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NET
ZEROENERGY
BY
2060Charting
the
Path
of
Europeand
Central
Asia
Towarda
Secure
and
SustainableEnergy
FutureCONTENTSAbbreviationsandacronyms
.........................................................................................................6Definitionsofsubregions................................................................................................................7Acknowledgments
...........................................................................................................................8Executivesummary
.......................................................................................................................10Countrycoverage
............................................................................................................................11Key
findings
on
short-term
energy
security
................................................................................11Key
findings
on
the
energy
transition
and
energy
security
in
the
longer
term......................13The
use
of
coal,
oil,
and
gas
in
the
region
is
on
the
decline
through
2060....................14Renewable
energy
can
gradually
replace
fossil
fuels,
aided
by
energy
efficiency........14Greater
investment
will
be
needed
to
achieve
the
Net
Zero
2060
goal.........................15Part1•Short-termenergysecurityintheregion:Thecrisisisnotover................................17Redefining
energy
security.............................................................................................................17Gas
security......................................................................................................................................19Impact
on
Russia’s
gas
production
......................................................................................22Impact
on
countries
in
the
region........................................................................................23Gas
security
in
the
EU4
and
Western
Balkan
countries....................................................26Gas
security
in
Central
Asia...................................................................................................27The
limits
of
Türkiye’s
ability
to
absorb
Russia’s
surplus
gas...........................................28Oil
security:
Ongoing
shifts
............................................................................................................30Energy
security
and
the
energy
transition...................................................................................35Part2•Theenergytransition:Apathwaytoanetzeroregionby2060.................................37What
does
it
take
to
decarbonize
the
region?
............................................................................42Transforming
the
region’s
gas
sector...........................................................................................45Developing
a
hydrogen
sector.......................................................................................................48Transforming
the
region’s
power
sector......................................................................................52The
importance
of
system
flexibility
for
increasing
the
role
of
renewables..................55The
combined
effect
of
better
demand
response
and
heightened
production
ofgreen
hydrogen
......................................................................................................................59The
role
of
regional
power
exchanges
for
energy
security..............................................59Transforming
energy
use
in
the
transport,
buildings,
and
industrial
sectors........................62Buildings
..................................................................................................................................63Transport
.................................................................................................................................65Industry....................................................................................................................................66References
......................................................................................................................................68Appendix1•MethodologyoftheWorldBank’senergymodel
................................................72Appendix2•Decarbonizingdistrictheating
..............................................................................77Appendix3•Low-carbonfertilizerproductioninCentralAsia................................................79Appendix4•Selectedliquid
fuelpricingsubsidiesimplementedinEuropeand
CentralAsia..
81Appendix5•GreenhousegasemissionsintheEuropeandCentralAsiaregionin2020.....82List
of
boxesBox2.1•
World
Bank
Group
support
of
green
hydrogen
projects
in
Poland
and
Chile..................49Box2.2•
Delaying
the
transmission
of
energy
price
shocks
to
consumers:
Good
or
bad?............57List
of
figuresFigureES.1•
Actual
and
projected
energy-related
greenhouse
gas
emissions
by
sector
in
Europeand
Central
Asia
under
the
Net
Zero
2060
scenario,
2019–60............................................................13FigureES.2•
Energy
sector
milestones
on
the
pathway
to
Net
Zero
Energy
2060
in
Europe
andCentral
Asia
region.....................................................................................................................................16Figure1.1•
Net
imports
in
Europe
and
Central
Asia
region
as
share
of
total
energy
supply,
bycountry
and
fuel
type,
2019......................................................................................................................18Figure1.2•
Domestic
fossil
fuel
production
as
percentage
of
total
energy
supply
(self-sufficiency)in
Europe
and
Central
Asia,
by
country,
2020........................................................................................19Figure1.3•
Pipeline
gas
flows
from
the
Russian
Federation
to
the
European
Union,
January
2021–June
2023.....................................................................................................................................................20Figure1.4•
Actual
and
projected
natural
gas
prices
at
the
Dutch
Title
Transfer
Facility,January
2016–July
2031..............................................................................................................................21Figure1.5•
Actual
and
projected
changes
in
Russian
natural
gas
production
from
2021
levels,2022–25........................................................................................................................................................22Figure1.6•
Gas
dependence
and
gas
import
dependence
in
Europe
and
Central
Asia,
by
country,2020
...........................................................................................................................................................23Figure1.7•
Underground
storage
capacity
as
a
share
of
total
consumption
in
Europe
and
CentralAsia,
by
subregion,
2021............................................................................................................................24Figure1.8•
Explicit
and
implicit
natural
gas
subsidies
within
Europe
and
Central
Asia
as
a
shareof
GDP,
2022
...............................................................................................................................................25Figure1.9•
Natural
gas
consumption
subsidies
in
selected
countries
in
Europe
and
Central
Asia,2010–22........................................................................................................................................................26Figure1.10•
Projected
natural
gas
balance
in
Central
Asia
in
the
base
case
and
gas
unionscenarios,
2023–25.....................................................................................................................................28Figure1.11•
Actual
and
projected
gas
production,
consumption,
and
import
dependence
inTürkiye,
2019–30.........................................................................................................................................29Figure1.12•
Actual
and
hypothetical
Turkish
imports
of
Russian
gas,
2019–30.............................30Figure1.13•
Seaborne
crude
oil
exports
by
the
Russian
Federation,
by
destination,January
2022
and
July
2023.......................................................................................................................31Figure1.14•
Exports
of
Russian
oil
products,
by
destination,
January
2022
and
July
2023...........32Figure1.15•
EU
imports
of
Russian
crude
oil
and
oil
products,
January
2019–April
2023
(millionsof
tonnes).....................................................................................................................................................32Figure1.16•
Domestic
gasoline
prices
without
taxes
in
selected
countries
in
Europe
and
CentralAsia,
January
2019–July
2023
(€/liter).......................................................................................................34Figure1.17•
Global
upstream
investments
in
oil
and
gas,
2010–26
($
billion)................................35Figure2.1•
Actual
and
projected
energy-related
greenhouse
gas
emissions
by
sector
in
Europeand
Central
Asia
under
the
reference,
partial
decarbonization,
and
Net
Zero
2060
scenarios,2019–60........................................................................................................................................................38Figure2.2•
Actual
and
projected
shares
of
clean
and
fossil
fuels
in
the
primary
energy
mix
inEurope
and
Central
Asia
under
the
reference
and
Net
Zero
2060
scenarios,
2019–60...................39Figure2.3•
Projected
final
energy
consumption
in
Europe
and
Central
Asia
under
the
referenceand
Net
Zero
2060
scenarios,
by
fuel
type.............................................................................................40Figure2.4•
Energy
sector
milestones
on
the
pathway
to
Net
Zero
Energy
2060
in
Europe
andCentral
Asia
region.....................................................................................................................................43Figure2.5•
Actual
and
projected
global
consumption
of
natural
gas
under
the
reference
and
NetZero
2060
scenarios,
2019–60..................................................................................................................45Figure2.6•
Actual
and
projected
global
consumption
of
natural
gas
under
the
World
Bank’s
NetZero
2060
scenario,
by
sector,
2019–60..................................................................................................46Figure2.7•
Actual
and
projected
production,
consumption,
and
trade
balance
in
Europe
andCentral
Asia
under
the
World
Bank’s
Net
Zero
2060
scenario,
2019–60............................................46Figure2.8•
Actual
and
projected
net
export
balance
in
Europe
and
Central
Asia
under
the
WorldBank’s
Net
Zero
2060
scenario,
2019–60................................................................................................47Figure2.9•
Actual
and
projected
consumption
of
natural
gas
in
Europe
and
Central
Asia
underthe
World
Bank’s
Net
Zero
2060
scenario,
by
sector,
2019–60
...........................................................47Figure2.10•
Actual
and
projected
global
consumption
of
low-carbon
hydrogen
and
share
of
totalfinal
energy
consumption
under
the
World
Bank’s
Net
Zero
2060
scenario,
2019–60....................48Figure2.11•
Actual
and
projected
production
of
low-carbon
hydrogen
in
Europe
and
Central
Asiaunder
the
World
Bank’s
Net
Zero
2060
scenario,
2019–60..................................................................50Figure2.12•
Projected
production
of
low-carbon
hydrogen
from
electrolysis
and
from
fossil
fuelswith
carbon
capture,
usage,
and
storage
in
Europe
and
Central
Asia
in
2060
under
the
WorldBank’s
Net
Zero
2060
scenario,
by
subregion........................................................................................51Figure2.13•
Project
pipeline
in
2023
and
projected
production
of
low-carbon
hydrogenin
2060
in
Europe
and
Central
Asia
under
the
World
Bank’s
Net
Zero
2060
scenario,
bysubregion.....................................................................................................................................................51Figure2.14•
Projected
use
of
low-carbon
hydrogen
sector
in
Europe
and
Central
Asiain
2060
under
the
World
Bank’s
Net
Zero
2060
scenario,
by
subregion............................................52Figure2.15•
Aggregate
trends
in
electricity
generation
for
ECA
countries,
2010–20
.....................53Figure2.16•
Share
of
renewables
in
energy
mix
in
Europe
and
Central
Asia,
by
country,
2019..54Figure2.17•
Actual
and
projected
electricity
generation
by
fuel
in
Europe
and
Central
Asia
underthe
reference
and
Net
Zero
2060
scenarios,
2025–60..........................................................................54Figure2.18•
Flexible
electricity
system
resources
and
the
role
of
demand
aggregators
..............59Figure2.19•
Actual
and
projected
total
final
energy
consumption
in
Europe
and
Central
Asia
(excludingRussia
and
Belarus)
under
the
reference
and
Net
Zero
2060
scenarios,
by
sector,
2021–60......................62Figure2.20•
Actual
and
projected
total
final
energy
consumption
by
buildings
in
Europe
andCentral
Asia
(excluding
Russia
and
Belarus)
under
the
reference
and
Net
Zero
2060
scenarios,
byfuel
type,
2021–60
......................................................................................................................................63Figure2.21•
Actual
and
projected
number
of
residential
heat
pumps
in
Europe
and
Central
Asiaunder
the
World
Bank’s
Net
Zero
2060
scenario,
by
subregion,
2019–60.........................................64Figure2.22•
Actual
and
projected
uptake
of
insulation
measures
and
heat
pumps
in
Europe
andCentral
Asia
under
the
reference
and
Net
Zero
2060
scenarios,
2019–60........................................64Figure2.23•
Actual
and
projected
total
final
energy
consumption
in
the
transport
sectorin
Europe
and
Central
Asia
(excluding
Russia
and
Belarus)
under
the
reference
and
NetZero
2060
scenarios,
2021–60..................................................................................................................65Figure2.24•
Actual
and
projected
number
of
electric
vehicles
in
Europe
and
Central
Asia
underthe
World
Bank’s
Net
Zero
2060
scenario,
by
vehicle
type,
million
vehicles,
2019–60
....................66Figure2.25•
Actual
and
projected
final
energy
consumption
of
industry
sector
in
Europe
andCentral
Asia
under
the
reference
and
Net
Zero
2060
scenarios,
by
fuel
type,
2021–60
.................67FigureA1.1•
Structure
of
the
KINESYS
model
......................................................................................72FigureA3.1•
Levelized
cost
of
green
(solar-powered),
blue,
and
gray
ammonia
production
inCentral
Asia
under
the
Net
Zero
2060
scenario.....................................................................................80List
of
tablesTable2.1•
Projected
investment
needs
in
Europe
and
Central
Asia
in
the
reference
and
NetZero
2060
scenarios,
by
sector.................................................................................................................44TableB2.2.1•
Ability
to
mitigate
transmission
of
short-term
price
shocks
to
consumers
in
Europeand
Central
Asia,
by
country.....................................................................................................................58Table2.2•
Day-ahead,
intra-day,
and
futures
markets
of
power
exchanges
in
Europe
and
CentralAsia,
by
country
..........................................................................................................................................61TableA1.1•
Data
sources
for
and
inputs
into
the
model....................................................................74TableA4.1•
Selected
liquid
fuel
pricing
measures
implemented
in
Europe
and
Central
Asiain
2022,
by
country.....................................................................................................................................81TableA5.1•
Global
greenhouse
emissions
and
emissions
within
Europe
and
Central
Asia,
bycountry,
2020
..............................................................................................................................................82ABBREVIATIONS
AND
ACRONYMSb/dbarrels
per
daybcmbillion
cubic
metersCCDRCCSCCUSCO2DHCountry
Climate
and
Development
Reportcarbon
capture
and
storagecarbon
capture,
usage,
and
storagecarbon
dioxidedistrict
heatinge-mobilityECAESMAPEUelectric
mobilityEastern
Europe
and
Central
AsiaEnergy
Sector
Management
Assistance
ProgramEuropean
UnionEU4EVBulgaria,
Croatia,
Poland,
Romaniaelectric
vehicleIEAInternational
Energy
AgencyInternational
Energy
Agency’s
Energy
Technology
Systems
Analysis
Programgross
domestic
productInternational
Group
of
Liquefied
Natural
Gas
Importersgeographic
information
systemgreenhouse
gasIEA-ETSAPGDPGIIGNLGISGHGGWgigawattIIASA
GLOBIOM
International
Institute
for
Applied
Systems
Analysis,
Global
Biosphere
Management
ModelIFCIMFInternational
Finance
CorporationInternational
Monetary
FundIntergovernmental
Panel
on
Climate
ChangeKnowledge-based
Investigation
of
Energy
System
Scenariosliquefied
natural
gasliquefied
petroleum
gasmegawattmegawatt
hourmegatonneIPCCKINESYSLNGLPGMWMWhMtttonnetCO
eSSPTIMESTFCTPESTTFtonnes
of
carbon
dioxide
equivalentShared
Socioeconomic
PathwayThe
Integrated
MARKAL-EFOM
System
of
IEA-ETSAPtotal
final
energy
consumptiontotal
primary
energy
supplyTitle
Transfer
Facility2TWhUNterawatt
hourUnited
NationsUS
EPAVATUnited
States
Environmental
Protection
Agencyvalue
added
taxAll
currency
is
in
United
States
dollars
unless
otherwise
indicated.Unless
otherwise
noted,
the
graphs
and
charts
presented
herein
represent
results
of
an
original
modelconceived
by
the
authors,
and
historical
data
are
sourced
from
the
International
Energy
Agency’s
2019
and2020
Energy
Balances.DEFINITIONS
OF
SUBREGIONSECA
consists
of
the
following
subregions
and
countries:SubregionCountryorcountriesCentralAsiaCaucasusKazakhstan,
Kyrgyz
Republic,
Tajikistan,
Turkmenistan,
UzbekistanArmenia,
Azerbaijan,
GeorgiaEU4Bulgaria,
Croatia,
Poland,
RomaniaRussia,BelarusTürkiyeRussia,
BelarusTürkiyeUkraine,MoldovaWesternBalkansUkraine,
MoldovaAlbania,
Bosnia
and
Herzegovina,
Kosovo,
North
Macedonia,
Montenegro,
SerbiaACKNOWLEDGMENTSThe
World
Bank
ECA
Energy
Futures
team
worked
under
the
leadership
of
Anna
Bjerde,
Antonella
Bassani,Carolina
Sanchez-Paramo,
Charles
Joseph
Cormier,
Sudeshna
Ghosh
Banerjee,
Stephanie
Gil,
and
IvailoIzvorski.
The
World
Bank
ECA
Energy
Futures
core
team
included
Task
Team
Leader
Szilvia
Doczi
and
co-authors
Akos
Losz
(parts
1
and
2);
Amit
Kanudia
(appendix
1,
energy
system
model
developer);
Armin
Mayer(part
2);
Bobur
Khodjaev,
Humphrey
Fellow
(appendix
3);
Elcin
Akcura
(part
1
and
appendix
4);
Peter
Toth(part
2);
Raimund
Malischek
(parts
1
and
2
and
appendix
1);
Rocco
De
Miglio
(parts
1
and
2
and
appendix
1);and
Tarek
Keskes
(part
2
and
appendix
5).
Unless
otherwise
noted,
the
projected
years
in
tables,
graphs,and
charts
presented
herein
represent
results
of
an
original
model
conceived
by
the
authors,
while
thehistorical
data
are
sourced
from
the
International
Energy
Agency’s
2019
and
2020
Energy
Balances.The
report
benefited
from
World
Bank
peer
reviewer
comments
received
from
Alexander
Huurdeman,Ani
Balabanyan,
Maria
Vagliasindi,
and
Rafael
De
Sa
Ferreira
and
inputs
and
comments
from
WorldBank
subject
matter
experts
including
Zuzana
Dobrotkova
(renewables),
Jas
Singh
(energy
efficiency
andsustainable
heating),
David
Groves
and
Craig
Meisner
(climate),
Dolf
Jean
Gielen
(hydrogen
and
industry),Priyank
Lathwal
(hydrogen),
Adam
Brown
(renewables),
Claire
Nicholas
(power
sector),
Masami
Kojima(oil
and
gas),
Shomik
Raj
Mehndiratta
(transport),
Karla
Gonzalez
Carvajal
(transport),
Eduardo
EspitiaEcheverria
(transport),
Joao
Rampini
(transport),
and
Nicole
Frost,
Nick
Keyes,
Aaron
Korenewsky,
ZarinaNurmukhambetova
(communications).
World
Bank
energy
specialist
colleagues
Silvia
Martinez
Romero,Manuel
Berlengiero,
Stephan
Claude
Frederic
Garnier,
Claire
Nicolas,
Joern
Huenteler,
Katharina
Gassner,Claudio
Protano,
Maksud
Safarov,
Irina
Voitekhovitch,
Almudena
Mateos
Merino,
Chris
Trimble,
Yun
Wu,Tamara
Babayan,
Mariano
Gonzalez
Serrano,
Luiz
Gabriel
Sucrmont
Rodrigues
Simoes,
Hazuki
Terada,
andCelia
Rui
provided
regional
and
country
insights
on
hydro
and
nuclear
expansion,
electricity,
and
gas
cross-border
transmission
capacity
expansion
pathways,
and
energy
efficiency
potentials.The
ECA
Energy
Futures
report
benefited
from
invaluable
insights
and
peer
review
comments
fromits
Advisory
Committee
members:
Sauleh
Siddiqui,
Chief
Modeler
of
the
U.S.
Energy
InformationAdministration;
Tim
Gould,
Chief
Economist
of
the
International
Energy
Agency;
Tatiana
Mitrova,
ResearchFellow
at
Columbia
University’s
Center
on
Global
Energy
Policy;
and
Laszlo
Varro,
Vice
President,
GlobalBusiness
Environment
at
Shell.
The
report
benefited
from
comments,
interviews,
inputs,
and
insights
fromAraceli
Fernandez
Pales,
Apostolos
Petropoulos,
Brent
Wanner,
Craig
Hart,
Christophe
McGlade,
JeromeHilaire,
Jonathan
Coppel,
Paul
Hugues,
Peter
Zeniewski,
Simon
Bennett,
Stephanie
Bouckaert,
Uwe
Remme,and
Zoe
Hungerford
(International
Energy
Agency);
Luis
Janeiro
(International
Renewable
Energy
Agency);Douglas
Nordham
(Future
Energy
Leader,
GHD);
Francisco
Venturini;
and
Daniele
Andreoli
(Enel
X).The
team
would
like
to
thank
Demetrios
Papathanasiou
(Global
Director,
EEX),
Chandrasekar
Govindarajalu(Practice
Manager,
ESMAP),
and
Gabriela
Elizondo
Azuela
(Practice
Manager,
Latin
America
and
Caribbean;former
Practice
Manager,
ESMAP)
for
their
managerial
guidance
and
invaluable
support.Steven
B.
Kennedy
edited
the
report.Adil
Bekishev
designed
the
report.Photo
credits:Front
cover
has
been
designed
using
assets
from
F.All
images
remain
the
sole
property
of
their
source
and
may
not
be
used
for
any
purpose
without
writtenpermission
from
the
source.The
Energy
Sector
Management
Assistance
Program
(ESMAP)
is
a
partnership
between
the
World
Bankand
over20
partners
to
help
low-
and
middle-income
countries
reduce
poverty
and
boost
growth
throughsustainable
energy
solutions.
ESMAP’s
analytical
and
advisory
services
are
fully
integrated
within
the
WorldBank’s
country
financing
and
policy
dialogue
in
the
energy
sector.
Through
the
World
Bank,
ESMAP
worksto
accelerate
the
energy
transition
required
to
achieve
Sustainable
Development
Goal
7
(SDG7)
to
ensureaccess
to
affordable,
reliable,
sustainab
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