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江苏科技大学南徐学院本科毕业论文（外文翻译原文）PAGEPAGE6MeasuringtheImpactofTourismuponUrbanEconomies:AReviewofLiteratureKTHC–Knowledge,Technology,HumanCapitalUgoGasparino,ElenaBellini,BarbaraDelCorpoandWilliamMaliziaAbstractTourismisincreasinglyseenasapotentiallevertowardshigheconomicgrowth,measuredbothintermsofincomeandemployment.Inrecentyears,interestintourismhasspreadrapidlythroughoutmanysmallandmediumEuropeancities,whichpreviouslyhavenotconsideredthemselvesastouristdestinations.Thispaperreviewsandsummarizestheexistingliteratureontheeconomicassessmentoftourismwiththeobjectivesof,firstly,identifyingthemaincategoriesofimpactsand,secondly,constructinganinventoryofmethodologiesavailabletoassessthem.Wewillprogressstepbystep,startingfromthemostsimplisticapproachesandrelaxingassumptionsasweproceed.Firstly,weassumeastaticsetting,withsparecapacity.Insuchasetting(partialequilibrium),pricesdonotrespondtodemandshocks:onlyquantities(production,incomeandjobs)adjust.Secondly,werelaxthisassumptionandassumethatthereisnosparecapacity:pricesrespondtoincreasingdemand(generalequilibrium),leadingtoreallocationofresourcesacrosssectors.Wethenmovefromastatictoadynamicsettingandsurveythosecontributionsthatlookattherelationshipbetweentourismspecialisationandlong-rungrowth.Keywords:Tourism,EconomicImpacts,Input-OutputAnalysis,GeneralandPartialEquilibriumAnalysis1ThepartialequilibriumanalysisPartialequilibriumanalysisassumesthatthereissparecapacityunemployedresourcesandthat,asaconsequence,pricesdonotrespondtoincreasingdemand(perfectelasticsupply).Adjustmenttakesplaceonlythroughquantities(production,jobs,andthereforeincome).Thebasicconceptofpartialequilibriumanalysisisthatof‘multiplier’although,asnoticedbyArcher,«thereisperhapsmoremisunderstandingaboutmultiplieranalysisthanalmostanyotheraspectoftourismresearch»(Archer,1982).Multipliersmeasurethepresenteconomicperformanceofthetourismindustryandtheeffectsofshort-runeconomicadjustmentstoachangeintheleveloftouristexpenditure.Thedefinitionofmultiplier,intermsofKeynes,isunequivocal:themultipliermeasurestheincreaseineconomicactivitygeneratedinaneconomybyaunitincreaseintourismexpenditure.Atourismincomemultiplierisacoefficientthatexpressestheamountofincomegeneratedinanareabyanadditionalunitoftouristspending:forinstance,iftouristsspendanextraEUR1millionintheareaandthisgeneratesEUR800,000ofincome,theKeynesianmultiplieris0.81.However,alternativedefinitionsofmultiplierscanbefoundintourismliterature.Themostpopularoftheseistheuseof‘ratio’multiplier,whereforexampletheincomemultipliertendstobeexpressedastheratioofa‘total’incomegeneratedbytourismexpenditure(seeSection1.1)tothe‘direct’income.Dependingonwhatismeantby‘total’income,threetypesof‘ratio’multiplierscanbegenerated.Despitethestrongassumptionsimplicitintheircalculation,multipliersarewidelyusedinpolicy-making.Theyareusedtostudytheimpactoftourismonbusinessturnover,incomeandemploymentandcanbeusedtocomparetheimpactofincreaseddemandonothersectorsoftheeconomyordifferentpolicyoptions.Inwhatfollows,wefirstlyintroducetheeconomicmeaningofmultipliers,analysinghowthetouristexpenditureripplesthroughtheeconomy.Secondly,wepresenttwowidelyusedmethodologiestocalculatemultipliers.Finally,webrieflydiscussandcomparesomeoftheempiricalresults.2TheeconomicmeaningofmultipliersInthedestinationtouristsspendtheirmoneytobuycertaingoodsandservices.Thisinitialtouristexpenditureisgenerallydirectedtoveryspecificsectorsoftheeconomy(lodging,restaurant,amusement,retailtrade,transportation–whichwewillrefertoasAlthoughthecorrectmethodologywouldrequirethecalculationofthemultiplieratthemargin,itiscommonpractice(mainlybecauseofdatalimitation)tocalculateincomeeffectsintermsofaverage,ratherthanmarginal,tourismexpenditureandtoassumethatthereisnosignificantdifferencebetweenthem.ThisimpliesthattheeconomyhasavailablecapacitytomeetfuturedemandTourismindustriesandrepresentsadditionalrevenuesfortheseactivities.Thesearetheso-calleddirecteffects.Partofthoserevenuesisusedtobuyintermediategoodsandservicesthatwillbeusedin‘futureproductioncycles’(intermediatedemand).Aremainingpartwillbeusedtobuytheservicesofproductionfactors:labour,capitalandland(wages,interestsandprofits,andrents–grossvalueadded),topaytaxestocentralandlocalgovernments,orsaved.Inallcases,somemoneycouldgooutsidethearea,tointermediateproducersandproductionfactorslocatedoutsidethearea(i.e.,it‘leaks’outofthelocaleconomy).However,somewillremainwithinthearea:localtourismindustrieswillhirenewlocalithastobenoticedthattheincomemultiplier,expressedasratiosofmoneytomoneymaynotsignificantlychangeovertime;Keynesianemploymentmultiplier,however,beingexpressedasaratioofnumberofemployeestotourismexpenditures,willbeaffectedbyinflation.Theselimitationsbecomeincreasinglybindingthegreaterthesimulatedchangeindemand.Althoughrealworldproductionrelationshipsaremostprobablynon-linear,itisnotunreasonabletoapproximatethesewithlinearspecificationsaslongasthechangesfromthestartingpointremainrelativelysmall.Ontheotherhand,simulationsthatinvolvedrasticchangesfromthemeansarelikelytohavepoorpredictiveabilities.Despiteoftheselimitations,anunderstandingofthecaveatscanhelptheanalysttoovercometheweaknesses.Dependingonthecharacteristicsoftheareaofconcernandonthetouristspendingpatterns,theassumptionsatthebaseofI-Oanalysiscouldbiasthevaluesofthederivedtourismmultipliers(Fletcher,1989;Briassoulis,1991).Asalreadynoticed,fortheemploymentmultipliervaluestoholdtrue,itmustbeassumedthatanincreaseinfinaldemandwillresultineachsectorincreasingtheirdemandforlabourinalinearway.Thiswillonlybereasonableifeverysectorisoperatingatfullutilization.Anyunderutilizationwillmeanthatsectorscanexpandoutputwithoutresortingtoemployingadditionalstaff.Intheshortrunitislikelythatmostsectorswillmeetadditionaldemandbyeitherbetterutilizationofexistingpersonnelorbyincreasingover-time.Insuchcases,theemploymentmultiplierwillover-estimatetheeffectsonemployment.Thiscanbeparticularlycriticalinthecaseoftourism,wheretherestaurant&hotelindustryistypicallycharacterizedbycapacityunder-utilization(reflectedinhoteloccupancyrateslowerthan100%).Thismeansthatadditionaltouristscanbeaccommodatedbyexistinghotelsandrestaurantswithonlyamarginalincreaseinemploymentandintheinputsrequiredfromtheothersectorsoflocaleconomy.Furtherdifficultiesinherenttotheassessmentofemploymentimpactsarerelatedtoseasonalityproblems(particularlyimportantforsun&beachtourism)andtothefactthatitisverycommonintourismrelatedestablishmentsthatmanypeopleemployedintourismalsoholdanotherjobandpart-timeemployment.Furthermore,itisalsoquiteconceivablethatsomeindustrieswillnotbeabletorespondtoanincreaseindemand(particularlyintheshort-termrun)andanyincreaseindemandwillneedtobemetbyanincreaseinimportsratherthananincreaseinthelevelofoutputofthedomesticindustries.Thereisawiderangeofliteratureon(tourism)multipliers.Wedonotaimatdiscussingallfindings,butratheratidentifyingthosefactorsthatinfluencethevaluesofmultipliersandthatmightberelevanttoourdiscussion.Wewillfirstlydiscussissuesrelativetothecalculationofmultipliers.Thispartwillhelptoclarifysomeofthedefinitionspresentedinprevioussectionsandtoassesstherangeofchangesinvolvedwiththedifferentdefinitions.Secondly,wewilldiscussissuesrelativetothedestinationregions(andhowtheyinfluencethevalueofmultipliers).Thiswillhelptoclarifytheregionalfactorsthatweneedtotakeintoconsiderationintheempiricalstudies.Thirdly,wewilldiscusstherelevantfeaturesoftourismandtourists’patterns.Thisisveryrelevantforpolicy-makinginthefieldoftourism;differentstrategicchoicesmustbecompared.Finally,wewilldiscusstheissuesconcerningtheimpactonemployment.Cautionmusthoweverbeexercisedwhencomparingquantitativelymultipliersfromdifferentstudies,sincemultipliersmighthavebeengeneratedbydifferentmethodologies,includedifferentassumptions,reflectdifferentdistributionsofexpenditures(e.g.,moreonhotel,lessonshopping).Typesofmultiplierandtheirrangeofvalues.Multipliershavebeenwidelyusedinresearchandpolicysupport.However,theirusehasbeenoftencharacterizedbyconfusionandmisunderstandingconcerningthetypologiesoftheusedmultipliers(Archer,1982).Herewediscusstherangeofchangesinempiricalfindingsinvolvedwhendifferenttypologiesofmultipliersareused.Afirstdistinctionreferstotherangeofeffectstakenintoaccountbythemultiplier.InSingapore,incomeandoutputmultiplierincreaseby30%wheninducedeffectsareincluded(HengandLow,1990);theincreaseintheincomemultiplier,whenalsoinducedeffectsareconsidered,isfoundbyDelCorpoetal(2008)tovaryfrom20%inSicilyto65%inSpain.Feedbackeffectsfromsurroundingregionscanalsobeconsidered.SinclairandSutcliffe(1988)takeintoaccountfeedbackeffectsfromsurroundingeconomiesandshowthatthesizeofmultiplierincreasesby2-7%.Theseconddistinctionreferstotheaffectedvariable(sales,output,incomeoremploymentmultiplier).Thisisasimpleandclearissue,butitisveryrelevantwhencomparingdifferentvaluesofmultipliers.Itisimportanttonotethatdifferentdefinitionsofmultipliersarerelevantfordifferentpolicyobjectives.Therelevantmultipliersshouldbethereforechosenwhencomparingdifferentpolicyoptionswithrespecttoaspecificobjective(eitherthemaximisationoftheemployment,incomeorgovernmentrevenueseffect).Salesandoutputmultiplierstendtobearoundthedoubleofincomemultipliers(HengandLow,1990).MultipliersandfeaturesofdestinationregionThevalueofthemultiplierscruciallydependsonleakages,andthereforeontheshareofimportstototaloutput.Inturn,theshareofimportisheavilydependentonthesizeoftheregion(smalleconomiesarerelativelylessself-containedthanlargereconomies).Inthespecificcaseoftourismmultipliers,theinterrelationshipsoftourismindustrieswiththerestofthelocaleconomy(andspecificallytheextenttowhichdemandfromtourismindustriesissatisfiedwithimports),isalsoacrucialfactor.IncomemultipliersreachamaximumforlargecountriessuchasTurkeyandtheUKandinself-containedsmallislandeconomies(Jamaica,Mauritius),wheretheyvaryintherange0.50-1.20.TheyarejustsmallerforUSstates(range0.40-0.90–Archer,1988),butsensiblylowerinveryopenregionalandurbaneconomiessuchasUSandUKcounties(range0.20-0.50–Fletcher,1989;Archer,1982).Baaijensetal(1998)analyzedstatistically(regressionmodels)incomemultipliersextractedfrom11studies.Apositiverelationshipwasfoundwiththelogarithmofthepopulation(severalalternativeregionalcharacteristics–asareasize,numberoftouristarrivals–werealsotested).AsimilarresultwasfoundbyChang(2001),analyzingmorethan100regionalIOmodelsvaryinginsizeandeconomicdevelopment(coveringfiveUS-states:California,Colorado,Florida,MichiganandMassachusetts),generatedbymeansoftheIMPLANI-Omodellingsystem.A‘tourismmultiplier’wasdefinedasaweightedsumofmultipliersderivedfromfourtourism-relatedsectors(lodging,eatinganddrinking,recreationandretail).ForallthefouranalyzedTypeII‘tourismmultipliers’(sales,income,valueaddedandjob)themostsignificantpredictor,inastepwiseregressionanalysis,wasfoundtobethelogarithmofpopulation.Whilesales,incomeandvalueaddedmultipliersincreasedalmostlinearlywiththelogarithmofpopulation,theemploymentmultipliershowedanegativecorrelation(interpretedonthebasisthat,inthecontestoftheanalyzeddataset,regionscharacterizedbyasmallernumberofinhabitantstendtocorrespondtolesseconomicallydevelopedruralareas).Usinghotelsasanexample,higherjobtosalesratiocouldbearesultoflowerroomrates,ormorepart-timeandseasonaljobs(resultinginloweraveragewages).TypeIImultipliersvs.Log(Population)for114USregions.TheemptydiamondsreporttheresultsobtainedthroughI-Omodelling(IMPLAN),whilethesquarescorrespondtothecorrespondingresultsfromastatisticalregressionanalysiswithLog(Population)asdominantpredictors.Thelinesreportempiricalmultipliersproposedfromastraightforwardclassificationofthedifferentregionsin:‘rural’,‘smallmetro’,‘largemetro’and‘State’.Multipliersandfeaturesoftourismandtourists’patternsTouristsdifferinbehaviouralandexpenditurepatterns.Thishasconsequencesforthesizeandrangeofeconomiceffects.Thisquestioniscrucialwhenconfrontingdifferentpolicychoicesfortourismdevelopment(e.g.,privilegingshortvs.longstays,beachresortvs.culturaltourism,etc.).Twokeyissuesmustbetakenintoaccounthere.Firstly,theimpactonthelocaleconomyvariesnotonlydependingonthevalueofthemultipliers,butalsoonthevalueofthemultiplicand:evenifthemultiplierishigh,thefinalimpactonlocalincomewillbelowifthedirectinjectionoftouristexpenditureinthedestinationregionislow.Previousresearchshowsthattouristspendingtakingplacethroughtouroperators,internationalairlinesandchainhotelsoftenleaksoutimmediatelywithoutevenreachingthedestinationeconomy.Forexample,only42%ofthepriceofapackageholidaywasreceivedbySpainwhentouriststravelledonanon-Spanishairline(IstitutoEspanoldeTurismo,1987).SimilarresultsholdforKenya:only38%ofUKtourists’spendingtravellinginpackageholidaysreachedKenya.Improvingoptionslocallyavailabletotouristswouldmagnifythesizeofeconomicimpacts.InthecaseofKenya,theuseoflocalairlinescouldconsiderablyincreasetheshareofexpenditureaccruingtotheCountry:upto66%iflocalairlinesareusedforinternaltravels,upto80%ifKenyanairlinesareusedforinternationalflightsalso(Sinclair,1991).Secondly,theimpactonthelocaleconomyvarieswiththepatternsoftourist’sexpenditure,inturninfluencedbythemotivationofthetrip(pleasurevs.business,forexample),thenationalityoftourists,theaccommodationchosen.Researchshowsthataccommodationisakeyfactor,asconfirmedamongothersbyDelCorpoetal(2008).SinclairandSutcliffe(1988)findthattheincomemultiplierinMalagaislowerfortouristsstayinginflatsorvillasandhigherfortouristsstayinginhotels.Thisisduetothedifferentrelationshipsthatthesetypesofaccommodationcreatewiththelocaleconomy.Onthecontrary,thenationalityofthetouristdoesnotseemtobesorelevant.ArcherandFletcher(1996)findnoevidencethatnationalityoftouristsmadeasignificantdifferencetothesizeimpactoftourismontheeconomyofSeychelles.ThedifferenceisfoundtobenegligiblealsointhethreecasestudiesusedbyDelCorpoetal(2008),thatisBergen,ElcheandSyracuse,eventhoughingeneralSpanishtouristsinElchepresentahigherdirectimpactthanforeigners.Finally,HengandLow(1990)findnoevidencethattouristsfromdevelopingcountrieshadadifferentimpactthantouristsfromdevelopedcountries.TheimpactsonemploymentTheabilityoftourismtocreatejobsisofhighrelevanceforpolicy-makers.AsdiscussedinSection1.1,employmentmultipliersareeasilycalculatedinmultiplierexercises.Thevaluesofthemultiplierareinfluencedbythesamefactorsdiscussedinprevioussections,andthereforedifferquitewidely.HengandLow(1990)findthattourisminSingaporecreatesover30jobspermilliondollarofexpenditurewheninducedeffectsareincludedandjustabove25jobswhenonlydirectandindirecteffectsarecalculated.Fletcher(1989)findsasimilarvalueforJamaica.HeshowsthatvaluesmightbeevenhigherforsmallereconomiessuchasGibraltar,wherehealsofindsthattheemploymentmultiplieroftourismexpenditureisnearlythedoublethanMinistryofDefenceandotherGovernmentdepartments’expenditure.Sinclair(1998)discussesfewadditionalfeaturesconcerningemploymenteffectsoftourism(basedbothoncasestudiesandmultiplieranalysis):Tourismindustriesarerelativelyskill-intensive.ThiswaspointedoutbyDiamond(1974),inhisresearchonTurkey,andconfirmedbyfollowingstudies.DelosSantosetal(1983)furthernoticedthatonly16%ofemploymentinthetourismsectorinthePhilippineswasunskilledandthatnearly40%wassemi-skilled;Muchoftheemploymentinthecateringandaccommodationisonapart-timeseasonalbasisorfamily-relatedwithoutaformalwage.SinclairandBoteGomez(1996)findthatjustbelow10%ofpart-timeworkersinhotelsandguesthousesinSpainwerewithoutaformalwage.Farver(1984)findsthathotelemploymentinGambianearlydoubledinthehighseasonwithrespecttothelowseason.Healsofindsthattopmanagerialpostsareusuallyoccupiedbyforeigners.ThisappearstobetruealsofortheFijiIslands(Samy,1975).However,inKenyathistrendhasbeenTheseresultspointouttopotentialimportantemploymentgainsfromtourism,underbothaquantityandaqualityperspective(althoughseasonalityremainsaproblem).4ConclusionsBasedonthereviewofliterature,wecanproposearathergeneralclassificationoftheimpactsoftourismonurbaneconomies:Theimpactsthattakeplacethroughmarketinteractions;Theimpactsthatdonotinvolvemarketinteractions;Thekeyissuesthataffectthesizeandsignoftheimpacts.4.1ImpactstakingplacethroughmarketinteractionsTouriststypicallydemandasetofservicesandgoods.Someoftheseareprovidedbythemarket,suchasrestaurants,hotels,privatetransportation(wereferredtothemastourismindustries).Thisadditionaldemandgeneratesaseriesofimpactsonthelocaleconomy:Increasedexpenditurebytouristsincreaseslocalproduction(andincomes).Assumingthatthereisidlecapacity(andpricesdonotrespondtoincreaseddemand),thefinalincreaseisbiggerthantheinitialincrease(multipliereffect);Theadditionalincomebringswithitadditionaljobs:directly,inthetourismsectorandindirectlyinthesectorsservingthetourismsector;Whenrelaxingtheassumptionofidlecapacity,prices(aswellasquantities)respondtotheadditionaldemand.Theoryshowsthat,finally,thebenefitsoftourismarecapitalizedinhigherpricesofnon-tradablesectors(hotels,restaurants,houses,pricesoflocallyproducedgoods)andthattheyfinallyaccruetotheimmobilefactors(e.g.,land)employedinthenon-tradablesector(whichisabletochargehigherprices).Theaboveeffectsimplythatthereisadistributionalissue,astourismleadstoacontractionofthetradedsector(e.g.,manufacturing)andtoadecreaseofrealreturnstoalltheotherfactors;Thestructuralchangeinducedintheeconomymayaffectitscapabilitytogrowinthelongrun.Thecrucialquestioniswhetheraregionrelativelyspecializedintourismwillgrowslowerorfasterthan,forexample,regionsspecializedinknowledgeintensiveindustries.Theoretically,theanswerdependsonthelong-rundynamicsofpricesoftouristgoodscomparedto,forexample,knowledge-intensivegoods.4.2Impactstakingplacethroughnon-marketinteractionsTouristsdonotonlydemandgoodsandservicesprovidedbythemarket.Theyalsodemandaccesstonaturalandculturalresourcesandtopubliclyprovidedgoodsandservices(suchaswater,publictransportation,healthandsecurity,acleanenvironment).Thisadditionaldemandgeneratesthefollowingimpacts.Firstly,theadditionalpressureonnaturalandculturalresourcescanleadtotheiroverexploitationanddegradation.Secondly,thepressureonpublicserviceswillalsoincrease,asaconsequenceoftheadditionaldemandforwater,wasteandwatertreatment,publictransportation.Theadditionalcostswillbecompensated(tosomeextent)byanincreaseoffiscalrevenuesfollowingtheincreaseofincomesandjobs.Thirdly,thereisapureexternaleffectintermsofthecongestion(noise,trafficjams)causedbythearrivaloftourists.Fromthediscussionaboveitfollowsthatthesizeandsignofimpactswilldependonthefollowingmainvariables:Theleveloftouristexpenditure(determiningtheinitialshock);Theshareofadditionaldemandthatcanbesatisfiedbylocalproduction(determiningthefinalshocktothelocaleconomy);Theamountofidleresources(determininghowmuchoftheshockisaccommodatedbyincreasesinpricesorquantities);Thelong-termdynamicsofthepricesoftouristgoods(determiningthelong-termgrowthpotentialoftourism-specializedeconomies);Thepressureonnaturalandculturalresourcesandpubliclyprovidedgoods(determiningtheexternalcostsassociatedwithtourism).Inturn,thosevariablesareinfluencedbythefollowingfactors:Thecharacteristicsoftourists.Keyfeatureshereinclude:Thereasonfortravel(touriststravellingforculturalreasonsspendmore/lessandputless/morepressureonnaturalandculturalresourcesthansun&beachtourists);Thelengthofstay(touristsstayingforthedayarelikelytospendasmallershareoftotalexpenditureinlocallyproducedgoods);Theaccommodationchosen(hotelsaremoreexpensivethancampingsites).Thestructureofthelocaleconomyanditsrelationshipswiththetourismindustries.Keyfeaturehereistheabilityofthelocaleconomytosatisfythedemandoftourismindustries(themorelikelythemorediversifiedisthelocaleconomy).Importantfactoralsoisthesizeandtheshareofcapital,landandlabourthatislocallyowned.Forinstance,smallfamily-ownedhotelsandrestaurantsaremorelikelytobuylocalintermediateinputsthanchainhotelsandvillages.Iffactorsarelocallyowned,theirremunerations(profits,rentandwages)willstaylocallyandbenefitthelocaleconomy.Theamountofidleresources.Ifthereareidleresources(unemployedlabour,nousedland),thei