【英文版】德国国际合作机构giz：气候适应规划-概述

Climate

Adaptation

Planning

–

An

OverviewCLIMATEANALYTICS91Zf⃞r

Internationalezusam

men

arbeit

(G1z)

GmbHAs

a

federally

owned

enterprise,

GIZ

supports

the

German

Governmentin

achieving

its

objectives

in

the

field

of

international

cooperation

forsustainable

development.Published

byDeutsche

Gesellschaft

fürInternationale

Zusammenarbeit

(GIZ)

GmbHRegistered

officesBonn

and

Eschborn,

GermanyAddressGIZ

Office

East

Asia

Sunflower

Tower

110037

Maizidian

Street,

Chaoyang

District100125

Beijing,

PR

ChinaE

climatechangechina@giz.deI

www.climatecooperation.cnProject

descriptionThisreportisan

output

ofthe

Sino-German

Cooperation

on

Climate

Change

-

NDCImplementation

Project,which

is

commissioned

by

the

Federal

Ministry

for

EconomicAffairs

and

Climate

Action(BMWK)aspartoftheInternational

Climate

Initiative

(IKI)and

implemented

by

Deutsche

Gesellschaft

für

Internationale

Zusammenarbeit

(GIZ)GmbH

together

with

theNationalCenterforClimateChangeStrategyandInternationalCooperation(NCSC)of

China,

NewClimate–

Institute

for

Climate

Policy

and

GlobalSustainability

(NCI)

gGmbH,

and

Climate

Analytics

(CA)

gGmbH.TheIKIisanimportantpartof

the

German

government’s

international

climate

finance

commitment.

Since

2022,

the

IKI

is

implemented

by

BMWK

in

close

cooperation

with

the

Federal

Ministry

for

the

Environment,

Nature

Conservation,

Nuclear

Safety

and

Consumer

Protection

(BMUV)

and

the

Federal

Foreign

Office

(AA).Project

DirectorPaul

RecknagelAuthorsPatrick

Pringle

(Climate

Analytics),

René

Rott

(Climate

Analytics),

Dr.

Jan

Sindt

(ClimateAnalytics),

Ian

Tellamn(Climate

Analytics)Responsible

CoordinatorXing

LianghuiDesignBeijing

Zhuochuang

Advertising

Co.,

LtdPhoto

creditshttps://699pic.comDisclaimerThe

findings,

interpretations

and

conclusions

contained

in

this

report

solely

represent

theviews

and

opinions

of

the

authors.

The

report

does

not

reflect

the

views

and

opinions

of

GIZ

orBMWK.Beijing,

July

2023Table

of

Contents1Introduction

11.1

Defining

Adaptation

21.2

Adaptation

Planning

31.2.1

Interactive,

Flexible

and

Inclusive

Adaptation

Planning41.3AdaptationPlanning

atDifferent

Scales42

Adaptation

Planning

Cycle

52.1

Preparing

the

ground

for

adaptation62.1.1

Launching

the

NAP

Process

72.1.2Stocktaking82.2Risk

and

Vulnerability

Assessments92.2.1

Understanding

Risk

&

Vulnerability92.2.2

Approaches

to

risk

assessment

102.2.3

Vulnerability

Assessments

102.2.4European&German

Context112.2.5

Identification,

Appraisal

and

Prioritization

of

Adaptation

Options

11

Identification

of

Adaptation

Options

12

Prioritizing

Adaptation

Options132.3Strategies

for

Implementation

142.3.1

Adaptation

Action

Plans142.3.2Roles

and

Responsibilities

142.4Monitoring

and

Evaluation

153

Developments

in

Adaptation

Planning173.1

Adaptation

Pathways

183.2Transformational

Adaptation

184

Challenges

of

Adaptation

Planning

204.1Data

Issues214.2

Inherent

Complexity

of

Adaptation

214.3

Limits

to

Adaptation

214.4TransferringRisk

Across

Spatial

Scales

215Conclusions

22Climate

Adaptation

Planning

–

An

OverviewList

of

FiguresFigure

1.

Adaptation

Planning

Cycle

(own

graph,

based

on

Tonkin

&

Taylor

International

Ltd)8Figure

2.

Core

concept

of

risk

as

result

from

the

interaction

of

climate-related

hazards,

with

vulnerability

and

exposure

of

humanand

natural

systems

(taken

from

IPCC,

2014,

p.

3)

11List

of

TablesTable

1.Categoriesof

adaptationoptions

(own

graph,

taken

from

IPCC,

2015).

14List

of

BoxesBOX

1.IPCCdefinition

of

vulnerability

and

adaptive

capacityBOX

2.National-level

assessment

approachinGermanyAcronyms

and

abbreviationsASTAdaptation

Support

ToolCAFCancun

Adaptation

FrameworkCCIVClimate

Change,

Impacts

and

Vulnerability

AssessmentCOPConference

of

the

PartiesEEAEuropean

Environment

AgencyEUEuropean

UnionIPCCIntergovernmental

Panel

on

Climate

ChangeLDCLeast

Developed

CountriesM&EMonitoring

&

EvaluationNAPNational

Adaptation

Plan/ProgrammeNDCNationally

Determined

ContributionNGONon-Governmental

OrganisationUASTUrban

Adaptation

Support

ToolUKCIPUnited

Kingdom

Climate

Impacts

ProgrammeUNFCCCUnited

Nations

Framework

ConventionClimate

Adaptation

Planning

–

An

Overview1Introduction1IntroductionAs

the

impacts

ofclimate

change

are

now

being

experienced

across

the

globe,

so

the

scale

ofthe

adaptation

challenge

is

becoming

increasinglyapparent.

Over

thelast

decade,

almost

everynationhas

begun

the

process

of

adaptation

planning

in

some

form.At

a

national

level,

many

countries

now

have

National

Adaptation

Strategies

or

National

Adaptation

Plans.These

often

inform,

and

are

informed

by,

sub–national

adaptation

planning

processes

which

are

usually

tailored

to

the

governance

structure

ofthe

country

and

the

different

tiers

ofgovernmentwhich

may

exist.The

number

ofsectoral

adaptation

plans

has

also

grown

considerably,

as

countries

better

understand

the

distinctchallengesof

adaptingto

climate

change.The

growing

demand

for

adaptationplanninghas

generated

a

burgeoning

academicliterature,

but

also

an

exponential

growth

inpractical

guidance,

tools

and

resources

aimed

at

those

tasked

with

developing

adaptation

plans.

While

climate

adaptation

is

inherently

context

specific,

it

is

clear

that

a

number

ofkey

principles

for

good

adaptation

planning

can

be

identified

which

can

be

ofconsiderable

value

to

those

beginning

this

process.

More

specifically,

the

framing

ofadaptation

as

a

cycle

is

extremely

valuable

for

those

trying

to

interpret

national

level

approaches

in

a

sub–national

context.This

approach

emphasises

adaptation

planning

as

a

continual

process,

rather

than

an

end

goal,

which

is

especially

important

as

we

continue

to

experience

worsening

climate

change

impacts,

including

multiple

interacting

impactsinincreasinglydynamicsocialand

economic

contexts.The

purpose

ofthis

briefing

note

is

to

consider

and

compare

the

more

practical

literature

on

adaptation

in

order

to

reflect

on

how

the

process

ofadaptation

planning

has

been

conceptualised,

and

to

identify

lessons

from

this

continually

evolving

field

which

can

be

used

as

Chinabegins

to

strengthen

adaptation

at

the

sub–nationallevel.We

focusparticularlyon

experiences

from

Europe

and

Germany,

however

itshouldbenotedthatmany

of

the

key

concepts

are

consistently

used

globally,

and

have

proven

to

be

useful

in

a

multitude

of

contexts.1.1

Defining

AdaptationIn

their

latest

assessment

report,

the

IPCC

defines

adaptation,

in

human

systems,

as

the

“process

ofadjustment

to

actual

or

expected

climateanditseffectsinorder

to

moderate

harm

or

take

advantage

of

beneficial

opportunities.

In

natural

systems,

adaptation

is

the

process

ofadjustment

to

actual

climate

and

its

effects;

human

intervention

may

facilitate

this”

(IPCC,

2022,

p.

5).

In

addition,

the

UNFCCC

states

that

“Climate

Change

adaptation

is

therefore

a

critical,

routine

and

necessary

component

ofthe

planning

process

at

all

levels”(UNFCCC,2012,p.

11).In

its

latestAR6WIII

report,

the

IPCC

further

states

that

“adaptation

plays

a

key

role

in

reducing

exposure

and

vulnerability

to

climatechange.

In

ecological

systems,

adaptation

may

happen

via

autonomous

adjustments

within

ecological

and

evolutionary

processes.

For

human

systems,

adaptation

can

be

anticipatory

or

reactive,

as

well

as

incremental

and/or

transformational.

The

latter

changes

the

fundamentalattributesofasocial–ecologicalsystem

in

anticipation

of

climate

change

and

its

impact.Adaptationis

subject

to

hard

and

softlimits”(IPCC,2022,

p.

7).References

to

transformational

adaptation

reflect

a

growing

recognition

that

in

some

situations

it

is

not

possible,

or

desirable,

seek

to

protect

or

restore

a

particular

environmental

and

social

state,

indeed

this

may

lead

to

maladaptation.

Consequently,

a

more

fundamental

changeprocess

maybe

required

(Lonsdale

et

al.

2015).This

is

significant

for

adaptationplanners

as

it

demands

a

different,

more

systemic

setof

questionstobeaskedwhenconsidering

both

climate

change

impacts

and

adaptation

responses.

Instead

of

asking

“how

can

we

do

the

samethingsinachangingclimate?”

it

requires

us

to

consider

whether

those

things

are

in

fact

viable

and

desirable.1

Introduction|

Climate

Adaptation

Planning

–

An

Overview21.2

Adaptation

PlanningAn

adaptation

strategy

often

refers

to

a

document

which

outlines

the

vision

and

direction

ofactions

and

their

expected

outcomes

(EEA,

Climate–ADAPT,

2022).

Adaptation

Plans

then

set

out

the

proposed

actions

to

transform

this

vision

into

actions.

In

practical

terms,

the

distinction

between

a

strategy

and

plan

is

being

made

along

two

dimensions.

A

strategy

consists

ofa

vision

while

a

plan

describes

a

roadmap

with

concrete

actions

to

implement

and

realise

the

vision.

More

important

is

the

distinction

between

adaptation

planning

as

an

output

(often

in

the

form

ofa

report

or

document)

and

adaptation

planning

as

a

process.

While

it

is

useful

to

capture

the

approach

to

adaptation

planning

in

a

single

document,

it

is

the

continuous

process

ofadaptation

planning

that

will

lead

us

to

meaningful

actions

whichenhanceresilienceand

reducevulnerability.The

importance

ofhaving

a

systematic

and

robust

adaptation

process

has

been

recognised

for

manyyears

and,

in

response,

awide

range

ofguidance

and

tools

have

been

developed.

Virtually

all

ofthese

resources

share

the

insight

that

the

adaptation

planning

process

can

be

broken

down

into

critical

phases

(see

Figure

1)

to

form

an

effective

framework

for

planning.

In

their

basic

structure,

the

various

frameworksdiffertoalimited

extent,

serving

as

flexible

approaches

for

decision–making

under

climate

change.Thecore

concepts

are

often

based

on

experiences

in

disaster

risk

reduction,

sustainable

livelihoods

and

development

and

climate

adaptation

programs

ofthe

past

and

generally

describe

a

continuous,

progressive

process

with

distinct

stages.

Critically,

all

adaptation

planning

frameworks

and

concepts

are

iterative;

they

acknowledge

that

adaptation

requires

adjustments

in

response

to

changing

knowledge

and

dynamic

contexts.

Adaptation

is

therefore

an

on–going

process

where

the

objective

is

to

be

“well

adapting”

rather

than

“well

adapted”

.A

useful

analogy

may

be

to

view

adaptationasajourneyratherthan

adestination.One

ofthe

early

frameworks

that

build

on

the

concept

ofan

iterative

adaptation

planning

cycle

is

the

UKCIP

Risk,

Uncertainty

and

decision–making

framework

(Willows

and

Connell

2003).This

framework

formed

the

foundation

for

the

practical

adaptation

planning

tool

known

as

the

Adaptation

Wizard

(UKCIP,

2013).

The

Wizard

is

based

on

a

5–step

process

designed

to

help

an

organisation

assess

its

vulnerability

to

current

climate

and

future

climate

change,

identify

adaptation

options

in

response

to

key

climate

risks,

and

help

the

developmentandimplementationof

aclimatechange

adaptation

strategy

(Climate–ADAPT,

2022a).TheAdaptation

SupportTool

(AST)

of

theEuropeanEnvironmentalAgency

(EEA)

aspart

of

theEuropean

ClimateAdaptation

Platform

(Climate–ADAPT,

2022b)

draws

heavily

on

the

principles

ofthe

Adaptation

Wizard

and

also

encourages

an

iterative,

cyclical

approach

to

adaptation

planning.TheAST

breaks

down

the

planning

process

into

six

phases

serving

different

purposes,which

in

turn

are

divided

into

different

steps

and

supplemented

byaccompanying

questions.Afirst

stage

aims

to

laythe

groundwork,

identifythe

problem

and

the

objectives.

The

next

phase

revolves

around

assessments

ofrisk,

vulnerabilities,

exposure

and

as

a

result

ofthis,

the

identification,

review

andappraisalof

possibleadaptationoptions.Athirdphase

contains

the

implementation

of

the

identified

adaptation

options,

includingthe

development

ofaction

plans.

As

a

fourth

phase,

the

monitoring,

evaluation

and

review/learnings

ofthe

implemented

options

completes

theadaptationplanning

cycle.TheUNFCCCliststhefollowingobjectivesfor

adaptation

planningprocesses

in

its

guidelines

(UNFCCC,

2012):1.Reducevulnerabilitytotheimpactsof

climatechange,

by

building

adaptive

capacity

and

resilience2.

To

facilitate

the

integration

ofclimate

change

adaptation,

in

a

coherent

manner,

into

relevant

new

and

existing

policies,

programmes

and

activities,

in

particular

development

planning

processes

and

strategies,

within

all

relevant

sectors

and

at

different

levels,

as

appropriate3.Identifygapsincapacityandadaptation

on

an

ongoingbasis

and

to

address

these

gapsFor

over

twenty

years,

the

importance

ofnational

level

adaptation

has

been

emphasised

by

the

UNFCCC

and

is

reflected

in

specific

processesandinitiatives.In2001,the

Conference

of

the

Parties

(COP)to

the

UNFCCC

established

the

Least

Developed

Countries

(LDC)

work

programme

that

included

the

development

ofnational

adaptation

programmes

ofaction

(NAPAs)

to

support

LDCs

to

address

the

challenge

ofclimate

change

given

their

particular

vulnerability.

Technical

guidelines

for

the

national

adaptation

planning

process

wereClimate

Adaptation

Planning

–

An

Overview|1

Introduction3then

developed

by

the

LDC

expert

group

(UNFCCC/LEG

2012),

and

these

remain

as

important

guidelines

for

countries

who

are

now

developing

national

adaptation

plans

(NAPs).

This

process

was

established

under

the

Cancun

Adaptation

Framework

(CAF)

to

enable

Partiestoformulateandimplement

national

adaptation

plans

(NAPs)

as

“a

means

of

identifying

medium–

and

long–term

adaptation

needs

anddevelopingandimplementingstrategiesandprogrammes”

(UNFCCC,

2022).1.2.1

Interactive,

Flexible

and

Inclusive

Adaptation

PlanningAll

ofthe

previously

mentioned

frameworks

are

built

on

principles,

success

factors

and

good

practice

considerations

(Street

et

al.

2016);and/or

key

experiences

&

guiding

principles

(UNFCCC

2012).

The

most

crucial

and

commonly

agreed

is

that

the

concept

ofthe

adaptation

planning

cycle

is

not

meant

to

be

strictly

sequential

and

linear,

and

it

is

often

depicted

as

a

continuous

cycle.

While

each

of

the

elements

might

complement

each

other,

and

processes

and

activities

can

subsequently

feed

into

further

activities

at

a

later

stage,

the

UKCIP

&

UNFCCC

highlight

that

their

guidance

is

designed

to

be

used

in

a

flexible

way

so

that

stakeholders

are

able

to

choose

stages

and

elements

that

fit

their

particular

context.

Good

decision–making

also

includes

going

back

to

a

previous

stage

after

receiving

new

informationornewdatahasbecomeavailable,

and

assessing

potential

new

adaptation

options.Hence,

Street

et

al.

(2016)

highlight

that

decisions

might

need

to

be

revisited

in

the

light

ofnew

evidence

to

develop

robust

adaptation

options.

In

addition,

past

experience

shows

that

successful

adaptation

planning

processes

should

be

inclusive,

involving

stakeholdersat

critical

points

during

all

phases

ofthe

process.

These

stakeholders

can

be

policy

makers,

community

groups,

non–governmental

organizations,

researchers

and

businesses,

who

can

accompany

and

influence

the

NAP

process.

Street

et

al.

(2016)

point

out

that

withinthe

above–mentioned

goals

and

underlying

criteria,

adaptation

planning

should

try

to

avoid

maladaptation;

a

process

that

results

in

increased

vulnerability

to

climate

variability

and

change

[…]

and

significantly

undermines

capacities

or

opportunities

for

present

and

futureadaptation

(Nobleetal,

2014:

1769).1.3

Adaptation

Planning

at

Different

ScalesPerhapsnotsurprisingly,muchof

the

focus

on

adaptation

planningwithin

the

UNFCCC

context

has

been

at

the

national

level.

However,as

the

Adaptation

Wizard

illustrates,

much

progress

and

innovation

in

adaptation

planning

approaches

has

come

from

sub–nationaland

organisational

levels.

The

interactions

between

approaches

to

adaptation

planning

at

different

spatial

scales

is

important.

There

are

benefits

in

consistent

approaches,

and

in

the

case

oftransboundary

adaptation

such

vertical

and

horizonal

coordination

is

essential.

However,

it

is

also

important

that

adaptation

planning

reflects

and

is

informed

by

the

local

social,

economic,

cultural

and

environmental

context,

therefore

one–size–fits–all

approaches

are

rarely,

ifever,

effective.

Exactlyhow

approaches

to

adaptation

planning

are

synchronised

at

different

spatial

scales

often

depends

on

the

governance

context.

For

example,

in

Europe,

the

EU

Adaptation

Strategy

provides

an

overarchingframeworkfor

adaptationplanningyet

allowsfor

autonomy

in

the

approach

to

the

development

of

national

adaptation

plans.

The

relationship

ofthese

national

adaptation

plans

and

with

sub–national

processes

varies,

however

generally

it

could

be

expected

that

the

national

level

helps

to

coordinate

actions

across

local

jurisdictions,

especiallywhere

they

relate

to

national

priorities,

while

providing

sufficientdecision–makingspaceforlocallyinformed

needs

andpriorities

to

be

addressed.1

Introduction|

Climate

Adaptation

Planning

–

An

Overview42AdaptationPlanning

Cycle2

Adaptation

Planning

CycleAs

described

above,

there

are

now

a

wide

range

ofadaptation

planning

tools

based

upon

the

adaptation

cycle,

including

the

Adaptation

SupportTool

which

is

a

major

feature

on

the

European

EnvironmentAgency

(EEA)

Climate–ADAPT

website.

Some

ofthese

tools

have

been

adapted

for

specific

sectors

or

localities,

for

example

there

is

now

an

UrbanAdaptation

SupportTool

(UAST

1)

to

assist

cities,

towns

and

other

local

authorities

in

developing,

implementing

and

monitoring

climate

change

adaptation

plans.

In

this

section,we

examine

the

adaptationcycleapproachin

more

detail.Rather

than

following

the

steps

ofa

specific

tool,

we

have

summarised

the

main

stages

ofthe

adaptation

cycle

as

outlined

in

Figure1.

Under

each

ofthese

stages

we

explore

how

adaptation

planning

tools

and

frameworks

have

prioritised

and

sequenced

specific

adaptation

planning

actions.

From

studying

different

frameworks

and

approaches,

it

is

clear

that

the

number

ofsteps

or

stages

identified

does

not

represent

a

significantpoint

of

difference;

in

most

cases

fewer

steps

simplymeans

that

two

stepshave

been

combined.As

such,

differences

arelargelypresentationalandconcernthelevel

of

emphasis

placed

on

aspects

of

the

planning

cycle,

rather

than

representing

fundamentally

differingapproaches.Figure

1.

Adaptation

Planning

Cycle

(own

graph,

based

on

Tonkin

&

Taylor

International

Ltd)2.1

Preparing

the

ground

for

adaptationIn

virtually

all

conceptualisations

ofthe

adaptation

planning

cycle,

there

is

an

important

preparatory

phase.This

sets

the

foundation

for

the

later

stages

and

ifrushed

or

overlooked,

can

lead

to

poor

decision–making

or

decisionswhich

are

not

implemented

effectivelybecause

keystakeholdershavenotbeeninvolved.Inthis

paper,we

have

organised

the

preparatory

elements

of

various

tools

under

the

title

“Preparing

the

ground

for

adaptation”

used

in

Step

1

ofthe

European

EnvironmentAgency’sAdaptation

SupportTool

(AST),

howeverwe

have

also4.

Reporting,

monitoringand

review•

Intiating

the

MSE

process•

M+E

metrics•

Institutionalconsiderations3.

Implementationstrategies•

Prioritisation

approach•

Developing

action

plans•

Allocation

of

responsibility•

Integrating

climate

change

adaptation

in

sectoraldevelopment

planning2.

Preparatoryelements•

Undertaking

aclimate

change

risk

assessment•

Identifying,

reviewing

and

appraisingadaptation

options1.

Laying

the

ground

work

and

address

gaps•

Launching

the

NAP

process•

Stocktaking2

Adaptation

planning

cycle|

Climate

Adaptation

Planning

-

An

Overview1https://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/en/knowledge/tools/urban-ast/6incorporatedinformationfrompreparatoryphasesof

other

tools

and

frameworks

which

use

an

alternative

lexicon.

For

example,

tools

such

astheUKCIPAdaptationWizard

(UKCIP,2013)referto

this

stage

as

“Getting

Started”whereas

Street

et

al.

(2016),

refer

to

“Scoping”.2.1.1

Launching

the

NAP

ProcessThe

initial

phase

ofadaptation

planning

endeavours

to

establish

the

groundwork

for

a

successful

overall

approach,

setting

it

up

in

a

structured

manner

and

offering

the

chance

to

influence

the

subsequent

stages

ofthe

process.

The

Adaptation

Wizard

(UKCIP,

2013)

stresses

the

importance

ofestablishing

building

blocks

which

include

understanding

how

the

adaptation

planning

process

works

so

the

user

can

make

best

use

ofit;

engaging

colleagues

and

gathering

a

team

towork

on

adaptation

planning

(noting

that

different

peoplewill

be

needed

at

different

stages);

and

obtaining

senior

management

support

for

this

process.

Secondly,

users

are

encouraged

to

reflect

on

their

motivation

(or

triggers)

for

adaptation

action.This

could

range

from

evident

exposure

to

a

climate

related

hazard,

a

desire

to

gain

a

competitive

advantage,

a

review

ofexisting

policies

or

new

leadership

or

expertise

joining

an

organisation.

Thirdly,

it

is

important

to

consider

what

you

want

to

achieve

and

the

difficulties

faced.These

considerations

help

ensure

that

organisational

priorities

are

clear,

and

thatgapsandbarriersthathave

been

considered

from

the

outset.The

UNFCCC

technical

guidelines

(UNFCCC/LEG

2012)

propose

the

creation

ofa

road

map

and

clearly

line

out

the

necessary

steps

to

set

up

the

process.This

could

also

take

the

shape

ofa

strategic

document

such

as

a

national

strate