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Page1of17
Forreleaseat2:00p.m.,EDT,March20,2024
SummaryofEconomicProjections
InconjunctionwiththeFederalOpenMarketCommittee(FOMC)meetingheldonMarch19–20,2024,meetingparticipantssubmittedtheirprojectionsofthemostlikelyoutcomesforrealgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)growth,theunemploymentrate,andinflationforeachyearfrom2024to2026andoverthelongerrun.Eachparticipant’sprojectionswerebasedoninformationavailableatthetimeofthemeeting,togetherwithherorhisassessmentofappropriatemonetarypolicy—includingapathforthefederalfundsrateanditslonger-runvalue—andassumptionsaboutotherfactorslikelytoaffecteconomicoutcomes.Thelonger-runprojectionsrepresenteachparticipant’sassessmentofthevaluetowhicheachvariablewouldbeexpectedtoconverge,overtime,underappropriatemonetarypolicyandintheabsenceoffurthershockstotheeconomy.“Appropriatemonetarypolicy”isdefinedasthefuturepathofpolicythateachparticipantdeemsmostlikelytofosteroutcomesforeconomicactivityandinflationthatbestsatisfyhisorherindividualinterpretationofthestatutorymandatetopromotemaximumemploymentandpricestability.
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Forreleaseat2:00p.m.,EDT,March20,2024
Table1.EconomicprojectionsofFederalReserveBoardmembersandFederalReserveBankpresidents,undertheirindividualassumptionsofprojectedappropriatemonetarypolicy,March2024
Percent
Variable
Median1
CentralTendency2
Range3
2024
2025
2026
Longer
run
2024
2025
2026
Longer
run
2024
2025
2026
Longer
run
ChangeinrealGDP
2.1
2.0
2.0
1.8
2.0–2.4
1.9–2.3
1.8–2.1
1.7–2.0
1.3–2.7
1.7–2.5
1.7–2.5
1.6–2.5
Decemberprojection
1.4
1.8
1.9
1.8
1.2–1.7
1.5–2.0
1.8–2.0
1.7–2.0
0.8–2.5
1.4–2.5
1.6–2.5
1.6–2.5
Unemploymentrate
4.0
4.1
4.0
4.1
3.9–4.1
3.9–4.2
3.9–4.3
3.8–4.3
3.8–4.5
3.7–4.3
3.7–4.3
3.5–4.3
Decemberprojection
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.0–4.2
4.0–4.2
3.9–4.3
3.8–4.3
3.9–4.5
3.8–4.7
3.8–4.7
3.5–4.3
PCEinflation
2.4
2.2
2.0
2.0
2.3–2.7
2.1–2.2
2.0–2.1
2.0
2.2–2.9
2.0–2.5
2.0–2.3
2.0
Decemberprojection
2.4
2.1
2.0
2.0
2.2–2.5
2.0–2.2
2.0
2.0
2.1–2.7
2.0–2.5
2.0–2.3
2.0
CorePCEinflation4
2.6
2.2
2.0
2.5–2.8
2.1–2.3
2.0–2.1
2.4–3.0
2.0–2.6
2.0–2.3
Decemberprojection
2.4
2.2
2.0
2.4–2.7
2.0–2.2
2.0–2.1
2.3–3.0
2.0–2.6
2.0–2.3
Memo:Projected
appropriatepolicypath
Federalfundsrate
4.6
3.9
3.1
2.6
4.6–5.1
3.4–4.1
2.6–3.4
2.5–3.1
4.4–5.4
2.6–5.4
2.4–4.9
2.4–3.8
Decemberprojection
4.6
3.6
2.9
2.5
4.4–4.9
3.1–3.9
2.5–3.1
2.5–3.0
3.9–5.4
2.4–5.4
2.4–4.9
2.4–3.8
Note:Projectionsofchangeinrealgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)andprojectionsforbothmeasuresofinflationarepercentchangesfromthefourthquarterofthepreviousyeartothefourthquarteroftheyearindicated.PCEinflationandcorePCEinflationarethepercentageratesofchangein,respectively,thepriceindexforpersonalconsumptionexpenditures(PCE)andthepriceindexforPCEexcludingfoodandenergy.Projectionsfortheunemploymentratearefortheaveragecivilianunemploymentrateinthefourthquarteroftheyearindicated.Eachparticipant’sprojectionsarebasedonhisorherassessmentofappropriatemonetarypolicy.Longer-runprojectionsrepresenteachparticipant’sassessmentoftheratetowhicheachvariablewouldbeexpectedtoconvergeunderappropriatemonetarypolicyandintheabsenceoffurthershockstotheeconomy.Theprojectionsforthefederalfundsratearethevalueofthemidpointoftheprojectedappropriatetargetrangeforthefederalfundsrateortheprojectedappropriatetargetlevelforthefederalfundsrateattheendofthespecifiedcalendaryearoroverthelongerrun.TheDecemberprojectionsweremadeinconjunctionwiththemeetingoftheFederalOpenMarketCommitteeonDecember12–13,2023.Oneparticipantdidnotsubmitlonger-runprojectionsforthechangeinrealGDP,theunemploymentrate,orthefederalfundsrateinconjunctionwiththeDecember12–13,2023,meeting,andoneparticipantdidnotsubmitsuchprojectionsinconjunctionwiththeMarch19–20,2024,meeting.
1.Foreachperiod,themedianisthemiddleprojectionwhentheprojectionsarearrangedfromlowesttohighest.Whenthenumberofprojectionsiseven,themedianistheaverageofthetwomiddleprojections.
2.Thecentraltendencyexcludesthethreehighestandthreelowestprojectionsforeachvariableineachyear.
3.Therangeforavariableinagivenyearincludesallparticipants’projections,fromlowesttohighest,forthatvariableinthatyear.
4.Longer-runprojectionsforcorePCEinflationarenotcollected.
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Forreleaseat2:00p.m.,EDT,March20,2024
Figure1.Medians,centraltendencies,andrangesofeconomicprojections,2024–26andoverthelongerrun
Rangeofprojections
Percent
ChangeinrealGDP
6
Actual
5
4
3
2
Medianofprojections
Centraltendencyofprojections
1 0−1−2
−3
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Longerrun
Percent
Unemploymentrate
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Longer
run
Percent
PCEinflation
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Longer
run
Percent
CorePCEinflation
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Longerrun
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
Note:Definitionsofvariablesandotherexplanationsareinthenotestotable1.Thedatafortheactualvalues
ofthevariablesareannual.
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Forreleaseat2:00p.m.,EDT,March20,2024
Figure2.FOMCparticipants’assessmentsofappropriatemonetarypolicy:Midpointoftargetrangeortargetlevelforthefederalfundsrate
Percent
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2024
2025
2026
Longerrun
Note:Eachshadedcircleindicatesthevalue(roundedtothenearest1/8percentagepoint)ofanindividualparticipant’sjudgmentofthemidpointoftheappropriatetargetrangeforthefederalfundsrateortheappropriatetargetlevelforthefederalfundsrateattheendofthespecifiedcalendaryearoroverthelongerrun.Oneparticipantdidnotsubmitlonger-runprojectionsforthefederalfundsrate.
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0.6−0.7
0.8−0.9
1.0−1.1
1.2−1.3
1.4−1.6−
1.51.7
1.8−1.9
2.0−2.1
2.2−2.3
2.4−2.5
2.6−2.7
Percentrange
Forreleaseat2:00p.m.,EDT,March20,2024
Figure3.A.Distributionofparticipants’projectionsforthechangeinrealGDP,2024–26andoverthelongerrun
Numberofparticipants
2024
Marchprojections
Decemberprojections
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0.6−0.7
0.8−
0.9
1.0−
1.1
1.2−
1.3
1.4−1.6−
1.51.7
Percentrange
1.8−
1.9
2.0−
2.1
2.2−
2.3
2.4−
2.5
2.6−
2.7
Numberofparticipants
2025
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0.6−0.7
0.8−
0.9
1.0−
1.1
1.2−
1.3
1.4−1.6−
1.51.7
Percentrange
1.8−
1.9
2.0−
2.1
2.2−
2.3
2.4−
2.5
2.6−
2.7
Numberofparticipants
2026
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0.6−0.7
0.8−
0.9
1.0−
1.1
1.2−
1.3
1.4−1.6−
1.51.7
Percentrange
1.8−
1.9
2.0−
2.1
2.2−
2.3
2.4−
2.5
2.6−
2.7
Numberofparticipants
Longerrun
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
Note:Definitionsofvariablesandotherexplanationsareinthenotestotable1.
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3.2−3.3
3.4−3.5
3.6−3.7
3.8−3.9
4.0−4.1
4.2−4.3
4.4−4.5
4.6−4.7
Percentrange
Forreleaseat2:00p.m.,EDT,March20,2024
Figure3.B.Distributionofparticipants’projectionsfortheunemploymentrate,2024–26andoverthelongerrun
Numberofparticipants
2024
Marchprojections
Decemberprojections
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
3.2−
3.3
3.4−
3.5
3.6−
3.7
3.8−
3.9
4.0−
4.1
4.2−
4.3
4.4−
4.5
4.6−
4.7
Percentrange
Numberofparticipants
2025
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
3.2−
3.3
3.4−
3.5
3.6−
3.7
3.8−
3.9
4.0−
4.1
4.2−
4.3
4.4−
4.5
4.6−
4.7
Percentrange
Numberofparticipants
2026
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
3.2−
3.3
3.4−
3.5
3.6−
3.7
3.8−
3.9
4.0−
4.1
4.2−
4.3
4.4−
4.5
4.6−
4.7
Percentrange
Numberofparticipants
Longerrun
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
Note:Definitionsofvariablesandotherexplanationsareinthenotestotable1.
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1.7−1.8
1.9−2.0
2.1−2.2
2.3−
2.4
Percentrange
2.5−2.6
2.7−2.8
2.9−3.0
Forreleaseat2:00p.m.,EDT,March20,2024
Figure3.C.Distributionofparticipants’projectionsforPCEinflation,2024–26andoverthelongerrun
Numberofparticipants
2024
Marchprojections
Decemberprojections
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
1.7−
1.8
1.9−
2.0
2.1−
2.2
2.3−
2.4
Percentrange
2.5−
2.6
2.7−
2.8
2.9−
3.0
Numberofparticipants
2025
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
1.7−
1.8
1.9−
2.0
2.1−
2.2
2.3−
2.4
Percentrange
2.5−
2.6
2.7−
2.8
2.9−
3.0
Numberofparticipants
2026
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
1.7−
1.8
1.9−
2.0
2.1−
2.2
2.3−
2.4
Percentrange
2.5−
2.6
2.7−
2.8
2.9−
3.0
Numberofparticipants
Longerrun
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
Note:Definitionsofvariablesandotherexplanationsareinthenotestotable1.
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Forreleaseat2:00p.m.,EDT,March20,2024
Figure3.D.Distributionofparticipants’projectionsforcorePCEinflation,2024–26
Numberofparticipants
2024
Marchprojections
Decemberprojections
1.7−1.8
1.9−2.0
2.1−2.2
2.5−2.6
2.7−2.8
2.9−3.0
2.3−
2.4
Percentrange
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
Numberofparticipants
2025
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
1.7−
1.8
1.9−
2.0
2.1−
2.2
2.3−
2.4
Percentrange
2.5−
2.6
2.7−
2.8
2.9−
3.0
Numberofparticipants
2026
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
1.7−
1.8
1.9−
2.0
2.1−
2.2
2.3−
2.4
Percentrange
2.5−
2.6
2.7−
2.8
2.9−
3.0
Note:Definitionsofvariablesandotherexplanationsareinthenotestotable1.
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Forreleaseat2:00p.m.,EDT,March20,2024
Figure3.E.Distributionofparticipants’judgmentsofthemidpointoftheappropriatetargetrangeforthefederalfundsrateortheappropriatetargetlevelforthefederalfundsrate,2024–26andoverthelongerrun
Numberofparticipants
2024
Marchprojections
Decemberprojections
2.13−2.37
2.38−2.62
2.63−2.87
3.13−3.37
3.38−3.62
3.63−3.87
3.88−4.12
2.88−3.12
4.13−4.37
4.38−4.62
4.63−4.87
5.13−5.37
5.38−5.62
4.88−5.12
Percentrange
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
Numberofparticipants
2025
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
2.13−2.37
2.38−
2.62
2.63−
2.87
2.88−
3.12
3.13−
3.37
3.38−
3.62
3.63−
3.87
3.88−
4.12
4.13−
4.37
4.38−
4.62
4.63−
4.87
4.88−
5.12
5.13−
5.37
5.38−
5.62
Percentrange
Numberofparticipants
2026
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
2.13−2.37
2.38−2.62
2.63−2.87
2.88−3.12
3.13−3.37
3.38−3.62
3.63−3.87
3.88−4.12
4.13−4.37
4.38−4.62
4.63−4.87
4.88−5.12
5.13−5.37
5.38−5.62
5.63−5.87
5.88−6.12
6.13−
6.37
Percentrange
Numberofparticipants
Longerrun
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
2.13−2.37
2.38−
2.62
2.63−
2.87
2.88−
3.12
3.13−
3.37
3.38−
3.62
3.63−
3.87
3.88−
4.12
4.13−
4.37
4.38−
4.62
4.63−
4.87
4.88−
5.12
5.13−
5.37
5.38−
5.62
Percentrange
Note:Definitionsofvariablesandotherexplanationsareinthenotestotable1.
Page10of17
Numberofparticipants
RiskstoGDPgrowth
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
Marchprojections
Decemberprojections
Weightedtodownside
Broadlybalanced
Weightedto
upside
Forreleaseat2:00p.m.,EDT,March20,2024
Figure4.A.UncertaintyandrisksinprojectionsofGDPgrowth
Medianprojectionandconfidenceintervalbasedonhistoricalforecasterrors
Percent
ChangeinrealGDP
Medianofprojections
70%confidenceinterval
Actual
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
−1
−2
−3
20192020202120222023202420252026
FOMCparticipants’assessmentsofuncertaintyandrisksaroundtheireconomicprojections
Numberofparticipants
UncertaintyaboutGDPgrowth
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
Marchprojections
Decemberprojections
Lower
Broadly
similar
Higher
Note:Theblueandredlinesinthetoppanelshowactualvaluesandmedianprojectedvalues,respectively,ofthepercentchangeinrealgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)fromthefourthquarterofthepreviousyeartothefourthquarteroftheyearindicated.Theconfidenceintervalaroundthemedianprojectedvaluesisassumedtobesymmetricandisbasedonrootmeansquarederrorsofvariousprivateandgovernmentforecastsmadeovertheprevious20years;moreinformationaboutthesedataisavailableintable2.Becausecurrentconditionsmaydifferfromthosethatprevailed,onaverage,overtheprevious20years,thewidthandshapeoftheconfidenceintervalestimatedonthebasisofthehistoricalforecasterrorsmaynotreflectFOMCparticipants’currentassessmentsoftheuncertaintyandrisksaroundtheirprojections;thesecurrentassessmentsaresummarizedinthelowerpanels.Generallyspeaking,participantswhojudgetheuncertaintyabouttheirprojectionsas“broadlysimilar”totheaveragelevelsofthepast20yearswouldviewthewidthoftheconfidenceintervalshowninthehistoricalfanchartaslargelyconsistentwiththeirassessmentsoftheuncertaintyabouttheirprojections.Likewise,participantswhojudgetheriskstotheirprojectionsas“broadlybalanced”wouldviewtheconfidenceintervalaroundtheirprojectionsasapproximatelysymmetric.Fordefinitionsofuncertaintyandrisksineconomicprojections,seethebox“ForecastUncertainty.”
Page11of17
Numberofparticipants
Riskstotheunemploymentrate
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
Marchprojections
Decemberprojections
Weightedtodownside
Broadlybalanced
Weightedto
upside
Forreleaseat2:00p.m.,EDT,March20,2024
Figure4.B.Uncertaintyandrisksinprojectionsoftheunemploymentrate
Medianprojectionandconfidenceintervalbasedonhistoricalforecasterrors
Percent
Unemploymentrate
Medianofprojections
70%confidenceinterval
7
6
Actual
5
4
3
2
20192020202120222023202420252026
1
FOMCparticipants’assessmentsofuncertaintyandrisksaroundtheireconomicprojections
Numberofparticipants
Uncertaintyabouttheunemploymentrate
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
Marchprojections
Decemberprojections
Lower
Broadly
similar
Higher
Note:Theblueandredlinesinthetoppanelshowactualvaluesandmedianprojectedvalues,respectively,oftheaveragecivilianunemploymentrateinthefourthquarteroftheyearindicated.Theconfidenceintervalaroundthemedianprojectedvaluesisassumedtobesymmetricandisbasedonrootmeansquarederrorsofvariousprivateandgovernmentforecastsmadeovertheprevious20years;moreinformationaboutthesedataisavailableintable2.Becausecurrentconditionsmaydifferfromthosethatprevailed,onaverage,overtheprevious20years,thewidthandshapeoftheconfidenceintervalestimatedonthebasisofthehistoricalforecasterrorsmaynotreflectFOMCparticipants’currentassessmentsoftheuncertaintyandrisksaroundtheirprojections;thesecurrentassessmentsaresummarizedinthelowerpanels.Generallyspeaking,participantswhojudgetheuncertaintyabouttheirprojectionsas“broadlysimilar”totheaveragelevelsofthepast20yearswouldviewthewidthoftheconfidenceintervalshowninthehistoricalfanchartaslargelyconsistentwiththeirassessmentsoftheuncertaintyabouttheirprojections.Likewise,participantswhojudgetheriskstotheirprojectionsas“broadlybalanced”wouldviewtheconfidenceintervalaroundtheirprojectionsasapproximatelysymmetric.Fordefinitionsofuncertaintyandrisksineconomicprojections,seethebox“ForecastUncertainty.”
Page12of17
Forreleaseat2:00p.m.,EDT,March20,2024
Figure4.C.UncertaintyandrisksinprojectionsofPCEinflation
Medianprojectionandconfidenceintervalbasedonhistoricalforecasterrors
Percent
PCEinflation
7
Medianofprojections
70%confidenceinterval
6
5
4
3
2
1
Actual
0
20192020202120222023202420252026
FOMCparticipants’assessmentsofuncertaintyandrisksaroundtheireconomicprojections
Numberofparticipants
Numberofparticipants
RiskstoPCEinflation
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
UncertaintyaboutPCEinflation
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
Marchprojections
Decemberprojections
Marchprojections
Decemberprojections
Lower
Broadly
similar
Higher
Weightedtodownside
Broadlybalanced
Weightedto
upside
Numberofparticipants
Numberofparticipants
UncertaintyaboutcorePCEinflation
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
RiskstocorePCEinflation
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
Marchprojections
Decemberprojections
Marchprojections
Decemberprojections
Lower
Broadly
similar
Higher
Weightedtodownside
Broadlybalanced
Weightedto
upside
Note:Theblueandredlinesinthetoppanelshowactualvaluesandmedianprojectedvalues,respectively,ofthepercentchangeinthepriceindexforpersonalconsumptionexpenditures(PCE)fromthefourthquarterofthepreviousyeartothefourthquarteroftheyearindicated.Theconfidenceintervalaroundthemedianprojectedvaluesisassumedtobesymmetricandisbasedonrootmeansquarederrorsofvariousprivateandgovernment forecastsmadeovertheprevious20years;moreinformationaboutthesedataisavailableintable2.Becausecurrentconditionsmaydifferfromthosethatprevailed,onaverage,overtheprevious20years,thewidthandshapeoftheconfidenceintervalestimatedonthebasisofthehistoricalforecasterrorsmaynotreflectFOMCparticipants’currentassessmentsoftheuncertaintyandrisksaroundtheirprojections;thesecurrentassessmentsaresummarizedinthe lowerpanels.Generallyspeaking,participantswhojudgetheuncertaintyabouttheirprojectionsas“broadlysimilar”totheaveragelevelsofthepast20yearswouldviewthewidthoftheconfidenceintervalshowninthehistoricalfanchartaslargelyconsistentwiththeirassessmentsoftheuncertaintyabouttheirprojections.Likewise,participantswhojudgetheriskstotheirprojectionsas“broadlybalanced”wouldviewtheconfidenceintervalaroundtheirprojectionsasapproximatelysymmetric.Fordefinitionsofuncertaintyandrisksineconomicprojections,seethebox“ForecastUncertainty.”
Page13of17
200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024
Forreleaseat2:00p.m.,EDT,March20,2024
Figure4.D.Diffusionindexesofparticipants’uncertaintyassessments
Diffusionindex
ChangeinrealGDP
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.25
0.00
−0.25
−0.50
−0.75
200720082009201020112012201320142015
201620172018201920202021202220232024
−1.00
Unemploymentrate
Diffusionindex
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.25
0.00
−0.25
−0.50
−0.75
200720082009201020112012201320142015
201620172018201920202021202220232024
−1.00
PCEinflation
Diffusionindex
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.25
0.00
−0.25
−0.50
−0.75
200720082009201020112012201320142015
201620172018201920202021202220232024
−1.00
CorePCEinflation
Diffusionindex
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.25
0.00
−0.25
−0.50
−0.75
−1.00
Note:ForeachSEP,participantsprovidedresponsestothequestion“Pleaseindicateyourjudgmentoftheuncertaintyattachedtoyourprojectionsrelativetothelevelsofuncertaintyoverthepast20years.”Eachpointinthediffusionindexesrepresentsthenumberofparticipantswhoresponded“Higher”minusthenumberwhoresponded“Lower,”dividedbythetotalnumberofparticipants.FigureexcludesMarch2020whennoprojectionsweresubmitted.
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Figure4.E.Diffusionindexesofparticipants’riskweightings
Diffusionindex
ChangeinrealGDP
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.25
0.00
−0.25
−0.50
−0.75
−1.00
200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024
Diffusionindex
Unemploymentrate
200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.25
0.00
−0.25
−0.50
−0.75
−1.00
Diffusionindex
PCEinflation
200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.25
0.00
−0.25
−0.50
−0.75
−1.00
Diffusionindex
CorePCEinflation
200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.25
0.00
−0.25
−0.50
−0.75
−1.00
Note:ForeachSEP,participantsprovidedresponsestothequestion“Pleaseindicateyourjudgmentoftheriskweightingaroundyourprojections.”Eachpointinthediffusionindexesrepresentsthenumberofparticipantswhoresponded“WeightedtotheUpside”minusthenumberwhoresponded“WeightedtotheDownside,”dividedbythetotalnumberofparticipants.FigureexcludesMarch2020whennoprojectionsweresubmitted.
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Figure5.Uncertaintyandrisksinprojectionsofthefederalfundsrate
Percent
Federalfundsrate
Midpointoftargetrange
Medianofprojections
70%confidenceinterval*
Actual
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
20192020202120222023202420252026
Note:Theblueandredlinesarebasedonactualvaluesandmedianprojectedvalues,respectively,oftheCommittee’stargetforthefederalfundsrateattheendoftheyearindicated.Theactualvaluesarethemidpointofthetargetrange;themedianprojectedvaluesarebasedoneitherthemidpointofthetargetrangeorthetargetlevel.Theconfidenceintervalaroundthemedianprojectedvaluesisbasedonrootmeansquarederrorsofvariousprivateandgovernmentforecastsmadeovertheprevious20years.Theconfidenceintervalisnotstrictlyconsistentwiththeprojectionsforthefederalfundsrate,primarilybecausetheseprojectionsarenotforecastsofthelikeliestoutcomesforthefederalfundsrate,butratherprojectionsofparticipants’individualassessmentsofappropriatemonetarypolicy.Still,historicalforecasterrorsprovideabroadsenseoftheuncertaintyaroundthefuturepathofthefederalfundsrategeneratedbytheuncertaintyaboutthemacroeconomicvariablesaswellasadditionaladjustmentstomonetarypolicythatmaybeappropriatetooffsettheeffectsofshockstotheeconomy.
Theconfidenceintervalisassumedtobesymmetricexceptwhenitistruncatedatzero-thebottomofthelowesttargetrangeforthefederalfundsratethathasbeenadoptedinthepastbytheCommittee.Thistruncationwouldnotbeintendedtoindicatethelikelihoodoftheuseofnegativeinterestratestoprovideadditionalmonetarypolicyaccommodationifdoingsowasjudgedappropriate.Insuchsituations,theCommitteecouldalsoemployothertools,includingforwardguidanceandlarge-scaleassetpurchases,toprovideadditionalaccommodation.Becausecurrentconditionsmaydifferfromthosethatprevailed,onaverage,overtheprevious20years,thewidthandshapeoftheconfidenceintervalestimatedonthebasisofthehistoricalforecasterrorsmaynotreflectFOMCparticipants’currentassessmentsoftheuncertaintyandrisksaroundtheirprojections.
*Theconfidenceintervalisderivedfromforecastsoftheaveragelevelofshort-terminterestratesinthefourthquarteroftheyearindicated;moreinformationaboutthesedataisavailableintable2.Theshadedareaencompasseslessthana70percentconfidenceintervaliftheconfidenceintervalhasbeentruncatedatzero.
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Table2.AverageHistoricalProjectionErrorRanges(Percentagepoints)
Variable
2024
2025
2026
ChangeinrealGDP1..............
±1.6
±2.0
±2.2
Unemploymentrate1..............
±0.8
±1.4
±1.9
Totalconsumerprices2............
±1.4
±1.8
±1.8
Short-terminterestrates3.........
±0.9
±2.0
±2.5
Note:Errorrangesshownaremeasuredasplusorminustherootmeansquarederrorofprojectionsfor2004through2023thatwerereleasedinthespringbyvariousprivateandgovernmentforecasters.Asdescribedinthebox“ForecastUncertainty,”undercertainassumptions,thereisabouta70percentprobabilitythatactualoutcomesforrealGDP,unemployment,consumerprices,andthefederal fundsratewillbeinrangesimpliedbytheaveragesizeofprojectionerrorsmade inthepast.Formoreinformation,seeDavidReifschneiderandPeterTulip(2017),“GaugingtheUncertaintyoftheEconomicOutlookUsingHistoricalForecastingErrors:TheFederalReserve’sApproach,”FinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSeries2017-020(Washington:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem,February),
/10.17016/FEDS.2017.020.
1.Definitionsofvariablesareinthegeneralnotetotable1.
2.Measureistheoverallconsumerpriceindex,thepricemeasurethathasbeenmostwidelyusedingovernmentandprivateecon
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