国际财务管理（英文版·原书第9版） 课件 第2章　国际货币体系

TheInternationalMonetarySystemChapterTwoCopyright©2021bytheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.OverviewEvolutionoftheInternationalMonetarySystemBimetallism:Before1875ClassicalGoldStandard:1875-1914InterwarPeriod:1915-1944BrettonWoodsSystem:1945-1972FlexibleExchangeRateRegime:1973-PresentCurrentExchangeRateArrangementsEuroandEuropeanMonetaryUnionMexicanPesoCrisisAsianCurrencyCrisisArgentinePesoCrisisRiseofChineseRMBFixedversusFlexibleExchangeRateRegimes2-2Copyright©2021bytheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Internationalmonetarysystemwentthroughseveraldistinctstagesofevolution,summarizedasfollows:Bimetallism:Before1875Classicalgoldstandard:1875-1914Interwarperiod:1915-1944BrettonWoodssystem:1945-1972Flexibleexchangerateregime:Since19732-3Evolutionofthe

InternationalMonetarySystemCopyright©2021bytheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Bimetallismwasa“doublestandard”inthesensethatfreecoinagewasmaintainedforbothgoldandsilverCountriesonthebimetallicstandardoftenexperiencedthewell-knownphenomenonreferredtoasGresham’slawGresham’slawdictatesthat,underthebimetallicstandard,theabundantmetalwasusedasmoneywhilethescarcemetalwasdrivenoutofcirculation,becausetheratioofthetwometalswasofficiallyfixed2-4Bimetallism:Before1875Copyright©2021bytheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.ClassicalGoldStandard:1875-1914Firstfull-fledgedgoldstandard,amonetarysysteminwhichcurrenciesaredefinedintermsoftheirgoldcontent,

wasestablishedin1821inGreatBritainMajorityofcountriesmovedawayfromgoldin1914whenWorldWarIbeganUnderthegoldstandard,theexchangeratebetweenanytwocurrencieswillbedeterminedbythegoldcontents2-5Copyright©2021bytheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Supposethepound(£)ispeggedtogoldatsixpounds(£6)perounce,whereasoneounceofgoldisworth12francs(₣)£6=1oz.gold₣12=1oz.goldDeducingfromtheinformationgivenabove,£6mustequal₣126/12reducesto1/2;therefore£1=₣2Exchangeratebetweenthepoundandthefrancshouldthenbetwofrancsperpound2-6ClassicalGoldStandard:AnExampleCopyright©2021bytheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.2-7ClassicalGoldStandard:AdjustmentMechanismPrice-specie-flowmechanismwasanautomaticcorrectionofpaymentimbalancedbetweencountriesoperatingunderthegoldstandardBasedonthefactthatdomesticmoneystockrisesorfallsasthecountryexperiencesinflowsoroutflowsofgoldKeyshortcomingsofthegoldstandard:SupplyofnewlymintedgoldissorestrictedthatthegrowthofworldtradeandinvestmentcanbeseriouslyhamperedforlackofsufficientmonetaryreservesNomechanismtocompeleachmajorcountrytoabidebytherulesofthegameCopyright©2021bytheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.2-8InterwarPeriod:1915-1944WorldWarIendedtheclassicalgoldstandardinAugust1914MajorcountriesfollowedsterilizationofgoldpolicyCountrieswidelyused“predatory”depreciationsoftheircurrenciesasameansofgainingadvantagesintheworldexportmarketPeriodcharacterizedbyeconomicnationalism,halfheartedattemptsandfailuretorestorethegoldstandard,economicandpoliticalinstabilities,bankfailures,andpanickyflightsofcapitalacrossbordersCopyright©2021bytheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.2-9BrettonWoodsSystem:1945-1972NamedforaJuly1944meetingof44nationsatBrettonWoods,NewHampshirePurposeofmeetingwastodiscussanddesignthepostwarinternationalmonetarysystem(i.e.,BrettonWoodssystem)Describedasadollar-basedgold-exchangestandardTriffinparadoxexplainsthecollapseofthissystemintheearly1970sReserve-currencycountryshouldrunabalanceofpaymentsdeficit,butthiscandecreaseconfidenceinthereservecurrencyandleadtothedownfallofthesystemCopyright©2021bytheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.2-10TheDesignoftheGold-ExchangeSystemCopyright©2021bytheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.2-11TheFlexibleExchangeRateRegime:1973-PresentFlexibleexchangerateregimewasratifiedinJanuary1976whentheIMFmembersmetinJamaicaandagreedtoanewsetofrules,referredtoastheJamaicaAgreement:FlexibleexchangeratesweredeclaredacceptabletotheIMFmembers;centralbankscouldinterveneinexchangemarketstoironoutunwarrantedvolatilitiesGoldwasofficiallyabandoned(i.e.,demonetized)asaninternationalreserveassetNon-oil-exportingcountriesandless-developedcountriesweregivengreateraccesstoIMFfundsCopyright©2021bytheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.2-12TheTrade-WeightedValueoftheU.S.Dollarsince1964Copyright©2021bytheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.2-13CurrentExchangeRateArrangementsNoseparatelegaltenderCurrencyofanothercountrycirculatesasthesolelegaltender(e.g.,Ecuador,ElSalvador,andPanama)CurrencyboardAnextremeformofthefixedexchangerateregimeunderwhichlocalcurrencyisfullbackedbytheU.S.dollaroranotherchosenstandardcurrency(e.g.,HongJong,Bulgaria,andBrunei)ConventionalpegCountryformallypegsitscurrencyatafixedratetoanothercurrencyorbasketofcurrencies(e.g.,Jordan,SaudiArabia,andMorocco)StabilizedarrangementEntailsaspotmarketexchangeratethatremainswithinamarginof2%for6monthsormore(e.g.,Indonesia,Singapore,andLebanon)Copyright©2021bytheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.2-14CurrentExchangeRateArrangements(Continued)CrawlingpegInvolvestheconfirmationofthecountryauthorities’dejureexchangeratearrangement(e.g.,HondurasandNicaragua)Crawl-likearrangementExchangeratemustremainwithinanarrowmarginof2%relativetoastatisticallyidentifiedtrendfor6monthsormore(e.g.,Iran,China,andSerbia)PeggedexchangeratewithhorizontalbandsValueofcurrencyismaintainedwithincertainmarginsoffluctuationofatleast+/-1%aroundafixedcentralrate,orthemarginbetweenthemaximumandminimumvalueoftheexchangerateexceeds2%(e.g.,Tonga)Copyright©2021bytheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.2-15CurrentExchangeRateArrangements(Concluded)OthermanagedarrangementResidualcategoryusedwhentheexchangeratearrangementdoesnotmeethecriteriaforanyoftheothercategories(e.g.,Algeria,Cambodia,andSudan)FloatingLargelymarketdetermined,withoutanascertainableorpredictablepathfortherate(e.g.,Brazil,Korea,Turkey,India,SouthAfrica,andThailand)FreefloatingInterventionoccursonlyexceptionallyandaimstoaddressdisorderlymarketconditions;authoritiesconfirminterventionhasbeenlimitedtoatmost3instancesintheprevious6months,eachlastingnomorethan3businessdays(e.g.,Australia,Canada,Mexico,Japan,U.K.,U.S.,andeurozone)Copyright©2021bytheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.EuropeanMonetarySystemThechiefgoalsoftheEuropeanMonetarySystem(EMS)arethefollowing:Toestablisha“zoneofmonetarystability”inEuropeTocoordinateexchangeratepoliciesvis-à-visthenon-EMScurrenciesTopavethewayfortheeventualEuropeanmonetaryunionTwomaininstrumentsoftheEMS:EuropeanCurrencyUnit(ECU)ExchangeRateMechanism(ERM)2-16Copyright©2021bytheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.2-17TheEuroandtheEuropeanMonetaryUnion11of15EUcountriesadoptedacommoncurrency,theeuro,onJanuary1,1999EuropeanMonetaryUnion(EMU)createdEachnationalcurrencyoftheeuro-11countrieswasirrevocablyfixedtotheeuroataconversationrateasofJanuary1,1999EuronotesandcoinswereintroducedtocirculationonJanuary1,2002,whilenationalbillsandcoinswerebeinggraduallywithdrawnChangeovercompletedbyJuly1,2002Copyright©2021bytheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.2-18TheDollar-EuroExchangeRateCopyright©2021bytheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.TheDollar-EuroExchangeRateChangesCopyright©2021bytheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.ABriefHistoryoftheEuroMonetarypolicyforeurozonecountriesisnowconductedbytheEuropeanCentralBank(ECB)PrimaryobjectiveistomaintainpricestabilityIndependenceislegallyguaranteedEurosystemismadeupofECBandcentralbanksofeuro-zonecountries;tasksinclude:DefiningandimplementingcommonmonetarypolicyoftheUnionConductingforeignexchangeoperationsHoldingandmanagingofficialforeignreservesofeuromemberstates2-20Copyright©2021bytheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.BenefitsandCostsofMonetaryUnion2-21Copyright©2021bytheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.KeybenefitsReducedtransactioncostsEliminationofexchangerateuncertaintyEnhancedefficiencyandcompetitivenessoftheEuropeaneconomyConditionsconducivetothedevelopmentofcontinentalcapitalmarketswithdepthandliquiditycomparabletothoseoftheU.S.PoliticalcooperationandpeaceinEuropeMaincostLossofnationalmonetaryandexchangeratepolicyindependenceCurrencyCrisesThreemajorcurrencycrisesrevealedthefragilityoftheinternationalmonetarysystem(IMS)Mexicanpesocrisis(1994–1995)Asiancurrencycrisis(1997–1998)Argentinepesocrisis(2002)Copyright©2021bytheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.2-22TheMexicanPesoCrisisOnDecember20,1994,theMexicangovernmentannouncedaplantodevaluethepesoagainstthedollarby14percentThisdecisioncausedpesos,aswellasMexicanstocksandbonds,tobesoldrapidlyByearlyJanuary1995,thepesohadfallenagainsttheU.S.dollarbyasmuchas40percent,forcingtheMexicangovernmenttofloatthepesoPesocrisisrapidlyspilledovertootherLatinAmericanandAsianfinancialmarkets2-23Copyright©2021bytheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.U.S.DollarversusMexicanPesoExchangeRate

(November1,1994–January31,1995)

2-24Copyright©2021bytheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.TheMexicanPesoCrisis(Continued)MexicanPesocrisisisuniqueinthatitrepresentsthefirstseriousinternationalfinancialcrisistouchedoffbycross-borderflightofportfoliocapitalTwolessonsemerge:ItisessentialtohaveamultinationalsafetynetinplacetosafeguardtheworldfinancialsystemfromsuchcrisesMexicoexcessivelydependedonforeignportfoliocapitaltofinanceeconomicdevelopmentwhenahigherpriorityshouldhavebeenplacedonsavingdomestically2-25Copyright©2021bytheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.2-26TheAsianCurrencyCrisisFarmoreseriousthanthecrisesoftheEMSandMexicanpesointermsoftheextentofthecontagionandtheseverityoftheresultanteconomicandsocialcostsManyfirmswithforeigncurrencybondswereforcedintobankruptcyLedtoanunprecedentedlydeep,widespread,andlong-lastingrecessioninEastAsia,aregionthathasenjoyedthemostrapidlygrowingeconomyintheworldoverthelastfewdecadesCopyright©2021bytheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.AsianCurrencyCrisis2-27Copyright©2021bytheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Ascapitalmarketswereopened,largeinflowsofprivatecapitalresultedinacreditboomintheAsiancountriesFixedorstableexchangeratesalsoencouragedunhedgedfinancialtransactionsandexcessiverisk-takingbybothborrowersandlendersTherealexchangeraterose,whichledtoaslowdowninexportgrowth.Also,Japan’slong-lastingrecession(andyendepreciation)hurtneighboringcountries2-28OriginsoftheAsianCurrencyCrisisCopyright©2021bytheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.2-29OriginsoftheAsianCurrencyCrisis(Continued)IftheAsiancurrencieshadbeenallowedtodepreciateinrealterms(whichwasnotpossibleduetothefixedexchangerates),thesuddenandcatastrophicchangesinexchangeratesobservedin1997mighthavebeenavoidedEventually,somethinghadtogive—itwastheThaibhatSuddencollapseofthebhattouchedoffapanickyflightofcapitalfromotherAsiancountriesCopyright©2021bytheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Afixed,butadjustable,exchangerateisproblematicinthefaceofintegratedinternationalfinancialmarketsInvitesspeculativeattackatthetimeoffinancialvulnerabilityIncompatibletrinitysuggestsitisverydifficult,ifnotimpossible,tohaveallthreeconditions:AfixedexchangerateFreeinternationalflowsofcapitalIndependentmonetarypolicy2-30LessonsfromtheAsianCurrencyCrisisCopyright©2021bytheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.TheArgentinePesoCrisisInFebruary1991,theArgentinegovernmentpassedtheConvertibilityLaw,linkingthepesototheU.S.dollaratparityTheinitialeconomiceffectswerepositive:Argentina’schronicinflationwascurtaileddramatically,andforeigninvestmentbegantopourin,leadingtoaneconomicboomPesoappreciatedagainstmostcurrenciesastheU.S.dollarbecameincreasinglystrongerinthesecondhalfofthe1990s2-31Copyright©2021bytheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.TheArgentinePesoCrisis(Continued)AstrongpesohurtexportsfromArgentinaandcausedaprotractedeconomicdownturnthatledtotheabandonmentofpeso–dollarparityinJanuary2002Thischangecausedsevereeconomicandpoliticaldistressinthecountry:Unemploymentrateroseabove20percentInflationratereachedamonthlyrateof20percent2-32Copyright©2021bytheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.CollapseoftheCurrencyBoardArrangementinArgentina

2-33Copyright©2021bythe