2025美国房地产改善报告

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22JointCenterforHousingStudiesofHarvardHarvardGraduateSchoolofDesign|HarvardKennedy

HarvardGraduateSchoolofDesign|HarvardKennedyTableofIntroductionand

EvolvingTrendsinIndustry

RemodelingMarketsin ChangingHousehold

andClimate

and Remodelingand

和气候改造趋势的演变

TheJointCenterforHousingStudiesthanksABCSupplyCompanyforsponsoringtheproductionofImprovingAmerica’sHousingPrincipalsupportforthisreportwasprovidedbythePolicyAdvisoryBoardoftheJointCenterforHousingStudies.PolicyAdvisory

TheJointCen感谢ABC供应公司赞助ImprovingAmericasHousing2025的出 ABCSupplyCompanyAndersenCorporationBuildersFirstSourceCornerstoneBuildingBrandsFergusonEnterprisesFortuneBrandsInnovationsTheHomeDepot

Louisiana-PacificCorporationLutronElectronicsMarvinWindowsandDoorsMascoCorporationNationalGypsumCompanyOldcastleAPG,aCRHCompanyPellaCorporationSaint-

StandardIndustriesU.S.WellsFargo

ABC商第一源基石建筑品牌菲尔格

APG，CRH

Sherwin‑WilliamsUSGAdditionalsupportwasprovidedbymembercompaniesoftheRemodelingFuturesSteering

ACREWindows&DoorsBuildingIndustryPartnersBuildingSupplyChannel,Inc.CaseArchitects&RemodelersClearwaterExteriorsCustomDesign&ConstructionDAPProducts,Inc.TheFarnsworthGroupFeldcoHomeRenewalFSBrandsInforma

JacuzziBathJohnBurnsResearchandConsultingLavinMediaLowe’sCompanies,Inc.MosbyBuildingArts,NationalAssociationofHomeNationalAssociationofNationalAssociationoftheRemodelingIndustryOwensConstructionProfessionalRemodelerMagazineProfessionalRemodelingCollectiveRenewalbyAndersenofGreaterWisconsin

RenovationSellsServiceFinanceCompanySolaGroup,Inc.SouthwestStyleSynchronyFinancialSystemPaversThompsonCreekU.S.CensusU.S.DepartmentofU.S.DepartmentofHousingandUrbanDevelopmentWestShoreWestlakeRoyalBuilding

ACRE窗户和门建筑行业合作伙伴建筑材料供应渠道公司案例建筑师和翻新商清水外立面定制设计及施工DAP产品公司EverFenceFarnsworth集团Feldco家居翻新FS品牌Google汉高公司家居改善研究学院HouzzInforma市场公司

JacuzziBathJohnBurnsResearchandConsultingLavinMediaLowesCompanies,Inc.MosbyBuildingArts,NationalAssociationofHomeNationalAssociationofNationalAssociationoftheRemodelingIndustryOwensConstructionProfessionalRemodeler杂志安德森翻新公司（威斯康星州大区

翻新销售Renovo家居合作伙伴Rockwool服务金融公司Sola集团股份有限公司西南风格斯蒂夫斯父子有限公司Synchrony金融系统铺路工ThompsonCreek美国人口普查局美国能源部美国住房和城市发展部西岸之家西尔克湖皇家建筑材Foradditionalinformation,datatables,andinteractivecharts,ortodownloadaPDFofthisreport,visit©2025bythePresidentandFellowsofHarvardTheopinionsexpressedinthisreportdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsofHarvardUniversity,thePolicyAdvisoryBoardoftheJointCenterforHousingStudies,sponsorsoftheRemodelingFuturesProgram,orotherpersonsororganizationsprovidingsupporttotheJointCenterforHousingStudies.

©2025bythePresidentandFellowsofHarvardTheopinionsexpressedinthisreportdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsofHarvardUniversity,thePolicyAdvisoryBoardoftheJointCenterforHousingStudies,sponsorsoftheRemodelingFuturesProgram,orotherpersonsororganizationsprovidingsupporttotheJointCenterforHousingStudies.JOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGSTUDIESOFHARVARDJOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGSTUDIESOFHARVARDUNIVERSITIMPROVINGAMERICA’SHOUSINGJOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGSTUDIESOFHARVARDUNIVERSITIMPROVINGAMERICA’SHOUSINGIMPROVINGAMERICA’SHOUSINGJOINTCENTERIMPROVINGAMERICA’SHOUSINGJOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGSTUDIESOFHARVARDUNIVERSITSpendingintheUSresidentialremodelingmarketreachedunprecedentedheightsinthewakeoftheCOVID-19pandemic,soaringabove$600billionin2022.Despitemodestdeclinesin2023and2024,marketexpendituresforimprovementsandrepairstoowner-occupiedandrentalpropertiesremainedfarabovepre-pandemiclevels.Thisextraordinaryboomwasdrivenbystronggrowthinthenumberofownersundertakingprojectsandinaveragespending,bolsteredbyahealthylabormarket,record-highpropertyvalues,andaginghomesinneedofinvestment.Manyownerscontinuetoadapttheirpropertiesforchangingneedsanduses,evenastoday’slowerratesofpersonalsavingsandhouseholdmobilitydampenimprovementandrepairspending.

在COVID‑19大流行之后，美国住宅翻新市场支出达到了前所未有的高度，2022年飙升至6000亿美元以上。尽20232024Significantinflationinthecostsofbuildingmaterialsandlaborcoupledwithalargeandpersistentskilledtradelaborshortagehavechallengednotonlyownersseekingtoupdateandmaintaintheirproperties,butalsoprofessionalcontractingfirms.Overcomingtheseobstaclesisessentialinordertomeetthecurrent

futuredemandformodernizingandpreservingtheinrecentyears,muchmoreinvestmentisrequiredtoenergyefficiency,disasterresiliency,andaccessibilityforthenation’s145millionhomes.

步改善国家1.45亿住房的能源效率、灾害恢复能力和无障FigureTheHomeRemodelingMarketIsExpectedtoRemainAbove$600Billionin

Figure2025年6000 MarketMarketSpending(Billionsof603300 2005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023HomeownerImprovements HomeownerMaintenance RentalImprovements RentalMaintenance

MarketSpending(Billionsof 609603300 MarketSpending(Billionsof 609603300 336HomeownerImprovements HomeownerMaintenance RentalImprovements RentalMaintenance

INTRODUCTIONANDSUMMARYNote:Estimated(e)andforecasted(f)valuesaremodeledusingthe2024:Q4LeadingIndicatorofRemodelingActivity(LIRA).Source:JCHSanalysisofUSDepartmentofHousingandUrbanDevelopment(HUD),AmericanHousingSurveys;USDepartmentofCommerce,RetailSalesofBuildingMaterials;USCensusBureau,SurveysofResidentialAlterationsandRepairs(C-50);USINTRODUCTIONANDSUMMARYEconomicAnalysis,DetailedFixedAssetTables;USBureauofLaborStatistics,ConsumerPriceIndex:RentofPrimaryResidence;and

Note:Estimated(e)andforecasted(f)valuesaremodeledusingthe2024:Q4LeadingIndicatorofRemodelingActivity(LIRA).Source:JCHSanalysisofUSDepartmentofHousingandUrbanDevelopment(HUD),AmericanHousingSurveys;USDepartmentofCommerce,RetailSalesofBuildingMaterials;USCensusBureau,SurveysofResidentialAlterationsandRepairs(C-50);USBureauofEconomicAnalysis,DetailedFixedAssetTables;USBureauofLaborStatistics,ConsumerPriceIndex:RentofPrimaryResidence;andREMODELINGEXPENDITURESREMAINELEVATEDThepandemicsparkedaspendingboominimprove-ments—whichincludeprojects,whetherdiscretionaryorrequired,thattypicallyboosthomevalues—andinroutinemaintenanceandrepairsthat

Thesharpincreasesince2019waspropelledbytheowner-occupiedsegment,whichaccountsformorethan80percentoftotalexpenditures.In2023,boththenumberandtheshareofhomeownersspendingonimprovementsremainedabovepre-pandemiclevelsandratesatalmost26millionhouseholds

201980%。2023占比均保持在疫情前水平之上，几乎达到260万户家庭和29.7%。201922006000到6500万户，但业主在维护上的支出占比从2019年2023752023preventdepreciation.Sincepeakingat$611billionin2022,theremodelingmarkethascontractedslightlyinthefaceofmixedeconomicandindustrialcondi-remainnearitspeakthrough2025,accordingtothelatestestimatesandprojectionsfromtheJointCenterforHousingStudies.Themarketdeclineintheaftermathofthepandemic

28.0percentofowners,wereundertakingimprove-ments.Theshareofownersspendingonmaintenanceasthenumberincreasedfrom60millionto65million.Onaverage,homeownersspentalmost$4,700onimprovementsin2023,nearly9percentaboveperafteradjustingforinflation.Additionally,averageperownermaintenancespendinghitanewhighof

翻新市场在面临混合的经济和工业条件下略有收缩（见图1）。改善支出接近4.7万美元，比2007年市场繁荣时期的每户然而，预计到2025年，支出最终将保持在峰值附近 支出高出近9%，经通胀调整后。此外，平均每户维护支ofconsumerdemandforhomeimprovementsandtobeshort-livedandmild,especiallycomparedtothepreviousdownturnduringtheGreatRecession,whenfrompeaktotrough(Figure2).TheCenterforecaststhattheremodelingmarketwillreturntogrowthin2025,butataratewellbelowthehistoricalaverageannualgainofabout5percent.

Someearlypandemicshiftsinthecompositionofhomeimprovementspendinghavesincerevertedtopre-pandemictrends.Aggregateimprovementexpendituresbecamemoreconcentratedamonghigh-spendinghouseholdsbetween2021and2023ashomeownersfocusedrelativelylessondo-it-lations.Duringthesameperiod,ownerexpendituresonprojectsthatoftenrequireskilledlabor—such

比，当时房屋改善和维修支出从峰值到谷底下降了17%（见图表）2025但增长率将远低于约5

前趋势。2021年至2023年间，随着业主相对减少对DIYFigure FigureTheTheRemodelingDownturnIsExpectedtoBeShort-Livedand

200520062007200820092010 201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023

10

200520062007200820092010 201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023

ChangeinHomeImprovement&MaintenanceSpendingHistoricalAverageAnnualGrowth

ChangeinHomeImprovement&MaintenanceSpendingHistoricalAverageAnnualGrowthNotes:Estimated(e)andforecasted(f)valuesaremodeledusingthe2024:Q4LIRA.Historicalaverageannualgrowthisfrom1995to2023.Source:JCHSanalysisofHUD,AmericanHousingSurveys;USDepartmentofCommerce,RetailSalesofBuildingMaterials;USCensusBureau,C-50;USBureauofEconomicAnalysis,DetailedFixedAssetTables;USBureauofLaborStatistics,ConsumerPriceIndex:RentofPrimaryResidence;andLIRA.

Notes:Estimated(e)andforecasted(f)valuesaremodeledusingthe2024:Q4LIRA.Historicalaverageannualgrowthisfrom1995to2023.Source:JCHSanalysisofHUD,AmericanHousingSurveys;USDepartmentofCommerce,RetailSalesofBuildingMaterials;USCensusBureau,C-50;USBureauofEconomicAnalysis,DetailedFixedAssetTables;USBureauofLaborStatistics,ConsumerPriceIndex:RentofPrimaryResidence;andLIRA.JOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGSTUDIESOFHARVARDJOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGSTUDIESOFHARVARDUNIVERSITIMPROVINGAMERICA’SHOUSINGJOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGSTUDIESOFHARVARDUNIVERSITIMPROVINGAMERICA’SHOUSINGIMPROVINGAMERICA’SHOUSINGJOINTCENTERIMPROVINGAMERICA’SHOUSINGJOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGSTUDIESOFHARVARDUNIVERSITkitchenandbathremodels,interiorreplacementsincludingflooring,systemreplacementslikeelectricalandHVAC,anddisasterrepairs—increasedatafasterpacethantheimprovementmarketoverall.Annualspendingonprofessionallyinstalledprojectsgrew14spendingdeclined13percent.DEMOGRAPHICCHANGESTRANSFORMTHEChanginghomeownerdemographicsareimpactingthesizeandcompositionoftheimprovementmarket.oftotalimprovementoutlays,upfrom14percenttwodecadesearlier.Thisgainreflectsthelargeincreaseinthenumberofolderhomeownersandtheconsid-erablegrowthintheiraveragespending.Between2003and2023,thenumberofownersage65andovergrewby12million,pushingtheirshareofownersfrom24percentto34percent.Overthesametime,theiraverageperownerspendingclimbedfromanmorethantwicethe48percentgrowthinpercapitaspendingamongallhomeowners.

Youngerhomeownershavealsoincreasedtheirimprovementspendinginthepastdecade,althoughtheworseninghousingaffordabilitycrisissuppressestheirranksandtheircontributionstotheremodelingmarket.AfterasteepdeclineinthewakeoftheGreatRecession,thenumberofhomeownersunderage35grew15percentto8millionbetween2015and2023,thanduringthemid-2000shousingboom.Whilerealaggregatespendingbyownersunderage35jumped51percentoverthesameperiod,theirmarketexpen-ditureremained14percentbelowthepriorpeak.Astheoverallpopulationbecomesmoreraciallyandethnicallydiverse,householdsheadedbyapersonofcolorcontributemoretothehomeimprovementmarketdespiteenduringdisparitiesinincome,home-ownership,andhomeequity.In2023,homeownersofcoloraccountedfor23percentofaggregateimprovementexpenditures,upfrom14percentin2003.Thiscorrespondedwithanearly9percentagepointincreaseintheshareofhomeownerhouse-holdsheadedbyapersonofcolor.Immigrantownersaccountforagrowingshareofthemarketaswell,upfrom8percentofaggregateimprovementexpen-dituresin2003to13percentin2023.Foreign-

2021年至2023年间，专业安装项目的年度支出在真实意义上增长了14%，而DIY支出下降了13%。2023年，65岁及以上的业主贡献了总改善支出的27%，2014%。这一增长反映了老年业主数量的大幅增加以及他们平均支出的显著增长。在2003年至2023业主份额从24%推高到34%。在同一时期，他们的人均支出从2003年的通货膨胀调整后的1800美元增加到2023年的3800美元——比所有业主的人均支出增长48%还要

贡献。在大衰退之后急剧下降后，2015年至2023年间，35岁以下的房主数量增长了15%，达到800万，但比20002535房主在同期内的实际总支出增长了51%，但他们的市场支出仍比之前的高峰低14%。房屋所有权和房屋净值方面仍然存在差距。2023年，有色人种房主占总体改善支出的23%，比2003年的14%增长9920038202313FigureOwnerOwnerMobilityHasDroppedAfteraPandemic-Induced20032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022NumberofRecentMoversRecentMoverShareofOwners(Rightscale)Notes:Recentmoversboughttheirhomeswithinthepreviousyear.Estimatesfor2020areomittedduetodatacollectionissuesexperiencedduringthepandemic.Source:JCHStabulationsofUSCensusBureau,AmericanCommunitySurvey1-Year

20032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022NumberofRecentMoversRecentMoverShareofOwners(Rightscale)experiencedduringthepandemic.Source:JCHStabulationsofUSCensusBureau,AmericanCommunitySurvey1-Yearownersrepresentmuchlargersharesofmetrohomeimprovementmarketswhereimmigranthouseholdsconstitutegreaterproportionsofhomeowners.Althoughthenumberandshareofhomeownerschangingresidencesincreasedearlyinthepandemic,homeownermobilityhassincedroppedbelowitspre-pandemicrateamidelevatedinterestrates,highAccordingtotheAmericanCommunitySurvey(ACS),thenumberofownerswhomovedinthepreviousyearfellfrom5.7millionto4.7millionbetween2021and2023aftergrowingbyabout800,000householdsbetween2019and2021.Elevatedmortgagerateswilllikelycontinuetoconstrictmobility,leavingmanywould-bebuyersunabletoaffordahomeanddisincentivizingownerswithbelow-marketratesfromselling.Homeownermobilitytypicallyboostsimprovementspendingasownerspreparehomesforsaleandbuyersprioritizeimprovementsduringthefirstyearsafterpurchase.Ownerswhoundertakepre-saleproj-ectstypicallyspendtwiceasmuchasownersoverall,whilerecenthomebuyersconsistentlyoutspendnon-moversbymorethanathird.Accordingly,fallingmobilityratesareexpectedtoreducedemandforthesortsofimprovementsthatoftenaccompanyahomesale.However,underthecurrentcircumstances,theordi-narilynegativeeffectoflowermobilityonhomeimprovementspendingmaybesomewhatoffsetbyotherspendingpatternsthatstemfromthedeclineofhousingturnover.Thatis,ownerswhoremaininimprovementstofacilitatelongertenuresandaddresschangingneeds.Forexample,ownersplan-ningtostayputmaydecidethatanewrooforamoreenergy-efficientHVACsystemisabetterinvestmentmarketforcesremainstobeseen.

AGINGHOUSINGSTOCKCALLSFORREINVESTMENTThehousingstockisolderthaneverbefore.Withamedianageof44yearsin2023,thestockhasagedconsiderablysincetheGreatRecessiondrovehome-buildingtohistoriclows(Figure4).Atthesametime,improvementsinbuildingconstructionstandardsandmaterialshaveextendedthelongevityofhomes,furthercontributingtoaging.Butashomesage,moreimprovementsareneededtoreplaceworncompo-nentsandsystems,suchasroofsandHVAC,inaddi-tiontothestandardmaintenance.In2023,averageperownerimprovementspendingforhomesbuiltbefore1980was24percenthigherthanspendingonhomesbuiltsince2010,andaverageperownermaintenancespendingwas76percenthigher.TheongoingagingofthehousingstockwilldrivestrongrepairandimprovementspendingforyearstoPublicandnonprofitassistanceisalsorequiredtoaddressinadequatehousingconditionsforhouse-holdsthatlacktheresourcestofundneededrepairsandupgrades.Homeownerswithlowerincomesspendmuchlessonimprovementandrepairthantheirhigher-incomecounterparts,whichjeopar-dizessafeandhabitablelivingconditions.In2023,averageperownerimprovementandmaintenancespendingamonghomeownerswithannualhouseholdincomesinthelowestquintile(lessthan$37,500)was$3,100comparedto$10,900amongthosewithincomesinthehighestquintile(morethan$172,000).Consequently,6percentofownerswiththelowestincomesliveinmoderatelyorseverelyinadequatehousingthathasstructuraldeficienciesorlacksbasicfeaturessuchasrunningwater,electricity,andheat,nearlydoubletheshareofownersoverall.Thereisbothamarketopportunityandamoralimperativeforexpandingdirecthomeimprovementandrepairservices,financingtools,andcounselingprogramsthathelptopreservetheaffordablehousingstockandensurethatallhouseholdsliveinsafeandadequatehousing.

流动性自那时以来已降至疫情前的水平（见图3）。根据美国社区调查（ACS），2021年至2023年间，上一年搬家的房主数量从570万下降到470万，而在2019年HVAC系统比临时维修投资更好。这些相互对抗的市场

住房库存比以往任何时候都要老。2023岁，自大衰退迫使住宅建设达到历史低点以来，库存已经显著老龄化（4）。与此同时，建筑构造标准和材料的改进延长了房屋的使用寿命，进一步加剧了老龄化。但是，随着房屋的变老，需要更多的改善来更换磨损的组件HVAC，以及标准维护。2023201024%76%。住房库存的持续老龄化将在未来几年推动强劲的维修和改善支出。还需要公共和非营利机构的援助来解决缺乏资金进行必要维修和升级的家庭的住房条件不足问题。低收入房主的改善和维修支出远低于高收入房主，这威胁到安全和适宜的居住条件。2023（375003100109006FigureFigureFigureFigureJOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGSTUDIESOFHARVARDJOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGSTUDIESOFHARVARDUNIVERSITIMPROVINGAMERICA’SHOUSINGJOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGSTUDIESOFHARVARDUNIVERSITIMPROVINGAMERICA’SHOUSINGIMPROVINGAMERICA’SHOUSINGJOINTCENTERIMPROVINGAMERICA’SHOUSINGJOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGSTUDIESOFHARVARDUNIVERSITTheHousingStockHasAgedMedianAgeofHousingUnits

TheHousingStockHasAgedMedianAgeofHousingUnits Owner-Occupied Renter-Occupied All

Owner-Occupied Renter-Occupied All

Note:AllincludesvacantSource:JCHStabulationsofHUD,AmericanHousing

Note:AllincludesvacantSource:JCHStabulationsofHUD,AmericanHousingIMPROVEMENTSPENDINGInconfrontingglobalclimatechange,theneedtoimprovetheenergyperformanceanddisasterresilienceofthehousingstockgrowsincreasinglyurgent.Themarketforhomeimprovementproj-ectsthatinfluenceandthushavethepotentialtoreducehomeenergyconsumption,suchasroofing,HVAC,andwindows,hasnearlyquadrupledinthelasttwodecadescomparedtoatriplingofoverallspending.SpurredinpartbyincentivesforenergyretrofitsfollowingtheGreatRecession,theshareofaggregatehomeownerspendingonenergy-relatedmorethan7percentagepointsto36percentandhassincemaintainedanelevatedmarketshare.In2023,projectsthataffecthomeenergyuseaccountedforpercentofthenationaltotal.Inaddition,17percentofhomeowners(nearly15millionhouseholds)reportedundertakingoneormoreprojectsintheprevioustwoyearsexplicitlytoimproveenergyefficiency.Furtherincreasesinenergy-relatedremodelingare

taxcredits.In2023,thefirstfullyearthatthelaw’scleanenergyandenergy-efficienthomeimprove-menttaxcreditswereavailable,morethan3.4milliontaxfilersclaimedthesecreditsforsuchprojectsasrooftopsolarinstallations,insulation,windows,andelectricheatpumps.Thesefilingsindicategrowingconsumerinterestinanddemandforenergy-relatedupgrades.Evenwiththeincreasedspending,muchofthehousingstockstillrequiresextensiveretrofitstoimprovehomeenergyperformance.Housingisalsoimpactedbythechangingclimatethroughthegrowingfrequencyandintensityofhazardeventslikehurricanes,tornadoes,wildfires,andflooding.Homeownerspendingfordisasterrepairshastrendedupinallregionsofthecountry,totaling$49billionin2022–2023,ascomparedto$16billionin2002–2003afteradjustingforinflation(Figure5).AggregatespendinggrowthhasbeenespeciallystrongintheNortheast,buttheSouthandtheWesthavealsohadabove-averagegains.Meanwhile,disasterrepairspendingasashareofnationalimprovementexpendituresincreasedfromanaverageof4.4percentinthedecadebefore2004to6.4percentinthedecadesince2013.

改造激励措施，2009年至2011年间，家庭主人在能73620231400占全国总量的34%。此外，17%的家庭主人在过去两年中2022

《税收减免法案》（IRA），包括住宅翻新退税和税收抵免。2023年，该法案的清洁能源和节能住宅改善税收抵免首次可用，超过340万纳税人申报了这些抵免，用于屋顶地房主的灾害修复支出呈上升趋势，2022‑2023年总额达到490亿美元，而经通胀调整后，2002‑2003年的总额160（5）。综合支出增长在东北部尤为强20044%上升到2013年之后的6.4FigureSpendingforDisasterRepairsIsTrendingUpAcrosstheDisasterRepairSpending(Billionsof2023

FigureDisasterRepairSpending(Billionsof2023 WestWest2002–20032004–20052006–2007

MidwestSouth

ShareofTotalImprovementSpending(Rightscale)

MidwestSouth WestShareofTotalImprovementSpending(Rightscale)Notes:Disasterrepairsareasubsetofimprovementspendingonowner-occupiedhomes.ExpendituresareadjustedforinflationusingtheCPI-UforAllItems.Source:JCHStabulationsofHUD,AmericanHousing

Notes:Disasterrepairsareasubsetofimprovementspendingonowner-occupiedhomes.ExpendituresareadjustedforinationusingtheCPI-UforAllItems.Source:JCHStabulationsofHUD,AmericanHousingTheneedremainsfordisastermitigationretrofitsthatmakehomesmoreresilientagainstweather-andclimate-relatedhazardsandreducefuturedamage.winds,elevatingmechanicalequipmentsuchasHVACandwaterheatersorentirehomesabovefloodlevels,andreplacingexteriormaterialswithnoncombustiblealternatives.Althoughfewhomeownersundertakemitigationprojects,thereareincreasingmotivatorstodoso,includingskyrocketinghazardinsurancepremiums.Thenationalaveragehomeownerinsur-ancepremiumjumped17percentbetween2021and(AHS).Risinginsurancecostsaswellasincreasingdisasterexposurewillalmostcertainlydrivegrowthinthedisastermitigationmarket.SUPPLY-SIDECHALLENGESDespitegrowingconcentrationamonglarger-scalefirmsandnotableprivateequityinvestment,mergers,andacquisitions,theresidentialremodelingindustryremainshighlyfragmented,withlargesharesofself-employedcontractorsandsmallpayrollbusi-nesses.Nearlytwo-thirdsofgeneralremodelingcontractorswithpayrollshadrevenuesofless

$500,000atlastmeasurein2017.Consequently,theremodelingsectorsuffershighratesofbusinessclos-ingsevenduringstrongmarkets.Thetypicalgeneralremodelingbusinessemploysfewerthanfourstaff,evenasthenumberoftheseestablishmentswithpayrollshasgrownrapidlysincetheGreatRecession.Thisongoingfragmentationhindersthecapacityofprofessionalcontractorstomeetdemand.Theremodelingindustryisfurtherconstrainedbytheandlaborsincethepandemic.Shortagesoflaboralsoworkerssuchascarpenters,masons,electricians,andplumbers,accordingtotheNationalAssociationofHomeBuilders(NAHB)(Figure6).Theconstructionmanyyears,withimmigrantsaccountingforarecord-breaking34percentoftheskilledtradeslaborforceinandfemaleworkers,aswellasnon-Hispanicpeopleoftheworkforce,butmoremustbedonetomeetcurrentandfuturelaborneeds.

将机械设备如HVAC和水加热器或整个住宅提升到洪水水包括飙升的灾害保险费率。根据美国住房调查（AHS），20212023

截至2017年最后一次测量，金额为50万美元。因此，即根据美国住宅建筑商协会（NAHB）的数据，2015年2023（如木匠、者，2023年移民占熟练工种劳动力总数的创纪录的34%。FigureFigureFigureFigureJOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGSTUDIESOFHARVARDJOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGSTUDIESOFHARVARDUNIVERSITIMPROVINGAMERICA’SHOUSINGJOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGSTUDIESOFHARVARDUNIVERSITIMPROVINGAMERICA’SHOUSINGIMPROVINGAMERICA’SHOUSINGJOINTCENTERIMPROVINGAMERICA’SHOUSINGJOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGSTUDIESOFHARVARDUNIVERSITMostRemodelersContinuetoExperienceSkilledTradeLaborShareofRemodelersReportingSomeorSeriousShortagesofSubcontractorLabor

ShareofRemodelersReportingSomeorSeriousShortagesofSubcontractorLabor

Note:Dataareaveragesofthefollowingtrades:roughandfinishedcarpenters,electricians,excavators,framingcrews,roofers,plumbers,masons,painters,weatherizationworkers,andHVACworkers.Source:JCHStabulationsofNationalAssociationofHomeBuilders/WestlakeRoyal,RemodelingMarket

Note:Dataareaveragesofthefollowingtrades:roughandnishedcarpenters,electricians,excavators,framingcrews,roofers,plumbers,masons,painters,weatherizationworkers,andHVACworkers.Source:JCHStabulationsofNationalAssociationofHomeBuilders/WestlakeRoyal,RemodelingMarketInvestmentsinconstructionresearchanddevelop-mentholdpromiseforbothdecreasingthecostsandincreasingtheproductivityofthecurrentlaborforce.elingandrepairhavebeenminimal.Advancementsinpredictivetechnologiesthatusedatafromsensorsorpropertyinspectionstoidentifyneededrepairsorimprovementsarepromisingforexpandingdemand.Buttheremodelingindustry’scapacitytoinvestintheseandothertechnologies,trainings,orbuildingconstructionandmaterialinnovationsislimitedbyitshighfragmentation.THEInthenearterm,theremodelingindustryfacesbothchallengesandopportunities.Ontheonehand,elevatedinterestrates,weakhomesales,highlaborandmaterialcosts,andapersistentshortageofskilledlaborareexpectedtoconstrainthemarket.Atthesametime,massivelevelsofhomeequity,

sustainedshifttowardworkingfromhome,favor-abledemographics,andtheagingofthehousingstockwillsupportsignificantinvestmentinhomeimprovementsandmaintenance,perhapsmostnotablyamongownerswhoprioritizeupdatingtheirexistinghomesovermoving.Theremodelingmarkethasfurtheropportunitiestoadapthomestoaddressdeficienciesinaccessibility,energyefficiency,anddisasterresilience.Giventhestrongfoundationandgrowingneeds,resi-dentialremodelingisexpectedtoremainaformidableeconomicsector.Improvementsandrepairstotheexistinghousingstockhaveconstitutedamajorityanunforeseenboominhomebuilding,thistrendisanticipatedtolast.Homeimprovementandrepairspendingislikelytoremainneartherecentpeakandthereforeshouldcontinuetoplayasignificantroleinresidentialinvestments.

Theresidentialremodelingmarketsoaredtonewheightsinthewakeofthepandemic,drivenbystronggainsinboththenumberofpropertyownerspursuingprojectsandaveragespendinglevels.Expendi-turesforimprovementsandrepairstoowner-occupiedandrentalpropertiestopped$600billionin2022.Thoughtheremodelingmarketcooledin2023,spendinglevelsremainedelevatedasowners“lockedinplace”byhighinterestratesandhomepricesundertookprojectstomeettheirchangingneedsoverlongertenures.Withthephenomenalgrowthinrenovationandrepairspending,themarkethasfarsurpassedthepriormid-2000speak,evenafteradjustingforconsiderablepriceinflation.

2022年，业主自住和出租物业的改善和维修支出超过了6000亿美元。尽管2023年翻新市场有所降温，但由于高利率和房价，业主锁定位置”，支出水平仍然很高，他们进行了项目以满足长期需求的变化。随着翻新和维修支出的惊人增长，市场已经远远超过了调整后的2000年代中期峰值。REMODELINGMARKETSINTRANSITIONPANDEMICFUELSUNPRECEDENTEDSPENDINGREMODELINGMARKETSINTRANSITIONThedramaticimpactsofthepandemiconhouseholdpreferences,behaviors,andhousingwealthresultedinenormousinvestmentinimprovementsandrepairstotheexistinghousingstock.Spendinginthehomeremodelingmarketskyrocketed51percentfrom$404latestestimatesfromtheCenter.Thiswasanaverageannualgainof10.8percent—morethantwicethemarket’shistoricalaverageof4.2percentfro