2025年通信行业中期策略报告：算力链长坡厚雪运营商攻防兼备

2

3海外算力链量价齐升：光模块量价齐升，服务器出货加快45Bloomberg

246525750223

152187315

314323

273373680401611636527830100015420623928144580011%23%2%-13%-17%63%57%37%43%20%52%34%68%28%16%4%18%58%83%

80%-400%-300%-200%-100%0%100%020040060080010001200202020212022202320242025E谷歌META亚马逊微软谷歌-YoYMETA-YoY亚马逊-YoY微软-YoY6Wind

697.5995.01366.71568.626.3%29.8%34.1%34.7%40.0%35.0%30.0%25.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%1800.01600.01400.01200.01000.0800.0600.0400.0200.00.02021202220232024光模块单价（元）光模块毛利率（%）72.694.1101.8228.929.6%8.2%124.8%20%0%60%40%140%120%100%80%0.050.0100.0150.0200.0250.02021202220232024光模块收入（亿元）YoY7Wind

28.432.530.385.914.4%-6.7%183.4%-50%0%50%100%150%200%100.090.080.070.060.050.040.030.020.010.00.02021202220232024点对点光模块收入（亿元）YoY0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%20212022202320241Q25新易盛中际旭创天孚通信8数据来源：Wind，天孚通信公司公告，新浪财经，网易新闻

供应链公司产品台积电天孚通信波若威Corning（康宁）Senko（扇港）FabrinetFoxconn（富士康）LumentumCoherentSUMITOMO（住友）3D光引擎芯片与Switch芯片的加工与先进封装FAU、光引擎FAU、光纤配线盒、保偏光纤准直器光纤光缆、shuffle

devices、MMC连接器MPC连接器交换机的组装与生产交换机的组装与生产激光器激光器激光器芯片SPIL（日月光子公司）

封测 资料来源：英伟达官网，各公司官网，国金证券研究1177461,6557449209601,1831,57616.9%8517.2%21863.8%67.5%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%1,8001,6001,4001,2001,000800600400200020202021202220232024光无源器件收入（百万元）光有源器件收入（百万元）公司收入YoY10

-50%0%50%100

%150

%200

%250

%300

%350

%0.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.00202

1202

2 202

3Wind

Lightcounting202

4营业收入（亿元）净利润（

亿元）营业收入YOY（%）近利润YOY（%）50.00%45.00%40.00%35.00%30.00%25.00%20.00%15.00%10.00%5.00%0.00%20202021202220232024 1Q2025太辰光致尚科技仕佳光子博创科技11Wind

3.153.634.403.616.061.592.172.241.852.311.812.212.201.922.190.160.160.200.170.180.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.00202

0202

12022202

3202

4光芯片及器件线缆材料室内光缆其他业务12650

Group Wind

ifind

2.37.10.11.01.03.00.02.04.06.08.010.012.0CY23CY28Insidedatacenter

opticalInsidedatacenter

AECDCI02468101214020406080100120202020212022202320241Q2025研发费用（百万元）研发费用率（%）13SemiAnalysis

IDCEET

China

14

工业富联广达纬创营业收入（亿）5839128139826综合费用率2.653.484.30毛利率7.287.858.01净利率7.677.363.35存货周转天数51.6153.457.89EET

China国产算力链蓄势待发：建议关注交换机、液冷板块15

图：2025年阿里、腾讯、字节资本开支预计将有双位数增长资料来源：Bloomberg，IDC，c114-350%-250%-150%-50%50%150%250%400350300250200150100500阿里巴巴阿里巴巴-YoY百度百度-YoY腾讯腾讯-YoY资料来源：爱分析，中研网图：交换机等网络设备采购约占总资本开支的11服务器69.0%网络设备11.0%光模块等存储设备

5.0%6.0%安全设备9.0%17

650

Group

IDC18%17%13%17%42%49%57%61%82%83%87%83%58%51%43%39%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%2021202220232024

2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E以太网

IB99.24101.42125.05222.15222.22217.682.2%0.0%-2.0%-5%0%5%10%15%0.050.0100.0150.0200.0250.0202220232024中国以太网数据中心交换机市场规模（亿元）数据中心交换机同比中国以太网非数据中心交换机市场规模（亿元）非数通交换机同比23.3% 25%20%18

650

GroupISCT’24ODCC

ETH-XGPU

Scale-up

OISA公司超节点技术/方案核心参数阿里ALinkSystem

(ALS)腾讯ETH-X开放超节点字节自研超节点架构支持UALink协议，单柜百TB/s级吞吐原生支持内存语义，显存共享达TB级256卡Scale

Up训练成本降低38%128卡推理性能提升40%2025年计划投入200亿美元建设海外AI基础设施火山引擎数据中心部署超万卡集群中国移动OISA协议超节点（“国

单节点集成64张国产AI芯片

芯国连”集群） 互连带宽896GB/s，交换容量51.2T 19

ifindc114ODCC30.828.8>4077.976.2<670.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.02022IDC

AI20232024新华三非数据中心交换机收入（亿元）新华三数据中心交换机收入（

亿元）48.3%52.8%50.4%39.8%43.3%41.3%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%202120222023新华三交换机毛利率锐捷交换机毛利率20

IDC66.7%33.3%互联网数通交换机占比非互联网数通交换机占比16.718.039.68%120%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%45.040.035.030.025.020.015.010.05.00.0202220232024锐捷网络数据中心交换机收入（亿元）YOY（%）备菲菱科思技术储

华为、新华三高端外包400G量产800G开发21

Ofweekwind100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%202220232024网通业务-AP系列其他主营业务网通业务-DSL其他网通业务-PON系列数通业务移动通信业务22

IDC24

Wind0.250.740.693.204.41%14.27%12.41%33.37%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%3.532.521.510.502021202220232024新能源收入（亿）收入占比（%）高澜股份液冷

技术数据中心液冷字节跳动12U