培训课件：中国锌期货研究分析报告

ChinaZincFuturesResearch

Framework中国锌期货研究框架2025/12/3Summary概览MirrorConstructionInvestmentLong

TermKuznets

CycleCapacityCapacity,CapacityUtilization,OutputPolicy(Supply-sideReform,Lead

andZincIndustryFloor

Space

ofCompletedBuildingsLong

TermInventory7Standards)TransportationInvestment6111081AutomobileSalesPower

InvestmentMachinery

SalesZincPriceMiddle

TermShort

TermSupplyDemandMacroeconomy,Economic

Policy,ItsOwn

Cycle39Medium

toShortTermSmelterOperatingRate,SmeltingOutput,

Year-on

-YearGrowth3521210AutumnandWinterProductionRestrictionProfitCostPackagingIndustryElectricityPriceExports4ZincOrePositiveFeedback11ZincOtherMaterialsPowderNegativeFeedbackSources：CITIC

FuturesThisreport

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trading

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MacroDemand宏观需求Relationship

between

Apparent

ZincConsumption

andGDP锌表观消费量与GDP的关系▫

GDPandfixed

asset

investment

(FAI)

are

correlatedwith

the

long-termtrend

ofzinc

demand.800600400200锌表观消费：万吨y=253.22ln(x)

-2778R²=0.957ApparentZinc

Consumption:10,000

tons▫

Changesin

the

economic

structure

affect

steelconsumption

intensityperunitofGDP/fixed

asset

investment.

However,

both

the

difficulty

anderrorofestimation

are

relatively

large,

and

short-termdemand

cannot

bejudged

accurately.▫

GDP和固定资产投资与锌需求的长期趋势相关。▫

经济结构变化影响单位GDP/固投耗钢强度，但预估难度和误差均较大，且无法判断短期需求。1000003000005000007000009000001100000GDP:亿元Relationship

between

Apparent

ZincConsumption

andFAITrendsin

ZincConsumption

perUnit

ofGDPandFAI锌表观消费量与固定投资额的关系单位GDP耗锌量与单位固投耗锌量走势800600400200锌表观消费：万吨单位GDP耗锌量（吨/亿元）单位固投耗锌量（吨/亿元）6050403020100y=178.22ln(x)

-1704.8ZincConsumption

per

UnitofFixed

AssetInvestment(tons/100

million

yuan)Apparent

Zinc

Consumption:10,000

tonsZincConsumption

perUnitof

GDP

(tons/100million

yuan)R²=0.9732100000200000300000400000500000600000700000200320052007200920112013201520172019固定投资额：亿元Sources：

SMM

Wind

CITIC

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MacroDemand宏观需求▫

Apparent

consumption

isthebasisof

actualconsumption

and

can

relatively

truly

reflect

changes

inconsumption.

Actualdemand

can

bereflected

by

apparent

consumption

pluszinc

socialinventory.▫

表观消费是实际消费的基础，可较为真实的反应消费变化。实际需求可通过表观消费+锌社会库存反应。China'sApparent

ZincConsumption

Unit:10,000

tonsChina'sZincSocialInventoryUnit:

10,000

tons中国锌表观消费

单位：万吨中国锌社会库存

单位：万吨3025201510520252024202320222025

2024

2023

2022706050403020100012345678910111216111621263136414651Sources：

SMM

Wind

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Sector

Demand行业需求Sources：CITIC

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Sector

Demand行业需求▫

The

operating

rateofprimary

zinc

consumption

indirectly

reflects

the

strength

ofzinc

consumption.

Among

them,

galvanizing

processingaccounts

for

66%,die-castingalloy

for

15%,copperalloy

for

12%,zinc

saltsfor

2%,

andbatteriesfor

1%.▫

Inend-use

zinc

consumption,

infrastructure

andrealestate

arethe

main

components.

Specifically,

infrastructure

accounts

for

26%,

realestatefor

21.5%,

transportation

for

18%,householdgoodsfor

14%,and

machinery

for

6.5%.▫▫锌初端消费开工率间接反映锌消费强弱，其中镀锌加工占比66%，压铸合金占比15%，铜合金占比12%，锌盐占比2%，电池占比1%。锌终端消费中基建与地产占主要部分，其中基础设施占比26%，地产占比21.5%，交通占18%，家用品占14%，机械占6.5%。Distribution

of

PrimaryZincConsumptionDistribution

of

End-Use

ZincConsumption锌的初端消费分布锌的终端消费分布镀锌

压铸合金铜合金

锌盐

电池

其他基础设施建筑

交通

家用品

机械

农业

其他电池,2%Batteries锌盐,4%Zincsalts其他,1%Others其他,8.5%Others农业,5.5%Agriculture铜合金

12%Copper

alloy机械,6.5%Machinery基础设施,26.0%Infrastructure家用品,14.0%压铸合金

15%Die-casting

alloyHousehold

Goods镀锌,66%建筑,21.5%ConstructionGalvanizing交通,18.0%TransportationSources：SMM

Wind

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Sector

Demand:

Real

Estate行业需求：房地产▫

The

realestate

cycle

is

highlycorrelatedwith

the

zinc

pricecycle:

realestate

investment

andnewconstruction

startsare

basically

synchronizedwith

the

zinc

pricecycle.▫

房地产周期和锌价周期高度相关：房地产投资和新开工基本同步于锌价周期。RealEstate

Investmentisbasically

synchronized

withzincpricesRealestate

new

starts

are

also

basically

synchronized

with

zincprices房地产投资基本同步于锌价房地产新开工也基本同步于锌价房地产开发投资完成额:累计同比RealEstateDevelopmentInvestmentCompletion:Cumulative

Axis)Year-on-Year锌价（元/吨，右轴）ZincPrice

(Yuan/ton,

Right

30000房屋新开工面积:累计同比锌价（元/吨，右轴）ZincPrice

(Yuan/ton,

RightAxis)5040302010080604020030000250002000015000100005000NewHousing

ConstructionArea:

CumulativeYear-on-Year25000200001500010000500002014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024-202014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024-10-40-60-200Sources：Wind

CITIC

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Sector

Demand:

Infrastructure行业需求：基建▫

Before

2011,

realestate

andinfrastructure

grewrapidly.

After

the

2008

globalfinancialcrisis,infrastructure

investment

graduallybecame

themain

sector

for

zinc

demand.

After

2011,infrastructure

servedas

atoolfor

counter-cyclical

adjustment,

and

thepositivecorrelationbetween

zincconsumption

and

infrastructure

investment

growthremained

significant.In

recent

years,

with

stringentregulationonthe

real

estate

sector,

thegrowthrate

ofrealestate

development

hasremained

atalow

level,

while

infrastructure

hasbeenrelatively

weakduetoconstraints

from

localgovernments'

debt

resolution.▫

2011年前，房地产和基建快速增长，2008年金融危机后基建投资逐渐成为支撑锌需求的主要因素。2011年后，基建成为逆周期调整的手段，锌消费和基建投资增速的正相关仍然明显。近几年地产强监管，房地产开发增速处于低位，但基建受制于地方政府化债相对较弱。Infrastructure

investmenthasbecome

a

means

of

counter-cyclical

adjustment.Zincconsumption

is

positivelycorrelatedwithinfrastructureinvestment.基建投资成为了逆周期调整的手段锌消费与基建投资正相关固定资产投资完成额:基础设施建设投资:累计同比基础设施投资建设额同比增速锌表观消费增速605050403020100房地产开发投资完成额:累计同比30%25%20%15%10%5%YoYGrowth

Rate

ofInfrastructureInvestmentConstructionVolumeFixed

AssetInvestmentCompletion:InfrastructureConstruction

Investment:CumulativeYear-on-Year403020100-10-20-30-400%RealEstateDevelopmentInvestmentCompletion:CumulativeYear-on-Year2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024-5%-10%-15%-10-20YoYGrowth

Rate

of

ApparentZincConsumption2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024Sources：

SMM

Wind

CITIC

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report本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。121.2.3

Sector

Demand:

Home

Appliances

and

Automobiles行业需求：家电汽车▫

Galvanizing

is

widely

used

inautomobile

bodies,bodypanels,exhaust

pipes,fuel

tanks,

cargo

containers,

etc.The

higherthe

grade

ofthevehicle,thegreaterthedemand

for

galvanizing.

The

automotive

industrywill

be

akey

market

for

galvanized

sheets

in

the

future.▫

Zincdemand

in

the

automotive

industryismainlyassessed

based

onautomobile

productionand

salesvolume

(seasonality),

industry

policies,inventorylevels,

and

otherfactors.▫

汽车车身、覆盖件、排气管、油箱、货柜等广泛镀锌。车型越高档，镀锌需求量越高。汽车行业是未来镀锌板的重要发展方向。▫

主要通过汽车产销量（季节性）、行业政策、库存情况等来观测汽车的用锌需求。There

is

aconsistency

between

zincprice

changes

andautomobile

salesvolume.Zincdemandin

automobile

production

increases

with

the

elevation

of

vehicle

classes.锌价变化与汽车销量有良好的一致性汽车生产中锌需求量随车型等级升高而增加车企AutoMaker冷轧板Cold

RolledSheet热镀锌HotDipGalvanized电镀锌Electrogalvanized镀锌合计TotalGalvanized锌现货价格同比ZincSpotPrice

Year-on-Year销量:汽车:累计同比AutoSales:CumulativeYear-on-Year车型Model10080高档车型PremiumModel

A400400300360200230210260300100705003302803906040上海大众ShanghaiVW中档车型Mid-rangeModel

B200小型车CompactCarC-20-40-60中档车型Mid-rangeB一汽大众FAW

VW130Sources：

Wind

CITIC

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Sector

Demand:

Home

Appliances

and

Automobiles行业需求：家电汽车▫

Realestate

affects

many

industries

such

asautomobiles,

machinery,

and

home

appliances,and

their

prosperity

is

highlycorrelated

with

realestate

sales.▫

The

cyclical

consistency

betweenthe

realestate

industry,

theautomotive

industry,

andthe

home

applianceindustrymeans

that

thedownstreamterminaldemand

for

zinc

is

prone

toresonate.▫

房地产影响着汽车、机械、家电等众多行业，相关行业景气度和地产销售高度相关。▫

房地产行业与汽车家电行业周期的一致性，意味着锌下游终端需求容易共振。Thesalescycles

ofrealestate

andautomobiles

arebasicallyThecyclesof

realestateandzincleadthesalescycleofhomeappliances.synchronized,

andtheylead

zincprices.房地产和汽车销售周期基本同步，领先于锌价房地产和锌周期领先于家电销售周期商品房销售面积:累计同比销量:汽车:当月同比锌现货价格同比中国:产量:空调:当月同比中国:商品房销售面积:累计同比35030025020015010050Commercial

HousingSalesArea:

CumulativeYear-on-YearZincSpotPriceYear-on-YearChina:

Output:

AirCommercial

Housing

SalesArea:CumulativeYear-on-YearAutoSales:MonthlyYear-on-Year锌价同比120100806040200ZincPrice

Conditioners:

MonthlyYear-on-YearYear-on-Year02014201520162017201820192020202120222018201920202021202220232024-20-40-60-50-100Sources：Wind

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Sector

Demand:

Exports行业需求：出口▫

Zincexports

aredominated

byindirectexports,

while

thevolume

ofdirectexports

islimited.▫

Directexports

aresignificantlyaffected

by

domestic

and

foreign

pricespreads;

indirectexports

arerelatedtothe

overseas

economy,

and

theaveragemanufacturing

PMI

of

Europeand

theUnitedStatesleadstheexport

valueofChina'smechanical

equipment

by

about

5months.▫

锌出口以间接出口为主，直接出口量有限。▫

直接出口受内外价差显著影响；间接出口和海外经济相关，欧美制造业PMI均值领先于中国机械设备出口金额约5个月。Proportion

ofZincDirect

Exports

andProportion

ofZinc

Indirect

ExportsZincindirect

exports

are

highlycorrelated

with

the

overseaseconomy.锌直接出口占比及间接出口占比Automotive

and锌间接出口和海外经济高度相关Home

Appliances机械设备出口金额累计同比（滞后5个月）欧美PMI均值Average

PMIof

Europeand

the

UnitedStatesCumulativeYoYof

MechanicalEquipmentExport

Value

(Lagged

by5

Months)HardwareAccessoriesand

Terminal806040200706560555045403530PrimaryGalvanizedProductsDomesticConsumptionExportConsumption-20-40OtherPrimaryConsumer

GoodsBatteries

Tires200520072009201120132015201720192021Sources：

Antaike

Wind

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of

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report本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。151.3

DemandIndicator需求观测指标行业Industry指标M1IndicatorM1频率月度月度月度月度月度月度月度月度月度月度周度周度月度月度月度月度月度月度周度月度月度月度月度月度周度日度FrequencyMonthlyMonthlyMonthlyMonthlyMonthlyMonthlyMonthlyMonthlyMonthlyMonthlyWeekly流动性LiquidityM2M2社会融资TotalSocialFinancing房地产销售RealEstate

Sales房地产新开工New

RealEstate

ConstructionRealEstate

DevelopmentInvestmentRealEstate

ConstructionAreaLandPurchase

Area房地产开发投资房地产施工面积土地购置面积房地产RealEstate70个大中城市新建商品住宅价格指数71个大中城市二手住宅价格指数30大中城市商品房销售面积百城土地成交面积基建投资New

CommercialHousing

Price

Index

in

70Large

andMediumCitiesSecond-handHousing

Price

Index

in

71Large

andMediumCitiesCommercialHousing

Sales

Area

in

30Large

andMediumCitiesLandTransactionArea

in

100CitiesInfrastructure

InvestmentWeeklyMonthlyMonthlyMonthlyMonthlyMonthlyMonthlyWeekly基建机械InfrastructureMachinery企业中长期贷款地方政府专项债发行额挖掘机销量Corporate

MediumandLong-termLoansLocalGovernmentSpecialBond

IssuanceExcavatorSales重卡销量Heavy

TruckSales汽车销量Auto

SalesAutomotive

andHome

Appliances汽车家电乘联会汽车销量家电销量PassengerFederation

Auto

SalesHome

Appliance

SalesMonthlyMonthlyMonthlyMonthlyMonthlyWeekly制造业投资ManufacturingInvestmentManufacturingandExport制造业和出口锌海外制造业PMI出口同比Overseas

ManufacturingPMIExportYear-on-Year主要初端行业开工主要初端行业开工全胜+南储出库ConstructionofMajorPrimaryIndustriesConstructionofMajorPrimaryIndustriesQuansheng

+

Nanpu

Warehouse

OutboundZincDailySources：Wind

SMM

CITIC

FuturesThisreport

isnot

aservice

under

the

futures

trading

consulting

business.

Theopinions

andinformation

provided

are

for

reference

only

and

donot

constituteinvestment

adviceto

anyone.

CITIC

Futures

do

not

consider

relevant

personnel

as

clientdueto

the

attention,

receipt,

orreading

of

this

report本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。1602Supply供给2.1

Capacity

Deployment投放产能▫

Chinaisthe

key

tochanges

inglobalzinc

refining

capacity.

Since2017,

China’s

zinc

refining

capacityhaspeaked,

with

effective

capacitymaintainingahighand

stablelevel

of

6.5-6.7milliontonsin

recent

years.

Overseascapacity

hasshown

a

slight

contraction

trend:

CRU

datashowsit

peaked

at

8.81milliontonsin

2011,

shrank

to

around8.6

million

tonsfrom

2012to

2015,

andfurther

slidbelow8.5

million

tonsinrecentyears.▫

全球精锌产能的变化重点在中国。2017年以来中国精锌产能已达峰，近几年有效产能维持650-670万吨的高位平稳水平。国外产能呈现小幅收缩的态势，CRU数据显示2011年达到881万吨的高峰，2012-2015年收缩至860万吨左右，近几年产能进一步下滑至850万吨以下。GlobalRefined

ZincProduction

Unit:

10,000

tons全球精炼锌产量

单位：万吨GlobalRefined

ZincProduction

(10,000

tons)全球精炼锌产量（万吨）1393.371400139013801370136013501340133013201310130012901389.951380.021363.991362.021350.561335.231329.9920172018201920202021202220232024Sources：

Wind

SMM

CITIC

FuturesThisreport

isnot

aservice

under

the

futures

trading

consulting

business.

Theopinions

andinformation

provided

are

for

reference

only

and

donot

constituteinvestment

adviceto

anyone.

CITIC

Futures

do

not

consider

relevant

personnel

as

clientdueto

the

attention,

receipt,

orreading

of

this

report本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。182.2

EnergyConsumption

Policies能耗政策▫

In2021,

the

TwoSessions

set

anenergyconsumption

target:

a3%

reductioninenergyintensity

compared

with

2020.

With

energy

consumptionindicatorsassessed

across

regions,

domestic

zinc

supply-side

disruptionsincreased.

Productionrestrictionsbecame

the

most

directwaytoreduce

consumption

insome

areas,

with

prominent

contradictionsin

Yunnan,InnerMongolia

and

HunaninQ3.▫

Chinawill

implement

acarbon

levy,

requiringzinc

smelting

enterprises

topurchase

quotas.

Itis

expected

zinc

smelting

cost

pertonwill

increaseby

about155.4

yuan.▫

2021年“两会”定下能耗目标为能耗强度较2020年下降3%，对各地区的能耗指标进行考核，国内锌供给端干扰增加，且限产成为部分地区最直接的降耗方式，其中云南、内蒙古和湖南在第三季度矛盾较为突出。▫

国内将实施碳排放征收，锌冶炼企业将需要购买配额，预计每吨锌冶炼成本将增加约155.4元。China'sRefined

ZincProduction

Unit:

10,000

tonsDistribution

of

China'sZincSmeltingCapacity中国精炼锌产量

单位：万吨中国锌冶炼产能分布OthersQingHai中国精炼锌产量（万吨）青海,2.7%其他,9.1%Yun

NanChina'sRefined

ZincProduction(10,000

tons)7006005004003002001000辽宁,5.3%云南,16.4%Liao

NingHeNanGan

Su河南,6.4%甘肃,6.6%HuNan湖南,16.0%四川,7.3%Guang

Xi广西,11.0%Si

Chuan陕西,9.1%Shan

Xi内蒙,10.1%20172018201920202021202220232024NeiMengSources：

Wind

SMM

CITIC

FuturesThisreport

isnot

aservice

under

the

futures

trading

consulting

business.

Theopinions

andinformation

provided

are

for

reference

only

and

donot

constituteinvestment

adviceto

anyone.

CITIC

Futures

do

not

consider

relevant

personnel

as

clientdueto

the

attention,

receipt,

orreading

of

this

report本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。192.3

Profit-Driven利润驱动▫

Whether

it

is

before

orafter

supply-side

reform

andproduction

restrictions

for

environmentalprotection,

zincsmelting

outputhasalwaysbeen

generallydriven

byprofits.

Butaffected

bypolicies,

the

sensitivity

toprofit

fluctuations

haschanged.▫

供给侧改革和环保限产前后，锌冶炼产量总体均受利润驱动。但受政策影响，对利润波动的敏感程度会发生变化。Theactualprocessing

fee

hasapositive

impact

onsmelting

output

Unit:ZincSmelting

Profit

Related

toZinc

Price

andProcessing

FeeUnit:CNY/tonCNY/ton,

10,000

tons锌冶炼利润与锌价和加工费相关

单位：元/吨实际加工费对冶炼产出有正向影响

单位：元/吨、万吨SMM国产锌精矿周度加工费精炼锌企业生产利润实际加工费（滞后两个月）锌产量6个月移动平均SMMDomestic

ZincConcentrate

Weekly

TreatmentChargeActualTreatmentCharge(Lagged

by2Months)6-Month

Moving

Averageof

ZincProductionProduction

Profitof

Refined

ZincEnterprises600050004000300020001000025002000150010005009000700050003000100060555045400-500-1000-1500-2000-2500-30002023-032023-072023-112024-032024-072024-112025-03-1000-300035Sources：

Wind

SMM

CITIC

Futures2023-032023-072023-112024-032024-072024-112025-03Thisreport

isnot

aservice

under

the

futures

trading

consulting

business.

Theopinions

andinformation

provided

are

for

reference

only

and

donot

constituteinvestment

adviceto

anyone.

CITIC

Futures

do

not

consider

relevant

personnel

as

clientdueto

the

attention,

receipt,

orreading

of

this

report本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。2003Inventory库存3.1

Inventory-Price

Relationship库存-价格关系▫

Inventoryand

spot

pricessometimes

showa

positive

correlation.Duringeconomic

upturns,

traderstend

tostock

up,pushing

totalinventoryhigher;duringdownturns,tradersreduce

stockpiling,

leadingto

lower

totalinventory.▫

Inperiodsof

relatively

stabledemand,inventory

andpriceshaveaninverserelationship,withindustry

dynamicsdrivingprice

fluctuations.

That

is,risinginventoryleadstofallingprices,while

fallinginventory

pushes

pricesup.▫

库存和现货价格有时呈正向关系。经济上行阶段，贸易商倾向于囤货，总库存上升；经济下行阶段，贸易商减少囤货，总库存下降。▫

而在需求相对平稳的时期，库存呈现出和价格相反的关系，产业驱动决定价格波动。即库存上升，价格下跌；库存下降，价格上升。Positive

Correlation

Between

Priceand

Inventory

Unit:10,000

tons,

RMB/ton

Negative

Correlation

Between

Price

and

InventoryUnit:

10,000

tons,

RMB/ton价格和库存的正向关系时期

单位：万吨、元/吨价格和库存的负向关系时期

单位：万吨、元/吨5045403530252015105300002800026000240002200020000180001600014000120001000050454035302520151053000028000260002400022000200001800016000140001200010000锌社会库存ZincSocialInventory锌期货价格（连续）锌社会库存