中观行业比较月报：轮动中把握景气线索关注涨价与科技

正文目录一、 回顾：A股开门红周期科技共舞 3二、 景气跟踪：周期&半导体新能源涨价，出口有支撑而内需仍偏弱 41.1上游周期：有色引领商品涨价，石油/化工品接力，钢铁建材表现平淡 4中游制造：新能源产业链材料涨价，出口支撑部分行业量的景气 6TMT：存储引领半导体涨价周期，AI软硬件需求延续向好 7下游消费：商品偏弱而服务消费韧性，生猪/白酒价格出现底部企稳 8公用交运&建筑地产&金融：地产销售、价格维持负增，A股成交热度显著提升 9三、 估值比较：有色&TMT估值明显扩张，目前已处历史较高分位 92.1估值变动：上游周期、TMT行业估值扩张明显，金融/部分消费行业估值收缩 92.1行业水位：有色/制造/TMT多处于历史较高分位，消费/金融行业多处于中枢附近及以下 四、 展望：看好春季行情延续，轮动中把握景气线索 五、 风险提示............................................................................................................................A一、回顾：A科技共舞月，12.3%、8.7%、3126%靠前（%-%阶段一：1A4AI1（，宽基F图表A股主要指数走势 1.14调融资保证金比例1.14调融资保证金比例25/12/3126/01/0125/12/3126/01/0126/01/0226/01/0326/01/0426/01/0526/01/0626/01/0726/01/0826/01/0926/01/1026/01/1126/01/1226/01/1326/01/1426/01/1526/01/1626/01/1726/01/1826/01/1926/01/2026/01/2126/01/2226/01/2326/01/2426/01/2526/01/2626/01/2726/01/2826/01/2926/01/30

上证指数 创业板指 科创50 中证沪深300 中证红利图表申万一级行涨跌幅周期科技共上涨2520252050-522.61月涨跌幅（%，2026/1/1-2026/1/30）17.916.313.312.77.97.16.96.86.46.35.95.95.95.14.34.14.03.23.10.50.40.30.1-0.1-0.4-0.5-1.0-6.6有传石建色媒油筑

基电综煤础子合炭化工

钢计通铁算信机

装设饰备

纺社轻房国织会工地防服服制产军饰务造工

电公医力用药设事生备业物

零护售理

食农交品林通饮牧运料渔输

金电融器二、景气跟踪：周期&半导体&新能源涨价，出口有支撑而内需仍偏弱上游周期：有色引领商品涨价，石油化工品接力，钢铁建材表现平淡1①12.4%、、年99%的高分位；此外，能源金属的碳酸锂、镍、钴，以及稀土价格均有明显上涨。②石油汽油分别上涨13%，但仍处于近两年（③煤炭钢铁15.9%年30%-60%15%图表上游周期：色继续领商涨价，油涨接力2026-01-302025-122025-112025-102025-09大类一级行业二级行业 指标 环比上月同比上年年初以来近两年分位水平 近两年趋势 最新值、近五个月月底值2026-01-302025-122025-112025-102025-09布伦特原油:期货价（美元/桶）

-8.713.0%

13.9% 37.8% 69.3 60.9 62.4 64.8 66.0石油石化大宗周期

贵金属

汽油期货价（美分/加仑） 12.1%-6.0%13.2% 22.6% 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9NYMEX天然气:期货价（美元/百万英热） 9.6% 42.9%18.1% 94.5% 4.4 3.7 4.9 4.1 3.32025-12-312025-112025-102025-092025-08美国原油库存（百万桶） -0.7% 3.2% / 91.3% 833.0 838.5 830.6 814.8 822.22026-01-302025-122025-112025-102025-09伦敦金现（美元/盎司） 12.4%74.7%13.0% 98.8% 4880.0 4318.3 4218.6 4002.7 979.0伦敦银现（美元/盎司） 11.9%169.5%19.1% 97.5% 85.3 71.6 56.4 48.7 46.72026-01-302025-122025-112025-102025-09铜期货价（万元/吨） 11.2%43.4% 9.8% 99.9% 10.8 9.9 8.7 8.7 8.312.9%25.0%11.3% 99.7% 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.11.8%-23.7%0.8% 11.5% 2789.0 2766.0 2718.0 2810.0 2883.0锡期货价（万元/吨） 36.0%77.8%35.2% 99.5% 44.1 32.6 30.2 28.4 27.9有色金属

工业金属 2026-01-292025-122025-112025-102025-09LME铜库存（万吨）17.1%-31.7%20.4%55.2%17.514.515.913.414.2COMEX铜库存（万吨）17.8%489.1%15.5%99.9%57.549.841.935.632.4LME铝库存（万吨）-3.6%-15.7%-2.7%30.5%49.650.953.855.551.1COMEX铝库存（万吨）-33.2%-82.5%-33.2%1.0%0.40.60.60.70.8 2026-01-302025-122025-112025-102025-09碳酸锂期货价（万元/吨） 27.7%93.9%27.6% 97.9% 15.4 12.1 9.6 8.2 7.3能源金属工业硅:期货价（万元/吨） 0.3%-17.8%0.7% 29.8% 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.912.1 12.24.9 3.5 2026-01-302025-122025-112025-102025-09小金属稀土价格指数20.1%53.1%19.9%100.0%260.2217.0210.4204.2216.9锑:现货价（万元/吨）1.3% 16.3% 64.5%16.416.217.515.917.5图表上游周期：工品价普遍涨，石化工幅明显大类一级行业二级行业指标环比上月同比上年年初以来近两年分位水平近两年趋势最新值、近五个月月底值2026-01-302025-122025-112025-102025-094.8%-5.0%4.8%37.4%4120.03930.03865.03869.03967.014.2%-13.0%13.7%34.7%8050.07080.06950.07050.07600.0丙烯:山东地区市场价（元/吨）11.8%-5.5%12.0%20.0%6400.05715.06025.05900.06475.0丁二烯:现货价（元/吨）28.0%-16.0%28.7%48.3%10750.08350.07050.07700.09300.0纯苯:现货价（元/吨）17.4%-19.0%17.6%36.9%6200.05270.05290.05270.05910.0石油化工对二甲苯:现货价（元/吨）2.7%3.4%2.6%68.9%7230.07048.06544.06480.06503.0乙二醇:现货价（元/吨）3.5%-19.2%4.1%7.4%3830.03680.03880.04110.04290.0环氧丙烷:现货价（元/吨）2.1%4.1%4.4%52.4%8310.07960.08240.07790.07805.0丙烯酸:现货价（元/吨）3.6%-26.8%3.6%8.1%5750.05550.05700.06000.06400.0丙烯酸丁酯:现货价（元/吨）13.0%-22.5%13.0%18.9%7400.06550.06550.06900.07800.0甲醇(港口):现货价（元/吨）3.6%-13.6%3.2%19.1%2280.02210.02120.02160.02260.0醋酸:现货价（元/吨）0.4%-8.9%0.4%35.5%2550.02540.02360.02320.02460.0煤化工醋酸乙酯:现货价（元/吨）-0.2%-5.2%-0.2%2.3%5340.05350.05380.05470.05380.0正丁醇:现货价（元/吨）15.3%-6.8%15.3%40.7%6800.05900.05250.05300.06100.0丙烯腈:现货价（元/吨）0.7%-34.6%2.0%4.3%7650.07500.08125.08000.08300.0橡胶天然橡胶(标准胶1#):现货价（元/吨）5.6%-2.7%5.6%73.8%16150.015300.014900.014800.014600.0丁苯橡胶(1502):现货价（元/吨）14.0%-15.0%13.5%44.3%13000.011450.010900.011100.012100.0沥青:华东地区市场价（元/吨）5.8%-15.1%5.8%9.7%3270.03090.03240.03470.03560.0大宗丙酮:现货价（元/吨）14.6%-21.7%14.6%22.8%4700.04100.04200.04150.04400.0周期基础化工苯酚:现货价（元/吨）8.6%-18.7%8.6%11.8%6300.05800.06150.06400.06900.0塑料聚氯乙烯:现货价（元/吨）1.5%-7.4%1.5%8.5%4610.04540.04495.04730.04810.0低密度聚乙烯:现货价（元/吨）8.5%-9.1%8.5%8.4%8950.08250.08730.09225.09550.0甲醛:现货价（元/吨）-1.9%-13.6%-1.9%0.0%1020.01040.01040.01070.01090.0环氧氯丙烷:现货价（元/吨）3.8%36.9%3.8%93.7%12180.011730.011170.011850.012430.0氟化工氢氟酸:华南地区市场价（元/吨）2.6%7.2%2.6%92.5%11900.011600.011600.011450.010500.0二氯甲烷:华南地区市场价（元/吨）1.8%-24.8%1.8%7.5%2800.02750.02750.02750.02900.0尿素(46%):现货价（元/吨）2.6%6.6%2.6%31.7%1775.01730.01680.01625.01660.0液氨:现货价（元/吨）-3.9%-10.1%-3.7%10.4%2230.02315.02350.02205.02240.05.0%165.8%5.3%97.5%4200.03990.03960.03440.02680.0-1.1%13.4%-1.1%94.9%4360.04410.04265.04015.04010.0钾肥:现货价（元/吨）0.6%23.3%0.6%94.5%3280.03260.03250.03215.03235.0含硫复合肥:价格指数2.6%18.2%2.6%98.9%3228.03146.03015.02882.02925.0含氯复合肥:价格指数1.0%11.9%1.0%97.5%2622.02596.02525.02490.02507.0对二甲苯(PX):现货价（元/吨）2.7%3.4%2.6%68.9%7230.07048.06544.06480.06503.0精对苯二甲酸(PTA):现货价（元/吨）3.5%7.1%3.7%69.5%5280.05090.04640.04510.04600.08750.09150.05780.05900.0涤纶长丝:江浙地区市场价（元/吨）8.6%-1.3%8.6%51.2%7550.06950.06950.06700.06850.0腈纶短纤:现货价（元/吨）-1.5%-10.2%-1.5%0.0%13200.013400.013900.013800.013700.0图表上游周期：炭、钢、建品种整仍然弱大类一级行业二级行业指标环比上月同比上年年初以来近两年分位水平近两年趋势最新值、近五个月月底值2026-01-302025-122025-112025-102025-09焦煤:期货价（元/吨）5.9%3.6%5.4%67.4%1175.51115.51064.01295.51146.0焦炭:期货价（元/吨）1.5%-2.0%2.5%50.7%1740.01698.01574.51792.51645.5焦煤:库提价:山西产（元/吨）3.4%23.3%3.4%66.0%1800.01740.01670.01760.01630.0煤炭动力煤:平仓价:秦皇岛（元/吨）3.3%-8.1%2.1%28.7%692.0678.0816.0770.0699.02026-01-302025-122025-112025-102025-09库存量:炼焦煤:国内样本钢厂（万吨）1.4%-4.0%1.4%92.2%814.1802.5798.1796.5979.0库存量:炼焦煤:国内独立焦化厂（万吨）15.6%2.2%15.6%97.0%1036.1896.1857.3905.7888.42026-01-302025-122025-112025-102025-09-0.1%-2.0%0.4%58.4%793.0789.5792.0797.0216.9大宗0.3%-6.6%0.6%34.9%3147.03127.03098.03109.0174920.0周期不锈钢:期货价（元/吨）10.6%8.9%10.1%96.4%14435.013105.012355.012675.012785.0钢铁线材:期货价（元/吨）2.3%-2.9%1.6%51.0%3487.03431.03364.03359.03069.0热轧卷板:期货价（元/吨）0.5%-4.9%0.9%32.0%3302.03274.03293.03315.03274.02026-01-302025-122025-112025-102025-09库存量:国内主要钢材（万吨）4.8%1.7%4.8%20.2%891.0850.5978.31077.31089.0开工率:螺纹钢:主要钢厂（%）-2.6%17.3%-2.6%15.6%37.738.737.443.340.7112025-102025-09水泥市场价（元吨）283.3275.9建筑材料 浮法玻璃:市场价（元/吨）-1.2%-17.9%0.6%2.8%1139.71132.51148.91212.31206.2纯碱:现货价（元/吨）-2.8%-22.6%-0.8%3.3%1215.01225.01250.01210.01240.0混凝土:价格指数-0.1%-15.0%0.0%1.1%90.490.490.591.091.7中游制造：新能源产业链材料涨价，出口支撑部分行业量的景气近一个月，中游制造整体价格平稳，仅新能源产业链材料出现明显涨价，量的层面多数行业得益于出口支撑。具体来看：①新能源：光伏、电池链价格上涨，电池出口有支撑；电网设备迎政策支持。价格方面，光伏、电池产业链已经历了近半电14增长。②微跌1%，同比回落③1④2026-01-302025-122025-112025-102025-09最新值、近五个月月底值环比上月2026-01-302025-122025-112025-102025-09最新值、近五个月月底值环比上月同比上年年初以来近两年分位水平 近两年趋势指标大类一级行业二级行业价格指数:机械设备 -1.0% -0.7% -1.0% 1.0% 101.6 102.6 104.5 105.0 105.4 2025-12-312025-112025-102025-092025-08出口金额:通用机械设备（万美元）15.4%3.4%/95.7%638908.6553576.5476073.5588482.9542994.7机械设备挖掘机械:国内销量（台）5.0%10.9%/78.3%10331.09842.08468.09249.07685.0挖掘机械:出口销量（台）25.3%26.9%/100.0%12764.010185.09628.010609.08838.0重卡:销量-9.3%22.0%/78.3%102701.0113246.0106199.0105583.091619.0工业机器人:产量28.4%26.2%/100.0%90116.070188.057858.076287.063747.02026-01-282025-122025-112025-102025-09光伏级多晶硅:现货价1.8%37.1%1.8%87.6%6.66.56.56.56.5多晶硅片(156mm×156mm):现货价2.0%18.4%2.0%82.8%0.100.100.090.100.10晶硅光伏组件:现货价3.9%8.1%3.9%63.5%0.080.080.070.070.07太阳能电池:现货价19.0%61.3%19.0%97.2%0.050.040.030.030.03光伏 2025-12-312025-112025-102025-092025-08光伏出口金额（亿美元） -4.1%18.2% / 23.1 24.1 22.6 28.0 29.2 2025-11-302025-102025-092025-082025-07国内光伏新增装机容量（万千瓦） 74.7%-11.9% / 73.9% 2202.4 1260.3 966.0 735.3 1104.3中游制造电力设备

国内风电新增装机容量（万千瓦） 40.0%110.0% / 87.0% 1249.3 892.2 324.8 416.9 228.2山东市场:市场价:碳酸二甲酯-10.0%-0.4%-10.0%山东市场:市场价:碳酸二甲酯-10.0%-0.4%-10.0%4.7%3365.03765.0 4190.0 3565.0 3650.0六氟磷酸锂:价格-23.3%120.8%-23.3%85.3%138000.0180000.0180000.0107500.061000.0华南:现货平均价:电解镍(Ni9996)5.7%18.4%5.7%93.0%150350.0142300.0121700.0123600.0124400.0-3.6%36.9%-3.6%95.3%19210.019920.015510.015460.015260.035.3%106.3%35.3%97.1%160410.0118560.093780.080590.073490.0电解液(锰酸锂):市场价17.8%111.2%17.8%93.8%26500.022500.015900.012300.011300.0氢氧化锂(56.5%,国产):市场价43.1%123.6%43.1%97.7%157880.0110360.082140.075840.073570.0三元材料(523):市场价10.3%96.6%10.3%94.7%186.5169.1156.8151.0119.6钴粉(-200目,国产):市场价9.5%249.5%9.5%98.9%575.0525.0512.5497.5332.0四氧化三钴(≥72%,国产):市场价0.7%241.4%0.7%92.9%379.0376.5357.5354.5272.5华南:现货平均价:电解钴(Co99.98)-2.6%165.3%-2.6%93.8%443000.0455000.0400000.0394000.0332000.0电池 2025-12-312025-112025-102025-092025-08.076000.062500.071.071.52025-11-302025-102025-092025-082025-07电网基本建设投资完成额当月（亿元） 74.7%-1.1%/80.0%779.6446.3582.3480.8404.3电网设备新增220千伏及以上变电设备容量（万千伏安196.0%-20.5%/61.9%2507.0847.03513.0192.02122.0全社会用电量:当月值（亿千瓦时） -2.5%6.4%/50.0%8356.08571.08887.010155.010215.0件图表中游制造：分行业的景度得益出口撑件大类一级行业二级行业指标环比上月同比上年年初以来近两年分位水平近两年趋势最新值、近五个月月底值2026-01-312025-122025-112025-102025-09新造船价格指数0.2%-1.2%0.2%52.2%1112.01110.01108.01106.01106.0国防军工2025-12-312025-112025-102025-092025-08出口金额:船舶（亿美元）-13.0%25.0%/63.6%44.651.353.765.954.72025-12-312025-112025-102025-092025-08乘用车:销量（万辆）-6.3%-8.7%/78.3%284.7303.7296.1285.9254.0乘用车乘用车:出口数量（万辆）21.2%72.9%/100.0%85.270.372.065.366.9新能源汽车:销量（万辆）-6.2%7.2%/91.3%171.0182.3171.5160.4139.5新能源汽车:出口数量（万辆）0.0%123.9%/95.7%30.030.025.622.222.4汽车商用车商用车:销量（万辆）8.5%15.3%/91.3%42.539.236.136.831.6商用车:出口数量（万辆）22.6%74.9%/100.0%14.211.610.810.39.4汽车用发动机:销售数量（万台）汽车零部车用发动机:出口数量（万台）-26.9%-9.5%-9.2%0.0%//78.3%73.9%215.538.0294.942.0234.334.0240.335.0204.741.0汽车零配件:出口金额（万美元）8.2%-0.8%/91.3%858109.1793395.3693829.2785756.2846091.0摩托车摩托车:出口数量（万辆）-6.8%16.3%/43.5%357.0383.0391.0437.0437.0TMT软硬件需求延续向好近一个月，TMT板块的量价景气指标均呈向上态势，半导体迎来涨价周期，AI产业继续支撑相关软硬件需求。具体来看：①价格方面，受1月10②受益全球③AI12④12图表TMT：半导体迎涨价周产继续撑相关件需求半导/光块服务器）大类一级行业二级行业指标环比上月同比上年年初以来近两年分位水平近两年趋势最新值、近五个月月底值2026-01-302025-122025-112025-102025-09半导体电子

指数(DRAM内存产业链综合景气指数) 28.3%1198.5%25.8% 100.0% 586350.8466010.8377456.5221117.6114294.3DRAM:DDR3:现货平均价（美元） 30.0%692.6%27.6% 100.0% 37.2 29.1 27.2 15.5 7.7 2026-01-192025-122025-112025-102025-09Flash:现货平均价（美元） 8.3% 71.8% 5.8% 99.2% 7.5 7.1 6.9 6.8 6.2Wafer(512GbTLC):现货平均价（美元） 60.6%538.3%18.3% 100.0% 15.4 13.1 9.1 4.8 3.1 2025-11-302025-102025-092025-082025-07全球销售额:半导体:当月值（十亿美元） 3.5% 29.7% / 95.7% 75.3 72.7 69.5 64.9 62.1中国销售额:半导体:当月值（十亿美元） 3.9% 22.9% / 95.7% 20.2 19.5 18.7 17.6 17.12025-12-312025-112025-102025-092025-08中国:智能手机:出货量（万部）-20.5%-29.4%/47.8%2286.5中国:智能手机:出货量（万部）-20.5%-29.4%/47.8%2286.52875.13135.62561.72164.4中国:上市新机型数量:智能手机（款）-12.5%50.0%/34.8%21.024.026.029.049.02025-11-302025-102025-092025-082025-07出口金额:光模块（亿美元）27.3%0.9%/82.6%4.33.94.33.73.7通信块（千克）0%/95.7%317170.0287744.0305011.0295017.0287451.0光模块（美元/千1%/52.2%1358.81338.31416.71247.31289.82025-12-312025-112025-102025-092025-08TMT

消费电子销售量:智能设备（万件） -22.0%-4.9% / 8.7% 554.1 710.6 792.8 840.0 926.2销售量:品牌台机/销售量:品牌台机/一体机/服务器（万件）16.1%24.9%/82.6%37.232.027.029.331.437.03381.4 2025-12-312025-112025-102025-092025-08软件业务收入（亿元）2.6%4.7%/100.0%15054.014673.013978.014717.013163.02025-12-312025-112025-102025-092025-08传媒 国产游戏版号发放数量（个）-19.1%18.0%/78.3%144.0178.0159.0145.0166.0进口游戏版号发放数量（个）-50.0%-76.9%/0.0%3.06.07.011.07.0 游戏陀 下游消费：商品偏弱而服务消费韧性，生猪白酒价格出现底部企稳近一个月，下游消费景气度仍偏弱，结构分化明显：商品偏弱服务韧性，出口提供支撑，生猪/白酒价格底部企稳。具体地：①面，1增长。②月家递业务量指标的同环比均维持增长，绝对规模亦处于近两年较高水平。③12大类图表下游消费：猪、白价格现底部稳，品消费弱但出有支，服务费表韧性大类一级 二指标环比上月同比上年年初以来近两年分位水平 近两年趋势最新值、近五个月月底值2026-01-302025-122025-112025-102025-09市场价:生猪(外三元)（元）7.0%-17.7%5.7%15.9%13.012.311.512.412.6农林牧渔平均批发价:猪肉（元）5.0%-20.3%5.8%14.5%18.617.617.817.819.3平均批发价:白条鸡（元）-3.0%-0.3%-2.9%13.3%17.317.817.617.517.52026-01-302025-122025-112025-102025-09批发参考价:飞天茅台（元）5.8%/6.1%11.9%16501555157016401760食品饮料纺织服饰家用电器下游消费轻工制造

2026-01-222025-122025-112025-102025-09平均价:生鲜乳（元/公斤） 0.3% -2.6% 0.3% 20.4% 3.04 3.03 3.02 3.02 3.042026-01-272025-122025-112025-102025-09到厂价:纱线（元/吨） 0.8% 0.6% 0.8% 53.9% 20120.0 19970.019760.019670.0 19720.0羽绒价格:白鹅绒(90%)（元/千克） 0.4% -4.2% 0.4% 13.3% 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.1 4.5生丝:价格（元/吨） 1.0% 1.2% 1.0% 23.6% 462600.0457800.0464400.0465900.0 466500.0千足金饰品:价格（元/克） 13.2% 90.6% 17.4% 99.6% 1565.0 1333.0 1268.0 1120.0 1062.02025-12-312025-112025-102025-092025-08商品零售额:家电和音像器材类（亿元） -2.9% -14.3% / 52.6% 971.1 1000.3 891.1 904.3 861.0出口金额:家用电器（亿美元） 4.1% -6.9% / 21.7% 78.1 75.1 74.1 77.3 84.3具类（亿元）/94.7%具类（亿元）/94.7%207.3195.4179.0175.6168.5零件（亿美元/87.0%64.554.147.146.846.9430.1限上商品零售额:文化办公用品类（亿元）-3.4% 12.5% / 84.2% 506.5 524.1 515.7 485.1出口金额:文化产品（亿美元） 7.5% -5.8% / 39.1% 108.4 100.8 98.1 111.3 121.4 2026-01-302025-122025-112025-102025-09出厂平均价:瓦楞纸:玖龙纸业（元/吨）-8.2%-4.8%-8.2%43.8%3340.03640.03940.03690.03540.02025-12-312025-112025-102025-092025-08社零总额:餐饮收入（亿元）-5.3%3.4%/89.5%5737.56057.05199.34508.6168.5社会服务浦东国际机场:旅客吞吐量（万人次）-0.6%8.0%/60.9%692.8697.2752.0698.646.9电影票房收入（亿元）4.5%58.0%/69.6%37.135.526.126.6430.12025-12-312025-112025-102025-092025-08海南离岛免税销售额（亿元）43.5%17.1%/87.0%34.223.824.317.3168.5社会零售规上快递业务量（亿件）0.8%2.3%/100.0%182.1180.6176.0168.846.97.5430.12025-12-312025-112025-102025-092025-08中国BD交易数量（笔）22.2%44.7%/100.0%55.045.029.032.034.0医药生物中国BD交易总金额（亿美元）386.4%98.1%/87.0%169.334.8207.299.945.3中国BD交易单笔金额（亿美元）298.0%36.9%/60.9%3.10.87.13.11.3 医药魔 公用交运&建筑地产&金融：地产销售、价格维持负增，A股成交热度显著提升近一个月，航运业因地缘扰动表现分化，房地产销售和价格维持负增，非银观察到A股成交热度显著提升。具体来看：①80%②130月建筑业③1月以来A至3.04图表10公用建筑&地产金融：地产销售、价格维持负增，A股成交热度显著提升大类一级行业二级行业指标环比上月同比上年年初以来近两年分位水平近两年趋势最新值、近五个月月底值2025-11-302025-102025-092025-082025-07

全社会用电量（亿千瓦时） -2.5% 6.5% / 8355.5 8571.6 8886.310154.310225.6 2025-12-312025-112025-102025-092025-08发电量（亿千瓦时）10.2%1.5%/78.9%8586.27792.28002.18261.89362.72026-01-302025-122025-112025-102025-09原油运输指数(BDTI)29.0%96.1%29.0%100.0%1702.01319.01452.01436.01128.0交通运输波罗的海干散货指数(BDI)14.4%200.4%14.4%89.3%2148.01877.02560.01966.02134.0INE集运指数(欧线):期货结算价（元/吨）-4.2%-15.1%-6.1%24.3%1716.31828.51629.31881.91122.1公用2026-01-312025-122025-112025-102025-09建筑建筑业PMI（%）-7.6%-1.0%/0.0%48.852.849.649.11128.0地产建筑装饰建筑业PMI:新订单（%）-15.4%-10.3%/8.7%40.147.446.145.92134.0金融开工率:石油沥青装置（%）-7.7%-1.3%/21.7%26.228.427.833.21122.12026-01-302025-122025-112025-102025-0930城商品房成交面积:日均（万平方米）-52.5%-21.6%/4.3%17.436.626.123.924.5

2026-01-192025-122025-112025-102025-09二手房出售挂牌价指数:日均-0.8% -0.8%0.0%146.4147.7148.8150.1151.52025-12-312025-112025-102025-092025-08保费收入:保险公司（亿元）27.5% /21.7%3565.42796.22686.94147.05913.5非银金融非银金融 2026-01-312025-122025-112025-102025-092.16 2.42三、估值比较：有色&TMT估值明显扩张，目前已处历史较高分位2.1估值变动：上游周期、TMT行业估值扩张明显，金融/部分消费行业估值收缩从月度估值动来看上游期行业值普遍张1月 全A指数PE值值较12月底升、4.5%。行业层面，有金属传媒业的值扩最为著，色的PB