新兴内存市场的未来前景 Future Scenarios for Emerging Memory Markets

FutureScenariosforEmergingMemory

Markets

Rev1

MarkWebb

MKWVenturesConsultingLLC

NewMemories

•Inpreviouspresentations(FMS)wehaveshownWHYEmergingmemoriesdonoteverreallyemerge

•TheyneedtobeNiche,Embedded,ornocostaddertoDRAM/NAND

•LastyearwealsoshowedhowChipletsallowintegrationatlowcost

•Optaneshowedthatevenwithbillionsinspendingandsupportforecosystem,massacceptanceistooslowtobuildafabaround

•Wehavespreadsheetstoexplainwhyfinancesdon’tmakesense.

•Hencemostendupasnicheorabandoned

MemoryTechnologiesReviewed

UPDATEDScorecard:Wedon’tneedUniversal…LotsofYellow!

Latency

Density

Cost

HVMready

DRAM

*****

***

***

*****

NAND

*

*****

*****

*****

SRAM

*****

*

*

*****

NOR

***

**

**

*****

MRAM

****

**

**

****

RRAM

***

**

**

****

PCM(1T1R)

***

**

**

****

FEDRAM(Gb)

***+

***

***

*

Other

***

**

**

*

MKWVenturesModel

3

CostsforAllMemoryTechnologiesOverTime

•Memorycostsdifferbyordersofmagnitude.Hugetradeoffs.

•SRAMonleadingedgecostincreases.SRAMonN7nodecostdecreases

MKWVenturesCostModel

NOTE:SRAMisbasedoncostof2MBL2Cachemacrobasedonbitcost

StatusUpdatesIn2025

•MRAMandRRAMcontinuetohavetheirplaceandaregrowingslowly

•Embeddedoptionswithfoundrieslargeandsmall

•MRAMhasperformanceadvantages,RRAMcanbesimpler

•BotharemorecosteffectivethaneFLASHlongterm

•PhaseChangeisstillpublicizedbythosewithPCMexperience

•HistoricFerroElectric(<Gbit)stillusedbycompanieswhohaveusedit

•NoneareclosetoSRAM/DRAMinperformanceorNANDinCost.

•Noreplacement,nouniversalmemory…..YET

•Newertechnologiesareintheearlyphasesofdevelopment(Singlecell/Smallarrays).Theyare8+yearsfromproductization.

•WehavedetailsonProductlifecyclewithallthemilestones

Changesin2025

•Chipletsarebecomingmorewidespread

•Thisenables“specialmemory”tobeusedregardlessofotherprocesses.AIApplications

•UsedwithN2,N7,TSMC,Intelonsamebasedie….Withoutneedfortrueembedding.

•Onlya“lowCostAdder”with>90%reusefromDRAMorNANDprocesscanrampasahighvolumetechnology.

•FECapacitorDRAMistheidealcandidateduetotoolsandprocesses

•MicronPresentedNVDRAMwithFEStoragenode(NVMinDRAMprocess)atIEDMin2023.NoProductisbeingsampledatthistime

•FMC(FerroElectricMemoryCorporation)PublicizedFEbasedNVDRAMin2025.CachingandDRAMreplacementapplicationsformultipleapplications.PerformancematchingDRAM

•OthermemorycompaniesareworkingonHFbasedDRAMreplacementasthesimplest,mostcosteffectiveNVDRAMimplementation

•IfthememorytechnologydoesNOThave90%reuse,thedevelopmentcostsandmarketdynamicsPREVENTgrowthaboveanichemarket.

•HBMmarketgrowthhascausedmemorycompaniestochangeprioritiesandthismakessupportfornewmemoriesandmarketsdifficult

•Thisplus4F/3DDRAMhurtsnewmemoryfundinginmajorcompanies

ChipletHypothetical

FastNVM

DRAM

EnduranceNVM

LOGIC

NOR

SRAM

MISCMISCMISC

NAND/CXLDRAMoffChip

Chiplets

Interposer

Substrate

EmergingMemoryMarketRevenue

Anewpartitioning

•Existingtechnologies(MRAM,RRAM,PCM,FERAM)willbe99%oftherevenuethrough2030.OtherTechnologiesmayrampafterthat

•Embeddedismodelledbasedonamountofdieareaused

•Discreteisbrokenoutbychipletandnon-chiplet(thiscanblur)

•IFamemorycompanyreleasesaFEDRAM(LikeMicronorFMC),thatmarkethassignificantdiscreteandchipletapplications.PerformanceclosetoDRAM

CAGRthrough2030

40%Embedded

20%DiscreteNon-Chiplet50%DiscreteChiplet

50%+NVDRAM

Summary

•RRAM,MRAM,PCM,FE“maturememories”areoutandgrowingmodestly

•Newertechnologieshavenotemergedandare8+yearsfromHVMormeasurablerevenue

•FEbasedNVDRAMisthelikely“nocostadder”capableofhighvolume(OthersareNiche/embedded/Chiplet)

•Webreakoutmarketrevenuepossibilitiestoallowtheverydifferentimplementationstobetracked

•TotalRevenueforallEmergingMemorytechnologiesandsegmentsis$1Bin2030.$2BifweaddFENVDRAMtothemarke