全球EV展望2023年-英_第1页
全球EV展望2023年-英_第2页
全球EV展望2023年-英_第3页
全球EV展望2023年-英_第4页
全球EV展望2023年-英_第5页
已阅读5页,还剩17页未读 继续免费阅读

下载本文档

版权说明:本文档由用户提供并上传,收益归属内容提供方,若内容存在侵权,请进行举报或认领

文档简介

ThisisanexcerptfromBloombergNEF’s

2023ElectricVehicleOutlook.

Tofindoutmoreabout

the

fullreport,pleasecontact

our

team.ExecutiveSummaryThetransportation

andautomotivesectorsare

undergoingaperiodofprofoundtransformation.Electrificationis

nowspreadingrapidly

in

almostallsegmentsofroadtransport,frompassengercarstocommercialvehicles,busesandtwo-andthree-wheelers.Eachcountryhasitsownuniquemixofvehiclesand

whileprogressvariesacrossthem,theoveralldirectionoftravelisincreasinglyclear.730millionNumber

ofpassengerEVsontheroadin2040intheEconomicTransitionScenarioTechnologychanges

areatthecoreofthistransitionasbatteryprices

havefallendramaticallyoverthelastdecade.Batterypricesroseforthefirsttimein

2022butinnovationintheareaisnot

slowingdown,withadvancesin

areaslikesolid-statebatteries,next-generationcathodeandanodechemistries,andsodium-iontechnologyallreachingcommercializationin

thenextfewyears.2029Yearroad

transportemissionspeak$1.9trillionYettechnologychangesalonearenotenoughto

keeptheroadtransportsector

on

trackfornet-zeroemissionsby

mid-century.Policymakershaveanimportantroletoplayindrivingtheautomotivemarkettowardzero-emissions

options,improvingfuelefficiency,gettingthepowersystem

readyfor

electricvehicles,andinreducingoverallcardependency.Eliminatingemissionsfrom

roadtransportwillrequireallhands

ondeck,includingautomakers,batterymanufacturers,chargingcompanies,gridoperators,miners,largefleet

operatorsandconsumers.Charginginfrastructuremarketopportunitybetweentodayand2050intheEconomicTransitionScenarioAsmomentumgrows,neweconomicopportunities

are

takingshape.Batteriesandelectricvehicleshavetakencenterstageinnewdiscussionsonindustrialpolicy,withcountries

nowcompetingtoattractinvestmentandbuildnew

clustersofhigh-valuemanufacturing.Meanwhile,regulatorsandgridoperatorsarelookingatwaystoensureEVsbenefitthepowersystem.Electrificationis

notthe

onlyvectorofchange.Sharedmobility,vehicleconnectivityand,eventually,autonomousvehicles

arealsosetto

reshapeautomotiveandfreightmarketsaroundtheworld.Urbanizationalsocontinuesitssteadymarch,leadingto

increasedconcernsaroundvehicle

congestionandurbanairquality.Thisreport

drawsonBloombergNEF’s

teamofsectoralandregionalexpertsaroundtheworld.Itupdatesour

outlookforhowroadtransportcouldevolveoverthenext

30years.ItincludesanalysisonEV

adoptionin

passengervehicles,commercialvansandtrucks,two-andthree-wheeledvehicles

andbusesglobally.Italsolooksatotherdrivetrains,includinghybrids,naturalgasandfuelcells,andthenexploresthe

resultingimpactsofalloftheseonelectricitymarkets,oildemand,batterymaterials,charginginfrastructureandCO2emissions.Thekeyfindingsareasfollows:•Directelectrificationviabatteriesis

themostefficient,cost-effectiveandcommerciallyavailableroutetofullydecarbonizingroad

transport.

Fuelcellvehiclesplayaroleinsomehard-to-electrifylong-haultruckingapplicationsbut

playno

meaningfulrolein

theNoportionofthisdocumentmaybereproduced,scannedintoanelectronicsystem,distributed,publiclydisplayedor

usedas

thebasisof

derivativeworkswithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofBloombergFinanceL.P.

Formoreinformationon

termsofuse,

pleasecontactsales.bnef@.CopyrightandDisclaimernoticeonpage22

applies

throughout.1©BloombergFinanceL.P.2023passengervehiclemarket.

Syntheticfuelsdo

not

arrive

at

scale

in

timeorat

apricepointneededto

haveamaterialimpact

on

roadtransport.•EVsales

continuetosurgein

thenextfew

years,risingfrom10.5millionin2022toalmost

27millionin2026.TheEVshareofglobal

new

passenger

vehiclesalesjumpsfrom14%in2022to

30%in

2026.Sharesin

somemarketsaremuchhigher,withEVsreaching52%of

salesinChinaand42%inEurope.SomeEuropean

carmarketsmoveevenfaster,withtheNordicsat89%andGermanyat59%.IntheUS,amajor

pushfromtheInflationReductionActmeans

EVs

makeupnearly28%

ofpassengervehiclesalesby

2026,upfrom7.6%

in2022.TheEVadoptiongap

betweenwealthyandemergingeconomiescontinuestogrowin

thenearterm,

but

Japansignificantlylagsother

wealthycountries.Thefleetgrowsevenfaster,

risingfrom27

millionpassenger

EVson

theroadattheendof2022to

over100millionby

2026.Figure1:Globalnear-termpassengerEVsalesandshareofnew

passengervehiclesales

bymarketMillion3025201510560%50%40%30%20%10%0%26.622.417.514.110.56.53.22.0

2.21.10.70201620212026201620212026China

Europe

US

Japan

Canada

S.Korea

SoutheastAsia

Australia

India

RestofWorld

GlobalSource:BloombergNEF.Note:EuropeincludestheEU,theUKandEFTAcountries.EV

includesBEVsandPHEVs.••Combustionvehiclesaleshavepeaked.

Salesofinternalcombustionvehiclespeakedin2017

and

arenowinlong-termdecline.By2026,salesof

combustionvehiclesare39%lowerthantheir

peakin2017.

Thecombustionvehiclefleet

peaksin

2025.Thelong-termpictureis

gettingbrighter,butchallengesremain.EVs

reach44%

ofglobalpassengervehiclesalesby2030and

75%

by2040

in

ourEconomicTransitionScenario.Afterincreasingrapidlyfrom2022to

2035,EVsalesgrowthslowsdown

slightlyinthelate2030sinthe

mainEVmarketslikeEurope,

ChinaandtheUS

astheybegintosaturate.Althoughpubliccharginginfrastructure

is

growingat

paceglobally,it

stillpresentsapotentialbarrierto

electrifyingthelast10-20%of

the

marketin

manycountries.While

EVsalesexhibitatraditional‘S-curve’for

adoption,eachcountryandregion

startsonthistrajectoryatdifferent

times.The

variedstart

timeandslowdownpointsbetweencountriesmean

that

the

globalaverage

appears

morelinearthananyindividualcountry.

DespiterapidEVadoption,

lessthan

50%

of

theglobal

passenger

vehiclefleetiselectricby

2040.Noportionofthisdocumentmaybereproduced,scannedintoanelectronicsystem,distributed,publiclydisplayedor

usedas

thebasisof

derivativeworkswithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofBloombergFinanceL.P.

Formoreinformationon

termsofuse,

pleasecontactsales.bnef@.CopyrightandDisclaimernoticeonpage22

applies

throughout.2©BloombergFinanceL.P.2023Figure2:Globalpassenger

vehiclesalesby

drivetrain

–Figure3:Globalpassenger

vehiclefleetby

drivetrain

–EconomicTransitionScenarioEconomicTransitionScenarioMillionBillion1.61.41.21Batteryelectric1009080706050403020100InternalcombustionPlug-inhybridHybrid0.80.60.40.20HybridPlug-inhybridInternalcombustionBatteryelectric2022202520302035204020202025203020352040Source:BloombergNEF.Source:BloombergNEF.•Electrificationis

now

spreadingquicklyto

allareas

ofroadtransport.

LightcommercialEVsalesaresettorisequicklydueto

attractiveeconomics,more

modelsavailable,growingfleet

commitmentsand

citypolicies,reaching

almost70%of

globalsalesby

2040,led

byChina.Theeconomicsof

electric

heavy

trucks

improverapidlythroughoutthe2020sandbecomeascheapas

dieselequivalentsevenfor

long-haulapplications.

However,fuelcostsstillmatter

andnaturalgasremainseconomicallycompetitive.Fuelcelltruckcostsdeclineaswell,butuncertaintyontheirtrajectoryis

high.

Overallroad

freight

demandrises46%

from2020to

2040,highlightingtheneedforcompetitivezero-emissionsoptionsin

thissegment.Municipalbusesarealsoelectrifyingquickly.Europeand

the

USbeginto

catchupwithChinainthismarketandEVs

reach36%and24%of

municipalbussalesrespectivelyby

2026.Two-and

three-wheeledvehiclesalesalsocontinuetorisein

emergingeconomiesandaresetto

be

almostallelectricgloballyby

2040.Figure4:

Totalcost

ofownershipofheavy-dutytruckin

long-hauldutycyclein

2030$/km0.80.7Diesel0.60.50.40.30.20.10.0NaturalgasBatteryelectricFuelcellUSChinaGermanySource:BloombergNEF.Note:Theheavy-dutytruckis

modeledon

aClass8vehiclewith

800kilometersofreal-worlddrivingrange.Noportionofthisdocumentmaybereproduced,scannedintoanelectronicsystem,distributed,publiclydisplayedor

usedas

thebasisof

derivativeworkswithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofBloombergFinanceL.P.

Formoreinformationon

termsofuse,

pleasecontactsales.bnef@.CopyrightandDisclaimernoticeonpage22

applies

throughout.3©BloombergFinanceL.P.2023•Reachingnet-zeroroad

transportemissions

by2050is

still

possiblebutmuchfasterprogressis

needed.Thegap

betweenBNEF’sEconomicTransitionScenarioandtheNetZeroScenarioissmaller

thaninanyof

ourpreviousprojections.Thisis

due

to

newstrongerpolicysupportintheUS,earlyEVprogressin

afewemergingeconomieslikeIndia,ThailandandIndonesia,growingglobal

investmentin

charginginfrastructureandthe

batterysupplychain,andtechnologyinnovationslikesodium-ionbatteries.Astrongerpushis

stillneeded.

Heavytrucksinparticular

arefarbehindthe

net-zerotrajectoryandshouldbe

apriorityfocusforpolicy

makers.Gridinvestments,gridconnectionsandpermittingprocessesalso

needto

be

streamlinedto

supportthelargenumberofchargingpointsneededforthetransition.Table1:Roadtransport

segmentprogresstowardnet

zeroSegmentCurrentshareofroadtransportCurrentZero-emissionvehicle(ZEV)Level

ofpolicyinterventionestimated

fleetsharein2050

Economic

needed

tohitNetZeroScenarioCO2emissions

globalfleetsizeTransitionScenario(100%

ZEVshare)by

2050Three-wheeledvehicles<1%119

million95%OntrackTwo-wheeledvehicles5%1%1billion3.5million165

million1.3billion82million78%

Almoston

track:minoradditionalmeasuresneededMunicipalbuses87%

Almoston

track:minoradditionalmeasuresneededLight

commercialvehicles11%53%30%76%70%32%Positive

trajectory:moderateadditionalmeasuresneededPassenger

vehiclesPositive

trajectory:moderateadditionalmeasuresneededMedium+heavycommercialvehiclesNotontrack:strongadditionalmeasuresneededurgentlySource:BloombergNEF,variousgovernmentsources.Note:

Fleet

sizerepresentsvehiclesofalldrivetraintypesand

areestimatesbasedon

varioussourcesand

BNEFdata.Somevaluesrounded.Currentemissionsandfleetsizedataarefor2022.•Theshift

toelectrificationcreatesavery

largeeconomic

opportunity.

The

cumulativevalueofEV

salesacrossallsegmentshits$8.8trilliondollarsby2030and

$57

trillionby2050

intheEconomicTransitionScenario.Thisjumpstoover$88

trillionby

2050intheNetZeroScenario.EVs

andbatteriesarenowacentralpartof

manycountries’industrialpolicyand

competitionto

attractinvestmentis

likelytoincreasein

thecomingyears.Figure5:Cumulativeglobal

EVmarketopportunitybyregion

EconomicTransitionScenario2030204020509%16%3%2%22%31%35%$30.1

trillion21%43%3%21%$8.8trillion24%3%

$56.7

trillion3%20%21%22%IndiaChinaUS2

23E%1u%rope3%JapanOtherSource:BloombergNEF.Estimatesarecumulativespendingstartingin2023.Dollarsareinreal2022.Noportionofthisdocumentmaybereproduced,scannedintoanelectronicsystem,distributed,publiclydisplayedor

usedas

thebasisof

derivativeworkswithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofBloombergFinanceL.P.

Formoreinformationon

termsofuse,

pleasecontactsales.bnef@.Copyrightand4©BloombergFinanceL.P.2023Disclaimernoticeonpage22

applies

throughout.•Largeinvestmentsareneeded

inallareasofthe

batterysupplychain.

Annuallithium-batterydemandgrowsrapidly,

approaching5.7TWhannuallyby2035inourEconomicTransitionScenario.Meetingthisdemandrequires

largebutachievableincreasesinmaterials,componentsand

cellproduction.

Thereis

over7.4TWhof

nameplate

cellmanufacturingcapacityplannedby2025.Thisismore

thanprojecteddemandinthesameyear,

but

actualexcesssupplywillbelowerdueto

varyingutilizationrates,commissioningdelaysand

abandonments.Increasingly,governmentsandautomakersare

seekingto

localizetheirrespectivesupplychainsthroughanumber

ofpoliciesrangingfromdirectsubsidiestobattery‘passports’.Sustainedinvestment

willberequiredinthe

secondhalfof

thedecadeto

keepupwithdemand.At

least$188

billionneedsto

beinvestedinbatterycellandcomponentplantsbytheendof

the

decade.Figure6:Annualbattery

factoryinvestment

by

scenario$billion8058.96057.244.4SeparatorsElectrolytesCathodesAnodes4027.823.5200Batterycells20222023-302031-402023-302031-40ActualETS-yearlyNZS-yearlySource:BloombergNEF.Note:ETS=EconomicTransitionScenario.NZS

=NetZeroScenario.Batteryfactoryrequirements

includeinvestmentneededto

meetEVdemandas

wellas

stationaryenergystorage.UndertheNetZeroScenario,newdemandfor

lithium-ion

batteriesis

1.7timesthatof

ourEconomicTransitionScenario,reaching244TWhcumulativelyby

2050.

Thanksto

increasingreservesand

areductionin

usein

batteries,cobaltandnickel

reserves

are

now

enoughtosupplybothourEconomicTransitionand

NetZeroScenarios.Lithiumlooksmore

challengingand

currentlyknownreserveswouldbedepletedinourNetZeroScenarioevenwithrecycling.Newbatterychemistriesandreductionsin

packsizescanhelpoffsetthispressure.

Scalingnewresourcedevelopmentandrefiningcapacitywill

be

keyto

keepupwithdemandin

anygivenyear.Noportionofthisdocumentmaybereproduced,scannedintoanelectronicsystem,distributed,publiclydisplayedor

usedas

thebasisof

derivativeworkswithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofBloombergFinanceL.P.

Formoreinformationon

termsofuse,

pleasecontactsales.bnef@.Copyrightand5©BloombergFinanceL.P.2023Disclaimernoticeonpage22

applies

throughout.Figure7:Annualmetalsdemandfromlithium-ionbatteriesunder

theNet

ZeroScenarioMillion

metric

tons602022

vs

2050Cobalt3x29x22x26xManganesePhosphorusIron50403020100GraphiteNickel5x9xLithium22x12x16xAluminumCopper2020202520302035204020452050Source:BloombergNEF.Note:Lithiumis

expressedinmillionmetrictonslithiumcarbonateequivalent(LCE).Demandoccursat

theminemouth,oneyearbeforebatterydemand.

Multiplesbetween

2022and2050arebasedon

annualdemandinthegivenyear.•Oildemandfrom

roadtransportisverynearitspeak.Electricvehiclesofalltypesarealreadydisplacing1.5millionbarrels/dayof

oil

demand.Thisrisesdramaticallyin

the

yearsahead,leadingto

apeakin

overallroadfueldemandin

2027.Demandinthe

USand

Europehasalreadypeaked,

whiledemandinChinais

set

topeak

in2024.Globaloildemandfromtwo-wheelers,three-wheelers

andbuseshasalsoalreadypeakedand

demandfrompassengercarsisset

topeakin2025.Commercialvehiclestakelongerto

shiftas

heavytruckscontinuetorelyon

dieselto

moveboomingfreightdemand.Figure8:Globaloildemand–

EconomicTransitionScenario

Figure9:Oil

demandfromroadtransportbyscenarioMillionbarrelsperday120Million

barrels

per

day6010080604020050403020Peakdemand:2027:Roadtransport2027:Transport2029:GlobaloilOthersectorsOthertransportEconomic

TransitionScenario100RoadtransportNet

ZeroScenario2000201020202030204020502021203020402050Source:BloombergNEF.Note:Includesbiofuels.Source:BloombergNEF.Note:Includesbiofuels.IntheEconomicTransitionScenario,oildemandfromroadtransportdeclinesto

33.5millionb/din2040,some21%lowerthan2022levels.Fuelefficiencyimprovement

ofcombustionvehiclesandtheuptakeof

sharedmobilityalsoplayan

importantroleinreducingoildemand.Noportionofthisdocumentmaybereproduced,scannedintoanelectronicsystem,distributed,publiclydisplayedor

usedas

thebasisof

derivativeworkswithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofBloombergFinanceL.P.

Formoreinformationon

termsofuse,

pleasecontactsales.bnef@.Copyrightand6©BloombergFinanceL.P.2023Disclaimernoticeonpage22

applies

throughout.Thefallinoildemanddoes

not

necessarilymeanacollapseinoil

prices.Ifinvestmentsinnewsupplycapacityfallfasterthandemand,prices

couldremainelevatedandvolatile.TheNetZeroScenarioseesa

muchsharper

declineinoildemandenroutetoafullphase-outfromroadtransportin2050.•Additional

electricitydemandfromEVsis

partof

abroaderelectrificationpushtoreachnetzero.Globalelectricitydemandfromalltypesof

EVsincreasesfivetimesfrom210TWhin

2022to

1,027TWh

in2030intheEconomicTransitionScenario,beforeafurthertriplingindemandto

3,251TWhin

2040.EVsadd

about14%toglobalelectricitydemand

in2050

intheEconomicTransitionScenario,butonly12%

intheNetZeroScenariodespitemore

vehiclesontheroad.This

is

becausetheNet

Zero

Scenarioincludesadditionalelectricitydemandfromelectrificationofheating,industryandelectrolyzer

useforhydrogenproductionusedinother

sectors.

For

more,see

ourNewEnergyOutlook

(web|terminal).Insomefast-growingcountrieslikeIndiaEVs

addjust

9-10%to

totalelectricitydemand.Over$1

trillionin

cumulativeinvestmentin

EVcharginginfrastructureis

requiredgloballyoverthisperiod.Therearegrowingreasonsforoptimismthatthis

can

be

achieved,withsomecountriesnow

buildingchargersaheadoftherequiredpace.Therequiredchargerinvestmentisstillsmallcomparedtooverallautosales.

Forexample,Chinarequires$453billionofcumulativeinvestmentin

charginginfrastructureto

2040,comparedto

automotivesalesrevenuefromdomesticcar

salesandexportsof$750billionin

2022alone.Figure10:Electricitydemandoutlookforselectedregionsby

scenarioGlobalChinaUSETSNZSETSNZS10%ETSNZSTWh70,00060,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,0000TWhTWh9,00018,00014%12%15,00012,0009,0006,0003,000013%14%6,0003,000020%20202050

2020Europe205020202050

2020Germany205020202050

2020India2050ETSNZSETSNZSETSNZSTWh8,000TWh1,500TWh8,0006,0004,0002,000018%10%13%6,0004,0002,00001,000500024%9%27%20202050

20202050202020502020205020202050

20202050GeneraldemandElectricvehicleelectricitydemandSource:BloombergNEF.Note:UsesgeneralelectricitydemandprojectionsfromBNEF’sNewEnergyOutlook2022.Thisisfinalenergyconsumptionandexcludesanylossesintransmission.Percentagesreferto

percentageof

EVelectricitydemandof

total

in2050.NetZeroScenario

includesadditionaldemandfromelectrificationof

heating,industry,andelectrolyzer

use

for

hydrogen.Noportionofthisdocumentmaybereproduced,scannedintoanelectronicsystem,distributed,publiclydisplayedor

usedas

thebasisof

derivativeworkswithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofBloombergFinanceL.P.

Formoreinformationon

termsofuse,

pleasecontactsales.bnef@.Copyrightand7©BloombergFinanceL.P.2023Disclaimernoticeonpage22

applies

throughout.•Thisyear’sEVOutlookincludesfive

newThematic

Highlights,eachofwhich

exploresadifferentpartof

the

transitionin

vehiclemarketsaroundthe

world.The

topicsare:–––EVpriceparityunderdifferentbatterypricescenariosWillaverageEV

rangeskeeprising?Emergingbatterytechnologies:sodium-ion

batteries,solid-statebatteries,

and

next-generationanodetechnologies––High-poweredchargingfortruckingfleetsTheimpactof

autonomousvehicles•EVpriceparityis

gettingcloserbutprogressvaries

bysegmentandcountry.

Pricesforlithium-ionbatteriesincreasedforthe

firsttimein2022and

arelikelyto

remainelevatedin2023.

Thisdelays

theupfrontprice

parityofbatteryelectricvehicleswithcombustioncars.Despitethenear-termincrease,EVsstillreachup-front

priceparitywithcomparablecombustionvehicles,withoutsubsidies,by

theendof

the

decadein

mostsegments.Even

inBNEF’sbase-casescenario

thereis

awidevariation

inpurchaseeconomics

betweengeographies,dictatedby

thedifferencesin

theaveragebatterysizeofBEVssoldor

howprice-sensitiveanygivencarmarketis.WhileelectricSUVs

inEuropestart

achievingpriceparityas

earlyas2025,BEVsin

the

samesegment

in

Indiadonot

hit

parityuntilafter2030,dueto

verylowaveragepurchasepricesinthesesegments.Larger

batteriesin

USelectriccarsmeanthatupfrontpriceparityin

thecountryisone

tothreeyearslaterthanforBEVsinEurope.Acceleratingbattery-packpricedeclines–usingan

18%

learningratescenario

–pushesupfront

priceparityof

EVsforwardby

an

averageofoneto

twoyears.Delayingitusinga16%learningratescenariowouldsettheindustrybackbyan

averageoftwoto

threeyears.

Ifpricesremainelevatedfor

longer,EVadoptionwillslow.Regardlessofthescenariodiscussed,regionaldifferencesremain,andthosewilldictatethe

paceof

electrificationandthetypeofBEVsadoptedin

eachregion.Figure11:Impactof

lithium-ionbattery

learningratescenarioson

year

ofpriceparitybetweenEVsandcombustionvehiclesbyregionandsegmentEuropeUSSmallSmallMediumLargeSUVMediumLargeSUV20202025203020352020202520302035Range16%lithium-ionbatterylearningrateBasecase18%lithium-ionbatterylearningrateSource:BloombergNEF.Note:Dotsrepresentyear

of

up-frontpriceparitywithoutsubsidies.Priceparityyearfor

base-caseoverlapswiththe16%learningratescenariofor

largeandSUVsegments

in

Europe,SUVin

US

andSUVinJapan.Noportionofthisdocumentmaybereproduced,scannedintoanelectronicsystem,distributed,publiclydisplayedor

usedas

thebasisof

derivativeworkswithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofBloombergFinanceL.P.

Formoreinformationon

termsofuse,

pleasecontactsales.bnef@.Copyrightand8©BloombergFinanceL.P.2023Disclaimernoticeonpage22

applies

throughout.•AverageEVrangesarerising

quickly,addingpressureto

thebatterysupplychain.Globally,BEV

modelslaunchedin

2022

had

an

averagerangeof337kilometers,

up

from230kmin2018.

Averagebatterypacksizeshaveincreased10%annuallyoverthisperiod,going

from40kWhto60kWh.Still,rangesremainbelow

consumerexpectationsin

mostmarketsand

segments,

promptingautomakerstolaunchlonger-range

modelsto

easerangeanxiety.Continuedimprovementsinbatteryandpowertraintechnologiescouldquicklypushrangeupto

consumer

expectations,whileimprovedcharger

densityand

chargingspeedcouldreducerangerequirementsinthelongterm.IncreasingBEVrangeswillfurtherboostdemandfor

lithium-ionbatteriesas

EVadoptionaccelerates,puttingmorepressureonthebatterymaterialssupply.AnannualBEVrangeincrease

of

5%inChina,theUS

andEurope

from2023to

2030

wouldadd

nearly50%moredemandforlithium,nickelandcobaltin

thosemarkets,comparedto

our

basecasescenariowhereBEVranges

remain

flat.ThiswouldalsopushoutthedateforEVpriceparity.

Wideadoptionofadvancedbatterytechnologiesandrecyclingcouldhelpmitigatematerialssupplyconstraintswhileenablingautomakerstodeliver

longBEVranges.

Governmentsshoulddirectinvestment

towardsupportingdensepublicchargingnetworksas

acost-effectivewaytohelpavoidan

EVrange‘armsrace’Figure12:Lithium-ion

batterydemandforpassengerBEVs

Figure13:Lithium

demandforpassengerBEVsin

China,inChina,the

USandEuropeby

batterypacksizescenariotheUSandEuropeby

batterypack

size

scenarioGWhThousand

metric

tons

LCE2,5005,000Base

casescenario4,0003,0002,0001,0000Basecasescenario2,0001,5001,000500GrowthscenarioGrowthscenarioDeclinescenarioDeclinescenarioHistoricalHistorical020222025203020352022202520302035Source:BloombergNEF.Note:Growthscenarioassumes5%

growthinaverageBEVrangefrom2023

to2030.

Declinescenarioassumes2%annualdeclinein

averagerangefrom2025onwards.

Includeslithiumcarbonateand

lithiumhydroxide.•Severalimportant

next-generationbatterytechnologiesareenteringthecommercializationphase.

Thesewilldrivefurtherperformanceand

costimprovements.Improvementsinbatteryenergydensityto

datehavebeendrivenbyadvancesin

cathodematerials,suchas

the

movetowardchemistrieswithhighernickelcontent.Next-generationtechnologiesincludingsiliconanodes,solid-statebatteriesandsodium-ionbatterieswill

bringfurther

improvementsin

performanceandcost.Theywillalsoshiftraw

materialsupplychains.

The

nextgenerationanodetechnologiesinourbasecasedisplace46%of

graphite

in2035

comparedwithan

all-graphitescenario.Similarly,inour

basecasesodium-ioncellsdisplace7%of

lithiumdemandin2035,comparedto

anosodium-ion

scenario.However,inthecaseof

solid-statebatteries,BNEFestimatesthat45%to130%

morelithiumwouldbeneededon

abattery-celllevelif

thesolid-stateelectrolytewereto

substituteboththeliquidelectrolyteand

separator.

Solidelectrolytescontainmorelithiumdueto

sl

温馨提示

  • 1. 本站所有资源如无特殊说明,都需要本地电脑安装OFFICE2007和PDF阅读器。图纸软件为CAD,CAXA,PROE,UG,SolidWorks等.压缩文件请下载最新的WinRAR软件解压。
  • 2. 本站的文档不包含任何第三方提供的附件图纸等,如果需要附件,请联系上传者。文件的所有权益归上传用户所有。
  • 3. 本站RAR压缩包中若带图纸,网页内容里面会有图纸预览,若没有图纸预览就没有图纸。
  • 4. 未经权益所有人同意不得将文件中的内容挪作商业或盈利用途。
  • 5. 人人文库网仅提供信息存储空间,仅对用户上传内容的表现方式做保护处理,对用户上传分享的文档内容本身不做任何修改或编辑,并不能对任何下载内容负责。
  • 6. 下载文件中如有侵权或不适当内容,请与我们联系,我们立即纠正。
  • 7. 本站不保证下载资源的准确性、安全性和完整性, 同时也不承担用户因使用这些下载资源对自己和他人造成任何形式的伤害或损失。

评论

0/150

提交评论