【英文】MSCI：第四季度全球转型融资报告

Transition

FinanceTracker

Aquarterlyreportonfinancingtheshifttoalow-carboneconomy

Fourthquarter2025

Linda-ElingLeeTanguySéné

KatieTowey

RumiMahmoodUmarAshfaq

TransitionFinanceTracker–Q42025

Sections

Foreword

Whatcanphysicalhazarddatatellusaboutthe2026WorldCup?

Highlights

Howhaveclimatefundsperformed?

Howdotechgiants’energy

-

relatedemissionscompare?

Keyterms

Howmuchlow

-

carbonenergyrelativetofossil

-

fuelenergyarebondinvestorsfinancing?

Acknowledgements

Howmucharecompaniesinvestingincarboncredits?

Whatpercentageofcompanieshavesetclimatetargets?

Whatpercentageofcompaniesdisclosetheiremissions?

Arecompaniesontracktomeetglobalclimategoals?

Howdocompanies’emissionstrajectoriescomparewiththoseoftheirhomecountries?

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TransitionFinanceTracker-Q42025

Foreword

The2026WorldCupwillmarknearlysixweeksofnonstopsoccerthissummer,crisscrossing

16sceniclocationsacrosstheU.S.,CanadaandMexico.Thebreadthofgeographiesalsooffersareminderofthemultiplicityofphysical

hazardsthatcommunitiesacrossNorthAmericanowface.

Asthisanalysisshows,eachofthe16cities

thatwillhostthegamesconfrontsamixof

near-andlong-termphysicalhazards.We’verankedthemforeachofthestadiums,notto

forecasttheweatherbuttoshowlocation-

specificexposuretosuchhazards.Thedata

won’ttellyouhowtodressforthematch(if

you’refortunateenoughtogettickets),butit— andmuchmoregranulardatalikeit—couldhelpyouanalyzethephysicalriskstoyour

investmentifyouwereinthemarkettofinanceastadiumorotherinfrastructure.

Thereportalsotakesasnapshotoftwoothertopicsoninvestors’radar.Oneiswonky:howshouldtechnologygiantsaccountfortheir

energypurchases—acarbon-accounting

questionthatistimelygivencommunity

concernsoverpower-hungrydatacenters.Theotheriswonkier:calculatingaratiotoilluminatehowmuchlow-carbonversusfossil-fuel

energyisfinancedthroughcorporatebondportfolios.

Alongtheway,welookatsomeofthelatest

dataontheinvestmentperformanceofclimatefunds(upin2025)andthesettingofcorporateclimatetargets(alsoup).Wehighlightdemandforcarboncredits(upaswell)bycompanies

thatareusingthemtobothmeet

decarbonizationcommitmentsand,

increasingly,satisfycomplianceobligations.

Takentogether,thedataechoestheoutlookbyourcolleagues,whonotein

theirlatestannual

look

atsustainabilityandclimatetrendsthatfortherighttechnologies,decliningcostsare

reinforcingcompetitivenessanddrivingthetransitionbeyondanysinglepolicycycle.

Inshort,thereremainsmorethanoneenergytransition,andcapitalcontinuestobeguidedbyopportunityandrisk,creatingmomentumoftheirown.

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Linda-ElingLeeFoundingDirector,

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TransitionFinanceTracker-Q42025

Highlights

1.AT&TStadiumandSoFiStadium,Levi’sStadiumandHardRockStadiumtopthelistof2026WorldCup

locationsbasedontheirexposuretoheatwaves,

rain-inducedfloodingandlightning,respectively,

accordingtoouranalysisusing

MSCIGeoSpatial

AssetIntelligence

.LincolnFinancialField,which

openedin2003(hostingasoccermatch

betweenManchesterUnitedandFCBarcelona),hasthehighestexposureamongWorldCuplocationstosubsidence,along-termriskforthatsite.

2.Listedclimate-themedfundshadamedianreturnof

12.2%lastyear,upfrom5.2%in2024.Assets

inthesefundsreachedUSD652billionasofDec.

31,2025,up16.4%fromayearearlier.

3.Theuseofemissionscreditsobtainedviapower-purchaseagreementshasenabledtechgiants

suchasAmazon,Alphabet,MicrosoftandMetatomatchagainsttheoverwhelmingshareoftheir

reportedemissionsfrompurchasedenergy(Scope

2).Thatcouldchange:ApendingproposalbytheGreenhouseGasProtocol(GGP)wouldtieScope2reportingmoretightlytothetimesandlocations

wherecompanies’energyconsumptionoccurs.

4.Investorsincorporatebondscanhaveawiderangeofexposuretofinancinglow-

carbonenergyrelativetofossil-fuelenergy.A

hypotheticalportfoliotrackinganindexdesignedtodecarbonizeinlinewiththegoalsoftheParis

AgreementcanfinanceUSD2.57oflow-carbon

energyforeverydollaroffossil-fuelenergyit

supports,whileonethattracksanemerging-marketbondindexfinancesUSD0.03foreverydollar.

5.Nearlyone-fifth(19%)oflistedcompanieshada

climatetargetvalidatedbytheScienceBased

Targetsinitiative(SBTi)asofDec.31,2025,upfrom14%ayearearlier.Almostathird

(32%)ofcompanieshavesetanet-zeroemissionstarget,thoughnotnecessarilyonevalidatedbytheSBTi,roughlyunchangedfromayearearlier.

6.Anestimated79%oflistedcompanies

disclosedtheirScope1and/orScope2emissionsasofDec.31,2024,upfrom76%ayearearlier.A

majority(56%)ofcompaniesreportedatleastsomeoftheirScope3emissions,upfrom51%overthe

sameperiod.

7.Companiesretiredcarboncreditstotaling202

milliontonnesofCO2-equivalent(MtCO2e)

emissionsin2025,thefourthconsecutiveyearofgrowthandthehighesttotalsince

2021.Shellretired10.4MtCO2eofcarboncredits

lastyear,themostofanycompanygloballyandtheoilmajor’sthirdconsecutiveyearleadingglobal

carbon-creditretirements.

8.Theemissionstrajectoriesoftheworld’slistedcompaniesimplywarmingof3°C(5.4°F)abovepreindustriallevelsthiscentury,basedontheiraggregateemissions,sector-specific

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carbonbudgetsandclimatetargetsasofDec.31,2025.

Physicalrisk&nature

TransitionFinanceTracker-Q42025

Physicalexposurebystadiumlocation(normalizedbyhazard,1-10)

Whatcanphysicalhazard

Heatwaves

#ofheatwavedaysperyear

Rain-inducedflooding

Floodht.inmeters*

Lightning

Ann.#offlashespersq.km.

Subsidence

Likelihoodofground-surfacesinking

datatellusaboutthe2026WorldCup?

•The2026WorldCupkicksoffJune11at16stadiumsacross

5most-exposedstadiumlocations

AT&TStadiumDallas

10

Levi'sStadium

SanFrancisco

10

HardRockStadiumMiami

8.6

LincolnFinancialFieldPhiladelphia

10

SoFiStadium

LosAngeles

10

HardRockStadiumMiami

8.7

NRGStadiumHouston

8.4

HardRockStadiumMiami

8

HardRockStadiumMiami

9.1

ArrowheadStadiumKansasCity

5.8

ArrowheadStadiumKansasCity

8.2

NRGStadiumHouston

8

ArrowheadStadiumKansasCity

8.8

Mercedes-BenzStadiumAtlanta

5.3

EstadioAkronGuadalajara

8.1

SoFiStadium

LosAngeles

8

Levi'sStadium

SanFrancisco

8.5

MetLifeStadiumNewJersey

4.5

AztecaStadiumMexicoCity

7.7

Levi'sStadium

SanFrancisco

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theU.S.,CanadaandMexico,showcasingthediversityoflocalsoccerculturesandnaturalbeautyacrossthecontinent.Eachvenue’slocationalsohighlightssomethingelse:vast

differencesintheirexposuretophysicalhazards.

•Thescorecardsrankstadiumsslatedtohostthegamesby

currentexposuretothreeacutehazards:heatwaves,rain-

inducedfloodingandlightning,using

MSCIGeoSpatialAsset

Intelligence

,whichinvestorsusetoassesslocation-specific

5least-exposedstadiumlocations

1

1

4.2

4.8

5

1

1

1

2.33.8

3.5

5.1

5.1

5.8

6.1

3

5

5

5

6

BCPlaceVancouver

AztecaStadiumMexicoCity

BMOFieldToronto

LumenFieldSeattle

MetLifeStadiumNewJersey

AT&TStadiumDallas

BMOFieldToronto

LumenFieldSeattle

GilletteStadiumBoston

EstadioAkronGuadalajara

GilletteStadiumBoston

BMOFieldToronto

MetLifeStadiumNewJersey

LincolnFinancialFieldPhiladelphia

EstadioBBVAMonterrey

GilletteStadiumBoston

ArrowheadStadiumKansasCity

BCPlaceVancouver

Mercedes-BenzStadiumAtlanta

MetLifeStadiumNewJersey

physicalriskglobally.1(Hazardintensityvaluesarenormalizedtoeachhazardtypeandexpressedonascaleof1to10,with1indicatingverylowexposureand10veryhighexposure.)Wealsoshowexposuretosubsidence,whichestimatesthelong-termpotentialforground-surfacesinkingand,likeallchronichazards,isslowtomanifest.

•Forinvestors,location-specificexposuresofassetsto

physicalriskarebecomingapieceofcriticalmarket

intelligencethatisespeciallyrelevanttovaluinginfrastructureandotherrealassets.Ifyou’refinancingastadium,youmaywanttoquantifythevalueofinvestinginheat-resistant

*Returnperiodof100years

Source:MSCISustainability&ClimateResearch,usingMSCIGeoSpatialAssetIntelligence–PhysicalRisk-HazardExposuredataasofDec.31,2025.MSCISustainability&ClimateproductsandservicesareprovidedbyMSCISolutionsLLCintheUnitedStatesandMSCISolutions(UK)LimitedintheUnited

Kingdomandcertainotherrelatedentities.

materials,forexample,orknowthelikelihoodthatthefacilitycouldsinkovertime.

Mscl1.MSCI’sphysical-riskmoduleevaluatesassetsexposureto29hazards:11chronic

Institutehazardsand18acutehazardsatmorethanthreemillionassetlocationsglobally.

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TransitionFinanceTracker-Q42025

Howhaveclimatefunds

performed?

•Investorbackingfortechnologiessuchasalternativeenergy,energyefficiency,batteriesandsmartgridshasheldup,

evenasgovernmentshavepulledbacksupportfromclimatepolicies.

•Listedclimate-themedfundshadamedianreturnof12.2%lastyear,upfrom5.2%in2024.Assetsinlistedclimate-themed

fundsreachedUSD652billionasofDec.31,2025,up16.4%fromayearearlier.

•Inadditiontothelisteduniverse,therewereabout227climate-namedprivate-capitalfundsglobally—includingprivateequity,privatecredit,infrastructureandventurecapital—with

combinedcapitalizationofaboutUSD143billion,asofSept.

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30,2025.

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Capitalinclimatefunds(USDbillion)

Publiclytradedclimatefunds(assetsundermanagement)Privateclimatefunds(cumulativecapitalraised)

525

30

125

25

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

652

560

450

400

200

60

20182019202020212022202320242025

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

143

131

100

62

44

30

2018201920202021202220232024Q32025

Publiclytradedclimate(distributionofcalendaryearreturns)

66%

12%

9%

9%

5%

-50%

2021

(n=552)

2022

(n=753)

2020

(n=440)

2023

(n=1105)

2025

(n=1520)

100%

0%

-100%

233%152%113%

72%

48%

13%

-16%

-14%

-37%

-50%

-63%

-73%

2024

(n=1480)

RangeofreturnsMedian

Source:MSCISustainability&ClimateResearchandMSCIPrivateCapitalUniverse.PublicfundsdataasofDec.31,2025.PrivatefundsdataasofSept.30,2025.Publicfundsincludeequity,fixedincomeandmulti-assetETFsandmutualfunds.Privatefundsincludeprivateequity,privatecredit,andprivaterealassetsfunds.

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Financialflows

TransitionFinanceTracker–Q42025

Howdotechgiants’energy-related

emissionscompare?

•Companieshavebecomeusedtothepracticeofreportingloweremissionsoftheirfossil-fuel-basedelectricityiftheypurchaserenewableenergysuchasthrough

renewable-energycertificatesorpower-purchaseagreementstiedtosolar,windorhydropowergeneration.

•Thatpracticemightchange,however,withpotentiallysignificantimplicationsfor

companies’reportedcarbonfootprints.ApendingproposalfromtheGGP,the

leadingsetterofcarbon-accountingstandards,wouldrequireScope2emissions

reportingtoalignmorecloselywiththephysicallocationandtimingofelectricity

generation.1Theaim:toensurethatreportedreductionsinScope2emissionsmoreaccuratelyreflectactualdeclinesingrid-levelemissions.

•TheproposedchangewouldhaveanimpactonScope2reportingfortechnologycompaniesthatoperatepower-hungrydatacenters.Asthechartindicates,

contractualrenewable-energyinstrumentssuchaspower-purchaseagreementscurrentlyaccountformostofthedifferencebetweenlocation-andmarket-basedScope2emissionsreportedbyAmazon,Alphabet,MicrosoftandMeta,asofDec.

31,2024.

1.“GHGProtocolOpensPublicConsultationsonScope2andElectricitySectorConsequential

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Accounting,”GGP,Oct.20,2025.TheconsultationiscurrentlyslatedtocloseonJan.31,2026.

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Location-versusmarket-basedcalculationsofScope2emissions(millionmetrictonsCO2e)

2024

2023

2022

2024

2023

2022

05101520

●Scope2(location-based)

Source:MSCISustainability&ClimateResearch,basedoncompany-reporteddataasofDec.31,2024.

Alphabet

CMeta

amazon

Scope2(market-based)

2024

2023

2022

2024

2023

2022

Microsoft

Transition

TransitionFinanceTracker-Q42025

Howmuchlow-carbonenergyrelative

tofossil-fuelenergyarebondinvestorsfinancing?

•Banksinrecentyearshavestartedtopublishan“energysupplyratio,”whichsome

shareholdershavedemandedtomeasurehowmuchlow-carbonenergysupplyeachbankfinancesforeverydollaroffossil-fuelenergysupplyitsupports.1Hereweadapttheconcepttoanalyzeinvestorfinancingofcorporateborrowingthroughbond

purchases.

•Thetablecomparesfinancedexposuretolow-carbon-energyrevenueandfossil-fuel-energyrevenueinsixhypotheticalfixed-incomeportfolios,whichwerepresenthereusingMSCIfixed-incomeindexes.Wedividetheaggregaterevenuethatbondissuersinthehypotheticalportfoliosgeneratefromlow-carbonbusinessesbytheiraggregaterevenuesgeneratedfromfossil-fuelenergybusinesses.Arateof1meansthe

aggregaterevenuesfromlow-carbonbusinessesequalthosefromfossil-fuelenergybusinesses.

•TheportfoliorepresentedbyMSCI’sEmergingMarketsCorporateBondIndexhadthelowestrateatUSD0.03oflow-carbonenergyfinanceperdollaroffossil-fuelenergyfinance,whiletheonerepresentedbyMSCI’sUSDInvestmentGradeParisAligned

CorporateBondIndexhadthehighest,atUSD2.57oflow-carbonenergyfinanceperdollaroffossil-fuelenergyfinance,asofDec.31,2025.

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1.“NewYorkCityRetirementSystems2025ShareholderInitiatives–PostseasonReport,”NewYorkCityComptroller,Dec.8,2025.Seealso,“EnergySupplyFinancingRatioMethodology,”J.P.MorganChase&Co.TheSBTi,anarbiterofcorporateclimatetargets,directsfinancialinstitutionstoassesstheirexposuretocleanenergyrelativetofossil-fuelenergy.See“FinancialInstitutionsNet-ZeroStandard.Version1.0,”SBTi,July2025,p.30.

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Financedexposure(low-carbonrevenuedividedbyfossil-fuelrevenue)

Portfolio

Low-carbonfinance

rate(USD)

MSCIUSDParisAlignedCorporateBondIndex

2.57

MSCIEUParisAlignedCorporateBondIndex

1.29

MSCIEURInvestmentGradeCorporateBondindex

0.22

MSCIUSDInvestmentGradeCorporateBondIndex

0.11

MSCICADInvestmentGradeCorporateBondIndex

0.10

MSCIEmergingMarketsCorporateBondIndex

0.03

Source:MSCISustainability&ClimateResearch,dataasofDec.31,2025.Low-carbonrevenuereferstorevenuefromactivitiesinthelow-carbonenergysector,includinggeneration,storage,transmission,anddistributioninfrastructure.Fossil-fuelrevenuereferstorevenuefrom

activitiesintheexploration,extraction,production,transportation,distribution,refiningorretailingofoil,gasandcoal.Forcompletedefinitions,see“FinancialInstitutionsNet-ZeroStandard.Version1.0,”SBTi,July2025,esp.p.30andTable2therein.

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Financialflows

TransitionFinanceTracker-Q42025

Howmucharecompaniesinvestingincarboncredits?

•Companiesretired202MtCO2eofcarboncreditsin2025,thefourthconsecutive

yearofgrowthandthehighesttotalsince2021.(Retiringcreditsremovesthemfromcirculationonceemissionsreductionsareclaimed,indicatingdemand.)

•Retirementswereeithervoluntaryaspartofclimatestrategiesortransferredfor

complianceobligations.Q42025

retirementstotaled54MtCO2e,up32%fromQ3butdown18%year-over-year.

•Nearly90%ofQ4retirementscamefromemissions-reductionprojectsratherthanremovalprojects.Amongremovalcredits,thevastmajoritywerenature-based;

engineeredremovalsremainedunder1%oftotalretirements.

•Shell,ColombianrefinerTerpel,and

Brazil’sBancoBVretiredthemost

voluntarycarboncreditsinQ4.Shell’sQ4retirementsbroughtits2025totalto10.4MtCO2e,themostofanycompany,

markingtheoilmajor’sthirdconsecutiveyearleadingglobalcarbon-credit

retirements.

Amountofcarboncreditretirementsdisclosedquarterly,bytype(MtCO2e)Largestcreditretirees,Q42025(tCO2e)

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

0

10

Q1

Q2Q3

2021

Q4

Q1

Q2Q3

2022

Q4

Q1

Q2Q3

2023

Q4

Q1

Q2Q3

2024

Q4

Q1

Q2Q3

2025

Q4

●Reductioncredits

●Engineeredremovals

●Nature-basedremovals

Source:MSCICarbonMarkets,dataasofDec.31,2025,basedondatafromACR,ART,BioCarbon,CAR,Cercarbono,ClimateForward,CDM(NDCeligiblecreditsonly),GCC,GoldStandard,PlanVivo,PuroEarthandVerra.

shellcterpel

Renewableenergy

REDD+

Energyefficiency

Fuelswitch

Naturerestoration

JurisdictionalREDD+

Carbonengineering

Non-CO2gases

05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,500

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TransitionFinanceTracker-Q42025

Whatpercentageof

companieshavesetclimatetargets?

•Nearlyone-fifth(19%)oflistedcompanieshadaclimatetargetvalidatedbytheSBTiasofDec.31,2025,upfrom14%ayearearlier.ManyinvestorsviewSBTi-approvedtargetsasamarkofcredibilitybecausetheinitiative

assesseswhethertargetsalignwithclimatescience.

•Theambitionofcorporateclimatetargetsmatters,assuchtargetshelpinvestorsgaugethescaleofemissions

reductionscompaniesmayachieve.Boththeambitionandrigorofcorporatetargetsvarywidely.

•Nearlyathird(32%)ofcompanieshavesetanet-zero

emissionstarget,thoughnotnecessarilyonevalidatedbytheSBTi,roughlyunchangedfromayearearlier.Overall,60%oflistedcompanieshavepublishedsomeformof

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climatecommitment,alsolittlechangedyearoveryear.

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Shareoflistedcompanieswithdisclosedclimatetargetsbytargettype

32%

26%

19%

14%

9%

7%

0%

5%

5%

1%

1%

0%

0%

Dec

2015

Dec

2017

Dec

2018

Dec

2016

Dec

2019

Dec

2021

Dec

2022

Dec

2023

Dec

2020

Dec

2025

Percentofcompanieswithclimatetargets

Percentofcompanieswith

companywidenet-zerotargets

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

59%60%

56%49%

40%

31%

28%

23%

18%

16%

12%

9%

4%2%

0%

0%

Dec

2024

PercentofcompanieswithclimatetargetsapprovedbytheScienceBasedTargetsinitiative

Source:MSCISustainability&ClimateResearch,dataasofDec.31,2025.Notethattotalsarecumulative.TheshareofcorporateclimatetargetsreportedherereflectstherelevantshareofallcompaniesintheMSCIACWIIMI.

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Targets

Targets

TransitionFinanceTracker-Q42025

Whatpercentageof

companiesdisclosetheir

emissions?

•Disclosureofcorporategreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsenablesinvestorstocomparecompaniesacrosssectors,trackprogresstowardclimatecommitmentsandassessfinanciallyrelevantrisksintheirportfoliosandloanbooks.

•Anestimated79%oflistedcompaniesdisclosedtheir

Scope1and/orScope2emissionsasofDec.31,2024,upfrom76%ayearearlier.Weestimateemissionsfor2024becausecompaniesvaryinthedatesoftheirsustainabilitydisclosuresandadditionalqualitychecksareongoing.

•Amajority(56%)ofcompaniesreportedatleastsomeoftheirScope3emissions,upfrom51%overthesame

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period.Becausecompaniesoftenstruggletoquantifytheirvalue-chainemissions,reportingratesforScope3remaincomparativelylow.

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Emissionsdisclosurebylistedcompanies(%)

57%

51%

47%41%

35%

30%28%

18%16%

SomecategoriesofScope3

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

79%

76%

72%

66%

56%

50%

41%

36%

30%

23%

20%

2015201620172018201920202021202220232024

(estimated)

Scope1+2●

Source:MSCISustainability&ClimateResearch,estimateddataasofDec.31,2024.

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TransitionFinanceTracker–Q42025

Arecompaniesontracktomeetglobalclimategoals?

•Theemissionstrajectoriesoftheworld’slistedcompaniesimplywarmingof3°C(5.4°F)abovepreindustriallevelsthiscentury,basedontheir

aggregateemissions,sector-specificcarbonbudgetsandclimatetargetsasofDec.31,2025.

•Twelvepercentoflistedcompaniesalignedwithprojectedwarmingof

1.5°C(2.7°F)orless,whileanadditional26%alignedwithwarming

between1.5°Cand2°C(3.6°F).Almosttwo-thirds(62%)oflisted

companiesareonanemissionstrajectorythatwouldbreachthe2°C

threshold,including26%ofcompanieswhosetrajectorieswouldexceed3.2°C(5.8°F).

•Ourextrapolationrelieson

MSCI’sImpliedTemperatureRise

(ITR),a

forward-lookingclimate-impactmetricthatinstitutionalinvestorsusetoassessthealignmentofportfolioswithglobalclimategoals.

Whyourestimateofcompanies’impliedwarmingincreased

Notethatourlatestestimateofwarmingimpliedbylistedcompanies’aggregateemissionstrajectoriesisthree-tenthsofadegreehigherthanourestimateforthethreemonthsendedSept.30,2025.TheincreasereflectsanenhancementtoMSCI’sImpliedTemperatureRise(ITR)modelintroducedinOctober,ratherthanachangeincompanies’underlyingemissionstrajectories.Theupdateremovesacaponhowmuchcompaniescanexceedtheircarbon

budgets(measuredas"absoluteovershoot"ingigatonsofCO2e).Previously,the

methodologycappedthisovershootatalevelequivalentto10。Cofwarming.Thiscap

preventedahandfulofhigh-emittingcompaniesfromdominatingportfolio-leveltemperaturescores,butitalsocreatedvolatilityinthemetric.Byremovingthecap,wereducethis

volatility,thoughlargeemittersnowhavegreaterinfluenceonaggregatedITRscores.

Transition

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Projectedtemperaturealignmentoftheworld’slistedcompanies(ImpliedTemperatureRisein°C)

7%

Companiesbytemperatureband(%)

>3.2oC

<=1.5oC

12%>1.5oC<=2oC

26%

26%

36%

>2oC<=3.2oC

1%

0%

0.51.52.53.54.55.56.57.58.59.5

●>2°C<=3.2°C

Source:MSCISustainabilityandClimateResearch,dataasofDec.31,2025.Notindexweighted.Thedatasetusedinthisestimatecomprisesroughly95%ofACWIIMIconstituents,asroughly5%ofconstituentslackdatathatwould

allowustocomputetherelevantmeasures.

Listedcompanies’median(3°C)

●<=1.5°C

●>3.2°C

>1.5°C<=2°C

4%

6%

3%

2%

5%

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1.ListedcompaniesrepresentedbytheMSCIACWIInvestableMarketIndex(IMI),whichcaptureslarge-,mid-andsmall-caplistedcompaniesacross23developed-marketand27emerging-marketcountries.With8,225constituents,theindexcoversapproximately99%oftheglobalequityinvestmentopportunityset,asofDec.31,2025.

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Transition

TransitionFinanceTracker–Q42025

Howdocompanies’emissions

trajectoriescomparewiththoseof

theirhomecountries?

•Countries’climatetrajectoriesreflectdifferencesindecarbonizationtargets,historicalemissions,domesticpoliciesandcarbonbudgetconstraints.WeestimatethewarmingimpliedbythosetrajectoriesusingMSCI’sSovereignImpliedTemperatureRisemodel,whichconsidersGHGemissionsproducedwithinacountry’sborders(Scope1).1

•Themodelappliesafair-shareapproach,followingrecommendationsfromthe

InstitutionalInvestorsGrouponClimateChange.Thisapproachallocatesproportionallylargercarbonbudgetstoless-developedcountriestobalancedecarbonizationneedswitheconomicdevelopment.2

•ThetablecomparesthewarmingtrajectoriesofG20-membercountrieswiththoseofthecompaniesdomiciledinthem.Companiesdomiciledinmanyemergingmarkets,includingSaudiArabia,IndonesiaandIndia,showhigherestimatedwarmingthantheirrespectivecountries.Thisoccursbecauseweestimatecompanyemissionsacrossallthreescopes—includingScope3emissionsfromdownstreamactivitieslikeproductuse—manyofwhichentertheatmosphereoutsidethecompany'shomecountry.

1.Significantly,themodeldoesnotconsideremissionsfromtheproductionofimportedenergy(Scope2)oremissionsfromimportedgoodsorservices(Scope3).

2.See“SovereignBondsandCountryPathways,”InstitutionalInvestorsGrouponClimateChange,April2024.Forasummaryofliteratureonthetopicoffair-sharebudgets,see“Fairshare,”ClimateActionTracker,availableat

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ProjectedtemperaturealignmentofG20countriesversuslisted

companiesbasedineachcountry(ImpliedTemperatureRisein。C)

ITRofdomiciledlistedcompanies

China

3.8

4.4

Australia

3.4

3.4

Canada

3.3

2.8

SaudiArabia

3.0

10.0

U.S.

2.9

2.8

Russia

2.6

Japan

2.3

2.4

Turkey

2.2

3.7

Italy

2.2

1.8

Brazil

2.1

3.7

Argentina

2.1

Indonesia

2.0

7.9

Mexico

2.0

2.1

Germany

2.0

2.0

India

1.9

4.9

France

1.9

2.3

SouthAfrica

1.8

3.9

U.K.

1.8

2.5

SouthKorea

1.7

2.9

●>2°C<=3.2°C●

Source:MSCISustainability&ClimateResearch,dataasofDec.31,2025.TheITRofcompanieslistedinRussiaandArgentinaisnotshownbecausethesecuritiesofcompanieslistedtherearenotincludedintheMSCIACWIIMI.

●>1.5°C<=2°C

SovereignITR

>3.2°C

▻

TransitionFinanceTracker-Q42025

MSC

Institute

▻

▻▻

14

Keyterms

Carboncredit:Auni