2025年第三季度银行高管商业前景调查

Q32025

BANKEXECUTIVEBUSINESSOUTLOOKSURVEYREPORT

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Q32025IntraFiBankExecutiveBusinessOutlookSurvey|See

pastreports

&

additionalinsights

.

INTRODUCTION

W

elcometoIntraFi’sBankExecutiveBusinessOutlookSurveyreportforthethirdquarterof2025.Inthis

editionofthesurvey—the40thpublishedbyIntraFi—an

overwhelmingmajorityofbankerssayaFedgovernor

shouldonlyberemovedfromofficeifthereisproven

impropriety.WealsoaskedbankersabouttheimportanceoftheFed’sindependencerelativetopolicymaking,andaboutthird-partyriskmanagementpriorities.

Thisreport,withresponsesfrom441banks,discussestheseresultsandotherissuesinmoredetail.

Wehopetheinformationprovidedisinsightfulandhelpful.Asalways,ifyouhaveanythoughtsorquestions,please

contactRobBlackwell,ChiefContentOfficer&Headof

ExternalAffairs,at(866)776-6426,x3357,orvisitIntraF.

MARKJACOBSEN

Cofounder&CEOIntraFi

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

Ayearago,weaskedbankerswhat

changestheywouldfavortolimittheFed’s

independence.WhilesomebankerssupportedideaslikeshorteningtheappointmenttermoftheFedchair(24%),themajority(55%)wantedtokeepthestatusquo.Furthermore,only5%agreedwithrequiringtheFedtoconsultwiththepresidentoninterestratedecisions.

Today,bankerssupportprotectingthe

centralbank’sindependencefrompoliticalinterferenceevenmorestrongly.Ninety-

fivepercentreportthatmaintainingFed

independenceinconductingmonetarypolicyisimportant,with75%indicatingstrongsupport.

Alargemajorityofrespondents(88%)believeprovenimproperactivity(priortoorwhile

inoffice)istheonlystandardpresidents

shouldusetofireaFedgovernor.Only6%saidthatallegedbutunprovenimproperactivityisanacceptablestandard,andjust4%agreedthatanythingthepresident

determinesisacceptableisappropriate

causeforremoval.TheSupremeCourtisexpectedtoissuearulingonthisquestionwhenTrumpv.Cookisheardthisterm.

LookingbeyondtheFed,bankshandle

largeamountsofhighlysensitivepersonalandfinancialdata,includingsocialsecurity

3

EXECUTIVESUMMARY(CONTINUED)

numbers,creditcarddetails,andtransactionhistories.Asregulatedinstitutions,banksareexpectedtoinvestinandmaintainrobust

securitymeasuresandprotocols.Therefore,whenselectingthird-partyvendors,itisnotsurprisingthatbankerslistthepotentialforcustomerdatabreachesastheirtopconcern(47%),followedcloselybyvendorproblemsorfailuresthatcouldcausereputational,

operational,monetary,orregulatoryrisks

(38%).Notably,only7%listedunanticipatedexpensesastheirforemostconcern.

Alongthosesamelines,understanding

cybersecurityrisks,particularlyanypotentialvulnerabilitiesconcerningconfidential

consumerdata,isthemostimportantfactor(52%)forbankerswhenmanagingtheir

interactionswiththird-partyvendors.◆

HIGHLIGHTS

DepositCompetition:Fifty-eightpercentofbankersindicatedepositcompetition

hasremainedsteady,andnearlythesamepercentage(57%)believeitwillremainthatwayforthenextyear.

FundingCosts:Amajority(77%)sawa

decreaseintheirbank’sfundingcosts

comparedto12monthsago,while80%

projecttheirbank’sfundingcostswilldropfurtherinthenext12months.

LoanDemand:Forty-sixpercentofbankersexperiencedhigherdemand.

Bankersareslightlymoreoptimisticaboutloandemandforthenext12months,withalmosthalf(47%)projectinganincrease.

AccesstoCapital:Seventy-four

percentnotethattheiraccessto

capitalhasremainedsteady.Roughlythesamenumber(75%),expectno

changeforthenext12months.

37%

predictdeposit

competitiontoincrease

80%

predictadeclineinfundingcosts

47%

expectthatloan

demandwillimprove

BANKERPERSPECTIVES4

BankerPerspectives

Eachquarter,weposeaseriesofquestionsbasedoncurrenteventsaffectingthe

bankingsector.ThisquarterweaskedaboutissuesrelatedtotheFed’sindependenceas

wellasbankers’prioritieswhenitcomestothird-partyrisk.

STANDARDFORREMOVINGFEDGOVERNORS

TheFederalReserveAct,whichestablishedtheagencyitselfin1913,empowersthepresidenttoremoveFedgovernorsforcause.”Inyourview,whatstandardshouldbeusedbyfuture

presidentstodeterminewhenitisappropriatetofireaFedgovernorforcause?

4%

Anythingthepresidentdeterminesiscause(a)

Allegedbutunprovenimproperactivity

whileinoffice(b)

1%

88%

Provenimproperactivitypriortoorwhileinoffice(d)

6%

Both“b”and“c”

0%

Allegedbutunprovenactivitypriortotakingoffice(c)

Astrongmajorityofrespondents(88%)statethatfuturepresidentsshouldonlyremoveaFed

governorinthecaseofproven,andnotalleged,impropriety.Only4%indicatedthatthePresidenthascompletediscretiontodetermine”cause.”

BANKERPERSPECTIVES5

FEDCONTROLOFMONETARYPOLICY

Inrecentweeks,somepolicymakershavequestionedthevalueofFedindependencewithregardtomonetarypolicy,suggestingitmaynolongerbenecessary.Inyourview,how

importantisFedindependencetoitsabilitytocarryoutitsmonetarypolicyresponsibilities?

20%

75%

Veryimportant

Somewhatimportant

unimportant

3%

Somewhat

2%

Veryunimportant

Closeto100%ofbankerssurveyedagreethatitisimportanttoprotect

monetarypolicyfrompoliticalinterference.Ninety-fivepercentsaythe

Fed’sindependenceinregardtomonetarypolicyisimportant,with75%ofrespondentsnotingthisisveryimportant.Only5%,whichwereexclusivelybankersatinstitutionswithunder$1billioninassets,sayFedcontrolof

monetarypolicyisnotveryorsomewhatimportant.

BANKERPERSPECTIVES6

FEDCONTROLOFREGULATORYPOLICYMAKING

Inyourview,howimportantisFedindependencewhenitcomestobankregulatorypolicymaking?

35%

Somewhat

important

Veryimportant

56%6%int

2%

Veryunimportant

BankerswerealmostasunifiedonthequestionofFedauthorityoverregulatorypolicy.Morethanhalf(56%)sayitisveryimportant(and35%statethatitis

somewhatimportant)thattheFederalReservehasindependentcontrolover

regulatorypolicymaking.Just6%thinkitissomewhatunimportant,while2%feelitisveryunimportant.

BANKERPERSPECTIVES7

IMPORTANCEOFMANAGINGRISK:UNDERSTANDINGCYBERSECURITYRISKS1

Banksthatfailtoadequatelyvetandoverseetheirthird-partyvendorsarehighlylikelytodrawunfavorableregulatoryattention.Pleaseranktheimportanceofmanagingthefollowingthird-

partyrisksfromgreatestimportance(1)toleast(4).

Understanding cybersecurityrisks,particularlyvulnerabilityofconfidentialconsumerdata

Accuratelyevaluatingathirdparty’sresourcesandexperience

Assessingathirdparty’s resilienceandabilitytooperatethroughdisruptionandeconomiccrises

Separatingsalespufferyfromfacts

26%

52%

15%6%

25%

44%

5%

60%

26%

17%

32%

12%

39%

5%

76%

9%

9%

mMostimportantm2nd3rdLeastimportant

Managingthird-partyriskiscrucialforprotectingbanksfromfinancial,reputational,andoperationaldamage.Whenitcomestomanagingthird-partyrisks,amajority

identifyunderstandingcybersecurityrisks,particularlyvulnerabilitiesofconfidentialconsumerdata,asthemostimportantfactor(52%).

[1]Thesamplesizeforthisquestionis243bankexecutives.

BANKERPERSPECTIVES8

IMPORTANCEOFMANAGINGRISK:CUSTOMERDATA

Whatareyourbiggestworrieswhenchoosingathird-partyvendor?Pleaserankthefollowingconcernsfromgreatestconcern(1)toleast(4).

Customerdatabreach

Vendorproblems/failureandrelatedreputational, operational,monetary®ulatoryrisktobank

Vendorfailuretokeepupwithtechadvancesbynotinvestinginitsownsystems

Hiddenorunanticipatedexpenses

47%32%14%6%

38%40%14%8%

8%16%47%29%

7%12%25%57%

mTopconcernm2nd3rdLowestConcern

Banksinvestheavilytoprotectcustomerdata,soit’snotsurprisingthatcustomerdatabreachesarethetopconcern(47%)whenselectingthird-partyvendors.Thisisfollowedcloselybyvendorproblemsorfailuresthatcouldcausereputational,

operational,monetary,orregulatoryrisks(38%).Hiddenorunanticipatedexpensesistheleastconcerningfactorformorethanhalf(57%)ofbankers.

Q32025IntraFiBankExecutiveBusinessOutlookSurvey|See

pastreports

&

additionalinsights

.

9%45%45%9%55%45%

TOPLINES9

Toplines

Thisisatoplineoverviewofbankerexpectationsfor

the12monthsaheadinfourkeycategories.

DEPOSITCOMPETITIONFUNDINGCOSTS

7%Improved

80%

Improved

3%

Worse

17%

57%

Same

37%

Worse

Same

LOANDEMANDACCESSTOCAPITAL

3%Worse

14%

Worse

47%

22%

Improved

Improved

75%

39%

Same

Same

Q32025IntraFiBankExecutiveBusinessOutlookSurvey|See

pastreports

&

additionalinsights

.

QUARTERLYQUESTIONS10

DEPOSITCOMPETITION

Thirty-twopercentofrespondingbankersreportanincreaseindepositcompetitionoverthepastyear,consistentwith31%whosaidthesamelastquarter.Lookingahead12months,93%predictdeposit

competitionwillincreaseorstaythesame—thesamepercentageaslastquarter.

Experience

Comparedto12MonthsPrior

32%

Worse

10%

Improved58%

Same

Expectation

Looking12MonthsAhead

37%

7%

Improved

Worse

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FUNDINGCOSTS

Agrowingnumberofbankersarereportinglowerfundingcosts.Some77%ofbankersnotedtheirfundingcostshaddroppedoverthepastyear,comparedtoonly24%inthethirdquarterof2024,a53-pointswing.Eightypercentofbankerssayfundingcostswillcontinuetodeclineforthenext

12months,reflectingthewidespreadbeliefthattheFedhasnotyetfinishedloweringinterestrates.

Experience

Comparedto12MonthsPrior

Same77%

15%

9%

Improved

Worse

Expectation

Looking12MonthsAhead

17%

Same

3%.80%

WorseImproved

QUARTERLYQUESTIONS11

LOANDEMAND

Sincehittingalowpointof25%inthefirstquarterof2023,thepercentageofbankersexperiencinggreaterloandemandhasgrown.Thisquarter46%ofbankersnotehigherloandemandcomparedto45%inthe

secondquarterof2025.Theexpectationforgreaterloandemandoverthenext12monthsis47%,marginallyhigherthanlastquarter(45%),but6pointslowercomparedtoayearago(thethirdquarterof2024).

Experience

Comparedto12MonthsPrior

30%

Same

25%

Worse

Expectation

Looking12MonthsAhead

39%

Same

14%

Worse

ACCESSTOCAPITAL

Seventy-fourpercentofrespondentsreporttheirbanks’accesstocapitalhasremainedunchangedoverthelast12months,down7pointsfromthethirdquarterof2024.Seventy-fivepercentofbankersexpecttheirabilitytoaccesscapitaltoremainthesame.Thisnumberhasnotdeviatedmorethan2pointsin

eitherdirectionforthelast18months.

Experience

Comparedto12MonthsPrior

Improved

22%

3%

Worse

7

Expectation

Looking12MonthsAhead

Improved

3%

Worse

22%

QUARTERLYQUESTIONS12

OVERALLECONOMICCONDITIONS

Thenumberofbankerswhoreportthateconomicconditionshaveimprovedhititshighestlevelsincethefirstquarterof2022.Thirty-sixpercentofbankerssayeconomicconditionsimprovedoverthelast12months,comparedto16%ayearago.Lookingout12months,thepercentageofrespondentswhoexpectoveralleconomicconditionstoimprovereached32%,a7-pointincreasecomparedtothethirdquarterof2024.

Experience

Comparedto12MonthsPrior

Improved

22%

Worse

36%

Expectation

Looking12MonthsAhead

Improved

31%

Worse

32%

60

EXPECTATION

OVERALL

50

ECONOMIC

CONDITIONS

OVERTIME

EXPERIENCE

40

Thisquarter,bankers’

reportedexperiencesover

thepast12months,andtheir

expectationsfortheyear

ahead,bothrosesolidly.

30

Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3

202320242025

Q32025IntraFiBankExecutiveBusinessOutlookSurvey|See

pastreports

&

additionalinsights

.

INDICES13

INDICES

IntraFi’sproprietaryBankExperienceIndexSMremainedover50forthefourthconsecutivequarter,landingat56,almost2pointshigherthanthesecondquarterof2025.Meanwhile,theBank

ConfidenceIndexSMmeasured56.7,ajumpof1.6pointsfromthepriorquarter.

60

50

40

30

56.7

56.0

BANK

CONFIDENCE

INDEX

50.5

EXPECTATION

FOROVERALL

ECONOMIC

CONDITIONS

BANK

EXPERIENCE

oINDEX

Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3

202320242025

TheBankExperienceIndexismeanttoquantifybankers’experienceslookingbackoverthelast12months,whiletheBankConfidenceIndexismeanttoquantifybankers’forward-lookingexpectationsforthebankingindustryforthe12monthsahead.Theexpectationforoveralleconomicconditionsisacompositeofbroadexpectationsforthenext12months.

TheseindicesarecalculatedfromresponsesbyCEOs,presidents,CFOs,andCOOstosurveyquestionsrelatingtofourkeyfactors:accesstocapital,loandemand,fundingcosts,anddepositcompetition.

Chartedonascaleof0-100,ascoreof50representsthebaselineexpectation.

TheBankConfidenceIndexandBankExperienceIndexareproprietaryindicesofIntraFi,calculatedusingIntraFi’s

prop