全球经济状况调查：2023年第四季度（英文）-ACCA+IMA

TheAssociationof

im

ThinkAhead

Accountantsand

Financialprofessionals

inBusiness

GLOBALECONOMICCONDITIONSSURVEYREPORT:Q4,2023

AboutACCA

WeareACCA(theAssociationofCharteredCertifiedAccountants),agloballyrecognisedprofessionalaccountancybodyprovidingqualificationsandadvancingstandardsinaccountancyworldwide.

Foundedin1904towidenaccesstotheaccountancyprofession,we’velongchampionedinclusionandtodayproudlysupportadiversecommunityofover247,000membersand526,000futuremembersin181countries.

Ourforward-lookingqualifications,continuouslearningandinsightsarerespectedandvaluedbyemployersineverysector.Theyequipindividualswiththebusinessandfinanceexpertiseandethicaljudgmenttocreate,protect,andreportthesustainablevaluedeliveredbyorganisationsandeconomies.

Guidedbyourpurposeandvalues,ourvisionistodeveloptheaccountancyprofessiontheworldneeds.Partneringwithpolicymakers,standardsetters,thedonorcommunity,educatorsandotheraccountancybodies,we’restrengtheningandbuildingaprofessionthatdrivesasustainablefutureforall.

Findoutmoreat

AboutIMA®(Instituteof

ManagementAccountants)

IMA®isoneofthelargestandmostrespectedassociationsfocusedexclusivelyonadvancingthemanagementaccountingprofession.Globally,IMAsupportstheprofessionthroughresearch,theCMA®(CertifiedManagementAccountant),CSCA®(CertifiedinStrategyandCompetitiveAnalysis),andFMAA™(FinancialandManagerialAccountingAssociate)certificationprograms,continuingeducation,networking,andadvocacyofthehighestethicalbusinesspractices.TwicenamedProfessionalBodyoftheYearbyTheAccountant/InternationalAccountingBulletin,IMAhasaglobalnetworkofabout140,000membersin150countriesand350professionalandstudentchapters.HeadquarteredinMontvale,N.J.,USA,IMAprovideslocalizedservicesthroughitssixglobalregions:TheAmericas,China,Europe,MiddleEast/NorthAfrica,India,andAsiaPacific.

FormoreinformationaboutIMA,pleasevisit:

©TheAssociationofCharteredCertifiedAccountants,InstituteofManagementAccountants

January2024

3

TheGlobalEconomicConditionsSurvey(GECS),carriedoutjointlybyACCA(theAssociationofCharteredCertifiedAccountants)andIMA

(InstituteofManagementAccountants),isthelargestregulareconomic

surveyofaccountantsaroundtheworld,inboththenumberofrespondentsandtherangeofeconomicvariablesitmonitors.

TheGECShasbeenconductedforover10years.Itsmainindicesaregoodlead

indicatorsofeconomicactivityandprovideavaluableinsightintotheviewsoffinanceprofessionalsonkeyvariables,suchasinvestment,employment,andcosts.

Fieldworkforthe2023Q4surveytookplacebetween28Novemberand12December

2023andgathered1,447responses:1,228fromACCAmembersand219fromIMAmembers.

ACCAandIMAwouldliketothankallmemberswhotookthetimetorespondtothesurvey.Itistheirfirst-handinsightsintothefortunesofcompaniesaroundtheworldthatmakeGECSatrustedbarometerfortheglobaleconomy.

Introduction

THEGLOBAL

ECONOMIC

CONDITIONSSURVEY(GECS),ISTHE

LARGESTREGULAR

ECONOMICSURVEY

OFACCOUNTANTS

AROUNDTHEWORLD.

4

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

-40

-50

-60

Executivesummary

THEGLOBAL

ECONOMIC

CONDITIONS

SURVEYSUGGESTS

THATCONFIDENCE

DECLINEDAGAININ

Q4,CONSISTENTWITHAFURTHERSLOWINGINGLOBALGROWTH.

ThelatestACCAandIMAGlobal

EconomicConditionsSurvey(GECS)

suggeststhatconfidenceamong

accountantsandfinanceprofessionals

declinedslightlyforthethirdquarterinarowandisnowmoderatelybelowitslong-termaverage.Therewasalsoadecline

intheEmploymentIndex,whichisatitsweakestsince2020Q4,consistentwithsomeeasinginjobmarkets.Meanwhile,theNewOrdersIndexincreased

fractionallyandisjustaboveitsaverage,whilecapitalexpenditureimprovedbutremainsbelowaverage(seeChart1).

Agoodcross-checkontheeconomic

outlookisprovidedbythetwoGECS

‘fear’indices,whichreflectrespondents’

concernsthatcustomersand/orsuppliersmaygooutofbusiness(seeChart2).Fearsaboutcustomersgoingoutofbusiness

edgedupslightlyagain,butconcerns

aboutsupplierscontinuedtoease.

Neitherserieslooksalarmingbyhistoricalstandards.Withcorporatebankruptciesrising,andasmonetarypolicytightening

workswithalag,wearelikelytoseesomedeteriorationintheseindicesin2024.

Attheregionallevel,therewasavery

largeriseinconfidenceinNorthAmerica,

whichisnowclosetoitslong-term

average.Thisperhapsreflectsincreased

confidencethattheU.S.FederalReservemaybeabletopulloffasoftlandingin

2024.Bycontrast,confidencedeclinedinbothWesternEuropeandAsiaPacific,andisbelowaverageinbothregions.There

wasalsoaverysharpfallinAfrica,erasingthegainsmadeearlierin2023.

Allinall,theGECSsurveyremains

consistentwithsomefurtherslowing

inglobaleconomicgrowth,althoughit

doesnotsuggestthatamajordownturnisintheoffing.Nevertheless,theglobal

economylookssettogrowatmaterially

lessthanitslong-termaverageratein

2024anddownsiderisksremain.Indeed,geopoliticalriskscontinuetobuild,in

particulargiventheriskofanescalationoftheconflictintheMiddleEast.

CONFIDENCEAMONG ACCOUNTANTSGLOBALLY DECLINEDSLIGHTLYFORTHETHIRDCONSECUTIVEQUARTER.THEEMPLOYMENTINDEXALSO FELL,WHILETHEINDEXFOR CAPITALEXPENDITUREROSEMODESTLY.NEWORDERSWERELARGELYUNCHANGED.

CONCERNSTHATCUSTOMERSCOULDGOOUTOFBUSINESSINCREASEDMARGINALLY,

BUTFEARSABOUTSUPPLIERS CONTINUEDTOEASE.THELAGGEDIMPACTOFAGGRESSIVEGLOBALMONETARYTIGHTENING SHOULDLEADTOSOMEDETERIORATIONINOUR

‘FEAR’INDICESIN2024.

CHART1:GECSglobalindicators

Index

Q42013Q42015Q42017Q42019Q42021Q42023

Source:ACCA/IMA(2013–23)

ConfdenceIndex

CapitalExpenditureIndex

OrdersIndex

EmploymentIndex

CHART2:GECSglobal‘fear’indices

Index

50

40

30

20

10

0

Q42013Q42015Q42017Q42019Q42021Q42023

GECS:Indexofconcernaboutcustomersgoingoutofbusiness

GECS:Indexofconcernaboutsuppliersgoingoutofbusiness

Source:ACCA/IMA(2013–23)

5

1.Globalandregionalanalysis

LOOKINGATTHE

CHANGEINTHE

GECSCONFIDENCE

INDICESOVERTHE

PASTQUARTER,THE

SHARPJUMPINNORTHAMERICAOFALMOST

25POINTSISSTRIKING.

LookingatthechangeintheGECS

Confidenceindicesoverthepastquarter,thesharpjumpinNorthAmericaofalmost25pointsisstriking(seeChart3a).This

wasthefifth-largestgaininthesurvey’s

historyandcomesafteramarkedfallin

Q3.ContinuedrobustGDPgrowthintheU.S.haslikelybuoyedsentiment,while

sharplyfallinginflationmayhaveincreasedexpectationsthattheeconomycouldbeheadingforthemuchtalkedabout“softlanding.”Surprisingly,confidenceroseintheMiddleEastdespitetherecenteventsinIsraelandGaza,andalsoincreased

inSouthAsia.Confidencedeclinedin

WesternEuropeforthethirdconsecutivequarter,whichishardlysurprisinggiven

theweaknessintheeurozoneandUK

economies.ConfidencefellquitesharplyinAsiaPacificafterprevioustentative

signsofimprovement.RenewedconcernsaboutthestateofChina’seconomic

recoverycouldhavebeenthedriver.

Therewasaverysharpplungein

confidenceinAfrica,erasingthestronggainsoverthefirstthreequartersof2023.

Thiscouldreflectthechallengingglobaleconomicbackdrop,amidweaknessin

keymarketssuchasChinaandWesternEurope,aswellasrisinggeopoliticalrisks.

Lookingatthepast12months,global

confidenceisslightlyhigherthanatthe

start,butthisisentirelyowingtothesharpriseinQ12023.Confidencefellbackin

eachofthesubsequentquarters.Itisup

themostinNorthAmericaafterthesharpreboundinQ4(seeChart3b).Thenext

largestrisewasinSouthAsia,followedbyWesternEurope.Thelatter’simprovementwasdrivenbythehugeQ1increase,withconfidencesubsequentlyfallingbyover

25points.AsiaPacificrecordedbyfar

thelargestfallinconfidence,whilethereweresmalldeclinesintheMiddleEast

andAfrica.Confidenceishigherthanits

long-termaverageintheMiddleEast,andclosetoitinNorthAmericaandSouth

Asia,althoughslightlylowerinAsiaPacific,andmateriallylowerinWesternEurope,

and,toalesserextentinAfrica.

THEGLOBALCONFIDENCE INDEXDECLINEDSLIGHTLY FROMQ3TOQ4.WHILE CONFIDENCEROSESHARPLY INNORTHAMERICA,THEREWASAVERYMARKEDFALLINAFRICA,ANDDECLINESINTHEIMPORTANTASIAPACIFICANDWESTERNEUROPEREGIONS.

CONFIDENCEISUPMODESTLY ATAGLOBALLEVELOVERTHEPASTYEARDESPITEAGGRESSIVEMONETARYTIGHTENING.THEREARESOMESTRIKINGREGIONAL DIFFERENCESTHOUGH.ITIS MUCHHIGHERINNORTH AMERICABUTMATERIALLYLOWERINASIAPACIFIC.

CHART3a:Confidence–changeoverthepastquarter

Indexpoints

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

NorthAmerica

SouthAsia

MiddleEastGlobal

Western

Europe

AsiaPacificAfrica

Source:ACCA/IMA(2013–23)

CHART3b:Confidence–changeoverthepastyear

NorthAmerica

SouthAsia

WesternEurope

Global

Africa

MiddleEast

AsiaPacific

Indexpoints-20

-1001020

30

Source:ACCA/IMA(2013–23)

GLOBALECONOMICCONDITIONSSURVEYREPORT:Q4,2023

6

50

TheGECSGlobalNewOrdersIndex

increasedmarginallyinQ4andisslightlyaboveitsaverageoverthesurvey’shistory.Attheregionallevel,ordersrosemodestlyinWesternEurope,theMiddleEast,andSouthAsia,butdeclinednoticeablyin

AsiaPacific,Africa,and,toalesserextent,inNorthAmerica(seeChart4a).Lookingbackoverthepastyear,thedeclinesin

neworderswerelargestinAsiaPacific

andAfrica.SouthAsia,NorthAmerica,

andtheMiddleEastregisteredmodest

declines,whileWesternEuropewastheonlyregionrecordinganincrease(see

Chart4b).Comparedwiththeirhistory,newordersarewellabovetheirlong-termaverageintheMiddleEast,andlessso

inAfricaandWesternEurope.TheyarebelowaverageinNorthAmerica,AsiaPacific,andSouthAsia.

Concernsaboutincreasedcostseased

slightlyagaininthelatestquarter.As

Chart5shows,costpressuresclearlylooktohavepeaked,althoughtheystillremainwellabovethemedianrecordedoverthesurvey’shistory.Thissuggeststhatthe

riskisthatfinancialmarketexpectationsmaybetoooptimisticonthetiming

andmagnitudeofcentralbankratecutsin2024.

THEGECSGLOBALNEW ORDERSINDEXMOVED MARGINALLYHIGHERINTHE LATESTQUARTER,ALTHOUGH THEREWASARATHERMIXED REGIONALPROFILE.ORDERS ROSEMODESTLYINWESTERNEUROPE,THEMIDDLEEASTAND SOUTHASIA,BUTDECLINED NOTICEABLYINASIAPACIFICANDAFRICA,ANDTOALESSEREXTENT,NORTHAMERICA.

OVERTHEPASTYEAR,NEWORDERSHAVEFALLENMOST

INASIAPACIFICANDAFRICA.WESTERNEUROPEWASTHEONLYREGIONRECORDINGARISE.

CONCERNSABOUTINCREASED COSTSEASEDAGAINBUT REMAINELEVATEDBYHISTORICALSTANDARDS.THIS SUGGESTSTHATTHERISKIS THATFINANCIALMARKET EXPECTATIONSMAYBETOO OPTIMISTICONTHETIMINGANDMAGNITUDEOFCENTRALBANKRATECUTSIN2024.

CHART4a:GECSOrdersoverthepastquarter

Indexpoints

5

0

-5

-10

Africa

AsiaPacific

Global

NorthAmerica

WesternEurope

MiddleEastSouthAsia

Source:ACCA/IMA(2013–23)

CHART4b:GECSOrdersoverthepastyear

WesternEurope

Global

MiddleEastNorthAmerica SouthAsiaAfrica

AsiaPacific

-6

Index

points

-5-4-3-2-1012

3

Source:ACCA/IMA(2013–23)

CHART5:Concernsaboutincreasedoperatingcosts

%

80

70

60

40

30

20Q42013Q42015Q42017Q42019Q42021Q42023

Source:ACCA/IMA(2013–23)

Global%ofrespondentsconcernedabout‘increasedcosts’Medianoversurveyhistory

GLOBALECONOMICCONDITIONSSURVEYREPORT:Q4,2023

7

Globalproblemsaccessingfinance

Thismayreflectthefactthatmonetary

Firmshiringandinvestinginstaffdeclined

edgedupslightlyinQ4,whileproblems

policyworkswithlags.Meanwhile,the

forthethirdconsecutivequarter,although

securingpromptpaymentwerelargely

sharpfallbackinU.S.governmentbond

therewasamodestimprovementin

unchanged(seeChart6).Neitherseries

yieldsfromtheirrecentpeaksinthe

capitalexpenditure(seeChart7).

currentlylooksconcerningbyhistorical

autumnhassparkedawelcomeeasing

Despitetheslowingglobaleconomy,

standards.Thisissurprising,giventhe

inglobalfinancialconditions,ashasthe

firmsdon’tappeartobeembarking

aggressiveglobalmonetarytighteningwe

softeningoftheU.S.dollar.

onamajorretrenchment.Indeed,the

haveseenoverthepastcoupleofyears.

employmentandcapitalexpenditureindicesareonlymodestlybelowtheirlong-termaveragesatthegloballevel.

THEREWASASMALLRISE INTHEPROPORTIONOF COMPANIESEXPERIENCINGPROBLEMSACCESSINGFINANCE, WHILEPROBLEMSSECURING PROMPTPAYMENTWERELARGELYUNCHANGED.NEITHERSERIESLOOKSCONCERNING

BYHISTORICALSTANDARDS.

COMPANIESREDUCEDJOBCREATIONANDINVESTMENT INSTAFFFORTHETHIRDSUCCESSIVEQUARTER,

BUTCAPITALEXPENDITUREIMPROVEDSLIGHTLY.

CHART6:Problemssecuringpromptpaymentandaccessingfinance

%

35

30

25

20

15

10

Q42013Q42015Q42017Q42019Q42021Q42023

Source:ACCA/IMA(2013–23)

Globalproblemsaccessingfnance(18.3)

Globalproblemssecuringpromptpayment(22.5)

CHART7:Changesinnetinvestmentandjobcreation

%

10

0

-10

-20

-30

-40

-50

-60

Q42013Q42015Q42017Q42019Q42021Q42023

Increasedinvestmentincapital(Net)

Increasedinvestmentinstaff(Net)

Increasedjobcreation(Net)

Source:ACCA/IMA(2013–23)

GLOBALECONOMICCONDITIONSSURVEYREPORT:Q4,2023

8

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60

Regionalanalysis

THESHARPJUMPIN

CONFIDENCEINNORTH

AMERICASTOODOUT,

BUTSENTIMENTWEAKENED

INASIAPACIFICAND

WESTERNEUROPE.

Thelatestresultsweremixedattheregionallevel.ThesignificantincreaseinconfidenceinNorthAmericawasstriking,andthere

werealsogainsinSouthAsiaandthe

MiddleEast.Butconfidencefellforthe

thirdconsecutivequarterinWesternEuropeanddeclinedinAsiaPacificaftersignsofimprovementinQ3.Moreover,confidencedroppedverysharplyinAfrica(seeChart8).

NewordersfellthemostinAsiaPacific,followedbyAfricaandNorthAmerica(seeChart9).Thereweremodestgains

inWesternEurope,theMiddleEast,andSouthAsia.

Allinall,NorthAmericastoodoutwith

itslargejumpinconfidence,perhaps

reflectingthecontinuedresilienceoftheU.S.economyandincreasedoptimism

thattheFederalReservewillbeabletopulloffasoftlandingamidsharplyfallinginflation.Meanwhile,thedeclinesin

confidenceandnewordersinAsiaPacificcouldreflectconcernsaboutthestateofChina’srecovery.

AFTERFALLINGSHARPLYINQ3,CONFIDENCESURGED

INNORTHAMERICAINTHE LATESTQUARTER.ITALSOROSEINSOUTHASIAANDTHEMIDDLEEAST.INCONTRAST,ITDECLINEDMATERIALLYINASIA PACIFICANDFORTHETHIRD CONSECUTIVEQUARTERINWESTERNEUROPE.THEREWAS ALSOAVERYSHARPDROPINCONFIDENCEINAFRICA.

REGIONALLY,NEWORDERS FELLQUITEMATERIALLYIN ASIAPACIFICANDAFRICA, ANDTOALESSEREXTENTINNORTHAMERICA.THEREWERE RELATIVELYMODESTGAINSINWESTERNEUROPE,THEMIDDLEEAST,ANDSOUTHASIA.

CHART8:RegionalConfidence

Index

-80Q42013Q42015Q42017Q42019Q42021Q42023

NorthAmericaAsiaPacificMiddleEastWEuropeSouthAsiaAfrica

Source:ACCA/IMA(2013–23)

CHART9:RegionalOrders

Index

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

-40

-50

Q42013Q42015Q42017Q42019Q42021Q42023

NorthAmericaAsiaPacificMiddleEastWEuropeSouthAsiaAfrica

Source:ACCA/IMA(2013–23)

GLOBALECONOMICCONDITIONSSURVEYREPORT:Q4,2023

9

-60

NORTHAMERICA

ConfidenceroseverysharplyinQ4,aftera

markedretreatpreviously.Interestinglythough,

theemploymentcomponentfellsharply,there

wasamoderatedeclineinthecapitalexpenditurecomponent,andamodestfallinneworders(see

Chart10).Thisisabitperplexing.TheConfidenceIndexcanbevolatile.Thebouncecouldreflect

increasedoptimismthattheU.S.economyis

settoachievea“softlanding.”FederalReserve

Nowcastspointtosolidgrowthofover2%inQ4,

followinggrowthofalmost5%inQ3.Atthesametime,inflationarypressureshavecontinuedtoease.Growthlookssettoslowmateriallyin2024,but

therecentsignificanteasinginfinancialconditionsandthedovishpivotfromtheFederalReservemayreducetherisksofarecession.TheConfidence

Indexisarounditslong-termaverage.Butthe

EmploymentandCapitalExpenditureindicesare

significantlybelowtheirs,suggestingthatfirmsmaystillwanttoseehowtheeconomyperformsbeforeswitchingintoamoreexpansionarymode.

ASIAPACIFIC

TheGECSAsiaPacificConfidenceIndexrecordedamaterialdeclineinQ4,afterimprovingmodestlypreviously.Therewerealsoquitematerialfallsin

newordersandemployment,andamodestretreatintheCapitalExpenditureIndex(seeChart11).

Allthekeyindicatorsarebelowtheirlong-term

averages.ConcernsaboutthestateofChina’s

economyareprobablyweighingonregional

confidencegivenmixedsignsaboutitsrecovery.

WeaknessintheEuropeaneconomy,andrather

subduedglobalprospects,arealsoprobably

reducingconfidenceinthisexport-orientedregion.AstrengtheninginChina’srecoverywouldclearlybebeneficialforAsiaPacific,aswouldasoftlandingfortheU.S.economy.MoreprotectionistpoliciesintheWesterneconomiesremainakeyriskfortheregion,althoughsomecountrieswillbebeneficiariesof

supplychaindiversification.

WESTERNEUROPE

ConfidencedeclinedinWesternEuropeforthethirdconsecutivequarter.Itisdownbyover25points

sinceitsmostrecentpeakin1Q2023andisquite

materiallybelowitslong-termaverage.Newordersimprovedsomewhatandareslightlyaboveaverage.TheCapitalExpenditureIndexrosebutlooksweakbyhistoricalstandards,whiletheemployment

componentfellsharplyandisnowwellbelowits

long-termaverage(seeChart12).Theregion’s

economyisweakatthepresenttimeamidthe

impactsfromtheaggressivemonetarytightening

bytheEuropeanCentralBankandBankofEngland,andasthesoftglobaleconomyweighsonexports.ThesignificantdeclineintheEmploymentIndex

wouldsuggestthattheregion’sjobmarketsmay

bebeginningtosoften.Allinall,theprospectsfor

growthinWesternEuropelookprettysubdued.

Nevertheless,itisnotclearthatamajordownturnisintheoffing.Indeed,improvingrealincomegrowthshouldprovidesomesupporttoconsumerspending.

CHART10:NorthAmerica

Index

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60

Q42013Q42015Q42017Q42019Q42021Q42023

ConfdenceIndexOrdersIndex

CapitalExpenditureIndexEmploymentIndex

Source:ACCA/IMA(2013–23)

CHART11:AsiaPacific

Index

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

-40

-50

-70Q42013Q42015Q42017Q42019Q42021Q42023

ConfdenceIndexOrdersIndex

CapitalExpenditureIndexEmploymentIndex

Source:ACCA/IMA(2013–23)

CHART12:WesternEurope

Index

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60

Q42013Q42015Q42017Q42019Q42021Q42023

ConfdenceIndexOrdersIndex

CapitalExpenditureIndexEmploymentIndex

Source:ACCA/IMA(2013–23)

GLOBALECONOMICCONDITIONSSURVEYREPORT:Q4,2023

10

MIDDLEEAST

ThesurveyresultsfortheMiddleEastarestronger

thanmayhavebeenexpected,giventheeventsinIsraelandGazaandthefallinthepriceofoilover

recentmonths(seeChart13).Confidenceroseby

sevenpointsandismeaningfullyaboveitslong-termaverage.TherewasalsoaverysharpincreaseintheCapitalExpenditureIndex,whichisnowwellaboveaverage.Meanwhile,newordersincreasedmodestlyandlookstrongbyhistoricalstandards.Bycontrast,therewasasmallfallintheEmploymentIndex,

althoughitremainsmeaningfullyaboveitslong-

termaverage.Allinall,thekeyindicesareindicativeofaratherencouragingpicturefortheMiddleEast.However,geopoliticaldevelopmentsremainamajordownsiderisk,giventheriskofanescalationoftheconflictintheregion.

SOUTHASIA

ThemostrecentsurveyresultsforSouthAsiawereencouraging(seeChart14).Confidenceroseby

almosteightpointsandisnowonlyslightlybelowitslong-termaverage.Therewerealsostrong

gainsintheEmploymentandCapitalExpenditureindices,bothofwhicharenowabovetheirhistorical

averages.Newordersimprovedmodestlybut

remainbelowtheirlong-termaverage.Asharp

reboundintheindicatorsforPakistan,from

depressedlevels,appearstohaveboostedthe

regionalindices.SincePakistansecuredfinancialsupportfromtheInternationalMonetaryFund

(IMF)inJuly,therehasbeensomeimprovementinthecountry’seconomicandfinancialindicators.Theeconomyexpandedby2.1%onayear-on-yearbasisintheJuly–Septemberquarter,afterbeing

negativeintheprevioustwoquarters,whilethestockmarkethassurgedandisclosetorecord

highs.ThekeyindicatorsforIndiaalsoimprovedandareabovetheiraveragelevels.Thecountryshouldcontinuetobethebest-performingmajorglobaleconomyin2024.

AFRICA

TheGECSConfidenceIndexforAfricafell

extremelysharplyinQ4,eradicatingthesizeable

gainsmadeoverthefirstthreequartersof2023.

Confidenceisnowquitemateriallybelowits

long-termaverage.Newordersalsodeclinedbutareabovetheiraveragelevels.Nonetheless,the

EmploymentIndexwaslargelyunchangedand

remainsaboveitsaverage.Onanotherpositive

note,theCapitalExpenditureIndeximproved

sharplyandisslightlyaboveaverage(seeChart

15).WhiletheConfidenceIndexcanbevolatile,

thedeclinemayreflectthechallengingeconomicbackdropinkeyexportmarketssuchasChinaandWesternEurope,aswellasrisinggeopoliticalrisksamidtheeventsintheMiddleEast.Weakglobal

growthwillbeaheadwindtothecontinentin2024.Nevertheless,monetaryeasingbytheU.S.FederalReserveshouldprovehelpful,aswillanyfurther

softeningintheU.S.dollar.

CHART13:MiddleEast

Index

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60

-80

Q42013Q42015Q42017Q42019Q42021Q42023

ConfdenceIndexOrdersIndex

CapitalExpenditureIndexEmploymentIndex

Source:ACCA/IMA(2013–23)

CHART14:SouthAsia

Index

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60

-80

Q42013Q42015Q42017Q42019Q42021Q42023

ConfdenceIndexOrdersIndex

CapitalExpenditureIndexEmploymentIndex

Source:ACCA/IMA(2013–23)

CHART15:Africa

Index

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60

-80

Q42013Q42015Q42017Q42019Q42021Q42023

ConfdenceIndexOrdersIndex

CapitalExpenditureIndexEmploymentIndex

Source:ACCA/IMA(2013–23)

GLOBALECONOMICCONDITIONSSURVEYREPORT:Q4,2023

11

ChiefFinancial

Officers

CONFIDENCEAMONGCFOsROSEAGAININQ4,BUTTHEEMPLOYMENTANDCAPITALEXPENDITUREINDICES

INDICATESOMECAUTION.

Theindicesreportedinthissectionreflectthesurveyresponsesofchieffinancial

officers(CFOs)whoarepartofour

broaderglobalpanelofaccountantsandfinanceprofessionals.

ConfidenceamongCFOsinourpanel

improvedinQ4forthesecondconsecutivequarterandisnowslightlyaboveits

long-termaverage.Newordersalso

improvedagainaccordingtoCFOsbut

remainbelowavera