Financial-analysis介绍教学课件

Part3FinancialAnalysisBasicsforModernProjectEvaluationOutlinesProfitabilityAnalysisLiabilityAnalysisSolvencyAnalysis1.ProfitabilityAnalysisTraditionalAppraisalMethod(ARR)DiscountedCashFlowApproach(DCF)NetPresentValue(NPV)InternalRateofReturn(IRR)NetPresentValue(NPV)Itworksonthesimple,butfundamentalprinciplethataninvestmentisworthwhileundertakingifthemoneygotoutoftheinvestmentisgreaterthanthemoneyputin.Thepointisthatthetimevalueofmoneyistakenintoaccountinassessingwhethertheinvestmenthasapositiveornegativenetvalue.NetPresentValueCalculationformulation:NetPresentValueDecisionrule:NPV≥0InterpretationsofapositiveNPV:1.Itisanexcessreturnorameasureofeconomicprofit.2.Itisgeneratingareturnwhichisgreaterthani,thediscountedrateused.3.Ifthemoneywasborrowedatiinterest,theprojectwouldgenerateasufficientcashflowtopaytheinterest,repaytheloanandleaveasurplus.NetPresentValueExercise:某项目建设期为三年，第一年固定资产投资47703万元，第二年投资为53747万元，第三年投资32918万元。流动资金投资4113万元，在投产期初全部投完。项目一投产即达到100%设计生产能力，年经营成本为14163万元，销售收入为36721万元，销售税金及附加为销售收入的10%。项目的使用寿命为20年，设备期末残值为11460万元。如果该行业基准收益率为12%，计算并判断该项目在经济上是否可行。InternalRateofReturnIfaprojecthadapositiveNPVatacertaindiscountrate(say)10%,thismeant,amongstotherthings,thattheproject’sreturnwasactuallygreaterthan10%;WhilstifaprojecthadanegativeNPV,thenthereturnwaslessthanthediscountrate;IfithadazeroNPV,thenthereturnwasequaltothediscountrate.InternalRateofReturnTheIRRofaprojectcanbedefinedastherateofdiscountwhich,whenappliedtotheproject’scashflows,producesazeroNPV.Ingeneral:IRRisthevalue(discountedrate),whichsatisfiestheexpression:InternalRateofReturnEstimatingtheIRRvialinearinterpolationInternalRateofReturnInternalRateofReturnTheIRRdecisionruleOnlytheprojectswithanIRRgreaterthanorequaltosomepredetermined‘cut-off’rateshouldbeacceptable.Usuallythis‘cut-off’rateisthemarketrateofinterest,whichreflectstheopportunitycostofthecapitalinvolved.InternalRateofReturnExercise假设现在投资5000万元，预计10年中每年可获利100万元，在第十年末还可获利6900万元，求该投资的内部收益率。InternalRateofReturn某工厂拟用5000元购入机器一台,计算期为4年,假定设备的残值为零,每年的净现金流量如下图,若基准收益率为8%,试用内部收益率指标判断该设备是否可以购买?5000030001750800330InternalRateofReturnInternalRateofReturn年份0123净现金流量-100470-720360InternalRateofReturnNPV0i20%50%100%InternalRateofReturn0-100470-120350420-300-720-360360InternalRateofReturn投资项目常规投资项目非常规投资项目纯投资项目混合投资项目NPV&IRRDevelopedHowaboutthedecisionruleswhenfacedwithmutuallyexclusiveprojectsandotherformsofprojectdecisioninterdependence?NPV&IRRDevelopedTherelationshipbetweeninvestmentprojectsA&BIndependentRelevantMutuallyExclusiveInterlinkedNPV&IRRDeveloped----MutuallyExclusiveProjectsAssumptions1:theexistenceofaperfectcapitalmarket.Noconstraintsfromfinance.Assumptions2:thediscountedrateusedinNPVanalysiscorrectlyreflectsthedegreeofriskinvolvedintheproject.Assumptions3:equalprojectlivesNPV&IRRDevelopedNPV:acceptwhicheveralternativeprojectsthatresultinthegreatestpositiveNPVsinceitwillproducethegreatestadditiontotheshareholders’wealth.NPV&IRRDeveloped----InterlinkedprojectsAproject’scashflowsareaffectedbyinvestmentdecisionundertakenelsewhere.NPV:mutuallyexclusivelyinvestments.Example(i=10%)A=-38.73;B=427.03;C=A+B=511.24ProjectAProjectByearCFPVWithAWithoutACFPVCFPV01234-100040050020050-1000363.64413.20150.2634.15-200050080010001000-2000454.55661.12751.30683.00-20005008001200600-2000454.55661.12901.56409.80NPV-38.73549.97427.03A、B、C、D、E五个项目中，A与B、C与D互斥，C与D从属于B，E从属于C。它们的互斥组合为？互斥组合组合内的项目ABCDE110000A201000B301100B、C401010B、D501101B、C、ENPV&IRRDevelopedExamples:budgetlimitsto$800NPV&IRRDevelopedBudget:$700NPV&IRRDevelopedHowaboutcomparingprojectswithdifferentlives?NPV&IRRDevelopedPVofCosts(A)=-48,876PVofCosts(B)=-38,9561.LCM—solutionLowestCommonDenominatorNPV&IRRDevelopedPVofCosts(A)=-105.08PVofCosts(B)=-106.67NPV&IRRDeveloped2.AnnualEquivalentCost(Benefit)solution1.PVofCosts(A)=-$48,876PVofCosts(B)=-$38,9562.AEC(A)=PV/Annuityfactor(10%)=$15418AEC(B)=PV/Annuityfactor(10%)=$15645NPV&IRRDevelopedMutuallyExclusiveProjectsIRR:acceptwhicheverprojecthasthegreatestIRR,aslongasitexceedsthedecisioncriterion.???NPV&IRRDevelopedWhenanindividualprojectisevaluatedbyNPV,an“automatic”comparisonismadebetweenthecashflowsproducedbytheprojectandthecashflowsthatwouldhavebeenproducediftheproject’soutlayhadbeeninvestedonthecapitalmarketfortheperiodoftheproject’slife-span.NPV&IRRDevelopedThus,thedecisionwhethertoacceptorrejecttheprojectisnotanabsolutedecision,butarelativeone----relativetowhattheforgonealternativewouldhaveyielded.Asaresult,whenfacedwithmutuallyexclusiveinvestments,thechoicebetweentheprojectsiscarriedoutonthebasisofthisautomaticcomparisonwiththecapitalmarket.Whicheverprojectperformsbest,relativetothecapitalmarket,ischosen,givenitout-performsthecapitalmarketalternatives.NPV&IRRDevelopedWhynotIRR?TheIRRmethodmakesthecomparisononasomewhatdifferentbasisbyusingthedecisionrule:doestheprojectyieldagreaterorlesserreturnthanthecapitalmarket?Indoingso,itdoesnotgiveaconsistentlyreliableindicationofhowmuchbetterorworsetheprojectis,relativetothecapitalmarketinvestmentalternative.Example(10%)ProjectAProjectBProjectB-AyearCFPVCFPVDCFPV01234-1500550600500450-1500500496376307-1900400800800700-1900363.64661.12601.04478.10-400-150-600800700-400-136.36-495.84601.04478.10NPV178.88203.9046.94IRR16%15%12.4%Example(10%)NPV&IRRDevelopedModifieddecisionruleforIRR:CalculatetheIRRsofthetwoprojectsandtheIRRofeitherofthedifferentialcashflows,then:1.IfthedifferentialcashflowIRRisgreaterthanthecut-offrate,and(a)lessthanbothprojectsIRRs,thenaccepttheprojectwithsmallerIRR;(b)greaterthanbothprojectsIRRs,thenaccepttheprojectwithhigherIRR.NPV&IRRDeveloped2.IfthedifferentialcashflowIRRislessthanthecut-offrate,and(a)theIRRsofoneorbothprojectsarehigherthanthecut-offrate,thenaccepttheprojectwithhigherIRR;(b)ifneitherproject’sIRRisgreaterthanthecut-offrate,rejectboth.某投资项目有A、B、C、D四个方案。已知折现率为10％，资金不受限制，试用净现值法、年等值法和内部收益率法进行方案比较，请问能发现什么问题，如何处理？四个方案的基本数据如下表所示：方案ABCD初始投资170000260000300000330000年收入114000120000130000147000年费用70000710006400079000寿命期10101010TreatmentofInflation----constantprice:atthepriceinforceatthetimeoftheappraisal----currentprice:atthepriceinforcewhentheprojectinputoroutputoccursTreatmentofInflationFortheappraisalpurpose:NoInflationAssumptionConstantPriceTreatmentofInflationNominalvs.RealCashFlowsSomedifficultiesinAppraisalAppraisalbasedonAssumptionsConstantprice&relativepriceTakingriskintoaccount2.LiabilityAnalysisLiabilityreferstoacompany’sabilitytomeetitscontinuingobligationsastheyarise.Itplaysacentralroleforthecreditorstoassesstheamount,timinganduncertaintyoffuturecashflowsfromtheenterprisetothem.2.LiabilityAnalysisDebtRatioCurrentRatioQuickRatio2.LiabilityAnalysisDebtRatioisameasurementofcreditors’long-termriskbydividingtotalliabilitiesbytotalassets.2.LiabilityAnalysisCurrentRatioisameasureofshort-termliability,computedbydividingtotalcurrentassetsbytotalcurrentliabilities.2.LiabilityAnalysis流动资产=应收账款+存货+现金+累计盈余资金流动负债=短期借款+应付帐款2.LiabilityAnalysisQuickRatiocomparesquickassetswithcurrentliabilities.2.LiabilityAnalysis某企业资产负债表中的各项数据如下，请对其做清偿能力的分析。项目总资产为127942万元，应收帐款为2058万元，存货为3386万元，现金198万元，累计盈余资金为8106万元。流动负债总额1014万元，全部为应付帐款，中长期借款27947万元。(23%;13.56%;10.22%)3.SolvencyAnalysisTraditionalAppraisalMethod(Payback)DiscountedCashFlowMethod(DiscountedPayback)PaybackforDebtDiscountedPaybackOvercomethecriticism:discountedpaybackHowquicklyaprojecttakestopaybackitsoutlayinpresentvalue.DiscountedPaybackPt’=（累计财务净现值出现正值年份）-1+上年累计财务净现值的绝对值／当年财务净现值DiscountedPaybackExample:某项目建设期为二年，第一年年初投资1000万元，第二年年初投资1500万元。第三年开始投产，并达50%的设计生产能力。第四年可达100%的设计生产能力。正常年份销售收入为1000万元，经营成本为200万元，其中固定成本为150万元，变动成本为50万元，销售税等支出为销售收入的10%。求动态的全部投资回收期(折现率为8%)。DiscountedPayback

P‘t=7-1+165.39/408.44=6.4（年）

DiscountedPayback10%,A:5.03;B:5.21.DiscountedPaybackDiscussionsaboutdiscountedpaybackPaybackforDebtAnalysisThepaybackofdebtreferstothetimeaprojecttakestopaybackitscapitalinvestmentsdebt.PaybackofDebtAnalysisId为固定资产投资借款本息和；

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