中亚学院：2024水资源、农业与能源领域内气候不作为的影响及强化跨部门与区域协作的潜在益处研究报告Climate Inaction Report

March,2024

ClimateInactionReport

ImplicationsofClimateInactionacrosstheWater-Agriculture-EnergyNexusand

PotentialBenefitsofImprovedIntersectoralandRegionalCooperation

March,2024

AbdurasulKayumovAsifRazzaq

1

Disclaimer:

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Nationalconsultants--Mr.DovletJumagulyyev,Mr.JavlonbekIshchanov,Ms.LianaBaiseit,Mr.ShukhratAbdullaev,andMs.TursunaiUsubalieva–providedsupportindatacollection,andMs.EmmaTong,

ResearchSpecialistoftheCARECInstitute,providedgrantadministrationsupportandcoordinationthroughouttheprocess.TheCARECInstitute’sPublicationBoardreviewedthereportandprovidedcommentsforitsfurtherimprovement.TheresearchisfundedthroughthetechnicalandfinancialassistancefromtheAsianDevelopmentBank(ADB)underTA-6694REG:ClimateInactionProject:

Implicationsofclimateinactionacrosswater-agriculture-energynexusandpotentialbenefitsofimprovedintersectoralandregionalcooperation.

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2

TableofContents

Inbrief 3

ExecutiveSummary 4

Introduction:OverviewoftheStudyanditsPurpose 7

ApproachandMethodology 8

RegionalContext:ClimateChangeTrends 10

CountryOverviews:ImpactsandConsequences 16

Kazakhstan 16

ClimateChange’sImpactonWaterResources 18

ClimateChange’sImpactonAgriculture 18

ClimateChange’sImpactonEnergy 20

VulnerabilitytoClimate-RelatedDisasters 22

KyrgyzRepublic 22

ClimateChange’sImpactonWaterResources 24

ClimateChange’sImpactonAgriculture 25

ClimateChange’sImpactonEnergy 26

VulnerabilitytoClimate-RelatedDisasters 27

Tajikistan 28

ClimateChange’sImpactonWaterResources 30

ClimateChange’sImpactonAgriculture 32

ClimateChange’sImpactonEnergyResources 33

VulnerabilitytoClimate-RelatedDisasters 33

Turkmenistan 34

ClimateChange’sImpactonWaterSector 36

ClimateChange’sImpactonAgricultureSector 37

ClimateChange’sImpactontheEnergySector 38

VulnerabilitytoClimate-RelatedDisasters 38

Uzbekistan 38

ClimateChange’sImpactonWaterResources 40

ClimateChange’sImpactonAgriculture 42

ClimateChange’sImpactonEnergyResources 42

VulnerabilitytoClimate-RelatedDisasters 43

BenefitsofRegionalCooperationandNexusapproach 44

RegionalCooperation 44

Water 44

Agriculture 46

Energy 46

NexusapproachinCentralAsia 47

RecommendationsandRoadmapforFutureActions 49

RecommendedSectoralInterventions 49

NationalScale 50

RegionalScale 52

ClimaterelatedCapacityBuilding 52

Conclusion 55

References 56

3

Inbrief

ClimatechangehasprofoundimplicationsfortheeconomiesofCentralAsiannations.Whilechanging

temperaturesmaynotimpactwateradequacyforkeysectorsinthemediumterm,aloomingwater

shortagethreatensagriculture,energygeneration,andmoreinthelongrun.Theoverallcostofinactionintheshortandmediumtermisprojectedtoreach$76billion.Thisestimatedrawsfromdataonthe

potentialeconomiclossesineachcountry’ssectorsandtheuntappedbenefitsofregionalcooperationuntil2050.

TheeffectivemanagementofclimatechangeinCentralAsiahingesondecision-makers'understandingoftheriskmanagementapproachacrosssectorsanditsefficientimplementation.Asoutlinedinthisstudy,theanticipatedconsequencesofclimateinactiondonotencompasspotentialspillovereffectssuchas

climate-inducedmigrationandhealthimpacts.Whilethisstudyprovidesacomprehensiveoverviewof

climatechange’simpactonthewater,agriculture,andenergysectorsinCentralAsiancountries,futurein-depthresearchthatincorporatesdetailedmacroeconomicconsiderationsisessentialfordevisingand

enablingappropriateresponsestoclimatechange’sconsequencesintheregion.

Thisstudyrecommendsthefollowingnational-levelactionsinthewatersector:modernizeinfrastructure,improvethemaintenanceandmonitoringofwaterfacilities,enhanceclimaterisk-relateddecision-

makingandpreparedness,enhanceresearchandthedigitalizationinthewatersector,andimplement

flood-controlmeasures.Thisstudyalsoproposesthefollowingnationalpolicyactionsintheagriculture

sector:introducenewapproachesinwheatcultivation,promotecropdiversification,encourageclimate-smartagriculturalpractices,improvepasturemanagement,andimplementagroforestryandsoil

conservationmeasures.Additionally,thisstudyoutlinesnational-levelpolicyactionsintheenergysectorthatincludecapitalizingonsolarandwindopportunities,promotingenergyconservationandawareness,anddevelopingclimate-resilientenergyinfrastructure.

CrucialregionalactionsbyCentralAsiancountriesincludetheestablishmentofaregionalclimatechangecooperationframework,increasedinvestmentintransboundaryinfrastructure,andtheinitiationof

regionaldata-sharingpractices.

Theeffectiveimplementationoftheoutlinednationalandregionalclimateactionsnecessitatesathoroughanalysisofnationalcontextsandtheirsectoralriskassessments.Thiscallsfornationalandregional

capacity-buildingworkshopsaimedatcomprehendingcontextualizedclimatechangemeasuresintheregion.

4

ExecutiveSummary

Climatechange,withoutadoubt,presentsadditionalheadwindstoalreadystrainedwaterresourcesthataffectagriculturalproductivityandenergyinfrastructureinCentralAsiancountries.Strainedwater

resourcesisalreadyhavingrippleeffectsontheseeconomies.Themedium-andlong-termprojectionssuggesttheconsequencesofclimateinactioninCentralAsiamightgetprogressivelycalamitous.

Thecombinedcostsofclimateinactionacrossthethreesectors,coupledwiththeuntappedbenefitsofregionalcooperation,total$76billionfortheCentralAsianeconomiesintheshortandmediumterm,equivalentto22%oftheregion'scurrentgrossdomesticproduct(GDP).Althoughthisestimateisbasedonavailabledataandinformation,theactualimpactofclimatechangemaysurpasstheseprojectionsandleadtomultifacetedtransformationsintheregion’seconomies.

Thewater,agriculture,andenergysectorsstandasfoundationalpillarsofeconomicdevelopmentin

CentralAsia,andtheireffectivemanagementhasbeenacriticalaspectofinterstaterelationssincethe

regiongainedindependence.Theunequaldistributionofenergy,water,andlandresourcescreates

significantinterdependencies,tensions,andconflictinginterestsamongtheupstreamanddownstream

countries.Theconsequencesofclimatechangeexacerbatethesechallengeswiththepotentialtoescalateregionaltensions;however,amidstthesechallengeslieopportunitiesforcollaboration.Concertedclimateactioncanserveasakeydriverinunlockingthesepossibilities.

ThisstudyaimstoofferstakeholdersinsightsintothepotentialclimateimpactsonfiveCentralAsian

countriesbyemphasizingtherepercussionsofclimateinactiononthewater,agriculture,andenergy

sectors.Thevarioussectionsofthereportcollectivelycontributevaluableperspectivesforstakeholdersinvolvedinthiswork.

Theintroductionprovidesanoverviewandoutlinesthestudy’smethodology.Theanalysisisbasedontwoemissionpathways:thehighestemissionspathway(SSP5-8.5/RCP8.5)andthelowestemissionspathway(SSP1-2.6/RCP2.6).Utilizinginformationfromdiversesources,thestudyaimstoscrutinizeanddiscerntheimplications—bothfinancialandnon-financial—ofclimateinaction.Whileeconomicmodelingwasnot

utilized,theauthorconductedadeskreviewandinterviewstogather,organize,andanalyzecountry-specificdatawithsufficientdetailforinformedrecommendations.

Theregionalcontextsectiondelvesintotendsinclimatechangeandtheirimpactonthewater,agriculture,andenergysectorsataregionalscale.ThesectionoutlinestheaggregatesectoralimpactofclimatechangeanddepictschangesinCentralAsiancountries’resiliencetoclimatechangebetween2016and2021basedontheNotreDameglobaladaptationinitiative(ND-GAIN)countryindex.

Inthecountryoverviewsection,thisstudypresentsthespecificimpactsandconsequencesofclimate

changeonthewater,agricultural,andenergysectorsofeachCentralAsiancountry,sheddinglightontheireconomicandsocialimplications.Thekeymessagesofthissectionareasfollows:

KazakhstanThepotentialconsequencesofclimatechangeinKazakhstanincludea1.6%reductioninits

economyby2050,a3%increaseinpovertyrates,anda2.1%declineinrealwages.By2040,water

shortagesamountingto50%ofthecountry’sneedsmayoccur,whichwillaffectvarioussectorsand

potentiallyleadingtoa6%decreaseinGDPby2050.Additionally,springwheatyieldsincertainregionsareprojectedtodecreaseby13%–37%by2030and20%–49%by2050.Thereductioninareasunder

cultivationwillcauseeconomiclossesofupto$1.3billionintheagriculturesector.Theenergysectorcouldalsofaceconsiderablecosts,reaching$1.5billionannually.Thecountry'saverageannualflood-related

lossesareestimatedat$419million,withthepotentialforfurtherincreasesduetotheescalatingimpactoninfrastructure.

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KyrgyzRepublic.IntheSSP5-8.5scenario,theKyrgyzRepublicfacesapotentiallossof50%oftheTienShanglacier’svolumeby2050,whichwillhaveasignificantimpactonwaterresources.Theestimated40%

reductioninrunoffposesaseriousthreattoagriculture,whichreliesheavilyonirrigation(92%–96%of

totalwaterusage).Thiswilljeopardizepublichealth,foodsecurity,andKyrgyzRepublic’snational

economy.Thefertilityofarablelandisexpectedtodeclinesteadily,withdesertandsemi-desertareas

expandingfrom15%(in2000)to23.3%–49.7%(in2100).Consequently,wheat,sugarbeet,andfruitcropsintheChuiregion,aswellaswheatandbarleyinTalas,mayexperiencedecreasedyields.Hydropower,avitalsourceofenergysource—about90%ofKyrgyzRepublic’selectricity),facesa20%reductionin

generationduetothenegativeimpactifclimatechange.Inaddition,thecountryisatriskofanaverageannualflood-relatedlossexceeding$73million.

Tajikistan.Tajikistan,95%ofwhichencompassesmountainousterrain,servesasawatersourcefor60%ofCentralAsia,whichalsoreliesonwaterfor95%ofitselectricity.Glacialvolumesareprojectedtodecreaseby25%–30%by2050withaconcurrent6%–15%increaseinriverrunoff,whichincreasestheriskoffloods.Potentialglaciallakeoutburstflood(GLOF)eventsmayincureconomiccostsofupto20%ofGDPoran

estimatedannuallossof$48millionfromallfloodtypes.Climatevulnerabilityhindersthefullutilizationofhydropowerpotentialandcontributeselectricityshortagesof2.2–2.5billionkWhduringwinter,equivalentto15.5%ofannualproduction.Aclimate-induceddeclineinhydropowercanexacerbateenergyscarcity.Inagriculture,keycropslikewheat,barley,maize,vegetables,andfruits,mayexperienceyielddeclinesof

5%–10%by2050.

Turkmenistan.Duetoitsaridclimate,morethan80%ofTurkmenistan’sterritorylacksaconstantsourceofsurfacewater.Morethan95%ofTurkmenistan’swateroriginatesoutsidethecountry.Approximately90%ofthiswaterisderivedfromtheAmudaryaRiver,whichflowsthroughmultipleinternationalboundaries

andissettodiminishinscaleofavailablewater.Over90%ofthiswaterisconsumedbytheagriculture

sector.Yet,around50%ofthewaterislostbetweenwithdrawalandultimatedeliveryduetotheinefficientwatersupplychain.Thelowwaterlevelsofriversareaggravatedbyclimatewarming,adecreasein

precipitation,whichincreasestheriskofhydrologicaldroughtanddesertification.Thisincreasesthe

scarcityofwaterresourcesandhasnegativeimpactonagriculture.ThelossesincropproductionaloneduetoaugmentingdroughtyearscouldcostforTurkmenistan$20billionuntil2030.Climatechangealsoleadstoa10%annualincreaseinfloodsandmudflows,a5%annualincreaseinheavyrainfall,andgradual

increasesinthefrequencyandintensityofheatwaves.IntheRCP8.5scenario,Turkmenistan’sannuallossfromfloodsis$140million.

Uzbekistan.Uzbekistan’sagriculturalwateruseheldsteadyat89%–92%ofthetotalbetween2009and

2017,withaboutone-thirdlostduetoinefficienciesatacostofapproximately8%oftheGDP.ProjectionssuggestapotentialdecreaseintheSyrdaryaandAmudarya’sdownstreaminflowsof22%–28%and26%–35%,respectively,bymid-century,whichwillleadtoseverewatershortageswithupto50%unmet

demand.HalfofUzbekistan’s4.3millionhectaresofirrigatedlandfacessoilsalinity,reaching100%

salinizationinKarakalpakstan.Withoutproactiveadaptation,climatechangemayreducecropyieldsbyupto50%by2050.Intheenergysector,risingtemperaturescouldalterthedurationofheatingandcoolingseasonsby9%and16%,respectively,by2030underhighemissions.Although15%ofthecountryfaces

highseismicrisk,overhalfthepopulationresidesinhigh-riskareas.Theseareasalsogenerate65.5%ofUzbekistan’sGDP.Floodsimpact1.4millionpeopleandcausingnearly$3billioninlosses.

Thenextsectionillustratestheadvantagesofregionalcooperationandanexusapproach,andemphasizesthepotentialgainsfromcollaborativeeffortsandintersectoralinitiatives.Recognizingthepivotalroleof

wateramidstrisingtemperaturesanditshistoricalsignificanceinfosteringregionalcollaboration,this

studyproposestheformulationofaregionalcooperationframeworkwithwateratitscore—anessentialelementforboththeagricultureandenergysectorsacrosscountries.With70%oftheregion's

developmentalchallengesattributedtowaterscarcity,thisprocessnecessitatesastrategicframeworkthatisinformedbyprojectedclimatehazardsandpastandcontemporarylessonsinregionalcooperation

models,andwithAfghanistanactivelyengagedasakeystakeholder.Theframeworkshouldbedesignedto

6

bringvaluethroughashared-resourcesapproach,establishingwaterasacommonregionalresource.

Importantly,forumsforcooperationdiscussionsshouldevolvebeyondmeretalkconferencestoensurethatreportsandstrategiesresultintangibleaccomplishments.

Capacity-buildinginterventionscanfacilitatethedevelopmentofregionalframeworksandthe

identificationofnational-scaleclimateactions.Thestudy'srecommendationsoutlinethreecategoriesofcapacitybuildinginterventionsforcountriesthatspanshort-,medium-,andlong-termperiods.Giventheuncertaintiesassociatedwithclimatechange,suchactivitiesatbothnationalandregionallevelsplaya

pivotalroleinaddressingimpendingclimate-relatedchallenges.Consequently,theformulationofclimate-proofpoliciesandgrowthstrategiesemergesasacriticalimperativeforthesenations.

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Introduction:OverviewoftheStudyanditsPurpose

Climate-associatedrisks,whicharepoisedtogrowatagreaterintensityandfrequencyunderglobal

warming,causehuman,environmental,andeconomiclosses.Therefore,climatechangeisariskmultiplierformanyeconomiesworldwide.IthascompoundingnonlineareffectsforCentralAsiaaswell,whichwillexacerbateexistingeconomic,environmental,financial,andsocialstressorsunderanRCP8.5scenario

(Akhmedov,2022;AsianDevelopmentBank[ADB],2023a;Umirbekovetal.,2022).

Populationgrowthandeconomicdevelopmentthatisoverlyreliantonextractiveresourceswillheightenwater,energy,andfooddemandthroughoutCentralAsiainthecomingdecades.Theeffective

managementofnaturalresourceaccessandutilization,coupledwithimprovedinfrastructureefficiency,andarapidtransitiontorenewableenergysourcesareessentialforsustainableregionaldevelopment.

Thisstudyofclimatechangeinactioninthewater,agriculture,andenergynexusinCentralAsiaseekstoanalyzecurrenttrendsinclimatechange’simpactintheregion.CentralAsiafacessignificantchallengesinthesesectorsowingtoitsaridandsemi-aridclimate,limitedwaterresources,anddependenceon

agricultureandhydroenergyforeconomicdevelopment.ThismakesCentralAsiaoneofthemostvulnerableregionsintheworldtoclimatechange(Figure1).

Figure1:VulnerabilitytoClimateChange

Source:RegionalEnvironmentalCentreforCentralAsia(2020)

Thisstudyaimstoillustratetheconsequencesofinactioninaddressingclimatechangeinthewater,

agriculture,andenergynexusandexplorepotentialsolutions.Theultimategoalistoprovideinsightsandrecommendationsforpolicymakers,stakeholders,andpractitionerstoenhanceclimateresilienceand

sustainabilityinCentralAsia'swater,agriculture,andenergysectors.

8

ApproachandMethodology

Thisstudyexaminestheimplicationsofclimateinaction,thenegativeconsequencesofclimate-induceddamagetowater,agriculture,andenergysectors,andtheirimplicationsforindividuals,ecosystems,theeconomy,andsocietyatlarge.Italsohighlightstheuntappedbenefitsandmissedopportunitiesofamoreintegratedapproachtoclimatemitigationandregionalcooperation.Thesenegativeimpactsmayextend

beyondtheeconomicrealmandencompasshealtheffects,migrationofproductivefactors,andother

socialconsequences.Theseimpactscanbemeasuredquantitativelyinmonetarytermsandqualitativelyinmetricsrelatedtotheaffectedareas.

ThisassignmentbuildsontheCentralAsiaRegionalEconomicCooperation(CAREC)Institute'sclimate

changeprojects:ClimateVulnerability,Infrastructure,FinanceandGovernanceinCARECandtheWater–Agriculture–EnergyNexusinCentralAsiathroughthelensofclimatechange.Thereportutilizesthetwo

projects’findingsandconductsananalysisacrosswater,agriculture,andenergysectorsinCentralAsian

countries.Theframework,depictedinFigure2,usesthetwo-scenarioapproachofthetwoCARECprojectstoguidetheanalyticalworkineachsection.

Intheanalysisandtorecommendnecessaryactionsagainstclimatechange,theauthorreliedontwo

futureprojections:sharedSocioeconomicpathways(SSPs)andrepresentativeconcentrationpathways

(RCPs).SSPsconsidersocioeconomicfactorssuchaspopulation,economicgrowth,education,urbanization,andtherateoftechnologicaldevelopment.RCPsdescribetheconcentrationofdifferentlevelsof

greenhousegases(GHGs).Thetwoprojectsarecomplementaryandinterchangeablyreferenced

throughoutthestudy.Thestudyisbasedonthetwopathways:thehighestemissionspathway(SSP5-8.5/RCP8.5)andthelowestemissionspathway(SSP1-2.6/RCP2.6)(Box1).

Box1:NotesonMeanTemperatureProjections

SSP1-2.6:Inthenext-bestscenario,globalCO2emissionsarecutseverely,butnotasfast,reachingnet-zeroafter2050.ThescenarioimaginesthesamesocioeconomicshiftstowardsustainabilityasSSP1-1.9,buttemperaturesstabilizearound1.8°Chigherbytheendofthecentury.

SSP5-8.5:Inthisscenario,currentCO2emissionslevelsroughlydoubleby2050.Theglobaleconomy

growsquickly,butthisgrowthisfueledbytheexploitationoffossilfuelsandenergy-intensivelifestyles.By2100,theaverageglobaltemperatureisascorching4.4°Chigher.

Source:

/explainer-how-shared-socioeconomic-pathways-explore-future-climate-change/

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Figure2:TheAnalysisFramework

Basedonthisframeworkandinformationfromdiversesources,thestudyintendstoanalyzeandidentifytheimplications(financialandnon-financial)ofclimateinaction.Asnoeconomicmodelingwasdone,thestudyreliesonexistingdataandinformationandconductsthoroughdeskreviewstogather,organize,andanalyzecountry-specificdatawiththerequisitedepthtoyieldinformedrecommendations.Thestudy

comprisesseveralinterconnectedcomponentsbasedonthefollowingactionsanddataavailability:

First,foroursecondaryresearch,theauthorconductedacomprehensivereviewofreliable,publicly

availableinformationontheInternet,governmentsources,NGOs,donorinstitutions,andlibrariesto

identifykeyissues,challenges,andopportunitiesrelatedtoclimatechangeandtheirimpactsonthewater,agriculture,andenergysectorsinCentralAsia.Thisreviewincludedacademicresearch,projectreports,

policydocuments,andotherrelevantsources.

Second,aggregatesecondarydataontheeconomicandenvironmentalimplicationsofclimateinactionforthewater,agriculture,andenergysectorsinCentralAsiawerecollectedfromdiversesources,including

governmentreports,internationalorganizations,andacademicpublications.

Third,primaryinformationanddatawerecollectedthroughinterviewswithfiveormoreregionalexpertsineachcountryworkinginthewater,agriculture,andenergysectors.Theinterviewquestions(Appendix1)

weredesignedaccordingtotheinitialfindingsofthestudyandusedtoverifysomeofthestudy’sconclusions.Theinterviewsalsoprovidedadditionalinformationtostrengthenthefindings.

Fourth,thecollecteddatawereanalyzedtoidentifytheimplicationsofclimatechangeonthewater,

agriculture,andenergysectorsinCentralAsia.Theanalysisidentifiedthebenefitsofvariousadaptationandmitigationmeasures,includingintersectoralandregionalcooperation.Theanalysisalsoidentifiedpatterns,themes,andtrendsinthedata.

Last,policyrecommendationswerebasedonthefindingsofthestudyandprovideactionablestepstoaddressclimateinactioninthewater,agriculture,andenergysectorsinCentralAsia.Theyalsoprovidedinsightsonwaystoimproveintersectoralandregionalcooperation.

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RegionalContext:ClimateChangeTrends

Withrisingtemperaturesandmorefrequentandsevereclimatichazards,CentralAsiahasbecome

particularlyvulnerabletoclimatechange.Droughtshavebecomemorefrequent,whichwillincreasearidityandthreatenwater,food,andenergysecurity.Mostclimateimpactsareconcentratedinsensitivesectorssuchaswater,agriculture,andenergy.Theimpactofclimatechangeontheregionwillcontinueto

expand—causingfurtherecological,economic,andsocialdisruptions—unlesstherearestrongglobaladaptationandmitigationpoliciesbackedbyconcreteregional,national,andlocalactions.

Climatechangeisexertingprofoundimpactsonglobalwaterresourcesintermsofthequantityandqualityofavailablewater.Alterationsinterrestrialwaterstorage(TWS)serveasavisibleoutcomeofthisevolvingclimate(Deng&Chen,2017).Despitethefactthatonly0.5%ofthewateronEarthisavailableasuseablefreshwater,terrestrialwaterstorage,thesummationofallwateronthelandsurfaceandinthe

subsurface,includingsoilmoisture,snowandice,hasbeendiminishingatarateof1cmperyear

throughoutthepasttwodecades(WorldMeteorologicalOrganization[WMO],2021).Similarly,water-

relatedriskshavesurgedinfrequencyduringthesameperiod.Since2000,water-relatedriskshave

increasedby134%,incontrasttotwopreviousdecades(UnitedNationsOfficeforDisasterRiskReduction[UNDRR],2020).

FluctuationsintemperatureandwindvelocityleadtoshiftsinevapotranspirationandalterationsinTWS.Thisdynamicstateisintricatelytiedtotheinterplayofvariousfactorssuchasprecipitation,runoff,

evapotranspiration,andhumanwaterutilization(Deng&Chen,2017).Theseimpactsaredrivenbyrisingtemperatures,changingprecipitationpatterns,andmeltingice.

Risingtemperaturescanleadtoincreasedevaporation,whichreduceswateravailabilityinmanyregions.Thiscanexacerbatewaterscarcity,particularlyinaridareassuchasCentralAsia.Changesinprecipitationpatternsalsocontributetowaterscarcity,assomeregionsexperiencemorefrequentandintense

droughts,whileothersfaceincreasedflooding.Inaddition,climatechangecanalterthetimingand

amountofsnowfallinmountainousregions,whichaffectstheavailabilityoffreshwaterduringthedry

season.Meltingglaciersandicecapsfurthercontributetowaterscarcityastheyareimportantsourcesoffreshwaterforthewholeregion.

Oneoftheprimaryimpactsofclimatechangeonwaterresourcesisthealterationofwateravailability.Increasingtemperaturesleadtohigherevaporationrates,therebyreducingtheamountofwaterinrivers,lakes,andreservoirs.Thisworsenswaterscarcity,particularlyinaridandsemi-aridregions.AccordingtotheIntergovernmentalPanel