2024年亚太地区就业和社会展望

、、©InternationalLabourOrganization2024Firstpublished2024Attribution4.0International(CCBY4.0)ThisworkislicensedundertheCreativeCommonsAttribution4.0International.Toviewacopyofthislicence,pleasevisit/licences/by/4.0/.Theuserisallowedtoreuse,share(copyandredistribute),adapt(remix,transformandbuildupontheoriginalwork)asdetailedinthelicence.TheusermustclearlycredittheILOasthesourceofthematerialandindicateifchangesweremadetotheoriginalcontent.Useoftheemblem,nameandlogooftheILOisnotpermittedinconnectionwithtranslations,adaptationsorotherderivativeworks.Attribution–Theusermustindicateifchangesweremadeandmustcitetheworkasfollows:Asia-pacificEmploymentandsocialOutlook2024:promotingDecentworkAndsocialJusticetoManageAgeingsocieties,Geneva:InternationalLabourO代ce,2024.⑥ILTranslations–Incaseofatranslationofthiswork,thefollowingdisclaimermustbeaddedalongwiththeattribution:ThisisatranslationofacopyrightedworkoftheInternationalLabourOrganization(ILO).Thistranslationhasnotbeenred,reviewedorendorsedbytheILOandshouldnotbeconsiderelresponsibilityforitscontentandaccuracy.Responsibilityrestssolelywiththeauthor(s)ofthetranslation.Adaptations–Incaseofanadaptationofthiswork,thefollowingdisclaimermustbeaddedalongwiththeattribution:ThisisanadaptationofacopyrightedworkoftheInternationalLabourOrganization(ILO).Thisadaptationdisclaimsallresponsibilityforitscontentandaccuracy.Responsibilityrestssolelywiththeauthor(s)oftheadaptation.Third-partymaterials–ThisCreativeCommonslicencedoesnotapplytonon-ILOcopyrightmaterialsincludedinthispublication.Ifthematerialisattributedtoathirdparty,theuserofsuchmaterialissolelyresponsibleforclearingtherightswiththerightsholderandforanyclaimsofinfringement.AnydisputearisingunderthislicencethatcannotbesettledamicablyshallbereferredtoarbitrationinaccordancewiththeArbitrationRulesoftheUnitedNationsCommissiononInternationalTradeLaw(UNCITRAL).Thepartiesshallbeboundbyanyarbitrationawardrenderedasaresultofsucharbitrationasthefinaladjudicationofsuchadispute.QueriesonrightsandlicensingshouldbeaddressedtotheILOPublishingUnit(RightsandLicensing)atrights@ilo.org.InformationonILOpublicationsanddigitalproductscanbefoundat:/publns.ISBN:9789220407806(webPDF);9789220407790(print)DOI:/10.54394/EZFF3499employment/unemployment/labourmarketanalysis/ageingpopulation/labourpolicy/Asia/pacific13.01.3ILOCataloguinginpublicationDataThedesignationsemployedinILOpublicationsanddatabases,whichareinconformitywithUnitedNationspractice,andthepresentationofmaterialthereindonotimplytheexpressionofanyopinionwhatsoeveronthepartoftheILOconcerningthelegalstatusofanycountry,areaorterritoryorofitsauthorities,orconcerningthedelimitationofitsfrontiersorboundaries.Theopinionsandviewsexpressedinthispublicationarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrelecttheopinions,viewsorpoliciesoftheILO.ReferencetonamesoffirmsandcommercialproductsandprocessesdoesnotimplytheirendorsementbytheILO,andanyfailuretomentionaparticularfirm,commercialproductorprocessisnotasignofdisapproval.Coverphoto:©ShutterstockPrintedinThailand、Asia-PacificEmploymentandSocialOutlook2024iiiForseveraldecades,theAsia-pacificregionhasexperiencedthefastestreductionofworkingpovertyandriseoflabourincomesworldwide.Despitethisimpressiveasmajorchallengesremain,andnewonesloomonthehorizon.Progressindimensionssuchasinformality,genderequalityandincomeinequalityistooslow,meaningthatfartoomanyworkersdonotbenefitfromafairshareinthewealthcreatedbytherapideconomictransformation.Inaddition,Asiaandthepacificisthefastestageingregionintheworld,withsomecountriesprojectedtoseeaveryrapidshiftfromrelativelyyoungtoagedsocieties.Addressingthesechallengesismademoredi代cultbythedeterioratingglobaleconomicenvironment,whichisalsosuppressingprojectedeconomicgrowthratesbelowthoseachievedoverthepasttwodecades.ThisAsia-pacificEmploymentandsocialOutlook2024analysesindetailtheexistingandupcomingchallengesfortheregionanditscountries.Furthermore,thetopicofageingreceivesspecialattentioninthisedition’sthematicchapter.ThereportresonateswiththeSingaporeStatementadoptedbyILOconstituentsatthe17thAsiaandthepacificRegionalMeetinginDecember2022.Thisrea代rmsthetripartitecommitmenttoaddressdecentworkdeficitsintheregionasapriority,nationalactionrelatedtolifetransitionsanddemographicshifts.Decentworkandsocialprotectionforall,includingtheold-agepopulation,areanessentialpartofthearchitectureofsocialjustice.TheILOhasestablishedtheGlobalCoalitionforSocialJusticetheaimofwhichistointensifycollectivee仟ortstochampionsocialjusticeandtoacceleratetheimplementationoftheSustainableDevelopmentGoals.Thecoalitionisacallforuniversalhumanrights,equalaccesstoopportunities,afairdistributionofresources,andstrengtheningjusttransitions.TomeettheaimsoftheGlobalCoalition,governments,workersandemployerswillneedtoworktogethertoreinvigorateandstrengthenmeasurestopromotedecentworkandsocialprotection.Suchaction,asthisreportshows,willallowcountriesnotonlytoaddressexistingdecentworkdeficits,butalsotonavigatethechallengesrelatedtoageingsocieties.ChihokoAsada-MiyakawaAssistantDirector-GeneralandRegionalDirectorforAsiaandthepacificInternationalLabourOrganizationiv、Asia-PacificEmploymentandSocialOutlook2024、Forewordiii、Acknowledgementsviii、ExecutivesummaryixIntroductionixLabourmarkettrendsixTrendsandchallengesofageingxiPolicyconsiderationsxii、1.KeylabourmarkettrendsinAsiaandthePacific1Keyfindings11.1Macroeconomicbackground1.2Quantityofemployment41.3Lackofaccesstoemployment81.4Qualityofemployment121.5Labourproductivityandlabourincome171.6Riskstotheoutlook21、2.Populationageing:trendsandchallengesinAsiaandthePacific22Keyfindings222.1Introduction232.2Trends242.3Challengesassociatedwithanageingpopulation31、3.Policyimplications523.1Promotingfullandproductiveemploymentanddecentworkforall533.2Achievingredistributionforadequateold-ageincomes563.3Nationalpoliciestoaddressthechallengesofageing57、References60、AppendixA:ListofcountriesandeconomiesinAsiaandthePacificby66subregionandincomegroup、AppendixB:Long-termtrendsandprojectionsoflabourforceparticipation67rate,labourforceandpopulation,AsiaandthePacificandsubregions、Asia-PacificEmploymentandSocialOutlook2024vFigure1.1.RealGDPgrowth,1990–2025,AsiaandthePacificandsubregions(percent)2Figure1.2.Exportsofgoodsandservices,annualgrowth,2000–19and2024(percent)3Figure1.3.GrossgovernmentdebtasshareofGDP,2010–19and2024(percent)3Figure1.4.Employment-to-populationratioandlabourforceparticipationrate,1991–2026,5AsiaandthePacific(percent)Figure1.5.Labourforceparticipationratebysex,intheAsia-Pacificregion6andsubregions,1993and2023(percent)Figure1.6.LFPRinselecteddemographicgroups,andpopulationaged156to64yearsasshareoftotal(15+)population,change1993–2023(percentagepoints)Figure1.7.Meanweeklyhoursworkedperpersonemployed,2005–24,AsiaandthePacific,7bysubregionFigure1.8.Meanweeklyhoursworkedperworker,bysex,20238Figure1.9.Youthpopulationinemployment,ineducationortraining,ornotineither,10bysex,2023,AsiaandthePacific(percentandmillions)Figure1.10.Shareofyouthnotinemployment,educationortraining,2023,bysex(percent)11Figure1.11.Jobsgapanditscomponents,bysex,2023,AsiaandthePacific(millions)11Figure1.12.Informality,workingpoverty,own-accountandcontributingfamilywork,13agriculturalandelementaryoccupationsasashareoftotalemploymentinAsiaandthePacific,Figure1.13.Shareofformalemploymentandpopulationcoveredbysocialprotection,15AsiaandthePacific,2023(ormostrecentavailableyear)(percent)Figure1.14.Indexofdissimilarityofemploymentbetweenmenandwomenbyeconomic17activity,2021Figure1.15.Labourincomeperworker,2004and2021(US$thousandsPPP)18Figure1.16.AverageannualgrowthofGDPperworker,anddecompositioninto18growthoflabourincomeandexcessgrowthofcapitalincome,2004–21(percent)Figure1.17.AnnualgrowthofGDPperworkerandcontributionofwithin-sectorproductivity20growthandstructuraltransformation,1992–2022(percent)Figure2.1.Old-agedependencyratio,2023and2050,byincomegroup24Figure2.2.Old-agedependencyratio,2023and2050,countriesandsubregionsin25AsiaandthePacificFigure2.3.Labourforceparticipationratesoverthelifecourse,bysexandcountry26incomegroupinAsiaandthePacific,averagesince2016(percent)Figure2.4.Labourforceparticipationratetrendsandprojections,Asiaandthepacific,28bysexandage(percent)vi、Asia-PacificEmploymentandSocialOutlook2024Figure2.5.projectedchangeinlabourforceparticipationratefrom2023to2050,bysex,30ageandsubregion(percentagepoints)Figure2.6.Economicdependencyratio(aged15yearsandover),2023and205031Figure2.7.ContributionstoaverageannualgrowthofGDPpercapita,AsiaandthePacificand32subregions,2000–23and2023–50(percentagepoints)Figure2.8.Annuallabourproductivitygrowthrequiredtoachievehigh-income34statusby2050,averagelabourproductivitygrowth2013–23,anddemographiccontribution,bycountryinAsiaandthePacific(percent)Figure2.9.Valueaddedperworkerrelativetodevelopedeconomiesinrestoftheworld,36bycountryincomegroupandeconomicactivity,2022(percent)Figure2.10.Long-termcareneedinoldage(60+),andnumberofworkerstomeetthatneed,392023and2050Figure2.11.Ratiooflong-termcareworkerstorequiredlong-termcareworkers,mostrecent39availableyear,23countriesinAsiaandthePacificwithavailabledata(percent)Figure2.12.Differenceinincidenceofemploymenttypesofolderworkersrelativetothose43aged25–54,bysexandage,AsiaandthePacific,mostrecentavailableyear(percentagepoints)Figure2.13.Averagechangeinincidenceofemploymenttypeforthecohortaged65years44andabove,latestyearavailablerelativeto10yearsearlier,countriesinAsiaandthePacific(percentagepoints)Figure2.14.Publicsocialprotectionexpenditureforolderpersons(percentageofGDP)47andSustainableDevelopmentGoalindicator1.3.1oneffectivecoverageforold-ageprotection:Percentageofpersonsabovestatutoryretirementagereceivinganold-agepension,inAsiaandthePacific,2020orlatestavailableyearFigure2.15.Shareofworkerswithlabourincomebelowhalftheaveragewage,2019,50percentilesacrosscountries,byregion(percent)Figure3.1.Pillarstoboostproductivitygrowth55Box1.1.LabourmarketintheSriLankaneconomiccrisis4Box2.1.projectinglabourforceparticipationrates27Box2.2.ShiftingpopulationweightswithinandbetweencountriesimpactaggregateLFPRs28Box2.3.Estimatinglong-termcareneedsandprofessionallong-termcareworkersrequired38Box2.4.EldercareinThailand40Box2.5.Thecircularflow:equalityofearnedincomes,consumptionandproduction49、Asia-PacificEmploymentandSocialOutlook2024viiTable1.1.Unemploymentratesandunemploymentnumbers,bysexandage,2000–25,9AsiaandthePacificandsubregionsTable1.2.Extremeworkingpoverty,informality,own-accountworkandcontributingfamily14work,bysexandage,AsiaandthePacificandsubregions,2023(ormostrecentavailableyear)Table3.1.Examplesofpoliciesandstrategiestoaddressthechallengesofageingin58countriesinAsiaandthePacificTableB1.AsiaandthePacific67TableB2.EastAsia67TableB3.South-EastAsia68TableB4.SouthAsia68TableB5.Pacific69viii、Asia-PacificEmploymentandSocialOutlook2024ThisreportisanoutputoftheRegionalEconomicandSocialAnalysisUnitoftheInternationalLabourOrganization’sRegional。代ceforAsiaandthepacific,ledbyThisreportisanoutputoftheRegionalEconomicandSocialAnalysisUnitoftheInternationalLabourOrganization’sRegional。代ceforAsiaandthepacific,ledbykenChamuvaShawa.TheprincipalauthorofthereportisStefanKühn,underguidanceofKenChamuvaShawa.RebeccaNapier-MooreandJennaHolidayauthoredtheboxoncareworkinThailand.ChristinaBehrendtandcolleaguesfromtheILOdepartmentofsocialprotectionprovidedmajorinputandfeedbackonthetopicofold-agesocialprotection.Thefoundationofthereportislabourmarketinformation.TheILOmodelledestimatespresentedinthisreportwereproducedbytheDataProductionandAnalysisUnit,ledbyStevenKapsos,intheILODepartmentofStatisticsandbytheMacro-economicPoliciesandJobsUnitoftheILOResearchDepartment.TheauthorsespeciallyacknowledgethemodellingworkcarriedoutbyEvangeliaBourmpoula,PalomaCarrillo,RogerGomis,stefankuhn,AvichalMahajanandMiguelSanchezMartinez.TheunderlyingdatabaseofinternationallabourmarketindicatorsusedtoproducetheestimatesTheteamwishestoacknowledgethehelpfulcommentsandsuggestionsonthedraftprovidedbyAndréPicard,ChristianViegelahn,ChristinaBehrendt,DanielSamaan,EkkehardErnst,HelmutSchwarzer,KieranWalsh,MiguelSanchezMartinez,RogerGomis,SaraElderandStevenKapsos.ThereportalsobenefitedfromvaluablefeedbackbythefollowingregionaltechnicalspecialistsKenichiHirose,MariellePheGoursat,PhuHuynh,SimonBrimblecomb,TiteHabiyakareandXavierGonzaloEstupiñan.SarahWhitehouseeditedthereport,andNattawarathHengviriyapanichorganizedthegraphicdesignandlayout.HatairatThongprapaiprovidedadministrativesupportthroughouttheprocess.Finally,weextendourthankstocolleaguesintheRegionalDepartmentofCommunicationandPublicInformationfortheircollaborationandsupportinthedisseminationofthereport.、Asia-PacificEmploymentandSocialOutlook2024ixIntroductionTheregion’semployment-to-populationratioisinlong-termdecline,projectedtocontinueTheAsia-Pacificregionfacesenormousoverthecomingyears,fallingfrom58.2perexistingandemergingchallengesforlabourcentin2023to57.4percentin2026.Equally,marketsandsocialjustice.Despitestrongthelabourforceparticipationrateisprojectedeconomicgrowthandsteadyimprovementsintofallby0.8percentagepointsbetween2023somekeylabourmarketindicatorsoverseveraland2026,from60.9percentto60.1percent.decades,progressinseveralcrucialdimensionsTheincreaseinpersonsaged65yearsandofdecentworkistooslow,withlargegapsaboveasashareofthetotalpopulation,aswellpersisting.Inaddition,theregionisprojectedasadecliningyouthparticipationratearethetohaveoneoftheworld’smostrapidlyageingmaincausesofthelong-termdownwardtrendpopulations.Implementingpoliciesthataddressinaggregateparticipationrates.Inabsolutedecentworkdeficitswillnotonlyalleviatenumbers,theregion’stotalemploymentofexistingchallengesbutwillalsorenderupcomingaround2billionisprojectedtoincreasebychallengesfromageingmoremanageable.around15millionperyearowingtogrowthintheworkingagepopulation.Thelabourforcereducedonlymarginallyoverthepastthreedecades.Women’slabourforceparticipationand2019and2023,whichloweredtheregionalgendergapandpushedtheaggregateregionalRealreducedonlymarginallyoverthepastthreedecades.Women’slabourforceparticipationand2019and2023,whichloweredtheregionalgendergapandpushedtheaggregateregional4.4percentin2024,morethan1percentagepointbelowits2000–19averageandisprojectedtofallto4.2percentin2025.employmentrosesignificantlyinIndiabetweenTheslowdownineconomicgrowthhasbeenwhilesouthAsiaisprojectedtomatchpastparticularlystronginEastAsiaandinthepaciwhilesouthAsiaisprojectedtomatchpastgrowthperformance.DrivenbyfallinglabourTheregion’sunemploymentrateisprojectedproductivitygrowth,thisslowdownalsoreducedtoremainroughlyunchangedin2024andgrowthinlabourincomes.Intheshortterm,2025,at4.2percent,whichcorrespondstogrowthprospectsarerestrainedbylowergrowth87.8millionunemployedin2024.Whiletheofinternationaltrade(averyimportantfactorinunemploymentrateremainsbelowthe2019aregionfocusingheavilyonexport-ledgrowth),levelfortheregionasawhole,thereissignificantcontinuedtightmonetarypolicyindevelopedvariationbetweensubregionsandcountries.economiesand,insomecountries,limitedfiscalComparedwith2019,unemploymentratesinspaceowingtohighdebtlevelsanddebtservicingEastAsiaareup,butaredownbymorethancosts.StateswillneedtorevitalizeproductivityapercentagepointinsouthAsia.projectedgrowthtotacklepoverty,boostlabourincomeunemploymenttrendsforwomenandmenandpreparetomeetthechallengesofanageingaresimilar,andAsiaandthepacificstandsaspopulation.Theexperiencesofsomecountriestheonlyregionintheworldwherewomen’sshowthattheregionshould,broadly,beabletounemploymentrateislowerthanthatofachievethis.men.Incontrasttoadults,theregion’syouthunemploymentratehashardlyfallenbelowits2019level,inatrenddrivenstronglybythex、Asia-PacificEmploymentandSocialOutlook2024significantriseinyouthunemploymentinEastAsia.Theyouthunemploymentrateisnowmorethanthreetimestheadultrate,at13.7percentin2024.Theregion’sjobsgap,whichshowsthetotalunmetneedforemployment,amountedto164millionin2023.Thejobsgapencompassestheunemployedandafurther76millionpeoplewhowantemploymentbutarenotconsideredeconomicallyactive.Theirabsencefromactiveparticipationinthelabourmarket,whichmightarisefromdiscouragementorlackofavailabilitytowork,owingtocareobligations,meansthattheyplacelessimmediatepressureonthelabourmarketthantheunemployed.In2023,thejobsgapratestoodat9.4percentforwomenversus6.9percentformen,showingthatthepercentageofwomenwhoarenotinemploymentbutwouldliketobeishigherthanthatofmen.Youngwomenintheregionareparticularlyaffectedbynotbeinginemployment,educationortraining(NEET),comparedtoyoungwomenintherestoftheworldandtoyoungmenintheregion.Morethan100millionyoungwomenaged15to24yearsareNEET,whichcorrespondsto32.1percent.Thisisaround2.5percentagepointsabovetheglobalaverage.Incontrast,only12.2percentofyoungmenintheregionareNEET,whichisaround2percentagepointsbelowtheglobalaverage.TheNEETratehasreducedby4percentagepointssince2005owingtoanotableincreaseineducationalenrolment.Interestingly,theshareofyoungpeopleineducationortrainingwhilenotbeinginemploymentwasquitesimilarforwomenandmenin2023,at43percentand47percent,respectively.Whiletheregionhasachievedgreatsuccessinreducingworkingpovertyoverthepastthreedecades,otherindicatorsrelatedtoqualityofworkshowmuchlessprogress,orevenstagnation.Twointhreeworkerswereininformalemploymentin2023,animprovementofonly2percentagepointsoverthecourseof10years.Theproportionofown-accountandcontributingfamilywork,whichisfrequentlyassociatedwithlowqualityactivitiesandlowpay,hasremainedessentiallyunchangedat42percentoverthepastdecade.Onarelatednote,only44percentofthepopulationwascoveredbyatleastoneformofsocialprotection.Trendsingendergapsinrelationtoindicatorsofqualityofworkdi仟eracrosssubregionsandindicators.InSouthAsia,womenfacehigherratesofworkingpoverty,informalityandown-accountandcontributingfamilyworkthaninothersubregions,whilemenfacehigherratesofinformalityinEastAsiaandaremuchmorelikelytobeinagriculturalorelementaryoccupationsinSouth-EastAsia.Persistentgendergapsregardingpayandemployment,however,highlightthedisadvantagedpositionofwomeninlabourmarkets.Owingtostrongaverageannuallabourproductivitygrowth(4.3percent)between2004and2021,labourincomeperworkerhasdoubledfromUS$7,700peryearinpurchasingpowerparity(PPP)termstoUS$15,700(PPP)between2004and2021.Yet,labourincomegrowthintheregioncouldhavebeenhigherhaditnotfallenasashareofnationalincome.LabourincomeshavegrownmostinEastAsia.TheyarelowestinSouthAsiaandhighestinthepacific,althoughincomefiguresinthepacificaredominatedbyAustraliaandNewZealand.Labourproductivitygrowthintheregionfellfrom4.8percentinthedecade2002–12to3.7percentperyearinthedecade2012–22.Theregionseemstobeexperiencingdiminishingbenefitsfromstructuraltransformationtowardseconomicactivitiesgeneratinghighervalueadded.Thelackofjobopportunitiesthatmeetdecentworkcriteria,includinggoodincomes,notonlyjeopardizessocialjusticeintheregion,butitalsopresentsariskfactorforthelabourmarketoutlook.Theregionfacesadditionalriskstoitslabourmarketoutlookfrom,amongothers,tradedisruptionsduetogeopolitical、Asia-PacificEmploymentandSocialOutlook2024xitensions,andlimitedfiscalspaceorevenfiscalcrisisamidhighdebtservicingcosts,drivenbyhighdebtandhighinterestrates.Risingincomeswouldreinforcedomesticdemandformoresophisticatedproductsandservices,leadingtoavirtuouscycleoftechnologicalupgrading,risingproductivityandrisingincomes.Tacklinginformalityandimprovingopportunitiesforinvestment,notonlyincapitalbutalsoinpeople,isthereforeparamounttoimprovetheoutlookandlowerthreatstoit.TherateofpopulationageinginAsiaandthepacificisalarming.Theregion,spopulationisprojectedtoageasmuchoverthenext27yearsasthepopulationsinhigh-incomecountriesintherestoftheworldhaveagedoverthepast60.Theratioofpopulationaged65yearsandaboveto15–64yearsisprojectedtodoubleintheregionfrom0.15in2023to0.31in2050.Atotalof19countriesareprojectedtoexperienceage-dependencyratiosabove0.29by2050,whichisequaltothatrecordedinhigh-incomecountriesintherestoftheworldin2023.ThehighestratiosareexpectedinJapanandtheRepublicofKorea,withthelargestincreasesexpectedintheRepublicofKorea,SingaporeandThailand.Theeconomicdependencyratio,definedastheratioofthosenotemployedtothoseemployedamongtheregion’sworking-agepopulation(aged15yearsandabove),isprojectedtorisefrom0.72in2023to0.90in2050.Thismeansthateachworkerwillneedtoproducemoretomaintaintheaveragestandardoflivingperheadintheworkingagepopulation.Thedependencyratioispredictedtorisebecauseofaprojecteddeclineoftheregion,saggregatelabourforceparticipationratefrom60.9percentin2023to54.9percentin2050.Thisfallisdrivenmainlybyagrowingproportionofolderpeople,whotendtohavemuchlowerlabourforceparticipationrates.Despiteageingpopulations,theregionshouldbeabletoachievecontinuedgrowthofincomepercapitaoverthecomingdecadesifstrongproductivitygrowthcanbemaintained.AveragegrowthofGDPperworkerintheregionbetween2000and2023was10timesgreaterthantheprojectedlossofgrowthofGDPpercapitaduetotherisingdependencyratioofadults.Nevertheless,onlythreeoftheemerginganddevelopingeconomiesintheregionareontracktoachievehigh