房地产 -2025年第四季度法国零售数据 France Retail Figures Q4 2025

RetailFranceQ42025

Inafragileeconomicclimate,householdsareprioritisingspendingonservices,particularlyleisure

anddiningout,whilemaintainingahighlevelofsavingsThisisslowingdownretailsomewhat·Theaveragebasketsizeisshrinking,andexperiencesarenowtakingprecedenceOVErthepurchaseofgoods.

consequently,highstreetsarereinventingthemselvesbyembracinghybridconcepts,pop-upstores,anddistinctiveservicestoboostfootfallsupermarketsarEbecominglessappealing,promptingretailerstofavourmorecompact,localformats,particularlyinthefoodandDIysectors·

Investorsarefocusingonsafe,well-positionedanddiversifiedlocations·

Inthisreport,youwillfind:

Growthcoesbackthroughvolumes,notprices

primeisbecomingscarceandexpensive

-Theinvestmentmarketisstabilising

Goodreading!

RetailFranceFiguresQ42025|France

3CBRERESEARCH©2026CBRE,INC.

Footfall

shoppingcentres

+0.6%

December2025

shareofretailInvestment

20%

FrenchGDP

+0.5%

Q32025

Household

consumption

+0.1%

Q32025

Inflation(IPC)

+0.8%

Y-o-y,toDecember2025

Householdconfidence

90pts

December2025

Thearrowsindicateannualchanges/sources:CBREResearch,Immostat,INSEE,FACT

RetailFranceFiguresQ42025|France

5CBRERESEARCH©2026CBRE,INC.

Growthcomesbackthrough

volumes,notprices

Moderategrowth

TheFrencheconomygrewby+0.5%inQ32025,confirmingaslightreboundattheendoftheyear,whileinflationslowedto+0.8%inDecember·Despitethismorefavourablecontext,specialisedretailremainshamperedbydecliningfootfallandlowhouseholdmorale·

Thehouseholdconfidenceindexremainedataroundgopoints,reflectingpessimisticexpectationsandagreaterwillingnesstosave·

In2025,householdconsumptiondevelopedirregularly,withrecoveriesinJune,AugustandoctoberoffsettingdeclinesinJanuary,JulyandNovember·ThistrendrevealsacontinuedSEnsEOfcaution·

onlinesalesgrewby+7.9%inthe1sthalf,drivenbyservices(+10%)andthemoderaterecoveryinproducts(+4%).Theaveragebasketsizefellto67,whichsuggestsstrongpricesensitivity·

Atthesametime,theretailrentindex(ILC)wasstable,withaslightdecreaseof0.45%inQ3.

Thecombinationoflowinflationandtherecoveryinproductsopensawindowforvolumedrivenretailgrowth·Thus,thecautionofhouseholdsandthedeclineinfootfallareforcingplayerstostrengthentheiromnichannelstrategiestocapturedemand·

FIGURE1:consumerpriceindexandhouseholdconsumptioninFrance*

CPIConsumption

*yearon-yearchanges(in%)

source:INSEE,CBREResearch,January2026

RetailFranceFiguresQ42025|France

7CBRERESEARCH©2026CBRE,INC.

primeisbecomingscarceand

expensive

scarcitychangestherules

Inparisandinthemajorregionalcities,therotationofbrandsincertaindistrictshasclarifiedpositioningandmadeiteasierforretailerstonavigatethearEa.withnoavailableoffersandsufficientturnover,thepressureonprimeisintensifying·

Theamountsofkeymoneyareincreasinginawaythatreflectsthecautionofthetransferors·However,thelimitedvolumeoftransactionsconfirmsthenewvaluelevels·Nevertheless,thecombinationofhighrentsandleaserightsispushingupprices·ThefirstsignsofthistrendappearedontheBoulevardsdescapucinesandaroundLaMadeleine·Thetrendisexpectedtogrowinthecomingyears,drivenbytheappetiteofinternationalbrands·

Incontrasttoprimearteries,secondarylocationsandsmalltownsareexperiencingadropinfootfallandanimbalancebetweensupplyanddemand·Theavailablecellsareoftentoosmalltoeettheneedsofretailerswhoprefertowaitfortherightlocationratherthancompromise·Thisinertiafuelsvacancyandweakensnon-primerents,despitepublicrevitalisationschemes·

RetailFranceFiguresQ42025|France

8CBRERESEARCH©2026CBRE,INC.

Drivingsectorsandchangingconcepts

Retailcontinuestobedrivenbyrestaurants,premiumcoffeeshopsandsingleproductconcepts,reflectingacultureofexperienceandtheinfluenceofsocialnetworks·sportswearandoutdoorbrandsarecontinuingtoexpand,withmanyprojectsunderwayinparisandtheregion·However,thedynamicsoffitnessremainmixed·Fitnessparkisacceleratingitsdevelopment,onAirisofferingnewconcepts,whiletheexpansionmomentumofBasic-Fitisslowingdown·

Alsointhesportssector,climbinggyymsarEnowenteringaphaseofstagnation,whichcouldleadtotrade-offsandpromoteconsolidationprocESSES·paddlerooms,incompetitionwithpickleball,areappealingbecauseoftheirsmallfootprint·Leisurecontinuestogrowintheretailhubs,drivenbyimmersiveformats(actiongames,indoorkarting,quizgames)andhybridconceptscombiningsportandentertainment.Atthesametime,omnichannelformatsarebecomingessential,integratingdigitalandcustomerexperiencetocaptureaclienteleinsearchofnoveltyandinteraction·

Themajorhigh-streetconcepts,particularlyintheDIYSector,arEStrugglingtofindtheirmarketandareexpectedtofreeupsignificantsurfaceareas,revealingthefragilityofheavyformatswhereflows,occupancycostsandlogisticsrequireafinerhybridisation.

Largesupermarketslocatedinprimelocationsarequicklyabsorbedbybrandswithstronginvestmentcapacities·whilesomenetworksaredisappearing,thetakeoversanddisposalsofcompaniesconfirmamarketthathasbecomeparticularlyselective·

In2026,thescarcityofprimelocationsincreasesthepressureonstrategiclocations,whilesecondaryareasmustreinventthemselvestocurbvacancy·

9CBRERESEARCH©2026CBRE,INC.

significantopenings-Q42025-paris

8rueL⃞onFrot,paris10th

407sqm

source:CBREResearch,Q42025

RetailFranceFiguresQ42025|France

10CBRERESEARCH©2026CBRE,INC.

significantopenings-Q42025-Regions

Balzac

14-18ruedeschatsBOSSUS,Lille

550sqm

source:CBREResearch,Q42025

RetailFranceFiguresQ42025|France

12CBRERESEARCH©2026CBRE,INC.

primey

01

05

High-streetLuxury

400%

supermarketurban

4.90%

High-streetparis

4.50%

High-street

Lyon,cannes,Nice

5.10%

primeFrance

shoppingcentres

5.50%

RetailBOX

6.75%

RetailparksparisRegion

5.75%

Regional

Retailparks

6,25%

Arrowsindicatequarterlychanges/source:CBREResearch,Q42025

13CBRERESEARCH©2026CBRE,INC.

Astabilisedmarket

Theretailmarketclosed2025with2.8billioninvested,markingamodestyear-on-yearincreaseof6%.However,thisimprovementshouldbeputintoperspective,asvolumesremain29%belowthefive-yearaverage,confirmingthattheinvestmentmarketisstilconstrained·

Ameasuredrecovcry

AsinthelastthreeyEars,theannualperformancewasbasedonakeyquartermarkedbylargetransactions.Q1accountedfor47%oftheyear'svolumes,drivenbythesaleof60%ofthekeringportfoliotoArdianandtheacquisitionofa15%stakebyCDCintheForumdesHalles·

TheyearendedwithaQ4at527million,abetter-than-expectedactivitycomparabletothatof2024·Thesefiguresconfirmtheimportantroleplayedbythelastfewmonthsinconsolidatingvolumes·

Retailretainsamarketshareof21%ofcommercialrealestateinvestments,astableandrespectablelevelintermsofvolumes·

Followingtwoyearsofstability,themarketisshowingsignsofprogrESSandofferingamorefavourableoutlook·Investorsfavoursecureassetswhileremainingopportunisticintheirarbitrages·Theirreturntothemarketispartofastrategyofreallocation,securityandselectivity,farfromamassivedeploymentofnewcapital·However,thisselectivityillustratesthesearchforvalueinacontextthatremainscautious·

Volume

Five-yearaverageofQ4

Five-yearaverage

Shareinoverallvolumes

14CBRERESEARCH©2026CBRE,INC.

keytransactions-Q42025

source:CBREResearch,Q42025

15CBRERESEARCH©2026CBRE,INC.

AQ4withtargetedtransactions

Thecarrefourportfolio,whichwassoldtosupermarketIncomeREITfor131million,isthetransactionofthequarter·ThisechoesthefirsttransactionthatwasconcludedbetweenthesamepartiesinQ1.ThemomentumisaffirmedwithnotablesalesincludingEspacechanteraines,Naillouxvillage,theprismportfolio,HorizonprovenceandHaguenau·

Thenumberofoperationsfellby10%yearonyearto146in2025,comparedto163in2024·ThankstoanactiveQ4,whichsawthehighestnumberoftransactionsoftheyear,volumesincreased·Thiswasdrivenbythefinalisationofstrategicportfoliosandopportunisticarbitragesonshoppingcentresandretailparks·

Therecoveryofthecoremarketremainsgradualandvolumesremainunbalanced,dominatedbytransactions>500millionand<30million·Theyear2025marksthereturnofoperationsabove500million,whichwerecompletelyabsentin2024.BYContrast,the100-200millionsegmentisstillstrugglingtofinditsrhythm·Largetransactionsremaindifficulttoprocess·Thisconfigurationfavoursgroupingsviajointventuresandpartnerships,whereasFrenchinvestorspreferdealsworthlessthan30million·

Abiasedgeographicaldistribution

Transactionscarriedoutatthebeginningof2025propelledparistothetopwith55%ofvolumesinvestedinretailcomparedto17%in2024·However,thesevolumesrepresentonly23%oftransactionsinnumberandmustbeputintoperspective·Theregionscapture26%comparedto42%in2024andtheGreaterparisRegionexcludingparis6%comparedto17%.TheeffectsoftheparisoperationsinQ1areclearlyvisible·

16CBRERESEARCH©2026CBRE,INC.

Decompressiononthehigh-streetretail

primeyieldshavedecompressedonthehigh-streettypology.Inparis,theprimeyieldisnow4.50%.Inthemainregionalcities,suchasLyon,cannesandNice,itreaches5.25%,whileBordeauxandLilleareat5.45%.Theothercitiespostedayieldof5.75%,representinganincreaseof25basispointsacrossallmarketsOVErthepasyear·

2026:ayearofselectivityandadjustments

Retailremainsaresilientsector,anchoredinUSESanddrivenbyalong-termvision·whilethemarketremainsdeep,supplyisbecomingscarcErandthetransformationisacceleratingundertheeffectofregulatoryconstraints,inparticularzeroNetArtificialisation(ZAN).Inthiscontext,investorsaremovingcautiouslyinaveryselectiveenvironment·

Followingaperiodofconsolidationandpricecorrection,therearepositivesignsintheretailsector·shoppingcentresthatareperformingwellareholdingupwell,whileretailparksandsupermarketscontinuetoperformstronglyinboththeoperationalandinvestmentmarkets·

Theyear2026shouldseeastrengtheningofthematchbetweensellersandbuyers,promotingaclimatemorealignedwithmarketconditions·Despiteastillunstablepoliticalandeconomiccontext,leasingfundamentalsandconsumptionareshowingsignsofimprovement,openingapositiveoutlook·Despitethestilluncertainmarketlaunch,volumesareexpectedtograduallyfollow·NOWmorethanever,maximisingassetvaluerequiresaglobalapproachthatcombinesleasingleversandoptimisationstrategytosecureoperationsandvaluecreation·

FIGURE4:Evolutionofprimeyields

High-streetretail-parisRetailparks-parisRegion

10y.GVTBondshoppingcentres-parisRegion

*welllocatedassets,leasedonmarketconditions.Thisgridisestablishedpartlybyexperts(capitalMarkets,valuation,Research),knowingthattherearenotsystematicallyreferencesforeachtypology.

source:CBREResearch,Q42025

studies