伯恩斯坦-全球储能：长远视角：电池技术将持续优化-Global Energy Storage：The Long View：Batteries to only get better-20260202

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GlobalEnergyStorage

TheLongView:Batteriestoonlygetbetter

NeilBeveridge,Ph.D.

+85221232648

neil.beveridge@

BrianHo,CFA

+85221232615

brian.ho@

HengliangZhang

+85221232629

hengliang.zhang@

Theimprovementinbatterytechnologyoverthepastdecadehasbeenoutstanding.Energydensityhasincreasedfrom50Wh/kgto350Wh/kgwhichhasimprovedtherangeofanEVtoover500milesonasinglecharge.Chargingspeedshaveincreasedfrom1Cto12Cwhichmeansyoucanadd400kmrangetoanEVin5minutes.ForESS,thenumberofcycleshasincreasedfrom1,000to20,000whichhasdramaticallyloweredthetotalcostofstorage.

Solidstatebatterytechnologyisonthehorizonandcoulddoubleenergydensity.

CommercializationofsolidstatebatteriesshouldbetheiPhonemomentforthebattery

industry.Notonlywillthesebatteriesbesafer,butenergydensitycoulddoublefromcurrentlevels.WeLion(notlisted)hasachievedanenergydensityof824Wh/kgandistargeting

1000Wh/kg.Weexpectcommercializationofsolidstatebatteriestotakeplacefrom2027onwardbasedoncompanyannouncements.

Li-AirandLithium-Sulfurbatteriescouldtakebatteryenergydensityintothe

realmofgasoline.Whilethetheoreticalenergydensitylimitoflithium-airis11,150Wh/kgthehighestenergydensityachievedis1,200Wh/kg.Gasolinewhenadjustedfor

the20%fuelefficiencyofcombustionenginesoffers2,400Wh/kg,only2xwhatis

achievablebyabattery.Whilecompaniesareworkingonthistechnology,wedon’texpectcommercializationuntilthemiddletoendnextdecade.

Asbatteriesgetbetter,theircostscontinuetofall.Batterycostshavedeclinedbyover90%since2010.LastyearLFPcostsfelltolessthanUS$70/kWhfromoverUS$1,000/kWhbackin2010.Asmanufacturingcontinuestoscaleupandenergydensitycontinuestoimprove,webelievethatcostswillcontinuetofall.Na-iontechnologycouldwellunleashtheUS$50/kWhbattery.

NewapplicationsareemergingwhichisincreasingtheTAM.Asbatteriesgetbetterandcheaper,newapplicationsareappearingbeyondEV’sandESS.Batterypowered

heavy-dutytruckingandmarinevesseldemandisgrowingrapidly.The500Wh/kgbatterywilllikelyopenupthecommercialaviationmarketforregionalpassengerjetswhich

accountfor50%ofallairtravel.Humanoidroboticsisanotherindustrywhichcouldbetransformedthroughbatteryimprovementswhichwillallowlongerusefullife.

Thebestopportunitiesareincompaniesattheleadingedgeoftechnology.Asnewbatterytechnologyemerges,companiesattheleadingedgewhocancommercializetheirproductswillbethewinners.Withnosignofthetechnologyladderslowinginbatteries,CATLremainsourtoppickgiventheirleadingpositioninbatterytechnologyandworld-classmanufacturingexpertise.

SeetheDisclosureAppendixofthisreportforrequireddisclosures,analystcertificationsandotherimportantinformation.Alternatively,visitour

GlobalResearchDisclosureWebsite

.

FirstPublished:02Feb202620:30UTCCompletionDate:02Feb202615:41UTC

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BERNSTEINTICKERTABLE

2Feb2026

TTM

ReportedEPSReportedP/E(x)

Ticker

Rating

Cur

Closing

Price

Target

Rel.

Perf.

Cur2025A2026E2027E

2025A2026E2027E

Price

300750.CH(CATL)

O

CNY

348.98

530.00

(2.1)%

CNY11.13

15.31

19.46

31.4

22.8

17.9

3750.HK(CATL)

M

HKD

486.60

530.00

NA

CNY11.13

15.31

19.46

38.9

28.3

22.3

051910.KS(LGChem)

M

KRW

298,500

310,000

(12.2)%

KRW(13,258.70)

2,042.47

31,253

(22.5)

146.1

9.6

373220.KS(LGES)

M

KRW

385,000

363,000

(28.5)%

KRW(5,308.10)

1,811.04

9,536.96

(72.5)

212.6

40.4

006400.KS(SDI)

M

KRW

383,000

310,000

27.5%

KRW(9,933.80)

(509.43)

16,169

(38.6)

(751.8)

23.7

ASIAX

1,770.49

O-Outperform,M-Market-Perform,U-Underperform,NR-NotRated,CS-CoverageSuspended

300750.CH,3750.HKbaseyearis2024;

Source:Bloomberg,Bernsteinestimatesandanalysis.

INVESTMENTIMPLICATIONS

Batterieshaveimprovedbeyondrecognitionoverthepast30years.Energydensityhasimproved7xto350Wh/kg.Charging

speedhasmovedfrom1Cto12Cwhichmeansabatterycanbechangedin5minswithover400kmofrange.Thenumberof

cycleshasimprovedfrom1,000to15,000andup20,000forsodiumionbatteriesgivingalifeof20yearsforESS.Finally,all

thishasbeendonewhilethecostsofabatteryhavebeenloweredby95%fromoverUS$1000/kWhtolessthanUS$70/kWhforLFPlastyear.Withcheaper,betterbatteriesmoreapplicationswillopen.TodaybatterydemandisdominatedbyEV’sand

ESS.Inthefuture,demandwilllikelycomefromheavy-dutycommercialvehicles,shipping,aviationandrobotics.Whilebatterieshavecomealongway,energydensitycouldpotentiallydoublefromcurrentlywithsolid-stateto700Wh/kganddoubleagaintoover1,200Wh/kgwithlithium-airandlithiumsulfur.Thiswouldtakebatteriesto50%oftheusefulenergydensityofgasoline,butwithcostswhicharemuchlower.Forcompaniesattheforefrontofbatterytechnology,thiscontinuedtechnologyladder

shouldofferacompetitivemoat,whichiswhywecontinuetofavorCATLasourtoppickintheindustry.

GLOBALENERGYSTORAGEBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP2

GLOBALENERGYSTORAGEBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP3

NeilBeveridge,Ph.D.+85221232648neil.beveridge@3February2026

VALUATIONCOMPSTABLE

EXHIBIT1:Globalbatterycompanies'comparisons

Panasonic,SKInnovation,GotionHighTech,Sunwoda,CALBandEVEarenotcoveredbyBernstein

Source:Bloomberg(consensusestimates)andBernsteinanalysis

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DETAILS

Batterytechnologyhasevolvedbeyondrecognitionsincethefirstcommerciallead-acidbatterieswereintroducedover

100yearsago.Overtime,theenergydensityofbatterieshasconsistentlyimprovedasnewchemistriesandnewproduction

methodshavebeendeveloped.Thediscoveryofthelithium-ionbattery(LIB’s)effectivelydoubledtheenergydensityofthe

nickel-cadmiumbattery.Intheearly1990's,LiBshadanenergydensityof50Wh/kg.Today,thebestlithium-ionbatterieswhicharecommerciallymassmanufacturedhaveanenergydensityatthecelllevelofupto350Wh/kg.Thisisalmostanorderof

magnitudehigherthanlead-acidbatteries(theoriginalbatteryformat)whichhaveanenergydensityof30-40Wh/kg.Overthepast30yearsannualimprovementinenergydensityhasbeenonaverage10Wh/kgperyear.Thishasenabledelectricvehiclestotransitionfromnicheproductswitharangeof250milestovehicleswhichcanachieveover600milesonasinglecharge.

EXHIBIT2:Batteryenergydensityimprovement.Li-ionbatteriesarereachingthelimitof350Wh/kg.SolidStateisthenextfrontierwhichwouldtakecellenergydensityto500Wh/kg

1200

1100

CellEnergyDensity,Wh/kg

1000

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

HighestE/DdemonstratedinLabusingLi-O2/Li-Ar~1,200Wh/kg

WeLion

Li-SLi-O2

Dec2025laboratorytestASSBwithLi-Metal824Wh/kg

SDI

ASSbattery500Wh/kg

Solid-StateBattery

CATLcondensedbattery500Wh/kg

Mass-producedbatteryHigh-Nickel/Si350Wh/kg

NMC

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

HistoricalenergydensitySolid-statebatteryCondensedbatteryLi-O2/Li-Arbattery

Source:ShmuelDe-LeonEnergy,Companydata,Bernsteinanalysisandestimates

Butakeyquestionishowmuchfurthercantheenergydensityofbatteriesimprove?Thereisgoodreasontothinkmuchfurtherandthatwearestillatanearlystageofthistechnology.Atitsupperlimit,Li-airtechnologyistheonlyelectrochemicalsystem

thatapproachestheenergydensityofgasolinemakingitthe"holygrail"forlong-rangeelectricaviationandheavytransport.The"theoreticallimit"ofaLi-airbattery(themostadvancedbatteryyetconceived)variesbasedontheelectrolyteused(aqueousvs.non-aqueous)andthespecificchemicaldischargeproduct(lithiumperoxidevs.lithiumoxide).Butpurelyinscientificterms,thespecificenergyofalithiumairbatterycouldreach40.1MJ/kgor11,150Wh/kg.Thisis85%ofthechemicalenergydensityofgasoline,whichis46.8MJ/kgor12,900Wh/kg.

Whilethisisimpressive,the‘effectivegap’betweenlithium-ionbatteriesandgasolineismuchsmaller.Gasolineenginesare

notoriouslyinefficient,convertingonly15%to25%ofthefuel'schemicalenergyintoactualkineticmotion.Theremaining75%to85%islostasheatandfriction.Electricdrivetrainsontheotherhandconvert90%oftheenergystoredinthebatteryinto

motion.Thismeansthatwhenadjustedforefficiency,the"useful"energydensityofgasolinedropstoapproximately2,580Wh/kg.Thisisonly7xgreaterthanthebestcommercialcells(350Wh/g),andonly2xbetterthanthebestlithium-ionbatterieswhichhavebeendevelopedinthelaboratory.

Whathavebeenthebestbatteriesevermade?

ThebestcommercialbatterywhichhasbeenmassedproducedistheQilinbatterydevelopedbyCATLwhichhasanenergydensityof350Wh/kgatthecelllevel.ThisbatteryisaconventionalliquidbatterywithahighnickelcathodechemistryandcurrentlybeingmassproducedforelectricvehiclesinChina.

CATL’sCondensedMatterBatteryrepresentsagenerationalleapinenergystorage,achievingarecord-breakingenergy

densityofupto500Wh/kgatthecelllevel.Unveiledinitiallyin2023,thetechnologyisdesignedtobridgethegapbetween

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traditionalliquidlithium-ionbatteriesandfutureall-solid-statesystems,specificallytargetingthecivilaviationandhigh-endelectricvehicle(EV)markets.Asofearly2026,thistechnologyhastransitionedfromlaboratorybreakthroughtoactiveflighttestingandisslatedforasignificantautomotive-gradeproductionramp-upinearly2026.

Asofearly2026,thehighestenergydensityrecordedforalithium-basedsolid-statebatteryinalaboratorysettingis824Wh/kg,achievedbytheChinesesolid-statebatterydeveloperWeLionNewEnergyinDecember2025.Thismilestonesignificantlyexceedsthepreviouspeer-reviewedrecordof711Wh/kgheldbytheInstituteofPhysicsattheChineseAcademyofSciences(CAS)since2023.Thisrecordwasachievedusinganall-solid-statearchitecture.Whilespecificcathodedetailsforthecell

remainproprietary,managementconfirmedtheuseofasulfide-basedelectrolytesystem,whichoffershighionicconductivitybutiscurrentlylimitedbyextremelyhighrawmaterialcosts.WeLionhasstatedtheirlong-termlaboratoryroadmaptargetsthe1,000Wh/kgbarrier.

ThehighestdemonstratedfiguresinvolveLithium-AirorLithium-Oxygenconfigurations.ResearchersatArgonneNational

Laboratoryandotherinstitutionshavedemonstrateddesignscapableof1,214Wh/kg.Thesesystemsleverageafour-electronreactionthatallowsthemtoreachenergydensitiesfourtimeshigherthancurrentstate-of-the-artLithium-ioncells.However,thesecellsoftensufferfromextremelylimitedcyclelifeandhighoverpotential.Nevertheless,theyshowthepotentialofhow

goodbatteriescouldbecome.

EXHIBIT3:Batterycellenergydensity

Energydensity,Wh/kg

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

0

Source:ShmuelDe-LeonEnergy,Companydata,Bernsteinanalysisandestimates(2025+)

EXHIBIT6:Rangeperformanceofselectedmodels

EPARange,km

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

0

Source:Companydata,Bernsteinanalysis

EXHIBIT4:PeakEVchargingrate

Chargingspeed,C

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

0

Source:Companydata,EV-database,Bernsteinanalysisandestimates(2025+)

EXHIBIT7:Chargingperformanceofselectedmodels

Chargingspeed,km/min

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

0

Source:Companydata,EV-database,Bernstein

analysis

EXHIBIT5:Batterylifecycle

Lifecycle,times

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

0

Source:Companydata,EV-database,Bernsteinanalysisandestimates(2025+)

EXHIBIT8:LevelizedCostofStorage(LCOS)

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

LCOS,US$/MWh

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Source:Companydata,EV-database,Bernstein

analysis

Whatarethecurrentlimitstobatteryenergydensity?

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Inpractice,lithium-ioncellscurrentlyachieveonlyaportionoftheenergydensityimpliedbythechemicalpotentialoftheiractivematerials.Thetechnicallimitsforexistinglithium-ionandlithium-basedbatteryenergydensityaredefinedbythreeconstraints:chemical(thermodynamic),engineering(massefficiency),andoperational(stability/safety).

TheEngineeringLimit:Themostimmediatetechnicallimitistheratioofactivematerials(lithium,cathodepowders)toinactivematerials(packaging,currentcollectors,separators,andbinders).

•Massoverhead:Inmoderncommercialcells,activematerialstypicallyrepresentonly30–40%ofthetotalweight.

•Weightbreakdown:Thecathodeaccountsfor20–25%ofpackweight,whiletheanodeis5–10%.Inactivecomponentsliketheelectrolyte,separator,andcasingaddtheremaining65–70%.

•The"70/30"rule:Foracellwithatheoreticalchemistrylimitof350Wh/kg,engineeringoverheadusuallydragsthepracticaloutputdowntoroughly250Wh/kg.

TheOperationalLimit:Evenifthebatterychemistryallowsforhighenergy,thematerialsmustsurvivetheelectricalandmechanicalstressofcharging.

•Thevoltagewindow(ESW):TheenergydensityislimitedbytheElectrochemicalStabilizationWindowoftheelectrolyte.Liquidcarbonateelectrolytestypicallybecomeunstableabove4.5V,preventingtheuseofhigher-voltagecathodes.Whilenewdesignstarget5.1V,theyoftensufferfromrapiddegradation.

•Latticestability:Inhigh-nickelcathodeslikeNMC811,extractingtoomanylithiumions(delithiation)causesthecrystallatticetocollapse.Thisresultsinparticlecrackinganda20%volumetricexpansion,whicheventuallyseverselectricalcontact

withinthebattery.

TheChemicalLimit:Theultimatetechnicallimitfor"Lithium-Ion"batteriesisthephysicalspaceavailableinthecathodehost.

•Intercalationlimit:TraditionalLi-ionbatteriesworkby"stuffing"ionsintoalattice.Wearereachingthepointwherewecannotjammoreionsintothehostmaterialwithoutstructuralfailure.

•Theanodebreakthrough:Movingtoanode-freeorsiliconnanowiredesignsrepresentsthecurrent"state-of-the-art"pathtobypasstheselimits.Byeliminatingthebulkygraphitehost(whichrequires6carbonatomsforevery1lithiumatom),energydensitycanjumpby40–50%instantly.

SolidStateBatteries

Thenextparadigmshiftinbatterytechnologyissolidstatebatteries.WhileLiBshaveimproveddramaticallyoverthepast

30years,theyareapproachingtheirtechnicallimitsintermsofenergydensity(400Wh/kg)andareunlikelytodecrease

significantlyincostsbeyondwhatisplannedthroughto2025.Moreover,theyalsohavesafetyissueswhichariseoutofusingaliquidelectrolytewhichismadeofflammablematerial.

Toachieveahigherenergydensity(500Wh/kg),solidstatebatteriesaredesignedwithasolidelectrolyte(whichalsoactsasaseparator)andaLi-ionmetalanodewhichreplacesthegraphiteanode.Lithiummetalhasahightheoreticalspecificcapacityof3860mAhg-1,versusthetheoreticalspecificcapacityoftheconventionallyusedgraphiteanodeat372mAhg-1.Thismeansthatlithiummetalcanstore10timesmoreenergythangraphite.Li-ionmetalisnotcompatiblewithaliquidelectrolytesystembecauseoftheformationofdendrites.

SSB'snotonlyhaveahigherenergydensity,buttheyalsoarepotentiallysafer,withlessriskofoverheatingandcombustion

giventhesolidratherthanliquidelectrolyte.Webelievethearrivalofsolid-statebatterieswillbeassignificanttothebattery

industryasthearrivaloftheiPhonewasforthesmartphoneindustry.Thetransitiontoall-solid-statebatteriesshoulddelivera50-100%jumpinenergydensityovercurrentpremiumNMCbenchmarks.CompaniessuchasCATL,SamsungSDIofare

targetinganenergydensityof500Wh/kg,theoreticallyenablingvehiclerangesof800milesforthesamebatterypackweightthatcurrentlyoffers500miles.

Intermsoftiming,globalleadersinASSBmanufacturing,suchasSamsungSDI,areexpectedtoachievemassproductionby

2027.Currently,Chinesebatterymakersarefollowinganearlyidenticalcommercializationtimeline.CompanieslikeGotionhave

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alreadydisclosedtheestablishmentofpilotproductionlinesandaimtobuild2GWhmassproductioncapacityby2026.

Theholygrail:Lithium-SulphurandLithiumAir

Beyondsolid-statearelithium-sulfideorlithium-airbatterieswhichhavethepotentialtoincreaseenergydensityevenfurthertoover1000Wh/kg.Metal-aircellswhichuseoxygenastheactivecathodematerialandareactivemetalastheanodeareseenastheholygrailofbatteries.Inthesebatteriesthecurrentisgeneratedfromoxidationoflithiumattheanodeandreduction

ofoxygenatthecathode.Thishasthehighestenergydensityofanybatterytechnologyandwouldobviouslybelowercost

givenbasicmaterialsrequired.Pairinglithiumandoxygencanleadtoatheoreticalspecificenergyof40.1MJ/kgwhichis

90%ofgasoline.InpracticeLi-airbatterieswithaspecificenergyof1,240Wh/kghavebeendemonstrated.Thisisabout5xgreaterthanthebestavailablecommerciallithium-ionbatteryonthemarkettoday.TherearemanychallengeshoweversuchascontaminantsintheairincludingwaterandCO2whichcandegradethecell.Moreover,theprocessisinefficientandcauses30%ofenergytobewastedduringeachcycle.ThedischargerateisalsolowerthanthatofaLiBgivingpotentiallylowpowerdensity.

Asofearly2026,thecommercializationofLithium-Air(Li-Air)batterieshastransitionedfromacademictheorytoactivepilot-

scaledevelopment.ThemarketiscurrentlydominatedbythreespecializedU.S.players:AirEnergyLLC,SolidEnergies,and

PolyPlusBatteryCompany,alongsideinstitutionalprogramslikeARPA-E’sPROPEL-1K,whichisfundingthepushtoward1,000Wh/kgenergydensities.WhileLi-sulfideorLi-airbatteriesrepresentthefuture,theyremainlongtermaspirationsandare

unlikelytobedevelopeduntilafter2030andcommercializedmuchlaterinthedecadeattheearliest.

Fastchargingbatteries

OverthepastfiveyearstherehasbeenarapidimprovementinchargingspeedofleadingEVmodelsfrom5kmto>30kmperminute.Thisshoulderadicaterangeanxiety.Justafewyearsago,2C(fullchargein30mins)wasthestandard.Todaychargingspeedhasimprovedto12C(i.e.fullchargein5mins).Theimprovementinbatterychargingspeedhasincreasedmorerapidlythanenergydensity.TheverifiedoverallrecordforanintegratedEVbatterypackisheldbytheUKstartupNyobolt,which

demonstrateda10%to80%chargein4minutesand37seconds(effectivelyasustained12C+rate)inlate2024.In2025CATLunveiledthe2nd-GenShenxingFastChargingBatterywhichcandeliver520kmofrangeona5-minutecharge(12Catpeak).ItisthefirstLFPbatteryintheindustrytocombinean800kmrangewithapeak12Cchargingcapability,delivering520kmofrangewith5-minutecharge(vs.400kmona5-minutechargeforBYD).Ofcourse,italsorequiresfastcharging

stationsandhighvoltagevehicles,butthisisjustaquestionofinvestmentandtime.

BeyondChina,Toyotaisleadingthecommercializationofsolid-statebatteries,whichpromisetofurtherrevolutionizechargingspeeds.Theirtechnologyaimstoreplenish500kmofrangeinjust5minutes(or100kmperminute).Toyota’sfirstsolid-state

batteryisexpectedtodeliverover1,000kmofdrivingrangewithafastchargingtimeof10minutesorlessforastateofchargeincreasefrom10%to80%.Thisbreakthroughhasthepotentialtousherinaneweraforelectricvehicles,thoughitwillalso

necessitatesubstantialinvestmentsingridinfrastructuretosupporttheserapidchargingcapabilities.

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EXHIBIT9:Batterychargingspeedimprovementfrom5kmperminuteto>40kmperminute(2019-2025)

120

Chargingspeed,kmperminute

100

80

60

40

20

0

CATLShenxingGen2battery

105km/min

ToyotaASSBbattery100km/min

CATLShenxingPlusbattery

60km/min

BYDSuper-EPlatformbattery60km/min

Mass-producedbattery40km/min

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

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2039

2040

HistoricalchargingspeedCATLBYDToyota

Source:Companydata,EV-database,Bernsteinanalysisandestimates

Long‘lifecycle’batteries

ForBESSlifecycleisbecomingincreasinglyimportanttolowerthecostofstorage.ThecyclelifeofESShasundergonea15ximprovementsincetheearly2010s,evolvingfromlead-acidbaselinesof~1,000cyclestothecurrentindustry"goldstandard"of15,000cyclesledbyChinesemanufacturerslikeCATLandBYD.Thistrajectoryrepresentsa12%CAGRimprovementin

longevitysince2015,effectivelyextendingtheoperationallifeofgrid-scaleassetsfrom10yearstoover20years.Butthereisstillmoretocome.CATLandHithiumarenowdebutingsodium-ioncellstargeting20,000cycles,leveragingsodium'sinherentstabilitytodriveLCOSevenlowerinstationaryapplicationswhereweightislessconstrainedthanintransport.

Thejumpto15,000cycleshasledtoafundamentalimprovementineconomics.Next-generation15,000-cyclesystems(e.g.,CATLTENER)aredriving"best-in-class"LCOSdownto~$84/MWh,downfromUS$130-280/kWhjustafewyearsago.

Previously,ESSprojectsrequireda"mid-lifeaugmentation"whichmeantaddingnewbatteriesafteryear8or10asoriginalcellsdegraded.A15,000-cyclebatterycantheoreticallycycletwicedailyfor20yearswithoutfallingbelowthe80%StateofHealth(SOH)threshold,eliminatinghundredsofmillionsinprojectedcapexforlarge-scaleprojects.Byaligningbatterylifewiththe20-yearlifespanofsolar/windassets,developerscanimproveprojectreturns.

Batteriesaregettingcheaper

Lithium-ionbatterycostshavefallenastaggering96%since1991,whichisanincredible10%CAGRcostreductionover30years.Largebatterycells,whichwereonlyintroducedtothemarketinvolumesinthelast10yearshaveseenanevenmoredramaticcostdeclinewithpricesfalling19%CAGRoverthelast10yearsasthelessmaturelargecellbatterycostscatchupwithsmallcells,whichareclosetoparityonapackbasistoday.

Weattributethiscostreductionto(1)‘WrightsLaw’andtheproductionlevelsreachingeconomiesofscaleinlargefactoriesand(2)therelentlessimprovementinenergydensitywhichdrivesdowncosts.Lastyearspotpricereachedthebottominthemiddleof2025,US$93/kWhforNMCpackandUS$69/kWhforLFPpack.Whilepriceshaverecoveredwiththeriseinmaterialcosts,thelong-termdirectionoflowerbatterycostasenergydensityimproveslooksunstoppable.

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EXHIBIT10:Withincreasingenergydensity,weestimatebatteryprices(atthepacklevel)couldfallby35%from$170/kWin2022to$110/kWhby2025.Forbatteriestofallbelow$90/kWhwillrequirenewcelldesignssuchassolid-state

Packprice,$/kWh

1,250

1,200

1,150

1,100

1,050

1,000