汽车制造行业国内外发展概述及发展中存在的问题分析

汽车制造行业国内外发展概述及发展中存在的问题分析

一、全球汽车制造行业发展概况

近年来，从整体上看，全球汽车产量保持稳步增长，2002年全球汽车产量为58994318辆，2015年全球汽车产量增长至90780583辆，2017年全球汽车产量为9730.25万辆。2002-2017年全球汽车产量走势图资料来源：OICA

随着全球汽车工业的发展，汽车产业是世界上规模最大的产业之一，并成为美国、日本、德国等发达国家国民经济的支柱产业，对工业结构升级和相关产业发展有很强的带动作用。2010年汽车销量增长最快，达到14%，2016年受到全球经济低迷的影响，汽车销量仍保持低速增长，2016年，汽车销量同比增长4.7%。2017年全球汽车销量增速下降至3.09%。2005-2017年全球汽车销量走势图资料来源：OICA

二、主要国家和地区发展状况

中国已经成为全球最大的汽车市场，也成为了最大的汽车制造国。而近两年开始，中国传统汽车产业正在发生变化，新的产业形态、商业模式、消费习惯正在形成，创新与变革将由此开始。

中国的新能源汽车政策为传统汽车产业提供了弯道超车的机会。现阶段，中国已经具备了一套良好的适合新能源汽车产业发展的生态系统。首先是政府和政策支持与主导，具备了良好的产业生存环境；二是各大车企已经积极参与进来，具备了发展的主体。三是各路资本的涌入，为产业提供了强力的资金支持；四是一大批新造车者的进入，以及一大批供应链企业的跟进，产业链的完善。2010-2017年全球汽车产量分国家统计（单位：辆）国家2010年2011年2012年2013年2014年2015年2016年2017年总计77,703,98780,045,07584,100,16787,249,84589,747,43090,780,58394,976,56997,302,534阿根廷716,540828,771764,495791,007617,329533,683472,776472,158澳大利亚244,007224,193209,730215,926180,311173,009161,29498,632奥地利104,997152,505142,662171,220154,340125,500108,00099,880比利时555,302595,084541,874480,164516,832409,340399,427379,140巴西3,381,7283,407,8613,342,6173,740,4183,146,1182,429,4632,156,3562,699,672加拿大2,068,1892,135,1212,463,7322,379,8062,393,8902,283,4742,370,2712,199,789中国18,264,76118,418,87619,271,80822,116,82523,722,89024,503,32628,118,79429,015,434捷克1,076,3841,199,8451,178,9381,132,9311,251,2201,303,6031,349,8961,419,993埃及116,68381,73156,48039,05027,02036,00036,23036,640芬兰6,6652,6312,9003,33045,03569,05355,28091,598法国2,229,4212,242,9281,967,7651,740,0001,817,0001,970,0002,082,0002,227,000德国5,905,9856,311,1035,649,2695,718,2225,907,5486,033,1646,062,5625,645,581匈牙利211,461213,531217,840222,400227,030495,370472,000505,400印度3,557,0733,927,4114,145,1943,880,9383,840,1604,125,7444,488,9654,782,896印度尼西亚702,508838,3881,065,5571,208,2111,298,5231,098,7801,177,3891,216,615伊朗1,599,4541,649,3111,013,561626,1101,090,846982,3371,164,7101,515,396意大利838,186790,348671,768658,207697,8641,014,2231,103,5161,142,210日本9,628,9208,398,6309,942,7119,630,0709,774,5589,278,2389,204,5909,693,746马来西亚567,715533,695569,620596,170596,600614,671513,445460,140墨西哥2,342,2822,681,0503,001,9743,052,3953,365,3063,565,4693,597,4624,068,415荷兰94,13273,15150,862029,80744,12244,430157,280波兰869,474838,133647,803583,258593,904660,603681,837689,729葡萄牙158,729192,242163,561154,016161,509156,626143,096175,544罗马尼亚350,912335,232337,765410,997391,422387,177359,306359,250俄国1,403,2441,990,1552,231,7372,175,3111,886,6461,384,3991,303,9891,551,293塞尔维亚18,03311,02311,03210,90510,67583,63080,32079,912斯洛伐克561,933639,763900,000975,000993,0001,000,0011,040,0001,001,520斯洛文尼亚211,340174,119130,94993,734118,591133,092133,702189,852南非472,049532,545539,424545,913566,083615,658599,004589,951韩国4,271,7414,657,0944,561,7664,521,4294,524,9324,555,9574,228,5094,114,913西班牙2,387,9002,373,3291,979,1792,163,3382,402,9782,733,2012,885,9222,848,335瑞典217,084188,969162,814161,080154,173188,987205,374226,000台湾303,456343,296339,038338,720379,223351,085309,531291,563泰国1,644,5131,457,7982,429,1422,532,5771,880,0071,915,4201,944,4171,988,823土耳其1,094,5571,189,1311,072,3391,125,5341,170,4451,358,7961,485,9271,695,731乌克兰83,133104,65476,28150,44928,7518,2445,2649,542英国1,393,4631,463,9991,576,9451,597,4331,598,8791,682,1561,816,6221,749,385美国7,762,5448,661,53510,328,88411,045,90211,660,69912,100,09512,198,13711,189,985乌兹别克斯坦222,022179,560164,180154,760245,660185,40088,152140,247其他495,020495,147594,457602,138662,085832,683920,162758,672资料来源：OICA2010-2017年全球汽车销量分国家统计（单位：辆）-20102011201220132014201520162017欧洲18,808,68819,740,01918,663,17818,343,40918,587,65019,035,98920,134,82920,916,025欧盟28国+欧洲自由贸易联盟15,665,09015,664,43714,358,33114,136,04114,995,36116,454,28117,568,44918,147,636欧盟15国+欧洲自由贸易联盟14,696,72014,683,81613,419,91413,191,33113,913,18915,223,76616,145,22016,563,830奥地利362,564396,655374,829357,892342,215349,597374,545403,580比利时607,497643,511550,519547,139545,255571,524617,854634,111丹麦173,566198,518199,147210,839221,713245,484265,386263,361芬兰126,396144,425126,505117,368120,113123,483136,430138,375法国2,708,8842,687,0522,331,7312,207,3732,210,9272,345,0922,478,4722,604,942德国3,198,4163,508,4543,394,0023,257,7183,356,7183,539,8253,708,8673,811,246希腊153,842104,68262,51862,57076,66582,04485,00895,363冰岛3,3955,4718,5078,02210,63015,60520,73524,059爱尔兰99,986102,44391,72887,096114,985150,680177,719159,236意大利2,164,1531,942,9491,545,7641,420,8141,493,0081,726,0792,050,2922,190,403卢森堡53,99355,01555,04950,88654,32251,60756,36958,965荷兰542,312627,757571,803481,435450,330521,178469,410508,371挪威162,354180,313176,909180,042180,273190,106197,991201,895葡萄牙272,754191,362113,435126,689172,357213,654247,343264,904西班牙1,114,119931,404790,991822,9501,029,7821,277,0591,347,3441,451,089瑞典334,134359,066326,441313,067352,467396,693431,818442,835瑞士（+FL）324,779355,256366,273343,718338,404362,650355,882355,910英国2,293,5762,249,4832,333,7632,595,7132,843,0253,061,4063,123,7552,955,182欧洲新成员968,370980,621938,417944,7101,082,1721,230,5151,423,2291,583,807保加利亚20,08223,52922,77022,96624,33128,05331,26037,347克罗地亚42,03145,93535,65433,81940,19643,66853,92960,795塞浦路斯17,92015,95811,5638,0519,44711,83414,55915,078捷克186,648194,945193,795185,939215,594260,070291,008302,109爱沙尼亚12,20320,34623,07323,38324,84524,92127,40130,420匈牙利55,22160,99368,16872,97588,719100,933123,807141,814拉脱维亚10,36917,92914,49714,48016,26117,76420,34520,712立陶宛7,53414,31216,66917,58619,03923,24929,38036,180马耳他5,0047,0306,4756,3127,0347,9298,1578,586波兰366,577338,781329,799353,197392,476432,439504,550576,144罗马尼亚104,09095,50880,72371,016100,336120,591142,020159,808斯洛伐克73,82077,90478,18975,20481,96090,091100,600108,672斯洛文尼亚66,87167,45157,04259,78261,93468,97376,21386,142俄罗斯，土耳其和其他欧洲3,143,5984,075,5824,304,8474,207,3683,592,2892,581,7082,566,3802,768,389阿尔巴尼亚1,8002,2602,5002,4902,7502,7502,7503,365亚美尼亚4,4004,4005,4005,3905,6002,5002,7002,977白俄罗斯19,00020,00024,50024,00025,80025,80022,50025,978波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那11,00011,00010,74010,5209,5009,30010,20013,347GEORGIA5,0004,0005,3005,3005,5004,2004,3004,556马其顿9,5009,4005,6502,8003,5003,9004,3003,863摩尔多瓦5,2005,9005,3005,4006,0003,8004,5006,022俄国2,107,1352,901,6123,141,5512,998,6502,592,3961,440,9231,404,4641,602,270塞尔维亚31,24225,32126,70026,80027,80025,00027,60030,924火鸡760,913864,439817,620893,124807,4861,011,1941,007,857980,394乌克兰188,408227,250259,586232,894105,95752,34175,20994,694美国19,719,98121,578,03923,670,89325,030,00525,475,53125,688,15925,551,91225,788,942北美自由贸易协定14,203,96115,597,61417,526,68818,764,50819,910,15621,174,61521,497,24121,231,606加拿大1,583,3881,620,2211,716,1781,780,5231,890,3871,939,5171,983,7452,077,000墨西哥848,354936,7801,024,5741,100,5421,176,3051,389,4741,647,7231,570,764美国11,772,21913,040,61314,785,93615,883,44316,843,46417,845,62417,865,77317,583,842中美洲和南美洲5,516,0205,980,4256,144,2056,265,4975,565,3754,513,5444,054,6714,557,336阿根廷698,404883,350830,058963,917613,848644,021709,482900,403巴哈马3,2003,0003,5002,8002,5003,5003,3002,273伯利兹2503004004104008009001,165玻利维亚11,00014,00021,00022,40030,90021,40027,80029,179巴西3,515,0643,633,2483,802,0713,767,3703,498,0122,568,9762,050,3212,238,915智利303,360356,183362,331397,643353,525297,785319,606376,682哥伦比亚285,000295,000285,000286,800314,100272,400246,500233,960哥斯达黎加24,00034,00036,00036,20042,10052,80060,00051,884古巴2,4003,5004,5004,5304,5004,5006,9006,962多明尼加共和国10,05620,03115,37316,48117,43621,48924,02419,210厄瓜多尔132,172139,893121,446113,812120,06081,30963,555118,281萨尔瓦多7,0008,00011,00011,40011,80012,40010,60010,182瓜德罗普16,00916,36415,45214,71614,77315,72016,57118,738危地马拉22,10024,00026,00027,90029,80031,20029,90028,250洪都拉斯9,00010,00011,00012,00011,60011,30010,2007,771牙买加3,0003,5004,5004,7005,0005,9005,1004,812马提尼克岛15,28615,32513,57613,01813,35115,21516,49516,963尼加拉瓜6,0006,0008,0009,3009,40011,20012,7009,108巴拿马38,00044,00048,00048,30052,20056,30057,70049,762巴拉圭19,00030,00030,00030,60031,00028,20022,70027,029秘鲁120,800150,037190,761201,326187,081173,388169,718180,020特立尼达和多巴哥14,00014,00014,50014,90016,00019,60020,20015,053乌拉圭55,00054,96956,45961,05456,54851,31847,11461,484委内瑞拉125,202120,689130,55398,87823,70714,7005,20014,084亚洲/大洋洲/中东35,179,08435,392,38638,212,92840,567,30642,544,51843,405,63946,903,73048,903,658澳大利亚1,035,5741,008,4371,112,0321,136,2271,113,2301,155,4081,178,1331,188,677阿塞拜疆13,70010,85015,00022,70025,20010,5005,1002,705巴林35,00031,00047,00053,00061,10058,30046,30037,482孟加拉国40,40039,90043,40042,50051,90054,80044,40042,021文莱10,50017,00020,00019,60024,00017,00016,20016,839柬埔寨2,9003,4003,4003,4004,1006,1006,3006,042中国18,061,93618,505,11419,306,43521,984,07923,499,00124,661,60228,028,17529,122,531香港36,68840,28441,23345,72049,72253,53543,80048,259印度3,040,3903,287,7373,595,5083,241,3023,177,0053,424,8363,669,2774,017,539印度尼西亚764,710894,1641,116,2301,229,8111,195,4091,031,4221,048,1351,060,894伊拉克165,000131,500120,000117,50087,70049,20024,80039,291伊朗1,642,8431,688,1941,044,430804,7501,287,6001,222,0001,448,5001,718,565以色列217,000227,000206,500215,500242,400260,200292,700284,623日本4,956,1484,210,2245,369,7215,375,5135,562,8885,046,5104,970,2605,238,888约旦20,00022,00023,00029,00023,80022,80020,50020,918哈萨克斯坦29,00043,34898,231165,710163,56197,46997,47097,471吉尔吉斯斯坦4,8005,9004,8004,8004,8004,8002,0002,735科威特110,000114,500140,000151,500152,300143,800108,000102,541老挝5,0005,0007,0009,00014,70014,60010,9009,785黎巴嫩35,50033,50037,50037,50040,30040,70037,80038,363马来西亚605,156600,123627,753655,793666,487666,677580,124591,096蒙古3,3003,2902,2902,2001,6001,0001,7001,655缅甸2,8002,8003,1003,0001,8001,8002,3003,344尼泊尔2,0004,0005,6005,5008,3005,9009,3003,670新西兰83,25084,143100,795113,294126,508134,041146,753159,872阿曼178,000169,500204,500215,000208,400167,600154,900131,149巴基斯坦152,354163,260157,656141,778146,882229,688211,295269,049巴勒斯坦21,90024,70036,60035,80035,80035,80035,80036,454菲律宾170,348165,056184,248211,959234,747288,609359,572358,558卡塔尔55,50061,00080,00085,00092,90086,40063,70049,767沙特阿拉伯600,000590,000705,000740,000828,200830,100655,500548,250新加坡51,89139,57037,24734,11144,77676,191108,061110,907韩国1,511,3731,586,4051,532,0871,543,5641,661,8681,833,7861,823,0411,798,796斯里兰卡3,0008,0009,50012,00015,50017,00034,90016,006叙利亚87,54739,96044,00043,10039,70039,70039,70040,034塔吉克斯坦6,7007,7106,3006,2906,4006,4002,3002,316台湾252,500285,790270,078258,753282,130262,593262,346259,013泰国800,357794,0811,423,5801,330,672881,832799,632768,788873,506土库曼斯坦4,7005,2004,7004,7004,8004,8005,0005,016阿拉伯联合酋长国168,323243,982268,900263,100263,100256,700198,500194,382乌兹别克斯坦56,50062,00057,00057,50058,10058,10056,30058,968越南112,224110,93880,48796,692134,562208,566271,833269,570也门4,0004,0004,1004,0004,6005,6003,6004,950非洲1,251,2211,446,9271,569,4631,653,5871,717,9211,577,5351,315,1631,195,765阿尔及利亚133,406227,925255,167304,854292,100243,37999,60094,408安哥拉30,00015,00028,00029,00035,70018,0007,3004,230博茨瓦纳6,0006,2006,6006,9007,4007,5008,1007,600布隆迪600500510530400400900130喀麦隆2,9002,9003,4004,4004,4004,2004,2003,765埃及248,917271,900286,300283,000349,100332,100264,100181,001加蓬4,0004,0005,5005,5004,9003,3003,0002,565加纳6,0009,00014,50013,60013,0004,8007,4004,217象牙海岸5,5005,5007,5006,0006,4007,1006,4007,118肯尼亚6,0006,0009,50013,00013,50014,10010,60011,886利比里亚500400410430400400600132利比亚54,50056,50029,00045,00045,00054,10046,40023,600马达加斯加1,8002,1002,2002,2002,6002,3001,4001,507马拉维2,2002,3001,5001,5401,7001,9001,8001,937毛里求斯6,0004,5009,50010,20010,60010,00011,00012,597摩洛哥103,436112,093130,306120,755122,060131,910163,110168,913尼日利亚37,00045,00050,00052,00053,90020,00023,0006,999团圆24,75526,26824,94924,23325,75727,69729,54731,039塞内加尔6,0005,5006,0006,0006,8005,8006,6006,516南非492,907572,241623,921650,745644,504617,749547,406555,716北苏丹3,5003,8003,5002,5003,0003,6003,4002,955坦桑尼亚3,2004,5006,0006,7005,8005,2004,5005,358突尼斯59,00047,50049,00047,00050,90048,50050,80047,359乌干达3,5004,0004,5005,0004,9003,1004,0004,337赞比亚3,0003,0003,5004,0004,0003,4003,2004,862津巴布韦3,0004,3004,4005,0005,8002,5002,2002,143所有国家74,958,97478,157,37182,116,46285,594,30788,325,62089,707,32293,905,63496,804,390资料来源：OICA

三、中国汽车制造行业发展概况

2018年，中国汽车市场首次出现产量下滑，中国汽车市场显露“疲态”。汽车产业迁移路径可分为两大阶段。通过对比2009年、2017年和2018年三个时间点探索中国汽车产业迁移路径发现，中国汽车制造产业迁移路径主要分为两个阶段：第一阶段（2009-2017年）：中部向吉林地区转移，吉林从2009年排名第六攀升到排名第三，东部向广东、上海转移，广东从2009年排名第5攀升到排名第一，上海地区始终保持第二。阶段二（2017-2018年）：中部向湖北地区集中，湖北产量超过了重庆等地，西部向广西地区集中。

根据国家统计局公布数据显示，2018年全国民用汽车保有量23122万辆，比上年末增长10.60%，其中私人汽车保有量20730万辆，增长11.96%。2007-2018年我国汽车保有量资料来源：国家统计局

近年来，我国汽车保有量占全球比重呈上升趋势，截止2018年，中国汽车年销量已连续10年世界第一，目前我国汽车保有量2.31亿辆，保有量占全球20%，销量占全球30%。

2018年，我国汽车保有量达2.31亿辆，汽车保有量与2017年相比，2018年全年增加2215.33万辆，增长10.60%。汽车占机动车的比率持续提高，近五年占比从54.93%提高至70.17%，已成为机动车构成主体。2018年，我国汽车产销呈小幅增长，全年共产销2780.92万辆和2808.06万辆汽车，同比缩减4.16%和2.76%。

根据中汽协数据显示，2018年，我国汽车产销量同比呈现负增长。2018年，我国乘用车产销2352.94万辆和2370.98万辆，同比缩减5.15%和4.08%；商用车产销427.98万辆和437.08万辆，同比增长1.69%和5.05%。

2018年，我国汽车产销呈小幅增长，全年共产销2780.92万辆和2808.06万辆汽车，分别下降4.16%和2.76%。12月，汽车产销分别完成248.2万辆和266.1万辆，同比分别下降18.4%和13%。2007-2018年我国汽车产销量情况资料来源：汽车工业协会

1、新能源汽车发展取得重大进展

2018年，新能源汽车产销分别完成127万辆和125.6万辆，同比分别增长59.9%和61.7%。其中，纯电动汽车产销分别完成98.6万辆和98.4万辆，同比分别增长47.9%和50.8%；插电式混合动力汽车产销分别为28.3万辆和27.1万辆，同比分别增长122%和118%；燃料电池汽车产销均完成1527辆。12月，新能源汽车产销分别完成21.4万辆和22.5万辆，同比分别增长43.4%和38.2%。其中，纯电动汽车产销分别完成17.7万辆和19.2万辆，同比分别增长37.2%和33.5%；插电式混合动力汽车产销分别完成3.6万辆和3.2万辆，同比分别增长78%和67.9%。2016-2018年月度新能源汽车销量及同比变化情况资料来源：汽车工业协会

2、商用车销量同比增长5.1%

2018年，商用车累计产销分别完成428万辆和437.1万辆，同比分别增长1.7%和5.1%。分车型产销情况看，客车产销同比分别下降7%和8%；货车产销同比分别增长2.9%和6.9%。12月，商用车产销均完成42.8万辆，同比分别下降1%和增长5.2%。2016-2018年月度商用汽车销量及同比变化情况资料来源：汽车工业协会

3、乘用车自主品牌市场份额上升

2018年，乘用车累计产销分别完成2352.9万辆和2371万辆，同比分别下降5.2%和4.1%。其中，轿车产销分别完成1146.6万辆和1152.8万辆，同比分别下降4%和2.7%；SUV产销分别完成995.9万辆和999.5万辆，同比分别下降3.2%和2.5%；MPV产销分别完成168.5万辆和173.5万辆，同比分别下降17.9%和16.2%；交叉型乘用车产销分别完成42万辆和45.3万辆，同比分别下降20.8%和17.3%。

12月，乘用车产销分别完成205.5万辆和233.3万辆，同比分别下降21.3%和15.8%。其中，轿车产销分别完成101万辆和102.8万辆，同比分别下降17.9%和14.3%；SUV产销分别完成83.5万辆和98.2万辆，同比分别下降26.4%和16.3%；MPV产销分别完成16.8万辆和17.6万辆，同比分别下降15.9%和22.9%；交叉型乘用车产销分别完成4.2万辆和4.7万辆，同比分别下降7.7%和9.7%。2016-2018年月度乘用车销量及同比变化情况资料来源：汽车工业协会

四、中国汽车制造行业发展中存在的问题

目前，我国汽车工业存在经济规模小、技术开发落后、进出口发展不平衡、消费政策不健全和服务管理落后等问题。

1、经济规模问题：汽车工业企业达不到规模经济临界点要求

企业在达到一定的生产规模之后才能赢利。各类型汽车规模经济的临界点为，国家汽车工业汽车生产量为200万辆以上；轿车企业为20万辆-30万辆；轻型载货汽车企业为10万辆-12万辆；重型载货汽车企业为1万辆-8万辆。目前我国现有124家总装厂，52家改装厂以及2000家汽车发动机、零部件和配套件企业，只有一汽集团公司等五家企业年产量超过10万辆。按照国际上25万辆-30万辆的经济规模临界点要求，目前中国还没有一家汽车企业能够达到，即使上海一大众汽车有限