2025-2044年波音商用客机需求预测报告

CommercialMarket

Outlook

|

2025-2044Foreword.........................................................................................................................3Executivesummary

........................................................................................................4Globaltrendsanddrivers

...............................................................................................5Global

traffic,fleet

and

airplane

demand

outlook

...........................................................7Air

cargo

and

freighter

outlook

.......................................................................................9Regionalforecasts........................................................................................................11Africa

........................................................................................................................

11China

.......................................................................................................................

13Eurasia.....................................................................................................................

15LatinAmerica............................................................................................................

17Middle

East..............................................................................................................19NorthAmerica

...........................................................................................................21NortheastAsia.......................................................................................................23Oceania

....................................................................................................................25SouthAsia

................................................................................................................

27SoutheastAsia

........................................................................................................

29Methodology......................................................................................................31Glossary.............................................................................................................33TABLEOFCONTENTSViewofthehorizonthrougha

head-updisplay

(HUD)Commercial

Market

Outlook

2025-2044Cover

photo:Brad

McMullenSeniorVicePresidentCommercialSalesandMarketingTheBoeingCompanyAs

we

cross

the

quarter

century

mark,I’m

reminded

of

how

resilientour

industry

is

inthefaceofuncertainty.

Passengerairtraffichastripledandtheglobalairplanefleethasmorethandoubled

overthe

past

25

yearsas

commercial

aviation

grew

despite

significant

challenges.Whilewewillcontinuetoadaptandnavigatesome

level

ofvolatility,weprovidethiscomprehensiveforecastasamapofwherethe

industry

isheadedoverthenext20years–backed

up

bydecades

of

data,

researchandexpertanalysis.From

our

vantage

point

in2025,we

see

passenger

air

traffic

continuingto

rise

and

demand

for

new

airplanes

remaining

strong,outstripping

supplyfor

years

to

come.Operators

will

need

new

airplanes

to

replace

older,less-efficient

jets

and

to

grow

their

fleets

to

support

travel

demand.Weexpectitwilltakeatleast

untilthe

end

ofthis

decade

for

airplanesupplytocatch

upwith

marketdemand,atwhich

pointcommercialaviation

will

align

with

its

pre-pandemic

growth

trajectory.We

know

our

industry

will

continue

to

grow

and

overcome

current

andfuture

hurdles,

in

part,

because

we’ve

proven

we

can

do

that

againand

again.

3

Commercial

Market

Outlook

2025-2044FOREWORDDeparturesDeliveries2044

FleetTrafficgrowthAfrica1,2051,6806.0%China9,0009,7555.3%Eurasia8,91010,6803.1%LatinAmerica2,3653,0204.3%Middle

East2,9503,4754.4%NorthAmerica8,68010,4752.8%NortheastAsia1,5151,6352.4%Oceania8008953.0%SouthAsia3,2902,9257.0%SoutheastAsia4,8855,1007.0%EXECUTIVE

SUMMARY2025-2044GLOBALOUTLOOKDeliveries43,600Regionaljets1,545Single-aisle33,285Widebody7,815Freighters

Annual

traffic

growth955

4.2%2044fleet49,640Annual

fleet

growth3.1%4

Commercial

Market

Outlook

2025-2044Revenue

Passenger

Kilometers(trillions)Aviation’sresilienceisproven;this

isa

growth

industry+45%

growth(2018-2030)Passenger

trafficGlobalFinancialCrisis9/11

&SARSSource:Cirium,S&PGlobal

Market

Intelligence,

BoeingAnalysisInaddition,servicestradeisstillexpanding

rapidly,growing

at

a

rate

nearlytwo

percentage

points

faster

than

the

rate

of

merchandise

trade

since

2010and

linking

different

economies

beyond

the

exchange

of

physical

goods.Consumers

continue

to

prioritize

air

travel

in

their

spending

choices.

Travelspendingasashareofdiscretionaryspendinghasreturnedtoaboutpre-pandemiclevelsandinsomecasesisnowexceeding

it.Several

key

long-term

drivers

supportthis

trend.Overall,average

airfares

relative

to

income

levels

have

declined.This

trend

has

been

most

pronounced

over

the

last

decade

in

the

Asia-Pacificregion.

Even

more

mature

marketssuchas

NorthAmericaand

Europe

haveseen

increasedaffordability.GLOBALTRENDSAND

DRIVERSOverthe

lastquartercentury,theaviation

industryhas

beenon

a

remarkablegrowth

trajectory.Traffic

volumes

have

tripled

and

there

are

now

twice

as

manyairport

pairsservedanddoublethe

numberofairplanes

flying.

This

growth

hascome

despite

a

number

of

historic

challenges–

including

the9/11

attacks,

theGlobal

Financial

Crisis

and

the

COVID-19

pandemic.

Resilience

is

a

proven

andunshakabletraitofthis

industry.The

nextdecadeswill

likely

bring

uncertaintyandobstaclesaswell,

but

there

willbejustasmanyopportunitiesandstructuraldriverssupportingfurtherconnectivityand

growth

in

air

transport.

In

fact,while

merchandise

trade

globalization

hasslowed

since

the

Global

Financial

Crisis

of2008/09,the

spread

of

global

tourism—the

connection

of

people

and

cultures—continues

at

pace.Travelers/WorldpopulationTrade/GDP5

Commercial

Market

Outlook

2025-2044Source:Tourism

Economics,WTOtradestatistics,S&PGlobal

Market

Intelligence,

BoeingAnalysisNote:travelersareinternationalovernightarrivals;tradeisglobal

exports

of

goods5%

annualizedgrowthfrom

1990TourismgrowthcontinuesGlobalpandemicRecessionWithin

regions

Between

regions6%2024-2044

CAGR5%2024-2044CAGR2024-2044

CAGR3%2024-2044CAGRFiveyearsaftertheonsetofthepandemic,industry

airplane

supply

remains

wellbelowpriorpeakproductionlevels.

Delivered

capacity

is

still

morethan

20%

below

pre-pandemic

levelsand

lagsthe

manufacturingcapacity

recoveryfollowingtheGlobalFinancialCrisis,9/11andSARSdownturns.

In2024,

industrydeliverieswere

near2012

levels

even

though

passenger

air

travel

was

60%

higher.Airlinesareadaptingwitha

rangeoftactics

including

increasing

utilization

perairplane.Single-aisle

airplane

average

hours

flown

per

day

is

15%

higher

than2019levels,oranextrahour

perday.Airlinesare

also

extending

airplane

economiclives.Theshareofthepassengerfleetatorabovetheaverageeconomic

retirementage

has

risenfrom6%

to

11%

overthe

lastfiveyears.Asa

result,

airlines

will

befulfilling

pent-up

replacementdemandwellthroughthisdecadeas

industrysupply

chains

recoverand

returntogrowth.Airlineindustrybusinessmodelshavealsosignificantlydiversified

overthe

lastcoupleofdecades.Airlinesareexpandingoptionstoprovidemore

price

pointsandservicelevelstomatchconsumerneeds.Tosupportthewiderrangeoffareoptions,airlinesarepursuingarangeofstrategiesto

improve

efficiency

andlower

unit

costs.Emerging

markets

play

a

key

role

in

future

demand.

In

a

world

with

new

andevolving

alliances,a

more

integrated

Global

South

may

well

be

a

key

source

ofgrowthgoingforward.

Passengertrafficwithinand

betweenemerging

marketshas

risen

six-fold

over

the

last

two

decades.Already,the

share

of

global

trafficwithin

and

to/from

emerging

markets

has

risen

to60%

.Industryleveltraffic2012vs.2024+60%Industrycommercialdeliveries2012vs.2024-5%6

Commercial

Market

Outlook

2025-2044

BetweenAdvancedEconomies

TouchingEmerging

Markets

BetweenEmerging

MarketsGLOBALTRENDSAND

DRIVERSEmergingmarketsoutpacingaveragetrafficgrowth

AdvancedEconomies

EmergingMarketsRevenue

Passenger

Kilometers(trillions)3%2%In2024,theglobalairlineindustrymarkeda

significant

milestone,

surpassingpre-pandemictrafficlevelsfirstachievedin2019.This

resurgencesignals

arobustrecoveryandareturntogrowthforthe

sector.

Overthe

past

25years,the

airline

industry

has

demonstrated

exceptional

resilience,

navigating

throughvarious

regional

and

global

crises

while

expanding

the

network

by

adding

morethan

12,000airportpairs.

Notably,passengerairtraffic

(revenue

passengerkilometers)

hastripledoverthelastquartercenturywithafleetthat

has

doubledunderscoring

the

continuous

productivity

improvements

across

the

industry.Looking

ahead,the

fleet

is

projected

to

approach50,000

active

commercialairplanes

by2044,

representinga1.8-foldincreasefromthe2024fleetofjustover27,000

aircraft.This

growth

is

largely

driven

by

single-aisle

airplanes,which

are

expected

to

constitute76%

of

the

forecasted

43,600deliveries.These

aircraft

belong

to

highly

capable

families

that

offer

flexibility

in

capacityandoperationalcharacteristicsalongwithcompetitive

unitcostsand

theadvantagesoffleetcommonality.FleetTheir

versatility

makes

them

suitable

for

a

wide

range

of

missions,

fromhigh-frequencyshort-haulroutestolonger-range,lower-demandoperations.The

increasingshareofsingle-aisleairplanes

inthefleetis

evident,

risingfrom66%

in2024to72%

by

2044.Incontrast,widebodyairplanes,whichcurrentlyrepresent

16%

oftheglobalfleet,

providesignificant

passengeraccommodation,

long-rangecapabilities,andsubstantial

cargo

capacity.These

attributes

enable

airlines

to

explore

diverserevenueopportunities,includingpremiumclasses,long-distancepoint-to-point

travel,and

high-capacity

short-haul

operations.The

transition

from

four-engine

to

two-engine

configurations

has

enhanced

the

operating

economics

and

fuel

efficiency

of

widebody

airplanes,making

them

more

versatile

and

cost-effectivethanever.GLOBALTRAFFIC,

FLEETAND

AIRPLANE

DEMANDOutlook7

Commercial

Market

Outlook

2025-2044DeliveriesbytypeThedemandforairplanedeliveriesisalmostevenlydividedbetween

replacementand

growth,a

notable

shift

from

forecasts

from

over

two

decades

ago.

In

2001,approximately70%

of

airplane

deliveries

were

anticipated

for

industry

growth,whereasthecurrentforecastindicatesamorebalancedsplitofaround50/50.Thisincreasedfocusonfleetrenewaloffersbenefitsfortheindustryandenvironment.Newer

airplanes

typically

consume

less

fuel

per

seat-mile,

leading

to

reducedoperationalcostsandloweremissions.Overthenext20years,itisexpectedthatnearly80%

of

the

airplanes

currently

in

service

will

be

replaced.Deliveriesarealsoexpectedtobedistributedalmost

equally

between

emergingmarkets

where

a

larger

proportion

will

be

allocated

for

growth,

and

the

focus

ofmaturemarketsonreplacingexistingfleets.

Emergingmarketsare

already

significantplayersintheindustry,accountingfor

nearly40%

ofthefleet

in

2024,

and

theirinfluence

is

projectedto

increase.

By2044,thesemarketsareexpectedtorepresentover50%

of

the

global

commercial

fleet,highlighting

their

growing

importance

inshaping

the

future

of

the

aviation

industry.DeliveriesGLOBALTRAFFIC,

FLEETAND

AIRPLANE

DEMANDOutlook8

Commercial

Market

Outlook

2025-2044CAGR2025-2044Intra-GLOBAL

AIR

CARGO

ANDFREIGHTER

FLEETOutlookThe

air

cargo

industry

experienced

strong

growth

in2024,owing

to

the

recoveryofgeneralcargotradeandastrong

upswing

in

demand

for

e-commerce

out

ofEastAsia.Boeingforecaststhattheindustryoverallwillcontinuetogrowatanaverageof3.7%

peryearthrough2044,drivenprimarilybythe

projected

growthof

global

real

GDP,global

trade

and

industrial

production.Additionally,de-riskinganddiversificationofglobalsupplychainswillincreasethemanufacturingsector’sdemandforaircargoassupplychainsbecome

multi-nodalacrossawidergeography.Atthesametime,expandinge-commerceandexpressnetworks—particularlyincountrieswithlargepopulationsbut

nascent

online

retail

markets—will

provideafurther

boosttoair

cargotraffic.

Given

these

factors,marketsinSouthAsia,ChinaandSoutheastAsiaare

poisedforthefastest

growthoverthenexttwentyyears.9

Commercial

Market

Outlook

2025-2044AirCargoTraffic

Forecasts

by

FlowTraffic(billionCargoTonne

Kilometers)The

continued

growth

of

air

cargo

traffic

and

the

need

to

replace

aging

freighterswiththelatesttechnologywilldrivedemandforfactory-producedand

convertedfreighters

over

the

next20years.Thefreighterfleetforecast

projectstheglobalfreighterfleettogrow

byapproximately67%

from2,375airplanesin2024to3,975airplanes

in2044.Freighter

deliveries

are

expected

to

total2,900,with

approximately

45%

replacingretiringairplanes,whiletheremainderwillgrowthefleet.Roughlytwo-thirdsofallfreighterdeliverieswillbeconvertedpassengerairplanes.Ofthose

conversions,nearly60%

will

be

standard

body

freighters.The

Asia

Pacific

and

North

America

regions

will

require

the

most

freighterdeliveries.Justoverone-thirdofallfreighterdemandwillcomefromAsiaPacificcarriers,morethandoublingtheexistingfleet.NorthAmericancarrierswillreceiveanother

third

of

projected

freighter

deliveries,with

roughly

two-thirds

replacingolderairplanes.2,900Largewidebody

>80

tonnesMediumwidebody40-80tonnesStandard

body

<

40tonnes10

CommercialMarketOutlook2025-2044GLOBAL

AIR

CARGO

ANDFREIGHTER

FLEETOutlookNew

and

converted

freighter

deliveries

by

region

2025-2044world

total

36%32%17%10%5%Deliveries2025-2044%

ofWithtrafficgrowth

averaging

6%peryearthrough

2044,Africa

is

one

of

the

higher-growth

regions

of

theforecast,driven

byayoung

populationand

rapidlydevelopingeconomy.Airserviceswithinthe

region

remain

relativelylow

compared

to

other

emerging

markets.While

thecontinentcovers20%

ofEarth’slandarea,regulatoryconstraints

havesloweddevelopment

of

aviationnetworks

in

many

countries.

Low-cost

carriers

(LCCs)fly

only

1%

of

capacity

within

the

region

compared

toover20%

capacityonroutestoandfrom

Europe.As

a

result,short-haul

international

travel

is

lessdevelopedinAfricathanitis

inother

emerging

marketsand

represents

a

significant

growth

opportunity.Economic

growth(GDP)Airline

traffic

growth(RPK)

Airlinefleetgrowth4.0%6.0%4.4%11

CommercialMarketOutlook2025-2044PassengertrafficAFRICAChefchaouen,MoroccoFleetMapof

the

AfricancontinentDeliveriesAfrican

airlines

and

their

trade

associations

have

been

working

towards

the

SingleAfricanAirTransport

Market(SAATM)since2018.

Boeing’sforecastassumes

continued

progress,unlocking

growth

potential

and

allowing

theairline

fleet

to

more

than

double

through2044.Fleetgrowthwillfavorsingle-aisleairplanes,whichrepresentover

70%oftheregion’sdeliveriesto2044.

Modernsingle-aisleairplanesare

highlyrange-capable,enabling

airlines

to

serve

a

variety

of

markets

withinAfrica

andtonearby

regions.Traffic

growth

isforecastto

average

6%

per

yearthrough

2044fueled

by

rapid

economic

development,and

ayoung,

growing

population.12

CommercialMarketOutlook2025-2044DeliveriesbytypeAFRICAChineseairlineshaveseenstrong

passengertrafficgrowthoverthelastseveralyears,with2024volumes10%

above2019

levels.Overthe

next20

years,passengertrafficwillgrowat5.3%

annually,outpacingprojected

economic

growth

of

3.7%

.The

share

ofmiddle-income

householdswill

nearlydoublefrom

24%

to43%,

making

air

travel

attainable

for

morepeople.

Recent

policychanges

reducingvisarequirementswillfurtherstimulateinternationaltravel.China’sjetfleetisforecasttodoubleoverthe

nexttwentyyearsto9,755airplanes.Newairplanedeliverieswill

increasingly

support

fleet

renewal,with41%

of9,000

new

deliveries

replacing

older

airplanes—upfrom27%

a

decade

ago.Economic

growth(GDP)Airline

traffic

growth(RPK)

Airlinefleetgrowth3.7%5.3%4.0%13

CommercialMarketOutlook2025-2044PassengertrafficCHINABeijing,ChinaFleetTheGreat

WallofChinaDeliveriesAs

moreefficientandcapablesingle-aisle

airplanes

enter

China’sfleet,airlinesareshiftingawayfrom

operatingwidebody

airplanes

onshorter-haul

routes.This

trend

is

seen

on

routes

to

and

from

the

rest

ofAsia,where

the

share

of

flights

operated

by

widebody

airplanes

hasdecreased

from

15%

to

12%

over

the

last

five

years.Chinese

airline

capacity

share

on

major

long-haul

routes

has

increasedmorethan20percentagepointsoverthe

lastdecadeand

is

now

at

65%

.While

growth

will

moderate,passenger

traffic

on

long-haul

flows

isexpected

to

grow

at

a

rate

of6.5%—supporting

a

need

for

1,540

newwidebodyairplanes.The

China

marketwillseeabove-average

global

traffic

growthwithagrowing

middle

class,

liberalizing

visapolicies,and

strong

aviation

infrastructure

investment.14

CommercialMarketOutlook2025-2044DeliveriesbytypeCHINAEconomic

growth(GDP)Airlinetrafficgrowth(RPK)AirlinefleetgrowthWarsaw,PolandPassengertraffic

FleetDiverse

markets,

connectivity

needs

and

airlinebusiness

modelscharacterizethe

Eurasiaregion.Western

European

markets

boaststrongoriginanddestinationdemandbutarenotgrowingasquicklyasothermarkets

inthe

region.

Eastern

EuropeanandCentral

Asian

markets

are

generally

less

wealthy

butaregrowingfasteras

per-capita

incomes

improveand

tourismindustriesdevelop.Onablendedbasis,Boeing’sforecast

for

the

region’s

traffic

calls

for

average

growthof3.1%

annuallyoverthenext

20years.Passengers

in

the

region

benefit

from

extensive

globalnetwork

access.

Demand

for

travel

to

and

from

formercoloniesstronglyinfluencesthenetworksof

Europe’sflag

carriers,creating

business

and

family

linkagesacrossAfrica,theAmericasandAsia.Tosupportthesedistantlinkagesandresultingdemand,

Eurasianairlines

needto

maintaina

largewidebodyfleet

and

willrequire

1,415widebodydeliveriesby2044forgrowth

andfleetrenewal.15

CommercialMarketOutlook2025-20441.6%3.1%2.4%EURASIAGalleria

Vittorio

Emanuele

in

Milan,ItalyDeliveriesShort-haul

travel

growth

is

very

strong

and

is

often

oriented

towardsvacations

and

personal

visits

within

Europe.

Much

of

this

traffic

flows

viaultra

low-cost

carriers(ULCCs),which

have

been

expanding

their

marketsharesincetheopeningofthe

EU

internalaviation

market

inthe

1990s.Whilethistrendhas

largelyrun

itscourse

inWestern

Europe,

itcontinuesin

Eastern

EuropeandTürkiyeand

is

in

itsearlydays

in

CentralAsia.ULCCs

predominantlyflysingle-aisleairplanes,andasaresult,

Eurasia’ssingle-aislefleetwillremainthelargestwith7,195deliveriesforgrowth

and

replacementneeds.Intra-Eurasiatravel

is

primarilyserved

bysingle-aisleairplanesand

ranksamongthetopthreeglobal

flowswith7,195deliveriesexpectedoverthe

nexttwodecades.16

CommercialMarketOutlook2025-2044EURASIADeliveriesbytypeDemandforairtravelin

LatinAmerica

isforecasttooutpaceregionaleconomicgrowthatover4%

peryear.Demographicsarea

keydriver.

Brazil’smiddleclass,the

third

largest

among

global

emerging

markets,

isexpected

to

grow4%

annually

over

the

next

decade.The

middle

clas