2024欧盟电池储能发展新机遇研究报告：可再生清洁能源灵活结合的系统效益281mb

EUbatterystorageisreadyforitsmoment

inthe

sunCoupling

renewables

and

clean

flexibility

growth,

the

EU

can

benefit

fromabundanthome-grownwindandsolar,reducedependenceonimportedfossilenergy,andavoid

costs.Publisheddate:26September

2024Lead

author:

Dr.

Beatrice

Petrovich,

Harriet

Fox,

Dr.

Chris

Rosslowe1Contents

Executive

Summary

Moreflexibilitybrings

benefits

Renewables

and

clean

flexibility

are

a

perfect

match

The

EU

cannot

afford

to

delay

clean

flexibility

deployment

More

hours

already

powered

by

wind

and

solar

in

the

EU

Pairingsolarwith

batteries

An

opportunity

for

batteries

emerges

as

solar

booms

Batteries

can

reduce

evening

fossil

reliance

Recommendations

Supporting

Materials

Methodology

AcknowledgementsAboutThisreportanalysesthesystembenefitsofcouplingrenewableswithcleanflexibility,withafocus

on

the

opportunity

for

pairing

solar

electricity

generation

and

battery

storage

in

the

EU.UsingEmber’sdatasetonhourlygenerationmixandpowerpricesintheEU,theanalysisdemonstratesthatmiddaysolarabundanceisavaluableresource.Itillustratestheopportunity

for

clean

flexibility

to

reduce

the

EU’s

fossil

dependance

and

avoid

energy

costs.It

concludes

with

recommendations

for

next

steps

on

clean

flexibility

in

the

EU

to

keep

pacewithambitiousdecarbonisationgoals,withafocusondeployingbatterystorageimmediately.2Highlights€9bn

80%36

GWhIn

2030,

the

EU

could

avoidgascostsworth€9bnbycapturingexcesswindandsolar.BetweenAugust2023andJuly2024,nineEU

countriessawsolaraloneexceeding80%

oftheirhourlydomesticdemand.Germanycouldhaveavoided36GWhofexpensivefossilpowerandupto€2.5mnfuelcostsinJune2024alonewith2GWmoreofadditional

batteries.3Executive

SummaryMoreflexibilitybrings

benefitsWith

faster

clean

flexibility

rollout,

the

EU

can

get

home-grown

cheaprenewablepoweraroundthe

clock.Apowersystembackedbyrenewableswillneedtobeflexibleandresponsive.Whilerenewable

shares

are

quickly

growing

across

theEU,

measures

to

provide

that

flexibility

havenotyetbeenequallyplannedfororimplemented.NowisthetimeforallMemberStatestogivestrongpolicysignalsandremoveexistingbarrierstoswiftlydeploycleanflexibilitysolutions

alongside

new

and

existing

wind

and

solar

capacity.Theopportunityisparticularlyclearforpairingsolarwithbatterystorage,takingadvantageof

their

mutually

reinforcing

business

cases.

Years

of

strong

solar

growth

and

high

gas

priceshaveincreasedelectricitypricevolatilityacrosstheEU,strengtheningopportunitiesforbatterystorage.

In

turn,

batteries

can

increase

power

demand

at

peak

solar

times,

supporting

solarrevenues.

If

existing

barriers

to

the

deployment

of

battery

storage

are

removed,

countries

canshift

abundant

and

cheap

solar

power

beyond

sunny

hours

and

reduce

reliance

on

expensivefossil

fuels.

01

EU

countries

could

save

€9bn

in

gascosts

by

capturing

excess

wind

andsolarBy

2030,

wind

and

solar

power

could

exceed

domestic

demand

by

183

TWhacrossallEUcountries,equivalenttotheannualpowerconsumptionofPoland.

If

EU

countries

were

to

deploy

flexibility

solutions,

such

as

batteriesandinterconnectors,theycouldshiftthisexcesscleanpowertoreplacefossilgasgeneration.Doingsowouldavoidgaspurchasecostsworth€9billion

annually.4

02

Solar

surpasses

80%

of

demand

atpeakhoursinnine

countriesBetweenAugust2023andJuly2024,nineEUcountriessawsolarsharepeakingatorabove80%oftheirhourlypowerdemand,includingtheNetherlands

and

Greece

where

solar

generation

at

times

surpassed

100%of

demand.

03

Germany

could

have

avoided

up

to€2.5mn

fuel

costs

in

June

alone

with2GW

additionalbatterystorageIf

Germany

had

an

additional

2

GW

(+20%)

of

battery

capacity

in

operationinJune2024,theabilitytoshiftmiddaysolarpowertotheeveningcouldhavedisplaced36GWhoffossilpower.Dependingonwhichfuelwasdisplaced,thiswouldhaveavoided€1.3millioninhardcoalcostsor€2.5millioninfossilgas

costs.5”Itjustmakessensetocaptureallthelow-costrenewablepowerwecan.Assolarcontinuestosoar,batterieswillhelpensurethatabundantpowercanbeusedatallhours.WhiletheEU’srenewablesscale-uphasbeenrapidandambitious,

the

same

focus

on

clean

flexibility

is

still

lacking.

This

needs

to

beaddressed,andquickly,forconsumersandbusinessestofeelthebenefitsofreducingfossil

dependence.”Beatrice

PetrovichSeniorEnergyand

ClimateAnalyst,Ember6Moreflexibilitybrings

benefitsRenewablesare

growing,flexibilitymustgrow

tooWithinthenextsixyears,windandsolargenerationwillsurpassEUdemandincertainhoursoftheyear.Beingabletoshiftthatpowertowhere

and

when

it

can

be

used

through

clean

flexibility

solutions

is

anenormous

opportunity.Renewables

and

clean

flexibility

are

a

perfectmatchAs

wind

and

solar

grow

rapidly

in

theEU,

a

swift

scale-up

of

clean

flexibility

will

be

needed

toenabledecarbonisationacrossthesystem.Flexibilitycanincludeanymeasurestomatchsupplyanddemand,includinggridconnections,demandsideflexibility,pumpedhydrostorageandbatterystorage.Thesesolutionshelpshiftpowergenerationorconsumptionacrosstimeorgeographies,helpingbalancethegridwhenweather-dependentgenerationsuch

as

wind

and

solar

either

exceeds

or

falls

short

of

electricity

demand.The

EU

cannot

afford

to

delay

clean

flexibilitydeploymentTheswitchtoapredominantlyrenewablesystemisalreadyracingaheadintheEU,withprogresssettocontinueaccordingtotargetsandplanssetoutbytheEUandnationalgovernments.

Draft

National

Energy

and

Climate

Plans

(NECPs)

signal

an

intent

totripleEU7solarcapacityanddoubleEUwindcapacity(from2022levels)andreacha66%renewableshare

in

the

yearly

generation

mix

by

2030,

just

short

of

ambitious

targets

in

the

REPowerEUplan.AlargerEUsolarandwindfleetmeansthatwithinthenextsixyearsrenewablepowerwillbecomeabundantatcertaintimesinmanycountries.Thisdynamicwillarrivequickly,makingplanningforitnowcritical.Accordingtothelatestofficialtargets

andEmber’ssimulationsfortheyear2030,solarandwindareexpectedtomeetonaverage49%oftotalEUdemandonanhourlybasis,whichisalmosttwicetheiraveragecontributionin2023(27%).Moreover,hourswithahighcontributionfromsolarandwindwilloccurmuchmorefrequently;theywillgeneratemoreelectricitythantheEU’stotaldemandinanestimated4%of

hours,

and

will

exceed

more

than

half

of

EU

power

demand

in

35%

of

hours,

up

from

3%

ofhours

in

2023.

This

will

represent

an

entirely

new

dynamic

in

the

EU’s

power

system.8PlentifulrenewablegenerationwillbeanenormousresourcefortheEU,butitrequirescareful

system

planning

now

to

fully

capture

the

benefits.

Ember

modelling

suggests

that

in2030,

wind

and

solar

power

could

exceed

demand

across

all

individual

Member

States

by

atotalof183TWh,whichisequivalenttothepowerconsumptionofPolandin2023andaround40%oflastyear’stotalEUfossilgasgeneration.IfEUcountriesweretoshiftthisexcessentirelyintime,usingstorage,orspace,usinginterconnectors,toreplacefossilgasgeneration,

they

would

reduce

their

reliance

on

imported

gas

and

avoid

gas

purchase

costsworth€9

billion.9More

hours

already

powered

by

wind

andsolarinthe

EUPlanningformorecleanflexibilitynowcanacceleratethetrendtowardsEUindependencefromfossilpower.TheunprecedentedgrowthofwindandsolarinrecentyearshasalreadyreducedtheshareoffossilfuelsintheEUelectricitysupplytoitslowestever

level.Fossilfuelsgenerated17%lessinthefirsthalfof2024comparedtothesameperiodin2023,falling

to

27%

of

generation

and

lagging

behind

wind

and

solar

which

generated

30%.

Solar

inparticularhasexperiencedremarkablegrowth,withcapacityadditionsgrowing

bymorethan40%

for

three

consecutive

years

between

2021-2023.WithmorewindandsolarinoperationacrosstheEU,thesesourcesarealreadydominatingpoweroutputatcertaintimesoftheyearatbothEUandnationallevels,leavinglessspacefor

expensive

fossil

power

in

the

mix.

In

the

twelve

months

to

July

2024

(inclusive),

wind

andsolarproducedmorethanhalfofEUpowerin7%ofhours,upfromjust2%ofhoursinthetwelvemonthsprior.Inthesameperiod,solarandwindcoveredaminimumof6%ofEUelectricity

demand

across

all

hours.

Their

maximum

share

was

much

higher,

reaching

almosttwo

thirds

(64%)

of

total

EU

electricity

demand.Therisetodominanceofwindandsolarisparticularlystarkincountriesalreadyundergoingasolarboom.Forexample,inGermanyinthetwelvemonthstoJuly2024,windandsolarprovided

the

majority

of

power

generation

in

36%

of

hours,

up

from

26%

in

the

twelve

monthsprior.Thesamefigureincreasedfrom26%to38%inGreece,from31%to44%intheNetherlands,andfrom7%to16%inHungary—wheregrowthisduetosolaraloneasinstalledwindcapacityremainsamongthelowestintheEU.BetweenAugust2023andJuly2024,fifteenEUcountriessawwindandsolarsharepeakingatabove80%oftheirhourlypower

demand.本报告来源于三个皮匠报告站（）,由用户Id:349461下载,文档Id:615303,下载日期:2025-03-071011A

lack

of

system

flexibility

is

already

holding

back

wind

and

solar

progressInsummer2024,EUwindandsolarcontributionwasparticularlystrongduringdaylighthours.InJuneandJuly,solarandwindgenerationmadeupatleast20%ofEUdemandbetween

7am

and

4pm,

reaching

peaks

of

over

60%.

As

a

result,

reliance

on

fossil

power

hasfallenquicklyduringdaylighthours,butremainsrelativelyhighduringearlymorningsandevenings.

In

Germany,

for

example,

the

average

share

of

fossil

power

at

1pm

in

the

month

ofJulyalmosthalvedfrom36%to20%between2021and2024,whereastheshareoffossilpower

at

8pm

only

went

from

47%

to

44%.Increasing

cleanflexibility,

in

particular

energy

storage,

would

remedy

this.

This

would

enablespreadingsummersolarpeaksintosummereveningswhererelianceonfossilpowertendsto

be

relatively

high

due

to

weak

wind

conditions.12Fossil

reliance

at

time

of

peak

solar

production

could

be

even

lower

if

the

power

system

wasmoreagile.Evenattimesofabundantrenewables,fossilpowerplantsoftencontinuegenerating.

In

some

cases

this

leads

to

curtailment

of

renewable

sources,

such

as

in

Poland.Somefossilplantsareforcedtomaintainproductionastheyaretechnicallyunabletorampupanddownquickly,orbecausenetworkoperatorsrequirethemforancillaryservices.InGermanyforexample,fossilgenerationveryrarelydropsbelow10GW,evenduringperiodsofnegativeelectricity

prices.Progressiveapproachestakenbysomegridoperatorssuggestthatmorecanbedonetoraisetheinstantaneousshareofrenewablesthatcanbeacceptedintothesystem.Forinstance,

the

Irish

network

operator

plans

to

raise

the

technical

cap

for

wind

and

solar

share13of

generation

to

95%.

Others

such

as

PSE,

the

Polish

grid

operator,

are

more

conservative,and

l

imit

solar

and

wind

once

they

reach

around

55-60%

of

the

country’s

electricity

mix

atanygiven

time.14Pairingsolarwith

batteriesBatteriescanhelpcapture

thebenefitsofrising

renewablesRenewables

are

already

growing

swiftly

in

the

EU,

particularly

solar.Batteries

will

play

a

crucial

role

in

keeping

that

momentum

going.While

all

types

of

flexibility

solutions

will

be

needed

for

an

effective

system,

batteries

are

aready-to-deploytechnologythatcouldscalequickly,offeringimmediatecostbenefitsandimprovementsto

security.Batterieshaveseendramatic

costreductions

inrecentyears,drivenbyanincreaseinproductionforelectricvehicles.Inthepowersystem,theycanbedeployedatgrid-scale,connectedtothetransmissiongrid,oratsmallerscaleinaresidentialorcommercialbuilding

to

enhance

consumption

of

energy

produced

on

site

(known

as

behind-the-metre).

Acombinationofgrid-scalebatteryandutilitysolarcannowproduceelectricitymorecheaplythancoal-orgas-firedpowerplants,accordingtoarecentstudyofgenerationcosts

inGermany.Batterystorageisausefulinterventionforshiftingpoweracrossshortperiodsoftime:batteriescanstoreelectricitywhenwindandsolargenerationishigh,andmakethatpoweravailable

when

there

is

more

demand.

Solar

has

predictable

peaks

and

troughs

in

generation,acrossbothseasonsandtimesofday.Thismakesthecombinationofsolarwithbatterystorageparticularlyeffectiveatredistributingsolarpowerthroughouttheday,smoothingmismatches

in

supply

and

demand

and

reducing

the

need

for

fossil

power.Currently,mostinstalledbatteriesinEuropearedesignedtochargeanddischargeoverrelatively

short

time

scales.

By

the

end

of

2023,

the

16

GW

of

batteries

operating

across

theEUcouldstoreabout23GWhofpower,meaningan

averageduration

ofabout1.5hoursifcharging/dischargingatfullpower.However,batteries’durationandtheirperformanceoverlongertimeframeshasbeenimproving,with2-hourdurationprojectsbecomingcommonover

the

last

two

years

and

4-hour

duration

expected

in

the

short-term

future

across

Europe.New

storage

tenders

are

creating

demand

for

projects

up

to

8-hour

duration.15An

opportunity

for

batteries

emerges

as

solarboomsIt

is

essential

that

Member

States

start

planning

how

to

integrate

rapidly

growing

volumes

ofsolargeneration,andbatterieswillbeakeypartofthis.Inmultiplecountries,duringthesunniest

hours,

solar

alone

is

already

approaching

or

matching

100%

of

power

demand.Between

August

2023

and

July

2024,

nine

EU

countries

saw

peak

solar

shares

above

80%

oftheirpowerdemand.Infact,incertainhoursinGreeceandtheNetherlands,solaroutstripped

demand,

with

others

such

as

Spain

and

Hungary

reaching

over

90%.Duringthesehighsolargenerationhours,itisnotjustsolaronthesystem.Additionalsupplyalsocomesfrommust-rungeneratorssuchasCHPplants,othernon-dispatchablerenewablessuchaswindandrun-of-riverhydro,andlargeinflexiblenuclearunits.Thismeans

that

often

during

these

times

there

are

low

or

negative

prices

on

the

system

and

highvolumes

of

exports

to

neighbouring

countries

as

power

flows

from

regions

of

lower

to

higherprices.16ZeroandnegativepricesarebecomingmorecommonacrossEuropeandhavehappenedvirtually

everywhere

in

the

EU

in

the

last

12

months.

Nowhere

is

this

trend

more

visible

thanin

Spain,

which

in

the

first

half

of

2024

experienced

zero

or

negative

prices

in

14%

of

hours,comparedtojust1%ofhoursinthefirsthalfof2023.IntheNetherlands,July2024sawarecord12%ofhourswithzeroornegativeprices,whichoccurredmostfrequentlyat2pm.This

is

more

than

in

winter

2023-24,

when

zero

or

negative

prices

occurred

on

averagefor

3%

of

hours

and

almost

exclusively

at

night.

Although

the

causes

of

negative

prices

canbe

complex

and

varied,

booming

solar

is

playing

a

role

in

many

countries.17Lowandnegativepricesdetrimentallyimpactthebusinesscaseforsolar,reducingtherevenuesthatsolarproducersreceiveforsellingtheirpoweronthemarket.Thisdeclineinutility

solar

capture

rates

–

the

price

received

for

solar

electricity

compared

to

the

baseloadprice

–

is

a

phenomenon

which

is

set

to

worsen

if

more

solar

is

added

to

the

system

withlimited

growth

inflexibility,especially

amid

a

slow

recovery

in

power

demand.Incontrasttoverylowandnegativepricesinthecentralpartoftheday,inJuneandJuly2024manyEUcountriessawextremepowerpricespikesintheevenings.Inthesummerevenings

when

fossil

power

reliance

is

still

high,

electricity

tends

to

be

more

expensive.

Thelink

between

p

ower

prices

and

fossil

fuel

prices

exposes

consumers

and

businesses

to

theprice

of

imported

fossil

gas,

which

is

highly

susceptible

to

geopolitics

and

global

events.18Thedifferenceinpricesbetweenmiddayandevenings,alsoknownaspricespreads,weresignificantlyhigherinsummer2024thansummer2023,especiallywheresolargrowthhasbeen

strong.

In

Greece

and

Hungary,

like

other

countries

in

Southern

and

Eastern

Europe,

theincrease

in

spreads

has

been

particularly

extreme,going

from

€71/MWh

to

€262/MWh,

and€102/MWhto

€397/MWh.Thiswideningofpricespreadswithinthedaystrengthensthebusinesscaseforbatterystorage

that

can

earn

revenues

from

price

arbitrage

(buying

low

cost

power

and

selling

whenpricesarehigher).Suchbatterybehaviourcanlowerpeakpowerpricesbyprovidingincreasedcompetitiontoflexiblegasassets,whilealsoreducingrelianceonfossilpowerattimesofpeakdemand.Morebatterieswillalsoincreasepowerdemandatpeaksolartimes,supporting

solar

capture

rates

and

the

business

case

for

investing

in

solar

capacity.As

an

increase

in

storage

capacity

causes

the

price

profile

to

flatten,

the

drop

in

revenuesavailabletobatteriesfromarbitragecanbecompensatedbyrevenuesforthemultipleservicesthatbatteriescanofferforsystemoperation(suchasfastresponsefrequencyreserve).1920Batteries

can

reduce

evening

fossil

relianceCaliforniaprovidesacompelling

example

ofhowbatteriescanlowerdependenceonfossilfuelsattimesoflowrenewableoutputandhighdemand.Batterycapacitywasexpandedthirteen-fold

in

five

years,

reaching

10

GW

in

April

2024,

and

has

reshaped

the

way

the

grid

ispowered.TheroleofgasintheeveningpeakinApril2024hasbeenroughlyhalvedcomparedtoApril

2021.Europe

could

follow

the

same

path

to

reduce

its

reliance

on

imported

fossil

fuels.

Batterieshave

been

growing

rapidly

in

recent

years

in

the

EU.

However,

capacity

is

c

oncentrated

in

asmallnumberof

countries.Germany,inparticular,istheEUfrontrunner,accountingfor46%oftotalEUbatterycapacityby

the

end

of

2023

and

with

9.5

GW

installed

by

June

2024.

Germany

could

boost

its

batterycapacityupto11.4GWbytheendof2024underthebestcasescenariosofpolicysupportand

financial

conditions,

based

on

Ember’s

estimations

and

market

forecasts.

If

such

batterycapacityhadalreadybeeninstalledthissummer,Germanycouldhavedisplaced36GWhofexpensivefossilpowerduringeveningpeaksinJunealone.Hardcoal,usuallythemostexpensivegeneratorinGermany,couldhavebeencompletelykickedoutofthemixin12hours,reducingpricesduringthemostexpensivehoursoftheday.Thisavoidedfossilfuelelectricityproductioncouldhavesaved€1.3millioninhardcoalimportsor€2.5millioninfossil

gas

imports,

depending

on

which

fuel

was

displaced.21RecommendationsCleanflexibilityshouldbe

swiftlydeployedto

complementrenewablesImproved

policy

frameworks

for

flexibility

solutions

can

help

capture

thebenefits

of

fast-growing

wind

and

solar.Thegrowthofwindandsolarishappeningfastandissettoaccelerate.Withadequategrowth

in

electricity

storage,

demand

side

flexibility

and

cross-border

interconnectivity

tohelptakeadvantageofabundanthome-growncleanpower,theEUcouldreducefossildependance,avoidcostlyenergyimports,andprotectconsumersandbusinessesfromvolatileinternationalenergy

prices.Batteries,

in

particular,

are

a

ready-to-deploy

tool

to

harness

the

huge

resource

of

middaysolar,

as

well

as

being

faster

and

cheaper

to

deploy

than

alternatives

such

as

gas

peakerplantsorgrid

interconnections.The

business

cases

for

solar

and

batteries

are

mutually

reinforcing.

Increased

price

volatility,exacerbated

by

years

of

strong

solar

growth

and

high

gas

prices,

has

increased

the

ability

ofbatterystoragetoearnrevenuethroughpricearbitrage.Inturn,batterieswillincreasepowerdemand

at

peak

solar

times,

supporting

solar

capture

rates

and

smoothing

price

extremes.Batteries

are

growing

strongly

in

some

countries

but

not

in

others.

Solar,

by

comparison,

isgrowingquicklyeverywhere.StrongerpolicysignalsandearlyplanningcanacceleratethegrowthofbatteriesacrosstheEU,bringingforwardtheeconomic,securityandclimatebenefitsoftheenergy

transition.The

Strategic

agenda

for

the

new

EU

mandate

is

a

good

step

in

this

direction,

as

it

plans

forambitious

electrification

and

investment

in

grids,

storage

and

interconnections.

The

political

priorities

of

the

newly

designated

EU

Commission

also

include

scaling-up

investments

ingrid

infrastructure

and

storage

capacity.

The

following

recommendations

can

provide22guidance

for

EU

policymakers

looking

to

accelerate

clean

flexibility

deployment

andinvestments.Key

recommendationsRemovebarrierstoco-locationofbatterieswith

renewablesAsimplewaytostartplanningforcleanflexibilityistoconsiderthepotentialforco-locationofsolarwithbatteries.Thisshouldbeunlockedbyremovingexistingregulatorybarriersandimprovingsystem

planning.Itshouldbemadeeasierforsolarandbatteriestobeinstalledbehindthesamegridconnectionpoint,forinstancebyactingonthegridconnectionrulesorconsideringtargetedandacceleratedgridconnectionaccessforco-locatedbatterieswherethegridis

congested.Co-locatedbatterystorageshouldbeconsideredinspatialplanningandpermitting,includingwhenidentifyingrenewableacceleration

areas.Gridoperatorsshouldmakeavailablegranularandtimelydataonthestatusofthegrid.Lackofinformationcandelaythemuchneededinvestmentdecisions.Keydataconcernsstoragecapacityandutilisation,gridcapacities,gridconnectionqueuesandrenewablecurtailment.

Gridhostingcapacitymaps

areaneffectivewaytocommunicatesuch

information.Implementnationalcleanflexibilitystrategiesearly,startingwithNECPsClear

policy

signals

for

accelerated

deployment

of

flexibility

are

still

limited

in

many

NECPs.MostreviseddraftNECPsdonotprovidedetailsoffutureflexibilitystrategiesandtargets.Thisgapshouldbeswiftlyaddressed,sincecountrieswithanearlycleanflexibilityneedsassessment

and

ta