mckinsey -战略最大的盲点：竞争优势的侵蚀 Strategys biggest blind spot Erosion of competitive advantage

February2026

Mckunsey

Quarterly

Strategy&CorporateFinancePractice

Strategy’sbiggestblindspot:Erosionof

competitiveadvantage

Misperceptionsaboutthereachanddurabilityofcompetitiveadvantagearehurtingmanycompanies’profits.Fiverulescanhelporganizationsmaximizetheiredgeoverpeers.

byAndyWest,LauraLaBerge,andMattBanholzer

Doyouknowwhatyourcompetitiveadvantageis?Areyousure?

Competitiveadvantageisthemostcriticalyetmisunderstoodfacetofstrategy.It’smorethanacompany’sstrengths—it’sthereasoncustomerschooseitsofferingsoveritspeers’orwhyitisabletodeliverhigherreturnsthanitspeersthroughcapitalefficiency,pricepremiums,orlowercosts.Competitiveadvantagecomprisesuniqueoperatingmodelsandhard-to-replicateassetssuchasintellectualpropertyandcustomeraccessthatenableacompanytobuildsuperiorvalueovertime.

Thatfoundationisshakyformanybusinessestoday,ouranalysisshows.Toidentifyshiftsin

competitiveadvantage,welookedforchangesinmarketpositionusingametricwecallthe“

shufflerate

”—anindustry-levelmarkerthatmeasuresthespeedofchangeinthepositionsofmarketleadersandlaggards.1Wefoundthattheshuffleratehasacceleratedformorethan60

percentofindustriesinthepastdecade,withan11percentincreaseinmedianrates(Exhibit1).

Thispatternsuggeststhatthedefiningelementsofcompetitiveadvantageareinflux,the

degreeofdifferentiationbetweenmarketplayersisnarrowing(causingmorefrequentpositionalchanges),orboth.

Theresultisanincreasingerosionofcompetitiveadvantageforsomecompaniesandacriticalopportunitytocapturegreatermarketshareforothers.Businessesinasectorwitha

deceleratingshuffleratemayfindthemselvesstuckinlaggingpositionsastheindustry’stop

performersdeepencompetitivemoatsaroundtheirleadership.Conversely,thoseinanindustrywithanacceleratingshuffleratecouldfindopportunitiestoattractcustomerspreviouslylockedinbytheircompetitors.

Yetdespitetheimportanceofactingontheseshifts,

recentresearch

2showsthatmost

companiesaren’tmonitoringhowtheirindustrypositionsandcompetitiveadvantagesmaybe

changing(Exhibit2).Despitethis,mostrespondentsreportbeingconfidentthatthey

understandwhatdrivescustomerandinvestorchoice—aconfidencethatmaybemisplacedaschangeaccelerates.Theresultisatroublingreality:Whilethemajorityofrespondentsrecognizethattheiradvantageisnotdurable,theirorganizationsarenotmonitoringsignalsthatwould

alertthemtochangesinthecompetitivelandscape.

Thedynamicserodingincumbents’competitiveadvantagesinsomeindustriesillustratewhytheshufflerateisaccelerating.Forexample,inentertainment,streamingserviceshavematured,in-theaterviewinghassufferedapotentiallypermanentdecline,3andcreator-drivencontenton

video-streamingplatformsiscompetingwithtraditionalmediacompanies.ThisrealignmenthasbeenaccompaniedbysignificantM&Aactivity,includingNetflix’sintended$83billion

acquisitionofWarnerBros.DiscoveryandParamount’smergerwithSkydance.Thefootwear

industryhaslikewiseseensubstantialchange.Challengerbrandshaverapidlygainedmarket

sharefromincumbents,anddistributionhasshiftedfromwholesale-dominatedtodirect-to-

consumermodels,requiringsignificantsupplychainrestructuringandchangingthecompetitiveadvantageneededtowin.

1Shufflerateusesmarketcapasaproxyformarketleadership.

2McKinseyGlobalSurveyof1,257executivesandmanagers—including1,002seniorexecutives—acrossindustriesandgeographies.TheonlinesurveywasinthefieldfromOctober27–November17,2025.

3ColinDixon,“2023movietheaterattendanceimproves;mayneverreachpre-COVIDlevels,”nScreenMedia,March18,2024.

Strategy’sbiggestblindspot:Erosionofcompetitiveadvantage2

Strategy’sbiggestblindspot:Erosionofcompetitiveadvantage3

Exhibit1

Theshufflerateindicateshowthestabilityofcompanies'competitiveadvantagevariesbyindustry.

5-yearshufflerateanditsrateofchangecomparedwithprior5-yearperiod,byindustry

50

Acceleratingshuffle

40

30

20

10

changein

shufflerates,

2019-24rate

0

comparedwith

2014-19rate,

percentage

points

-20

-30

-40

Deceleratingshuffle

10120304050

Lowershufflerate,2019-24,%bHigher

'Andnonalcoholicbeverages.

2Realestateinvestmenttrusts.

Mckinsey&company

Whileunderstandingthestabilityoftheorganization’scompetitiveadvantageiscritical,soishavinga

sharedviewofwhatthatadvantageis.Whenbusinessleadershavedifferentassumptionsabouttheir

organization’sadvantage,aligningonwhattoinvestinandinwhichmarketsischallenging.Andsince

competitiveadvantageiscontextspecific,itcanbehardtorecognizeandassess.Anadditional

complicationisthatanorganization’scompetitiveadvantageisdependentonthecapabilitiesofits

competitors,andthoseplayersconstantlychange—bothinwhotheyareandhowtheychoosetocompete.

Exhibit2

Strategy’sbiggestblindspot:Erosionofcompetitiveadvantage4

companiesarenotcloselytrackingtheircompetitiveadvantagedespiteevidencethatitiseroding.

shareofrespondents,%

knowledgeofcurrentcompetitiveadvantagesituation

somewhattohighlyconfidenttheyknow

whatdrivescustomerchoiceintheirmarkets

Monitorcompetitorswithofferingsthey

directlycompeteagainstbymarket

34

validatedriversofcustomerchoice

bymarketusingexternaldata

30

Trackdriversofsharegainand

profitabilityatthemarketlevel

Havefullalignmentacrosstheorganization

onwhattheircompetitiveadvantageis

planstoaddresscompetitiveadvantageinthefuture

Believetheirbusinessmodelwillrequireamoderatetocompleteoverhauloverthenext5years

79

confidenttheycanrecognizenewgrowthareaswheretheyhaveacompetitiveadvantage

37

source:MckinseyGlobalsurveyoninnovationandcompetitiveadvantage,1,257participants,oct27-Nov17,2025

Mckinsey&company

Notsurprisingly,organizationsthattracktheircompetitiveadvantageineachoftheirmarkets

anduseittoguidetheirgrowthstrategiesandinvestmentchoicesoutperformtheirpeers.Inoursurvey,4respondentsfromcompaniesinthetopquintileofannualgrowthandEBITintheir

sectorsweremorethan2.5timesaslikelyasotherstosaythattheirorganizationsarefully

alignedonwhattheircompetitiveadvantagesareandaretwo-thirdsmorelikelytobetrackingthatadvantageatthemarketlevel.

Fiverulesofmaximizingyourcompetitiveadvantage

Withcompetitiveadvantageunderpressure,businessleadersneedtoactivelyprotecttheiredgeoverpeers.Theycandosobyfollowingfiverules:

4McKinseyGlobalSurveyof1,257executivesandmanagers—including1,002seniorexecutives—acrossindustriesandgeographies.TheonlinesurveywasinthefieldfromOctober27–November17,2025.

Strategy’sbiggestblindspot:Erosionofcompetitiveadvantage5

—Developagranularviewofcompetitiveadvantage.

—Tailortheadvantagetoeachmarket.

—Don’toverinvestinareasthatwon’timprovecompetitiveposition.

—Boostthereturnoncompetitiveadvantagebyembeddingitintostrategicdecision-making.

—Trackmetricsthatcansignalchangesinthecompetitivelandscape.

Developagranularviewofyourcompetitiveadvantage

Companieswithnumerousbusinesslinesandmarketsoftenstruggletopinpointtheir

competitiveadvantagebecauseitmaydifferattheenterprise,product,andmarketlevels.Forexample,financialresources,corporatebrand,andsomepartnershipsareenterprise-level

advantages,whileR&Dandcustomerrelationshipscanbespecifictoproductcategoriesorevenindividualmarkets.

Whenweanalyzedthecompetitiveadvantages5oftheworld’s5,000largestcompaniesby

revenue,6wefoundawidevarianceintheuniqueattributesthatconstitutedtheiradvantages,

evenwithinthesameindustries.Thoseattributesrangedfrombroadelements,suchasastrongglobalpresence,tospecificcapabilitiesandassets,suchasmineralrightsinaparticularcountry.Weclassifiedthoseattributesintosevencategories:brandandexternalreputation,scaleor

financialstrength,intellectualpropertyorinnovativeofferings,go-to-marketcapabilities,

partnershipsoraccesstoscarceresources,operationalexcellence,andtalentorculture.Ouranalysisfoundthatthesourceofadvantageformostorganizationsisacomplexandhighly

specificcombinationofseveralcategoriesratherthanasingleelement.

Toeffectivelymanageitssourcesofcompetitiveadvantage,anorganizationneedsagranular

understandingofhowtheattributescomprisingitscompetitiveadvantagecombineto

differentiateitinthemarket.Considerscale:Inandofitself,itisn’talwaysacompetitive

advantage,astheso-calledconglomeratediscountdemonstrates.Yetscaleofdataand

platformreachhasenableddigitalplatformssuchasTencenttosuccessfullyentermultiple

industries.Similarly,scaleinR&Dcanbeacompetitiveadvantageifitfuelsmultiplebusiness

units,butusuallynotiftheR&Dexpertiseonlyappliestoasingleproductcategory.Innovationsincancertreatments,forexample,typicallydon’tporttootherpharmaceuticallinesandthus

don’tgivetheoverallorganizationacompetitiveadvantageoutsideofoncology(alikelyreasonwhymanypharmaceuticalcompaniesaresimplifyingtheirportfolios).

Leadingcompaniesknowwhichattributesaffectcustomerchoice,investinstrengtheningthem,embedthemintheirmostimportantmarkets,andmakethemtransferablesotheycanapply

thematscale.Theseassetsandcapabilitiescanexistatmanylevelsoftheorganizationandareoftencombinationsofattributesthatarehardtoreplicate.Companiesthatoperateacrossmanymarketsmayneedtovarytheircompetitiverecipeacrossthosemarkets.

5Definedastheabilitytouseuniqueattributestocompeteinamarketplaceforsuperior,durablereturns.

6TheassessmentreliedonexpertinterviewsandgenAIanalysisofpubliclyavailabledata,customercomments,andindustryanalyses.

Strategy’sbiggestblindspot:Erosionofcompetitiveadvantage6

Alackofagranularviewofcompetitiveadvantageoftenleadstodisagreementsamong

leadershipteamsandboardsonhowandwherethecompanyshouldcompete.Creatingthat

sharedviewprovidesacommonfactbasefortheorganization’sdecisionsandhelpsitmaximizereturnsonitsinvestments.

Tailoryourcompetitiveadvantagetoeachmarket

Oncebusinessleadershaveadetailedunderstandingoftheirorganization’sadvantage,theyneedtoapplythatunderstandingtohowtheypositiontheirofferingsineachmarket.

Competitiveadvantageoccursattheintersectionofoffering,geography,andcustomer—in

otherwords,whatyou’reselling,whereyou’reselling,andtowhomyou’reselling.Assector

barrierserode,acompany’sbiggestcompetitorsmaycomefromoutsideitsindustry.Those

competitors,inturn,maysetthebarthatanyattributemustmeettoconstituteacompetitiveadvantage.Inoursurvey,morethan40percentofrespondentscitedisruptivetrendsandnewentrantscomingfromoutsidetheirindustriesasthegreatestthreatstotheircompetitive

advantage.Suchdisruptionshavealonghistory,fromsmartphonessubsumingthetraditionalmarketsofcameraandfilmmanufacturerstosoftwarefirmstransformingtheeconomicsof

industriesasdiverseashospitality,transportation,andmusic.

Largecompaniesthatoperateacrossnumerousgeographiesfaceadditionalcomplicationsduetohighvarianceinwhatmattersforwinninginagivenmarket.Considertheevolutionofquick-servicemeals.InCanadaandtheUnitedStates,fooddeliveryappschangedthedynamicsandshiftedvaluepoolsinthefast-foodandcasual-diningindustry;premademealsandmealkits

havefurthererodedtraditionalplayers’marketshare.Yettheseinnovationshaven’ttakenoffinLatinAmerica,China,andothermarkets.

Asthevarianceinwhatdeterminescustomerchoiceincreases,theattributesthatcreatea

competitiveadvantagealsochange.Consequently,businessleadersneedtobevigilantin

ensuringthatacompetitiveadvantagetheirorganizationmayhaveenjoyedfordecadescanbesustainedasthemarketevolves.Forexample,thelocationofbranchesandATMsusedtobeasignificantcompetitiveadvantageforretailbanks,oftendeterminingcustomers’choiceof

institution,butonlinebankinghasreducedthevalueofthosephysicalassets.

Don’toverinvestinwhatdoesn’tmatter

Inmostscenarios,theultimateauthorityonacompany’scompetitiveadvantageisitscustomers(andpeoplewhocouldbeitscustomersbutinsteadbuyfromcompetitors).Yetorganizations

sometimesfallintothetrapofbelievingthattheircapabilitiesorofferingsaresuperiortotheircompetitors’whencustomersdon’tsee—ordon’tvalue—thedifference.Onehomeappliancemanufacturer,forexample,developedaproductwithsophisticatedbutcomplexfeatures,onlytodiscoverthatwhatcustomersvaluedmostwaseaseofuseaslongastheproduct’sfeatureswere“goodenough.”Thelesson:Focusonthefewfactorsthatdeterminecustomers’choices(andonwhichinvestorsplacevalue)anddon’toverinvestinelementsthatwon’tdifferentiate

offeringsincustomers’eyes.

Strategy’sbiggestblindspot:Erosionofcompetitiveadvantage7

Asimilarconceptappliestoaddressingcompetition.Organizationssometimesfocustoomuch

onreplicatingacompetitor’ssourceofadvantage—effortsthatrarelysucceed.Instead,they

shouldaimtobegoodenoughinthecompetitor’scapabilitywhilereinforcingtheirownsourcesofadvantage.Why?Ourresearchhasyieldedanimportantinsightaboutthedifferencebetweenwinningandnotlosing.Whenwelookedattheactionsofpairsofcompetitors,wefoundagood-enoughthreshold—themarket’sexpectationsforbasicvalue.Fallingbelowthisthresholdduetoacriticalfailure(areputationalcrisis,forexample,oralaborshortagethathampersproduction)cannegatethebenefitsofinvestmentinexpandingcompetitiveadvantage.Conversely,

investingmoreinelementsthatdon’tdifferentiatetheofferingsincustomers’eyeswillnotyieldreturns.Thekeyistostayinthemiddle,exceptforthefewareasthatmatter.

Talentcanillustratetheconceptofwinningversusnotlosingonacapability.Inindustrieswhereexpertiseistheoffering(suchasprofessionalservices),wherecriticalskillsarescarce,orwheretop-decilecompaniesfaroutperformtherest(suchasnichesofhigh-techresearchwhere

havingthemost-skilledworkersdisproportionatelyinfluencessuccess),talentisanessentialcompetitiveadvantageforbeingamarketwinner.

Notlosingontalentisquitedifferent.There’salargemiddlegroundbetweennotrecruitingtheverybesttalent(becauseitwon’tpaydividendstodoso)andinvestingenoughinpeopleand

culturetooperateattheminimumexpectedthresholdfortheindustry,thendifferentiatingonotherattributessuchaseaseofdoingbusiness,reliability,orcost.Thedistinctionbetweenhowtowinandhowtonotloseholdstrueacrossmanyattributesofacompany’soverallcompetitiveadvantage,includinginnovation,operations,andbrand.

Boostyourreturnoncompetitiveadvantage

Agenuinecompetitiveadvantageissustainableovertime.Aneventortrendcansuddenly

createagrowthopportunity—asthepandemicdidforvideoconferencingapps—butacompanyneedsacompetitiveadvantagetomaintainamarketleadasnewentrantsemergeand

competitionevolves.Successfulbusinessesregeneratetheiradvantagesovertimeandapplythembroadly,especiallytothemostattractivemarketopportunities.Forexample,investmentsincustomerrelationshipmanagement(CRM)systemstargetedatcapturingandfeeding

customerinsightstoR&Doracultureofinternalcollaborationcanexpandanorganization’scapabilitiesascompetitionevolves.

Sourcesofadvantagethataretransferableacrossmarketsprovideanadditionalstrategicedge.Havingadeeptechnicalcapabilityinonetypeofmanufacturingisquitedifferentfromhavingacultureofengineeringandoperationsexcellence.Theformerhelpstheorganizationwin

narrowly,whilethelattercanenableittoexpandintogrowingmarkets.Investinginrenewableandtransferableformsofadvantagecreatesthehighestreturnsandisoftenwhatdetermineslong-termvalue.

Youcan’tmanagewhatyoucan’tsee

Sincetherisk,complexity,anddynamismaroundacompany’scompetitiveadvantagevaryby

market,businessleadersneedtomonitortheircompetitiveadvantageatthemarketlevel.It’sacomplextask,butthreemarkerscansignalthepotentialerosionofadvantageoropportunitiestoexpandintonewspaces.

Strategy’sbiggestblindspot:Erosionofcompetitiveadvantage8

Findmorecontentlikethisonthe

MckinseyInsightsAPP

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—Tracktheshufflerateatthemarketlevel.Significantchangeinanindustry’sshuffle

rate—eitheranincreaseintherateitselforinthemarketshareseparatingleadersand

laggards—oftensignalstheriskoferosionofacompany’scompetitiveadvantage.Itcanalsoindicateshiftsinthefactorsthatdeterminecustomers’purchasedecisions,whichmay

presentopportunitiestomoveintonewgrowthareas.

—Followthemoney.Shiftsinstart-up,patent,and

investmentflow

activity,amongother

indicators,cansignalthearrivalofnewcompetitors(oftenwithverydifferentcost

structures),capacity(whichcanhurtindustryeconomics),valuepropositions,customer

needs,ortechnologicalbreakthroughs.Thesefactorscanreshapeindustrydynamicsandpotentiallyundermineanincumbent’sadvantage.

—Watchacquisitionsbyplayersoutsidetheindustry.Topperformersaremorethan50

percentmorelikelythanpeerstomonitornoncompetitors’acquisitionsofcompanieswhoseofferingstheycompetewith,oursurveyshows.Suchdealscanbeearlysignsofasea

changeinanindustry.

Asidefromtrackingmarket-r