保险行业4月月报：寿险保费仍实现两位数增长产险业务增速放缓

证券研究报告l4月单月人身险公司保费同比+10.0%，较3月增速有所放缓。1）2024年1-4月人身险原保费20591亿元，同比+12.1%，规模保费23871亿元，同比+10.4%；可比口径下，人身险公司原保费收入同比+4.7%。4月单月人身险公司原保费规模达2578亿元，同比+10.0%，较3月增速下滑8.5pct，较2023年同期增速下滑4.7pct。2）1-4月保户投资新增交费（万能险为主）同比+1%，投连险同比-18%。4月单月保户投资新增交费同比+5%，较3月增速下滑6pct；投连险同比+64%，增速由负转正（3月为-26%）。3）我们预计，4月保费保持较快增长，主要是由于：①市场储蓄需求依然旺盛，传统型储蓄险产品销售尚可；②上年同期新单保费的改善带动了2024年当期续期保费的增长。而伴随上年同期高基数的影响，4月保费增速也环比有所下滑，我们预计大部分公司新单保费增长面临短期压力。l4月单月健康险保费同比+1.8%，较3月增速-4.1pct。1）2024年1-4月健康险保费同比+7.2%，2023年同期增速为+5.1%。4月单月健康险保费同比+1.8%，较3月增速下滑4.1pct，2023年同期增速为+6.2%。4月末健康险占比为21%，较3月末提升1.0pct。2）我们认为，从中长期来看健康险仍有较大发展空间，通过打通保险、体检、康复、养老、药品、医院等产业链条，建立“健康管理+医疗服务+保险”的一站式健康生态系统，能够有效提高客户粘性，为保险业务增长l4月产险公司保费同比+2.3%，车险、非车险增速均放缓。1）2024年1-4月产险公司保费达6166亿元，按可比口径同比+4.5%。4月单月产险公司保费达1261亿元，同比+2.3%，较3月增速下滑4.5pct，其中车险、非车险增速均有放缓。2）车险保费增速小幅放缓。4月车险保费同比+3.5%，较3月增速略降0.5pct。根据汽车工业协会数据，4月份汽车市场需求继续恢复，汽车产销环比分别-10.5%/-12.5%，同比分别+12.8%/+9.3%，新能源车产销分别同比+35.9%/+33.5%，市场占有率达到36%。我们认为，由于新能源车单均保费较传统燃油车更高，伴随新能源汽车渗透率的提升，亦将增强车险保费增长动力。3）大部分非车险保费增速环比下滑。健康险/责任险/意外险/农险4月保费分别同比+10%、+3%、-7%、-8%，分别较3月增速-10pct、+1pct、-10pct、-26pct。我们认为，农险等政策性业务的短期波动主要是由于招标节奏延后所致。4）我们认为，以人保财险为代表的头部险企保费整体维持较快增长并且业务质地较好，车险业务中低赔付率的家自车占比较高、渠道费率可控，因此我们认为行业龙头盈利空间远超中小险企，其竞争优势在改革下半场将愈发凸显。l负债端有韧性，资产端迎来改善，低估值+低持仓，攻守兼备。1）我们认为市场储蓄需求依然旺盛，在其他资产收益率下行背景下，保险产品相对竞争力仍显著。2）近期十年期国债收益率企稳至2.31%左右，我们预计，未来伴随国内经济复苏，长端利率若修复上行，则保险公司新增固收类投资收益率压力将有所缓解。同时，地产相关利好政策的持续落地，也有利于险企投资资产质量担忧情绪的缓解。3）当前公募基金对保险股持仓处于低位，估值对负面因素反应充分。2024年5月28日保险板块估值0.38-0.70倍2024EP/EV，处于历史低位，持续看好保险行业。l风险提示：长端利率趋势性下行；股市持续低迷；新单保费增长不及预期。22180001600014000120001000080006000400020000+13.8%+2.9%+7.2%+1.4%-2.9%-18.2%-2.9%财产险意外险健康险寿险投资款新增交费投连险新增交费2023/4/302024/4/30据不尽相同。50%60%50%50%60%50%40%30%20%10% -10%-20%-30%30%28%\32%30%28%23%23%-2%2020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-092023-112024-012024-03健康险保费同比增速25.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%-20.0%-25.0%车险单月保费同比增速车险累计保费同比增速334.13.93.73.53.33.12.92.72.52.32.14月累计4月单月4月累计4月单月44证券简称证券简称价格（元）人民币新华保险-A证券简称证券简称人民币新华保险-A证券简称证券简称人民币新华保险-A证券简称证券简称人民币新华保险-A55APPENDIX1SummaryInvestmentHighlights:April’slifeinsuranceoriginalpremiumincomegrewby10.0%YoY,healthinsuranceby1.8%,andproperty&casualtyby2.3%,alldeceleratingfromMarch.We’reoptimisticaboutleadinginsurers’long-termgrowth.Withresilientliabilitiesandimprovingassets,valuationsarelow,offeringahighsafetymargin,maintainingan‘Outperform’rating.April’slifeinsurancepremiumsslowedcomparedtoMarch.FromJanuarytoApril2024,lifeinsuranceoriginalpremiumsreachedRMB2.059trillion,up12.1%YoY,withpremiuminflowatRMB2.387trillion,up10.4%.Onacomparablebasis,lifeinsuranceoriginalpremiumincomeincreasedby4.7%YoY.April’slifeinsuranceoriginalpremiumvolumewasRMB257.8billion,up10.0%YoYbutdown8.5percentagepointsfromMarchand4.7pointsfromthesameperiodin2023.FromJanuarytoApril,policyholderinvestmentpayments(mainlyuniversalinsurance)increasedby1%YoY,whileunit-linkedinsurancedecreasedby18%.InApril,policyholderinvestmentpaymentsgrewby5%YoY,down6pointsfromMarch;unit-linkedinsuranceturnedpositivewitha64%increase(comparedto-26%inMarch).WeexpectApril’spremiumstomaintainrapidgrowthduetostrongmarketsavingsdemandandimprovedcontinuousinstallmentpremiumsfromthepreviousyear’snewpolicies.However,duetothehighbaseeffectfromthepreviousyear,April’spremiumgrowthalsoslowedmonth-on-month,andweanticipatemostcompanieswillfaceshort-termpressureonnewpolicypremiumgrowth.HealthinsurancepremiumsinAprilincreasedby1.8%YoY,a4.1-pointdecreasefromMarch.FromJanuarytoApril2024,healthinsurancepremiumsgrewby7.2%,comparedto5.1%inthesameperiodin2023.April’shealthinsurancepremiumsincreasedby1.8%YoY,a4.1-pointdecreasefromMarchanda6.2%increasefromthesameperiodin2023.BytheendofApril,healthinsuranceaccountedfor21%ofthetotal,up1.0pointfromtheendofMarch.Webelievethatinthemediumtolongterm,healthinsurancehassignificantgrowthpotential.Byintegratingtheinsuranceindustrywithmedicalcheck-ups,rehabilitation,elderlycare,pharmaceuticals,andhospitals,aone-stophealthecosystemcombining‘healthmanagement+medicalservices+insurance’canbeestablished,effectivelyenhancingcustomerloyaltyandempoweringinsurancebusinessgrowth.Property&casualtyinsurancepremiumsinAprilgrewby2.3%YoY,withbothautoandnon-autoinsuranceslowing.FromJanuarytoApril2024,property&casualtyinsurers’premiumsreachedRMB616.6billion,up4.5%onacomparablebasis.April’sproperty&casualtyinsurancepremiumswereRMB126.1billion,up2.3%YoYbutdown4.5pointsfromMarch,withbothautoandnon-autoinsuranceslowing.AutoinsurancepremiumsslightlydeceleratedinApril,up3.5%YoY,aslight0.5-pointdropfromMarch.AccordingtotheChinaAssociationofAutomobileManufacturers,theautomarketcontinuedtorecoverinApril,withproductionandsalesdown10.5%and12.5%month-on-month,butup12.8%and9.3%YoY,respectively.NEVproductionandsalesincreasedby35.9%and33.5%YoY,respectively,withamarketshareof36%.WebelievethatasNEVshavehigheraveragepremiumsthantraditionalfuelvehicles,theincreasingpenetrationrateofNEVswillalsoenhancethegrowthmomentumofautoinsurancepremiums.Mostnon-autoinsurancepremiumsslowedmonth-on-month.Health,liability,accident,andagriculturalinsurancepremiumsinAprilgrewby10%,3%,anddecreasedby7%and8%YoY,respectively,achangeof-10,+1,-10,and-26pointsfromMarch.Wethinktheshort-termfluctuationsinpolicy-drivenbusinesseslikeagriculturalinsurancearemainlyduetodelayedbiddingprocesses.WebelievethatleadinginsurerslikePICCP&Cmaintainrapidpremiumgrowthwithgoodbusinessquality.Withahigherproportionoflow-loss-ratioprivatecarsandcontrollablechannelratesinautoinsurance,wethinktheleadingcompanies’profitmarginsfarexceedthoseofsmallerinsurers,andtheircompetitiveadvantageswillbecomeincreasinglyprominentinthesecondhalfofthereform.Liabilitiesshowresilience,andassetsareimproving,withlowvaluationsandlowholdings,readyforbothoffenseanddefense.Webelievethemarket’sdemandforsavingsremainsstrong,andinsuranceproductscontinuetobecompetitiveasotherassetyieldsdecline.Recently,theyieldonten-yeargovernmentbondshasstabilizedataround2.31%.Weexpectthatwiththedomesticeconomicrecovery,iflong-terminterestratesrebound,insurers’pressureonnewfixed-incomeinvestmentyieldswillease.Continuousimplementationofrealestate-relatedpolicieswillalsoalleviateconcernsaboutthequalityofinsurers’investmentassets.Currently,publicofferingfundsholdlowpositionsininsurancestocks,andvaluationsfullyreflectnegativefactors.AsofMay28,2024,theinsurancesector’svaluationwas0.38-0.70times2024EP/EV,historicallylow.Weremainpositiveonthesector.RiskWarning:Long-terminterestratestrenddownward;thestockmarketremainsdepressed;newpolicypremiumgrowthisweakerthanexpected.1下下2