2025年年中煤炭报告-IEA

Coal

Mid-YearUpdate2025

INTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY

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CoalMid-YearUpdate2025Abstract

IEA.CCBY4.0.

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Abstract

Coalsroleintheglobalenergysystemtodayremainssignificant.Overthepastdecade,theworldsdemandforcoalhasstayedrelativelystable,apartfromatemporarydropduringtheCovid-19pandemicandtherapidreboundthatfollowed.Today,globalcoalconsumption,powergeneration,productionandtradeareallatrecordlevels.

Inmanycountries,coalcontinuestobetheleadingsourceofelectricitygeneration,helpingtomeetgrowingenergyneeds.Thesetrendscarrymajorimplicationsforenergysecurity,affordabilityandsustainability,especiallyascoalremainsthesinglelargestcontributortoenergy-relatedcarbondioxideemissions.

WhilethelargemajorityoftheworldscoaluseisconcentratedinAsia,particularlyChina,consumptioninEuropeandNorthAmericaremainsconsiderable.Coalsinfluencethereforeremainsglobalinbothenergyandclimatediscussions.

TheInternationalEnergyAgencys2025CoalMid-YearUpdatereviewsthelatesttrendsincoaldemand,production,tradeandprices.Itincludespreliminarydataforthefirsthalfof2025andprovidesupdatedforecastsfor2025and2026,groundedinrecentmarketdevelopmentsandeconomicconditions.

CoalMid-YearUpdate2025Overview

Overview

Globalcoaldemandgrewby1.5%in2024,reachinganall-timehigh

Globalcoaldemandroseby1.5%in2024toreach8.79billiontonnes(Bt),anewrecord.ThegrowthwastheslowestannualratesincetheCovid-19crisisin2020causedcoaldemandtodecline.Thepost-Covideconomicrecoveryandhighnaturalgaspriceshavedrivenasharpriseinglobalcoaldemandinrecentyears,butthegrowthhasslowedyear-on-yearsince2021.Coaldemandgrewby7.7%in2021,4.4%in2022and2.3%in2023.Despiteslowingdemandgrowthonanannualbasis,thecumulativeincreasesince2020amountstomorethan16%.

Coaluseforpowergeneration,themaindriverofglobalcoaldemand,reacheditshighestrecordedlevelat10766terawatthours(TWh)in2024.Demandformetallurgicalcoalforironandsteelproduction,thelargestsourceofnon-power-relatedcoalconsumption,hasbeenmorestable.In2024,metallurgicalcoalusedecreasedby0.8%.

China

1

playsauniqueroleinglobalcoalmarkets.Itaccountsfor56%ofglobalcoalconsumption–almost30%morethantherestoftheworldcombined.OneofeverythreetonnesofcoalconsumedgloballyisusedinChinesepowerplants,makingChinaanditspowersectorthelargestsingledriverofglobalcoaldemand.

In2025,globalcoaldemandissettoremainaround2024levels

Inthefirsthalfof2025,globalcoaldemandisestimatedtohavedecreasedslightly,bylessthan1%,amidfluctuatingtrendsacrossdifferentregions.InChina,weakerelectricitydemandgrowthandasurgeinpoweroutputfromrenewablescausedadeclineincoalpowergeneration.ThesmalldeclineinChina’soverallcoaldemandcamedespitegrowthinsomesectorslikechemicals.InIndia,expansionofwindandsolarandanearlymonsoonresultinginstrongerelectricitygenerationfromhydropower,andweakerelectricitydemandgrowthinthefirsthalfof2025,pushedcoalpowergeneration–andoverallcoaldemand–intodeclinefromthehighconsumptionlevelsseeninthesameperiodayearearlier.Bycontrast,coaldemandintheUnitedStatesisestimatedtohaveincreasedby10%inthefirsthalfof2025,drivenbystrongelectricitydemandandhighernaturalgasprices,whichpromptedsomeelectricitygenerationtoshiftfromgastocoal.Inthe

IEA.CCBY4.0.

1Inthisreport,“China”referstothePeople’sRepublicofChinaandHongKong(China).

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CoalMid-YearUpdate2025Overview

IEA.CCBY

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EuropeanUnion,coaldemandgrewinthefirsthalfof2025drivenbytheelectricitysector,asaresultoflowwindandhydrooutputandhighergasprices.

Despitesuchtrendsinthefirsthalfoftheyear,ourfull-yearforecastforglobalcoaldemandin2025islittlechangedfromtheonepublishedinourannualCoal2024reportinDecember2024.Thestructuraldriversunderlyingcoaldemandremainthesame,bothintheelectricityandindustrialsectors.Onagloballevel,themainregionalchangescomparedwithourDecemberforecastcanceleachotherout.InChinaandIndia,demandwillbeweakerthanforeseen,butthisisoffsetbyhigher-than-expectedcoaldemandintheEuropeanUnionandUnitedStates.Asaresult,globalcoaldemandisstillforecasttoriseslightlyin2025.

Globalcoaldemandisexpectedtostayaroundasimilarlevelin2026

Aftertheslightincreaseinglobalcoaldemandin2025,ourforecastshowsanalmostequaldecreasein2026,leavingitcloseits2024level.DevelopmentsinChinawilllargelyshapeglobalcoaltrends.Inourcurrentforecast,China’scoaldemanddeclinesslightlyin2025andrecoversin2026,gettingcloseto5Bt.CoalconsumptioninIndiaisexpectedtogrowby2.5%in2026,withtheongoingexpansionofrenewablescontinuingtolimititsgrowthintheelectricitysector.

InEurope,thedeclineincoaldemandissettoacceleratein2026afterthesmallexpecteddecreasein2025.IntheUnitedStates,demandisexpectedtoreturnto2024levels,withthenewadministration’smeasurestosupportcoaluseandnaturalgasmarkettrendslikelytoaffectthetrends.

Globalcoalproductiongrewby1.4%in2024toreach9.1Bt

DomesticcoalisthelargestsourceofenergysupplyinbothChinaandIndia,andtherefore,coalproductionisakeydomesticenergysecurityissue.Followingshortagesin2021,bothcountriesincreasedproductionforseveralyears,hittingarecordhighin2024.Indonesia,theworld’stopexporter,reached836milliontonnes(Mt)duetostronginternationalanddomesticdemand.Despitedeclinesinotherregions,globalcoalproductionreachedanall-timehighat9.15Btin2024.

Despitesluggishcoaldemand,coalproductioncouldreachrecordlevelsin2025

4.0.

ChinaandIndiaincreasedproductioninresponseto2021shortagesandhighenergyprices,leadingtoanoversupplyincoalmarkets.InChinaandIndia,effortstoexpandproductionpersist,potentiallyreducingimportvolumesduetomoderatedemand.InIndonesia,whereproductionhassetnewrecordsinrecentyears,coal

CoalMid-YearUpdate2025Overview

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outputisprojectedtofallbelow800Mtin2025,drivenbylowpricesininternationalmarkets.Bycontrast,productionissettogrowintheUnitedStates.Overall,despitesluggishdemandandhighinventories,anewhighforcoalproduction,ofmorethan9.2Bt,isexpectedin2025.

Weakerdemandandhighstocksareexpectedtoslowcoalproductionandpromptadeclinein2026

Giventhecurrentlandscapeofabundantsupply,lowprices,andprojectionsindicatingstablecoaldemandthrough2026,coalproductionwilldecreaseacrossallmajorproducingnations,withthesoleexceptionofIndia.InIndia,bothstate-ownedenterprisesandprivateoperatorsofcaptiveandcommercialminingblocksareexpectedtocontinueincreasingcoaloutput.InChina,withveryhighstocksthroughoutthesupplychainandnoexpectedreboundofdemand,weexpectadeclinein2026,thefirstsince2022.China,wheremorethanhalfoftheworld’scoalisproduced,isofparamountimportanceinshapingglobalcoaltrends.

WeexpectIndonesia,thethird-largestproducer,toreduceproductionaslowpricesandweakdemandfrominternationalmarketscontinue.IntheUnitedStates,productionisexpectedtodeclineslightlyin2026,asbothdomesticandinternationalmarketsareweakerthanin2025.

Coaltradebrokerecordsin2024

Duringthe21stcentury,internationalcoaltradevolumehasincreasednearlyeveryyearaveraginganannualgrowthrateof4%,whichishigherthantheratesfordemandorproduction.Atfirstglance,theincreaseofcoaltradevolumesiscounterintuitive,ascoaldemandinmanycountriesrunningmostlyorcompletelyonimportingcoalsuchastheEuropeanUnion,Japan,Korea,ChineseTaipeiandtheUK,hasbeendeclining,andthebulkofgrowthofcoaldemandcamefromdomesticcoalconsumingcountriessuchasChina,IndiaandIndonesia.However,in2024,Chineseimportsincreasedsignificantly,resultingincoaltradevolumesexceeding1.5Btforthefirsttime.

Onthesupplyside,Australiahasmaintaineditspositionasthetopsupplierofhigh-valuecokingcoal,butIndonesiahasprovedtobethemostflexibleexporter,becomingthetopexporterbyfarandsurpassing550Mtin2024.

Tradevolumesaresettoshrinkin2025

Asmostmajorimportersarereducingimports,adropinChina’simportsdrivestheglobaltrendtodecline.Since2022,China'scoaloversupplyhasboostedstocks.Followingtwoyearsofhigher-than-expectedimports,Chineseimportsand

CoalMid-YearUpdate2025Overview

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globaltradevolumesarelikelytodecreasein2025.Infact,amongthetopsiximporters,onlyVietNamisexpectedtoincreaseimportsin2025.

Onthesupplyside,mostexporterswillseetheirvolumesshrink.Indonesia,thelargestsuppliertoChina,isexpectedtohavethelargestreduction.Colombiawillalsoseeabigcontraction,asGlencorehasannouncedsignificantproductioncuts.Australianexportsofmetallurgicalcoalaresettodeclineowingtoaccidentsinsomeofitsminesandthecurrentlow-priceenvironment.

Furtherreductionsintradevolumesareexpectedin2026

Chinahasbeenthemainengineofgrowthforinternationalcoaltradeupto2025.Asthingsstandtoday,withdemandstagnating,abundantstocksandstrongproduction,wedonotexpectareboundinChineseimportsin2026.WithcoalimportsbytheEuropeanUnion,Japan,KoreaandChineseTaipeiexpectedtocontinuedeclining,andIndiafocusingonincreasedproductionamidmoderatedemandgrowth,weanticipateafurtherdropincoaltradein2026—foranunprecedentedsecondconsecutiveyearinthiscentury,accordingtoIEAstatistics.

Onthesupplyside,mostexporterswillstruggleamidlowpricesandweakdemand,althoughAustraliacanperformbetterifmetallurgicalcoalminesreturntooperation.RussianFederation’s(hereafter:Russia)exportscontinuetobeuncertainbecause,whilethegovernmenthasannouncedsupportforcoalmines,lowpricesandsanctionsplaceaheavyburdenontheindustry.

RecentoversupplyinChinahassuppressedcoalprices

Coalpricessoaredaftercoronavirus(Covid-19)lows,peakingin2022duetoRussia’sfull-scaleinvasionofUkraineandtheresultingenergysupplydisruptions.Meanwhile,China’scoalsupplyhasoutpaceddemand,boostinginventoriesandputtingdownwardpressureonpricesdomesticallyandinternationally.Asaresult,thermalcoalpricesinthefirsthalfof2025droppedtotheirlowestsince2021.

Internationalthermalcoalpricesstabilisedin2025

WhilethermalcoalpricesinChinacontinuetodecline,internationalpricesinJulyremainsimilartothoseinFebruary.Lowpricesandweakdemandarehurtingproducers.InColombia,Glencorehasannouncedreducedproductionupto10Mtin2025.InRussia,whereestimatessuggestmorethanhalfofcoalcompaniesaremakingaloss,thegovernmenthasannouncedsupportforthecoalindustry.InIndonesia,thelargestcoalexporterandonethatreliesheavilyonChina,producerswilltrytousethegrowingdomesticmarkettoredirectpartofthevolumeslostintheinternationalmarkets.

CoalMid-YearUpdate2025Demand

Demand

Globalcoaldemandgrewby1.5%in2024toreachanall-timehigh

In2024

2

,globalcoaldemandincreasedby1.5%comparedwith2023,reachinganewall-timehighof8.79Bt.Thisrepresentsacontinuationoftheupwardtrendincoalconsumption,albeitataslowerpacethangrowthratesof4.4%in2022and2.3%in2023.

Theincreasein2024wasprimarilydrivenbyemergingeconomiesinAsia,particularlyChinaandIndia.Chinarecordedthelargestabsolutegrowth,withdemandrisingby82Mt(1.7%)whileIndiasconsumptionincreasedby45Mt(4%).AdditionalgrowthwasobservedinIndonesiaandVietNam.Incontrast,coaldemanddeclinedsignificantlyinadvancedeconomies,notablyintheEuropeanUnion(down40Mt,or11%)andtheUnitedStates(down14Mt,or4%),largelyduetoreducedcoal-firedpowergeneration.

Asia-Pacificsshareofglobalcoalconsumptioncontinuedtogrow,withChina,India,andtheAssociationofSoutheastAsianNations(ASEAN)countriesestimatedtohaveaccountedforapproximately77%oftotaldemandin2024,morethandoubletheirshareatthestartofthiscentury.Thisshifthighlightstheregionsincreasinginfluenceonglobalcoalmarketdynamics.

Coal-firedpowergeneration,themaindriverofglobalcoaldemand,alsoreachedarecordhighin2024,estimatedat10766TWh.Incontrast,metallurgicalcoalconsumption,primarilyusedinironandsteelproduction,remainedrelativelystable,withaslightdeclineestimatedfortheyear.

Chinaremainsthedominantplayeringlobalcoalmarkets,consumingroughly30%morecoalthantherestoftheworldcombined.Itspowersectoraloneaccountsforone-thirdofglobalcoalconsumption,underscoringChinascentralroleinshapingthetrajectoryofglobalcoaldemand.

In2025,globalcoaldemandissettoremainnearsimilarlevelsto2024

Inthefirsthalfof2025,weestimatethatglobalcoaldemandsawaslightdeclineoflessthan1%,drivenbydivergingregionaltrends.Withamodestrebound

IEA.CCBY4.0.

22024numbersarestillpreliminary.

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CoalMid-YearUpdate2025Demand

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anticipatedinthesecondhalfoftheyear,weprojecta0.2%increaseforthefullyear,effectivelykeepingdemandbroadlysteadycomparedtothepreviousyear.

InChina,coal-firedpowergenerationfellbyaround3%throughJune2025,drivenbysubduedelectricitydemandandasignificantincreaseinoutputfromrenewablesources.Industrialcoalusealsodeclinedduetoweakmanufacturingactivity,exceptforthechemicalsector,whichremainedrelativelyresilient.Forthesecondhalfoftheyear,weexpectamodestrecovery,andthereforeanticipateoverallcoaldemandinChinatofallby0.5%in2025.

Similarly,Indiaexperienceda2.1%year-on-yeardropincoaldemandforpowergenerationinthefirsthalfoftheyear.Thiswasprimarilyduetoanearlyonsetofthemonsoonseasonandahighbaselineofconsumptionin2024,whichwasmarkedbyanintenseheatwave.Ontheotherhand,theIndiansteelsectorshowedsignsofstrength,asoverallindustrialcoaldemandwasestimatedtohaverisenby6%inthefirstsixmonthsoftheyear.Totalannualdemandisprojectedtoincreaseto1314Mt,up1.3%,duetoanexpectedreboundincoal-firedpowergenerationinthesecondhalfoftheyear.

Japanisanticipatedtoexperienceamoderatedeclineincoaldemand.Economicuncertaintiesareweighingonbothpowergenerationandsteelproduction,leadingtoaprojectedtotalcoaldemandof153Mtin2025.InKorea,coalconsumptionrecordedasignificantyear-on-yeardeclineof17%duringthefirsthalfoftheyear.Thisdownwardtrendisexpectedtosoften,withtotalcoaldemandforecasttoreach103Mtin2025.InChineseTaipei,theongoingnuclearphase-outhasnotresultedinincreasedrelianceoncoal.Instead,gas-firedpowergenerationhaseffectivelyfilledthegap.Asaresult,coaldemandfromthepowersectorisprojectedtodeclineby8%year-on-year,reaching43Mtin2025.Non-powersectordemandisalsoexpectedtofallby1.8%,bringingtotalcoaldemandto53Mt.

InIndonesia,coaldemandissettoexpandby7%to268Mtthisyear.Thegrowthismainlydrivenbythepowersector,althoughwealsoexpectgrowthinthedemandforcokingcoalandthermalnon-powerusessuchasthesmeltingindustry.

CoaldemandroseinthefirsthalfoftheyearintheUnitedStatesandEuropeanUnion,reversingthedecliningtrendseeninrecentyears.UScoaldemandroseanestimated12%inthefirsthalfoftheyear,withfull-yeardemandexpectedtoclimbby7%to400Mt.Strongelectricitydemandgrowthandhighernaturalgaspricesarethemainreasonsforthistrend.IntheEuropeanUnion,inthefirstquarterof2025,weestimatecoaldemandgrowthofaround5%.Withindustrialconsumptionindecline,themaindriverwastheelectricitysector,withlowhydroandwindpoweroutputpushingupcoaluseinacontextofrisingelectricity

CoalMid-YearUpdate2025Demand

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demand.InGermany,thelargestcoalconsumerintheEuropeanUnion,weestimatethatcoalpowergenerationincreasedby11%inthefirsthalfof2025.However,thesedevelopmentsarenotexpectedtoaltertheunderlyingstructuraldeclineincoaluseintheregion,andasaresult,weexpectadeclineofaround1.6%in2025,whichisasignificantslowdowncomparedwiththedropsofalmost11%in2024andalmost25%in2023.

AsignificanteventintheEUelectricitysectorwastheblackoutthatoccurredintheIberianPeninsulaon28April2025.However,thiseventhasnotimpactedourcoalforecastduetothelimitedcoalcapacityintheregion.

Globalmetallurgicalcoaldemandisexpectedtodeclineby1.6%in2025,duetoongoingeconomicuncertaintyandslowerGDPgrowthforecasts.Alongsidetheironandsteelindustry,thekeydriversofmetallurgicalcoaldemandareinfrastructureandconstruction,sodemandformetallurgicalcoalreflectsbroadereconomictrends.

Despitetheregionalandsectoralvariations,thefull-yearforecastforglobalcoaldemandin2025remainsbroadlyunchangedfromwhatwaspublishedinCoal2024inDecember2024.Lower-than-expectedconsumptioninChinaandIndiaisoffsetbystronger-than-anticipateddemandinotherregions,resultinginaflatprojectionoverallfor2025.

Theplateauincoalconsumptionisexpectedtocontinuein2026

For2026,globalcoaldemandisexpectedtodeclineonlyslightly,broadlyremainingonaplateauataround8.78Bt.Chinaremainsthebiggestforceshapingglobalcoaldemand.Thecountry’selectricitysectoristheprimaryfactordrivingcoaluse,influencedbyrisingelectricityneedsandthepaceofrenewableenergydeployment.China’scoalpowergenerationisforecastrecoverslightlyin2026afteradeclinein2025.Growthinthecoalconversionsectorisexpectedtocontinuein2026,whilecoaluseincementandsteelissettofall.Overall,anexpected0.9%increasein2026couldpushChina’stotalcoaldemandcloseto

5Bt.

Indiaisonceagainexpectedtorecordthesecond-largestincreaseincoalconsumption.Risingelectricitydemandwillbepartiallymetbycoal,pushingthecountry’scoalconsumptionupby2.5%to1.35Bt.

4.0.

Similarly,coalconsumptionintheASEANregionisexpectedtoincreaseby5%in2026,reaching547Mt.ThisgrowthisprimarilydrivenbyrisingdemandinkeycountriessuchasIndonesiaandVietNam.InIndonesia,coaldemandisprojectedtoriseby16Mt,supportedbyhigherpowergenerationneedsandcontinuedexpansionofthesmeltingindustry.InVietNam,demandisexpectedtoincrease

CoalMid-YearUpdate2025Demand

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by5Mt,largelyduetoadditionalcoal-firedpowergeneration.Incontrast,thematureeconomiesinAsia,JapanandKoreaareexpectedtoreducecoaldemandby8%and4%respectively.

Asia’sshareofglobalcoalusewillcontinuetoriseasthebiggestdeclineislikelytohappenintheEuropeanUnion,forwhichweanticipateasharpreductionof61Mt.Thereasonforthisexpectedslumpisthecombinationofincreasedpowergenerationbyrenewablesourcesandthecontinuationofcoalphaseouts.

RecentdevelopmentsintheUnitedStateshaveinfluencedthecoaldemandoutlook.ThenewUnitedStatesadministrationhassignalledsupportforthecoalindustry,whilerisingelectricitydemandandelevatednaturalgaspriceshavecontributedtoincreasedcoal-firedpowergeneration.On8April,thePresidentoftheUnitedStatesissuedtheExecutiveOrdertoReinvigorateAmerica’sBeautifulCleanCoalIndustry,whichcontainsmeasurestosupporttheUnitedStatescoalsector.Forexample,somecoalplantshavereceivedtemporarywaiversfromenvironmentalregulations,enablinghighercoalusethanpreviouslyexpected.Thefullimpactofothermeasureswilldependonimplementation,butasaresult,the2026coaldemandforecastfortheUnitedStateshasbeenrevisedslightlyupward,softeningthepreviouslyprojecteddecline.

Globalcoalconsumption,2023-2026

Mt

5

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

500

000

500

000

500

000

500

000

500

000

500

ASEANRestofWorld

ChinaIndiaUnited

0

EuropeanUnion

States

u2023a2024(preliminary)a2025(forecast)a2026(forecast)

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Note:ASEAN=AssociationofSoutheastAsianNations

CoalMid-YearUpdate2025Demand

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Changeinglobalcoalconsumption,2024-2026

Mt

8850

8800

8750

8700

2024(preliminary)

China

EuropeanUnionJapan

2026(forecast)

2025(forecast)

8650

India

ASEAN

RestofWorld

UnitedStatesKorea

TotalDemand

IEA.CCBY4.0.

Note:ASEAN=AssociationofSoutheastAsianNations

CoalMid-YearUpdate2025Supply

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Supply

Regardlessofmixedregionaltrendsin2024,coalsupplyreachedanunprecedentedlevel

Globalcoalproductionreachedarecord9.15Btin2024,drivenprimarilybystrongoutputinChina,IndiaandIndonesia.DomesticcoalisthelargestsourceofenergysupplyinbothChinaandIndiamakingcoalproductioncentraltotheirenergysecuritystrategies.Aftershortagesin2021,bothcountriesboostedproduction,apushthatlastedafewyearstoreachanall-timehighin2024.Chinaremainedthelargestproducer,maintainingoutputat4666Mt.AlthoughShanxi,traditionallythelargestcoalproducingprovince,reducedproductionby7%to1273Mtduetosafety-relatedconstraints,nationalvolumesweresustainedbystronggrowthinInnerMongolia(up90Mt)andXinjiang(up78Mt).

Indiaincreasedproductionby7%toreach1082Mt,aroundthree-quartersofwhichisproducedbyCoalIndiaLimited(CIL),whichremainsthemaindriverofnationaloutput.CILoutputgrew4%,or29Mt.However,thelargestgainscamefromcaptiveandcommercialmines,whichexpanded31%,producinganadditional44Mt.SingareniCollieriesCompanyLimited(SCCL),thesecondlargestproducerinIndia,experiencedadeclineof2.5Mt.

Indonesia,theworld’sthird-largestproducer,increasedoutputby8%to836Mt,supportedbyhighdomesticdemandandincreasingexportvolumes,particularlytoChina.InAustralia,productionincreasedaround3%to475Mt,despiteheavyrainfallsinthebeginningoftheyear.TheUnitedStatessawa11%drop,mainlyduetoahaltinthestockbuildingin2024.Mongolia’sproductionjumpedby21%asChineseimportdemandstrengthened.SouthAfricanproductionincreasedby1%,aspoweroutagesimpactedgrowthofdomesticcoaldemand.

Despitesluggishcoaldemand,2025issettobeanotherrecordyearforcoalproduction

In2025,weexpectglobalcoalproductiontoriseslightlyto9.2Bt,settinganewrecord.ThisincreaseisonceagainledbyChinaandIndia,withChina’soutputgrowingby6%year-on-yearduringthefirstsixmonthsoftheyear.However,thesameperiodin2024markedalowbaseduetotheproductioncutsinShanxi.TheprovinceisexpectedtoregainitspositionasChina’stopcoal-producingregionin

2025.Asaresult,output