IS THE SPITZENKANDIDAT PROCESS A WASTE OF TIME此为应为文档

Insight

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IstheSpitzenkandidatprocessawasteoftime?

byChristinaKeßler,3June2024

TheSpitzenkandidat(leadcandidate)processhasnotfulfilleditspromiseofengagingtheaverage

voter.Still,ithashelped‘europeanise’theEuropeanParliamentelectionsandisworthpersistingwith.

WhoshoulddecidewhobecomesthePresidentoftheEuropeanCommission,theEU’sexecutive

body?Oneoptionisthe(democratically-elected)governmentsofthemember-states.Anotheris

the(democratically-elected)EuropeanParliament.TheSpitzenkandidat(leadcandidate)processisa

compromisethatwassupposedtogivebothintergovernmentalistsandfederalistssomeofwhattheywanted.Thisinsightexplainsbothwhyithasnotworkedasintendedsofar,andalsowhytheEuropeanParliamentneverthelessshoulddoubledownonitforthe2029elections.

Theoriginsoftheprocess

TheSpitzenkandidatprocessdoesnotappearinanytreaty,thoughitreflectstheevolvingroleofthe

EuropeanParliamentintheappointmentoftheEuropeanCommission,andthechangingbalanceof

powerbetweennationalgovernmentsandMEPs.TheTreatyofRomegavetheAssembly(theEuropeanParliament’spredecessor)noroleinappointingtheCommissionoritspresident:bothwereappointedbyconsensusoftheCouncil.TheMaastrichttreatyof1992obligedtheCounciltoconsulttheParliamentbeforenominatingtheCommissionpresident;theParliamentthenhadtoapprove(orreject)the

Commissionasawhole.IntheAmsterdamtreatyof1997,theParliamentforthefirsttimegainedthepowertoapprovetheCommissionpresidentseparatelyfromtherestoftheCommission.

Itwasthe2009LisbonTreatythat(implicitly)createdthebasisfortheSpitzenkandidatprocess:Article17oftheTreatyonEuropeanUnionnowstates:

“TakingintoaccounttheelectionstotheEuropeanParliamentandafterhavingheldtheappropriateconsultations,theEuropeanCouncil,actingbyaqualifiedmajority,shallproposetotheEuropean

ParliamentacandidateforPresidentoftheCommission.ThiscandidateshallbeelectedbytheEuropeanParliamentbyamajorityofitscomponentmembers.”

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Thephrase“takingintoaccounttheelections”wasnotintendedtomeanthattheEuropeanCouncil

shouldcedetherighttochoosetheCommissionpresidenttothelargestpartygroupintheParliament,buttheParliamentsawanopeningtotiltthebalanceofpowerintheEUinitsfavour,andtomaketheCommissionpresidentmoredependentonthefavourofMEPsthannationalleaders.MEPswantedeachEuropeanpoliticalpartytonominatea(lead)candidateforCommissionpresidentbeforetheelections.Aftertheelections,theEuropeanCouncilwassupposedtoendorsethecandidatefromthepartythat

wonthemostseats.TheEuropeanParliamentwouldthenapprovetheappointment.Proponentsof

the

process

arguedthatitwouldgetridoftheopaquehorsetradingintheEuropeanCouncilthat

accompaniedtheselectionofCommissionpresidents.BygivingEuropeanvoterstheopportunityto

directlyinfluencetheselectionoftheCommissionpresident,supportersalsoarguedthattheprocesswouldincreasetheEU’sdemocraticlegitimacy.Finally,manyhopedthatmorepersonalisedcampaignswouldincreasevoterturnoutandcitizenengagement.

Successin2014,failurein2019

Aheadofthe2014elections,fiveEuropeanpoliticalpartiesnominatedleadcandidates.Thelead

candidatesvisiteddifferentEUmember-statesandtookpartinteleviseddebatesthatwerebroadcastinseverallanguagesandbydifferentmediaoutlets.ProponentsoftheleadcandidateprocesswelcomedthisasasteptowardsatrulyEuropeanpublicsphere.Asinpreviouselections,thecentre-rightEuropeanPeople’sParty(EPP)emergedwiththemostMEPs;itsSpitzenkandidatwastheformerprimeministerofLuxembourgJean-ClaudeJuncker.

TheEuropeanCouncilhadbeencriticaloftheleadcandidateprocessandvieweditasanattemptto

subvertitspowerinselectingtheCommissionpresident.TherewasresistancefromseveralmembersoftheEuropeanCounciltoJuncker’sappointment,includingfromtheUKunderitsthen-primeministerDavidCameron.ButtherewasremarkablecohesionwithintheEuropeanParliamentinsupportof

Juncker,whichcameassomewhatofasurprisetotheEuropeanCouncil,andhewaseventuallyapprovedbyboththeEuropeanCouncilandtheParliamentasCommissionpresident.

Aftertheexperienceof2014,theParliamenttriedtoinstitutionalisetheleadcandidateprocess.Then-

EuropeanCouncilPresidentDonaldTusk,however,whilenotcategoricallyrejectingtheprocess,insistedthatthelargestparty’snomineewouldnotautomaticallybeputforwardforCommissionpresidentbymember-statesafterthenextelections,stressingtheautonomouscompetenceoftheCouncilinthe

nominationofaCommissionpresidentcandidate.WithintheEPP,AngelaMerkel(then-chancellorofGermany)andHermanvanRompuy(formerprimeministerofBelgiumandformerEuropeanCouncilpresident)opposedtheprocess.Nevertheless,theEPPeventuallyputforwardaleadcandidateforthe2019election:ManfredWeber,theleaderoftheEPPgroupintheParliament.

EventhoughtheEPPonceagainwonthelargestnumberofseats,theEuropeanCouncilrefusedto

nominateWeberasCommissionpresident.TherewasoppositiontotheleadcandidateprocessgenerallyandtoWeberasacandidate.Headsofstateandgovernment,suchasFrenchpresidentMacron,had

seriousdoubtsabouthislackofexecutiveexperience–acontrastwithJuncker,who,asaformerprimeminister,wasgenerallyseenaswellqualified.FransTimmermans,theleadcandidateputforwardby

theSocialists,alsofacedoppositionintheEuropeanCouncil.Instead,theCouncilnominatedUrsula

vonderLeyen,aGermanCDU(andthereforeEPP)politicianandformerdefenceminister,whohadnotbeenassociatedwiththeleadcandidateprocessinanyway.ShemanagedtosecureamajorityintheEuropeanParliamentandwaselectedCommissionPresident.

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The2024EuropeanParliamentelectioncampaign

The2019experienceledanalystsandjournaliststo

proclaim

thedeathoftheSpitzenkandidatprocess.Despitethis,severalEuropeanpoliticalpartiesonceagainputforward

contenders

tobeCommissionpresidentaheadofthe2024elections.

ThepartyelitesthemselvesseemuncertainabouttheSpitzenkandidatprocess,however.TheEPP

supportsvonderLeyen,whoisfightingforasecondtermaschiefoftheCommission.Butapartfrom

her–well-knownastheincumbentpresident–theaveragevoterwouldbehard-pressedtonameanyofthecandidates.ThePartyofEuropeanSocialists(PES)hasputforwardNicolasSchmitfromLuxembourg,thecurrentCommissionerforJobsandSocialRights.Hemightbeawell-knownnameinLuxembourg;

inothercountriesheisnot.Heisacomfortablecandidatebehindwhomthesocialistpartiescanunite

inanuncontroversialcampaign,buthedoesnotseemseriousaboutbecomingthenextCommission

president.IfthegoalofPESwereactuallytoreplacevonderLeyen,theywouldhaveselectedacandidatewithmorestarpower,forexampleformerFinnishprimeministerSannaMarin.

BothLiberalsandGreenshaveputforwardmultipleleadcandidates,whichlikewiseshowsthatthey

seetheirleadcandidatesnotasrealisticcontendersfortheCommissionpresidency,butratheras

figureswhocanunitetheirpartyfamilies.TheLiberalshavethreeleadcandidates:ValérieHayerand

SandroGozifromFranceandMarie-AgnesStrack-ZimmermannfromGermany.Eachofthemrepresentsoneofthefactionsthatformthe‘RenewEurope’politicalgroupintheParliament.Thisisactuallyan

improvementon2019,whentheLiberalsputforwardsevencandidatesasajoint‘TeamEurope’.Strack-ZimmermannisafixtureonGermantalkshowsbuthasneverbeforeappearedontheEuropeanstage.TheEuropeanGreenParty(EGP)hasputforwardaduoofTerryReintkefromGermanyandBasEickhoutfromtheNetherlands.

Groupsonthepopulistrighthavenotengagedwiththeprocessatall.TheEuropeanConservativesandReformists(ECR)didnotnominatealeadcandidate,amiddisagreementsonwhomtosupportaswellasdoubtsovertheprocessingeneral.TheIdentityandDemocracyParty(ID)likewisedidnotfieldanofficialleadcandidateduetoideologicaloppositiontotheprocess.

WhiletheleadcandidateshavebeentouringEuropeandgoinghead-to-headinpoliticaldebatesfor

thelastfewweeks,theSpitzenkandidatprocessisonlypartiallyachievingitsoriginalgoals.Thelead

candidateprocesswassupposedtoclarifythelinkbetweentheEuropeanParliamentelectionsandthenewCommissionpresidentforvotersacrossEurope.Itwasalsosupposedtodoawaywithhorse-tradingintheEuropeanCouncil,buteventsin2019showedthatitfailedonbothaccounts.VonderLeyenhasagoodchanceofbecomingCommissionpresidentagain,buthersuccesswilldependmoreonthe

supportshecanmusterfromtheEuropeanCouncilandavarietyofpoliticalpartiesfromcentre-lefttopopulistrightintheEuropeanParliamentthanonthefactthatsheistheEPP’sleadcandidate.

Towardstransnationallists

Despiteitsshortcomings,however,theleadcandidateprocesshassomebenefits.Itcontributesto

makingtheEuropeanParliamentelectionsamoreEuropeanundertakingbybringingEuropeanpoliticalpartyfamiliesclosertogether.Theyareforcedtoputforwardatleastsomesemblanceofacoherent

Europeanmessagethroughacommoncandidate,moreeffectivelythanthroughtheirpublicationofacommonmanifesto(whichnoonereads).

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TheSpitzenkandidatprocesshasbroughtEuropeanpoliticalfamiliesonestepclosertobecomingfully

fledgedpartieswithalltheassociatedresponsibilities,forexample,nominatingcandidatesforpublic

office.ButtoensurethatoneoftheleadcandidatesendsupasCommissionpresident,Europeanpoliticalpartiesneedtoputforwardhigh-profilecandidates.Leadcandidatesthatarenotformerheadsofstatesorgovernments,orministersareunlikelytobetakenseriouslybytheEuropeanCouncil.Additionally,iftheleadcandidateswereallpeoplewiththerequisiteprofile,skills,andgovernmentexperienceneededforthejob,theEuropeanParliamentcoulduseitspowertorejectanynomineeasCommissionpresidentwhowasnotaleadcandidatewithconfidencethatthejobwouldbefilledbysomeonecapable.

OnereformproposalwouldenabletheSpitzenkandidatprocesstofulfilitspurposeand‘europeanise’theEuropeanelectioncampaignnotjustforpartyelitesbutalsotheaveragevoter:theleadcandidates

shouldrunontransnationallists.Inthecurrentsystem,nationalpartiesputforwardthelistsof

candidatesfortheEuropeanParliamentelections.Thismeansthatcitizenscanonlyvoteforcandidatesintheirowncountryofresidence(orcitizenship,ifthetwodiffer).Proponentsoftransnationallists

arguethattherealsoshouldalsobeanEU-wideconstituency.Votersshouldhavetwovotes,oneforacandidateintheirnational‘constituency’,andoneforacandidateinanEU-wideconstituency.

Transnationallistsarenotanewidea.TheEuropeanParliamenthaslong

backed

theformationof

suchlistsinordertocreateaEuropeanconstituency.WhiletherewassomehopefromproponentsoftransnationalliststhattheEuropeanParliamentseatslostduetoBrexitcouldbeusedforthispurpose,transnationallistswillnotbearealityinthe2024electionsduetorejectionsfromtheCouncil.

Iftheleadcandidatesweretransnationalcandidates,however,theywouldbeforcedtocampaignin

awaythatengagesallEUcitizens.Theirfaces,forexample,wouldbeshowcasedonbillboardsacross

Europe(whichiscurrentlynotthecase),andtheywouldhavetoaddresstheircampaignstowardsall

Europeansratherthanonlythoseintheirnationalconstituencies.ThentheleadcandidateprocesswouldaccomplishitsoriginalpurposeofconnectingtheEuropeanParliamentelectionandtheCommission

presidencymorevisi