2025年首席经济学家展望报告（英）

CentrefortheNewEconomyandSocietyChiefEconomistsCentrefortheNewEconomyandSocietyOutlookMay2025ChiefChiefEconomistsOutlookPAGE10PAGE10ChiefEconomistsOutlookMay2025Thisbriefingbuildsonthelatestpolicydevelopmentresearchaswellasconsultationsandsurveyswithleadingchiefeconomistsboththepublicandprivatesectors,organizedbytheWorldEconomicCentrefortheNewEconomyandSociety.Itaimstosummarizetheemergingofthecurrenteconomicenvironmentandidentifyprioritiesforfurtheractionbypolicy-makersandbusinessleadersinresponsethecompoundingshockstotheglobalfromgeoeconomicandgeopoliticalevents.Thesurveyfeaturedinthisbriefingconductedfrom3-17April2025.ContentsExecutivesummary 5Aworldtransformed Volatilityweighsontheeconomicoutlook Regionalchallenges Anageofuncertainty Policyupheavalandcoordinationrisks AIunleashed Theageofdisruption 27Adoptionandadaptation 31References Contributors Acknowledgements Cover:UnsplashExecutivesummaryTheMay2025editionoftheChiefEconomistsOutlookispublishedatatimeofextraordinaryvolatilityanduncertainty.Sincethebeginningoftheyear,theglobaleconomicoutlookhasdarkened.IntheWorldEconomicForum’slatestsurveyofchiefeconomists,conductedinthefirsthalfofAprilattheheightofrecentpolicydevelopments,therewasunanimitythattheconditionoftheglobaleconomyissettoweakenconsiderably.Notably,79%ofchiefeconomistssurveyedvieweddramaticchangestoUSpolicyaspartofalong-termstructuralshiftratherthanashort-termdisruption,amarkedincreasefrom61%inlate2024.Tradepolicyhasbeenatthecentreofspirallingeconomicuncertainty,withtheannouncementinearlyAprilofunprecedentedincreasesinbilateraltariffsbetweentheUSandmanyothercountries.Mosthavesincebeenpausedfor90days,whichhasledtoasignificanteasingofshort-termconcerns,particularlyinfinancialmarkets.However,underlyinguncertaintyaboutUSeconomicpolicypersists,anditremainstobeseenwhatwillhappenwhenthepauseselapse.

Againstthisbackdrop,itisdifficulttogaugetheeconomicoutlookwithgreatcertainty.Respondentstothechiefeconomists’surveywereclearthatoverallgrowthprospectswereweakening,withtheshiftintrajectorybeingmostpronouncedintheUS,wherethemajorityofchiefeconomistsexpectedweakorveryweakgrowthfortheremainderof2025,alongsiderisinginflationandaweakeningdollar.InEurope,whilegrowthremainssubdued,respondentspointedtoemergingsignsofimprovement,drivenbyexpansionaryfiscalpolicyandcontinuedmonetaryeasing.Chinaisalsopursuingfiscalexpansioninanefforttobolstergrowth,butthechiefeconomistsweredividedonwhetheritwouldreachitstargetof5%GDP(grossdomesticproduct)growththisyear,givenarangeofbothexternalanddomesticeconomicchallenges.Lookingmorebroadlyattheeconomicimpactofrecentdevelopments,thechiefeconomistswerelargelyalignedintheirassessmentthathighertariffsandpersistenttradetensionswouldfuelinflationandsuppresstradevolumes,andpersistentuncertaintywouldinflictsignificanteconomicdamageontheglobaleconomy,includingthroughparalyseddecision-makingandheightenedrisksofpolicymiscoordination.Amidthisturbulence,therapidadvanceofartificialintelligence(AI)isaddinganotherlayerofcomplexityandopportunitytotheglobaleconomiclandscape.Whileonly45%ofchiefeconomistsexpectAItobecommerciallydisruptivein2025,asimilarproportionofrespondentsexpectAItoadduptofivepercentagepointstoglobalGDPoverthenextdecade,whileathirdexpectevengreatergains.Thiswouldbeasignificantboosttoglobaleconomicactivitygivencurrentsluggishgrowthrates.InnovationandaugmentationwerehighlightedaskeychannelsthroughwhichAIwilldrivegrowth.However,thelabourmarketoutlookismixed,with47%expectingnetjoblossesandonly19%foreseeingnetgains,highlightingtheeffortsneededtoensurethatAIisnotashort-termboosttotheglobaleconomyfollowedbyalonger-termcontractionindemandandlivingstandardsbutawin-winscenarioforworkersandbusiness.

Businessesandgovernmentsarebeingforcedtoadaptrapidlytothetwinchallengeofsurgingeconomicvolatilityandrapidtechnologicaltransformation.Allofthechiefeconomistssurveyedexpectfirmstoreorganizesourcingandlogisticstoreducetariffexposure,whilealargemajorityanticipatedelaysinstrategicdecision-makingandinvestment.Respondentsalsoemphasizedtheimportanceofincreasingorganizationalagility,diversifyingsupplychainsandreskillingworkforcestointegrateAI.Atatimeofprofounddisruption,organizationscanpositionthemselvesforresilienceandexpansionbyaligningtechnologicalinnovationwithaclearunderstandingofthebroadereconomiclandscape.AVolatilityweighsontheeconomicoutlookTheglobaleconomicoutlookhasdarkenedsincethestartoftheWorseninggeopoliticaltensionsandrisingeconomicnationalismthreatenedinApriltoescalateintoaglobaltradeanddespiteasubsequentpauseineconomichostilities,thesituationremainsfraughtwithrisks.Unprecedentedlevelsofuncertaintythreatentocausesignificanteconomicdamagethroughincreasedpolicycoordinationrisks,stalleddecision-makingandthedisruptionofglobalvaluechains.1

TheWorldEconomicForum’slatestsurveyofchiefeconomistswasconductedinthefirsthalfofApril,whentrade-relateduncertaintywasparticularlyhigh.TheunanimousviewofrespondentswasthatglobaleconomicprospectsaresettoweakenconsiderablythisasignificantlygloomieroutlookcomparedtotheprevioussurveyinNovember2024.Moreover,79%ofchiefeconomistssurveyed(upfrom61%inNovember)seecurrentdevelopmentsaspartoflong-termshiftintheglobaleconomy,ratherthanashort-termdisruption.Figure1.TheglobaleconomicoutlookLookingahead,whatareyourexpectationsforthefutureconditionoftheglobaleconomy?1005018171005018170175043393756535761202128419542341Shareofrespondents(%)SomewhatweakerMuchweaker100 Aug23 Nov23 Apr24 Aug24 Nov24 Apr25ChiefEconomistsSurveysNote:ChiefEconomistsSurveysareconducted7-8weeksaheadofthelaunchofanewChiefEconomistsOutlook.Inedition,chiefeconomiststakealookattheremainderoftheyear.Inothereditions,theoutlookfortheyearaheadisgiven.Thenumbersinthegraphsmaynotaddupto100%becausefigureshavebeenroundedup/down.Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey.(2025,April).TheEconomist.(2025a).Figure2.USpolicyimpactHowwouldyoucharacterizethelikelyimpactofthenewUSgovernmentpoliciesonthetrajectoryoftheglobaleconomy?Nosignificantchange Short-termdisruption Long-termshift79217921Shareofrespondents(%)Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey.(2025,April).ThekeyshocktotheglobaleconomythathasshapedthisoutlookwasaseriesofhistoricchangesinUStradepolicy,whichhaverockedconfidenceinthedurabilityofkeypillarsofthepost-WorldWarIIinternationaleconomicOn2April,theUSannouncedadramaticincreaseinimporttariffs,includingabaselineof10%onmostglobalgoods,aswellasmuchhigherratesonawiderangeofcountries,peggedtotheirtradesurpluseswiththeUS.2Thisshocktotheglobaltradingsystemtriggeredfinancialmarketconvulsions.3ItwasfollowedbytheUSannouncinga90-daypauseonmostofthehighertariffsithadannounced,withthenotableexceptionofthoseonChineseimports,whichwerepushedhigherto145%,triggeringasimilarescalationontheChinesesideaswellasthesuspensionofexportsofarangeofcriticalminerals.4However,amonthlater,

on12May,thesemeasureswerealsopausedwiththeUSandChinaannouncinga90-dayreductionof115percentagepointsontheirbilateraltariffs,andaliftingofChina’sexportrestrictionsonminerals.5Whilethepausingofmostplannedtariffshasbroughtsignificantrelief,thepost-pauseoutlookremainsuncertain,andthevolatilityofdecision-makinghastriggeredquestionsaboutthecontinuingreliabilityandpredictabilityofeconomicpolicyintheUS.Asthelong-anticipatedriskofatradewarbetweentwoeconomicsuperpowerscamedangerouslyclosetobecomingareality,trade-relateduncertaintyinthepastthreemonthshasbeenhigherthanatanytimesincerecordsbeganin1960.6InApril2025,itwasfaraboveCOVID-19pandemic-erahighs.7Foster,&Fleming,S.(2025).TheEconomist.(2025b).Bradsher,K.(2025);Smith,A.etal.(2025).TheWhiteHouse.(2025).Caldara,D.etal.(2020).Georgieva,K.(2025).Figure3.TariffsandtradeLookingaheadtotheremainderof2025,doyouagree/disagreewiththefollowing?Stronglydisagree Disagree Uncertain Agree Stronglyagree452132Highertariffswillleadtohigherinflation 34521325033395033395Shareofrespondents(%)Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey.(2025,April).Atthetimeofwriting,itremainsunclearhowtariffswillevolve,inparticularwhenthe90-daypauseselapse.Thereislittledoubtthatrecentdevelopmentshighlightthevulnerabilityoftheglobaleconomytoadversepolicyshocksandthattheirfollow-oneffectscanbesignificant.Inadditiontohighlightingaweakeningoftheoveralleconomicoutlook,largemajoritiesofthe

chiefeconomistssurveyedsaidthathighertariffswouldleadtohigherinflation(77%)andtostagnationordeclineforglobaltradevolumes(89%).ThislatterpointwasechoedbytheWorldTradeOrganization(WTO),whichforecastthatthethreatenedtariffswouldcauseglobalmerchandisetradevolumestocontractby0.2%thisyear.8Figure4.UStariffimpactsLookingattheremainderof2025,doyouexpectUStariffstocausesignificanteconomicdamage?3320332053Yes–primarilyharmingthecountriestargetedbythetariffsYes–primarilyharmingtheUSYes–harmingboththeUSandthecountriestargetedbythetariffsYes–abroad-baseddragontheglobaleconomyPercentofrespondents(%)Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey.(2025,April).WorldOrganization(WTO).(2025).intoaccountmeasuresinplaceuntil14April).canimpactgrowthinnumerousways,includinginflationarypressures,weakerconsumersentimentandafall-offintradevolumes.9Itisnotsurprising,therefore,thattheevidenceismountingthatrecenttradepolicyturmoilandtheabove-the-normtariffratesduringthepauseperiodareaffectingtheglobaleconomy.10Whileamajority(53%)ofthesurveyedchiefeconomistsexpectedtheeconomicdamageofthethreatenedtradewartobemainlyfocusedontheUSandthecountriestargetedbyitstariffincreases,almostathird(32%)foresawabroaderdragontheglobaleconomy.Noneexpectedthetariffstohavenoeconomicdamage,andonly3%expected

damagetobelimitedtothecountriestargetedbythetariffs.ThelevelofdamagethatisdonewilldependbothondecisionstheUStakesaboutitsplannedtariffsafterthe90-daypausesconcludeandonanyretaliatorymeasuresthatothercountriesthendecidearewarranted.Onretaliation,57%ofchiefeconomistsexpectothercountriestorelyoncounter-tariffs,comparedto22%whoexpectanyretaliationtoinvolvenon-tariffbarriers,and19%whoexpecttheuseofothereconomicpolicylevers.Only3%don’texpectcountriestoretaliateagainstUStariffs.Figure5.RetaliationforUStariffsLookingattheremainderof2025,doyouexpectothercountriestoretaliateagainstUStariffs?NoYes–primarilybyraisingtheirowncounter-tariffsYes–primarilybyintroducingnon-tarifftradebarriersYes–primarilybymeansofothereconomicpolicies319223192257Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey.(2025,April).TheEconomist.10Beattie,A.(2025).Asinprevioussurveys,thechiefeconomistscontinuetohighlightthegrowingimportanceofgeopoliticalandpoliticalfactorsasdriversoftheeconomicoutlook.Nearlyallofthosesurveyedanticipatethatpoliticalpolarizationwillleadtofurthersuboptimaleconomicdecision-makingthisyear(95%)andthateconomicnationalismwillbeanincreasinglyimportanteconomicdriver(94%).Thistwindynamichasbeenevidentinaconsistent

recentpatternofglobalelectoraldiscontent:inelectionsheldin2024,everygoverningpartyindevelopedeconomieslostvoteshare,oftentopartiesespousingpopulistnationalism.11Astradeandinvestmentflowsincreasinglyalignalongevolvinggeopoliticalfaultlines,chiefeconomistsexpectthepaceofgeoeconomicfragmentationtoacceleratefurtherthisyear(98%).Figure6.Polarization,nationalismandfragmentationLookingaheadtotheremainderof2025,doyouagree/disagreewiththefollowing?Stronglydisagree Disagree Uncertain Agree Stronglyagree66332Thepaceofgeoeconomicfragmentationwillaccelerate663322433243371tosuboptimaleconomicdecision-making55539Economicnationalismwill55539Shareofrespondents(%)Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey.(2025,April).RegionalchallengesNorthAmericaFigure7.USintheremainderof2025EconomicInflationFiscalpolicyMonetarypolicy

69869822weak Weak Moderate Strong strong21792179low Low Moderate High high46 23462331Looser Unchanged Tighter50 29502921Looser Unchanged TighterSource:ChiefEconomistsSurvey.(2025,April).WorldEconomicForum.(2025a).Atthebeginningof2025,expectationsfortheUSeconomywereoptimistic12buttheunexpectedextentofthepolicychangesthatwereannouncedinAprilhascloudedtheoutlook.RespondingbeforeannouncementofthepauseinUS-Chinatariffs,almostfouroutoffiveofthechiefeconomistssaidtheyanticipatedweak(69%)orveryweak(8%)growthfortheremainderoftheThisisasignificantsofteningcomparedtoJanuary’sedition,whentheexpectationwasformoderate(47%)orstrong(44%)growth.Accordingtoearlyofficialestimates,inthefirstquarter,realGDPdecreasedatanannualrateof

0.3%.13Whilethisheadlinefiguremasksstrongdomesticdemandandincludesariseinimportsasareactiontoexpectedtariffs,moretimelyindicatorspointtothebeginningofaslowdown.AttheendofApril,USbusinessactivitygrowthwasata16-monthlowandbusinessexpectationsfortheyearaheadhaddroppedsharply.14Consumersentimenthadalsoplunged,15andtheunusualcombinationofrisingbondyieldsandaweakeningdollarpointedtoinvestornervousness.16Atthetimeofwriting,therehasbeenaclearlypositivemarketresponsetotheannouncementoftheUS-Chinatariffpause.17Figure8.USdollaroutlookLookingaheadtotheremainderof2025,doyouagree/disagreewiththefollowing?Stronglydisagree Disagree Uncertain Agree Stronglyagree63131363131311Shareofrespondents(%)Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey.(2025,April).Justoverthree-quarters(76%)ofchiefeconomistssurveyedalsoexpectedthedollartoweakenfurtherovertheremainderof2025.Ifthisoccurred,itwouldaddtoinflationarypressures,and79%ofrespondentswereanticipatinghighinflationthisupfromjust15%inthepreviousedition.Accordingtoacloselywatchedindicator,inflationexpectationsintheUShavealreadyrisensharply,withyear-aheadinflationnowprojectedat7.3%,thehighestlevelsince1981,andlong-term

expectationsupto4.6%.18However,thiscontrastswithadipintheheadlinerateofinflationto2.3%inApril.19Theoutlookforpricestabilitymayimproveifcurrenttariffpausesareextended,althoughtheimpactofthehigher-than-norm“pauserates”isyettobefullyfactoredin.20Againstabackdropofslowinggrowth,recentinflationdynamicshavebeenmakingtheFederalReserve’spolicydecisionsmorecomplex.Inthelatestsurvey,halfofrespondentsexpectedashifttowardsloosermonetarypolicy.InternationalMonetaryFund(IMF).BureauofEconomicAnalysis.(2025).S&PGlobal.(2025a).UniversityofMichigan.(2025).TheEconomist.(2025d).

Sandlund,etal.(2025)UniversityofMichigan.(2025).BureauofLaborStatistics.(2025a).TheEconomist.(2025e).ItisnotablethattheUSlabourmarkethasremainedrelativelyresilientthroughtheturmoiloftheearlymonthsofthisIntheviewofmanychiefeconomists,ifthelabourmarketweretoweakensignificantly,itcouldsignalamoredisruptivephaseforUSgrowth.Therehavebeensomesignsofsoftening,butjobdataremainedsteadyinMarchandApril.21Moreover,despitethesharpvolatilityintheUSeconomyinrecentmonths,therecontinuetobepositivesignalsforthemediumandlongterm.Forexample,greenfieldforeigndirectinvestment(FDI)intotheUSissoaring,withthevalueofprojectssurgingby93%to$266billion,asaresultofsemiconductormegaprojects.22

ElsewhereinNorthAmerica,deeptradeandsupplychainintegrationwiththeUSmeansthatbothMexicoandCanadaareacutelyexposedtoshiftsinUSeconomicpolicy.ThisvulnerabilityisreflectedinthelatestprojectionsfromtheIMF,whichinitslatestroundofforecasts–conductedinearlyAprilwhenuncertaintywasatapeak–pointstogrowthinCanadaofjust1.4%in2025,adownwardrevisionof0.6percentagepointssinceJanuary.23InMexico,therepercussionsofthethreatenedUStradepolicypivotwereevenmorepronounced,withtheIMFforecastingthatrealGDPwouldcontractby0.3%,asharpdowngradeof1.7percentagepoints.24EuropeFigure9.Europeintheremainderof202536503113650311543114weak Weak Moderate Strong stronglow Low Moderate High highLooser Unchanged TighterLooser Unchanged Tighter2176147739InflationFiscalpolicyMonetarypolicySource:ChiefEconomistsSurvey.(2025,April).TheoutlookfortheEuropeaneconomyisshowingsignsofimprovement,albeitfromaweakbaseafteryearsoflacklustregrowth.Halfofchiefeconomistsstillexpectgrowthtoremainweakthisyear(inlinewithIMFprojectionsof0.8%growthfortheEurozone25),andonly

11%expectstronggrowth,butthisstillrepresentsanotableimprovementfromprevioussurveys.OnekeyfactorinthebrighteningaroundEurope’seconomicprospectsisthehopeforanexpansionaryshiftinfiscalpolicy,whichisnowexpectedby77%ofchiefeconomists.BureauofLaborStatistics.(2025b).UnitedNationsandDevelopment(UNCTAD).InternationalMonetaryFund(IMF).(2025b).

InternationalMonetaryFund(IMF).(2025b).InternationalMonetaryFund(IMF).(2025b).ThisisconnectedtopolicydevelopmentsintheUS,whichappeartohavegalvanizedthesenseamongEuropeanpolicy-makersthatactionisneededtobolstertheireconomies,securityandsocieties.26Germanyhastakentheleadinthisrespect.Thenewcoalitiongovernmenthasintroducedadramatic

overhaulofthecountry’sfiscalframework,includingarelaxationofconstitutionaldebtconstraintstoallowforsharpincreasesininfrastructureanddefencespending.27HalfofthesurveyedchiefeconomistsexpectthatthischangeinGermany’sfiscalstancewilldriveanaccelerationofgrowthacrossthecontinent.Figure10.GermanfiscalpivotLookingaheadtotheremainderof2025,doyouagree/disagreewiththefollowing?Stronglydisagree Disagree Uncertain Agree Stronglyagree3 1829453 1829455Shareofrespondents(%)Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey.(2025,April).MonetarypolicyisalsoexpectedtolendsomesupporttoEuropeangrowth,with76%ofrespondentsanticipatingcontinuedmonetarypolicyloosening.TheEuropeanCentralBankcutitskeypolicyrateto2.25%inApril,theseventhcutithas

sinceJune2024.28Ithasbeenhelpedbyafavourableinflationenvironment,whichwilllikelygiveittheroomtocontinueloweringrates:accordingtochiefeconomists,inflationisexpectedtoremainmoderate(54%)orlow(31%)thisyear.EastAsiaandthePacificFigure11.Chinaintheremainderof202569201142692011422730weak Weak Moderate Strong stronglow Low Moderate High highLooser Unchanged TighterLooser Unchanged Tighter73872713InflationFiscalpolicyMonetarypolicySource:ChiefEconomistsSurvey.(2025,April).26Foy,H.&Hall,B.(2025).Tagesschau.de(2025).

Storbeck,O.&Smith,I.(2025).ChinahastargetedGDPgrowthof5%for2025.Thisisunchangedfromitstargetfor2024,butitislikelytobemoredifficulttoachievegiventheroilingoftheglobaltradelandscapeinrecentmonths.Amongchiefeconomistssurveyed,69%expectmoderategrowth,whileanother20%anticipatethatgrowthwillremainweakfortherestof2025.ThereisnoclearconsensusamongthemonwhetherChinawillultimatelyreachits5%growthtarget;theIMFrecentlyreviseditsforecast

forthisyeardownto4%,butthiswasbeforethede-escalationofUS-ChinatradetensionsinMay.29Itremainstobeseenhowmuchreliefthisde-escalationwillbutitisimportanttonotethatdespitethetemporaryreductionofbilateraltariffsby115percentagepoints,theUSisstillimposingadditional30%tariffsonmanyimportedgoodsfromChina(withChinamaintaininga10%tariffonmanygoodsimportedfromtheUS).30Figure12.China’s5%targetLookingaheadtotheremainderof2025,doyouagree/disagreewiththefollowing?Stronglydisagree Disagree Uncertain Agree Stronglyagree19 3323019 3323016Shareofrespondents(%)Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey.(2025,April).ThevastmajorityofrespondentsexpectlooserfiscalandmonetarypolicyinChina,with87%and73%anticipatingmoreaccommodativestances,respectively.MonetarypolicyinChinamustcontendwithlongstandingdeflationaryrisks,reflectedinthefactthat69%ofrespondentsexpectloworverylowinflationthisyear.Onthefiscalside,thegovernment’slatestfiscalpackageaimstosupportdemandbyraisingthedeficitto4%andincreasingthespendingcapacityoflocalgovernments.31

ConsumerconfidenceinMarch2025remainedwellbelowlevelsseenintheUSandtheEurozone.32Therealestatesectorcontinuestoweighontheoutlook,aseffortstoaddressexcessleveragestabilizehousingmarketshaveresultedsubduedinvestmentandongoingfinancialstressamongpropertydevelopers.33Atsametime,China’sinnovationecosystemremainsdynamic,34withstronggrowthinartificialintelligence(AI)35andotherfrontiertechnologiesprovidingacounterbalancetobroadereconomicchallenges.InternationalMonetaryFund(IMF).(2025b).Sevastopulo,D.etal.31Li,Q.(2025).InternationalMonetaryFund(IMF).(2025b).TheEconomist.34Allen,G.C.(2025).TheEconomist.(2025g).Figure13.EastAsiaandthePacificintheremainderof2025EconomicInflationFiscalpolicy

6161309weak Weak Moderate Strong strong31663166357low Low Moderate High high574343Monetary

Looser Unchanged Tighter48 524852Looser Unchanged TighterSource:ChiefEconomistsSurvey.(2025,April).InthewiderEastAsiaandthePacificregion,economiesarenavigatingacomplexexternalenvironmentmarkedbyslowingglobaltrade,supplychainadjustmentsandgeopoliticaltensions.Mostchiefeconomistsexpectgrowthtobemoderate(61%)orweak(30%).Inflationintheregionisexpectedtomoderatebyalmosttwo-thirds(66%)of

respondents.TheBankofJapan’sgradualnormalizationofmonetarypolicyisbeingcloselyobserved,aspolicy-makersseektobalanceinflationmanagementwithsupportforeconomicactivity.36Whilegrowthinthecountryremainsmuted,therearepositivesigns–thelatestprojectionof0.6%growthin2025isanaccelerationfrom0.1%in2024.37LatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanFigure14.LatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanintheremainderof2025weak Weak Moderate Strong strongweak Weak Moderate Strong stronglow Low Moderate High highLooser Unchanged TighterLooser Unchanged Tighter503935555573868211110InflationFiscalpolicyMonetarypolicy11Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey.(2025,April).11Lewis,L.&Dempsey,H.(2025).InternationalMonetaryFund(IMF).(2025b).Amajorityofchiefeconomistssurveyed(55%)expectweakgrowthinLatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanfortheremainderof2025.Theregioncontinuestofacetighterglobalfinancialconditions,slowingdemandfromkeytradingpartnersandpersistentgeopoliticaltensions,allofwhichareweighingoninvestmentandconsumerconfidence.InMarch2025,consumersentimentLatinAmericancountriesfellsharply.38Againstthisbackdrop,theIMFprojectsthat,afteramoderateexpansionof2.4%in2024,regionalgrowthwillslowto2.0%thisyear,followingadownwardrevisionof0.5percentagepointsattributabletoaconfluenceofexternalshocks,mostnotablytheimpositionofnewtariffsbyUS.Argentinastandsout,withsignsthataseriesoffiscalandstructuralreforms

startingtostabilizetheeconomy.39TheIMFexpectsArgentinatogrowby5.5%thisyear,withaslowdownininflationto35.9%in2025and14.5%in2026.40Fiscalspaceremainsconstrainedinmanyeconomiesintheregion,limitingpolicy-makers’abilitytocushionshocksorsupportgrowth.Overtwo-thirdsofchiefeconomistssurveyed(68%)expectfiscalpolicytoremainbroadlyunchanged.Inflationarypressuresareeasinginmuchoftheregionbutremainaconcerninanumberofcountries,particularlywherestructuralimbalancespersist.Acrosstheregionasawhole,38%ofrespondentsexpectinflationtoremainhigh,while55%anticipatemoderatelevels.Monetarypolicyisexpectedtoremaineitherunchanged(50%)orbecomelooser(39%),accordingtothesurveyedchiefeconomists.AfricaandtheMiddleEastFigure15.MiddleEastandNorthAfricaintheremainderof2025EconomicInflation

502822592219502822592219

Moderate Strong strongFiscalpolicyMonetary

low Low Moderate High high742274224Looser Unchanged Tighter38 623862Looser Unchanged TighterSource:ChiefEconomistsSurvey.(2025,April).38Ipsos.(2025).TheEconomist.(2025h).InternationalMonetaryFund(IMF).(2025b).ChiefChiefEconomistsOutlook1818ThechiefeconomistssurveyedremaindividedonthegrowthoutlookfortheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica,withhalfexpectingmoderategrowthintheregionfortheremainderof2025,while22%anticipatestronggrowthand28%expectweakgrowth.Recentdevelopmentsintheoilmarkethaveaddedtotheregion’schallenges:inApril2025,oilpricesfellbelow$60perbarrelandhaveremainednearthree-yearlows,puttingadditionalpressureonthepublicfinancesofoil-exportingeconomies.41

Manycountriesintheregioncontinuetonavigatethedualchallengesoffluctuatingenergypricesandongoingeffortstodiversifytheireconomies.42Acrosstheregion,inflationarypressuresaregraduallyeasingbutremainabovepre-COVID-19pandemiclevels.Fiscalspaceislimited,requiringpolicy-makerstocarefullybalancegrowthandstabilityobjectives.Mostchiefeconomistssurveyedexpectinflationtoremainmoderate(59%)andfiscalpolicytoremainbroadlyunchanged(74%).Figure16.Sub-SaharanAfricaintheremainderof2025EconomicInflation

452945291016561133weak Weak Moderate Strong strong561133FiscalpolicyMonetary

low Low Moderate High high447819Looser Unchange