KROLL-餐饮业洞察-2025年回顾

IndustryInsights

RestaurantIndustry

2025YearinReview

RestaurantSectorInsightsOverview

TheU.S.macroeconomicbackdrop,headingintotheendof2025,continuedtochallengetherestaurantsectorinboththeoperatinganddealenvironments.TheFederalReservedeliveredthree25bpsinterestratecutsin2025(75bpstotal),withthelastonesignalinga“tougherroughahead”forfurtherreductions.Thislimitedmonetaryeasing,coupledwithasofteninglabormarketandrisingunemployment,hasstagnatedgrowthinconsumerdiscretionaryincome.Consumerspendingpatternshaveconsequentlyshifted:moredollarsareflowingtowardtravelandexperiencesattheexpenseofrestaurantconsumption,asover60%oftravelersreportbeingmorediscerningontheirdiscretionaryspendallocationtorestaurants.

M&AactivityintheU.S.restaurantsectorshowedearlymomentumin2025butslowedmarkedlyastheyearprogressed.AfterastrongdealpaceinQ1,transactionflowstalledamidtariff-relatedvolatilityfromMarchtoMay,whenuncertaintypromptedroughly30%ofcompaniestopauseorrevisitdeals.Whileaggregatedealvalueisupyear-over-year,dealvolumehasnotrebounded.Globally,first-half2025M&Avolumeswereabout10%lowerthaninthesameperiodof2024evenastotaldealvaluerose15%,andintherestaurantsector,totaltransactioncountdeclinedroughly30%,year-over-yearthroughlate2025.Dealsarestillgettingdone,butthemarketisincreasinglybifurcated:acquirershavegrownmoreselective,focusingonhigh-qualitytargetsanddeferringorabandoningmore“marginal”transactions.Inparallel,refinancingactivityhasacceleratedasprivateequitysponsorsseekpartialliquiditythroughdividendrecapitalizationsandaddressloomingdebtmaturitiesfrompandemic-erafinancing,reflectingheightenedpressuretooptimizecapitalstructuresamidaconstrainedexitenvironment.

Despiteanuptickinselectheadlinedeals,overallsectorfundamentalsremainedsubduedin2025.U.S.restaurantperformancesoftenedasconsumerspulledback:amajorityofoperatorsreporteddeterioratingbusinessconditions,withnearlytwo-thirdsofrestaurantsseeingdeclinesincustomertrafficthisyear.Manysegmentspostedflatornegativesame-storesalesgrowth,forexamplefast-casualandquick-servicebrandsstruggledtoboostsalesamidcautiousspending.Value-focusedcategorieslikecasualdiningmanagedmodestgainsbyleveragingpromotions,andaffordability,againstasocialbackdroptosustaintraffic.Inthisenvironment,investorfocusandvaluationshavebecomeincreasinglypolarized.Scaled,franchise-drivenrestaurantbrandsremainstronglyfavoredbybuyersandcontinuetocommandpremiumdealmultiples.Franchiseassetsareattractivefortheirasset-light,scalablemodelsandpredictablecashflows,andinvestorsarepayingupforgrowth-orientedplatformsinresilientorculturallyrelevantniches.Forinstance,CrumblCookies,Dave’sHotChicken,ShipleyDonuts,andPuraVidaMiami,fourhigh-growthconcepts,eachsecuredsignificantinvestmentsfromhigh-caliberprivateequityfirmstofuelnationwideexpansion.Incontrast,smallerindependentoperatorslackingscale,provenportabilityordifferentiatedpositioninghavefacedamorecautiousvaluationenvironment,asacquirersprioritizeprovenconceptswithstronguniteconomics.

Asofthedateofthisreport,themedianLastTwelveMonths(LTM)EnterpriseValue(EV)/EBITDAmultipleforpublicequitiesacrosstheU.S.restaurantsectorwas8.5x.TheS&PRestaurantIndexhasincreased11.4%inthelast12months,performingbelowtheS&P500by48.6%.

Thisreportaimstosynthesizethespectrumofmacroandsector-specificdataintomeaningfultrendsandinsights,focusingonkeythemes,issuesandgo-forwardopportunities.

2

Wehopeyoucontinuetofindthisreport(andfutureeditions)tobeausefulsourceofinformation.

Tableof

Contents

KeySectorThemesin2025Same-StoreSalesGrowth

PublicSectorPerformance

PublicRestaurantValuations

3

Kroll’sRestaurantM&APractice

4

Bxecutivesummary

xecurtivesummary

xecutivesummaryBxecutivesummary

ExecutiveSummary

Tightenedconsumerspendingagainstelevatedpriceenvironmentdirectly

impactingrestauranttraffic

Restaurantandgroceryinflationcostscontinuetomoderate

AIanddigitally-enabledconceptsare

winningtheconsumerwhileharvestingdatainsights

ContinuedbifurcationinM&Amarket,favoringdifferentiated,scalableandassetlightconcepts

Privatecreditcapturingshareofdebt

financingopportunitiesasbankappetiteremainslukewarm

ChallengingTrafficEnvironmentPersists

GrowthinSSS

largelyattributed

topricingactions

tooffsetprime

costinflation

Tariff-related

uncertaintydrovevolatilityintrafficandsalestrends

Elevated

consumertravel

abroad(forthe

secondstraight

year)softened

trafficandsales

momentum

Poorweather

conditionsacross

theU.S.

negatively

impactedtraffic

3.2%

1.8%1.9%

1.2%

1.2%

(1.5%)

1.1%1.1%

0.9%

0.9%

0.7%

0.7%

1.1%1.5%1.3%

0.3%

0.3%

(2.6%)

0.0%0.2%

(2.5%)(2.3%)

0.2%

(0.4%)

(0.4%)(0.6%)

(1.9%)

(2.3%)(2.1%)

(2.5%)

(2.1%)

(2.7%)

(3.0%)

(1.3%)

(4.3%)

(2.6%)

(1.4%)

(1.4%)

(3.5%)

(1.5%)

(2.3%)

(2.2%)

(3.4%)

(4.3%)

(5.7%)

(6.9%)

Jan-24Mar-24May-24Jul-24Sep-24Nov-24Jan-25Mar-25May-25Jul-25Sep-25Nov-25

SSSTraffic

Source:BlackBoxIntelligence

5

Source:BlackBoxIntelligenceNovember25’(Filters:LocationType:Nation;Cuisine:AllCuisines,Metric:TotalSales;Calculation:Median)

6

RestaurantSectorMonthlySSSTrends

ImprovingSSSinCasual,FastCasual,andQuickServicecategoriesunderscoreconsumerpreferenceforvalueandconvenience,whilerecentgainsinFineDiningsuggestareboundatthepremiumend,evenasotherupscalesegmentsremainunderpressure

Same-StoreSalesGrowth

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

(2%)

(4%)

(6%)

(8%)

(10%)

QuickServiceFastCasualCasualDiningFamilyDiningUpscale/PolishedCasualFineDiningIndustryAverage

RestaurantandGroceryInflationNormalizeastheGapCloses

RestaurantandGroceryYoYPriceInflation

—0—YoY%RestaurantInflation—0—YoY%GroceryInflation

13.5%

13.1%

13.0%

12.4%

12.2%

12.0%

11.8%

11.9%10.8%

11.3%

8.8%

10.1%

8.6%

10.1%8.7%

8.3%

7.7%

7.1%

8.5%8.5%8.4%

SinceMarch2023,groceryandrestaurant

inflationhasmoderatedduetosupplychain

improvementsandgradualdecreasesin

commodityprices.Restaurantinflation,

althoughsoftening,hasdeclinedless

sharplythangroceryinflationduetorising

foodandlaborcosts

8.3%

6.5%

7.7%

8.0%8.6%8.3%8.2%

7.5%

6.0%

7.1%

7.2%7.4%7.6%

6.9%

6.8%

5.2%

5.4%5.3%

6.4%

5.8%

4.5%

4.7%

5.1%

4.2%

4.1%

3.6%

3.0%

2.4%

4.0%4.1%4.1%4.0%3.9%3.8%3.6%3.6%3.8%4.1%3.8%3.9%3.8%3.8%3.9%3.9%3.7%

2.7%

2.3%2.4%2.4%

2.1%

1.9%2.0%2.2%

2.7%

1.7%

1.6%1.8%2.2%

1.3%

1.2%

1.2%

0.9%1.1%

1.1%1.1%1.1%1.2%1.3%1.1%

Jan-22May-22Sep-22Jan-23May-23Sep-23Jan-24May-24Sep-24Jan-25May-25Sep-25

TheGapNarrows

oThegapbetweenrestaurantand

groceryinflationhasnarrowedby

nearly300bpssinceJanuary2024duetorisinggrocerycosts.The

increaseingrocerycostsisprimarilyattributabletotariffsimposedon

goodsthattheU.S.importsfromnationsfacinghigherlevies

oOverthepastfiveyears,theaveragerestauranthasexperienceda35%

riseinfoodandlaborcosts

o50%ofrestaurantsplantoraise

menupricesfurtherifinflation

persists.Itisestimatedthat,to

maintainamodest5%profitmargin,theaveragerestaurantwouldneedtoraisepricesupwardsof30%fromwheretheywereon2019menus

Sources:FederalReserveEconomicData,CBSNews,NationalRestaurantAssociation,BusinessInsider

7

Source:BlackBoxIntelligence,TheRail,FRED,EconomicResearchServiceUSDA

8

SalesGrowthRemainsPositiveDespite

TrafficDeclinesandOngoingCostPressure

SalesGrowthOutpacesTrafficDeclineinU.S.Restaurants

4%

2%

0%

(2%)

(4%)

(6%)

(8%)

SSSTraffic

Oct-23Feb-24Jun-24Oct-24Feb-25Jun-25Oct-25

oSamestoresales(SSS)haveremainedpositivesinceMarch2025andreachedtheirhighestvalueinJuly2025(2.4%).However,growthhasgraduallysoftenedsinceAugust2025

oRisingunemploymentandinflationcoupledwithlowconsumersentimentandthegovernmentshutdowndrovedeclineinsamestoretraffic(SST)

oInOctober2025,FastCasualsawagainof0.5%inSSSand3.1%insameSST;FamilyDiningalsopostedadeclineof0.4%inSSSand5.4%inSST,whereasFineDiningoutperformedwitha3.5%increaseinSSSdespite

SSTfallingby2.8%

2025SeesPersistentFoodPricePressures

Food&BeverageInflation(Percentchangefromayearago)

12%

9%

6%

3%

0%

Jan-20Sep-20May-21Jan-22Sep-22May-23Jan-24Sep-24May-25

oFoodpricesin2025havestabilizedabovehistoricallevels,withmodestupwardpressuredrivenbynewimporttaxes

oCumulativefoodcostincreaseshavedrivensignificantmenupriceinflation,withmenupricesup~42%from2020-2025,nearly2xoverallinflation

(~22%)

oSelectcommodities,suchasbutter(-33%),eggs(-29%),milledrice(-8%),freshfruit(-8%),refinedsugar(-7%),wheatflour(-6%),cheese(-6%)andmilk(-5%),postedYoYpricedeclinesinSeptember2025;however,pricesremainmateriallyelevatedversuspre-2021levels

Source:Restroworks,RestaurantBusinessOnline,RestaurantDive,CompanyWebsites

9

RestaurantsareEmphasizingValueinResponseto

Consumer“Trade-Down”Behavior

Afternearlythreeyearsofincreasingmenuprices,restaurantchainsarecombattingdecliningtrafficbyenticinginflation-weary

consumerswithlargepromotionsanddiscounts

oMenupricesatlargerestaurantchainshaverisenby~30%onaveragesince2019,withrestaurantsofferingpromotionalofferstomitigatedecliningtraffic

Consumersareweighingqualityandexperiencefirst,followedbycomparativemenupricesandlowprices,asmenupriceshaveincreased.Value-orientedvisitsaccountedfor~30%ofcommercialfoodservicetrafficinthepast12months,the

highestlevelobservedinfivedecades

Shareofdeal-driventraffichasrisenby3.1%since2022,markingthestrongestsurgesincetheGreatRecessionof2008–2010

oValueofferingsarehelpingdrivetraffic,withconsumer-perceivedvaluemenutrafficincreasing1%sector-wideinthequarterendingJune2025

51%

ofconsumersusecouponsat

restaurantstheyregularly

visit

22%

increaseinsearchesfor

“valuemeal”year-over-year

inearly2025

40%

citebettervalueasthe

primaryreasonforswitching

theirpreferredrestaurant

62%

ofdinersprefertoreceive

restaurantdealsthrough

digitalcoupons

SelectPromotionsAcrossRestaurantChains

$5MealDeal

McDouble/McChicken,

smallfries,four-piece

ChickenMcNuggets,

andasmalldrink

。mcoeu

$7LuxeCravingsBox

GetChalupaSupreme,

Burrito,Taco,Chipsand

nachocheesesauce

andadrink

$10.993forMe

Chooseyourbeverage,starterandmain

$10.99TwoForYou

Enjoyhalfasandwich,

halfsaladoracupof

soup

$8.99LunchPlate

Yourchoiceofachicken

sandwich,cheeseburger

orgrilledchickensalad

withaside

$12.99CreateYourOwnPasta

Pickyourfavoritepasta,

sauceandtoppingalong

withnever-endingfirst

course

$55‘FamilyPack’Deal

Getfoursteaks,two

sides,adozenrollsand

asalad

RestaurantsRespondingtoShiftingConsumerPreferences

ReactionaryRestaurantInitiatives

oRestaurantsarefocusingonadoptingAI,personalization,immersivediningexperiences,andbrandcollaborationstoenhanceconsumerengagement

71%

ofquick-serviceand68%

offull-servicerestaurants

offerloyaltyprograms,

withadoptionexpectedto

hit80%bytheendof

2025

85%

ofconsumersplacemore

trustinfoodblogger

recommendationsthanin

traditionaladvertising

88%

ofdinerstrustonline

reviewsfarmorethan

personalrecommendations

65%

consumersprefer

restaurantswithdigitalor

contactlesscheckout

16.5%

CAGRisprojectedforthe

restauranttechnology

marketby2033,signaling

stronggrowthpotential

30%

reductioninorder

errorsinrestaurantsis

beingachievedwith

thehelpofAIsystems

EvolvingConsumerBehavior

GamifiedLoyaltyProgramsDriveRetention

Trend

Reaction

Restaurantsareelevatingloyaltyprogramsfromsimplediscountschemestodata-drivenengagementstrategies,leveragingpersonalizationandomnichannelintegrationtodeepencustomerrelationships

Operatorsinvestindigitalloyaltyplatforms,gamification,andAIpersonalization,linkingprogramswithmobileappsandpaymentsforaseamlessexperience

SocialMediaShapesDiningChoices

Trend

Reaction

Dinersincreasinglyrelyononlinereviewsandsocialmediabeforechoosingwheretoeat;influencerrecommendationsarehighlytrusted

Restaurantsareamplifyingtheirdigitalpresencethroughcreativecampaigns,influencerpartnerships,andreputationmanagementtoolstoattractandengagecustomers

Voice-EnabledOrdering&ConversationalAI

Trend

RestaurantsareintroducingvoicetechnologyandAI-driveninterfacestosimplifyordering,improveaccessibility,andenhanceoverallcustomerconvenience

Reaction

Operatorsintegratevoice-enabledkiosks,drive-thrusystems,andmobileappswithPOSplatforms.

InvestorsbackNLPandAIpersonalizationtoolstoboostengagement,cutlaborcosts,andspeedservice

DynamicPricingGainsMomentum

Trend

Reaction

Restaurantsareadoptingdynamicpricingmodelstoadjustmenupricesbasedondemand,timeofday,andingredientcosts,drivenbyinflationandmarginpressures

OperatorsdeployAI-poweredpricingenginesandreal-timeanalyticstooptimizemarginswhilemaintainingtransparencyandcustomertrust

Source:BankofAmericaRestaurantIndustryReport,Restroworks,Wi-FiTalents,MenuTiger,Toast,HoulihanLokey

10

Source:Gitnux,Hyper-Robotics,PRNewswire,BrandPointServices

11

RestaurantTechnologyTrendsDrivingOperational

Efficiency

AICustomerPersonalization

AIenablestailoredmenus,

targetedpromotions,and

predictiveanalyticstoboost

engagementandloyalty.

Additionally,operatorsare

implementingAIintheirdrive-thru

lanes,reducinglabor

45%ofrestaurantsareinvesting

inAI-drivensolutionssuchas

personalizedrecommendations,

loyaltysystems,andpredictive

analyticstoenhancecustomer

experience

AutomationandRobotics

Roboticsystemsstreamlinefood

preparationandcooking,

reducinglaborwhileimproving

speedandconsistency

Robotickitchensystemscan

reducelaborcostsbyupto

50%

DigitalOrderingand

Delivery

Mobileappsandself-servicekioskscreatefrictionlessordering,

improveloyaltysystems,andbettercustomeranalytics

40%ofrestaurantbrands

identifyfirst-partydigital

orderingasthetopavenue

forrevenuegrowthin2025,

shiftingawayfromthird-

partyplatforms

IoTandSmartOperations

Instoreconnecteddevicesprovide

real-timevisibilityintoinventory,

equipment,andinstore

experiencesleadingtooperational

efficiency

Adoptingpredictive

maintenanceviaIoTsensorshas

cutequipmentdefectsbyas

muchas87%,lowering

downtimeandrepairexpenses

12

NotableRestaurantTechnologyTransactions

hasbeenacquiredby

hasbeenacquiredby

hasbeenacquiredby

hasbeenacquiredby

hasbeenacquiredby

Oct.2025

Dec.2025

Sep.2025

Sep.2025

Sep.2025

hasbeenacquiredby

hasbeenacquiredby

hasbeenacquiredby

hasbeenacquiredby

hasbeenacquiredby

Jun.2025

Jun.2025

Jan.2025

Jan.2025

May.2025

13

Source:S&PGlobalMarketIntelligence,Company’spressreleasesandwebsites,BOFA

(1)M&Atransactionsrepresentthemajoritysaleofmulti-unitconceptsannouncedthroughNovember30,2025

(2)IncludesS&PGlobalMarket–coveredNorthAmericancompaniesthatfiledforbankruptcybetweenJanuary1,2025,andNovember30,2025

RestaurantDealmakingLandscapein2025

M&AActivityDealCounts

oThedealenvironmentremainsflat;however,industryM&Aactivityisexpectedtostrengthenin2026,contingentoneasingcapitalcosts

512023Deals

552024Deals

3420251Deals

452022Deals

20

18

17

18

13

12

12

10

9

10

8

8

9

7

7

7

1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q

2022202320242025

110

Consumer

Discretionary

U.S.CorporateBankruptcyFilingsbyTopSectors(2025)2

84

46

32

26

19

16

IndustrialsHealthcareConsumerStaplesITFinancialsRealEstate

HistoricalBuyerTrendsFurtherCementedin2025

oStrategicbuyershaveremaineddominantoverthepastfiveyearsandthroughout2025astheprimarybuyertypeinrestaurantM&A

oM&Aactivityforlimited-servicerestaurantshasalsobeengreaterthanforfull-servicerestaurantsin2025

BuyerType1

2025

39%

5yr.avg.

25%

5yr.avg.

75%

202561%

StrategicFinancialSponsorConceptCategory1

2025

47%

yr.avg.

56%

5

5yr.avg.44%

2025

53%

Full-ServiceRestaurantLimited-ServiceRestaurant

14

Source:Companywebsites,pressreleases,Mergermarket,Vegconomist,OysterLink,RestaurantBusinessOnline,NRN,NYPost,USAToday,FranchiseTimes,TheStreet,RestaurantDive,FSRMagazine,Reuters,Forbes,RestFinance,GlobeNewsWire,RestFinance,Bloomberg,FitchRatings

Note:Bankruptcydatesindicatefilingdates.M&Atransactionfiguresreflectdataattimeoftransaction

2025HasSeenaBifurcatedM&AMarket

BankruptciesContinuetoAffecttheSector

PremiumTradesPropUpM&A

UKFranchisee

68unitsOct.2025

10unitsDec.2025

45unitsDec.2025

16unitsSep.2025

24unitsOct.2025

50unitsMay2025

13unitsMay2025

16unitsOct.2025

15unitsApr.2025

80unitsMar.2025

305unitsMar.2025

61unitsMar.2025

39unitsDec.2024

13unitsNov.2024

164unitsNov.2024

18unitsOct.2024

oAssetswithstrongtoplinegrowthandmarginprofilesstillcommandpremiummultiples

Target

Acquirer/

Investor(s)

Announced

Date

Nov.

2025

Jul.

2025

May

2025

Feb.

2025

Nov.

2024

Sep.

2024

Aug.

2024

UnitCount451,200+1,000+3153,000+23094

Estimated

SWSales

($M)

$165$763$1,000$1,200$4,000$288$180

%

Franchised

0%96%100%95%99%90%66%

Source:CapitalIQ,RestaurantDive,NationalRestaurantAssociation

15

(1)TheearlierIPO,TwinPeaksinJanuary2025,wasaspin-offfromFatBrandsandisnotpartoftheanalysis

SelectSignsofanIPOMarketRe-Openingin2025

InvestorInterestinScaledConsumerGrowthConceptsisRe-Emerging

oBlackRockCoffeecompletedthefirstrestaurantIPOof20251,raising$338.2million(includingover-allotment)atanimpliedmarketcapitalizationof

approximately$1.0billion.ThepriorIPOinthecoffeespacewasDutchBros,whoseshareshavegrownby~182%sinceitsIPO,despiteaperiodoflimitedactivityin2024

oInvestorappetiteremainsrobustwithCAVAup~155%sinceitsJune2023IPO,andDutchBrosup~182%since2021,despiteoverallIPOissuanceconstrainedbyuncertaintyregardingarangeofmacroeconomicfactors

oTheNationalRestaurantAssociation’sRestaurantPerformanceIndexstoodat100inOctober2025,up0.3%month-over-month.Restaurantoperatorsanticipategrowthinsales,staffinglevelsandcapitalexpendituresoverthenextsixmonths

oWhilepost-IPOstockperformancehasbeenmixed,recentofferingshighlightdemandforbrandswithcleargrowthalgorithms,stronguniteconomics,consistentSSSgrowth,andprovenleadershipteams.Privateequitysponsors,whohavelargelyremainedonthesidelines,areexpectedtore-engageaseconomic

conditionsstabilize

PublicMarketBackdropforRestaurantIPOs(3YSharePerformance)

350.0%

300.0%

250.0%

200.0%

150.0%

100.0%

50.0%

0.0%

(50.0%)

(100.0%)

125.2%

37.2%

30.0%

(8.3%)

(34.3%)

(78.4%)

Dec-22Mar-23Jun-23Sep-23Dec-23Mar-24Jun-24Sep-24Dec-24Mar-25Jun-25Sep-25Dec-25

CAVAGroupSweetgreenWingstopChipotleMexicanGrillPortillo'sDutchBros

16

Source:Bloomberg,Pitchbook,HamiltonLane,CapstonePartners,KPMG,Preqin

1)SOFRisdefinedastoSecuredOvernightFinancingRate

2)LoanYieldrefersto30-yearmortgagerate

ContinuedProliferationofPrivateCredit

PrivateCreditReturnsForecastedtoExceedPrivateEquity,with~12%NetIRRandStrongMOICThrough2029

PrivateCreditasaContinuedDriverBehindM&AFinancing

oPrivatecredithasoutpacedbank-ledSyndicatedLBOfinancing,representingmorethan80%oftotalfinancing,comparedto65%in2021

CountofLBOsfinancedinBroadlySyndicatedLoansvs.PrivateCreditMarket

PrivateCredit294274247197

156

125

77

28

Syndicated

175

112

47

56

201920202021202220232024

PilingDryPowderinPrivateCreditinNorthAmerica

oDrypowderisatarecordhighowingtoamutedM&Aenvironment,positioningthemarketforstrongdeploymentopportunitiesonceactivityrebounds

NorthAmericanPrivateCreditDryPowder(In$Billions)

266267256264269

nnllllll

201209

175

147

110

2015201620172018201920202021202220232024

IncreasingM&AShareinLeveragedLoanIssuance

oIn1H’25,leveragedloanissuanceforM&AandLBOgrewsignificantlycomparedto1H’24,indicatingashiftfromRefinancingtowarddeal-drivenfinancing

LeveragedLoanIssuancebyPurpose

Other

7%

Other

9%

Recap

11%

Refinancing

61%

Recap

Refinancing48%

9%

M&A

11%

M&A20%

LBO

10%

LBO

1H'24

14%1H’25

TighteningSOFR1-LoanYieldGap

oThespreadbetweenSOFRandLoanYieldhaswidenedoverthepastyeartoanaverageof2.34%,followingthetighteningin2024

SOFRvs.LoanYieldMovement

1

2

SOFR

LoanYield

8.00%

6.00%

4.00%

2.00%

Mar-20

Jun-20

Sep-20

Dec-20

Mar-21

Jun-21

Sep-21

Dec-21

Mar-22

Jun-22

Sep-22

Dec-22

Mar-23

Jun-23

Sep-23

Dec-23

Mar-24

Jun-24

Sep-24

Dec-24

Mar-25

Jun-25

Sep-25

0.00%

RestaurantSector–Near-TermOutlook

Traffic

OPERATINGENVIRONMENT

FoodCosts

Casualdiningtrafficisexpectedtogrowmodestly,supportedbymenuinnovationandperceivedvalue,whilequick-servicerestauranttrafficmayremainunderpressureduetopricesensitivity,reversinglastyear’strade-downtrend

Foodcostsareprojectedtoincreaseupto3.3%forfood-away-from-home(restaurants),downfrom3.9%in2025,butstillabovehistoricalaverages.

LaborAvailability/Wages

Tariffsandsupplychainvolatilityremainkeyrisks

3PD1MarginImprovements

Laborchallengeshaveeasedsomewhat,buttheimplementationoftheFASTActinCaliforniaandongoingdifferencesbetweentipcreditandnon-tipcreditstatescontinuetochallengeemployers.Meanwhile,minimumwagehikesacrossthecountrycontinuetokeepupwardpressureonwages

Third-partydeliverycontinuestopressuremarginsduetohighcommissionfees.Operatorsareshiftingtowardfirst-partydeliveryplatformsandloyalty-drivendigitalstrategiestoregainprofitability

ConstructionActivity

Restaurantconstructionwillremainsluggish,withnonresidentialspendingprojectedtogrow~2%overalland~3.9%forcommercialsectorsin2026.

Highinterestrates,tariffs,andlaborshortageswillkeepexpansioncautious,favoringsmaller,cost-efficientprototypes

DigitizationSupplyChain

AnnualtechnologybudgetsforQSRchainsrangefrom7-10%ofrevenue,focusedonmobileordering,loyaltyprograms,andautomationtoimprovecustomerexperienceandreducelaborcosts

Tariffsandglobaluncertaintycontinuetopressurerestaurantsandfoodproducers,makingcostforecastingunpredictableandaddingcomplexitytosupplychainmanagement

M&A/CAPITALMARKETS

M&AActivity

CreditAvailability

SponsorM&AInterest

CreditPricing

PublicEquities

1)3PDdefinedasthird-partydelivery

Dealactivityisexpectedtoreboundstronglyin2026,withprivateequityandstrategicbuyerstargetingbothhigh-performingbrandsanddistressedassets

Privateequityinterestremainsstrong,withfinancialsponsorsexpectedtodriveplatformdealstargetingfranchisesystemsandscalableconcepts.

Activitywillfocusonbothhigh-performingbrandsanddistressedassets,ascapitaldeploymentrebounds

Creditconditionsforrestaurantsin2026areexpectedtostabilizebutremaintight,asmonetarypolicygraduallyshiftsfromrestrictivetoneutralamidmoderatinginflation

Creditpricingwillremainelevatedearlyin2026,reflectingahigher-for-longerrateenvironment,buteaselaterintheyearasinflationmoderatesandcentralbanksbeginashallowrate-cutcycle.2–3cutsareexpectedin2026,withspreadstighteningmodestlyinH2despitelingeringvolatility

17

Publicrestaurantequitiesfaceamixedoutlookamidfragmentedmarkets,favoringvalue-drivenandtech-enabledbrands;IPOactivitycouldriseforconceptswithstronguniteconomics

Source:Mergermarketandpressreleases

18

Note:Datesrepresenttransactionannouncementdates

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