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Market
AMISMonitor
Contents
No.115February2024
Withtheonsetof2024,commoditymarketsremainrelativelycalm,atleastcomparedtotherecentpast.Wheat,maizeandsoybeanexportpriceswereattheirlowestofthepasttwoyears.Ricepricesremaintheexception:duetoElNino-inducedproductionshortfallsandIndia'songoingexportrestrictions,thesearealmostathirdhigherthantheywereoneyearago.Marketswillbewatchingthedevel-
opmentofBrazilsoybeanproductionwhich
havebeenundersomestressduetobelow
normalrainfall.
Yet,potentialforshocksabounds:ship-
pingdisruptionsinthePanamaCanal,theRedSeaandmanyinlandwaterwayscouldthreatenestablishedtraderoutes,andalterthecompetitivenessofdifferentorigins,with
implicationsforplantingintentionsfor2024
crops.
Featurearticle:
ShippingDisruptions2
Worldsupply-demandoutlook3
Cropmonitor5
Policydevelopments8
Internationalprices12
Futuresmarkets14
Marketindicators15
Fertilizeroutlook17
Oceanfreightmarkets18
Explanatorynotes19
Marketsataglance
▲EasingNeutral
√Tightening
FROM
PREVIOUS
FORECASTS
FROM
PREVIOUS
SEASON
WHEAT
MAIZE
RICE
SOYBEANS
TheMarketMonitorisaproductoftheAgriculturalMarketInformationSystem(AMIS).Itcoversinternationalmarketsforwheat,maize,rice
andsoybeans,gvingasynopsisofmajormarketdevelopmentsandthepolicyandothermarketdriversbehindthem.TheanalysisisacollectiveassessmentofthemarketsituationandoutlookbytheteninternationalorganizationsandentiiesthatformtheAMISSecretariat.
Organizationof
FoodandAgriculture
theUnitedNations
业
儿IFAD
IFPRI°
IGC
OECDwonLDEAKORoU
WORLDTRADEORGANIZATION
2AMISMarketMonitorNo.115February2024
Featurearticle
ShippingDisruptions:focusonthePanamaCanalandtheRedSea
WhileshippingdisruptionsaffectingflowsfromUkrainianBlackSeaPortsfollowingthecessationoftheBlackSeaGrainInitiativeinJuly2023werepartiallyaddressedbyimplementationofa“humanitariancorridor”,shippingin2023wasmarredbystrainsinotherchokepointsaffect-ingmovementofgoodsglobally.
Particularlyinthesecondhalfof2023,lowwaterlevelsoninlandwaterwaystransportingagriculturalcommodi-tiesforexportsdownstreamandagriculturalinputsup-stream,includingtheRhineinGermany,theMississippiRiverintheUnitedStatesofAmericaandtheTapajosRiverinBrazil,constrainedvolumesandchallengedinter-naltransportationandlogisticsinmajorexportingcoun-tries.
Similarly,lowwaterlevelsresultingfromextremedrought,andexacerbatedbytheongoingElNiñoevent,cappedthesizeandthenumberofvesselsinthePanamaCanallocks,whichusuallyhandlecrossingsofasmanyas38vesselsperday.PanamaCanalLocksoperateonfreshwater.FirstreductionswereintroducedinJuly2023,andinJanuary2024reachednearly40percentcomparedtolastyear,leadingtoextendedwaitingtimeanddi-versions.Whilecontainertrafficcanbookapassingslotorunloadintermodalcontainersbyrail,tankersanddrycargohavebeenaffectedbylongerwaitingtimeanddisruptions.ThePanamaCanalrouteshortenstransit,amongothers,forshipmentsofgrains,oilseedsandcot-tonfromtheUSGulfcoasttodestinationsinAsia,aswellashorticultureproductsfromChileandPerutoEuropeandUSEastcoastdestinations.DryconditionsarelikelytopersistuntilMay2024,erodingPanama’sexportearn-ingsfromcrossingfees.
Elsewhere,disruptionsinandaroundtheBabel-MandebbetweenYemenandtheHornofAfricacausedbyat-tacksoncommercialvesselsalongtheshippingrouteconnectingtheIndianOceanwiththeMediterraneanSeaviatheRedSeaandtheSuezCanal,havebeencon-strainingtrafficsincelate2023.Theroutecarriesslightlyovertenpercentofglobalmaritimetradevolume,withenergyproducts(mostlycrudeoilandLPG),beingthemostsignificantones.Whileearlierattacksappearedtohavebeendirectedatcontainervessels,inJanuary2024adrybulkcarrierandanoiltankerwerealsohit.Anum-berofshippingcompaniesrespondedtothethreatofat-tacksbyreroutingmaritimetrafficviatheCapeofGoodHope(discussedinthefreightsection).Evenifvesselsarenotrerouted,insurancecostsforpassingtheStrait
haveincreased.UNCTADestimatesthatthenumberofvesselsclearingtheSuezCanalhasdeclinedbyover40percentinthepasttwomonths,constrainingoneofthemainsourcesofforeigncurrencyforEgypt.
TheeventsintheRedSeahavealreadyimpactedglobalvaluechains,suchasdelayeddeliveriesofcomponentsinjustintimedeliverysystems,withsomeindustrialsectorsreportingdelaysinarrivalsofnecessarycom-ponents.Foragriculturalcommodities,thepassagese-curesexportsofgrainsandoilseedsfromtheEU,Rus-sianFederationandUkrainetoAsiaandeastAfrica.Sim-ilarly,riceandothercommoditiesheadeastwardsfromAsia.Fertilizertrade,includingpotashfromRussianFed-erationtoAsia,alsotransitsthroughtheRedSea.
Ricetendstobeshippedincontainers.QuotationsforAsia–Europecontainerizedshippinghaveincreasedbyuptosixtimes,dependingonthetiming.Thebench-markShanghaiContainerizedFreightIndexhasdoubledbetweenmid-December2023andmid-January2024.Inthedrybulkcarriers’sector(usedtotransportasignifi-cantshareofgrains,oilseedsaswellassomefertilizers),broadeffectsarenotyetseen,althoughlongershippingrouteswillincreasethecosts-someofwhichdependdirectlyonthecostofcrudeoil.Thereisalsoaconcernabouttheimpactoflongershippingroutesonperishableproductsandliveanimals,especiallythoseheadingtoNearEastmarkets.
CompetitivenessofBlackSeaandotherEuropeanori-ginstodestinationsinAsiamightbeerodedbyhighershippingcosts,whilethedevelopmentscouldbeben-eficialforproducersontheAmericancontinent.Highershippingcostswillimpactfoodimportbillsandsubse-quentlyretailprices,althoughtheymightnotfullytrans-lateintohigherconsumerprices.Lowerfob(andfarm-gate)pricesmightabsorbsomeoftheincreasesinship-pingcosts.
Shouldenergypricessignificantlyincrease(asaresultoftheattacks,orcombinedwithotherfactors),higheren-ergycostswillhavespillovereffectsontheagriculturalsectorduetoitshighenergyintensityincludinguseofenergyinNitrogenfertilizerproduction.
UNCTADwarnsthatthecumulativeeffectofthesedis-ruptionstranslatesintoextendedcargotraveldistances,escalatingtradecosts,andasurgeingreenhousegasemissionsfromshippinghavingtotravelgreaterdis-tancesandatgreaterspeed.
INMILLIONTONNESINMILLIONTONNESINMILLIONTONNESINMILLIONTONNES
USDA
IGC
2022/23est
2023/24f'cast
2022/23est
2023/24f'cast
12Jan
11Jan
789.2
651.4
784.9
648.3
803.7
666.0
788.3
651.7
1062.5
788.0
1056.5
781.1
1076.7
807.2
1070.0
794.2
783.0
635.0
796.4
642.9
795.1
652.3
804.4
655.0
216.1
202.8
213.3
200.8
207.6
194.1
197.9
185.2
271.6
132.7
260.0
126.5
281.6
141.3
265.6
126.6
USDA
IGC
2022/23est
2023/24f'cast
2022/23est
2023/24f'cast
12Jan
11Jan
1155.6
878.4
1235.7
946.9
1164.7
887.5
1230.1
941.3
1466.1
979.8
1536.3
1041.4
1451.2
985.9
1504.8
1040.0
1156.8
857.8
1199.6
893.6
1176.6
868.1
1217.9
907.0
180.5
161.8
198.5
175.5
179.7
160.6
176.0
156.0
300.6
94.5
325.2
113.4
274.6
98.6
286.8
113.0
USDA
IGC
2022/23est
2023/24f'cast
2022/23est
2023/24f'cast
12Jan
11Jan
513.0
367.0
513.5
368.9
514.5
368.5
511.1
366.5
696.2
437.3
689.3
438.1
690.1
437.8
681.2
434.3
525.0
370.0
519.9
370.0
520.0
369.2
515.7
367.7
52.4
49.8
52.2
49.4
51.0
48.0
49.7
46.4
175.8
69.2
167.2
65.2
170.2
65.6
165.6
63.3
USDA
IGC
2022/23est
2023/24f'cast
2022/23est
2023/24f'cast
12Jan
11Jan
375.4
355.1
399.0
378.1
371.1
350.8
392.4
371.6
473.4
423.9
500.8
446.2
421.0
372.7
449.7
390.2
364.7
248.2
383.7
263.2
363.7
247.2
383.6
263.2
171.7
70.8
170.9
68.9
171.6
64.7
168.0
66.0
101.9
68.1
114.6
78.6
57.3
18.5
66.1
25.0
AMISMarketMonitorNo.115February20243
Worldsupply-demandoutlook
WHEATproductionin2023still2.2percentbelowthelevel
harvestedin2022,despiteanupwardrevisionthismonthlargelyfromhigherestimatesforCanada.
Utilizationin2023/24liftedsinceDecember,largelyonanotherupwardrevisiontofeeduseintheEU,andforecasttoincreaseby2.0percentabovethe2022/23level.
Tradein2023/24(July/June)raisedthismonthonimprovedexportprospectsforUkraineandimportdemandfromBrazil,China,andseveralcountriesinAsia;butstillfallingbelowthe2022/23level.
Stocks(endingin2024)forecastnearlyunchangedcomparedto
Decemberbutpointingtoa1.1percentcontractionbelowopeninglevelsfollowingrevisionsofhistoricalinventories.
Wheat
FAO-AMIS
2022/23est
2023/24
f'cast
7Dec
1Feb
Prod.
805.9
668.2
787.1
650.5
788.5
651.9
Supply
1105.4
833.7
1105.4
827.3
1111.3
833.2
Utiliz.
778.9
636.2
791.4
643.4
794.3
646.3
Trade
200.0
186.5
194.1
184.1
197.4
186.7
Stocks
323.1
181.6
319.3
179.7
319.7
179.3
MAIZEproductionforecastfor2023now5.2percentabovethe2022levelfollowinganotheradjustmentmostlyreflectingupward
revisionsinChina,theEU,theUS,andTürkiye.
Utilizationin2023/24raisedslightlythismonthonhigherfeeduse,especiallyinChina,andsettoincreaseby1.5percentabovethe2022/23level.
Tradein2023/24(July/June)raisedthismonthonlargeranticipated
purchasesfromChinaandbiggersalesanticipatedinUkraine,Türkiye,andtheRussianFederation.
Stocks(endingin2024)revisedupwardsthismonthwithlargerinventoriesexpectedinChinaandMexico,andnowsurpassingopeninglevelsby10.3percent.
Maize
FAO-AMIS
2022/23est
2023/24
f'cast
7Dec
1Feb
Prod.
1168.9
891.7
1219.0
934.0
1229.4
940.6
Supply
1476.1
1042.2
1502.6
1063.4
1513.9
1070.9
Utiliz.
1187.6
889.2
1201.8
899.4
1205.5
900.1
Trade
182.9
163.8
180.5
160.5
186.1
161.1
Stocks
285.8
131.6
309.1
152.4
315.2
152.6
RICEproductionin2023/24loweredslightly,asadownwardrevisionforChinaismostlycompensatedbyoutputupgradesforvariousothercountries,especiallyGuinea,MaliandNepal.
Utilizationin2023/24stillseenstagnatingatthe2022/23level,despiteamildupwardrevisionsinceDecember.
Tradein2024downgradedsomewhat,primarilyonlessbuoyantimportexpectationsforNepalandNigeria.Amongexporters,shipmentsby
Indiadowngradedthemost.
Stocks(2023/24carry-out)loweredasdownscaledexpectationsfor
China,PakistanandThailandoutweighanupgrade,namelyforIndia.Despitetherevision,globalricereservesstillseenrisingby1.1percenty/y.
Rice
FAO-AMIS
2022/23est
2023/24
f'cast
7Dec
1Feb
Prod.
521.2
378.4
524.9
381.8
524.6
383.0
Supply
718.3
474.9
721.4
478.7
721.3
480.1
Utiliz.
522.6
375.7
521.6
378.3
522.2
379.4
Trade
52.7
49.9
52.2
48.9
51.5
48.1
Stocks
196.7
97.1
199.7
99.5
198.8
99.7
SOYBEAN2023/24productionvirtuallystable,asupward
revisionsinArgentinaandtheUScompensatedalowerforecastforBrazilamidunfavourableweatherconditions.
Utilizationin2023/24steadyduetooffsettingrevisionsinanumberofcountries,confirmingexpectationsofa5.8-percenty/yrecoveryafterstagnatingfortwoconsecutiveseasons.
Tradein2023/24(Oct/Sep)liftedmarginally,primarilyreflectingimportpurchasesbyChina,whileexportforecastswereraisedforArgentinaandtheUS.
Stocks(2023/24carry-out)loweredfurther,mostlyonexpectationsofstockreleasesinBrazilfollowingreducedsupplies.Globally,a13
percenty/yrecoveryincarry-overinventoriesisexpected.
Soybean
FAO-AMIS
2022/23est
2023/24
f'cast
7Dec
1Feb
Prod.
371.8
351.6
395.2
374.4
395.5
374.7
Supply
416.8
377.5
442.6
398.8
438.8
395.0
Utiliz.
366.5
250.5
388.0
269.0
388.6
269.0
Trade
171.0
71.1
167.1
69.3
168.2
69.4
Stocks
43.3
20.3
51.8
29.3
49.0
26.0
WorldBalances
DatashowninthesecondrowsrefertoworldaggregateswithoutChina;worldtradedatarefertoexports;andworldtradewithoutChinaexcludesexportstoChina.Toreviewandcomparedata,bycountryandcommodity,acrossthreemainsources,goto
/#/market-database/compare-sources
Estimatesandforecastsmaydifferacrosssourcesformanyreasons,includingdifferentmethodologies.FormoreinformationseeExplanatorynotesonthelastpageofthisreport.
+i
4AMISMarketMonitorNo.115February2024
Worldsupply-demandoutlook
Revisions(FAO-AMIS)to2023/24forecastssincethepreviousreport
WHEAT
MAIZE
RICE
SOYBEANS
Production
Imports
Utilization
Exports
Stocks
Production
Imports
Utilization
Exports
Stocks
Production
Imports
Utilization
Exports
Stocks
Production
Imports
Utilization
Exports
Stocks
WORLD
1373
3365
2891
3355
342
10390
5609
3630
5615
6085
-283
-765
590
-779
-872
328
1148
570
1102
-2805
TotalAMIS
1163
1400
2577
3175
-656
10897
4600
3101
5115
6920
-1619
-318
263
-730
-471
328
1148
570
1102
-2805
Argentina
-
-
370
-
1630
-
-
-
-
-
-
-3
33
-65
10
2000
50
500
800
500
Australia
69
-
515
-
1175
-
-
-
-
-
-
-20
15
20
45
-15
-
-16
1
-
Bangladesh
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Brazil
-1537
700
164
-500
-300
186
-
186
-
-
-2
-50
8
40
50
-3000
-
-500
-
-5000
Canada
2119
-
-131
500
350
144
-
-156
-
-
-
-
60
-
70
259
-
9
100
150
ChinaMainland
50
700
-
-
750
3842
5000
3000
-
5842
-1562
-
-528
-
-1100
40
1000
540
-
500
Egypt
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
EU
160
-
1002
-
-650
1561
-1000
62
-
500
-
-
-
-
-
48
-2
46
-
-
India
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
835
-700
700
-
-
-
-
-
Indonesia
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-50
-
-50
-
-
Japan
-
-
-
-
-
-
300
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-5
-
-15
-
10
Kazakhstan
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Mexico
-
-
400
-400
-
318
1000
318
-
2000
-
-
-20
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Nigeria
45
-
45
-
-
-1410
-
-1240
-
-170
-119
-250
-239
-
-80
-
-
-
-
-
Philippines
-
-
-
-
-
-100
-
-100
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Rep.ofKorea
-
-
-
-
-
-
200
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
RussianFed.*
-230
-
-
-
1352
545
-
-455
1000
-
-
-
-
-
-
100
-
-
-
100
SaudiArabia
-
-
-
-
50
-
-
-
-
-
1
-70
-49
-
110
-
-
-
-
-
SouthAfrica
10
-
10
-
-
-14
-
-14
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Thailand
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-110
-
-360
-
-
-
-
-
Türkiye
200
-
-
-
150
2500
-900
-300
2100
-
-
-
-
-
-
8
-
8
-
-
Ukraine**
278
-
-
4000
-3722
600
-
-
2000
-1400
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
UK
-1
-
229
-425
-461
-
-
-104
15
-10
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
US
-
-
-27
-
-980
2725
-
1904
-
158
-44
75
-
-25
84
950
-
-100
200
940
VietNam
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
108
-
258
-
-
-7
100
148
1
-5
Inthousandtonnes
Note
Onlysignificantchanges(ofmorethan1000tonnes)aredisplayedinthetable.
*InformationfortheRussianFederationincludesstatisticaldatafortheAutonomousRepublicofCrimeaandthecityofSevastopol,Ukraine,temporarilyoccupiedbytheRussianFederation.
**InformationforUkraineexcludesstatisticaldataconcerningtheAutonomousRepublicofCrimea,thecityofSevastopolandtheDonetsk,Luhansk,KhersonandZaporizhzhiaregions.TheinformationispresentedwithoutprejudicetorelevantUNGeneralAssemblyandUNSecurityCouncilresolutions,whichreaffirmtheterritorialintegrityofUkraine.
+i
AMISMarketMonitorNo.115February2024
5
Cropmonitor
Cropconditionsaroundtheworld
Dottedlinesrepresentunfinalizedborders
Wheat
CropconditionmapsynthesizinginfomationforallfourAMIScropsasof28January.Cropcanditionsoverthemaingrowingareasforwheat,maize,rice,andsoybeanarebasedonacombinationofnationalandregionalcropanalystinputsandearthobservationdata.Onlycropsthatareinother-than-favourableconditionsaredisplayedonthemapwiththeircropsymbol.
Conditionsataglance
Wheat
Inthesouthernhemisphere,harvestingiswrappingupinAr-
gentina.Inthenorthernhemisphere,winterwheatisunder
mixedconditionsinpartsofEurope,theBlackSearegion,
theUS,andCanada.
Maize
Inthesouthernhemisphere,conditionsarefavourablein
ArgentinaandSouthAfricawhileharvestingisbeginningin
Brazilforthespring-plantedcropundermixedconditions.
ConditionsarefavourableinIndiafortheRabicrop.
Rice
InIndia,transplantingoftheRabicropcontinues.InBangladesh,AusseasonriceharvestiswrappingupasBoroseasonriceissown.InSoutheastAsia,wet-seasonriceisbeginninginIndonesiaasthesowingofdry-seasonricerampsupinthenortherncountries.
Soybeans
Inthesouthernhemisphere,harvestingisbeginninginBrazilundermixedconditionsassowingiswrappingupinAr-gentinaunderfavourableconditions.
OngoingElNinoandPositiveIOD
TheongoingstrongElNinoeventisforecasttoweakendur-ingthenextseveralmonths.ENSO-neutralconditionsarelikelyduringApriltoJune(73percentchance).Long-rangeoutlooksindicateapossiblereturntoLaNinaconditionslaterthisyear,witha64percentchanceofaLaNinaeventbyAugusttoOc-tober2024,basedontheCPC/IRIforecast.
ENinoeventstendtoenhanceprecipitationinCentralAsia,southernNorthAmerica,south-easternSouthAmerica,andsouth-easternChina.Drier-than-averageconditionstendtooc-curinnorthemSouthAmerica,partsofthenorthernU.S.and
Canada,SouthernAfrica,theMaritimeContinent,andnorthern
Australia.
PositiveIndianOceanDipole(IOD)conditionscontinuetoweakenandwilllikelyreturntoneutralduringFebruary2024.Globally,2023wasthewarmestyearonrecord,andthewarm-inginfluenceofElNinowilllikelycontinuethisupwardtrendinto2024.Warmertemperatureswillexacerbaterainfalldeficitsduetohigherevaporation.
Source:UCSBClimateHazardsCenter
6
AMISMarketMonitorNo.115February2024
Cropmonitor
ConditionsDrivers
ExceptionalWatchOut-of-SeasonWetDryKExtremeFventConflict
FavourablePoorNoDataHot家CoolDelayed-OnsetSocio-Economic
Summariesbycrop
SouthAfrical,RussianFederation²,Canada³,Indonesia⁴
Wheat
InArgentina,harvestingiswrappingupundermixedcon-ditionsastheearlierseveredroughtaffectedmuchofthecountry.IntheEU,conditionsaremixedduetoacoldspellinthenorth,excessiverainfallincentralparts,anddrynessalongtheMediterranean.IntheUK,conditionsaremixedduetoexcessiverainfall.InTürkiye,conditionsarefavourable.InUkraine,conditionsarefavourableawayfromthewarzonewithadequatesnowcoverandanincreaseinsoilmoisture.
arefavourableassoilprecipitation;however,dry
IntheRussianFederation,conditions
moistureimprovedduetoample
conditionsremaininpartoftheCaucasus.InChina,conditionsarefavourablewithaboosttosoilmoisturereservesreceivedinDecember.InIndia,sowingiswrappingupunderfavourableconditionswithanincreaseintotalsownareacomparedto2023.IntheUS,conditionsaregenerallyfavourablealbeitwithrecentextremecoldtemperaturescombinedwithlimitedsnowcoverincreasingthepotentialforwinterkillintheNorthernHighPlains.Thereisareductioninthetotalsownareacomparedtolastyear.InCanada,winterwheatconditionsarefavourableinthemainproducingprovincesofOntarioandManitoba;how-ever,alackofadequatesnowcovercombinedwithextremelylowtemperaturesispotentiallyimpactingcropsinthePrairies.
Maize
InBrazil,harvestingisbeginningforthespring-plantedcrop(smallerseason)undermixedconditionsduetoalackofrainandhightemperaturesearlierintheseason;however,arecentreturnofrainsisexpectedtofacilitatetherecoveryofthecrop.Areductioninthetotalsownareaisexpectedcomparedtolastyear.Sowingofthesummer-plantedcrop(largerseason)isbe-ginningunderfavourableconditions.InArgentina,conditionsarefavourableforboththeearly-plantedcrop(largerseason),whichisinthefloweringandgrain-filingstage,andthelate-plantedcrop(smallerseason),whichisintheearly-vegetativestage.InSouthAfrica,conditionsarefavourablefollowingwidespreadrainsinceearlyDecember,however,temperaturesandrainfallduringFebruarywillbecritical.InMexico,harvestingiswrappingupfortheSpring-Summerseason(largerseason)asthesowingoftheAutumn-winterseason(smallerseason)continuesunderdryconditions.InIndia,sowingoftheRabicropiswrappingupunderfavourableconditions.
+iPiechartdescription
Eachslicerepresentsacountry'sshareoftotalAMISproduction(5-yearaverage),withthemainproducingcountries(95percentofproduction)shownindividuallyandtheremaining5percentgroupedintothe"OtherAMISCountries"categorySectionswithineachcountryareweightedbythesub-nationalproductionstatistics(5-yearaverage)oftherespectivecountryandaccountformultiplecroppingseasons(i.e.springandwinterwheat).Thelatevegetativetoreproductivecropgrowthstagesaregenerallythemostsensitiveperiodsforcropdevelopment.
AMIS
Market
Monitor
No.115
February
2024
7
Cropmonitor
Conditions
Exceptional
Favourable
Watch
Poor
Out-of-Season
NoData
Drivers
Wet
Hot
Dry
Cool
ExtremeEvent
Delayed-Onset
Conflict
Socio-Economic
Japan¹,Brazil²
Rice
InIndia,transplantingofRabiriceisongoingunderfavourableconditionsintheeasternstatesandwithadelayinthesouthernstates,especiallyinKarnatakaduetodrynessleftoverfromthepreviousseason.InBangladesh,conditionsarefavourableasboththeharvestingoftheAusseasonrice(smallestseason)andsowingoftheBoroseasonrice(largestseason)wrapup.InIndonesia,conditionsarefavourableaswet-seasonricesow-ingcontinuesandtheharvestingofearliersowncropsbegins.InVietNam,thesowingofdry-seasonrice(winter-springrice)sbeginningintheMekongRiverDeltaunderfavourablecondi-tions.InThailand,dry-seasonriceconditionshaveimproved,althoughthedryweatherduringsowingisexpectedtoresultinareductioninthetotalsownareacomparedtolastyear.InthePhilippines,dry-seasonriceisunderfavourableconditionsduetoamplerainfallduringsowingandhigh-yieldseedassis-tancefromthegovernment.InBrazil,conditionsarefavourablewithanincreaseinsownareacomparedtolastyear.
Soybeans
InBrazil,asharvestingbegins,conditionsaremixedacrossmostofthecountryduetoalackofrainandhightemperaturesfromSeptembertomid-December.However,regularrainshavereturned,andconditionsarelikelytoimprovebeforeharvest.IntheSouth,conditionsarefavourabledespiteexcessiverainfall.InArgentina,sowingiswrappingupunderfavourablecondi-tionsacrossthecountry.Theearly-plantedcrop(typicallylargerseason)isinthereproductivestagesandthelate-plantedcrop(typicallysmallerseason)isemerging.
Informationoncropconditionsinnon-AMIScountries
canbefoundintheGEOGLAMEarlyWarningCropMon-
itor,published1February.
+iSourcesanddisclaimers
TheCropMonitorassessmentisconductedbyGEOGLAMwithinputsfromthefollowingpartners(inalphabeticalorder):Argentina(BuenosAiresGrainsExchange,INTA),AsiaRiceCountries(AFSIS,ASEAN+3&AsiaRiCE,Australia(ABARES&CSIRO),Brazil(CONAB&INPE,Canada(AAFC),China(CAS),EU(ECJRCMARS),Indonesia(LAPAN&MOA),International(CIMMYT,FAO,IFPRI&IRRI),Japan(JAXA),Mexico(SIAP),RussianFederation(IKI),SouthAfrica(ARC&GeoTerralmage&SANSA),Thailand(GISTDA&OAE),Ukraine(NASU-NSAU&UHMC),USA(NASA,UMD,USGS-FEWSNET,USDA(FAS,NASS),VietNam(VAST&VIMHEMARD).TheindingsandconclusionsinthisjaintmultiagencyreportareconsensualstatementsfromtheGEOGLAMexperts,anddonotnecessarlyrelectthoseoftheindividualagenciesrepresentedbytheseexperts.MoredetailedinformationontheGEOGLAMcropassessmentsisavailableat
.
8AMISMarket
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