中亚学院：2024年中亚贸易增长和经济一体化概述报告An overview of Central Asian trade growth and economic integration

张小可张小可VisitingFellowProgramAnoverviewofCentralAsiantradegrowthandeconomicintegrationJANUARY2024MUBINZHONABDUVALIEVJanuary2024ScholarswereencouragedtoconductresearchonCARECintegrationtopicsandResearchSpecialistofcommentsforitsfurtherimprovement. past,andacommonvision1Kazakhstan,KyrgyzRepublic,Tajikistan,Turkmenistan,Uzbekistan2TheRTAsinvolvingtheCARsgenerallyhaveanarrowcoverageandcomplexrulesoforiginandmostofthemhaveremainedagreementsonpaperonly(ADB,2006p12).3CARECisapartnershipof11countries(Afghanistan,Azerbaijan,China,Georgia,Kazakhstan,theKyrgyzRepublic,Mongolia,Pakistan,Tajikistan,Turkmenistan,andUzbekistan)anddevelopmentpartnersthatpromotesregionaleconomiccooperationandintegration.therapideconomicexpa(Rummer,2000;Ramfrestronglycorrelated(Winters,1996;Mazhiketofluctuationsincommodit4Kazakhstanisoneoftheregionsthathasmadesignificanteffortstoupgradeitstransportationinfrastructureatarapidpace.WesternEurope-WesternChina(WE-WC)InternationalTransitCorridorProject(partoftheCAREC)hasbeenundertakenaspartofthecountry'sambitiousroaddevelopmentprogram.Eventhoughthereisavastliteraturethat&Levine,1992),geographicdiversity(Sarpong&Teirlinck,2018;Belderbosetal,2006)andgeographicdisadvantageanddistance(Raballandetal,2005;RaballandG,2003;Carrère&associatedwithRTAs.Ac5AsidefromtheargumentsagainstRTAsrelatedtomultilateralagreements,BhagwatiarguesthatthereareadditionalargumentsagainstRTAsrelatedtoRTAsinvolvingmultilateralagreements,includingthe'stumblingblock'argumentthatsuggeststhatcountriesalreadyinvolvedinanRTAhavefewerincentivestoenterintomultilateralagreements.2018).6Asaresult,ourgravitymodelisnotabletoincorporateRTAorFTAowingtotheseissues.Althoughthegravitymodeldoesnotexplicitlyincludefreetradeagreements(FTAs),itindirectlycapturestheireffectsthroughvariableslikeGDPgrowthanddistance.ComparingtheCARstothoseofotherregions,itisevidentthattheydonotengageextensivelyinFTAs.VariouschallengespreventthedevelopmentofFTAsinCentralAsia,limitingtheirpotentialimpactontradeflows.Theseincludeinadequateinfrastructure,limiteddiversificationofexports,bureaucraticbarriers,andpoliticalinstability.concernedwithreproducingsovereEAEUanytimesoon(Usmanova,2020).Turkmenist7TheKyrgyzRepublichasallegedlybeenpressuredbytheRussianstojointheUnion,whichhasdrawnmuchattention.However,littleconsiderationhasbeengiventotheactualmotivationsforjoiningtheUnionortothepossibilitythatitmayevenresultinrealbenefits.(Peyrouse,2015:pp10-11).8SinceTurkmenistanfollowedaneutralpolicyborderingonisolationinitsrelationswithsuchmultilateralinstitutions,itsunwillingnesstoparticipateintheintegrationprocesswasevidentfromtheverybeginning(Olcott,2011).9Anexperimentthatwastried,failed,andrejectedwastheplannedeconomyasahistoricalanomaly,asanaberration(Shields,2012).10SeealsoTMukhammadiyev,2020.11Politicsandcourtscanchangeformalrulesovernight,butcustoms,traditions,andcodesofconducttendtoresistdeliberatepolicychangesmorereadily(North,1990).12Regionalintegrationispositivelycorrelatedwithcomparativeadvantage.Withtheintegrationofeconomiesandtheremovaloftradebarriers,countriesareabletotakeadvantageoftheircomparativeadvantagesandspecializeinproducinggoodsandservicesthataremostefficientforthem.Inturn,thisleadstoanincreaseintradeandeconomicgrowth.13Afterindependence,andespeciallyafteroil,gas,gold,andothermineralspricessoaredintheearly2000s,CentralAsia'scomparativeadvantageintraditionalresourceexportsdidnotadverselyaffectexportearnings(Brikmanetal,2012;Romfret,2021).tradeopenness,andthattheeffecconcernsaboutthesestudies'inappropriateu14SachsandWarner(1995)providefurtherevidenceofthepositivetrade-growthnexusbyemphasizingthatopendevelopingeconomieshavegrownatarateof4.49percentperyearwhileopendevelopedeconomieshavegrownatarateof2.29percentperyear.Asaresult,closeddevelopingeconomieshaveexperiencedgrowthof0.69percentonaverageanddevelopedeconomieshaveexperiencedgrowthof0.74percentonaverage.tradeopennessincreaseseconomexist,theyarenotinsurmountable.AstudybyChangetal(2005)2013).15AllfiveCARsdonothavedirectoceanaccess.UzbekistanandLiechtensteinaretheworld'sonlytwodouble-landlockedcountries(WorldAtlas,2023).RetrievedinJuly2023.Availableat:16UnitedNationsOfficeoftheHighRepresentativefortheLeastDevelopedCountries,LandlockedDevelopingCountriesandSmallIslandDevelopingStates.remainslargelyuntapp17CARstradewitheachothers'accountsforjust10percentoftheirtotaltrade,whilemostoftheirtradegoestoChina,theEuropeanUnion,andRussia.ThesethreepartnersaccountfortwothirdsofCARimportsand57percentoftheirexports(InternationalTradeCentre,2023).18AssociationofSoutheastAsianNations.50Figure1.CARsintraregionaltradeshare,exportshare,importshare,andintraregionaltradeintensityindexinpercentage,during2005-20215020042006200820102012201420162018202020222024

ExportShare(%)口ImportShare(%) △Intra-RegionalTradeShare(%)XIntra-RegionalTradeIntensityIndexSource:AuthorcalculationusingIMFDirectionofTradeStatistics,2022;ADB,2022.50 .KAZ.TAJ.TKM.UZB6420KAZKGZTAJUZBFigure2.IntraregionaltradeshareofCARsinpercentage,2005-202250 .KAZ.TAJ.TKM.UZB6420KAZKGZTAJUZB543210 .KGZ.TAJ.TKM.UZB050KAZKGZTAJTKMSource:AuthorcalculationusingIMFDirectionofTradeStatistics,2022;ADB,2022.Note:KAZ-Kazakhstan,KGZ-KyrgyzRepublic,TAJ-Tajikistan,TKM-Turkmenistan,UZB-Uzbekistandevelopment.AccordingtotheCRII,19regionalintegrationFurthermoreCRII(2021)reportsthattheaTable1.CARsbilateraltradecomplementarityindicesKRGTAJTKMUZB0.350.110.090.12KGZ90.11TAJ0.190.310.110.15TKM0.110.290.080.08UZB0.190.290.120.09Average0.160.310.100.090.11Source:RegionalTradeDynamicsandSelectedIndicatorsintheCARECregion(CAREC,2019);Ahmed&Javed,2022.Note:KAZ-Kazakhstan,KRG-KyrgyzRepublic,TAJ-Tajikistan,TKM-Turkmenistan,UZB-Uzbekistan19TheCRIIrangesfrom0to1,with0representingthelowestintegrationand1thehighest.80400Figure3.CARs,tradeopenness(totaltradeasapercentageofGDP),2005-20218040020042006200820102012201420162018202020222024

Kazakhstan口KyrgyzRepublic△TajikistanXTurkmenistanXUzbekistanSource:AuthorcalculationsusingInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)—WorldEconomicOutlook(WEO)October2022DatabaseandIMFDirectionofTradeStatistics(DOTS)December2022Database20TheWorldBank'sDoingBusinessreport(2020)identifiestheteneconomiesthathaveimprovedthemostintheirlevelofeaseofdoingbusinessasaresultofregulatoryreforms.DoingBusiness2020identifiesSaudiArabia,Jordan,Togo,Bahrain,Tajikistan,Pakistan,Kuwait,China,India,andNigeriaasthetenleadingcountriesthathaveimprovedtheirbusinessclimate.The59regulatoryreformsimplementedbytheseeconomiesaccountedforone-fifthofallglobalreformsin2018/19.Inadditiontostartingabusinessandobtainingconstructionpermits,theyalsofocusedoncross-bordertrade.transitioneconomies(Acaravci&Ozturk,2012;Mehicetal,2013).opportunitieshaveimproved,andeconomicgrowthhasbeenenhancconductedbyAshurovetal(2020)examinedthedeterFigure4:CAR'sFDI,NetInflows(Bop.CurrentUS$),2005-20228642-2E-0920042006200820102012201420162018202020222024

Kazakhstan口KyrgyzRepublic△TajikistanXTurkmenistanXUzbekistanSource:AuthorcalculationbasedontheUNCTADandIMFdatabases,BalanceofPaymentdatabase(2022)21Theabundanceofnaturalresources,thestrategiclocation,thestablepoliticalenvironment,thefavorableinvestmentclimate,andthegovernment'sproactivepoliciesallcontributetoKazakhstan'sattractivenessforforeigndirectinvestment.Moreover,foreigninvestorsareattractedtocountrieswithsignificantoilandgasreserves,suchasKazakhstanandTurkmenistan.establisheddiplomatictieswi22TheChina–CentralAsia–WestAsiaCorridor.ThisrouteconFigure5.CARsTradeShare(%)withChina,2005-2021704002004200620082010201220142016201820202022

Kazakhstan口Kyrgyzstan△TajikistanXTurkmenistanXUzbekistanSources:AuthorcalculationbasedontheIMFDirectionsofTradeStatistics,202223Approximately1percentoftheworld'soilsupplyistransportedthroughtheCaspianPipelineConsortiumpipeline,and80percentofKazakhstan'soilexportsarehandledbythispipeline(andRon,2022).454050Figure6.CARsTradeShare(%)withEU,2005-20214540502004200620082010201220142016201820202022KazakhstanKyrgyzRepublicTajikistanTurkmenistanUzbekistanSources:AuthorcalculationbasedontheIMFDirectionsofTradeStatistics,2022454050Figure7.CARsTradeShare(%)withRussia,2005-20214540502004200620082010201220142016201820202022

Kazakhstan口KyrgyzRepublic△TajikistanXTurkmenistanXUzbekistan24SeeAbduvaliev&Bustillo(2020).454050Figure8.CARspersonalremittan4540502006200820102012201420162018202020222024KyrgyzRepublicTajikistanUzbekistanSource:AuthorcalculationbasedonthedataoftheWorldDevelopmentIndicator,2023Note:Personalremittancescomprisepersonaltransfersandcompensationofemployeesandincludeallcurrenttransfersbetweenresidentandnonresidentindividuals.25AccordingtoMikhailMishustin,theRussianPrimeMinister,TurkmenistanandRussiaincreasedmutualdeliveriesby32.7percent.Ingeneral,thesestatisticsindicatethattradewithRussiahasincreasedwithareboundinCOVID-19butalsothesubstitutionofEuropeansuppliersontheRussianmarketowingtobuoyanttradegrowth(SilkRoadBriefing,2023).tradewiththemandattractinv2616yearsisconsideredalongperiodoftimebySachsandWarner(1995),Edwards(1998),andRodrikandRodriquez(2001).lnExportijt=β0+β1ln(GDpit)+β2ln(GDpjt)+β3ln(opennessit)+β4ln(opennessjt)+β5ln(FDIit)+β6ln(Disijt)+β7ln(Landit)+εijt(1)(countryj)(inmillionUSD),atrades27Tradeflowsarealsoinfluencedbytheeconomicsizeofthecountriesinvolved.Exportstendtobemoreplentifulinlargereconomies,whereasimportsaremoreprevalentinsmallereconomies.Asameasureoftheeconomicsizeofacountry,thegravitymodelutilizestheGDPofthecountry.Thisfactorcanprovidepolicymakersandresearcherswithabetterunderstandingofhoweconomicgrowthisaffectedbychangesineconomicsize.28Geographicallylocatedandendowedwithnaturalresources,theCARsareamixofmiddle-andlow-incomecountries(WorldBank,2022).accountforasignificantportionoftheadditionalcostseriesorcross-sectionaldatasets,theunobservedheterogeneicapturevariationswithinentitiesovertime,controlforunobservedheterogeendogeneityconcernsin(Belletal,2019).Thus,thesefeaturesmakeREandFEmodelsvaluabletoolsforunderstandingamodelthanothermethods;however,thecharacteristicsofthedata,andtTable2.DefinitionandsourceofvariablesVariablesMeasureSourceln(Exportijt)NaturallogarithmoftotalexportsbetweenCARs(countryi)andChina,Russia,andEU(countryj)(inmillionUSD),WorldDevelopmentIndicatorsUnitedNationsConferenceonTradeandDevelopmentInternationalMonetaryFundln(GDpijt)NaturallogarithmofGDPinlevelofCARs(countryi)andChina,Russia,andEU(countryj)WorldDevelopmentIndicatorsln(opennit)RatioofthesumofimportsandexportstotheGDPthatprovidesthemeasureofopennessofeconomyWorldDevelopmentIndicatorsln(FDIjt)FDI,netinflows(%ofGDP)WorldDevelopmentIndicatorsUnitedNationsConferenceonTradeandDevelopmentInternationalMonetaryFundln(Disijt)DistancebetweencapitalofeachCARandChina,Russia,andEUCEPIIln(Landit)Dummyforlandlocked1ifcountryiandjarelandlockedand0otherwiseUnitedNationsConferenceonTradeandDevelopmentTable3.Summarystatistics,usingobservations2005-2022(afterthelogtransformation)MeanMedianSDMinMaxL_Export_CARs_China2.8542.8710.65480.53624.187L_Export_CARs_Rus2.3682.1810.69421.3003.667L_Export_CARs_EU2.8212.9460.53151.2943.741L_GDPinlevel_CARs0.70180.77700.6635-1.0431.787L_GDPinlevel_China2.0061.9650.41470.69092.613L_GDPinlevel_RUS0.92611.4401.690-4.5812.162L_GDPinlevel_EUs1.5362.0812.720-5.5995.974L_FDI_China_CARs7.2647.2401.2414.5249.215L_FDI_RUS_CARs4.4314.5852.301-1.8557.368L_FDI_EU_CARs5.9886.0552.084-1.5618.586L_Open_CARs3.9894.0180.47992.9124.790L_Open_China3.8153.8110.20313.5484.166L_Open_Rus3.9013.8960.059643.7794.038L_Open_EU4.4140.075934.4314.2404.632LDistCARsChina1.1671.2010.14110.96051.365LDistCARsRus1.2031.2300.11921.0371.380LDistCARsEU1.3781.4121.2012.1221.509Table4.DependentvariableExportijtVariableChinaChinaRussiaRussiaEUEUMODEL1MODEL2MODEL1MODEL2MODEL1MODEL2Constant−8.915575.87138(0.75738**)1.01787(0.08911)3.17176(0.7394)4.757950(0.08991*)4.91879(0.0058**)GDpi(0.0526*)0.07087(0.00519**)0.05124(0.1204)0.127489(0.02588*)0.0154832(0.9199)0.154534(0.054534**)0.0145235(0.90403)GDpj0.332139(0.0079***)0.729835(0.077506*)0.0504935(0.07488*)0.0358657(0.8660)0.269986(0.09063*)0.314405(0.8108openi0.0819510(0.2144)0.489715(0.0232**)0.922379(0.025714**)0.01087200.717042(0.8391)0.174384(0.174384)openj0.601653(0.1468)−0.807851(0.089914)0.874600(0.5075)(0.052306*)0.3559061.05957(0.154534)0.2069121(0.02147)FDIj0.286494(0.05010**)0.0026138(0.022301*)0.0092439(0.0193*)(0.7923)0.0934060.246788(0.017605**)0.232284(0.075903**)Distj−0.222793(0.03006*)−0.293241(0.8481)−0.107400(0.0147*)(0.078711*)−0.111921(0.10390)−0.238801(0.01432*)−0.128901(0.06781*)R2value0.720.660.690.620.670.59NSource:AuthorcalculationsNote:P-valueoft-statisticsareinparentheses*Significantat1%level;**Significantat2%level;***Significantat5%levelOwingtocollinearitiesencountered,thevariableof'landlockedness'isconstantandomittedsinceallCARsarelandlockedwhichmeanszero.CoefficientsinFEandREmodelsaredifferentbecausetheyservedifferentpurposesandareestimatedusingdifferentmethods.REmodelsaremoreflexibleandcanhandlecomplexdatastructures,whileFEmodelsaresimplerandmorecommonlyusedwhenthedataisidenticallydistributed.