【《保山机场航空业务量预测计算案例》2900字】

保山机场航空业务量预测计算案例目录TOC\o"1-3"\h\u31020保山机场航空业务量预测计算案例 1302901.1保山机场客运量及货邮量预测 121261.1.1趋势外推法 1228471.1.2计量经济法 4102911.1.3旅游人数相关法 6129761.1.4保山机场业务量预测结果 7141081.1.5最终取值 9246731.2机场规模预测 1167621.2.1机型预测 11323721.2.2实际载客数 11166011.2.3年起降架次 121.1保山机场客运量及货邮量预测在航空业务量预测时，需要综合考虑多种因素，如人口、经济、旅游业等与航空业务有关的因素进行调查分析，得出这些因素对航空业务量影响的规律，并且保山市有两个机场，可以对比另一个机场的发展规律，对保山机场未来几年的业务量进行预测REF_Ref23760\r\h[7]。我国在预测航空业务量方面的研究起步较晚，大多是短期预测。结合各种文献，现在已有的预测方法有很多，但是都没有较好的准确性，许多机构在实际应用中都会出现差错，预测结果与实际情况偏差较大REF_Ref17274\r\h[8]。通过云南省政府对本次工程可行性研究报告的批复中提到的要求，结合保山机场近几年的发展以及其他因素，确定本次航空业务量预测年份为2030年，采用趋势外推法REF_Ref17307\r\h[9]，计量经济法，旅游人数相关法进行预测。1.1.1趋势外推法根据网上查找的保山机场往年客运量和货邮量数据以及年起降架次，统计结果如表1.1.表1.1保山机场年业务量统计表年份旅客吞吐量（人次）货邮吞吐量（吨）起降架次（架次）200055240238.386614200166848269.770719200255750176.476898200340809216.182668200452827178.870695200589168147.83212052006109893182.22511862007137719184.35315632008149790186.57516182009136200137.57416812010154372361.87217032011153615306.58617402012155276368.00218042013238264354.29028212014273022420.43730282015303710611.8953243如表所示，保山机场2011年至2015年年业务量较其他年份增长速率较稳定，所以选取2011年至2015年的数据分别对保山机场未来的旅客吞吐量和货邮吞吐量进行预测。从表1.1可以看出保山近年来的业务量总体呈增长趋势，且增长图像为上凸的曲线，因此对2010年至2015年的机场年吞吐人次采用二次函数进行拟合REF_Ref17333\r\h[10]。Y=a（t−1999）其中a=1037.5,b=-2096.3,c=56595,相关系数R2Y=a(t−2015)+b(3-2)其中a=37329,b=281393,R2由于表3-1中货邮吞吐量整齐起伏较大，所以选用2011-2015年的货邮吞吐量进行拟合。Y=a(t−2010)+b(3-3)其中a=66.705,b=212.53,R2表3-2保山机场年业务量预测表年份旅客吞吐量（人次）货邮吞吐量（吨）2016320,796612.762017355,013679.472018391,304746.172019429,670812.882020464,923879.582021501,214946.292022537,5051,012.992023573,7961,079.702024610,0871,146.402025646,3781,211.112026682,6691,279.812027718,9601,346.522028755,2511,411.222029791,5421,479.932030827,8331,546.632031864,1241,611.342032900,4151,680.042033936,7061,746.752034972,9971,811.4520351,009,2881,880.161.1.2计量经济法由于保山机场的主要业务是普通乘客和货物运输，并且机场的业务量与当地的经济发展有相互作用，共同发展的关系，所以通过保山地区的历年生产总值也能一定程度上预测保山机场未来的航空业务量。保山机场2000-2015年生产总值如表3-3。表3-3保山2000年-2015年生产总值表年份生产总值（亿元）年份生产总值（亿元）200070.432008194.05200175.862009221.66200281.092010260.90200387.302011319.65200498.082012389.962005117.422013449.742006135.492014500.982007162.382015551.96假设未来几年保山地区年生产总值将保持现在的增速继续增长，然后保持一定的增速稳定增长。对2000-2015年生产总值数据进行指数拟合。Y=a∗e^(b∗(t−1999))（3-4）式中a=51.526,b=0.1495，相关系数R2Y=a(t−2015)+b（3-5）式中a=133.59,b=501.43,RY=ax+b(3-6)式中的a=901.38，b=−183931，R表3-4保山2016-2035年生产总值及保山机场年业务量统计表年份生产总值（万元）旅客吞吐量（人次）货邮吞吐量（吨）2016654.31333,728575.742017759.82383,218655.502018882.35440,689748.1120191,024.63507,428855.6620201,189.85584,928980.5620211302.97637,9871066.0620221436.56700,6491167.0420231570.15763,3111268.0220241701.74825,9721369.0020251837.33888,6341469.9820261970.92951,2961570.9620272104.511,013,9571671.9520282238.11,076,6191772.9320292371.691,139,2811871.9120302505.281,201,9431974.8920312638.871,264,6042075.8720322772.461,327,2662176.8520332906.051,389,9282277.8320343039.641,452,5902378.8120353171.231,515,2512479.791.1.3旅游人数相关法地区的旅游人数在一定程度上也反映了该地区机场的业务量，通过收集保山地区往年的旅客人数，预测未来保山的旅客人数，再找出保山的旅客人数和机场业务量之间的关系就可以预测未来保山机场的年业务量。保山历年旅游人数如表3-5.表3-5保山2002-2015年旅游人数统计表年份国内旅游人数年份国内旅游人数20022342009552.072003276.72010611.4120043442011689.9120053782012791.2420064152013938200723520141789.98200849820151264.15对历年旅游人数统计图进行分析，除2014年和2007年有较大变动外，其他数据总体上看都符合二次函数型增长，因此将2008-2013年的旅游人数统计数据进行二次函数拟合。Y=ax式中a=11.239,b=7.0955,RY=ax+b（3-8）式中a=254.35，b=1182.5，R表3-62016-2035年保山旅游人数及保山机场业务量预测结果统计表年份国内旅游人数（人次）旅客吞吐量（人次）货邮量（万吨）20161459.4276,553474.6220171680.0311,766528.9420181921.1350,567588.8020192188.7392,956654.1920202476.8438,932725.1120212708.6475,932782.1920222961.0516,526844.8120233217.3557,120907.4320243471.7597,714970.0520253726.0638,3091032.6720263980.4678,9031095.2920274234.7719,4971157.9120284489.1760,0911220.5320294741.4800,6861281.1620304997.8841,2801345.7820315252.1881,8741408.4020325506.5922,4681471.0220335760.8963,0631531.6420346015.21,003,6571596.2620356269.51,044,2511658.881.1.4保山机场业务量预测结果根据以上三种预测方法，最终结果如表3-7和3-8。表3-7保山机场旅客吞吐量（人）年份趋势推断法计量经济法旅客相关法2016612.76575.74474.622017679.47655.50528.942018746.17748.11588.802019812.88855.66654.192020879.58980.56725.112021946.291,066.06782.1920221,012.991,167.04844.8120231,079.701,268.02907.4320241,146.401,369.00970.0520251,211.111,469.981,032.6720261,279.811570.961095.2920271,346.521671.951157.9120281,411.221772.931220.5320291,479.931871.911281.1620301,546.631974.891345.7820311,611.342075.871408.420321,680.042176.851471.0220331,746.752277.831531.6420341,811.452378.811596.2620351,880.162479.791658.88表3-8保山机场货邮量（万吨）年份趋势推断法计量经济法旅客相关法2016612.76575.74474.622017679.47655.50528.942018746.17748.11588.802019812.88855.66654.192020879.58980.56725.112021946.291,066.06782.1920221,012.991,167.04844.8120231,079.701,268.02907.4320241,146.401,369.00970.0520251,211.111,469.981,032.6720261,279.811570.961095.2920271,346.521671.951157.9120281,411.221772.931220.5320291,479.931871.911281.1620301,546.631974.891345.7820311,611.342075.871408.420321,680.042176.851471.0220331,746.752277.831531.6420341,811.452378.811596.2620351,880.162479.791658.881.1.5最终取值由于机场航空业务量由多个因素决定，所以为了预测结果尽量准确，最终取值选择以上三种预测结果的平均值，再将均值取整，方便之后的计算。表3-9保山机场旅客吞吐量取值结果（人次）年份趋势推断法计量经济法旅客相关法均值最终取值2016320,796333,728276,553310,3593100002017355,013383,218311,766349,9993500002018391,304440,689350,567394,1873950002019429,670507,428392,956443,3514430002020464,923584,928438,932496,2614960002021501,214637,987475,932538,3785380002022537,505700,649516,526584,8935850002023573,796763,311557,120631,4096310002024610,087825,972597,714677,9246780002025646,378888,634638,309724,4407240002026682,669951,296678,9037709567710002027718,9601,013,957719,497817471.33338170002028755,2511,076,619760,0918639878640002029791,5421,139,281800,6869105039110002030827,8331,201,943841,280957018.66679570002031864,1241,264,604881,874100353410040002032900,4151,327,266922,4681050049.66710500002033936,7061,389,928963,0631096565.66710970002034972,9971,452,5901,003,6571143081.333114300020351,009,2881,515,2511,044,2511189596.6671190000表3-10保山机场货邮量预测取值结果（万吨）年份趋势推断法计量经济法旅客相关法均值最终取值2016612.76575.74474.62554.375542017679.47655.50528.94621.306212018746.17748.11588.80694.366942019812.88855.66654.19774.247742020879.58980.56725.11861.758622021946.291,066.06782.19931.5193220221,012.991,167.04844.811,008.28100820231,079.701,268.02907.431,085.05108520241,146.401,369.00970.051,161.82116220251,211.111,469.981,032.671,238.59123920261,279.811570.961095.291,315.35131520271,346.521671.951157.911,392411.221772.931220.531,468.89146920291,479.931871.911281.161,545.67154620301,546.631974.891345.781,622.43162220311,611.342075.871408.41,699.20170020321,680.042176.851471.021,775.97177620331,746.752277.831531.64