化石燃料依赖社区经济韧性研究议程（英）

AresearchagendafTocitethisarticlebeforepublication:LeonClarkeetal2024Environ.Res.:Energyinpress/10.1088/2753-3751/ad6d70Manuscript’watermark,butexcludinganyotherediting,typeset/licAlthoughreasonableendeavourshavebeentakentwithinthisarticle,tharticle,pleaserefertospecificallystatedinthefigurecViewthearticleonlineforupdatesandenhancemenThiscontentwasdownloaPage1of21AUTHORSUBMITTEDMANUSCRIPT-EREN-100077.R1123456789SustainableDevelopmentattheWestVirginiaUniversitySEmilyGrubertisanassociateprofessorofsustainuniversityfellowatResourcesAlexJamesisanassociateprofeNathanM.JensenisaprofessorinthNoahKaufman*(nk2792@)isaseniorresearchscholarattheCenteronGlobal*CorrespondingauthorsAcknowledgements:WethankZacharyD.Whitlockforhisexcellentresearchsupport.manuscript.1123456789AUTHORSUBMITTEDMANUSCRIPT-EREN-100077.R1Page2of21systemawayfromfossilfuelsinresponsetworld’senergymarketonglobalenergyaccess.changeandtheeconomicchangesrequiredfordecliteratureonthephysicalawayfromfossilfuels.Mostresearchonthistopichasfocusedoncharacterizingthescopeofthechallenge(3–5)andprovidingbroadprinciplesforaddreimplement,andevaluatestrategiesforsuppor弋ngtheeconomiesoffossilfaroundtheworld(9).fossilfuelworkforce,policiestosupportgovernmentsthatdependheavilyonfossilfuelTheNeedtoSupportUSFossilFuel–DependentCommunifiesTheUnitedStatesistheworld’slproducerofcoal(10).Figure1illustremploymentincertainregions(thefigureillustratesdirectjobsoinducedemployment,).2Stateandlocalgovernmentsintheseregionsalsodependheavilyonfossilfuelindustriesforrevenuetofundschools,1By“economicresilieconomicshocks(2)—inthiscase,fromdecliningdemandforandproduc弋onoffossilfuels.2Employmentanalyseso什enincludetheeffectsofinvestmentindirect,indirect,andinducedjobs“direct”referstoemploymentintherelevantindustries(e.g.,oilandgasextrac弋employmentinassociatedsupplychains(e.g.,manufacturingvehiclesusedino2Page3of21AUTHORSUBMITTEDMANUSCRIPT-EREN-100077.R11234567893123456789AUTHORSUBMITTEDMANUSCRIPT-EREN-100077.R1Page4of21fromfossilfuels.Thus,increasingeconomicresilienceinfossilfuel–dependentregionswillworld)willsuccessfullyrespondtoclimatethreatsand(2)ensuringthatthebenefitsandGrowingPolicySupporthaveclosedorfaceuncertainfutures—localgovernmentofficials,economicdevelopmentCongressof$100–200millionperyeartosupportstrugglingcoalcommuni弋esdependentregions.fossilfuel–dependentcommuni弋es,includingfundingboosdevelopment.Manyotherprogramsthatdonotspecificallytargetfossilfuel-dependent4Page5of21AUTHORSUBMITTEDMANUSCRIPT-EREN-100077.R1123456789Table1.FederalFundingTiedtoPlace-BasedPolicyinFossilfuel–dependentCommunitiesfossilcommunitiesIWGonEnergyCommunities1EnergyCommunities2~$25million/yearDOECleanEnergyDemonstrAssistancetoCoalCommunities4~$550millionDOEAdvancedEnergyManufacturingandRecyclingGrantProgram3AppalachianRegionalCommission3Carboncapturedemonstrationandpilots3AdvancedManufacturingTaxCredit5$4billionforcoalcommunitiesOrphanedoilandgaswells3DOEEnergyInfrastructureReinvAbandonedMineLands3EnergyCommunityTaxCreditBonus5economicresilience,includinginitsmajoroil-producingregion(24).Fossilfuel–dependentdevelopmentstrategiestosupportlong-termeconomicandfiscalhealth(25).NGOs,suchasthecommunityleaders(26,27).LimitafionsofExisfingPolicies5123456789AUTHORSUBMITTEDMANUSCRIPT-EREN-100077.R1Page6of21Althoughunprecedentedinmagnitudeandscope,theseeffortstosupportfossilfuel–oncoalcommuni弋es,whicharecalargeremployerandpublicrevenuegenerator,andittheUS(11,28).Somemajorprograms,suchasthefederalbonustaxcredonfossilfuels(3).Second,mostpoliciesfocusnotonbuildinglong-termeconomicresiliencebutiextendedunemploymentinsurance,supportforlocalgovernmentfinances,orotherbroadpolicies,includingthosedesignedtobuildeconomicresilience.Alackofsustainedcommitmenttotheseregionswillexacerbatemanylocalstakeholders’distrustofthefederalgovernmalsothescaleofinvestmentflowingtotransformthephysi$1.2trillionoverthenext10years(32),whereasfederalprogramsfocusedonfossilfuel–nofederalprogramsupportsstateandlocalgovernmentbudgetsthatreceivapproaches,thedesignofplace-basedpoliciestosuppevidencecreatesanenormousopportunityforscholars.TheOpportunityforAddifionalScholarshipAmodestbutgrowingbodyofresearchexaminesstrategies6Page7of21AUTHORSUBMITTEDMANUSCRIPT-EREN-100077.R1123456789Scholarshavealsobeguntoestablishcrucialbaselinedata,suchastheemploymentandeconomicoutcomesofdisplacedfossilfuelworkers(35–37).meetthechallengesfacingtheeconomiesoffossilfuel–dependentregions.Notably,theunderstandingofthelimitsofcapitalachallengesfacingfossilfuel–dependenteconomies.Fiscalrisksareonekeyexample.Thelossofdominantindustriescancreatedownwardspiralsoferodinglocaltaxdifficultyraisingpublicfunds(15,40),degradingthepublicservicesthatarevitaltofutureeconomicdevelopmentandcommunitywell-being.Infossil-fuel-richstatesthatlackincometaxes(e.g.,TexasandWyoming)orbroad-basedtaxesaltogether(e.g.,Alaska),balancingstate(41,42).Researcherscanalsocharacterizethecostsandbenefitsofdecommissioningfossilfuelinfrastructure,thescaleandcharacterofsocialsafetynetsupportsthatmaybenesuccessesandfailures.Withouttheabilitytoconductrandomizedcontrolledtrials—typicallythegoldstandardforestablishcasestudyandquasi-experimentalapproachestoassesstheeffec弋vendeployingcleanenergytechnologiesandtheirsupplychains,shouldenableresearcherstoassessthedegreetowhichtheseindustriescanofferhigmaybevaluableindesigningmoredurablepoltheworld’senergysystemisunprecedented,sohistoryprovidesnop7123456789AUTHORSUBMITTEDMANUSCRIPT-EREN-100077.R1Page8of21resource-dependenteconomies(43),alongwithagrowingbodyofworkthatassessestheconsequencesofmajoreconomicshocksandpoliciesdesignedtomGovernmentshavelongexperimentedwithplace-basedeconomicpolicies,includingregionalefforts,suchastheTennesseeValleyAuthority,AppalachianRegionalCommission,andGulfOpportunityZones(46–48).Otherpolicies,suchasEmpowermentZonesandtheNewMarketsTaxCredit,havetargeteUnitedStates,governmentsinEurope,theMiddleEast,andelsewhereasupportfossilfuel–dependentregionsandboosteconomicresilience(51,52).InsightsfromeachEventhebest-designedstrategieswillfailwithoutsufficientdesireandcapacityforsuccessfulpolicyapproachisunlikelytosucceed,andpolicyassessmentsmaynotgeneralizefromplacetoanother.Instead,successfulstrategiesandassessmentswillneedtoundersrelevantpolicycontexts,thenassessstrategiesthatcancatertothefinancialandtechnicalcommuni弋es,includingpolicyengagementfromscToday’sScholarshipCanInformFuturePolicyDesignstrategies,learnfrommistakesandsuccesses,andadaptpolicytosupportfossilfuel–fromthescholarly,philanthropic,governmdoesnotleavebehindthepeopleanmorethanacentury.8Page9of21AUTHORSUBMITTEDMANUSCRIPT-EREN-100077.R1123456789References9123456789AUTHORSUBMITTEDMANUSCRIPT-EREN-100077.R1Page11of21AUTHORSUBMITTEDMANUSCRIPT-EREN-100077.R1123456789123456789AUTHORSUBMITTEDMANUSCRIPT-EREN-100077.R1123456789AUTHORSUBMITTEDMANUSCRIPT-EREN-100077.R1123456789AUTHORSUBMITTEDMANUSCRIPT-EREN-100077.R1AppendixNAICSName213111213112213113212122111222121023712333134247486Page15of21AUTHORSUBMITTEDMANUSCRIPT-EREN-100077.R1123456789maybeimmediatelyaccessed,andsummarizestheoutreachandengagementthatIWGhconductedwithenergycommuni弋es.IWGhasAdjustmentAssistancesetasideforregionsthatarenegincreasedto$33.5millionby2021.ForFY2023,thefundingwas$48million.ThroughtheandtheEconomicAdjustmentAssistanceprogram.AcrossallsixAmericanRescuePlancoun弋esacross13states,opioidcrisis,fundingforcri弋c123456789AUTHORSUBMITTEDMANUSCRIPT-EREN-100077.R1andHumanServiceshighunemploymentandpovertyrates.In2021,theOfficeofCommunityServicesbeganBudget:FY2023:$24million(hhs_fy202TheAdvancedEnergyManufacturingandRecyclingGrantProgramprovidesgranfundingamountof$750million,featuredaReadinessTechnicalAssistancePrograminfuels,energyefficiencytechnologies,electricvehicandotherprojectsthatredmanufacturing-and-recycling-grants)TheAMLERprogrambeganin2016totransformlegacyminingsitesintoareasmillion.Alabama,Ohio,andVirginiareceived$11.7million,andtheCrowPage17of21AUTHORSUBMITTEDMANUSCRIPT-EREN-100077.R1123456789123456789AUTHORSUBMITTEDMANUSCRIPT-EREN-100077.R1dynamicsbetweenthePTCforElectriciStateGovernmentcommunity.InresponsetothepassageoftheAmericanRecoveryAct,BIL,CHIPSandScdeterminehowtosetupprogramstomeetthew$12millionDisplacedWorkerAssistanceFund,whichprovidesdirectpamine.Undertheact,theNewMextheSanJuanregion.InOctober,2023,theeconomicdevelopmentassistancefundsplitthefundingwasappropriateresponsibleformanagingprojectsandleadingresearchanddevelopment.ThepilotphasefundsPage19of21AUTHORSUBMITTEDMANUSCRIPT-EREN-100077.R1123456789tobuildCERF-alignedprojects.Thetribalfundingopportunitydedicates$25millionintoeconomicdevelopmentstrategyplans.CommunityCollegeDistrictaimstoprovidetechnicalassistancetoeconomicdevelopmentWyomingEnergyAuthority(WEA),Wyomingprojects,preservesexipoliciesthatensuretheresponsibleuseofWyoming’senergyresources.Thegroupadvocatesstorageorwindandsolarenergyprojectsthroughgovernor,CommissioneroftheDepartmentofEmploymentandEconomicDevelopment,andsurveys,assessedfutu123456789AUTHORSUBMITTEDMANUSCRIPT-EREN-100077.R1Page20of21workersfindnewjobs,developsitereadinessplans,andconductedeconomicplanningforsitesthatar