2024+年挪威房地产市场展望-英

Intelligent

InvestmentMarketOutlook2024REPORTNORWAYREAL

ESTATECBRERESEARCHIntelligent

InvestmentReal

EstateMarketOutlook

2024

|

NorwayContents01

Macroeconomics

05

Living02

Capital

Markets06

Retail03

Office04

I&L07

Hotel08

Sustainability2CBRE

RESEARCH©2024

CBRE,

INC.MacroeconomicsDespiteexperiencing

aslowdown,

the

Norwegian

economy

isexpectedto

be

bolsteredbythe

oilservicessectorin2024.However,ongoingchallenges

includepotentialgeopoliticalinstabilityand

persistent

inflation,whichcoulddisrupt

theeconomicoutlook.

The

anticipation

isforinflationto

remainabove

target,

averaging

around3.7percent.Intelligent

InvestmentRReeaallEEssttaatteeMMaarrkkeettOOuuttloloookk22002244||NEourrwo

pa

yeKeyTakeaways01The

energyprice

surgedueto

the

war

in

Ukraineand

pandemic-related

supplychain

disruptionswere

central

contributors

to

theinflation

increasein

2021

and

2022.

Theseeffectshave

sincespread

to

othergoods

and

services.0203Domestic

inflation

in

2024

is

currentlybeingdriven

byhigh

wagegrowthand

increasedcompany

profitmargins,

and

itisexpected

to

remainwellabovethe

2percent

target,averaging

around

3.7percent,

despiteexpectationsof

a

decrease

inimportedinflation.The

primary

threats

to

the

economic

outlook

aregeopoliticalcircumstances

and

persistent

inflation.

Anyescalation

in

geopoliticaltensions

could

amplifyuncertainty

and

potentially

leadto

furtherpricehikesincommodities,

such

aselectricity.4CBRE

RESEARCH©2024

CBRE,

INC.Intelligent

InvestmentReal

EstateMarketOutlook

2024

|

NorwayInflationPeakReached,

ButExpectedtoRemainAbove

Targetin

2024INFLATION

TO

DECLINE

SLOWLYFigure1:DecompositionofCPI,

2021-2023The

surge

in

energy

prices

resulting

from

the

warinUkraine

andsupply

chaindisruptions

afterthe

pandemic

were

key

factorscontributing

tothe

increase

in

inflation

in

2021

and2022.

This

initialshock

toimported

prices

hassince

spread

toother

goods

andservices.87654321However,

there

hasbeen

adecrease

in

pressure

onthe

ConsumerPrice

Index(CPI)

ascertain

factors

affecting

prices,

such

asinternational

freight

costs

andenergy

prices,

have

significantlydeclined

from

their

peaklevels.

As

shown

in

Figure

1,energy

priceshadanegative

impact

on

CPIinflation

inthe

latterpartof

2023.The

depreciation

of

theNorwegian

Krone

(NOK)

hasbeenproblematic

for

inflation

recovery.

From

the

start

of

2023

untilDecember,

the

NOKdepreciated

byapproximately

10percentagainsttheimport-weighted

exchange

rate(I-44).

However,

themarket

was

surprised

by

Norges

Bank's

decision

to

increase

thepolicy

rateandtheir

hawkish

interest

rate

outlook

in

December,resulting

inastrengthening

of

theNOK

towards

theend

of

theyear.Considering

the

declining

inflation

in

our

most

crucial

tradingpartner

countries,

itis

expected

thatimported

inflation

willdecrease

in

2024

unless

there

is

further

depreciation

of

the

NOK.However,

domestic

inflation

is

currently

driven

byhigh

wage

growthandincreased

profit

margins

incompanies.

While

it

is

likely

thatwehavereached

the

peak,

inflation

is

expected

to

remain

well

abovethe

2percent

target

throughout

2024,

averaging

around

3.7percent.0202120222023-1-2GoodsServicesAgriculturalproductsRentEnergyHeadlineinflationCoreinflationSource:CBRE

Research,StatisticsNorway5CBRE

RESEARCH©2024

CBRE,

INC.Intelligent

InvestmentReal

EstateMarketOutlook

2024

|

NorwayEconomicgrowth

and

inflationbothsubsidingANTICIPATING

SLOW

ECONOMIC

GROWTHPRODUCTION

OUTPUT

TO

DECREASEFigure2:Keyeconomicfigures,2023-2025As

we

transition

into2024,

theNorwegian

economy

confrontsseveral

formidable

challenges.

Inflation

has

proven

tobe

moreresilient

thaninitially

forecasted,

despite

the

Norwegian

CentralBank(Norges

Bank)implementing

policy

ratehikes

of

175basispoints

in

2023,

elevating

itto

4.50

percent.

This

stricter

monetarypolicy

hassuccessfully

achieved

itsobjective

of

temperingeconomic

activity.According

torecent

reports

from

businesses

within

the

regionalnetwork

of

Norges

Bank,

economic

activity

experienced

aslowdown

during

the

fourth

quarter.

The

forecast

for

theupcoming

quarter

indicates

aprojected

decrease

in

productionoutput

by0.3

percent.

However,

itis

important

tonote,

asillustrated

in

Figure

2,

thatthere

are

significant

disparitiesacross

various

sectors.

The

Oil

services

sector

is

expected

tosignificantly

bolster

theeconomy,

while

theConstruction

andRetailsectors

presented

the

most

pessimistic

outlooks.20233,83,74,02024E3,3

3,22025E3,01,72,01,01,50,3GDP(%)0,2Our

forecasts

predict

the

mainlandGDP

growth

for

2023

and2024tobe

1.1and0.2

percent,

respectively.

Concurrently,

we

anticipate

aslight

rise

inthe

unemployment

rateover

the

coming

year,

albeitremaining

within

historically

low

parameters.0,0Mainland-GDP

Unemployment

10Ygov.

bond(%)

rate(%)

(%)For

theConstruction

sector,

theprimary

challenge

hasbeen

theescalating

costs

of

materials.

However,

the

current

downturn

islargely

attributed

torising

interest

rates

andamore

subduedeconomic

forecast.

Despite

the

generally

negative

outlook,certain

regional

variations

exist.The

central

andeasternregions

of

Norway

display

themost

pessimistic

forecasts,whereas

the

southern

andsoutheastern

regions

exudeamoreoptimistic

sentiment.Source:CBRE

ResearchWith

CPIinflation

expected

toaverage

around

3.7percent

in2024,the

prospect

of

real

wagegrowth

emerges

for

thefirst

time

in

aprolonged

period.

The

10-year

government

bond

experiencedsignificant

volatility

throughout

2023,

fluctuating

between

2.7

and4.3,

averaging

3.5

percent

for

the

year.

Our

projections

suggest

theannualaverage

will

fall

to

3.3

percent

in

2024.Figure3:RegionalNetwork,

expected

output

growthnext

QServicesRetail0,1-1,1Construction

-2,2OilservicesIn

thelatestMonetary

Policy

Report,

Norges

Bankindicated

aslimpossibility

of

afurther

policy

rate

hike

in

thefirst

quarter

of

2024.However,

aswe

nearthe

end

of

January,

this

outcome

seemsimprobable.

TheCPI

inflation

for

December

was

marginally

lowerthanNorges

Bank's

estimate,

the

Norwegian

Krone

isslightlystronger

thananticipated,

andGDPgrowth

estimates

havelargelymatched

expectations.

While

we

are

of

the

opinion

thatwe

havereached

thepolicy

rate

peak,we

donot

foresee

anycuts

before

thesecond

halfof

the

year.1,7MAIN

RISKSExport-orientedmanufacturing0,1The

primary

threats

tothe

economic

outlook

are

intricatelylinked

togeopolitical

circumstances

andinflationary

pressures.Any

escalationin

geopolitical

tensions

could

amplifyuncertainty,

potentially

leadingto

further

price

hikes

inelectricity

andother

commodities.

Inflation

hasproven

tobemore

tenacious

than

initially

expected,

andshould

this

trendpersist,

itcould

postpone

anticipatedinterest

rate

reductions

oreven

potentially

pose

athreatof

subsequent

increases.Domestically-orientedmanufacturingManufacturing-0,4-0,2-0,3-1Aggregated-3-2012Source:NorgesBank6CBRE

RESEARCH©2024

CBRE,

INC.Capital

MarketsThe

yield

expansion

periodinNorway's

real

estatemarketisnearingitsend,with

capital

valuesexpectedtohit

alowin2024.

Despiteasignificantdecrease

in

investmentactivityin

2023,positive

signs

indicate

apotentialincrease

inthe

comingyears,

albeitchallenges

remain.Intelligent

InvestmentRReeaallEEssttaatteeMMaarrkkeettOOuuttloloookk22002244||NEourrwo

pa

yeKeyTakeaways01The

yield

expansion

period,

driven

by

escalating

interest

ratesoverthe

pasttwoyears,isnearingits

conclusion;

capital

valuesarepredicted

to

hit

theirlowest

point

in

2024

as

interest

ratesstabilize.0203Assetsthat

fail

to

attract

occupiersorinvestors

need

to

berepositionedthrough

conversion

orredevelopment.The

risinginterest

ratesand

increasedbankmargins

havesignificantly

raised

the

cost

ofborrowing,creating

adebt

gap

thatpresents

a

challenge

to

the

real

estatemarket.8CBRE

RESEARCH©2024

CBRE,

INC.Intelligent

InvestmentReal

EstateMarketOutlook

2024

|

NorwayInvestment

ActivityinNorwayShowsEncouraging

SignsYIELDEXPANSION

NEARING

CONCLUSIONAs

Norwegian

residential

prices

havedisplayed

remarkableFigure4:Capitalvalueindex*-Osloofficeresilience

in

theface

of

rising

interest

rates,

we

are

witnessing

agrowing

interest

in

theconversion

of

office

andretail

assets

intoresidential

properties.

Nonetheless,

elevated

construction

costsnecessitate

acareful

assessment

of

investment

viability,

asprojected

returns

must

surpass

associated

expenses,

whileadequately

compensating

for

the

inherent

risks

toinvestmentcapital.Over

the

pasttwo

years,

escalating

interest

rates

have

driven

yieldshigher,

significantly

influencing

the

performance

of

realestateinvestments.

The

preceding

year

witnessed

adecline

intotalreturns

for

office

investments,

ascapitalvalues

experienced

adownward

trend

throughout

2023.14013012011010090ForecastFrom

Q2

2022

onwards,

we

have

observed

an

estimated

25percentnominal

decrease

incapitalvalues

for

office

spaces

in

Oslo,

despitesome

of

the

yield

expansion

having

been

offset

by

increasing

rentalincome.

Nevertheless,

for

most

long-term

investors,

their

officeinvestments

remain

profitable

asthe

five-year

totalreturn

is

still

inpositive

territory.80NORDIC

INVESTORS

PREDICTINCREASEDACTIVITYQ4Q3Q2Q1Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4Q42017

2018

2019

2020

2020

2021

2022

2023

2023

2026According

toCBRE's

Investor

Intentions

Survey

2024,

there

areencouraging

indications

for

investment

activity

inNorway.

Morethan80

percent

of

respondents

from

the

Nordic

regionanticipateanincrease

or

stabilityin

purchasing

activitycompared

tothe

previous

year.Source:CBRE

Research*Calculated

using

office

rental

growth

developmentinOslodivided

by

primeyieldOur

analysis

suggests

thatwe

are

approaching

the

conclusion

ofyield

expansion.

We

anticipate

thatcapitalvalues

will

most

likelyreach

their

lowest

point

in

2024

asinterest

rates

stabilize.

While

weexpect

theextentof

further

repricing

tobe

less

significantcompared

tothe

adjustments

alreadywitnessed,

itis

important

tonote

thatasignificant

recovery

in

values

is

notanticipated

aslongasborrowing

costs

remain

elevated.Figure5:Totaloffice

return(%)20%In

comparison

to

thepeakobserved

inearly

2022,

the

mostsignificant

price

reductions

are

projected

for

GradeA

officessituated

insecondary

locations.

50percent

of

Nordic

investorsexpect

discounts

ranging

from

10to30

percent,

while

33percent

anticipatediscounts

exceeding

30percent.5Yannualizedreturn3Yannualizedreturn15%10%5%ADDRESSINGUNDERPERFORMING

ASSETS

THROUGHREPOSITIONINGDespite

these

positive

signs,

there

are

still

notablechallengesaffecting

investment

activity.

The

primary

obstacles

identifiedinclude

amismatch

in

buyer

andseller

expectations

(77percent),

interest

rates

toremain

higher

for

longer

(69

percent),andtighter

credit

availability(62

percent).0%Assets

thatfail

toattractoccupiers

or

investors,

or

fail

tomeetregulatory

standards

due

totheir

age,location,

or

specifications,need

to

berepositioned

through

either

conversion

orredevelopment.-5%Q4

Q2

Q4

Q2

Q4

Q2

Q4

Q2

Q4

Q2

Q4

Q2

Q42017

2018

2018

2019

2019

20202020

2021

2021

2022

2022

2023

2023Source:CBRE

Research9CBRE

RESEARCH©2024

CBRE,

INC.Intelligent

InvestmentReal

EstateMarketOutlook

2024

|

NorwayExpected

Uptickin

InvestmentActivityin

Late

2024LOWEST

INVESTMENT

VOLUME

IN

ADECADEFigure6:

Investment

volume

bysector

(NOKbn)Investment

activity

in

theNorwegian

CREmarket

continued

tofallin

2023,

astotalvolume

aggregated

toNOK

54billion,

down

52percent

compared

to

theprevious

year.

From

theexceptional

year2021,

investment

volumes

are

down

by

two-thirds.

Office

remainsthe

most

popularsector

with

totalinvestments

of

NOK14.5

billion(27.0%),

followed

by

Residential

(NOK

10.0

bn,

18.5%)

andIndustrial&

Logistics

(NOK

9.2

bn,

17.1%).18016014012010080604020RETURN

OF

PRIOR

LEVELSOF

INVESTMENT

ACTIVITYOne

of

thecrucial

questions

being

debated

within

real

estate

iswhen

investment

volumes

will

return

tothe

levels

before

therise

ininterest

rates.

Inour

latestInvestor

Intentions

Survey,

we

alsoasked

investors

toindicate

when

they

believe

this

will

happen.However,

investment

volumes

in

thelastfew

years

were

fuelled

byazero-interest

rateregime

which

we

areunlikely

toexperienceagainanytimesoon.

We

do

notexpect

theactivity

toreturn

tothese

levels

inthe

coming

years,

alsobecause

capitalvalues

havedecreased

significantly

from

the

peak.

Regardless,

there

is

room

foractivity

tosignificantly

pickup

from

2023

levels.As

valuationsalign

with

market

pricing,

buyers

andsellers

willexperience

increased

confidence

in

thenewly

established

marketprice

levels,

thereby

mitigating

thebid-ask

spread

over

themediumterm.

We

expectarise

in

investment

volume

from

lastyear

andforesee

agradual

uptick

in

activity

toward

thesecond

halfof

2024.0201620172018Retail2019Residential20202021Alternative2022Other2023HotelOfficeIndustrialSource:CBRE

Research10CBRE

RESEARCH©2024

CBRE,

INC.Intelligent

InvestmentReal

EstateMarketOutlook

2024

|

EuropeNavigating

theYieldGap

and

Debt

Gap

intheReal

Estate

MarketYIELDGAPFigure7:

Historical

10Y

swaprate(%)

andyieldgap(%)The

historical

difference

between

the

10-yearNOK

swap

andtheprime

office

yield

isillustrated

in

Figure

7.Throughout

the

period

from

2007totheend

of

2023,

the

yield

gaphasaveraged

approximately

1.5

percent.

Upon

the

exclusion

of

extreme

values,

caused

bysignificant

interest

ratechanges

andalagging

prime

yield,

the

averageincreases

toroughly

1.8

percent.

While

the

point

of

this

exercise

is

nottocalculate

the“correct”

yieldgap,one

could

argue

thatthe

yield

gapshould

be

higher

thanlastyear’s

average

due

toincreased

margins

on

debt

capital.3,5%3,0%2,5%2,0%1,5%1,0%0,5%0,0%-0,5%There

was

asignificant

decrease

of

approximately

100

basis

points

in

long

swap

ratesduring

the

final

two

months

of

2023,

which

resulted

in

theyield

gapescalating

tolevelsunseen

since

theend

of

2021.

As

of

mid-January,

the10-year

swap

ratestands

atapproximately

3.6

percent,

with

the

current

prime

office

yield

estimate

at4.9

percent,

thusproducing

ayield

gapof

1.3

percent.

Despite

the

yield

softening

nearing

itsconclusion,

weproject

apotentialslight

increase

in

theprime

yields

inthe

coming

months.2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

202410YSwap

-Officeyield

gapAverageyieldgap2007-2023Adjusted

yield

gapSource:CBRE

Research,NordeaMarketsFigure8:Simulation

ofthe

debtgapmodelfrom

peakto

now(NOKm)120DEBT

GAPThe

combination

of

rising

interest

rates

andincreased

bankmargins

hassignificantlyraised

thecost

of

borrowing.

Additionally,

lenders

havedecreased

theLoan-to-Value(LTV)

ratios,

making

it

difficult

for

borrowers

torefinance

atsimilar

amounts

asbefore.The

disparity

between

thepreviously

borrowed

amountandthe

currently

availabledebtisknown

asthe

debtgap*.InneedofNOK25m

ofequity

atrefinancing

to

close

thedebtgap100-

NOK20mNOK35m806040200NOK25mThis

poses

achallenge

for

thereal

estatemarket.

This

gapcanbe

mitigated

throughsupplementary

equity

or

alternative

financing

methods,

such

asbridge

or

mezzaninefinancing.

However,

when

additionalequity

is

scarce,

the

increased

need

for

debtfundingexerts

further

pressure

onthe

already

constricted

credit

supply.

For

investors

possessingavailablecapital,this

predicament

could

provide

anopportunity

tocapitalize

ondistressedassets

andnon-performing

loans.NOK65mPurchaseof

NOK100m

Capital

valuedeclineNewassetvalueDebtavailableat50%newLTVDebtfundinggapat

65%LTVfrompeakto

nowSource:CBRE

Research*The

debtfunding

gap

for

European

realestate,CBRE,2023CBRE

RESEARCH11©2024

CBRE,

INC.OfficeOslo'soffice

leasingmarket

isexperiencing

highdemand

andlimitedavailability,

leading

to

record-high

levelsofoffice

take-up.

Constructionchallenges

andincreased

costs

are

impacting

the

developmentofnewoffice

spaces.

There

isagrowing

preference

forprime

locations,andoffice

investment

volumeshavedeclined.Modestrental

growth

isexpected,

with

centrallocationsprojectedto

havethe

highestgrowth.Intelligent

InvestmentReal

EstateMarketOutlook

2024

|

NorwayKeyTakeaways01Oslo'soffice

leasingmarkethas

reachedrecord

high

levelsamidareboundin

economic

activity

post-COVID-19,

withasignificantsurgeindemandfor

centrallylocatedoffice

spaces.0203There

isa

growingdisparity

in

popularitybetween

primeandsecondaryoffice

locations,

withcompanies

increasinglyprioritizingquality

spacesin

primelocations

closeto

publictransport,retail,and

leisure

publicareas.Thisshift

isalsocontributing

to

strongerrentalgrowth

inGradeAproperties.Challengesinoffice

construction,

including

materialshortages,cost

escalation,

and

limited

availability

of

land,have

resulted

insubstantially

higher

costs

for

establishingnewoffice

spaces.13CBRE

RESEARCH©2024

CBRE,

INC.Intelligent

InvestmentReal

EstateMarketOutlook

2024

|

NorwayOslo's

Office

Leasing

Market

HitsRecord

HighDespite

ChallengesOSLO'S

OFFICE

LEASINGMARKET

SOARS

TO

RECORDHIGHSThe

forecast

for

2024

is

alsolow,

with

about62,000

sqmFigure9:

OsloOffice

supply

(sqm)&rentalgrowth(%)expected

completed.

Thespike

in

2025

is

mainly

due

tothecompletion

of

Construction

Cityandthe

first

part

of

the

newgovernment

quarter,

two

specialized

projects

thatareunavailableto

large

parts

of

office

tenants

inOslo.The

Oslo

office

leasing

market

has

been

characterized

byhighdemand,

limited

availabilityof

new

office

space,

andrelatively

lowvacancy

inrecent

years.30000011,0%6,0%1,0%Forecast200000Following

arebound

ineconomic

activity

post-COVID-19,

numerouscompanies

beganmaking

postponed

decisions

regarding

theirworkplace

strategies,

resulting

in

asignificant

surge

in

office

take-up

inOslo

during

2022

and2023,

reaching

all-time

high

levels.Particularly,

there

is

astrong

demandfor

centrally

locatedofficespaces.As

expected,

during

periods

of

limited

new

development,

rentalgrowth

typically

experiences

an

upward

trajectory.

In2022,

weobserved

anincrease

in

average

office

rent

by11.4

percent.However,

in

2023,

rental

growth

slowed

to3.2

percent,indicating

aweakening

demand.1000000-4,0%2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024eCompletedofficestockAverageOsloofficerentalgrowthGROWING

DISPARITY

IN

POPULARITY

BETWEEN

PRIME

ANDSECONDARY

OFFICE

LOCATIONSCHALLENGES

IN

OFFICE

CONSTRUCTIONSource:CBRE

ResearchIncreased

demand

anddisruptions

inthe

supply

chainduring

theCOVID-19

pandemic

resulted

in

material

shortages

andsignificantcost

escalation.

With

the

onset

of

inflation

in

2022,

constructionexpenses

havecontinued

to

rise.

Moreover,

the

surge

in

interestrates

hasapproximately

tripled

the

expense

of

constructionfinancing,

while

thelimited

availabilityof

landin

desirable

officelocations

has

putpressure

on

landprices.In

our

latestNordic

Office

Occupier

Sentiment

survey,

morethanhalfof

the

companies

indicate

plansto

relocate

to

betterquality

space

for

at

least

some

of

theirfunctions,

andafurther19percent

are

exploring

the

possibilities

for

doing

so.Figure10:Oslooffice

take-up

(sqm)1000000800

000600000400

0002000000The

gapbetween

prime

andsecondary

locations

will

continuetoexpandasoccupiers

shift

towards

quality.

Decisions

areincreasingly

driven

byaspects

such

asproximity

topublictransport,

retail,

leisure

public

areas,

andsustainability.Consequently,

the

overall

cost

of

establishing

new

office

spaces

issubstantially

higher

compared

to

pre-pandemic

levels.

Innumerousareas,

the

projected

rental

income

is

insufficient

tomake

officedevelopment

financially

viable.

These

consequences

are

evident

inthe

completed

new

development

statistics

for

2022

and2023,amounting

toapproximately

75,000

sqm

in

total.Buildings

andlocations

thatpossess

these

attributes

will

bemore

attractive

tousers,

experience

lower

vacancies,

andeventually

outperform

in

terms

of

value.

Indications

of

theseeffects

arealready

showing

astheaverage

rental

growth

in

Oslois

currently

3.2

percent

YoY,

while

GradeA

properties

(top

15percent)

have

an

annualgrowth

of

8.2

percent.2017201820192020202120222023Citycentre/CBDOutercityOuterOsloSource:CBRE

Research14CBRE

RESEARCH©2024

CBRE,

INC.Intelligent

InvestmentReal

EstateMarketOutlook

2024

|

NorwayModest

Rental

Growth

SettoContinueOSLO

CITY

CENTRE

DOMINATES

OFFICE

TRANSACTIONSFigure11:Employmentgrowth(%)

&Oslooffice-based

employmentgrowth(%)Office

investment

volumes

haveexperienced

asignificant

decline,plummeting

by

79percent

from

theextraordinary

year

of

2021.Offices

situated

in

secondary

locations

areparticularly

challengingtosell,

underscored

bythe

reality

thatnoNordic

investor

indicatedafocus

on

GradeB

or

Coffices

insuch

areasin

the

investorintentions

survey.6%5%4%3%2%1%ForecastNevertheless,

the

office

sector

continues

tobe

themost

transactedreal

estateasset

class

in

Norway.

Within

thetotaloffice

investmentvolume

of

NOK

14.5

billion

for

2023,

halfcanbe

attributed

totransactions

inOslo's

citycentre.MODEST

RENTAL

GROWTH

EXPECTEDIn

thecoming

years,

we

anticipateacontraction

inemploymentgrowth

across

Norway

andoffice-based

employment

growth

in

Oslotoarange

of

0.2-0.5

percent,

alleviating

some

of

the

pressure

intheoffice

leasing

market.Vacancyhasincreased

from

the

lowest

levels

of

around

5percentin

2022

tothe

current

estimate

of

6.2

percent

andis

expected

tocontinue

toedge

upward

in

2024,

with

centrally

situated

officesregistering

the

lowest

vacancynumbers.0%-1%Despite

the

deceleration

indemand,

restrained

supply

is

expectedtostimulate

modest

rental

growth.

Centrallocations

are

forecastedtomaintainanelevated

rental

growth,

asmanycorporationsconsider

itacrucial

factor

insecuring

top-tier

talent.EmploymentgrowthOffice-basedemployment

growthSource:CBRE

Research15CBRE

RESEARCH©2024

CBRE,

INC.Industrial

&

LogisticsThe

pandemic

drove

asurge

in

logisticsspace

demand,

especially

inOslo,

duetoonline

shoppingandsupply

chaindisruptions.

Despiteaproje