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COVID-19
MACROECONOMIC
POLICYRESPONSES
INAFRICA
23
MacroeconomicResilience
inBeninandTogo
lanHeffernan&SalaviComlanApollinaire-Fabrice
IDRC·CRDI
Canada
AboutCoMPRA
TheCOVID-19MacroeconomicPolicyResponseinAfrica(CoMPRA)projectwas
developedfollowingacallforrapidresponsepolicyresearchintotheCOVID-19
pandemicbytheIDRC.Theproject’soverallgoalistoinformmacroeconomicpolicy
developmentinresponsetotheCOVID-19pandemicbylowandmiddle-income
countries(LMICs)anddevelopmentpartnersthatresultsinmoreinclusive,climate-
resilient,effectiveandgender-responsivemeasuresthroughevidence-basedresearch.
ThiswillhelptomitigateCOVID-19’ssocialandeconomicimpact,promoterecovery
fromthepandemicintheshorttermandpositionLMICsinthelongertermfora
moreclimate-resilient,sustainableandstablefuture.TheCoMPRAprojectwillfocus
broadlyonAfricancountriesandspecificallyonsixcountries(Benin,Senegal,Tanzania,
Uganda,NigeriaandSouthAfrica).SAIIAandCSEA,astheleadimplementing
partnersforthisproject,alsoworkwiththinktankpartnersinthesecountries.
OurDonor
ThisprojectissupportedbytheInternationalDevelopmentResearchCentre(IDRC).TheIDRCisaCanadianfederalCrowncorporation.ItispartofCanada’sforeign
affairsanddevelopmenteffortsandinvestsinknowledge,innovation,andsolutionstoimprovethelivesofpeopleinthedevelopingworld.
Recommendations
Benin
•Beninshouldcloselymonitorandsignificantlyreduceitsdebt-to-GDPlevelsduringthenext
periodofsustainedeconomicgrowth.Althoughthislevelofdebtmaybeacceptableatthe
presenttime,loweringthedebt-to-GDPratiowillallowthegovernmenttoborrowmoreeasilyandatalowerratetofinancespendingduringfuturecrises.
•Beninshouldworktowardsincreasingitstaxbasebyincentivisingfirmstomoveintotheformalsector.Thiswouldallowthegovernmenttousefiscalpolicymoreefficientlyduringcrisesandalsoreducedebtduringperiodsofeconomicgrowth.
•Benin’straderelationswithNigeriashouldbeimproved.Thiscanbeaccomplishedby
improvingmonitoringofgoodsandservicescrossinglandborderswiththespecificaimofreducingre-exports.
Togo
•Togoshouldimplementgovernancereforms.AllofthenationalcrisesinTogohavebeen
associatedwithuncertaintyregardingthecountry’spoliticalinstitutionsanditisdifficultto
implementcounter-cyclicalpoliciestooffsetthenegativeimpactofgovernancecrisesonGDP.
•Creatingmoreinclusivepoliticalandeconomicinstitutionscouldhelptopreventpoliticalcrisesfromarising.
•Togoshouldcloselymonitorinflationandmaintainalowgrowthrateinthemoneysupply.Contractionarypolicymayberequiredtopreventfurtherincreasesininflation.
Executivesummary
ThispolicybriefingprovidesacomparativeanalysisofthemacroeconomicresilienceofBenin
andTogotoendogenousandexogenousshocksoveratwenty-yearperiodfrom2000to2020.Bothcountrieshaveexperiencednumerousshocksoverthisperiod;however,asmallselectionofshocksineachcountryhaveindeedresultedinnegativegrowth.Theoverridingreasonfor
analysingtheimpactoftheseshocksistoprovideinsightstopolicymakersonhowbestto
enhanceresilienceinthetwocountries.TogoandBeninarecomparedastheyareneighbouringfrancophonecountriesofasimilarsizewedgedbetweenAnglophoneregionalpowerhouses
GhanaandNigeriainWestAfrica.BothcountriesarealsomembersofECOWASandWAEMU.Togohasbeenbesetbygovernancecrisesformostoftheperiod,whereasBeninhasenjoyedamuchgreaterlevelofpoliticalandeconomicstability.Nonetheless,itisinterestingtonotethatBenin,becauseofitsgreaterintegrationwiththeregionalandglobaleconomy,hasbeenmoresignificantlyimpactedbyshocksasdemonstratedbyitsvolatileGDPgrowthperformance.
Togo’seconomicperformance,incomparison,hasbeenlargelyshieldedbyitskeyexport,
phosphates,whichhasstrengtheneditsabilitytoapplycounter-cyclicalpoliciestosmooththeimpactofshocksonitseconomicperformance.
3MacroeconomicResilienceinBeninandTogo
Introduction
Togoisclassifiedasalow-incomecountry.Itisoneofthepoorestcountriesintheworld,ranked195thof214countrieswithaGDPpercapitaof$918.4in2022.1Benin,incontrast,wasreclassified
asalower-middle-incomecountryin2019fromitsformerlow-incomestatusbytheWorldBankandhadaGDPpercapitaof$1,303.2in2022.2Figure1displaystherelativesizeofthetwo
countriesintermsoftheirpopulationandGDPin2020.Beninisslightlybigger,bothinterms
ofpopulationandGDP,butgeographicallyalmosttwicethesizeofTogo.WhenconsideringthecompositionofGDPinthetwocountries,weseeinFigure2thatbotharenetimportersandthecountrieshavesimilarratiosofconsumption,governmentspendingandinvestmenttoGDP.
Inbothcountries,theservicesectorisbyfarthelargestsectorandrepresentedapproximately
50%ofdomesticproductionin2022.3Bothcountries’exportsarenotverydiversified.Togo’s
largestexportsaremineralsandrepresentapproximately50%ofexports.4Benin’slargestexportiscotton,whichrepresentsapproximately65%ofexports.5Bothcountrieshavehighlevelsof
povertywith38%ofthepopulationofBeninand45%ofTogo’spopulationlivinginpovertyin2018.6
Figure1PopulationandGDPinBeninandTogo
Togo4201539
Togo
8442580
GDP
2020($)
Population
2020
Benin
8705923
Benin
12643123
Sources:TheWorldBank,/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?locations=BJ-TG;TheInternationalMonetaryFund,https://data.imf.org/?sk=4c514d48-b6ba-49ed-8ab9-52b0c1a0179b
1TheWorldBank,‘GDPpercapita(currentUS$)–Togo,Benin|Data()’,/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=TG-BJ.
2TheWorldBankGDPperCapita;RepublicofBenin,MinistryofEconomyandFinance,Communique,‘Beninisnowamiddleincomecountry’,Benin,7March2020.
3TheCentralBankofWestAfricanStates,‘GDPanditsComponentsatNominalValues’.
4UnitedNations,UNComtradeDatabase,/.
5UnitedNations,UNComtradeDatabase.
6TheWorldBank,‘PovertyHeadcountRatioatNationalPovertyLines(PercentofPopulation)–Togo,Benin’.
4MacroeconomicResilienceinBeninandTogo
TOGO
Figure2CompositionofGDPinBeninandTogo(2020)
-5%
-485257,58
24%
2297387,56
10%
989055,23
61%
5904737,37
BENIN
-8%
-390000,00
20%
992098,83
11%
570400,00
61%
3029040,17
Consumption
Government
Investment
Netexports
Source:TheInternationalMonetaryFund,/?sk=4c514d48-b6ba-49ed-8ab9-52b0c1a0179b
ThenatureofmacroeconomiccrisesinBeninandTogo
Thispaperdistinguishesbetweennationalcrisesthatoriginatewithinthecountryandregional/globalcrisesthatoriginateoutsidethecountryandaffecttheregionand/ortheworld.Themostprominentregional/globalcrisesobservedinBeninandTogoincludethe2008globalfinancial
crisis,extensivefloodinginWestAfricain2010,theoutbreakofEbolain2014inbothcountries,
andtheglobalCOVID-19crisisof2020.BeninandTogowerenotseverelyaffectedfromahealthperspectivebyeitherCOVID-19orEbola,andneithercountryhadasinglecaseofEbola,butbothcountrieswereaffectedbytheglobaleconomicconsequencesofthepandemics.
NationalcriseswhichaffectedBeninduringthisperiodincludeatradedisputewithNigeria
in2005andpoliticalinstabilityinthecountrysurroundingtheunsuccessfulimpeachmentof
PresidentBoniYayibecauseofhisallegedinvolvementinaPonzischemein2010.7Thetrade
disputewasduetoNigeriaincreasingthenumberofprohibitedgoodsthatcouldbeimportedinanattempttolimittheamountofgoodsbeingreimportedfromBeninintoNigeria.8National
crisesinTogoduringthisperiodwerealmostentirelytheresultofpoliticalinstabilityrelatedto
7Reuters,‘BeninpresidentaccusedofroleinPonzischeme’,/article/benin-swindle-idUSLDE67I1RP20100819/.
8AfricanDevelopmentBank(AFDB),‘BeninCountryStrategyPaper2005-2009’,/en/documents/document/2005-2009-benin-country-strategy-paper-12963.
5MacroeconomicResilienceinBeninandTogo
Realgrowthrates
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
thecountry’spoliticalinstitutionsandelectionsoccurringrespectivelyin2000,2004,2010,2012and2020.Politicalinstabilitywasparticularlyevidentfrom2004,priortothedeathofpresidentGnassingbéEyadémain2005,whowascontroversiallysucceededbyhissonFaureGnassingbéEyadémaafterabriefinterregnumfollowinghisfather’sdeath.
Figures3and4plottheevolutionofGDPpercapitagrowthinBeninandTogo.Theredshadedareasrepresentnationalcrisesandtheblueareasrepresentregional/globalcrises.Overall,
Benin’seconomicperformancewasmorevolatileasitwasseeminglymoreexposedtoglobal
andregionalshocksthanTogo’seconomy.Itisnoteworthythatoverthesametimeperiodbotheconomiesappearedtobecomemoreresilienttoexogenousandendogenousshocks.InBenin,theeconomydidnotexperiencenegativegrowthratesafter2014whereasinTogo,thecountrydidnotexperiencegrowthfrom2007to2019.
Figure3Benin:EvolutionofGDPpercapita
0,05
0,04
0,03
0,02
0,01
0
-0,01
-0,02
Crisis3
Natural
disasters
Crisis2
Global
financialcrisis
Crisis1
Monetaryshocks
NATIONALREGIONALREGIONALREGIONALREGIONAL
Crisis6
COVID-19
NATIONAL
Crisis4
Financialcrisis
Crisis5
Ebola
Source:TheCentralBankofWestAfricanStates,GDPanditsComponentsatNominalValues,/rapportPredefini.php
6MacroeconomicResilienceinBeninandTogo
Realgrowthrates
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Figure4Togo:EvolutionofGDPpercapita
0,06
0,04
0,02
0
-0,02
-0,04
-0,06
NATIONAL
Crisis1
Presidentialelections
NATIONAL
Crisis2
Presidentialelections
REGIONAL
Crisis3
Global
financialcrisis
REGIONAL
Crisis4
Naturaldisasters
NATIONAL
Crisis5
Presidentialelections
REGIONAL
Crisis6
Ebola
REGIONAL
Crisis8
COVID-19
NATIONAL
Crisis7
Presidential
elections
Source:TheCentralBankofWestAfricanStates,GDPanditsComponentsatNominalValues,/rapportPredefini.php
Table1Averagegrowthratesduringcrisisperiods
GDP
Consumption
Government
Investment
Exports
Benin
-0.35%
-1.82%
4.25%
-1.52%
-7.98%
Togo
-0.34%
-1.12%
2.70%
-1.05%
-4.10%
Source:TheCentralBankofWestAfricanStates,GDPanditsComponentsatNominalValues,/rapportPredefini.php
ThecrisesinthetwocountrieshadvaryingimpactsonthecomponentsofGDP.Table1presentstheaveragegrowthrateofthecomponentsofGDPduringtheperiodsofcrisis.InbothBenin
andTogo,consumptionwasnegativelyaffectedduringperiodsofnegativegrowth.ConsumptiondeclinedslightlymoreinBeninthaninTogo(approximately2%and1%respectively).However,
therewasasharpcontrastbetweenthetwocountrieswithrespecttogovernmentspending.ThegrowthrateofgovernmentspendinginBeninwas4.25%duringperiodsofnegativeGDPgrowth.ThiswasconsistentwiththegovernmentofBeninimplementingcounter-cyclicalgovernment
spendingtooffsetthenegativeeffectsofthecrises.InTogo,alowergrowthrateofgovernmentspendingduringtheseperiodswasapparent.Finally,weobservethatinvestmentandexports
weremorenegativelyaffectedinBeninduringperiodsofcrisesthaninTogo.
7MacroeconomicResilienceinBeninandTogo
Governmentexpenditurepercapita(Growthrate)
Taxrevenuepercapita(Growthrate)
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Generalgovernmentnetlending/borrowing(%ofGDP)
Figures5and6showfiscalpolicyresponsetoeconomicfluctuationsinBeninandTogo
respectively.Thefiguresplotthegrowthratesoftaxrevenueperpersonandgovernment
expenditure.Alsoincludedinthefiguresisnetlending/borrowingasapercentageofGDP.In
Benin,taxrevenuetendedtodeclineduringperiodsofcriseswhilegovernmentexpenditure
increasedbeforedecreasingfollowingcrises.Thisreflectsresponsiblefiscalpolicymaking.Also
notethenegativegrowthrateintaxrevenuein2012inBenin.Thiscouldbeexplainedbya
reformtocustomsproceduresatthePortofCotonouthatcauseddiversionsoftradetoports
inneighbouringcountries.9Thereformsincluded‘(i)aone-stopwindowatthePortofCotonou;(ii)anenhancedimport-value-verificationprogram;and(iii)acustoms-valuationsystembasedonactualtransactionalvalues’.10ThegovernmentofBeninrespondedresponsiblybyreducing
expenditureproportionally.Consistentwiththeoverallexpenditurepattern,government
Figure5Benin:Taxrevenue,governmentspendinganddebttoGDP
0,5
0,4
0,3
0,2
0,1
0
-0,1
-0,2
NATIONAL
Crisis1
Monetaryshocks
REGIONAL
Crisis2
Global
financialcrisis
NATIONAL
Crisis4
Financialcrisis
REGIONAL
Crisis3
Naturaldisasters
REGIONAL
Crisis5
Ebola
REGIONAL
Crisis6
COVID-19
-2
-3
-1
1
0
-4
-5
Taxrevenuepercapita(Growthrate)
Governmentexpenditurepercapita(Growthrate)
Generalgovernmentnetlending/borrowing(%ofGDP)
Sources:InternationalMonetaryFundDatamapper,/external/datamapper/profile/BEN;UnitedNationsGovernmentRevenueDataset,/content/grd-data-download
9InternationalMonetaryFund,‘Benin:ThirdReviewUndertheExtendedCreditFacilityArrangement’,
/view/journals/
002/2012/099/article-A001-en.xml#A01fig02.
10IMF,Benin:ThirdReview.
8MacroeconomicResilienceinBeninandTogo
Governmentexpenditurepercapita(Growthrate)
Taxrevenuepercapita(Growthrate)
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Generalgovernmentnetlending/borrowing(%ofGDP)
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
-7
-8
Figure6Togo:Taxrevenue,governmentspendinganddebttoGDP
0,6
0,5
0,4
0,3
0,2
0,1
0
-0,1
-0,2
-0,3
-0,4
NATIONAL
Crisis2
Presidentialelections
NATIONAL
Crisis1
Presidentialelections
REGIONAL
Crisis3
Global
financialcrisis
REGIONAL
Crisis6
Ebola
REGIONALNATIONAL
Crisis4Crisis5
NaturalPresidential
disasterselections
NATIONAL
Crisis7
Presidential
elections
REGIONAL
Crisis8
COVID-19
Taxrevenuepercapita(Growthrate)
Governmentexpenditurepercapita(Growthrate)
Generalgovernmentnetlending/borrowing(%ofGDP)
Sources:InternationalMonetaryFundDatamapper,/external/datamapper/profile/BEN;UnitedNationsGovernmentRevenueDataset,/content/grd-data-download
netlendingdecreasedduringcrisisperiodsandincreasedafterwards.Thissuggeststhatthe
governmentuseddebttofinancestimulusspendingduringcrisesandactivelyattemptedto
reducethestockafterwards.However,itshouldbenotedthatdebtstockhadsteadilyincreasedfrom2007andacceleratedduringthepandemic.Thiscanbeseenbynetlendingwhichhad
beennegativeforalmosttheentiresampleperiod.Anegativenetlendingpositionimpliesthatthegovernmentisborrowing.However,grossdebtremainedlowfortheregionat52%ofGDPin2023.ItisimportantfortheBeningovernmenttomakesurethatitremainssustainable.11
11InternationalMonetaryFund,‘CentralGovernmentGrossDebt’,/external/datamapper/GGXWDG_NGDP@WEO/BEN?zoom=BEN&highlight=BEN.
9MacroeconomicResilienceinBeninandTogo
Inflation,consumerprices(Annual%)
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Moneysupply(Growthrate)
1,00
0,80
0,60
0,40
0,20
0
-0,20
ForTogo,governmentspendingtendedtobeprocyclicalduringperiodsofnationalcrises.
Thegrowthratedecreasedduringallnationalcrises.Duringregionalcrises,governmentspendingwaslesspredictable.Theonlyclearexampleofcounter-cyclicalgovernmentspendingduring
regionalcriseswasduringtheCOVID-19pandemic,whichsawalargeincreaseinthegrowthrateofgovernmentspending.Inaddition,taxrevenuetendedtobeaffectedbynationalcrisesmore
thanbyglobal/regionalcrises.Withtheexceptionofthepresidentialelectionsin2018,allnationalcriseswereassociatedwithanegativegrowthrateintaxrevenue.Forglobal/regionalcriseswe
sawanegativegrowthratefortaxrevenueduringthefloodingin2010andduringtheEbolacrisis.
Asfornetlending/borrowing,thisappearstohavebeenrelativelyunrelatedtobothnationalandglobal/regionalcrises.Fortheperiod2008to2016,netlendingdeclineddramatically.
Thisindicatesthatthegovernmentspentmorethantherevenueitgenerated.Netborrowing
increaseddramaticallypriortothe2018nationalcrisis,whichindicatesarelativelybalanced
budgetwithnetlendingbeingclosetozero.Finally,netlendingdecreaseddramaticallyduringtheCOVID-19crisisasaresultofincreaseddebttofinancecounter-cyclicalgovernmentspending.
Figure7Benin:Moneysupply(M1)andinflation
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
REGIONAL
Crisis3
Naturaldisasters
NATIONAL
Crisis1
Monetaryshocks
REGIONAL
Crisis4
Ebola
REGIONAL
Crisis2
Global
financial
crisis
NATIONAL
Crisis4
Financial
Crisis
REGIONAL
Crisis5
COVID-19
Inflation,consumerprices
Moneysupply
Source:AfricanDevelopmentBankSocioEconomicDatabase,1960–2022,/nbyenxf/afdb-socio-economic-database-1960-2022#.
10MacroeconomicResilienceinBeninandTogo
Inflation,consumerprices(Annual%)
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Moneysupply(Growthrate)
0,8
0,7
0,6
0,5
0,4
0,3
0,2
0,1
0
-0,1
Next,weconsiderthemonetarypolicyresponseinthetwocountriesbyexaminingthegrowth
rateofthemoneysupply(M1)andtheinflationrate.InBenin,moneygrowthtendedtoincreaseduringcrises,withtheonlyexceptionbeingthenaturaldisastersin2010wherethemoneysupplydeclined(Figure7).Theexpansionsinthemoneysupplygenerallyinducedlargefluctuationsin
inflationalthough,sincethebeginningof2014,inflationhasbeenmuchmorestable.
InTogo,theresponseofmonetarypolicytocriseswaslessconsistentthanhadbeenthecaseinBenin.Duringthefirst,secondandthirdpresidentialelections,andtheCOVID-19pandemic,monetarypolicywasexpansionary(Figure8).
Figure8Togo:Moneysupply(M2)andinflation
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
REGIONALREGIONALNATIONAL
NATIONAL
Crisis1
Presidentialelections
REGIONAL
Crisis6
Ebola
REGIONAL
Crisis8
NATIONAL
Crisis7
NATIONAL
Crisis3
Global
financialcrisis
Crisis4
Naturaldisasters
Crisis5
Presidentialelections
Crisis2
PresidentialCOVID-19elections
Presidential
elections
Inflation,consumerprices
Moneysupply
Source:AfricanDevelopmentBankSocioEconomicDatabase,1960–2022,/nbyenxf/afdb-socio-economic-database-1960-2022#
Inaddition,thegrowthrateofthemoneysupplywasquitehighduringtheglobalfinancialcrisis.Agrowthrateofapproximately20%from2006to2009wasmaintained.Finally,weobserve
counter-cyclicalmonetarypolicyduringtheEbolacrisis.Followingthesecondcrisisassociatedwiththepresidentialelection,expansionarymonetarypolicycausedlargeincreasesininflation.Duringthefinancialcrisis,alargeincreaseintheinflationratecouldalsobeobserved.Inlateryears,inflationappearstohavebeenbettermanagedwithexpansionarymonetarypolicynot
11MacroeconomicResilienceinBeninandTogo
leadingtolargeincreasesininflation.However,thistrendappearstohavebeenbrokenfollowingtheCOVID-19pandemic(notshowninthefigure).In2022,inflationreached7.6%followingtheexpansionarymonetarypolicyduringtheCOVID-19crisis.12
12InternationalMonetaryFund,‘InflationRate,AverageConsumerPrices’,/external/datamapper/PCPIPCH@WEO/
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