高盛-财新指数6月大跌

3July2024|10:33AMHKT

China:CaixinservicesPMIfellnotablyinJune

Bottomline:

TheCaixinChinaGeneralServicesBusinessActivityIndex(headlineservicesPMI)fellto51.2inJunefrom54.0inMay,suggestingservicesectoractivitycontinuedtoexpandbutataslowerpace.

Keynumbers:

CaixinservicesPMI:51.2inJune(Bloombergconsensus:53.4),vs.54.0inMay.

Mainpoints:

1.TheCaixinChinaGeneralServicesBusinessActivityIndex(headlineservicesPMI)fellto51.2inJunefrom54.0inMay,thelowestreadingsinceOctober2023,

suggestingservicesectoractivitycontinuedtoexpandbutataslowerpace.

Surveyedcompaniesnotedthatmarketoptimismweakened,recordingthelowestlevelsinceMarch2020,asthemarketwasconcernedaboutdownwardpressureontheeconomy.

2.Thenewbusinessindexfellto52.1inJune(vs.55.4inMay)whilethe

outstandingbusinessindexroseto52.1inJune(vs.49.5inMay).Thenewexportorderssub-indexmoderatedto53.7inJunefrom53.9inMay.Theemployment

sub-indexdecreasedto49.7(vs.50.7inMay).Surveyedcompaniesindicatedthatserviceprovidersweregenerallyreluctanttohireadditionalstaff,leadingto

_

accumulatedbacklogsintheservicesector.

3.PriceindicatorssuggesttheinflationarypressureseasedsomewhatinJune.Theinputpricessub-indexdecreasedto52.0from52.4.Theoutputpricessub-indexalsofellto50.2from51.6inMay.Surveyedcompaniesindicatedthatinputmaterial,laborandtransportcostscontributedtotheincreaseinoperatingexpenses,andservice

providerssoughttosharerisingcostburdenswithcustomers.

YutingYang

+852-2978-7283|

yuting.y.yang@

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

HuiShan

+852-2978-6634|hui.shan@GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

LishengWang

+852-3966-4004|

lisheng.wang@

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

XinquanChen

+852-2978-2418|

xinquan.chen@

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

AndrewTilton

+852-2978-1802|andrew.tilton@GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegAC

certificationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto/research/hedge.html.

GoldmanSachsChina

CaixinandNBSservicesPMIsfellinJune

Index

60

55

50

45

40

35

ChinaServicesPMIs:

NBS

Caixin

Index

60

55

50

45

40

35

30

30

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

Source:NBS,Caixin

_

3July20242

GoldmanSachsChina

DisclosureAppendix

RegAC

We,YutingYang,HuiShan,LishengWang,XinquanChenandAndrewTilton,herebycertifythatalloftheviewsexpressedinthisreportaccuratelyreflectourpersonalviews,whichhavenotbeeninfluencedbyconsiderationsofthefirm’sbusinessorclientrelationships.

Unlessotherwisestated,theindividualslistedonthecoverpageofthisreportareanalystsinGoldmanSachs’GlobalInvestmentResearchdivision.

Disclosures

Regulatorydisclosures

DisclosuresrequiredbyUnitedStateslawsandregulations

Seecompany-specificregulatorydisclosuresaboveforanyofthefollowingdisclosuresrequiredastocompaniesreferredtointhisreport:managerorco-managerinapendingtransaction;1%orotherownership;compensationforcertainservices;typesofclientrelationships;managed/co-managedpublicofferingsinpriorperiods;directorships;forequitysecurities,marketmakingand/orspecialistrole.GoldmanSachstradesormaytradeasa

principalindebtsecurities(orinrelatedderivatives)ofissuersdiscussedinthisreport.

Thefollowingareadditionalrequireddisclosures:Ownershipandmaterialconflictsofinterest:GoldmanSachspolicyprohibitsitsanalysts,professionalsreportingtoanalystsandmembersoftheirhouseholdsfromowningsecuritiesofanycompanyintheanalyst’sareaofcoverage.

Analystcompensation:AnalystsarepaidinpartbasedontheprofitabilityofGoldmanSachs,whichincludesinvestmentbankingrevenues.Analystasofficerordirector:GoldmanSachspolicygenerallyprohibitsitsanalysts,personsreportingtoanalystsormembersoftheirhouseholdsfrom

servingasanofficer,directororadvisorofanycompanyintheanalyst’sareaofcoverage.Non-U.S.Analysts:Non-U.S.analystsmaynotbeassociatedpersonsofGoldmanSachs&Co.LLCandthereforemaynotbesubjecttoFINRARule2241orFINRARule2242restrictionson

communicationswithsubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbytheanalysts.

AdditionaldisclosuresrequiredunderthelawsandregulationsofjurisdictionsotherthantheUnitedStates

Thefollowingdisclosuresarethoserequiredbythejurisdictionindicated,excepttotheextentalreadymadeabovepursuanttoUnitedStateslawsandregulations.Australia:GoldmanSachsAustraliaPtyLtdanditsaffiliatesarenotauthoriseddeposit-takinginstitutions(asthattermisdefinedinthe

BankingAct1959(Cth))inAustraliaanddonotprovidebankingservices,norcarryonabankingbusiness,inAustralia.Thisresearch,andanyaccesstoit,isintendedonlyfor“wholesaleclients”withinthemeaningoftheAustralianCorporationsAct,unlessotherwiseagreedbyGoldmanSachs.In

producingresearchreports,membersofGlobalInvestmentResearchofGoldmanSachsAustraliamayattendsitevisitsandothermeetingshostedbythecompaniesandotherentitieswhicharethesubjectofitsresearchreports.InsomeinstancesthecostsofsuchsitevisitsormeetingsmaybemetinpartorinwholebytheissuersconcernedifGoldmanSachsAustraliaconsidersitisappropriateandreasonableinthespecificcircumstancesrelatingtothesitevisitormeeting.Totheextentthatthecontentsofthisdocumentcontainsanyfinancialproductadvice,itisgeneraladviceonlyandhas

beenpreparedbyGoldmanSachswithouttakingintoaccountaclient’sobjectives,financialsituationorneeds.Aclientshould,beforeactingonany

suchadvice,considertheappropriatenessoftheadvicehavingregardtotheclient’sownobjectives,financialsituationandneeds.Acopyofcertain

GoldmanSachsAustraliaandNewZealanddisclosureofinterestsandacopyofGoldmanSachs’AustralianSell-SideResearchIndependencePolicy

Statementareavailableat:/disclosures/australia-new-zealand/index.html.Brazil:DisclosureinformationinrelationtoCVMResolutionn.20isavailableat/worldwide/brazil/area/gir/index.html.Whereapplicable,theBrazil-registeredanalystprimarilyresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreport,asdefinedinArticle20ofCVMResolutionn.20,isthefirstauthornamedatthebeginningofthisreport,unlessindicatedotherwiseattheendofthetext.Canada:Thisinformationisbeingprovidedtoyouforinformationpurposesonlyandisnot,andundernocircumstancesshouldbeconstruedas,anadvertisement,offeringorsolicitationbyGoldmanSachs&Co.LLCforpurchasersof

securitiesinCanadatotradeinanyCanadiansecurity.GoldmanSachs&Co.LLCisnotregisteredasadealerinanyjurisdictioninCanadaunder

applicableCanadiansecuritieslawsandgenerallyisnotpermittedtotradeinCanadiansecuritiesandmaybeprohibitedfromsellingcertainsecuritiesandproductsincertainjurisdictionsinCanada.IfyouwishtotradeinanyCanadiansecuritiesorotherproductsinCanadapleasecontactGoldman

SachsCanadaInc.,anaffiliateofTheGoldmanSachsGroupInc.,oranotherregisteredCanadiandealer.HongKong:Furtherinformationonthe

_

securitiesofcoveredcompaniesreferredtointhisresearchmaybeobtainedonrequestfromGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.India:FurtherinformationonthesubjectcompanyorcompaniesreferredtointhisresearchmaybeobtainedfromGoldmanSachs(India)SecuritiesPrivateLimited,Research

Analyst-SEBIRegistrationNumberINH000001493,951-A,RationalHouse,AppasahebMaratheMarg,Prabhadevi,Mumbai400025,India,CorporateIdentityNumberU74140MH2006FTC160634,Phone+912266169000,Fax+912266169001.GoldmanSachsmaybeneficiallyown1%ormoreofthesecurities(assuchtermisdefinedinclause2(h)theIndianSecuritiesContracts(Regulation)Act,1956)ofthesubjectcompanyorcompanies

referredtointhisresearchreport.Investmentinsecuritiesmarketaresubjecttomarketrisks.Readalltherelateddocumentscarefullybefore

investing.RegistrationgrantedbySEBIandcertificationfromNISMinnowayguaranteeperformanceoftheintermediaryorprovideanyassuranceofreturnstoinvestors.GoldmanSachs(India)SecuritiesPrivateLimitedInvestorGrievanceE-mail:india-client-support@.ComplianceOfficer:AnilRajput|Tel:+912266169000|Email:anil.m.rajput@.Japan:Seebelow.Korea:Thisresearch,andanyaccesstoit,isintendedonlyfor

“professionalinvestors”withinthemeaningoftheFinancialServicesandCapitalMarketsAct,unlessotherwiseagreedbyGoldmanSachs.Further

informationonthesubjectcompanyorcompaniesreferredtointhisresearchmaybeobtainedfromGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.,SeoulBranch.NewZealand:GoldmanSachsNewZealandLimitedanditsaffiliatesareneither“registeredbanks”nor“deposittakers”(asdefinedintheReserveBankofNewZealandAct1989)inNewZealand.Thisresearch,andanyaccesstoit,isintendedfor“wholesaleclients”(asdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersAct2008)unlessotherwiseagreedbyGoldmanSachs.AcopyofcertainGoldmanSachsAustraliaandNewZealanddisclosureofinterestsisavailableat:

/disclosures/australia-new-zealand/index.html

.Russia:ResearchreportsdistributedintheRussianFederationarenotadvertisingasdefinedintheRussianlegislation,butareinformationandanalysisnothavingproductpromotionastheirmainpurposeanddonot

provideappraisalwithinthemeaningoftheRussianlegislationonappraisalactivity.ResearchreportsdonotconstituteapersonalizedinvestmentrecommendationasdefinedinRussianlawsandregulations,arenotaddressedtoaspecificclient,andarepreparedwithoutanalyzingthefinancial

circumstances,investmentprofilesorriskprofilesofclients.GoldmanSachsassumesnoresponsibilityforanyinvestmentdecisionsthatmaybetakenbyaclientoranyotherpersonbasedonthisresearchreport.Singapore:GoldmanSachs(Singapore)Pte.(CompanyNumber:198602165W),whichisregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingapore,acceptslegalresponsibilityforthisresearch,andshouldbecontactedwithrespecttoanymatters

arisingfrom,orinconnectionwith,thisresearch.Taiwan:Thismaterialisforreferenceonlyandmustnotbereprintedwithoutpermission.Investorsshouldcarefullyconsidertheirowninvestmentrisk.Investmentresultsaretheresponsibilityoftheindividualinvestor.UnitedKingdom:PersonswhowouldbecategorizedasretailclientsintheUnitedKingdom,assuchtermisdefinedintherulesoftheFinancialConductAuthority,shouldreadthis

researchinconjunctionwithpriorGoldmanSachsresearchonthecoveredcompaniesreferredtohereinandshouldrefertotheriskwarningsthathavebeensenttothembyGoldmanSachsInternational.Acopyoftheseriskswarnings,andaglossaryofcertainfinancialtermsusedinthisreport,are

availablefromGoldmanSachsInternationalonrequest.

EuropeanUnionandUnitedKingdom:DisclosureinformationinrelationtoArticle6(2)oftheEuropeanCommissionDelegatedRegulation(EU)(2016/958)supplementingRegulation(EU)No596/2014oftheEuropeanParliamentandoftheCouncil(includingasthatDelegatedRegulationis

3July20243

GoldmanSachsChina

implementedintoUnitedKingdomdomesticlawandregulationfollowingtheUnitedKingdom’sdeparturefromtheEuropeanUnionandtheEuropeanEconomicArea)withregardtoregulatorytechnicalstandardsforthetechnicalarrangementsforobjectivepresentationofinvestment

recommendationsorotherinformationrecommendingorsuggestinganinvestmentstrategyandfordisclosureofparticularinterestsorindicationsofconflictsofinterestisavailableat/disclosures/europeanpolicy.htmlwhichstatestheEuropeanPolicyforManagingConflictsof

InterestinConnectionwithInvestmentResearch.

Japan:GoldmanSachsJapanCo.,Ltd.isaFinancialInstrumentDealerregisteredwiththeKantoFinancialBureauunderregistrationnumberKinsho69,andamemberofJapanSecuritiesDealersAssociation,FinancialFuturesAssociationofJapanTypeIIFinancialInstrumentsFirmsAssociation,The

InvestmentTrustsAssociation,Japan,andJapanInvestmentAdvisersAssociation.Salesandpurchaseofequitiesaresubjecttocommission

pre-determinedwithclientsplusconsumptiontax.Seecompany-specificdisclosuresastoanyapplicabledisclosuresrequiredbyJapanesestockexchanges,theJapaneseSecuritiesDealersAssociationortheJapaneseSecuritiesFinanceCompany.

Globalproduct;distributingentities

GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchproducesanddistributesresearchproductsforclientsofGoldmanSachsonaglobalbasis.AnalystsbasedinGoldmanSachsofficesaroundtheworldproduceresearchonindustriesandcompanies,andresearchonmacroeconomics,currencies,commoditiesandportfoliostrategy.ThisresearchisdisseminatedinAustraliabyGoldmanSachsAustraliaPtyLtd(ABN21006797897);inBrazilbyGoldmanSachsdoBrasilCorretoradeTítuloseValoresMobiliáriosS.A.;PublicCommunicationChannelGoldmanSachsBrazil:08007275764and/or

contatogoldmanbrasil@.AvailableWeekdays(exceptholidays),from9amto6pm.CanaldeComunicaçãocomoPúblicoGoldmanSachsBrasil:08007275764e/oucontatogoldmanbrasil@.Horáriodefuncionamento:segunda-feiraàsexta-feira(excetoferiados),das9hàs18h;inCanada

byGoldmanSachs&Co.LLC;inHongKongbyGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.;inIndiabyGoldmanSachs(India)SecuritiesPrivateLtd.;inJapanby

GoldmanSachsJapanCo.,Ltd.;intheRepublicofKoreabyGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.,SeoulBranch;inNewZealandbyGoldmanSachsNew

ZealandLimited;inRussiabyOOOGoldmanSachs;inSingaporebyGoldmanSachs(Singapore)Pte.(CompanyNumber:198602165W);andinthe

UnitedStatesofAmericabyGoldmanSachs&Co.LLC.GoldmanSachsInternationalhasapprovedthisresearchinconnectionwithitsdistributionintheUnitedKingdom.

GoldmanSachsInternational(“GSI”),authorisedbythePrudentialRegulationAuthority(“PRA”)andregulatedbytheFinancialConductAuthority(“FCA”)andthePRA,hasapprovedthisresearchinconnectionwithitsdistributionintheUnitedKingdom.

EuropeanEconomicArea:GSI,authorisedbythePRAandregulatedbytheFCAandthePRA,disseminatesresearchinthefollowingjurisdictionswithintheEuropeanEconomicArea:theGrandDuchyofLuxembourg,Italy,theKingdomofBelgium,theKingdomofDenmark,theKingdomof

Norway,theRepublicofFinlandandtheRepublicofIreland;GSI-SuccursaledeParis(Parisbranch)whichisauthorisedbytheFrenchAutoritéde

contrôleprudentieletderesolution(“ACPR”)andregulatedbytheAutoritédecontrôleprudentieletderesolutionandtheAutoritédesmarches

financiers(“AMF”)disseminatesresearchinFrance;GSI-SucursalenEspaña(Madridbranch)authorizedinSpainbytheComisiónNacionaldel

MercadodeValoresdisseminatesresearchintheKingdomofSpain;GSI-SwedenBankfilial(Stockholmbranch)isauthorizedbytheSFSAasa“thirdcountrybranch”inaccordancewithChapter4,Section4oftheSwedishSecuritiesandMarketAct(Sw.lag(2007:528)omvärdepappersmarknaden)

disseminatesresearchintheKingdomofSweden;GoldmanSachsBankEuropeSE(“GSBE”)isacreditinstitutionincorporatedinGermanyand,withintheSingleSupervisoryMechanism,subjecttodirectprudentialsupervisionbytheEuropeanCentralBankandinotherrespectssupervisedbyGermanFederalFinancialSupervisoryAuthority(BundesanstaltfürFinanzdienstleistungsaufsicht,BaFin)andDeutscheBundesbankanddisseminatesresearchintheFederalRepublicofGermanyandthosejurisdictionswithintheEuropeanEconomicAreawhereGSIisnotauthorisedtodisseminateresearch

andadditionally,GSBE,CopenhagenBranchfilialafGSBE,Tyskland,supervisedbytheDanishFinancialAuthoritydisseminatesresearchintheKingdomofDenmark;GSBE-SucursalenEspaña(Madridbranch)subject(toalimitedextent)tolocalsupervisionbytheBankofSpaindisseminatesresearchintheKingdomofSpain;GSBE-SuccursaleItalia(Milanbranch)totherelevantapplicableextent,subjecttolocalsupervisionbytheBankofItaly(Bancad’Italia)andtheItalianCompaniesandExchangeCommission(CommissioneNazionaleperleSocietàelaBorsa“Consob”)disseminatesresearchin

Italy;GSBE-SuccursaledeParis(Parisbranch),supervisedbytheAMFandbytheACPRdisseminatesresearchinFrance;andGSBE-SwedenBankfilial(Stockholmbranch),toalimitedextent,subjecttolocalsupervisionbytheSwedishFinancialSupervisoryAuthority(Finansinpektionen)disseminatesresearchintheKingdomofSweden.

Generaldisclosures

Thisresearchisforourclientsonly.OtherthandisclosuresrelatingtoGoldmanSachs,thisresearchisbasedoncurrentpublicinformationthatwe

considerreliable,butwedonotrepresentitisaccurateorcomplete,anditshouldnotbereliedonassuch.Theinformation,opinions,estimatesandforecastscontainedhereinareasofthedatehereofandaresubjecttochangewithoutpriornotification.Weseektoupdateourresearchas

_

appropriate,butvariousregulationsmaypreventusfromdoingso.Otherthancertainindustryreportspublishedonaperiodicbasis,thelargemajorityofreportsarepublishedatirregularintervalsasappropriateintheanalyst’sjudgment.

GoldmanSachsconductsaglobalfull-service,integratedinvestmentbanking,investmentmanagement,andbrokeragebusiness.WehaveinvestmentbankingandotherbusinessrelationshipswithasubstantialpercentageofthecompaniescoveredbyGlobalInvestmentResearch.GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC,theUnitedStatesbrokerdealer,isamemberofSIPC().

Oursalespeople,traders,andotherprofessionalsmayprovideoralorwrittenmarketcommentaryortradingstrategiestoourclientsandprincipal

tradingdesksthatreflectopinionsthatarecontrarytotheopinionsexpressedinthisresearch.Ourassetmanagementarea,principaltradingdesksandinvestingbusinessesmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisresearch.

Weandouraffiliates,officers,directors,andemployeeswillfromtimetotimehavelongorshortpositionsin,actasprincipalin,andbuyorsell,thesecuritiesorderivatives,ifany,referredtointhisresearch,unlessotherwiseprohibitedbyregulationorGoldmanSachspolicy.

TheviewsattributedtothirdpartypresentersatGoldmanSachsarrangedconferences,includingindividualsfromotherpartsofGoldmanSachs,donotnecessarilyreflectthoseofGlobalInvestmentResearchandarenotanofficialviewofGoldmanSachs.

Anythirdpartyreferencedherein,includinganysalespeople,tradersandotherprofessionalsormembersoftheirhousehold,mayhavepositionsintheproductsmentionedthatareinconsistentwiththeviewsexpressedbyanalystsnamedinthisreport.

Thisresearchisfocusedoninvestmentthemesacrossmarkets,industriesandsectors.Itdoesnotattempttodistinguishbetweentheprospectsorperformanceof,orprovideanalysisof,individualcompanieswithinanyindustryorsectorwedescribe.

Anytradingrecommendationinthisresearchrelatingtoanequityorcreditsecurityorsecuritieswithinanindustryorsectorisreflectiveoftheinvestmentthemebeingdiscussedandisnotarecommendationofanysuchsecurityinisolation.

Thisresearchisnotanoffertosellorthesolicitationofanoffertobuyanysecurityinanyjurisdictionwheresuchanofferorsolicitationwouldbe

illegal.Itdoesnotconstituteapersonalrecommendationortakeintoaccounttheparticularinvestmentobjectives,financialsituations,orneedsof

individualclients.Clientsshouldconsiderwhetheranyadviceorrecommendationinthisresearchissuitablefortheirparticularcircumstancesand,ifappropriate,seekprofessionaladvice,includingtaxadvice.Thepriceandvalueofinvestmentsreferredtointhisresearchandtheincomefromthemmayfluctuate.Pastperformanceisnotaguidetofutureperformance,futurereturnsarenotguaranteed,andalossoforiginalcapitalmayoccur.

Fluctuationsinexchangeratescouldhaveadverseeffectsonthevalueorpriceof,orincomederivedfrom,certaininvestments.

3July20244

GoldmanSachsChina

Certaintransactions,includingthoseinvolvingfutures,options,andotherderivatives,giverisetosubstantialriskandarenotsuitableforallinvestors.InvestorsshouldreviewcurrentoptionsandfuturesdisclosuredocumentswhichareavailablefromGoldmanSachssalesrepresentativesorat

/about/publications/character-risks.jspand

https://www.fi/fia/regulatory-disclosures_1/fia-uniform-futures-and-options-on-futures-risk-disclosures-booklet-pdf-version-2018.

Transactioncostsmaybesignificantinoptionstrategiescallingformultiplepurchaseandsalesofoptionssuchasspreads.Supportingdocumentationwillbesupplieduponrequest.

DifferingLevelsofServiceprovidedbyGlobalInvestmentResearch:ThelevelandtypesofservicesprovidedtoyoubyGoldmanSachsGlobal

InvestmentResearchmayvaryascomparedtothatprovidedtointernalandotherexternalclientsofGS,dependingonvariousfactorsincludingyourindividualpreferencesastothefrequencyandmannerofreceivingcommunication,yourriskprofileandinvestmentfocusandperspective(e.g.,

marketwide,sectorspecific,longterm,shortterm),thesizeandscopeofyouroverallclientrelationshipwithGS,andlegalandregulatoryconstraints.

Asanexample,certai