2025年技术与创新报告：以包容性人工智能促进发展（英文）

UNITED

NATIONS

CONFERENCE

ON

TRADE

AND

DEVELOPMENT2025Technologyand

Innovation

ReportInclusiveArtificial

Intelligence

for

DevelopmentGeneva,2025©AdobeStockNewYork,

NewYork

10017United

States

of

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East42nd

StreetKenny

Shui

and

Alex

Mak

(Our

Hong

Kong

Foundation)

provided

substantive

inputs,

andDaniel

Vertesy

(International

Telecommunication

Union)

and

Uma

Rami

(International

LabourOrganization)

made

additional

contributions.Research

support

was

provided

by

Claire

Hodges,

Ivan

Napoli,ShubhikaTagore,

Sichen

Zhouand

Tao

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during

their

internship

at

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and

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of

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furthercontributions.UNCTAD

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acknowledges

the

valuable

comments

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suggestions

received

from

experts

who

attended

informal

expert

consultations

and

external

peer

review

meetings.Theexperts

included:Andrea

Filippetti

(National

Research

Council

of

Italy),

Carlo

Pietrobelli

(Roma

Tre

University),

Carsten

Fink

(World

Intellectual

Property

Organization),

Fernando

Santiago(United

Nations

Industrial

Development

Organization),

Francesco

Rentocchini

(Joint

ResearchCentre,

European

Commission),

Hélène

Dernis

(Organisation

for

Economic

Co-operation

andDevelopment),

Hiwot

Tesfaye

(Microsoft),Jacob

Rubæk

Holm

(Aalborg

University),JoannaBryson(HertieSchoolofGovernance),Juana

Rosa

Kuramoto

Huamán

(Technological

InstituteofProductionofPeru),KevinKohler

(Simon

Institutefor

LongtermGovernance),

LudovicoAlcorta

and

Nanditha

Mathew

(United

Nations

University–Maastricht

Economic

and

Social

ResearchInstituteonInnovationandTechnology),SandroMontresor(UniversityofTrento),VirginiaDignum(Umeå

University)

andXiaolan

Fu

(Oxford

University).Written

commentsfromAndreas

Krause(Federal

Institute

ofTechnologyZurich)and

DameWendy

Hall

(Universityof

Southampton)

are

acknowledgedwithappreciation.The

report

also

benefited

from

comments

provided

by

different

UNCTAD

divisions,

as

part

ofan

internal

peer

review

process,aswellascontributions

and

commentsfrom

the

Office

of

theSecretary-Generalof

UNCTAD.The

manuscript

was

edited

by

Peter

Stalker.

Cover

design

and

desktop

publishing

were

undertaken

by

Magali

Studer,

under

the

coordination

of

the

UNCTAD

Communication

andExternal

Relations

team

led

byAmalia

Navarro.

Overall

production

at

UNCTAD

was

overseenby

Maritza

Ascencios

of

the

Intergovernmental

Outreach

and

Support

Service.

Malou

Pasinosprovidedadministrativesupport.iiiTechnologyand

Innovation

Report2025InclusiveArtificial

Intelligencefor

DevelopmentAcknowledgementsTheTechnology

andInnovationReport2025:Inclusive

ArtificialIntelligencefor

Developmentwas

preparedbyWaiKit(Jackie)SiTouandAntonioVezzani,underthesupervisionofAngelGonzález

Sanz,

Head

ofTechnology,

Innovation

and

Knowledge

Development

Branch

of

UNCTAD.The

report

was

initiated

under

the

guidance

of

Shamika

N.

Sirimane,

Director

ofthe

Division

onTechnology

and

Logistics.Technologyand

Innovation

Report2025InclusiveArtificial

Intelligencefor

DevelopmentTableofcontentsAcknowledgements

iiiForeword

xiAbbreviations

xiiNotesxiiiChapter

IAI

at

the

technology

frontier1A.

Rapid

expansion

of

frontier

technologies5The

market

potential

for

frontier

technologies

5The

market

dominance

of

tech

giants

7B.

Concentration

of

research

and

development

8C.Asymmetries

in

knowledge

creation

10D.

Evolution

of

AI12E.

Synergy

between

AI

and

other

technologies

17A

fifth

industrial

revolution

19F.The

AI

divide

21Supercomputers

and

data

centres

21Services

providers

22Investment

22Knowledge

creation

23G.Navigating

the

report

24Annex

I

25References

30Chapter

IILeveraging

AI

for

productivity

and

workers’empowerment.33A.AI

can

transform

production

36B.

Key

channels

for

impacting

productivity

and

the

workforce

37C.

Measuring

the

impacts38Will

AI

increase

productivity?38Many

more

occupations

are

exposed

to

AI

42D.Working

with

uncertainties

45Uncertainty

1–

Easy

and

difficult

tasks

45Uncertainty2–

Long-term

structural

changes

in

the

labour

market46Uncertainty3–AI

adoption

in

developing

countries

47ivE.

Case

studies

of

AI

adoption

in

developing

countries

48Agriculture

48Pest

and

disease

control48Yield

prediction

50Precision

irrigation

50Manufacturing...51Production

automation52Predictive

maintenance

53Smart

factories53Healthcare

54Improving

diagnoses

54Extending

healthcare

coverage

55Pandemic

management

and

control

56F.Good

practices

and

lessons

learned

57Takeaway

1:Adapting

to

local

digital

infrastructure

58Takeaway2:

Utilizing

new

sources

of

data

58Takeaway3:

Making

AI

easy

to

use

58Takeaway4:

Building

strategic

partnerships59G.Workers

throughout

the

AI

life

cycle

60H.A

worker-centric

approach

to

AI

62Annex

II

64References

66Chapter

IIIPreparing

to

seize

AI

opportunities

..71A.The

frontier

technologies

readiness

index74B.

Key

factors

in

the

adoption

and

development

of

AI78Adoption

78Development

79C.Three

critical

leverage

points

for

AI

adoption

and

development79Infrastructure

80Data

82Skills

83D.Assessing

preparedness

for

AI

adoption

and

development

84AI

infrastructure

preparedness85AI

data

preparedness87AI

skills

preparedness.89E.

Strategic

positioning

for

AI

93Annex

III96A.

Frontier

technologies

readiness

index

results96B.

Frontier

technologies

readiness

index

results

for

selected

groupings101C.Technical

note

on

methodology

...106References

108vTechnologyand

Innovation

Report2025InclusiveArtificial

Intelligencefor

DevelopmentChapter

IVDesigning

national

policies

for

AI111A.AI

as

part

of

industrial

and

innovation

policies

114B.The

revival

of

industrial

policy

114Industrial

policies

on

the

rise

116A

changing

mix

of

policy

interventions

116C.

Policies

at

the

technological

frontier

118D.

Policies

for

AI

121Policies

for

adopting

and

developing

AI

124E.

Case

studies

of

AI-related

policies

125Setting

overarching

approaches

and

strategies

126China126European

Union127United

States

128Strengthening

infrastructure

to

power

AI

129Building

data

for

responsible

AI

131Reskilling

and

upskilling

for

AI

133F.A

whole-of-government

approach

to

AI

policy

135Annex

IV136References

138ChapterVGlobal

collaboration

for

inclusive

and

equitable

AI141A.

The

need

for

global

AI

governance

144B.Aligning

AI

with

social

objectives

145The

dominance

of

multinational

tech

giants

145The

importance

of

a

multi-stakeholder

approach

146The

need

to

include

consumer

views

147Protecting

intellectual

property148C.AI

governance

initiatives

from

international

forums

...

149A

fragmented

political

process149Emerging

common

principles

150D.The

United

Nations

contribution

to

AI

governance

154E.

Ensuring

accountability

155F.International

cooperation

for

infrastructure,data

and

skills

157Developing

digital

public

infrastructure

for

AI

158Promoting

AI

through

open

innovation

161Strengthening

capacity-building

and

research

collaboration

162G.Guiding

AI

for

shared

prosperity

165References

166viTechnologyand

Innovation

Report2025InclusiveArtificial

Intelligencefor

DevelopmentTechnologyand

Innovation

Report2025InclusiveArtificial

Intelligencefor

DevelopmentFiguresFigure

I.1Three

broad

categories

of

frontier

technologies

...5Figure

I.2Rapid

expansion

of

frontier

technologies

6Figure

I.3Market

dominance

of

technology

giants

7Figure

I.4Significant

concentration

of

research

anddevelopment

in

a

few

countries

9Figure

I.5Theshareof

R&D

in

software

and

computerservices

has

increased

sharply

10Figure

I.6Number

of

frontier

technology

patents,2000–2023

11Figure

I.8The

three

waves

of

AI

13Figure

I.9Evolution

of

language

and

image

recognitioncapabilities

of

AI

systems16Figure

I.10Synergiesamongthree

key

leverage

pointscan

accelerate

AI

progress17Figure

I.11AI

augments

other

frontier

technologies

18Figure

I.12Industrial

revolutions

and

their

transformative

changes

...19Figure

I.13Amortized

hardware

and

energy

cost

totrain

frontier

AI

models

22Figure

I.14AI-related

publications

and

patents

are

rising

23Figure

II.1Four

channels

through

which

AI

impacts

productivityand

the

workforce

.37Figure

II.2Use

of

AI

can

improve

a

firm’s

productivity

39Figure

II.3Developed

countries

have

greater

likelihoodsofAIautomation

butalsogreater

opportunitiesfor

augmentation

..42Figure

II.4Four

takeaways

for

promoting

AI

adoptionin

developing

countries

58Figure

II.5A

simplified

AI

life

cycle

60Figure

III.1Frontier

technologies

readiness

subindices

score,selected

country

groupings75Figure

III.2Brazil,China,

India

and

the

Philippines

are

developingcountries

outperforming

in

technology

readiness76Figure

III.3Correlation

between

index

score

andknowledge

generation

in

AI

77Figure

III.4Key

components

of

AI

infrastructure

81Figure

III.5Data

requirements

for

AI

82Figure

III.6Skills

for

adopting

and

developing

AI

83Figure

III.7Classification

of

countries

according

to

capacityfor

AI

adoption

and

development84viiFigure

III.8AI

infrastructure

preparedness85Figure

III.9Number

of

cloud

infrastructure

services,

mid-202487Figure

III.10

AI

data

preparedness

88Figure

III.11Internet

exchange

point

traffic

and

membership,

mid-202489Figure

III.12

AI

skills

preparedness

90Figure

III.13Economies

with

at

least2

million

GitHub

developers,

202391Figure

III.14Economies

with

the

fastest

growth

in

number

of

developers

92Figure

IV.1Developed

countries

drive

most

new

policy

interventions

116Figure

IV.2Interventions

have

become

more

targetedtoward

specific

firms

118Figure

IV.3Theshare

of

services

exports

is

increasingin

total

world

trade

exports

119Figure

IV.4Industrial

policies

increasingly

focus

onSTI-related

interventions

119Figure

IV.5

MostAI

policies

have

been

producedby

developed

countries122Figure

IV.6National

strategies,

agendas

and

plans

arethe

mostcommon

AI

policy

instrument

123Figure

IV.7Countrieswith

higher

GDP

per

capita

are

moreprepared

for

AI

governance124Figure

IV.8Overarching

policy

approaches

of

China,the

European

Union

and

the

United

States

129Figure

V.1Opinions

on

AI

and

personal

data

147FigureV.2

InternationalAIgovernance

initiativesare

largelydriven

by

G7

members150Figure

V.3Key

United

Nations

efforts

in

global

AI

governance

154Figure

V.4Establishing

an

AI

public

disclosure

mechanismto

ensure

accountability

156Figure

V.5Developing

digital

public

infrastructure

for

AI

.159Figure

V.6Open

innovation

in

AI

162Figure

V.7AI

capacity-building

partnerships164viiiTechnologyand

Innovation

Report2025InclusiveArtificial

Intelligencefor

DevelopmentTechnologyand

Innovation

Report2025InclusiveArtificial

Intelligencefor

DevelopmentTablesTable

I.1Revealed

technology

advantage

of

selected

countriesbased

on

filed

patent,2000–2023

12Table

I.2Overview

of

the

report,areas

of

focus,

recommendationsand

related

Sustainable

Development

Goals24Table

II.1Selected

micro-level

studies

on

GenAI

productivity

impacts

40Table

II.2Case

studies

of

AI

applications

in

agriculture

48Table

II.3Case

studies

of

AI

applications

in

manufacturing

51Table

II.4

Case

studies

of

AI

applications

in

healthcare

54Table

III.1Readiness

for

frontier

technologies,

selected

countries

74Table

III.2Key

elements

of

AI

adoption

and

development

..80Table

IV.1A

shift

from

trade

protection

to

direct

supportfor

productive

sectors117Table

IV.2Examples

of

AI

policies

for

adoption

and

development125Table

IV.3Examples

of

policies

to

strengthen

digital

infrastructure

.130Table

IV.4Examples

of

policies

to

build

data

132Table

IV.5Examples

of

policies

to

reskill

and

upskill

134TableV.1Summaryofthe

seven

major

internationalAI

governance

initiatives

.151BoxesBox

I.1Is

AI

a

general-purpose

technology?

15Box

I.2Key

features

of

the

fifth

industrial

revolution

20Box

II.1Using

AI

in

business

process

outsourcing

41Box

II.2Evidence

from

knowledge-intensive

activities

44Box

III.1The

five

As

framework

for

AI

adoption

and

development

94Box

IV.1Rationales

for

industrial

policies

115Box

IV.2Key

issues

for

policies

at

the

technological

frontier120Box

V.1Different

approaches

to

AI

regulation

152ix本报告来源于三个皮匠报告站（）,由用户Id:349461下载,文档Id:623341,下载日期:2025-04-12Frontiertechnologies,particularlyartificialintelligence,arereshapingthefunctioningofeconomiesand

societies.

However,

their

rapid

and

widespread

diffusion

is

often

outpacing

the

ability

ofmany

Governments

to

respond.The

Technologyand

Innovation

Report2025:Inclusive

ArtificialIntelligence

forDevelopment

surveys

the

complex

artificial

intelligence

landscape,

aiming

to

help

decision

makers

design

science,

technology

and

innovation

policies

that

foster

inclusivetechnological

progress.The

use

of

artificial

intelligence

has

the

potential

to

accelerate

progress

towards

achieving

theSustainable

Development

Goals,but

if

unevenly

distributed

and

not

guided

by

ethical

oversightand

transparency,

its

diffusion

can

exacerbate

existing

inequalities.The

report

analyses

therequirementsandpoliciesneededatallstages,fromdevelopmenttoadoption,tofosterinclusive

technological

progressforsustainabledevelopment.This

requires

a

multidimensional

and

evidence-based

approach.

For

this

purpose,

three

keyleverage

points–infrastructure,data

and

skills–are

identified,

offering

a

broad

socioeconomicperspective

and

highlighting

the

need

to

build

resilient

infrastructure

and

promote

inclusive

andsustainable

industrialization

and

innovation.Thereportstartsbydocumentingthesignificantconcentrationinartificialintelligencedevelopment

in

a

few

companies

and

countries

and

identifies

extensive

gaps

in

digital

infrastructure

that

risk

widening

inequalities

both

within

and

among

countries.Then

it

explores

productivity

andworkforcedynamicsfocusingoneconomicgrowthanddecentwork.Fromanationalperspective,

thereportanalysestherequirementsandpolicies

neededto

support

adoption,

adaptation

anddevelopment

of

artificial

intelligence.

From

an

international

perspective,

it

considers

the

needfor

global

artificial

intelligence

governance

to

steer

artificial

intelligence

towards

inclusive

andequitabledevelopment,emphasizingthe

importanceofinternationalcollaboration.History

has

shownthatwhiletechnological

progress

drives

economic

growth,

it

does

not

on

its

own

ensure

equitable

income

distribution

or

promote

inclusive

human

development.

Strongerinternational

cooperation

can

shiftthefocusfromtechnology

to

people,

enabling

countries

toco-create

a

global

artificial

intelligenceframework.

Such

aframework

should

prioritize

sharedprosperity,createpublicgoodsandplacehumanityattheheartofartificialintelligencedevelopment.Rebeca

GrynspanSecretary-Generalof

UNCTADxiTechnologyand

Innovation

Report2025InclusiveArtificial

Intelligencefor

DevelopmentForeword©2024_UNCTADAIartificial

intelligenceCSTDCommissiononScienceandTechnology

for

DevelopmentDPIdigital

public

infrastructureESGenvironmental,socialand

governanceFAOFoodandAgricultureOrganization

ofthe

United

NationsG7Group

ofSevenG20Group

of

20GDPgrossdomestic

productGenAIgenerativeartificial

intelligenceGVCsglobalvalue

chainsICTinformationandcommunicationstechnologyIEAInternational

EnergyAgencyILOInternational

LabourOrganizationIoTInternet

ofthingsITUInternationalTelecommunication

UnionLDCsleastdeveloped

countriesOECDOrganisationfor

EconomicCo-operationand

DevelopmentR&Dresearchand

developmentSMEssmalland

medium-sizedenterprisesSTEMscience,technology,engineeringand

mathematicsSTIscience,technologyand

innovationSTI

ForumMulti-stakeholder

ForumonScience,Technologyand

Innovationfor

theSustainable

DevelopmentGoalsUNDPUnited

Nations

Development

ProgrammeUNESCOUnited

Nations

Educational,ScientificandCultural

OrganizationUNHCROfficeofthe

United

Nations

HighCommissionerfor

RefugeesUNIDOUnited

Nations

Industrial

DevelopmentOrganizationWHOWorld

HealthOrganizationWIPOWorld

Intellectual

PropertyOrganizationTechnologyand

Innovation

Report2025InclusiveArtificial

Intelligencefor

DevelopmentAbbreviationsxiiTechnologyand

Innovation

Report2025InclusiveArtificial

Intelligencefor

DevelopmentNotesWithintheUNCTADDivisiononTechnologyandLogistics,theTechnologyandInnovation

Policy

Research

Section

carries

out

policy-oriented

analytical

work

on

the

impact

of

innovation

andnew

and

emerging

technologies

on

sustainable

development,

with

a

particular

focus

on

theopportunities

and

challenges

for

developing

countries.

It

is

responsible

for

the

Technology

andInnovationReport,whichseekstoaddressissuesinscience,technologyandinnovationthataretopical

and

important

for

developing

countries,and

does

so

comprehensively,

with

an

emphasis

on

policy-relevant

analysis

and

conclusions.The

Technology

and

Innovation

Policy

ResearchSectionsupportstheintegrationofSTIinnationaldevelopmentstrategiesand

in

building

upSTIpolicymakingcapacityindevelopingcountries;amajorinstrument

inthisarea

isthe

programmeof

science,technology

and

innovation

policy

reviews.In

this

report,

the

terms

country/economy

refer,

as

appropriate,

to

territories

or

areas.

The

designationsofcountrygroupsare

intendedsolely

for

statistical

or

analytical

convenience

anddo

not

necessarily

express

a

judgement

about

the

stage

of

development

reached

by

a

particularcountry

or

area

in

the

development

process.

Unless

otherwise

indicated,

the

major

countrygroupings

used

in

this

report

follow

the

classification

of

the

United

Nations

Statistical

Office.

A

filewiththemaincountrygroupingsused

can

be

downloadedfrom

the

UNCTADstat

databaseat/EN/Classifications.html.For

statistical

purposes,

the

data

for

China

do

not

include

those

for

Hong

Kong

SpecialAdministrative

Region

(Hong

Kong

SAR),

Macao

SpecialAdministrative

Region

(Macao

SAR)orTaiwan

Provinceof

China.References

in

the

text

to

the

United

States

are

to

the

United

States

of

America

and

those

to

theUnited

Kingdom

are

to

the

United

Kingdom

of

Great

Britain

and

Northern

Ireland.The

term

“dollar”($)

refers

to

United

States

dollar,

unless

otherwise

stated.Theterm

“billion”signifies

1,000

million.Annual

ratesofgrowthandchange

referto

compound

rates.Decimals

and

percentages

do

not

necessarily

add

up

to

totals

because

of

rounding.The

following

symbols

may

have

been

used

in

the

tables:•

Use

of

a

dash(–)

between

dates

representing

years,

such

as

1988–1990,

signifies

the

fullperiod

involved,

includingthe

initialandfinalyears.•

A

slash(/)

between

two

years,

such

as

2000/01,signifies

a

fiscal

or

crop

year.•

A

dot(.)

in

a

table

indicates

that

the

item

is

not

applicable.•

Twodots(..)inatableindicatethatthedataarenot

available

or

are

not

separately

reported.•

Adash

(–)orazero

(0)

ina

table

indicates

that

the

amount

is

nil

or

negligible.xiiiChapter

IAI

at

thetechnologyfrontierFrontier

technologies

are

advancing

rapidly,with

a

market

size

projected

to

grow

sixfold

by2033,to$16.4trillion.Market

power,research

and

development

(R&D)investment,

knowledge

creation

and

the

development

and

deployment

of

these

technologies

are

dominated

bytechnology

giantsfrom

developed

countries.

Only

100

companiesaccount

for

over40per

cent

of

the

world’s

business

investment

in

R&D.China

andthe

United

States

ofAmerica

dominate

knowledge

generation

infrontiertechnologies,with

around

one

third

of

peer-reviewed

articles

and

two

thirds

of

patents.

Similarly,there

is

a

significantAI-related

divide

between

developed

and

developing

countries.

This

could

widen

existing

inequalities

and

hinder

efforts

by

developing

countriestocatch

up.As

a

general-purpose

technology,AI

can

enhance

other

technologies

and

enable

effectivehuman-machinecollaboration.TheuseofAIofferssignificantopportunities

forbusinessesandcountriestogrowandtoprogresstowardstheachievementofthe

Sustainable

Development

Goals.

However,

it

also

presentsvarious

risks

and

ethical

concerns.

Decision

makers

needto

know

more

aboutAI

ifthey

areto

navigate

its

promisesandperils,forsustainableandinclusive

development.TechnologyandInnovation

Report

2025©AdobeStock

Leadingtechnologycompaniesaregainingcontroloverthetechnology’sfuture,andtheircommercialmotivesdonotalwaysalignwiththe

public

interest.Governmentsneedtoexplorepolicies

and

regulationsthat

canincentivizeandguidetechnologicaldevelopment

along

apaththatpromotes

inclusivityand

benefits

everyone.

Frontiertechnologiesarecapitalintensiveand

could

be