerpolicysupportintheUS,earlyEVprogressin
afewemergingeconomieslikeIndia,ThailandandIndonesia,growingglobal
investmentin
charginginfrastructureandthe
batterysupplychain,andtechnologyinnovationslikesodium-ionbatteries.Astrongerpushis
stillneeded.
Heavytrucksinparticular
arefarbehindthe
net-zerotrajectoryandshouldbe
apriorityfocusforpolicy
makers.Gridinvestments,gridconnectionsandpermittingprocessesalso
needto
be
streamlinedto
supportthelargenumberofchargingpointsneededforthetransition.Table1:Roadtransport
segmentprogresstowardnet
zeroSegmentCurrentshareofroadtransportCurrentZero-emissionvehicle(ZEV)Level
ofpolicyinterventionestimated
fleetsharein2050
–
Economic
needed
tohitNetZeroScenarioCO2emissions
globalfleetsizeTransitionScenario(100%
ZEVshare)by
2050Three-wheeledvehicles<1%119
million95%OntrackTwo-wheeledvehicles5%1%1billion3.5million165
million1.3billion82million78%
Almoston
track:minoradditionalmeasuresneededMunicipalbuses87%
Almoston
track:minoradditionalmeasuresneededLight
commercialvehicles11%53%30%76%70%32%Positive
trajectory:moderateadditionalmeasuresneededPassenger
vehiclesPositive
trajectory:moderateadditionalmeasuresneededMedium+heavycommercialvehiclesNotontrack:strongadditionalmeasuresneededurgentlySource:BloombergNEF,variousgovernmentsources.Note:
Fleet
sizerepresentsvehiclesofalldrivetraintypesand
areestimatesbasedon
varioussourcesand
BNEFdata.Somevaluesrounded.Currentemissionsandfleetsizedataarefor2022.•Theshift
toelectrificationcreatesavery
largeeconomic
opportunity.
The
cumulativevalueofEV
salesacrossallsegmentshits$8.8trilliondollarsby2030and
$57
trillionby2050
intheEconomicTransitionScenario.Thisjumpstoover$88
trillionby
2050intheNetZeroScenario.EVs
andbatteriesarenowacentralpartof
manycountries’industrialpolicyand
competitionto
attractinvestmentis
likelytoincreasein
thecomingyears.Figure5:Cumulativeglobal
EVmarketopportunitybyregion
–
EconomicTransitionScenario2030204020509%16%3%2%22%31%35%$30.1
trillion21%43%3%21%$8.8trillion24%3%
$56.7
trillion3%20%21%22%IndiaChinaUS2
23E%1u%rope3%JapanOtherSource:BloombergNEF.Estimatesarecumulativespendingstartingin2023.Dollarsareinreal2022.Noportionofthisdocumentmaybereproduced,scannedintoanelectronicsystem,distributed,publiclydisplayedor
usedas
thebasisof
derivativeworkswithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofBloombergFinanceL.P.
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termsofuse,
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applies
throughout.•Largeinvestmentsareneeded
inallareasofthe
batterysupplychain.
Annuallithium-batterydemandgrowsrapidly,
approaching5.7TWhannuallyby2035inourEconomicTransitionScenario.Meetingthisdemandrequires
largebutachievableincreasesinmaterials,componentsand
cellproduction.
Thereis
over7.4TWhof
nameplate
cellmanufacturingcapacityplannedby2025.Thisismore
thanprojecteddemandinthesameyear,
but
actualexcesssupplywillbelowerdueto
varyingutilizationrates,commissioningdelaysand
abandonments.Increasingly,governmentsandautomakersare
seekingto
localizetheirrespectivesupplychainsthroughanumber
ofpoliciesrangingfromdirectsubsidiestobattery‘passports’.Sustainedinvestment
willberequiredinthe
secondhalfof
thedecadeto
keepupwithdemand.At
least$188
billionneedsto
beinvestedinbatterycellandcomponentplantsbytheendof
the
decade.Figure6:Annualbattery
factoryinvestment
by
scenario$billion8058.96057.244.4SeparatorsElectrolytesCathodesAnodes4027.823.5200Batterycells20222023-302031-402023-302031-40ActualETS-yearlyNZS-yearlySource:BloombergNEF.Note:ETS=EconomicTransitionScenario.NZS
=NetZeroScenario.Batteryfactoryrequirements
includeinvestmentneededto
meetEVdemandas
wellas
stationaryenergystorage.UndertheNetZeroScenario,newdemandfor
lithium-ion
batteriesis
1.7timesthatof
ourEconomicTransitionScenario,reaching244TWhcumulativelyby
2050.
Thanksto
increasingreservesand
areductionin
usein
batteries,cobaltandnickel
reserves
are
now
enoughtosupplybothourEconomicTransitionand
NetZeroScenarios.Lithiumlooksmore
challengingand
currentlyknownreserveswouldbedepletedinourNetZeroScenarioevenwithrecycling.Newbatterychemistriesandreductionsin
packsizescanhelpoffsetthispressure.
Scalingnewresourcedevelopmentandrefiningcapacitywill
be
keyto
keepupwithdemandin
anygivenyear.Noportionofthisdocumentmaybereproduced,scannedintoanelectronicsystem,distributed,publiclydisplayedor
usedas
thebasisof
derivativeworkswithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofBloombergFinanceL.P.
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termsofuse,
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applies
throughout.Figure7:Annualmetalsdemandfromlithium-ionbatteriesunder
theNet
ZeroScenarioMillion
metric
tons602022
vs
2050Cobalt3x29x22x26xManganesePhosphorusIron50403020100GraphiteNickel5x9xLithium22x12x16xAluminumCopper2020202520302035204020452050Source:BloombergNEF.Note:Lithiumis
expressedinmillionmetrictonslithiumcarbonateequivalent(LCE).Demandoccursat
theminemouth,oneyearbeforebatterydemand.
Multiplesbetween
2022and2050arebasedon
annualdemandinthegivenyear.•Oildemandfrom
roadtransportisverynearitspeak.Electricvehiclesofalltypesarealreadydisplacing1.5millionbarrels/dayof
oil
demand.Thisrisesdramaticallyin
the
yearsahead,leadingto
apeakin
overallroadfueldemandin
2027.Demandinthe
USand
Europehasalreadypeaked,
whiledemandinChinais
set
topeak
in2024.Globaloildemandfromtwo-wheelers,three-wheelers
andbuseshasalsoalreadypeakedand
demandfrompassengercarsisset
topeakin2025.Commercialvehiclestakelongerto
shiftas
heavytruckscontinuetorelyon
dieselto
moveboomingfreightdemand.Figure8:Globaloildemand–
EconomicTransitionScenario
Figure9:Oil
demandfromroadtransportbyscenarioMillionbarrelsperday120Million
barrels
per
day6010080604020050403020Peakdemand:2027:Roadtransport2027:Transport2029:GlobaloilOthersectorsOthertransportEconomic
TransitionScenario100RoadtransportNet
ZeroScenario2000201020202030204020502021203020402050Source:BloombergNEF.Note:Includesbiofuels.Source:BloombergNEF.Note:Includesbiofuels.IntheEconomicTransitionScenario,oildemandfromroadtransportdeclinesto
33.5millionb/din2040,some21%lowerthan2022levels.Fuelefficiencyimprovement
ofcombustionvehiclesandtheuptakeof
sharedmobilityalsoplayan
importantroleinreducingoildemand.Noportionofthisdocumentmaybereproduced,scannedintoanelectronicsystem,distributed,publiclydisplayedor
usedas
thebasisof
derivativeworkswithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofBloombergFinanceL.P.
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applies
throughout.Thefallinoildemanddoes
not
necessarilymeanacollapseinoil
prices.Ifinvestmentsinnewsupplycapacityfallfasterthandemand,prices
couldremainelevatedandvolatile.TheNetZeroScenarioseesa
muchsharper
declineinoildemandenroutetoafullphase-outfromroadtransportin2050.•Additional
electricitydemandfromEVsis
partof
abroaderelectrificationpushtoreachnetzero.Globalelectricitydemandfromalltypesof
EVsincreasesfivetimesfrom210TWhin
2022to
1,027TWh
in2030intheEconomicTransitionScenario,beforeafurthertriplingindemandto
3,251TWhin
2040.EVsadd
about14%toglobalelectricitydemand
in2050
intheEconomicTransitionScenario,butonly12%
intheNetZeroScenariodespitemore
vehiclesontheroad.This
is
becausetheNet
Zero
Scenarioincludesadditionalelectricitydemandfromelectrificationofheating,industryandelectrolyzer
useforhydrogenproductionusedinother
sectors.
For
more,see
ourNewEnergyOutlook
(web|terminal).Insomefast-growingcountrieslikeIndiaEVs
addjust
9-10%to
totalelectricitydemand.Over$1
trillionin
cumulativeinvestmentin
EVcharginginfrastructureis
requiredgloballyoverthisperiod.Therearegrowingreasonsforoptimismthatthis
can
be
achieved,withsomecountriesnow
buildingchargersaheadoftherequiredpace.Therequiredchargerinvestmentisstillsmallcomparedtooverallautosales.
Forexample,Chinarequires$453billionofcumulativeinvestmentin
charginginfrastructureto
2040,comparedto
automotivesalesrevenuefromdomesticcar
salesandexportsof$750billionin
2022alone.Figure10:Electricitydemandoutlookforselectedregionsby
scenarioGlobalChinaUSETSNZSETSNZS10%ETSNZSTWh70,00060,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,0000TWhTWh9,00018,00014%12%15,00012,0009,0006,0003,000013%14%6,0003,000020%20202050
2020Europe205020202050
2020Germany205020202050
2020India2050ETSNZSETSNZSETSNZSTWh8,000TWh1,500TWh8,0006,0004,0002,000018%10%13%6,0004,0002,00001,000500024%9%27%20202050
20202050202020502020205020202050
20202050GeneraldemandElectricvehicleelectricitydemandSource:BloombergNEF.Note:UsesgeneralelectricitydemandprojectionsfromBNEF’sNewEnergyOutlook2022.Thisisfinalenergyconsumptionandexcludesanylossesintransmission.Percentagesreferto
percentageof
EVelectricitydemandof
total
in2050.NetZeroScenario
includesadditionaldemandfromelectrificationof
heating,industry,andelectrolyzer
use
for
hydrogen.Noportionofthisdocumentmaybereproduced,scannedintoanelectronicsystem,distributed,publiclydisplayedor
usedas
thebasisof
derivativeworkswithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofBloombergFinanceL.P.
Formoreinformationon
termsofuse,
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applies
throughout.•Thisyear’sEVOutlookincludesfive
newThematic
Highlights,eachofwhich
exploresadifferentpartof
the
transitionin
vehiclemarketsaroundthe
world.The
topicsare:–––EVpriceparityunderdifferentbatterypricescenariosWillaverageEV
rangeskeeprising?Emergingbatterytechnologies:sodium-ion
batteries,solid-statebatteries,
and
next-generationanodetechnologies––High-poweredchargingfortruckingfleetsTheimpactof
autonomousvehicles•EVpriceparityis
gettingcloserbutprogressvaries
bysegmentandcountry.
Pricesforlithium-ionbatteriesincreasedforthe
firsttimein2022and
arelikelyto
remainelevatedin2023.
Thisdelays
theupfrontprice
parityofbatteryelectricvehicleswithcombustioncars.Despitethenear-termincrease,EVsstillreachup-front
priceparitywithcomparablecombustionvehicles,withoutsubsidies,by
theendof
the
decadein
mostsegments.Even
inBNEF’sbase-casescenario
thereis
awidevariation
inpurchaseeconomics
betweengeographies,dictatedby
thedifferencesin
theaveragebatterysizeofBEVssoldor
howprice-sensitiveanygivencarmarketis.WhileelectricSUVs
inEuropestart
achievingpriceparityas
earlyas2025,BEVsin
the
samesegment
in
Indiadonot
hit
parityuntilafter2030,dueto
verylowaveragepurchasepricesinthesesegments.Larger
batteriesin
USelectriccarsmeanthatupfrontpriceparityin
thecountryisone
tothreeyearslaterthanforBEVsinEurope.Acceleratingbattery-packpricedeclines–usingan
18%
learningratescenario
–pushesupfront
priceparityof
EVsforwardby
an
averageofoneto
twoyears.Delayingitusinga16%learningratescenariowouldsettheindustrybackbyan
averageoftwoto
threeyears.
Ifpricesremainelevatedfor
longer,EVadoptionwillslow.Regardlessofthescenariodiscussed,regionaldifferencesremain,andthosewilldictatethe
paceof
electrificationandthetypeofBEVsadoptedin
eachregion.Figure11:Impactof
lithium-ionbattery
learningratescenarioson
year
ofpriceparitybetweenEVsandcombustionvehiclesbyregionandsegmentEuropeUSSmallSmallMediumLargeSUVMediumLargeSUV20202025203020352020202520302035Range16%lithium-ionbatterylearningrateBasecase18%lithium-ionbatterylearningrateSource:BloombergNEF.Note:Dotsrepresentyear
of
up-frontpriceparitywithoutsubsidies.Priceparityyearfor
base-caseoverlapswiththe16%learningratescenariofor
largeandSUVsegments
in
Europe,SUVin
US
andSUVinJapan.Noportionofthisdocumentmaybereproduced,scannedintoanelectronicsystem,distributed,publiclydisplayedor
usedas
thebasisof
derivativeworkswithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofBloombergFinanceL.P.
Formoreinformationon
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pleasecontactsales.bnef@.Copyrightand8©BloombergFinanceL.P.2023Disclaimernoticeonpage22
applies
throughout.•AverageEVrangesarerising
quickly,addingpressureto
thebatterysupplychain.Globally,BEV
modelslaunchedin
2022
had
an
averagerangeof337kilometers,
up
from230kmin2018.
Averagebatterypacksizeshaveincreased10%annuallyoverthisperiod,going
from40kWhto60kWh.Still,rangesremainbelow
consumerexpectationsin
mostmarketsand
segments,
promptingautomakerstolaunchlonger-range
modelsto
easerangeanxiety.Continuedimprovementsinbatteryandpowertraintechnologiescouldquicklypushrangeupto
consumer
expectations,whileimprovedcharger
densityand
chargingspeedcouldreducerangerequirementsinthelongterm.IncreasingBEVrangeswillfurtherboostdemandfor
lithium-ionbatteriesas
EVadoptionaccelerates,puttingmorepressureonthebatterymaterialssupply.AnannualBEVrangeincrease
of
5%inChina,theUS
andEurope
from2023to
2030
wouldadd
nearly50%moredemandforlithium,nickelandcobaltin
thosemarkets,comparedto
our
basecasescenariowhereBEVranges
remain
flat.ThiswouldalsopushoutthedateforEVpriceparity.
Wideadoptionofadvancedbatterytechnologiesandrecyclingcouldhelpmitigatematerialssupplyconstraintswhileenablingautomakerstodeliver
longBEVranges.
Governmentsshoulddirectinvestment
towardsupportingdensepublicchargingnetworksas
acost-effectivewaytohelpavoidan
EVrange‘armsrace’Figure12:Lithium-ion
batterydemandforpassengerBEVs
Figure13:Lithium
demandforpassengerBEVsin
China,inChina,the
USandEuropeby
batterypacksizescenariotheUSandEuropeby
batterypack
size
scenarioGWhThousand
metric
tons
LCE2,5005,000Base
casescenario4,0003,0002,0001,0000Basecasescenario2,0001,5001,000500GrowthscenarioGrowthscenarioDeclinescenarioDeclinescenarioHistoricalHistorical020222025203020352022202520302035Source:BloombergNEF.Note:Growthscenarioassumes5%
growthinaverageBEVrangefrom2023
to2030.
Declinescenarioassumes2%annualdeclinein
averagerangefrom2025onwards.
Includeslithiumcarbonateand
lithiumhydroxide.•Severalimportant
next-generationbatterytechnologiesareenteringthecommercializationphase.
Thesewilldrivefurtherperformanceand
costimprovements.Improvementsinbatteryenergydensityto
datehavebeendrivenbyadvancesin
cathodematerials,suchas
the
movetowardchemistrieswithhighernickelcontent.Next-generationtechnologiesincludingsiliconanodes,solid-statebatteriesandsodium-ionbatterieswill
bringfurther
improvementsin
performanceandcost.Theywillalsoshiftraw
materialsupplychains.
The
nextgenerationanodetechnologiesinourbasecasedisplace46%of
graphite
in2035
comparedwithan
all-graphitescenario.Similarly,inour
basecasesodium-ioncellsdisplace7%of
lithiumdemandin2035,comparedto
anosodium-ion
scenario.However,inthecaseof
solid-statebatteries,BNEFestimatesthat45%to130%
morelithiumwouldbeneededon
abattery-celllevelif
thesolid-stateelectrolytewereto
substituteboththeliquidelectrolyteand
separator.
Solidelectrolytescontainmorelithiumdueto
sl
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