undp -国家自主贡献洞察系列 The NDC Insights Series-jan-2026

UNITEDNATIONSDEVELOPMENTPROGRAMME

NDCInsightsSeries

FinalIssueJanuary2026

ADECADEOFTHE

PARISAGREEMENT:

ACOMPENDIUMOFNDCINSIGHTS

AboutFinalIssue

ThisfinalissueoftheNDCInsightsseriesistheculminationoftheInsightspublishedthroughout2025,whichcapturedtrendsemergingfromthethirdgenerationNDCs.Thisfinalissueexploresinsightsacross10keythematicareas,includingnewthemesthathavenotbeencapturedinpastseries,suchascitiesandclimateandpeaceandsecurity.ItalsoshowcasestheresultsoftheUNsystem’ssupporttocountries,undertheClimatePromise2025,inpreparingtheirnewpledgesandchartingthenextphaseofsupporttohelpcountriesaccelerateimplementationanddelivermoreambitionclimateaction.

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Copyright©UNDP2026.Allrightsreserved.OneUnitedNationsPlaza,NewYork,NY10017,USA.

3

Tableofcontents

Acronyms

3

Summary

5

OverviewofNDCsubmission

8

InsightsonNDCs1

0

Mitigationambition1

1

Adaptationambition1

3

Sectoralmeasuresandthematicapproaches1

5

Energy1

6

Transport2

0

Industry2

3

Forestsandlanduse2

5

Agricultureandfoodsystems2

8

Waterresourcesandoceans3

2

Health3

3

Circulareconomy3

5

Resilientandgreencities3

7

Climate,peaceandsecurity4

0

Disasterriskmanagement4

2

RioConventionssynergies4

4

Lossanddamage4

6

Countryownershipandinclusivity4

8

SDGalignment5

3

Justtransition5

6

Transparency

59Investibility

6

2

DeliveringonthePromise-UNsystemsupport6

6

Fromambitiontoaction7

4

Acknowledgements

7

6

Endnotes79

Acro

nyms

BRT

BTR

CBAM

CBD

CDRFI

COP

DCO

DRR

DRM

ECLAC

ESCAP

ETS

ETF

EW4All

EWS

EV

F-gases

FAO

G20

GCF

GESI

GHG

GMP

GST

HCWM

IFAD

ILO

IMF

IOM

IPPU

IP

IT

ITMO

ITU

LC

LDC

LDN

LEDS

LGIF

LTS

BusRapidTransit

BiennialTransparencyReport

CarbonBorderAdjustmentMechanism

ConventiononBiologicalDiversity

ClimateandDisasterRiskFinanceandInsurance

ConferenceoftheParties

DevelopmentCoordinationOffice

DisasterRiskReduction

DisasterRiskManagement

EconomicCommissionforLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean

EconomicandSocialCommissionforAsiaandthePacific

EmissionsTradingSystem

EnhancedTransparencyFramework

EarlyWarningsforAllInitiative

EarlyWarningSystems

ElectricVehicle

Fluorinatedgases

FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations

GroupofTwenty

GreenClimateFund

GenderEqualityandSocialInclusion

GreenhouseGas

GlobalMatchmakingPlatform

GlobalStocktake

HealthcareWasteManagement

InternationalFundforAgriculturalDevelopment

InternationalLabourOrganization

InternationalMonetaryFund

InternationalOrganizationforMigration

IndustrialProcessesandProductUse

IndigenousPeoples

InformationandTechnology

InternationallyTransferredMitigationOutcome

InternationalTelecommunicationUnion

LocalCommunities

LeastDevelopedCountry

LandDegradationNeutrality

Low-EmissionDevelopmentStrategy

LebanonGreenInvestmentFacility

Long-TermStrategy

LT-LEDS

LULUCF

M300

MEL

MRV

MtCO₂e

NAP

NBSAP

NDC

NF3

OECD

OHCHR

PaM

PM2.5

PwD

RBP

RCO

REDD+

SCALA

SDG

SIDS

SLCP

TOD

UN

UNCCD

UNCT

UNDP

UNDRR

UNECE

UNEP

UNFCCC

UNFPA

UN-Habitat

UNICEF

UNOPS

WFP

WHO

WMO

Long-TermLow-EmissionDevelopmentStrategy

LandUse,Land-UseChangeandForestry

Mission300AfricaInitiative

Monitoring,EvaluationandLearning

Measurement,Reporting,Verification

MetricTonnesofCarbonDioxideEquivalent

NationalAdaptationPlan

NationalBiodiversityStrategyandActionPlan

NationallyDeterminedContribution

NitrogenTriluoride

OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment

OfficeoftheUnitedNationsHighCommissionerforHumanRights

PoliciesandMeasures

FineParticulateMatter(2.5micrometers)

PersonswithDisabilities

Results-BasedPayments

ResidentCoordinator’sOffice

ReducingEmissionsfromDeforestationandForestDegradation

ScalingupClimateAmbitiononLandUseandAgricultureProgramme

SustainableDevelopmentGoal

SmallIslandDevelopingStates

Short-LivedClimatePollutant

Transit-OrientedDevelopment

UnitedNations

UnitedNationsConventiontoCombatDesertifi-cation

UnitedNationsCountryTeam

UnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme

UnitedNationsOfficeforDisasterRiskReduction

UnitedNationsEconomicCommissionforEurope

UnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme

UnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange

UnitedNationsPopulationFund

UnitedNationsHumanSettlementsProgramme

UnitedNationsChildren’sFund

UnitedNationsOfficeforProjectServices

WorldFoodProgramme

WorldHealthOrganization

WorldMeteorologicalOrganization

4

5

Summary

Ascountriesmark10yearssincetheadoptionoftheParisAgreement,thethirdgenerationofNationallyDeterminedContributions(NDCs)areadvancingambitionandshowingadecisiveshiftinquality.NewNDCsincorporatebroadersectoralactionandoutlinemorerigorousandconcreteimplementationpathways.Overall,thenewgenerationofNDCsarereinforcingacommitmentformultilateralismandinternationalcooperation.

Bytheendof2025,128Partiesrepresentingabout78percentofglobalgreenhousegas(GHG)emissionshadsubmittednewNDCsforthe2025cycle.Ofthese,61countriesweresupportedbytheUnitedNations(UN)systemunderthe

ClimatePromise2025

,representing71percentofalldevelopingcountrysubmissions.ThesupportfromtheUNsystemisevidentinmanynewNDCs.Countrieshavestrengthenedtheireconomy-wideemphasisonclimateaction,demonstratedcountryownershipandsocialinclusion,includedcomprehensiveco-benefitsforeconomicandsocialdevelopment,andrelectedahigher-levelofcredibilitythatencouragesinvestment.Severalkeytrendsareemerging.

•Countriesaretakingconcretestepsforwardonmitigationambitionandaligningtheirtargetswiththeirlong-termnet-zerotargets.However,persistentgapsremainintheshort-andmedium-term.Asthescienceunderscoresthata1.5°Covershootisinevitable,greaterambitionofnewNDCsandmoreurgentactioniscritical.Atthesametime,inlightofanexpectedovershoot,effortstoenhanceadaptationandaddresslossanddamageareequallycritical.ManynewNDCs,particularlyfromdevelopingcountries,haveprioritizedthesecomponentswithenhancedmeasuresandscope:90percentofdevelopingcountryNDCsenhancedadaptationand80percentmakeexplicitreferencetolossanddamage.

•NDCsaredemonstratingconcreteprogressinhighlightingkeysectorsandemergingthemesthatarefundamentaltocountries’economiesandsocietiesandwillhelpmovetheneedleonclimateaction:Notably,allcountriesincludeenergy,witharound80percentreferencingplanstoreducetheshareoffossilfuelsintheirenergymix,63percentincludingquantifiedrenewableenergytargetsandover50percentofthosewithcoalintheirelectricitymixmentioningplanstophasedownunabatedcoalpower.Almost90percentincludeforest-relatedmeasuresforbothmitigationandadaptation,recognizingforests’vitalroleinbothcurbingGHGemissionsandstrengtheningresilientlivelihoods.Emergingthematicareassuchascirculareconomy(referencedby84percent)andclimate,peaceandsecuritylinkages(70percentofcountriesinfragilesettings)demonstratewideningrecognitionoftheinterconnectednatureofclimateanddevelopmentpriorities.

•Thenewclimatepledgesaremorefullyembeddedinnationaldevelopmentprioritiesandprocessesandhavestrongercoherencewithotherinternationalframeworks,includingtheRioConventionsandsustainabledevelopmentgoals(SDGs).CountriesareincreasinglyaligningNDCswithnationaldevelopmentandsectoralstrategies.Atthesametime,95percentofNDCsincludeddirectreferencestotheroleofnatureandbiodiversity,aligningwiththebiodiversityandlandrestorationagendasundertheRioConventions.Thiscoherencestrengthensgovernance,reducespolicyfragmentationandreinforcesintegratedapproachestotacklingclimate,natureandland-relatedchallenges.

6

•NewNDCsaredeepeningcountryownership,enhancinginclusivityandadvancingjusttransitioncommitments.Mostcountries(95percent)embeddedgenderequalityandsocialinclusionintheirNDCs,whilemorethan90percentincludedjusttransitionprinciples,recognizingtheneedforequitable,socially-groundedpathwaysthatprotectworkers,communitiesandvulnerablepopulationsaseconomiesdecarbonize.

•Countriesareemphasizingtheimportancesofrobusttransparencymechanismsandsettingclearersignalsforinvestmenttoturntheirambitionintoaction.Thisisakeypriorityfordevelopingcountriesthatareadvancingefortstostrengthentransparencysystemsascornerstonesofcredibility,accountabilityandmarketreadiness.NewNDCsrelectthat88percentofdevelopingcountriesaremovingbeyondad-hocreportinganddevelopingpermanentnationaltransparencyframeworks,while80percentareprovidingclearersignalsforfinancewithmorethanhalfincludingcostedmeasuresanddetailedgovernancestructurestoenableimplementation.However,manydevelopingcountries,especiallyLeastDevelopedCountries(LDCs)andSmallIslandsDevelopingStates(SIDS),stillrequireadditionalsupporttomovefromambitiontoactionableinvestmentplanscomplementedbydatasystems.

Thisfinalissueofthe

NDCInsightsSeries

istheculminationoftheinsightspublishedthroughout2025,whichcapturedtrendsemergingfromthethirdgenerationNDCs.Itprovidesevidencetohighlighthowcountriesarepresentingstrongerclimatecommitmentswhileclearlyarticulatingthesupportneededtodeliverthem.Thisfinalissueexploresinsightsacross10keythematicareas,includingnewthemesthathavenotbeencapturedinpastseries,suchascitiesandclimateandpeaceandsecurity.ItalsoshowcasestheresultsoftheUNsystem’ssupporttocountries,undertheClimatePromise2025,inpreparingtheirnewpledgesandchartingthenextphaseofsupporttohelpcountriesaccelerateimplementationanddelivermoreambitionclimateaction.

Section1

OverviewofNDCsubmission

OverviewofNDCsubmission

Asof31December2025,atotalof128parties

,1

representingaround78percentofGHGemissions,

2

havesubmittednewNDCsforthe2025cycle(Figure1).Theseincludesubmissionsfrom21SIDS,19LDCsand18G20members.TworemainingG20membersthathaveyettosubmitanewclimatepledgeareArgentinaandIndia.

DuringNovember2025,therewasasurgeinNDCsubmissionsfrom53Partiesaspoliticalmomentumwasbuildinginthelead-uptoCOP30.However,over50PartieswhichinitiallywereexpectedtocommunicatetheirnewpledgesatCOP30postponedsubmissionsto2026duetobothpoliticalandoperationalreasons.Asaresult,over60PartiesarenowexpectedtocommunicatetheirnewNDCsin2026.

Figure1.NumberofNDCsubmissionsforthe2025cycle,bymonth(November2024toDecember2025)

53

2

Nov

2

Dec

3

Jan

11

Feb

1

Apr

2

May

2

Jun

2

July

3

Aug

30

Sept

8

Oct

Nov

9

Dec

AtCOP30,NDCswereattheheartofmanydiscussions,includinghowtorespondtorecentsubmissions.Despitechallengingcircumstances,COP30concludedwiththe“BelémPackage,”whichaimedtoaddressthisquestion.Itincludesreferencetotwonewpresidentialinitiatives:1)TheGlobalImplementationAcceleratorfocusedonsupportingcountriestoimplementtheirNDCsandNationalAdaptationPlans(NAPs)and2)theBelémMissionto1.5oC,tofosterambitionandinternationalcooperationonmitigation,adaptationandinvestment.TherewasalsoacknowledgementofsupportfromUNorganizationsandotherdevelopmentpartnerstohelpcountriesimplementtheirnewNDCs.Overall,theBelémPackagewasahard-foughtcompromisethatreinforcedtheParisAgreement,the1.5°Climitandtheimportanceofadaptation,includingtheadoptionofasetofindicatorsfortheGlobalGoalonAdaptationandthecommitmenttotripleadaptationfinanceby2035.Headinginto2026,andontheroadtoCOP31,countrieswillcontinuetoprioritizeacceleratingNDCimplementation.InsightsonboththeprocessandoutcomesofpreparingthelatestNDCscanhelptoguideandstrengthentheseeforts.

8

Section2

InsightsonNDCs

10

InsightsonNDCs

ThissectionexploresinsightsonNDCsacross10keyareasillustratedbelow.Keymitigationandadaptationsectorsarefurtherexploredunderthe‘sectoralmeasuresandthematicapproaches’area.Theseincludeenergy,transport,industry,forestsandlanduse,agricultureandfoodsystems,waterresourcesandoceans,health,circulareconomy,resilientandgreencities,climate,peaceandsecurity,anddisasterriskmanagement.

Adaptationambition

Sectoral

measuresandthematic

approaches

Rio

Conventions

synergies

Loss

anddamage

Mitigationambition

SDGalignment

Justtransition

Transparency

Investibility

Country

ownershipandinclusivity

11

NDCINSIGHTON

Mitigationambition

TheParisratchetmechanismisworking:newNDCsrevealprogressascountriesareapplyingarangeofapproachestoalignwiththeglobalstocktake(GST)guidanceandraisemitigationambition.

NewNDCsarebroadlyconsistentwithalineartrajectoryfromtheir2030targetstotheirlong-termnet-zerotargets,yet,persistentgapsinmitigationambitionremain,particularlyintheshort-andmedium-term.Urgent,science-basedpoliciestosignificantlycutemissionsandenhancecarbonsinks,areessentialtoclosenear-termgaps,limitovershootandquicklyreturntoa1.5°Cconsistentpathway.

ThethirdgenerationofNDCsmarksacriticalmilestoneintheglobalclimateambitioncycle.AscountriesrespondtotheoutcomesofthefirstGST,

3

UNDPanalysisofnewNDCssubmittedasof31December2025revealprogressonmitigationambitionascountriesareapplyingarangeofapproachestoalignwiththeGSTguidance.Thisincludes:increasingGHGtargets,strengtheningthequalityoftheunderlyingGHGdata,expandingsectoralscopeandcoverageofGHGs,andimprovingalignmentwithlong-termstrategies.

ProgressioninmitigationambitionisvisibleacrossGHGemissionstargetformulationandconfigu-rationmodalities.Trendsweareseeinginclude:

•Amajorityofcountries(over75percent)haveputforwardeconomy-wide2035GHGtargets

4

-withseveralcountriesintroducingthesetargetsforthefirsttime.

•SomecountriesoptforanabsoluteGHGemissionscaptargetorspecifyapeakemissionsyear,enhancingtransparencyandenablingbettertrackingofdecarbonizationpathways.

•Agrowingproportionofcountrieshaveincreasedtheirunconditionaltargets,relectingstrongerdomesticcommitmentandreducedrelianceoninternationalsupport.

•Severalcountrieshaveputforwardenhanced2030GHGtargets,recognizingtheurgencytohalveglobalGHGemissionsby2030.Thispositivestepunderscorestheneedforaccelerated,urgentactionalongsidegreaterambitionworldwidetoclosetheGHGemissionsgapthisdecade.

Scopeandcoveragearealsoimproving.BelowprovidesanoverviewofhowthescopeandcoveragehavebeenexpandedcomparedwithpreviousNDCs.

89%

expandsectoraland/orsub-

sectoralpoliciesandmeasuresformitigation

31%

addanewmitigationsectororsub-sector,

mostlyIndustrial

ProcessesandProductUse(IPPU)

38%

addnewgases,mainlyF-gases

12

Manycountriesreferenceoralignwithlong-termstrategies(LTS/LT-LEDS),embeddingnet-zerotargetsandinterimmilestones.AnalysesfromUNFCCC’s

2025NDCSynthesisReport

revealsthattheemissionstrajectoriessetoutinnewNDCsarebroadlyconsistentwithalineartrajectoryfromtheParties’2030targetstotheirlong-termnet-zerotargets.

However,persistentgapsinmitigationambitionremain,particularlyintheshort-andmedium-term.

WithnewNDCs,GHGemissionsin2035areprojectedtobearound12percentbelow2019levels,comparedtoanincreaseof20to48percentbeforetheadoptionoftheParisAgreement.ThisshowsthatPartiesarelayingoutclearstepping-stonestowardsnetzero,althoughaccelerationofactionisstillneeded.UNEP’s

EmissionsGapReport2025

projectsa2.3–2.5°CrisewithfullNDCimplementation,downfrom2.6–2.8°Clastyear.TheParisratchetisworking,butnotfastenoughtokeep1.5°Cwithinreachwithoutalimitedovershoot.Urgent,science-basedpoliciestosignificantlycutemissionsandenhancecarbonsinks,includinghaltingandreversingdeforestation,areessentialtoclosenear-termgaps,limitovershootandquicklyreturntoa1.5°Cconsistentpathway.

SPOTLIGHT

Barbados

Barbadoshasadvanceditsclimateambitionwithamorestructuredandambitiousnewclimateplan.ThenewNDCcommitstomaintainitsambitious2030targetof70percentbelow2030business-as-usuallevelsandreach95percentrenewableelectricityandafulltransitiontoelectricvehicles.Atthesametime,itintroducesaneconomy-wideemissionreductiontargetof45percentbelow2008levelsby2035.Barbadosalsocommitstoself-financing65percentofmitigationcosts,upfrom50percentinthepreviousNDC.Underscoringthiscommitment,thenewNDCalsointroducessector-specificdecarbonizationpathways,especiallyinenergy,includingtransportandcooling.Assuch,itemphasizesnet-zeroemissionsby2050,withclearerinterimmilestones,aligningitsstrategywiththe1.5°Cpathwayandalong-termvisionofafossilfuel-freeeconomy.

Exploremorespotlights

online

.

NDCINSIGHTON

Adaptationambition

13

Developingcountriesareadvancingadaptationambitionandaligning

NDCswithNAPsandsustainabledevelopmentpolicies.Nearly90percentofnewNDCsfromdevelopingcountrieshaveastrengthenedadaptationcomponent,over80percentreferenceNAPsorrelatedadaptationinstruments,and45percenthavestrongalignmentwithsustainabledevelopmentpolicies.ThissetsamajorshifttowardspromotingadaptationaspartofabroadersustainabledevelopmentapproachcomparedtoearlierNDCiterations.

Adaptationcommitmentsarebecomingmorespecific,measurableandmulti-sectoral,witharound80percentofnewNDCsexpandingsectoralcoverage,83percentaddingdetailedmeasureswithinexistingsectorsandnearly50percentsettingquantifiabletargets.

Adaptationhasbecomeadefiningfeatureofthe2025NDCcycle.UNDPanalysisofnewNDCssubmittedfromdevelopingcountriesasof31December2025forthe2025revisioncycleshowsthatalmostallcountries(nearly90percent)areintensifyingefortstoaddressincreasinglyfrequentandsevereclimateimpactsthroughanenhancedadaptationcomponentoftheirnewNDCs.Morespecifically,themajorityareexpandingtoincludenewsectors(78percent),addingdetailedmeasureswithinexistingsectors(83percent)andintroducingquantifiabletargets(47percent).Manygovernmentsaremovingbeyondbroadintentionstoarticulateactionablepathwaysforclimate-resilientdevelopment.

83%

expand

adaptation

measureswithinsectors

78%

addnewpriority

adaptationsectors

47%

setquantifiableadaptation

targets

ThereisastrongtrendofenhancingalignmentbetweenNDCadaptationprioritiesandNAPs.Morethan80percentofnewNDCsreferenceNAPsorrelatedplanningprocesses—akeyalignmentindicator.Alignmentiscriticalbecauseitreducesfragmentationandinstitutional‘siloing’,strengthenscoordinationandisakeyenablerofincreasedadaptationfinancebecausealignmentalsoimplies,interalia,commoninvestmentprioritiesandmonitoringandevaluationframeworks.

Countriesarealsoincreasinglygroundingtheiradaptationstrategiesinnationaldevelopmentframeworks.OfnewlysubmittedNDCs,45percentindicatestrongalignmentwiththecountry’sbroadersustainabledevelopmentpoliciesandplans,byintegratingNDCtargetsandmeasuresintonational

14

planning.Thisrelects,amongotherthings,growingpolicycoherence,interestinsystems-levelresilience,improvedearlywarningcapacities,andenhancedmonitoring,evaluationandlearning(MEL)frameworks.

WhilemanycountrieshaveexpandedtherangeofsectorsincludedintheirNDCs,adaptationprioritiescontinuetoprimarilycentreonagricultureandfoodsecurity,waterresources,publichealth,ecosystemsandinfrastructureandthebuiltenvironment.ManyNDCsarenowexplicitlylinkingadaptationprioritiestotheirnationaldevelopmentvisionsandplans,climateorenvironmentlaws,andsectorstrategies.Thisiskeyevidencethatadaptation,andclimateactionmoregenerally,isakeypillarofnationalapproachestosustainabledevelopment.

SPOTLIGHT

Supportingclimate-resilientlivelihoodsinMongolia

Photo:UNDPMongolia/SaruulDolgorsuren

Mongolia’sNDC3.0expandedadaptationmeasureswithspecificgoalsandtargetsacrosseightkeysectors(biodiversity,water,forests,animalhusbandryandpastureland,arablefarming,health,socialprotectionandlivelihoodsanddisasterriskreduction),whileaddingtwonewsectors(educationandculture).GiventhatMongolia’seconomyandrurallivelihoodsrelyheavilyonclimate-sensitivenaturalresources,addressinganimalhusbandry,pasturelandandarablefarmingisparticularlycritical.Thesesectorsfacegrowingvulnerabilitiesfromclimateimpacts,threateningfoodsecurityandherderlivelihoods.Enhancingsustainablelivestockmanagementandclimate-resilientcropproductionisthereforeessentialforstrengtheninglong-termresilience.TheUNDP-FAO

SCALAprogramme

hassupportedMongoliainassessingtheestablishmentofforeststripsaroundarableland,providinganevidencebasefordefiningagriculturesectoradaptationtargetsinNDC3.0.Theprogrammealsofacilitatedmultistakeholdersectoralworkinggroupstodefinemeasuresforanimalhusbandryandarablefarming,includinggender-specifictargets.SCALAwillcontinuesupportingMongoliatoimplementitsNDC3.0throughcapacity-buildingongender-responsiveclimatebudgetingandthedevelopmentofde-riskingstrategiesandinvestment-readyproposalstomobilizeprivateinvestmentinNDCpriorities.

Exploremorespotlights

online

.

NDCINSIGHTON

Sectoralmeasuresandthematicapproaches

15

Thefollowingsectionexploresinsightsacrosskeysectorsandthemesasillustratedbelow.

Energy

Agricultureandfoodsystem

Resilientandgreencities

Transport

Waterresourcesandoceans

Climate,peaceandsecurity

Industry

Health

Disasterriskmanagement

Forestsandlanduse

Circulareconomy

16

SECTORALMEASURESANDTHEMATICAPPROACHES

Energy

ThemajorityofnewNDCslayoutplanstoincreasethedeploymentofrenewableenergyandimprovee