中国必选消费品行业1月成本报告：涨价现实弱于预期成本仍处低位

图3浮法玻璃市场价（元/吨）图4玻璃期货价（元/图3浮法玻璃市场价（元/吨）图4玻璃期货价（元/吨）2,600.02,400.02,200.02,000.01,800.01,600.01,400.01,200.01,000.0，HTI，HTI22-0122-0422-0722-1023-0123-0423-0723-1024-0124-0424-0724-1025-0125-0425-0725-1026-0122-0122-0422-0722-1023-0123-0423-0723-1024-0124-0424-0724-1025-0125-0425-0725-1026-0122-0122-0422-0722-1023-0123-0423-0723-1024-0124-0424-0724-1025-0125-0425-0725-1026-0122-0122-0422-0722-1023-0123-0423-0723-1024-0124-0424-0724-1025-0125-0425-0725-1026-01啤酒129110.720.08%；啤酒成本期货指数为118.37，较上周提升2.2%。玻璃现货/期货价格月度环比-1.2%/+3.4%，同比-17.9%/-20.2%。浮法玻璃冷修节奏有所推进，前期推迟产线逐步进入冷修周期，行业日熔量环比小幅回落，但整体仍处相对高位，供应端收缩力度偏温和。需求端受低温天气、春节临近影响，深加工企业订单天数环比下滑，库存由降转增、延续累库趋势。高库存叠加供需失衡，持续压制行业基本面，现货价格整体保持平稳。铝材现货/期货价格月度环比+0.8%/+13.4%，同比+13.0%/+26.4%。特高压建设加速带动铝线缆需求增长，新能源汽车、光伏领域需求稳步提升，有效抵消建筑型材需求疲软的影响，供需紧平衡格局延续。大麦价格环比小幅上涨0.9%，深加工、饲料企业为应对春节假期提前补库，阶段性采购量增加，推动局部市场成交回暖，支撑价格小幅上行。图1HTI啤酒成本现货指数图2HTI啤酒成本期货指数160.0150.0140.0130.0120.0110.0100.0180.0图1HTI啤酒成本现货指数图2HTI啤酒成本期货指数160.0150.0140.0130.0120.0110.0100.0180.0170.0160.0150.0140.0130.0120.0110.0100.0，HTI，HTI图7大豆期货收盘价（元/吨）图图7大豆期货收盘价（元/吨）图8白砂糖期货收盘价（元/吨）7,000.06,500.06,000.05,500.05,000.04,500.04,000.03,500.07,500.07,000.06,500.06,000.05,500.05,000.0，HTI，HTI22-0122-0422-0722-1023-0123-0423-0723-1024-0124-0424-0724-1025-0125-0425-0725-1026-0122-0122-0422-0722-1023-0123-0423-0723-1024-0124-0424-0724-1025-0125-0425-0725-1026-0122-0122-0422-0722-1023-0123-0423-0723-1024-0124-0424-0724-1025-0125-0425-0725-1026-0122-0122-0422-0722-1023-0123-0423-0723-1024-0124-0424-0724-1025-0125-0425-0725-1026-0112997.90.41%；调味品成本期101.812.23%。大豆现货/期货价格月度环比-2.4%/+6.7%，同比+6.4%/+10.2%，国际供应充裕，1月到港量维持高位，巴西大豆为核心进口来源，国内港口及油厂进口大豆库存仍处绝对高位，下游饲料企业补库意愿偏弱，整体供应宽松。白糖现货/期货价格月度环比-1.0%/+0.1%，同比-14.5%/-9.6%。国产方面，广西等主产区处于新榨季压榨高峰期，产能释放加快，本榨季产量同比增加，供应压力持续攀升。进口方面，1月食糖进口量同比维持高位，进口糖持续补充市场供给，进一步放大宽松格局。下游需求暂无明显提振，节前备货进入尾声，需求端表现平淡，行业整体承压。图5HTI调味品成本现货指数图6HTI调味品成本期货指数135.0130.0125.0120.0115.0110.0105.0100.095.090.0160.0图5HTI调味品成本现货指数图6HTI调味品成本期货指数135.0130.0125.0120.0115.0110.0105.0100.095.090.0160.0150.0140.0130.0120.0110.0100.090.0，HTI，HTI图11全国玉米平均价（元/公斤）图图11全国玉米平均价（元/公斤）图12全国豆粕平均价（元/公斤）2.02.8，HTI，HTI22-0122-0422-0722-1023-0123-0423-0723-1024-0124-0424-0724-1025-0125-0425-0725-1026-0122-0122-0422-0722-1023-0123-0423-0723-1024-0124-0424-0724-1025-0125-0425-0725-1026-0122-0122-0422-0722-1023-0123-0423-0723-1024-0124-0424-0724-1025-0125-0425-0725-1026-0122-0122-0422-0722-1023-0123-0423-0723-1024-0124-0424-0724-1025-0125-0425-0725-1026-0112998.180.09%；乳制品成本期货指数为90.48，较上周提升0.88%。生鲜乳价格上升至3.04元/公斤，同比降低2.9%8%，供给收缩信号更明确，但主产区产量环比微增1.2%，供需宽松、价格承压不变。饲料方面，玉米现货价格月度环比/同比+0.4%/+7.5%。东北售粮进度仍快，月末惜售升温，政策性粮源投放、进口玉米到港小幅增加，供应充足；饲料企业日耗环比降3%，深加工库存环比升6%，采购放缓，涨价动力不足。豆粕现货价格月度环比/同比+0.9%/+0.3%。进口大豆到港增加，油厂开工维持高位，豆粕库存同比大增，下游仅刚需补库，备货量增幅微弱，价格上行空间有限。图9HTI乳制品成本现货指数图10HTI乳制品成本期货指数130.0125.0120.0115.0110.0105.0100.095.090.0120.0115.0图9HTI乳制品成本现货指数图10HTI乳制品成本期货指数130.0125.0120.0115.0110.0105.0100.095.090.0120.0115.0110.0105.0100.095.090.085.080.0，HTI，HTI图15棕榈油期货收盘价（元/吨）图图15棕榈油期货收盘价（元/吨）图16小麦期货价（元/吨）14000130001200011000100009000800070006000500040001,500.0，HTI，HTI22-0122-0422-0722-1023-0123-0423-0723-1024-0124-0424-0724-1025-0125-0425-0725-1026-0122-0122-0422-0722-1023-0123-0423-0723-1024-0124-0424-0724-1025-0125-0425-0725-1026-0122-0122-0422-0722-1023-0123-0423-0723-1024-0124-0424-0724-1025-0125-0425-0725-1026-0122-0122-0422-0722-1023-0123-0423-0723-1024-0124-0424-0724-1025-0125-0425-0725-1026-01129104.791.07%；方便面成本期货指数为104.15，较上周提升2.42%。棕榈油现货/期货价格月度环比+9.6%/+10.0%，同比-2.6%/+10.8%。价格上行主要受国际油价走强带动，生物柴油掺混需求提升，马来西亚出口亦有边际改善。但马棕油季节性减产幅度不及预期，国内到港充足，重点港口库存同比大增37%，供应宽松格局未改，价格上行仍受压制。小麦现货/期货价格月度环比+0.6%/+5.7%，同比+5.6%/-0.6%。主产区农户惜售叠加托市收购支撑价格，华北黄淮雨雪短暂影响流通，进口粮源持续补充，供应整体有序。下游面粉消费虽处传统旺季，但需求不及预期，粉企开机率同比偏低，仅刚需采购，无集中备货，价格保持平稳。图13HTI方便面成本现货指数图14HTI方便面成本期货指数150.0140.0130.0120.0110.0100.090.0180.0170.0160.0150.0图13HTI方便面成本现货指数图14HTI方便面成本期货指数150.0140.0130.0120.0110.0100.090.0180.0170.0160.0150.0140.0130.0120.0110.0100.090.080.0，HTI，HTI图19白条鸡价格（元/公斤）图图19白条鸡价格（元/公斤）图20平均批发价:28种重点监测蔬菜20.019.519.018.518.017.517.016.516.07.06.56.05.55.04.54.03.53.0，HTI，HTI22-0122-0422-0722-1023-0123-0423-0723-1024-0124-0424-0724-1025-0125-0425-0725-1026-0122-0122-0422-0722-1023-0123-0423-0723-1024-0124-0424-0724-1025-0125-0425-0725-1026-0122-0122-0422-0722-1023-0123-0423-0723-1024-0124-0424-0724-1025-0125-0425-0725-1026-0122-0122-0422-0722-1023-0123-0423-0723-1024-0124-0424-0724-1025-0125-0425-0725-1026-01129117.730.8%；速冻食品117.430.08%。蔬菜价格月度环比/同比-1.8%/-2.5%。山东、河北露地冻害加重，换茬空窗期拉长，保温、运输成本进一步上行，叶菜、茄果类价格环比小幅回升；但云南、浙江等南菜批量上市，南菜北运力度加大，根茎类、耐储菜价格继续回落，拖累整体均价走弱。猪肉价格延续偏弱态势，能繁母猪存栏仍处合理区间上沿，1月猪企控量挺价但月末集中出栏，叠加散户恐慌抛售，供应充裕格局延续；腌腊旺季结束，节日备货提前收尾，禽肉替代依旧明显，终端需求偏弱。白条鸡价格环比/同比-4.9%/-3.8%。虽前期低温致鸡源偏紧，但进口鸡肉持续到港、屠企节前集中出货，叠加需求不及预期，整体供应充裕，拖累价格走弱。图17HTI速冻食品成本现货指数图18HTI速冻食品成本期货指数133.0131.0129.0127.0125.0123.0121.0119.0117.0115.0图17HTI速冻食品成本现货指数图18HTI速冻食品成本期货指数133.0131.0129.0127.0125.0123.0121.0119.0117.0115.0150.0140.0130.0120.0110.0100.0，HTI，HTI22-0122-0422-0722-0122-0422-0722-1023-0123-0423-0723-1024-0124-0424-0724-1025-0125-0425-0725-1026-0122-0122-0422-0722-1023-0123-0423-0723-1024-0124-0424-0724-1025-0125-0425-0725-1026-01129109.280.71%；软饮料成本108.480.56%。PET切片价格月度环比+5.4%，同比+2.1%。国际油价走强带动PX、PTA、乙二醇成本抬升，成本支撑强劲，叠加部分企业装置检修，供应边际收紧，行业库存偏低。下游虽处传统淡季，但大厂节前刚需补库、出口订单边际改善，需求形成有效支撑，价格稳步走高。瓦楞纸价格月度环比-14.3%，同比-6.7%。核心原料废旧黄板纸价格持续回落，成本支撑严重削弱，尽管部分纸企停机检修收缩供应，但下游包装行业旺季不旺，前期备货透支需求，采购仅维持刚需，纸企库存被动累积，需求端乏力主导价格承压下探。图21HTI软饮料成本现货指数图22HTI软饮料成本期货指数150.0145.0140.0135.0130.0125.0120.0115.0110.0105.0100.0图21HTI软饮料成本现货指数图22HTI软饮料成本期货指数150.0145.0140.0135.0130.0125.0120.0115.0110.0105.0100.0190.0170.0150.0130.0110.090.0ss，HTI，HTI图23瓦楞纸市场价（元/图23瓦楞纸市场价（元/吨）图24PET切片价格（元/吨）5,000.010,000.04,500.09,000.04,000.08,000.03,500.07,000.03,000.02,500.06,000.02,000.05,000.0，HTI，HTI22-0122-0422-0722-1023-0123-0423-0723-1024-0124-0424-0724-1025-0125-0425-0725-1026-0122-0122-0422-0722-1023-0123-0423-0723-1024-0124-0424-0724-1025-0125-0425-0725-1026-01原材料价格反弹，地缘冲突加剧，国内疫情反复。中国必需消费APPENDIX1SummaryThismonth,HTI'smonitoredspotcostindicesforallsixconsumergoodscategoriesdeclined,whilefuturescostindicesprimarilyincreased.Spotcostindicesforinstantnoodles,seasonings,frozenfoods,beer,dairyproducts,andsoftdrinkschangedby-0.51%,-1.37%,-1.74%,-1.87%,-1.93%,and-3.71%,respectively.whiletheirfuturescostindiceschangedby+3.31%/+3.03%/-0.61%/+3.15%/+1.58%/+0.00%,respectively.Beer:Thespotcostindexdecreasedby1.87%comparedtothepreviousmonth,whilethefuturesindexincreasedby3.15%.Sincethebeginningofthisyear,thespotandfuturesindiceshavecumulativelychangedby-0.6%and1.81%,respectively,comparedtothesameperiodlastyearwhenthespotandfuturesindicescumulativelychangedby-5.67%and-6.65%,respectively.Glassspot/futuresprices:month-on-month-1.2%/+3.4%,year-on-year-17.9%/-20.2%.Aluminumspot/futuresprices:month-on-month+0.8%/+13.4%,year-on-year+13.0%/+26.4%.Condiments:Thespotcostindexdecreasedby1.37%month-on-month,whilethefuturesindexincreasedby3.03%month-on-month.Year-to-date,spotandfuturesindiceshaveaccumulatedchangesof-0.42%and2.23%,respectively,comparedtocumulativechangesof-5.71%and-7.64%forspotandfuturesindicesduringthesameperiodlastyear.Soybeanspot/futuresprices:-2.4%/+6.7%month-on-month,+6.4%/+10.2%year-on-year.Sugarspot/futuresprices:-1.0%/+0.1%month-on-month,-14.5%/-9.6%year-on-year.DairyProducts:Thespotcostindexdecreasedby1.93%month-on-month,whilethefuturesindexincreasedby1.58%month-on-month.Year-to-date,spotandfuturesindiceshavechangedcumulativelyby-0.43%and1.68%,respectively,comparedto-6.06%and-4.17%forthesameperiodlastyear.Freshmilkpricesroseto3.04yuan/kg.Cornspotpricesincreasedby0.4%month-on-monthand7.5%year-on-year.Soybeanmealspotpricesroseby0.9%month-on-monthand0.3%year-on-year.InstantNoodles:Thespotcostindexdecreasedby0.51%comparedtolastmonth,whilethefuturesindexincreasedby3.31%.Sincethebeginningofthisyear,spotandfuturesindiceshaveaccumulatedchangesof0.79%and3.46%respectively,comparedtospotandfuturesindicesaccumulatingchangesof-1.26%and-4.01%duringthesameperiodlastyear.Palmoilspot/futurespricesrose9.6%/10.0%month-on-monthandfell2.6%/rose10.8%year-on-year.Wheatspot/futurespricesrose0.6%/5.7%month-on-monthandincreased5.6%/decreased0.6%year-on-year.FrozenFood:Thecostspotindexdecreasedby1.74%comparedtothepreviousmonth,whilethefuturesindexfellby0.61%.Year-to-date,spotandfuturesindiceshavecumulativelychangedby-1.44%/-0.14%,comparedto-2.8%/-3.29%forthesameperiodlastyear.Vegetablepricesfellby1.8%month-on-monthand2.5%year-on-year.Porkpricescontinuedtheirweaktrend.Broilerchickenpricesdeclinedby4.9%month-on-monthand3.8%year-on-year.SoftDrinks:Thecostspotindexdecreasedby3.71%month-on-month,whilethefuturesindexremainedunchanged.Year-to-date,thespotandfuturesindiceshaveaccumulatedchangesof-1.12%and-0.19%,respectively,comparedto-3.59%and-10.57%duringthesameperiodlastyear.Drivenbyrisingcrudeoilprices,PETchippricesincreasedby5.4%month-on-monthand2.1%year-on-year.Corrugatedpaperpricesdecreasedby14.3%month-on-monthand6.7%year-on-year.Risks:Reboundinrawmaterialprices,intensificationofgeopoliticalconflicts,andrecurrenceofdomesticepidemics.附录APPENDIX重要信息披露本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司(HTIRL)，HaitongSecuritiesIndiaPrivateLimited(HSIPL)，HaitongInternationalJapanK.K.(HTIJKK)和海通国际证券有限公司(HTISCL)的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团(HTISG)各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。IMPORTANTDISCLOSURESThisresearchreportisdistributedbyHaitongInternational,aglobalbrandnamefortheequityresearchteamsofHaitongInternationalResearchLimited(“HTIRL”),HaitongSecuritiesIndiaPrivateLimited(“HSIPL”),HaitongInternationalJapanK.K.(“HTIJKK”),HaitongInternationalSecuritiesCompanyLimited(“HTISCL”),andanyothermemberswithintheHaitongInternationalSecuritiesGroupofCompanies(“HTISG”),eachauthorizedtoengageinsecuritiesactivitiesinitsrespectivejurisdiction.HTIRL分析师认证AnalystCertification:我，闻宏伟，在此保证（i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。我和我的家属（我已经告知他们）将不会在本研究30个自然日内交易此研究报告所讨论目标公司的证券。I,HongweiWen,certifythati)theviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportaccuratelyreflectmypersonalviewsaboutanyorallofthesubjectcompaniesorissuersreferredtointhisresearchandiinopartofmycompensationwas,isorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportandthatIincludingmembersofmyhouseholdhavenofinancialinterestinthesecurityorsecuritiesofthesubjectcompaniesdiscussedIandmyhousehold,whomIhavealreadynotifiedofthis,willnotdealinortradeanysecuritiesinrespectoftheissuerthatIreviewwithin30calendardaysaftertheresearchreportispublished.我，芮雯，在此保证（i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。我和我的家属（我已经告知他们）将不会在本研究报30个自然日内交易此研究报告所讨论目标公司的证券。I,RavenRuicertifythatitheviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportaccuratelyreflectmypersonalviewsaboutanyorallofthesubjectcompaniesorissuersreferredtointhisresearchandiinopartofmycompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportandthatIincludingmembersofmyhouseholdhavenofinancialinterestinthesecurityorsecuritiesofthesubjectcompaniesdiscussedIandmyhousehold,whomIhavealreadynotifiedofthis,willnotdealinortradeanysecuritiesinrespectoftheissuerthatIreviewwithin30calendardaysaftertheresearchreportispublished.利益冲突披露ConflictofInterestDisclosures海通国际及其某些关联公司可从事投资银行业务和/或对本研究中的特定股票或公司进行做市或持有自营头寸。就本研究报告而言，以下是有关该等关系的披露事项（以下披露不能保证及时无遗漏，如需了解及时全面信息，请发邮件至ERD-Disclosure@）HTIandsomeofitsaffiliatesmayengageininvestmentbankingand/orserveasamarketmakerorholdproprietarytradingpositionsofcertainstocksorcompaniesinthisresearchreport.Asfarasthisresearchreportisconcerned,thefollowingarethedisclosuremattersrelatedtosuchrelationship(Asthefollowingdisclosuredoesnotensuretimelinessandcompleteness,pleasesendanemailtoERD-Disclosure@iftimelyandcomprehensiveinformationisneeded).NoDisclosureCompendiumdisclosure：Fordisclosuresassociatedwitheachcompanymentionedherein,includingdisclosureofrisks,valuationmethodologiesandtargetpriceformation,ifany,pleaserefertothefullreportonourwebsite().评级定义（从2020年7月1日开始执行）：海通国际（以下简称“HTI”）采用相对评级系统来为投资者推荐我们覆盖的公司：优于大市、中性或弱于大市。投资者应仔细阅读HTI的评级定义。并且HTI发布分析师观点的完整信息，投资