2024年的世界：全球大分化-国际政治研究所（英）

TheWorldin2024TheGreatFragmentationTheWorldin2024TheGreatFragmentationITALIANINSTITUTEFORINTERNATIONALPOLITICALSTUDIES©2024ISPIViaClerici5–20121Milan–Italywww.ispionline.itTheWorldin2024:TheGreatFragmentationFirstedition:December2023CoverimagebyFrancescoFadaniTheopinionsexpressedinthispublicationdonotnecessarilyreflectISPI’sposition.TheWorldin2024TheGreatFragmentationITALIANINSTITUTEFORINTERNATIONALPOLITICALSTUDIESGeopoliticsWarsThatBreakUsApart•Russia-UkraineAndreiKolesnikov(CEIPandISPI)7•Israel-GazaKarimMezran(AtlanticCouncilandISPI)10GlobalSouth:The“Rest”vstheWest?GustavoDeCarvalho(SAIIA)131619NoWorldforSuperowersSusanA.Thornton(YaleUniversity)TrustFailing,ArmRacingNanTian(SIPRI)ShatteredWest•USA2024:IfTrumpIsBackMarioDelPero(SciencesPoandISPI)2225•EuropeIsBack(ToSquareOne)AntonioVillafranca(ISPI)GeoeconomicsGolbalWorld:ChokingEnginesAliciaGarcíaHerrero(BruegelandISPI)3032BrokenValueChainsEmilyBenson(CSIS)TheWorldin2024theGreatFragmentationITALIANINSTITUTEFORINTERNATIONALPOLITICALSTUDIESEurope:TheSpectreofDe-industrializationNicolasKöhler-Suzuki(JacquesDelorsInstitute)353841DealingwiththeGreenBacklashDaveJones(Ember)DivideetAImpera:FakeNewsChangeGearsRohintonP.Medhora(CIGIandMcGillUniversity)ToWatch2024•Countrytowatch•Egypt,MarinaOttaway(WoodrowWilsonCenter)4550•Electiontowatch•India,PratapBhanuMehta(PrincetonUniversity)•Leadertowatch•BenjaminNetanyahu,AnshelPfeffer(Ha’aretzandTheEconomist)5356•MahmoudAbbas,TahaniMustafa(ICG)•Crisistowatch•Armenia-Azerbaijan,VickenCheterian(GenevaUniversity)5962•SudanandHornofAfrica,AlexdeWaal(WorldPeaceFoundation)|4TheWorldin2024TheGreatFragmentationTheWorldin2024TheGreatFragmentationITALIANINSTITUTEFORINTERNATIONALPOLITICALSTUDIESGEOPOLITICS|6TheWorldin2024TheGreatFragmentationITALIANINSTITUTEFORINTERNATIONALPOLITICALSTUDIESIWARSTHATnMarch2024,VladimirPutinwillrefreshhisownlegitimacyandreaffirmthatofhis“specialoperation”throughaquasi-electoralprocedureBREAKUSAPARTcalledthe“presidentialelectioninRussia”.Ano-alternative,approvingandoftencoerciveacclamation,whichhasmoretodowiththemediaevalNovgorodianveche(people’smeeting)thanwithmoderncompetitiveelections,thiswillallowPutintobelievethatthepeoplehavegivenhimamandatetocontinuehis“specialoperation”andrepressionwithinthecountry.Russia-UkraineAndreiKolesnikovCarnegieEndowmentforInternationalPeace(CEIP)andISPISOCIALCONTRACTFortheaverageRussian,thereisonlyonepragmaticquestion–whether,afteranemotionalmobilisationintheformofarallyaroundtheflaginMarch2024,theKremlinwillannounceanothermobilisation,thistimeamilitaryone?Afterall,thisishowtheauthoritiescanreadtheresultofthe“presidentialelection”–theabilitytodowhateverAndreiKolesnikov,SeniorFellowattheCarnegieRussiaEurasiaCenterandaSeniorResearchAssociateFellowatISPI.|7TheWorldin2024TheGreatFragmentationtheywantwiththebulkofthepopulationimmersedinlearnedindifference.However,despitetheapparentobedienceofthepopulation,raisingthelevelofanxietytounacceptablelevelsmeansbreakinganunwrittensocialcontract:you,theleadersofthecountry,drivenoteveryone,butonlysomepeopleintothetrenches,andmaintainasenseofnormalityineverydaylife,whilewe,thebulkofthepopulation,remainindifferenttoeverythingbutourownconsumptionandsupportanyendeavouroftheauthoritiesingratitudeforthis.But,first,theexperienceofDonaldTrump’spresidencyshowsthatdespitethemutualcomplimentsoftwoextravagantleaders,relationsbetweentheU.S.andRussiahaveonlydegeneratedinapracticalsense.Second,somecountriesinEuropearemovingtotherightwhileothersareliberalising(theexampleofPolandisproofofthat),butthecontinuationofthemostbrutalslaughterontheEuropeancontinentisnotamongtheprioritiesandvaluesofevenextremeright-wingpoliticians.Finally,the“worldmajority”,thatis,thecountriesofthenon-Westernworld,forwhichPutinwantstobecomeabeaconandamoralauthority,followinginthefootstepsoftheUSSR,arepragmaticenoughtoaccepthishelpbutmaintainamulti-vectorpolicy.ThesameappliestotheCIScountries,whichPutin’sexpansionismscaresoffratherthanconvincingthemthattheRussianautocratisthelordofanewempirebuiltonthewreckageoftheUSSR.Putin,havingchosenanaggressivelineofbehaviour,haslostratherthangainedtheopportunitytorestoretheempire.ThiscontractisconvenientforPutin,butitisalsoconvenientforthetensofmillionsofpassiveconformistswhomakeuphissupportbase.Butiftheseconformistsaretakenoutoftheircomfortzone,eventheirbehaviourcanbecomeunpredictable.ThatiswhyitismoreprofitableforPutin,evenaftertheelections,tocontinuethe“background”warwithfurthermilitarisationoftheconsciousnessofhissubjects,butwithoutthephysicalinvolvementofthemajorityinhismilitaryexpansionism.Theideologicalinvolvementofthismajorityinhisimperialprojectof“returningandstrengthening”Russianlandswillsuffice.BLACKSWANS“VICTORY”ANDFRAGMENTATIONInshort,fragmentationandevenconflictsamongtheelitesoftheU.S.andEuropeancountriesdonotguaranteetheWest’srejectionofitsvaluesandsupportforUkraine,includingpracticalfinancialandmilitaryassistance.Inanycase,eventhoughtheWestfeelswarfatigueandtheresourcestosupportUkrainearedwindling,thiswillnothelpPutinseriouslytoadvancehisexpansionismunlessheraisesthestakesandemployssome“miracleweapon.”Afterall,theRussianpopulation,forallitsindifferenceandfocusonsurvivalandconsumption,isalsogrowingwearyofwar,andThiswillnotrequirePutintochangehisforeignpolicyline(ifwhatheisdoingcaninprinciplebecalledforeignpolicy),whichboilsdowntowaitingtoseeifthefragmentationoftheunitedfrontoftheWest,andindeedoftheworld,willleadtowhathemightcallhis“victory.”IthasbecomeabanalitytobelievethattheRussianautocratwillwaitpatientlyfortheresultsofthepresidentialelectionsinvariouscountriesand,aboveall,intheUnitedStates.Andbesides,hewillhopeforthecorrectionofEurope.WarsThatBreakUsApart:Russia-Ukraine|8TheWorldin2024TheGreatFragmentationresources–financial,military,human,emotional,psychological–arealsodwindling.fathersandsons.Andtherearecircumstancesofobviousinjustice:realmurdererswhohavebeeninprison,aftersixmonthsofarmyservicereturnhomeasheroesandstartcommittingviolentcrimesagain,whilegoodobedientcitizenssitinthetrenchesformorethanayear,sometimesevenwithoutleave.Thisisnotyetananti-waroranti-Putinmovement,butitisanobviousnewphenomenonthatcouldtheoreticallydevelopintosomethingpolitical,although,giventhehighestlevelofrepressioninthecountry,thisisnotverylikely.ItusedtobethoughtthatPutin’seconomywouldcollapseandadisgruntledpopulationwouldteardownhisgovernment.Nowmainstreamassessmentshaveshiftedintheexactoppositedirection–Putinhasoutplayedeveryone,everythingisfinewithhim,andhecanwaitindefinitelyforvictory(whateverthatmaybe)tocomeonitsown.ButPutinisnotdoingwellintheeconomyandsocialsphere,andthingsarelookingbadforhisobjectiveofimprovingthequalityandquantityofhumancapitalduetodemographictrends,attritionoftheworkingpopulation,fallingbirthratescomplementedbyemigration,militarymobilisation,andobstaclestoplanningafamilyinuncertaincircumstances.Itmayseemnowthattheresourcesofhispoliticalsupportarelimitless,butnoonecanignorethephenomenonofblackswans:onlyin2023PutinsufferedamilitarymutinybyPrigozhinandthediscontentofrelativesofthemobilised,demandingthereturnofhusbands,Bydrivingthestateintoamodelofhybridtotal-itarianismandsocietyintoasemi-mobilisedpo-sition,Putinmayhave“won”intheshortandme-diumterm.ButhehasdefinitelylostthefutureforRussia–thelong-termperspective,andthusdoomedthecountry(andtheworld)toanend-lessstalemate.ButastheanthropologistVladimirYurchakwrote,referringtotheeternalSovietem-pire,“itwasforeveruntilitwasover”.WarsThatBreakUsApart:Russia-Ukraine|9TheWorldin2024TheGreatFragmentationITALIANINSTITUTEFORINTERNATIONALPOLITICALSTUDIESIWARSTHATBREAKUSAPARTtisindeedaverydifficulttaskthatofassessingtheconsequences,directandindirect,ofawarsuchasthatbetweenIsraelandHamas,beforeanendisevenonsight.Itisclearthat‘how’thewarwillendwilldetermineitsexternalconsequences.Havingsaidthatthereare,nevertheless,somemoreimmediateeffectsontheregionallevelthatcouldbediscussedwithrelativeconfidence.Thelimitedspaceaccordedtothisarticlewillnecessarilyforcetheauthortofocusonthemainconsequencesratherthanamoremeticulousdiscussionstatebystateoftheregion.Israel-GazaKarimMezranAtlanticCouncilandISPIThefirstquestiontobediscussediswhetherthewarhasunitedthealwaysfragmentedfrontoftheArabstates(plusTurkeyandIran)orhas(iscontributing)contributedtofurtherdivisions.Ontheonehand,therehasbeentheunanimouscondemnationofthe“Israelireactiontothe7thofOctobermassacre’asbeingbrutalanddisproportionate,but,ontheother,ithasKarimMezran,DirectoroftheNorthAfricaInitiativeandResidentSeniorFellowwiththeRafikHaririCenterandMiddleEastProgramsattheAtlanticCouncil.HeisaSeniorResearchAssociateFellowatISPI.|10TheWorldin2024TheGreatFragmentationappearedclearlythatatleasttwonarrativeshaveemergedwithintheArabstatesranks(reactions);onemoreextremeinitscondemnationofIsraelasanoccupyingNeo-colonialpower,thusreducingtheweightofthe7thofOctobereventsbyinsertingthemwithinacomparisonwiththemorethan50yearsPalestinianplight,andanotherthat,evenrecognizingthePalestiniantragedydoesnotdiminishtheeffectsofthe7thofOctoberferociousattacks,thusrecognizingasomewhatvalidreasonforIsraelreactionsbutcondemningitsscopeandwidth.ThefirstviewispurportedprincipallybyAlgeria,Tunisia,Libya,Syria,Iraq,whilethesecond,consideredthepositionofthe“moderate”ArabstatesisembracedbyUAE,SaudiArabiaEgypt,possiblyQatar,Morocco,andfewothers.Arabia.This“miracle”hasbeenpreemptedbytheIDF’sbombardmentsoverGaza,whichhasrenderedmorallyimpossibleafraternizationwithIsraelbythereligiouslycharacterizedanddefinedSaudielite.ForthetimebeingthereisnodoubtthattheAbrahamAccordswillnotseefurtherArabstates’adhesions,butthisdoesnotmeanthe“end”oftheprocesstowardsthesignatureoftheAccords.ThestatesoftheregionknowverywellthattherapprochementwithIsraelisaninevitableoutcomebecauseofthebenefitsthatitwillbringintermsofexploitationofthebenefitsofaregionalpeace,especiallyfromtheeconomicandsecuritystandpoints.Egyptisundoubtedlyoneofthestateswhichareconfrontedbytheconsequencesofthewarwhichhasmoretorisk.TheIsraelipressureontheGazaPalestinianpopulationtomovesouthinthedirectionoftheEgyptianbordermaycauseaRegionallyweneedtakenoticealsooftheIranianposition,whichwithitsalliessuchasHezbollahtheYemeniHouthis,theShiitemilitiasofIraqandSyriahavetakenanopposingpositiontowardsIsraelandapparentlyalsotowardsthemoderateArabstates.Turkey,alwaysbalancingitsinterestsandopportunitiesistakingastrongideologicalpositionagainstIsrael’sreaction,judgedcriminalandreckless,butatthesametimekeptitsactionswithinthenormaldiplomaticchannelswithoutprovokinganycounteractionsbytheJewishstate.furtheringofthehumanitariancrisis,whichwillpushthecivilianpopulationtobreakintoEgypt.ThismaycauseinternalturmoilandmayleadtoadramaticescalationinthepoliticalconfrontationswithinEgypt,particularlybetweentheregimeandthewidespreadmalcontentalreadyexistingamongthepopulationatlarge.ThepopularmalcontentdefinitelynotcausedbyanythingrelatingtoIsraelatthemomentbutrathertothedireeconomicsituationandpoliticalcorruption,couldindeedbetriggeredbythepotentialmass-Iftheanswertotheabovequestion“unityvsfragmentation”consequencesoftheWaristherefore“moredivisionandfragmentation”itbringstotheforeanotherquestion,fromapragmaticpointofviewanevenmoreimportantone,thatis,whatwillhappentotheAbrahamAccordswhichhadreachedthehard-to-believepointofalmostseeinganadhesionbySaudiexodusofGazans.Egypthassyettocometotermswiththecontradictionthathasaffectedallitsactions,aswellasthemoralvaluesofitssociety,sincetheendoftheYomKippurwarin1973,wherethecloserelationshipbetweentheEgyptianeliteandtheIsraeliestablishmentneverreallyspilledovertothepopulation.WarsThatBreakUsApart:Israel-Gaza|11TheWorldin2024TheGreatFragmentationMubaraktriedtofindawaytofacilitateasolutiontothiscontradiction,butfailed.AlSisiisfindingitprogressivelyharder,becausetheanti-Israelisentimentofthemajorityofthepopulationishardtoignoreevenforanelite“highlyinsulated”fromitspopulationliketheEgyptianone.Therefore,thereissomepreoccupationthatthelongerthewargoeson,thehighertheriskofdelegitimizationoftheEgyptianregimeis.Withimponderablebuteasilyforeseeableconsequences.outcomesoftheGazadestructionbytheIDF,woulddefinitelybeapositiveoutcome.ThiscooperationcouldhelpsolvethesituationinLibyathroughtheenforcementofadegreeofcollaborationbetweenthetwoopposingLibyangroupsandstabilizethecountry.Moreover,TurkeycouldusetheenormousinfluenceithasacquiredintheHornofAfricatohelpEgyptdealwiththeissuesithaswithEthiopia(regardingthebuildingoftheDamontheNile).AlgeriaistheothergiantinthemediterraneanthathasmuchtoloseorgainfromtheGazawar.Themilitaryinpowerusethe“pan-Arab”legitimacyofitsfoundingrevolutionagainsttheFrenchcolonialiststoconducttheoppositiontoIsraelfortherealreasonofre-strengtheningthisnationalnarrativewhichisatthebaseofitslegitimacyandmaintainthestronggriponpowerithasenjoyeduntilnow.Thus,theGazawarhasactedasamultiplierofthelegitimacyoftheregimewhichhasseenthepossibilitytorejuvenateapositionandvaluesthathadbecomesomewhat“rusty”.Thewarhascontributedtothere-emergenceofIslamisminmanycountries.Hamasisthepolitical-militarybranchofamovementbasedonreligiousvaluesandemanatingfromthebellyoftheIslamistpolitico-religiousmovementparexcellencetheMuslimBrotherhood.HamasconductsitsverbalwarinIslamicjargon,thuscreatingarounditselftheaureaoffollowerofthetraditionandservicetoGod.Its“heroic”(intheopinionofthepopulationsofthearea)anti-Israeliresistancehas,absurdlyasitmightbe,causedareturntolifeofmanyIslamistpartiesand,potentially,alsoofextremistterroristorganizationsandgroups.Thesituationisstilltoofluidtoascertaintheevolutionofitsconsequencesovertheregion.Muchwilldependonwhenandhowatruce,orapeaceagreementisreached.Ofcourse,thetragiceventsofthelasttwomonthsdonotgiveusmuchhopeoffindingalastingagreement.OneotherpossiblymorepositiveconsequenceintheregionalbalancemaycomefromtherealizationbyTurkeyandEgyptofthenegativityandself-destructiveresultofhavingunfriendly,ifnotbellicose,behaviortowardeachother.Awarmingupofrelationsbetweenthetwo,bornoutoftherealizationofthepotentiallydisastrousWarsThatBreakUsApart:Israel-Gaza|12TheWorldin2024TheGreatFragmentationTGLOBALSOUTH:THERESTvsTHEWEST?heyear2023hasseenheightenedinterestintheroleoftheGlobalSouthinshapingtheinternationalorder.IntheGlobalNorth,thisinterestoftenstemsfromtheperceptionofazero-sumcontestforglobalinfluence,oftenframedasadichotomybetweentheWestandthe“Rest.”Suchdualismisflawed,asitimpliestheWest’scentralityinworldaffairsandrelegatesothernationstoasecondaryposition,wheretheirgainsimplyalossfortheGlobalNorth.TherealityoftheGlobalSouth’sroleisfarmorecomplexandnuancedthanthissimplisticbinaryimplies,andsuggestsanimportantturningpointinglobalpolitics.GustavoDeCarvalhoSouthAfricanInstituteofInternationalAffairs(SAIIA)Theterm“GlobalSouth”primarilyreferstotheirinternationaleconomicandpoliticalconditions,ratherthantheirgeographicallocation.IncludingdevelopingnationsinLatinAmerica,AfricaandAsia,thisconceptemphasisesexistingandhistoricalinequalitiesandtheGustavodeCarvalho,SeniorResearcheronRussia-AfricatiesattheAfricanGovernanceandDiplomacyProgrammeattheSouthAfricanInstituteofInternationalAffairs(SAIIA).|13TheWorldin2024TheGreatFragmentationstateofmarginalisationcountriesencounterininternationalrelations.TheideaoftheGlobalSouthisalsoincreasinglyconnectedtotheindividualorcollectiveeffortstakenbydevelopingcountriesinactivelyshapinginternationaloutcomesandtheirdemandsforamoreequitableshareinglobaldecision-makingprocesses.itsinclinationtopursuenationalinterestsoveraligningwithNorthernpositions.AnotherindicationofthedivergingperspectivesbetweentheGlobalNorthandSouthisevidentintheirrespectivestancesontheGazasituation.CountriesfromtheGlobalSouthhaveidentifiedwhattheyseeasastarkdoublestandardintheNorth’shandlingofinternationalcrises.TheNorthernreluctancetoreacttoIsraelforitsactionsinGaza,juxtaposedwiththeirfirmdenouncementofRussia’saggressioninUkraine(andintensepressureforotherstodosotoo),hasfosteredafeelingofhypocrisyintheGlobalSouth,underminingtheNorth’sclaimedcommitmenttointernationallawanduniversalprinciples.CriticsarguetheGlobalSouthconceptoversimplifiesthenatureandscopeofdiversecountries,failingtocapturethemultipleeconomic,political,andculturalrealitiesofthecountriesitgroupstogether.However,theseviewsmightbeunfairlyassessingtheideaoftheGlobalSouthforwhatitdoesn’tinclude,ratherthanwhatitactuallyrepresents.Infact,it’svalueliesinhighlightingthesharedstrugglethesecountriesfaceininfluencingthemanagementoftheinternationalordercomparedtotheGlobalNorth,notinahomogenousidentity.TheroleofspecificgroupingswithintheGlobalSouth,suchasBRICS(Brazil,Russia,India,China,andSouthAfrica),isalsoevolvingshowingsignificantshiftsinmanyGlobalSouthcountries’effortstoincreasetheirglobalinfluence.AninformalgroupingcomposedofemergingandestablishedGlobalSouthpowers,akinothersliketheG7,hasgrownintoasubstantialforuminfluencingtrade,investment,andpolicyinemergingmarkets.AttheAugust2023SummitinJohannesburg,BRICSdecidedtoexpanditsmembershipandinviteArgentina,Egypt,Ethiopia,Iran,SaudiArabia,andtheUnitedArabEmiratestojoinfromJanuary2024.Thisexpansionwillbringastrongergeopoliticaltonetothegroup,althoughitraisesquestionsabouttheirabilitytomanageinternaldynamicsanddecision-makingprocesses.Inrecentyears,andparticularlyin2023,theGlobalSouthconcepthaspresentedanincreasinglygeopoliticalconnotation.Withinacontestedgeopoliticalspace,oftenbetweenNorthernandSoutherncountries,manysoutherncountries,likeBrazil,IndiaandSouthAfrica,havefocusedonapragmaticrealismtoachievetheirnationalinterests.Thisapproachallowsthesecountriestonavigateglobalpoliticsbybalancingtheirimmediateneedsandlong-termgoalswithoutbeingstrictlyboundtoideologicalalignmentsorblocpolitics.OneexampleofsuchapproacheswasinresponsetotheRussianinvasiontoUkrainein2022,wheremanyGlobalSouthcountriesresistedadoptingthesanctionsregimeimplementedonRussiabymanyGlobalNorthcountries.ShidoredescribessuchamoveasthepursuitofGlobalSouth’sstrategicautonomyandAnothercriticaldecisionatthesummitwastoexploremechanismstoreducetheirexposuretotherisksoffinancialsystemsdominatedbyGlobalSouth:The“Rest”vstheWest?|14TheWorldin2024TheGreatFragmentationtheGlobalNorth,particularlyviacurrenciesandsystemsofpayment.BRICSmembersdecidedtoengageinaninternaldiscussionthatwouldpursueanincreasinguseoflocalcurrenciesintheirbilateraltradeandconsideringalternativestothedominantSWIFTpaymentsystem.OutsideofBRICS,thereisamuchvasterrangeofGlobalSouthcountriesthatarepursuingtheirownpoliciesandstrategiestoincreasetheirinfluenceinglobalaffairs.ManyGlobalSouthcountries,likeMexico,Türkiye,andIndonesia,haveapproachedBRICSwithinasafedistance,choosingtoengagewiththeglobalorderviaadifferentpath.Thatdoesn’tmaketheirrole,voiceanddemandslessrelevantthanthemorevisibleBRICS.WhilethereislimitedsupportwithinBRICSregardingthecreationofacommoncurrency,thediscussionisinsteadcentredondiversifyingoptionsbyreducingtheirrelianceontheUSdollarandSWIFTpaymentsystemasthesolevehiclesforinternationaltrade.AttheJohannesburg2023Summit,governorsofcentralbanksandministersoffinanceweretaskedbymemberstatestoidentifymechanismsthatcouldreducetheirexposuretoperceivedglobalfinancialthreats.SomeofthemodalitiesandproposalsareexpectedtobepresentedanddiscussedduringthenextBRICSSummit,expectedtobeheldinKhazan,Russia,inmid-to-late2024.TheincreasingmisconceptionofthenatureandscopeofGlobalSouthactioncancreateamajorsetbackforamoreconstructiveNorth-Southcooperation,whichhasbeenattemptingtostrengthentieswiththeGlobalSouthamidglobalpowercompetition.FormanycountriesintheSouth,thisrenewedinterestisseenwithdistrust,astheyseethemselvesbeinginstrumentalisedasaproxyofthebroadercompetitionbetweenlargerNorthernandSoutherncountries,liketheUSandChina.UnderstandingtheGlobalSouthasaconceptisimportant,butbundlingtheirpositionstogetherashomogeneousisadangerouspath.Itcanleadtocondescendingpolicies,thatreducesindividualagencyandunderstandingofglobaldynamics.Thus,engagingwiththeGlobalSoutheffectivelyrequirestheGlobalNorthtorecogniseandadapttothesechanginggeopoliticalrealities,focusingonmutualbenefitsandrespectingnationalsovereignty.WhileGlobalSouthcountriesarepartofBRICS,it’simportantnottoseeBRICSasagroupthatisarepresentativeoftheGlobalSouthasawhole.Andthereareinternalandexternalreasonsforthat.Internally,BRICSmembersveryoftendisagreeonapproaches,views,positionsandinterestsregardingtheexistingglobalorder.Asaresult,theytendtocentretheirengagementsonissueswherethereisaminimalcommonagreementamongstthemselves.Ifthereisastarkdisagreement,theseissuesareoftenplacedoutoftheagendaordilutedintheirdecisionstoaccommodatebroaderconsensus.Thus,BRICSisnotseekingtoengageineveryinternationalorevenGlobalSouthissuesordemands.GlobalSouth:The“Rest”vstheWest?|15TheWorldin2024TheGreatFragmentationITALIANINSTITUTEFORINTERNATIONALPOLITICALSTUDIESAs2023comestoaclose,geopoliticalcompetitionbetweentheU.S.andChinaisdominatingtheglobalagenda.WeseethisNOWORLDFORSUPERPOWERSinthesquaringoffoverwarsintheMiddleEastandUkraine,overglobaltradeandpotentialsupplychainvulnerabilities,andwithconcernsabout“geopoliticalrisk”dominatingtheglobaleconomicandbusinessagenda.TheDecemberCOP28summitinUAE,meanttobeginthestocktakingonprogresstowardkeepingglobaltemperaturerisebelow1.5degreesCelsius,hasdevolvedintofingerpointing.Wearecurrentlynotontracktomeeteventhemaximumtargetsfortemperaturerise,andthereisnoquestionthat,withoutmajorcooperationeffortsfromtheU.S.andChina,wewillnot.GlobalpopulationsmayappeartofinallybebeyondthedevastatingeffectsoftheCOVID-19pandemic,butgovernmentsandinstitutionshavenotabsorbedthelessonsfromthatdisaster,andsomearelookingwithsuspicionatanewriseinpneumoniaratesinChina.Meanwhile,countriesbatteredbyeconomicdownturn,fromEuropeSusanA.ThorntonYaleUniversitySusanA.Thornton,seniorU.S.diplomatwithalmostthreedecadesofexperiencewiththeU.S.StateDepartmentinEurasiaandEastAsia.SheiscurrentlyaSeniorFellowattheYaleLawSchool(YaleUniversity).|16TheWorldin2024TheGreatFragmentationtoLatinAmericatoAfrica,facemajordomesticchallengesfrompopulistpolitics,socialunrestanddebt.Confrontationamongmajorpowerspromotesandperpetuatesinstabilityanddisruption,upsettingthefoundationfromwhichothershavetomanage,asseeninthefalloutfromRussia’swarinUkraineandheightenedtensionsintheTaiwanStrait.conflict.Twenty-firstcenturyglobalchallengeswillnotbemetamidthiscompetition.Resourceswillbedivertedfromglobalpublicgoodsandtensionsandconflictwilldominatetheglobalagenda,aswealreadysee.Giventhisreality,whatcanbedonetominimizethisprospect,topreserveandexpandthegainsofglobalizationandasingleinternationalcommunitywhilefindingandagreeingonneededadjustmentstopreserveafunctioningandsecureorder?OfficialsandcommentatorsaroundtheworldseemresignedtoseeinggeopoliticalcompetitionbetweentheU.S.andChinadriveanddominatetheglobalagendaandjostlesmallernationsintheprocess.Itistakenasagiventhat,inthecurrentdomesticpoliticalandgeopoliticalenvironment,negotiatedsolutionsthatinvolvecompromis