2025年航空航天行业全景分析报告 Aerospace Industry Market Analysis

22I万WUHYUHY’s2025AerospaceMarketOutlookdeliversastrategicanalysisofthecurrenteconomicclimate,emergingindustrytrends,andtheevolvinglandscapeofmergersandacquisitionsacrosstheaerospacesector.Thisreporthighlightskeydevelopmentswithincommercialaviation,defense,aircargo,andgeneralaviation,offeringforward-lookinginsightstosupportinvestmentandoperationaldecision-making.OuranalysisdrawsfromtheFAA’sFiscalYear2025–2045AerospaceForecast,theInternationTransportAssociation’s(IATA)GlobalOutlook,andadditionalproprietaryindustrydatabasestoprovideacomprehensiveviewofmarketdynamicsshapingtheaerospaceindustryin2025andbeyond.IndustryOverview3GlobalEconomicOutlook4CommercialAviation8GeneralAviation20AerospaceM&AActivity24In2024,theaerospaceindustrysustaineditsupwardtrajectory,recordingglobalrevenuesofapproximately$860billion,a4%increasefrom2023.Growthwassupportedbyanuptickincommercialtravel,leetmodernization,andgeopoliticaldriversofdefensespending.MajorOEMsandairlinescapitalizedonpost-pandemicdemandwithmarginexpansionandstrategicinvestments.•Commercialaviationrecoveredwell,withglobalrevenuepassengerkilometers(RPKs)reaching99%of2019levels.Bothdomesticandinternationalmarketspostedgrowth,drivenbypent-upleisureandcontinuedexpansionofbusinesstravel,withmanyairlinesinvestinginmorefirst-classandupgradedbusinesscabins.•Globaloperatingprofitsforcommercialcarriersexceeded$75billion(vs$73billionin2023),drivenbyhigheryields,reducedfuelvolatility,andimprovedcostdiscipline.•Supplychaindisruptionsandlaborshortagespersisted,creatingproductiondelaysandescalatingcosts.•Aircraftproductionbacklogsremainedhistoricallyhigh.BoeingandAirbusalonereportedover14,000aircraftinbacklogcombined,relectingcontinuedstrongleetdemanddespiteglobalchallenges.•Aircargotrafficstabilized,postingmodestgrowthinlate2024aftertwoyearsofdecline.GlobalFreightTonneKilometers(FTKs)pressurefrompreviouspost-pandemichighs.•Generalaviationaircraftdeliveriesincreasedtoover2,200units,a5%risefrom2023,ledbyprivatebusinessjetsandturboprops.•Commercialspacelaunchescontinuedtheirrapidascent,drivenbySpaceX,BlueOrigin,andglobalgovernmentinitiatives.Thecostperkilogramtoorbithasfallenbyover90%since2010.Theaerospacesectorin2025andbeyondisexpectedtoadvanceacrossmultipleareas:•Passengerairtravelisprojectedtosurpasspre-pandemiclevelsglobally,withRPKsexpected•DefensebudgetsremainelevatedacrossNATOandalliedcountriesduetoongoinggeopoliticaltensions,supportingstrongmilitaryaerospacedemand,especiallyinunmannedplatforms.•OEMswillfocusondigitaltransformation,predictivemaintenancetechnologies,andsustainabilitythroughsustainableaviationfuel(SAF)initiativesandelectric/hybridpropulsion.Despitebullishgrowthexpectations,risksremain,includingsupplychainstrain,limitedmanufacturingcapacity,andcontinuedtalentshortages(nowmostlyduetoanaging“babyboomer”generation).Tosustainprogress,industryplayersmustinvestinautomation,nearshoring,andworkforceupskilling.3DrawingfromrecentforecastsbytheInternationalMonetaryFundandWorldBank,theglobaleconomyin2025continuestorelectacomplexmixofresilienceandvolatility.Whilerecoveryisunderway,thepaceremainsunevenacrossregionsduetopersistentinlation,elevatedinterestrates,andlingeringgeopoliticaluncertainty.GlobalGDPgrowthremainedmodestin2024,holdingat3.1%(sameas2023),andisriseslightlyto3.2%in2025,accordingtotheOECDEconomicOutlook(May2025).Whilestillbelowlong-termtrends,thisrelectscautiousoptimismasinlationarypressuresgraduallyeaseandmonetarytighteningslows.Growthdisparitiesremainevident:•Asia-Pacific(excludingJapan)isprojectedtoleadglobalexpansion,withIndiaandChinapostingthestrongestgrowthratesat6.6%and4.7%,respectively.Thisregioncontinuestobenefitfromdemographicmomentum,infrastructureinvestment,andindustrialdigitalization.•LatinAmerica,EasternEurope,andtheMiddleEastareexpectedtoseemoderategainssupportedbycommodityexportsandregionaltradeimprovements.•Matureeconomies,includingtheUnitedStatesandEurope,areforecasttogrowat1.6%and1.3%,respectively,constrainedbytightlabormarkets,agingpopulations,subduedproductivitygrowth,andnowgeopoliticalandtradetensions(i.e.tariffs).l'Analystsprojectslowbutsteadygrowththroughthedecade.Inthenearterm,globaleconomicperformancewillhingeonthetimingandimpactofinterestratecuts,energypricestability,andsupplychainandtradenormalization.Thesetrendscarrydirectimplicationsfortheaerospacesector,particularlyintheAsia-Pacificregion,whererisingmiddle-classconsumptionandindustrialexpansionoffersignificantopportunities.AsWesterneconomiesprioritizedecarbonization,digitalinnovation,andsustainability,theinterdependencebetweenaerospaceinnovationandmacroeconomicforcesisbecomingmorestrategicandmorevisiblethaneverbefore.Basedonthechangedpoliticalclimate,theU.S.isexpectedtoreduceconcerteddecarbonizationeffortsandreduceenvironmentalregulationsinthenearterm.Inthelongterm,globaltrendsareexpectedtodrivetechnologydevelopments.ThepriceofBrentCrudeOilhasdroppedbyaround20%overthepast12months.WithglobalGDPgrowthstableat3.2%,theloweroilpricecannotbeexplainedbyaweakeningglobaleconomiccycle.Instead,itistheresultofoversupplyastheU.S.affirmsitspositionastheworld’sleadingoilproducer.Itisalsotheresultofshiftingdemandfordifferentenergyproducts,especiallyinChina.Thecargomarkethaslentsignificantsupporttoairlinetrafficin2024.Demandsurgedthankstoeffervescentcross-bordere-commerceandcapacitylimitationsinoceanshipping.Theoutlookfor2025remainsstrong,giventheongoingchallengesinmaritimeshipping.Globalyieldsforaircargostoppeddecliningin2023andarenowaround30%abovepre-pandemiclevels.Weexpectaircargoyieldstoremainstablein2025,despitetariffandothergeopoliticalconcerns,althoughmonth-to-monthvariabilityisexpected.56I万WUHYGlobalratetrends:TheBalticAirFreightIndex(BAI00)experiencedaslightdeclineof1.1%fromFebruarytoMarch2025.However,thismaskssignificantregionalvariations.Shanghai'ssurge:TheBAI80indexforShanghaioutboundlightsroseby2.9%,drivenbyincreaseddemandonroutestoNorthAmericaandEurope.ThisuptickisattributedtoshippersacceleratingshipmentsaheadofimpendingU.S.tariffchanges.Europeandeclines:Incontrast,majorEuropeanhubslikeFrankfurtandLondon-Heathrowsawbroad-basedratedecreases,particularlyonoutboundroutestotheUnitedStates.faceddurabilityandqualityissues,leadingtoincreaseddemandforaftermarketservicesandextendeduseofolderaircraft.Productiondelays:Theintroductionofnewfreighteraircraftisfacingsetbacks.Boeing's777-8Fisnowdelayeduntil2028,andAirbus'sA350Fisexpectednoslineisthesoleactivelargewidebodyfreighterproduction,withmostslotsalreadyallocated.Conversionchallenges:InJanuary2025,only41freighteraircrafttransactionswererecorded,downfrom52inDecember2024.Thisdeclineisduetoashortageofsuitableaircraftforconversion(like737-800s,A321s,andA330s),partsshortages,andcertificationdelaysfornewconversionprograms.•OnMay30,2025,Boeingrolledouta737MAXatasustainedrateof38aircraftpermonth,markingthefirstsuchmilestonesincelate2020.•Whyitcounts:ThisoutputmarksamajorinlectionpointinBoeing’sindustrialandfinancialrebound,signalingrenewedproductionstabilityfollowingyearsofpandemicdisruptions,qualitysnags,andlabor/staffingchallenges.•BoeingCEOKellyOrtbergmentionednearingthispeakduringaninvestorcallonMay29.•Thecompanymonitorsthreeproductionbenchmarks:wingbuild,rollout,anddelivery.They’verolledoutat38/month,butdeliveriesatthatpacearestillpending.Boeingremainscautious,focusingonstabilitybeforefurtherramp-up.•InMarch2025,Boeingbrielyboostedwingproductiontomatchthe38/monthtarget,butencounteredgrowingwingassemblybacklogs(JobsBehindSchedule),promptingatemporaryrollbackto31/monthtoregaincontrol.•TheFAA,viaDeputyAdministratorChrisRocheleau,acknowledgedbetterperformancesincetherateramp,butemphasizedcautionandfullstabilizationisneededbeforegreenlightingratesabove38/month.7Tarif-induceddemandshifts:AnticipationofU.S.tariffhikesonimportsfromChina,Mexico,andCanadaledtoasurgeinaircargodemandinMarch2025.Shippersexpeditedshipmentstoavoidincreasedcosts,resultinginheightenedspotdemand,especiallyfromChina,Vietnam,andTaiwantotheU.S.Withcontinuedchangestopolicy,month-to-monthvariationsareexpectedtocontinuethroughout2025.Routerepositioning:Duetotheevolvingtradepolicies,forwardersarereallocatingvolumestomorestablecorridors,adjustingtotheshiftingdemandlandscape.Short-termplanning:Thecombinationofproductiondelays,conversionchallenges,andtradepolicyuncertaintiesiscompellingcarriersandshipperstoadoptshort-termstrategies.Thelackoflexibilityinthefreightersupplychainmakesitdifficulttorespondswiftlytosuddendemandspikes.8I万WUHYLong-termdemandforaviationcontinuestobedrivenbymacroeconomicgrowth,businessrecovery,andthesustainedriseinglobalmiddle-classtravelers(mostlyinAsia-Pacificregion).In2025,theUnitedStatesandglobalcommercialaviationsectorsareprojectedtoexpandsteadily,withprofitabilitymaintaineddespitepersistentcostpressures.Followingastrongrecoveryin2023and2024,U.S.carriersareexpectedtoremainprofitablein2025andbeyond,accordingtotheFAAAerospaceForecastFY2025–2045.Elevatedticketpricesandstrongloadfactorshavehelpedoffsetrisinglaborandfuelcosts,althoughthesecondhalfof2025isalreadyprojectedtobesofterthanoriginallyforecasted.Bothavailableseatmiles(ASM)andrevenuepassengermiles(RPM)areexpectedtogrowbetween2025and2045,withRPMsgrowingataslightlyfasterrate.9In2025,commercialaviationcontinuestoseesteadydemandgrowth,butpassengerbehaviorisevolvinginresponsetorecentsafety-relatedevents.Passengerconfidenceinairtravelremainshigh,althoughmanyareadoptingextraprecautionsduetorecentincidents:AFebruary2025AP–NORCpollfoundthatabout60%ofadultscontinuetoviewplanetravelassafecomparedtoothermodes,althoughconcernsarerisingduetohigh-profilesafetyevents.WhilemostofU.S.travelers(approx.86%)trustlightcrewstoensuresafetyandtheremainingtravelers“paycloserattentiontosafetymaterialsandwearaseatbeltevenwhennotrequired.”Thisbehaviorhighlightsashiftinpassengermindsettowardspersonalvigilanceduringlights.TheIATA’s2024SafetyReportconfirmsthataviationremainsextremelysafe.Despiteaminoruptickfromthe2023recordlow,theoverallincidenceoffatalaccidentsisverylow—only7fatalaccidentsoutofnearly41millionlights.10I万WUHYAirbusdelivered134aircraftinQ12025,including69inMarch.Thisritsannualtargetof820deliveries.Historically,Airbusachievesabout20%ofitsyearlydeliveriesinthefirstquarter,suggestingpotentialchallengesinmeetingits2025goal.Boeingdelivered130aircraftinQ12025,representingapproximately23%ofitsannualtargetof570deliveriesfortheyear.Airbushasattributedtheslowerdeliverypacetoashortageofengines,particularlytheCFMLEAPenginesusedintheA320family.Thisbottleneckisasignificantfactorinthedeliveryshortfall.Bothmanufacturerscontinuetofacebroadersupplychainissues,includingpartsshortagesandlaborconstraints,whichareimpactingtheirabilitytorampupproductiontomeetdemand.TheongoingproductionchallengessuggestthatbothAirbusandBoeingmaystruggletomeettheirrespectivedeliverytargetsfor2025,potentiallyleadingtoacontinueddeficitinnewaircraftenteringservice.Delaysinaircraftdeliveriescanaffectairlineleetplanningandexpansionstrategies,possiblyleadingtoextendeduseofolder,lessefficientaircraft.•Boeingdelivered44commercialjetsinApril2025,nearlydoublingthe24deliveriesfromApril2024andsurpassing•Thismarksthefourthconsecutivemonthwithover40deliveries,apositivesignforBoeing'seffortstoincreasecashlowandreducedebt.•TheAprildeliveriesincluded:•Twenty-nine737MAXjets,witheightdeliveredtoUnitedAirlines,fivetoRyanair,andfivetoSouthwestAirlines.BoeingdeliveredtwoaircrafttoChineseairlinesinApril2025:a777freightertoCESLeasingCorp.(associatedwithChinaEasternAirlineFollowingtheannouncementofnewU.S.tariffsonChinesegoodsinApril2025,ChinadirecteditsairlinestohaltBoeingdeliveries.Consequently,four737MAXaircraftintendedforChinesecarrierswerereturnedtoandparkedinWashingtonState.ChinadeliverieshaverestartedbeginningofJune2025,althoughslowly.Withtheliftingoftheban,Boeingaimstofulfillitsexpecteddeliveryof50jetstoChinesecustomersthisyear.BothmanufacturerssecuredsignificantordersinearlyMay2025,including:BritishAirways’parentcompany,•LargestwidebodyorderinBoeing’shistory:InMay2025,Qatarplaceda210widebodyorder50optionsforboth•Airbus:21A330-900neoaircraftorderedbyIAGAircraftbetween2006and20241212I万WUHYBoeingcontinuestooperateunderaFederalAviationAdministration(FAA)restrictionlimitingtheassemblyof737MAXjetsto38permonth.DuringthemonthofMay2025,theCompanyhadreachedproductionof38737MAXreachingtheFAAproductionrestrictionamount.AnotableportionofBoeing'sQ1deliveriesconsistedofaircraftcompletedin2023or2024butheldininventoryduetofactorssuchastradedisputeswithChinaandtheneedforreworkoncertain787units.TheclosedeliveryfiguresinQ12025indicateatightracebetweenAirbusandBoeing,ascenarionotseeninrecentyearBoeing'simprovedperformanceisnoteworthy,especiallyconsideringthechallengesfacedinthepreviousyear,includingfederaloversight,aseven-weekworkstoppage,andsupplychainissues.Tomeetanticipateddemand,AirbusandBoeingareconsideringscalingupproductionto80–100aircraftpermonth.Thiswouldrepresentasignificantincreasefromcurrentproductionratesandwouldrequiresubstantialchangesinmanufacturingprocessesandsupplychainmanagement.Bothmanufacturersareevaluatingtheuseofthermoplastics,whichofferadvantagessuchasreducedweight,fasterprocessingtimes,andtheabilitytobereheatedandreshaped.Thesematerialscanbeweldedusingadvancedmethodslikeultrasound,eliminatingtheneedfortraditionalfastenersandpotentiallyreducingassemblytimeandweight.Despitetheseadvances,neithercompanyhasannouncedimmediateplanstolaunchnewaircraftmodels.Thefocusremainsonresearchanddevelopmenttoensurethatfutureaircraftdesignscanbeproducedefficientlyandmeetevolvingmarketdemands.Commercialaerospaceisoneofthefastestgrowingmarketswithkeydevelopmentshappeningin2024and2025.Themarriageofcommercialandgovernment-ledspaceventuresisrapidlyincreasing.In1990therewereonly10commercialspacelaunches,in2024history.AsoftheendofMay2025totalcommercialspacelaunchesstandat77,andareonpacetoexceed2024total.14I万WUHYGlobalgovernmentexpenditureforspaceprogramsisalsogrowing,in2024thetotalmarketreached$127billionwiththeUnitedStatesleadingthewayat$80billionfollowedbyChina,whospentapproximately$14billion.withfulllaunchandextraterrestriallandingcapabilities.ManyofusaremostfamiliarwiththeNationalAeronauticsandSpaceAdministration(NASA)duetoitsrelevanceandreputation.NASAhasworkedwithnumerousinternationalpartnerstoenablehumanexpansionintooursolarsystem,discoveringandresearchingnewopportunitiesandbringingthembacktoearth.Asgeopoliticaltensionsriseandforeignnationsdevelopnuclearcapabilities,thespacesectorpresentsformidableweaponscapabilitiesandmakesspaceakeyareaofdefenseandnationalsecuritystrategy.NASAhascollaboratedwiththeDepartmentofDefensesinceitwasfounded,operatingtogetherinthespacedomain,sharingthespaceindustrialbase,researchanddevelopmentandscienceandtechnologythatbenefitboth.ThatrelationshipwillbecomemoreimportantastheU.S.workstostrengthendefense.NASA’srequestedbudgetforFY2025acrossallspacesectorsis$25.4billion,lessthanthebudgetforFY2024.•Totalglobalinvestment:Governmentspaceinvestmentshit$135billionin2024,a10%increasefrom2023.•Defenseleadsgrowth:Defensespendingreached$73billion(54%),outpacingcivilspendingandhighlightingspace’srisingroleasastrategicmilitarydomain.•Globalshifts:WhiletheU.S.remainsthetopspender,itsshareofglobalinvestmentfellfrom75%in2000to59%in2024,duetogrowingcontributionsfromcountrieslikeChina.•Defensefocusareas:Fundingisconcentratedinsecurity,earlywarning,navigation,telecommunications,andearthobservation,withmorenationsformingdedicatedspaceforces.•Civilspendingtrends:Humanspaceflightisthelargestcivilinvestmentarea,withbroaderglobalparticipationinspaceexploration.•Futureoutlook:Growthingovernmentspacebudgetsisexpectedtoslowtoabout1%annuallythrough2030duetofiscalpressures.•Commercialpartnershipsrising:Governmentsareshiftingtowarda“BuyBeforeBuild”modeltopurchasecommercialservices,enhancingefficiencyandcost-effectiveness.16I万WUHYInthefirstquarterof2025,globalaircargotrafficincreasedby2%comparedtothesameperiodin2024,indicatingresiliencedespitegeopoliticaltensionsandeconomicuncertainties.AsofMarch2025,globalaircargoyieldsremainapproximately35%higherthan2019levels,relectingsustaineddemandandcapacityconstraints.Globalretaile-commercesalesareprojectedtogrowat7%annually,reaching$8.1trillionby2028,significantlycontributingtoaircargodemand.Approximately4,500tonsoflow-valuee-commercegoodsareshippedbyairfromChinaandHongKong,highlightingthesector'simpactoncargovolumes.ManufacturersareshiftingproductiontocountrieslikeIndia,Malaysia,leadingtonotableincreasesinaircargotonnagetotheU.S.fromtheseregionsbetween2017world'ssecond-largestsmartphonemanufacturer,withsignificantgrowthinaircargoexportsofcellphonestoTheglobalfreighterleetisprojectedtogrowat2.1%annually,reaching3,874unitsby2044.However,nearly60%ofthesedeliverieswillreplaceagingaircraft,indicatinganeedforacceleratedproductionorconversionstomeetdemand.Theaircargomarketisanticipatedtogrowby1-2%in2025,withsustaineddemandtemperedbygeopoliticaltensionsandtradeuncertainties.Ongoinggeopoliticaltensionsandpotentialtariffimplementationsareexpectedtodisruptcapacityanddemandexpectations,necessitatingagilestrategiesfromindustrystakeholders.Thebiggestboostincargotrafficcomesfromlong-haulroutes,whichjumped16.6%in2024ofthisgrowthcamefromincreaseduseofpassengerplanesforcargo—specifically,theirfreight,edgingclosertoitspre-pandemiclevel18I万WUHYTheglobalunmannedaerialvehicle(UAV)marketisexpectedtogrowfrom$36billionin2024to$41billionin2025,and$200billionin2035.TheNorthAmericanmarketaloneisexpectedtoreachabout$100billioninrevenuesby2037,withdefensespendingaccountingforaboutaquarterofthetotal,mostlyattributedtoshiftingdefensespendingfrommannedplatforms.Additionalgrowthinnewapplications,suchasagriculture,disasterrelief,orpowerlineinspections,willcontinuetoaccelerate.Intotal,between2024and2037,theUAVmarketisexpectedtoachieve16%compoundannualgrowthrate(CTheDepartmentofDefenseisprioritizingthedevelopmentandstrategieswhenencounteringunmannedsystems,asUAVsposethemostsignificantrisktotheUnitedStatesabroadandathome.TheRussia-Ukrainewarhasprovidedbothanincreasedindustryfocusaswellasatest-caseforUAVwarfareapplications.Systemsdevelopmentcontinuestoquicklyevolveandadaptthroughoutthisconlict,changingfromlargemunitioncapacityremotecontrolleddronestosmall“disposable”applications,andfurthertointerconnectedautonomousandsemi-autonomous“web”deployments.AsNorthAmericanfarmersoutpacetherestoftheglobeinadaptingnewfarmtechnologies,during2024theFAAgrantedafarmingcompanyapprovaltodeployuptothree55-pounddroneswithouttheneedforvisualobservers.Thus,allowingthedronestobedeployedatnightandimprovecropoperations.Inaddition,seed-sowingdronescanseedover200acresperday.TheUAVmarket,whileexperiencingsignificantgrowth,alsofacesanumberofcomplexchallenges.Regulatoryhurdlesremainamajorconstraint.Varyingregulationsacrossregions,slowimplementation,andtheneedforcomprehensiveframeworksaddressingairspacemanagement,safetyprotocols,andprivacyconcernsimpedewidespreadadoption,particularlyincommercialapplications.Technologicallimitationsalsoposeasignificantobstacle.Batteryliferemainsacriticalissue,restrictinglightdurationandoperationalrange,especiallyforefficientandcost-effectivecommercialapplications.Developingmoreefficientpowersources,ensuringrobustandsecurecommunicationlinks,andpreventingunauthorizedaccessiscrucial.Publicperceptionisincreasinglyimportant.Concernssurroundingprivacy,security,andthepotentialformisusefuelpublicapprehension.Addressingtheseconcernsthroughtransparentoperationalpractices,robustdatasecuritymeasuresandclearguidelinesisessentialforbuildingpublictrustandacceptance.Additionally,competitionandcommoditizationareimpactingprofitability.Theinluxoflower-costdronesisputtingpressureonmanufacturerstoinnovateanddifferentiatetheirproducts.Developingspecializedcapabilitiesandfocusingonnicheapplicationswillbecrucialforsustainedsuccessinanincreasinglycompetitivemarket.2020I万WUHYIn2023,generalaviationsawstronggrowth,withtheactiveleetrisingtoover214,000aircraftandlighthourshittingtheirhighestlevelsince2000.Mostcategories,especiallylight-sportandexperimentalaircraft,sawsignificantincreasesinuse.Incontrast,turbojetandglideractivitydeclined.Aircraftdeliveriescontinuedtogrowbymorepistonandbusinessjetshipments,althoughturbopropsdipped.TheFAAbasesitsforecastsonannualsurveydata,aircraftdeliverytrends,andexpertinput,focusingonlyonaircraftthatwereactuallylownduringtheyear.Fleettrendsfrom2023-2045Certaintypesofaircraftleetsareexpectedtogrowwhileothersareexpectedtodecline,butgrowthwilloffsetanydecline.•Theactivegeneralaviationleetisexpectedtogrowfrom214,222aircraftin2023toaround238,350by2045,withanaverageannualgrowthrateof0.5%.•Turbineaircraftexpansionisdrivenbybusinessjetsandturbinerotorcraft:adding20,055aircraftby2045,averaging2.1%annualgrowth,withturbojetgrowthat2.7%peryear;a57.9%cumulativeincrease.•Fixedwingpistonaircraftisexpectedtodeclineby4,450aircraftby2045,atamodestyearlydeclineof–0.1%,duetoretirementsanddemographic/economicpressures.•Lightsportaircraft(LSA)willseestronggrowth,of3.1%annually,nearlydoublingtheleetbyaddingaround2,860aircraftsbyyear2045.Flighthoursareprojectedtogrowby19%intotal(average0.8%peryear),outpacingleetexpansion,duetoanincreaseduseofturbine,rotorcraft,andexperimentalaircrafts.From2023to2045,generalaviationlighthoursareexpectedtogrowfasterthantheleetsize,increasingby0.8%annually,whiletheactiveleetgrowsby0.5%peryear.Totalhourslownwillfixed-wingpistonaircrafthoursareprojectedtodeclineby0.7%annuallyduetoanagingleet,over24%arealready60turbineaircraft,especiallyjets,willdrivegrowth.Turbinelighthoursareforecasttogrow2.5%annually,withjethoursrising3.2%eacfueledbyagrowingbusinessjetleet.Rotorcraftactivityisexpectedtogrowsteadily,drivenbyincreaseddemandfromemergencymedicalservices,firefighting,andsearchandrescueoperations.Deliveriesrosein2024,buttheimpactoffuturetechnologieslikeAdvancedAirMobility(AAM),includingeVTOLs,remainsuncertainandisnotyetfactoredintoforecasts.WhileAAMcouldboostrotorcraftuse,infrastructureneedsandmixedexpertopinionscreateuncertainty.Loweroilpricesareexpectedtoreducerotorcraftdemandinoilexploration.Overall,theactiverotorcraftleetisprojectedtogrow1.7%annually,fromofturbinerotorcraft.Asoftheendof2024,therewere848,770activeFAA-certifiedpilots,withmostcategoriescontinuingtogrow.Studentpilotnumberssurgedtoover345,000,duetoa2016ruleremovingexpirationdatesontheircertificates,buttheFAAnolongerforecastsstudentpilottrendsduetothedatadistortion.Private,commercial,andATP(AirlineTransportPilot)certificateshav