2026未来食物2.0：在全球食物系统转型中把握增长机遇研究报告 Future of Food 2.0 Capturing growth in a transforming global food ecosystem

FutureofFood2.0

Capturinggrowthinatransformingglobalfoodecosystem

PwC

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Strategy&|FutureofFood2.0

Strategy&|FutureofFood2.03

Contacts

Australia

AnthonyGoldsworthyPartner,PwCAustralia+61-435-851-445

anthony.goldsworthy

@

Brazil

FabioPereira

Director,PwCBrazil+55-19-97145-9405

fabio.pereira@

Canada

ElisaSwern

Partner,PwCCanada+1-416-723-1229

elisa.swern@

FranceandMaghreb

JonathanLeHenryPartner,Strategy&

MaghrebRegion

+212-6-61-08-25-07

jonathan.le-henry@

GermanyandAustria

HaraldDutzler

Partner,Strategy&Austria+43-664-5152-904

harald.dutzler@

Ireland

DavidMcGee

Partner,PwCIreland+353-86-268-1522

david.a.mcgee@

MiddleEast

AyaHallak

Partner,Strategy&MiddleEast+966-55-740-2586

aya.hallak@

NewZealand

PeterChambers

Partner,PwCNewZealand+64-21-404-015

peter.x.chambers@

SouthAfrica

AndrewDale

Partner,PwCSouthAfrica+27-82-325-3932

a.dale@

Switzerland

StephanLaux

Director,PwCSwitzerland+41-79-753-25-38

stephan.laux@pwc.ch

TheNetherlands

StutiSethi

Director,Strategy&Netherlands

+31-6-2380-2271

stuti.sethi@

UnitedStates

CarlaDeSantis

Partner,PwCUnitedStates+1-617-290-6941

carla.desantis@

Abouttheauthors

HaraldDutzlerisaPartneratStrategy&inVienna.HeleadstheretailandconsumermarketspracticeforStrategy&EuropeandisPwC’sGlobalSectorLeaderforConsumerGoods.His

primaryfocusliesongrowthstrategies,transformation,operationsstrategydevelopmentandorganizationaldesigninfoodandbeveragevaluechains(frominputtorecycling)andin

non-foodsupplychains.

StutiSethiisaDirectoratStrategy&inAmsterdam.SheleadsPwC’sFoodSystemsagenda,focusingonreinventionandtransformationacrosstheglobalfoodsystem.Stutimanagesaglobalcoreandsubject-matterexpertteamtodeliverimpactforclientsworldwide.Herprimaryfocusisongrowthandsustainabilitystrategyinthefoodsystem.

JanikaAlbrechtisaManageratStrategy&inBerlin.Shefocusesonsustainabilitystrategyandtransformationtopicsintheretailandconsumergoodsindustry.

LeoPolweinisaSeniorAssociateatStrategy&inBerlin.Hefocusesontechnology-andsustainability-relatedprojectsinthefoodecosystem.

JuliaRödelisanAssociateatStrategy&inDüsseldorf.Shefocusesongrowthstrategyandtransformationtopicsintheretailandconsumergoodsindustry.

PaulineHoltisanAssociateatStrategy&inMunich.Shefocusesonstrategicsustainabilitytopicsintheretail&consumergoodsindustry.

Wealsowanttothanktheinterviewpartners,ShokoofehManeshandJakobvonBaeyerfortheirgreatcontributiontothestudy.

Strategy&|FutureofFood2.04

TABLEOFCONTENTS

Executivesummary

5

1.Whyreinventionisnowabusinessimperative

7

2.Mappingthefoodecosystem’semerginggrowthareas

2.1Keygrowthareas

2.2HowWeGrow

2.3HowWeProduce

2.4HowWeConsume

9

9

12

17

21

3.Reinventtocapturegrowth:howfoodcompaniescanadaptforthenextdecade

28

Conclusion:Choose,Connect,Capture

33

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

This“FutureofFood2.0”reportmapsandquantifiesthe2035potentialofnineemerginggrowthareasacrossthefoodecosystem.Itbuildsontherecent

PwC

article“Reconfiguringtheglobalfoodsystem”,which

setsoutavisionforamoreresilientandfuture-proofmodel.Thereportdrawsonin-depthdataanalysis,andinsightsfromourinterviewswith30seniorexecutivesworldwideatcompaniesandco-operativesacrossthefoodecosystem.Throughtheseinterviews,weexploredexecutives’perspectivesonthemajorstructuraltrendsshapingthefoodecosystemandexaminedhowtheirorganizationsareunlockingthegrowthareas

theyseeasmostrelevant(seenextpage).

Ourresearchidentifies$3.1trillioninemerginggrowthareasby2035,butcapturingthisvaluerequiresafundamentallydifferentapproachtodecision-making.Leadersmustadoptscenario-basedplanning,usedifferentiatedKPIsforearly-stageventures,andbuildpartnershipsthatshareriskwhileaccessingcapabilitiesthatdon’texistin-house.”

HaraldDutzler

PartneratStrategy&

Strategy&|FutureofFood2.05

Strategy&|FutureofFood2.06

Keyfindingsofthisreportfor2025–2035

1.Healthyeating,rapidlychangingconsumerexpectationsandclimateandenvironmental

changewereidentifiedbyintervieweesasthethreemostimportanttrendsimpactingtheir

businessandthefoodsystemoverthenextdecade,justaheadofAIandtechnology

2.Wehaveidentified9highgrowthareas:HealthandNutrition,Convenience,Shopper

Experience,AdvancedFoodProcessing,AlternativeIngredientsandProteins,Sustainable

Packaging,Next-GenAgriculturalInputs,ConnectedGrowingSystemsandAgriInfrastructure

3.Growtharearevenuesareexpectedtoriseto$3.1trillionby2035,expandingnearly

4xfasterthantheestimated$9.9trillionvalueoftheentirefoodecosystemin2035

4.Thelargestgrowthareasareclosertotheconsumer,yetincreasingpressuretoinnovate

andbuildresiliencedemandstransformativegrowthandsignificantinvestmentinfarmingand

foodproduction

5.At$800billion,HealthandNutritionisthesinglelargestgrowtharea,withpotential

toreshapeingredientchoicesandrippleeffectsintomoreresource-efficientand

sustainableproduction

6.Reducingfinancialandoperationalrisksforfarmersiskeytodrivingadoption

ofinnovationsin

HowWeGrow

ourfood($400billion)andcreatingamoreresilient

foodecosystem

7.InnovatingHowWeProduce($680billion)caneasepressureonlanduseandsupply

chainswithautomation,advancedprocessing,andalternativeingredientsreshapingcost

structuresandwhatweeat

8.Mostintervieweespointedtounclearbusinessmodeleconomicsasacriticalbrakeon

innovationbeyondthecorebusiness,makingithardtosecureandsustaininvestmentlong

enoughtoscalenewbusinessmodels

9.Therewasbroadconsensusamongintervieweesthatnosingleplayercanwinalone

whenitcomestonewgrowthareas.Ecosystemcollaborationisseenasakeyprerequisite

toaccessingthediversecapabilitiesneededforunlockingandscalingbreakthroughgrowth

opportunities

10.Capturingvalueinthefoodsystemrequirescompaniestochoosewheretoplay,

drawingonadeepunderstandingoflong-termtrendsandscenario-basedanalysis,connect

withotherstoshareriskandclosecapabilitygaps,andmaintainasteadycoursewith

decisiveleadershiptoachievescalablegrowth

Strategy&|FutureofFood2.07

SECTION1

1.Whyreinventionisnowabusinessimperative

Theglobalfoodsystemisenteringoneofthemostconsequentialdecadesinitshistory.Climatevolatility,geopoliticalshocks,andresourceconstraintsaredisruptingproductionandsupplychains,whiledemandcontinuestorise.Feedingapopulationthatwillexceed9billionmid-centurywillrequireannualproductionofcropcaloriestoincreasebymorethan50%comparedto2010.1Atthesametime,climatechangeandlanddegradationaredrivingthelossofover100millionhectaresofproductivelandeachyear2,whilenearly70%oftheworld’spopulationwillliveinurbanareas3.Meetingfuturedemandwillrequiremorethanjusthigheryields:landrestorationandnewfoodproductionmethodswillbeessentialtosustainfuturegenerations.

1WorldResourcesInstitute(WRI),“CreatingaSustainableFoodFuture:AMenuofSolutionstoFeedNearly10BillionPeopleby2050”,2019,

/sites/default/files/2019-07/creating-sustainable-food-future_2_5.pdf

2

/news-stories/press-releases/least-100-million-hectares-healthy-land-now-lost-each-year

3

/development/desa/en/news/population/2018-revision-of-world-urbanization-prospects.html

Whatwillaffectusmassivelyisclimatechangeanditsconsequences.Asaseedcompany,wearethefirsttofeelit,becausedevelopinganewvariety,evenifnewbreedingtechnologiesareavailable,stilltakesfivetoeightyearsfromthefirstcrosstomarketreadiness.Climatechangeisovertakingusrightnow.Whatweexpectisthatcropfailuresandpooraverageyieldswillbecomemorefrequentandaffectlargergeographicareas.”

FlorianMayer,

DirectorofSeedsDepartmentatRWA

Strategy&|FutureofFood2.08

Yetthesameforcesthatarestrainingthesystemarealsocreatingnewopportunities.Acrossinterviewswith30seniorexecutivesfromleadingcompaniesworldwide,onemessagewasclear:

valueisinmotion

,andcompaniesthatrecognizeandactonthesedynamicsearlywillplayadisproportionateroleinsecuringtheirowngrowthandsupportingamoreresilientfoodecosystem.Executivespointedtothefollowingtrendsthatwillshapethenextdecade:

•Healthyeating,movingfromanicheconcerntoamainstreamdemanddriver,

•Rapidlychangingconsumerexpectations,from“social-to-shelf”velocitytofrictionlessconvenienceataffordableprices,

•Climateandenvironmentalchange,whichistransformingagriculturetodayandisincreasinglytranslatingintohighercostsforconsumers.

Thesetrendsarenotabstract.Forconsumer-centricplayers,expectationsarerisingontwofrontsatonce.Consumersstillwantfrictionless,“righthere,rightnow”accesstofood,

butincreasinglytheyalsoexpectthatfoodtodomore,byofferingfunctionalbenefitsandsupportingtheiroverallhealthandwellbeing.Asdemandgrows,theboundarybetweenfoodandpharmaisblurring,withpropositionsanchoredlessincategoriesandmoreinhealthoutcomes.Formanyincumbents,thisputsindustryconvergencefirmlyontheagenda,

forcingarethinkofportfolios,partnershipsandthecapabilitiesneededtocompeteinahealth-ledfoodecosystem.

Forfarmer-centriccompaniessuchasseedandfertilizerproducersorlargeagriculturalenterprises,shiftingweatherpatterns,soildegradation,andresourcescarcityarealreadytangiblebusinesschallenges.

Thequestion,then,ishowtocreatestrongerlinksacrossthefoodecosystemsothatpressurepointsforfarmersandgrowthopportunitiesforconsumer-centriccompaniesreinforceratherthanundermineeachother.Thisreportisdesignedtohelpfoodecosystemplayersnavigatethisturningpointintwosteps:

•Section2mapswheregrowthwilloccur,identifyingninemajorgrowthareasacrosstheentireecosystem

•Section3translatestheseopportunitiesintowhatcompaniesmustdo,drawingonour30executiveinterviewstooutlinethecapabilities,partnerships,andleadershipchoicesrequiredtounlockgrowthinanincreasinglyuncertainenvironment

Inshort,thisreportisbothamapofwherethegrowthlies,andaguidetohowcompaniescancaptureit.

Strategy&|FutureofFood2.09

SECTION2

2.Mappingthefoodecosystem’semerginggrowthareas

2.1Keygrowthareas

Tounderstandwherethebiggestopportunitieswillemergeoverthenextdecade,wemappedthefoodecosystem’smostdynamicgrowthareas,wherevalueisshiftingfastestascompaniesrespondtonewtechnologies,changingconsumerexpectationsandclimatepressure.Weidentifiedninegrowthareasacrossthefoodecosystem,frominputtorecyclingandincludingrapidlyemergingsectorssuchasHealthandNutrition,andAlternativeIngredientsand

Proteins(seeExhibit1).

EXHIBIT1

Keygrowthareasandsub-segmentsinthefoodecosystem

$3.1tn

Totalestimatedsizeby2035:

(CAGR7.7%)

Thesebusinessopportunitieswilltranslateintoemergingandshiftinggrowthareasacrosstheentirefoodvaluechain

HowWeConsume

HealthandNutrition

Functionalfoodsandbeverages

Supplements

Personalizednutritionanddiagnostics

HowWeConsume

Convenience

Fooddelivery

Quickcommerce

Mealkits

Majorsmartkitchenappliances

HowWeConsume

ShopperExperience

Retailmedia

Advancedautomatedcheckouts

Agenticfoodcommerce

HowWeProduce

AdvancedFoodProcessing

Automatedfood

processingsystems

High-pressureprocessing(HPP)

3Dfoodprinting

HowWeProduce

AlternativeIngredientsandProteins

Plant-basedproteins

Fermentation-basedproducts

Cultivated(lab-grown)meat

Insectproteins

HowWeProduce

SustainablePackaging

Recyclablepackaging

Biodegradablepackaging

Compostablepackaging

HowWeGrow

Next-GenAgriculturalInputs

CRISPR-editedcrops

Biologicalagriculture

Methane-reducingfeedadditives

HowWeGrow

ConnectedGrowingSystems

Precisionequipmentandautomation

Digitalsensinganddataplatform

Farmmanagementsoftware

Regenerativeagriculture

HowWeGrow

AgriInfrastructure

Agrivoltaics

Solar-poweredcoldstorage

Controlledenvironmentagriculture

Source:Strategy&analysis

Strategy&|FutureofFood2.010

Methodology

Thesegrowthareasareacuratedselectionbasedoninsightsfromexternalmarketanalysis,PwC’sglobalexpertnetworkand30executiveinterviews.Toassesstheirfuturepotential,weprojectedthegrowthtrajectoryofeachareaoverthenextdecadebasedontotalforecastrevenues.Thisanalysisdrewonexternalmarketestimates,includinganalystreports,industryassociationdata,andacademicresearch,inadditiontoinsightsfromtheexecutiveinterviewsandPwC’sglobalexpertnetwork.Usingconsistentvalue-chain-basedsizinglogic,weprojectedrevenuesforeachgrowthareain2025,2030,and2035,toprovideacomparableviewofwheregrowthislikelytomaterialize.

Strategy&|FutureofFood2.011

EXHIBIT2

Projectedmarketsizeofgrowthareas,2025-2035(in$billion)1

Thegrowthareasdifferintheirmarketsize

Totalestimatedsizeby2035:

$3.1tn

(CAGR7.7%)

HowWeConsume

HealthandNutrition$800bn

HowWeConsume

ShopperExperience$630bn

HowWeProduce

SustainablePackaging$430bn

HowWeConsume

Convenience$630bn

HowWeGrow

Agri

Infrastructure$220bn

HowWeGrow

ConnectedGrowing

System$90bn

HowWeProduce

AdvancedFood

Processing$80bn

HowWeProduce

Alternative

IngredientsandProteins

$170bn

HowWeGrow

Next-GenAgriculturalInputs$90bn

1.FortheConveniencegrowtharea,oursizing,asanexception,capturesonlythevalueaddedbyconvenience(i.e.,themarginbetweeninputcostssuchasingredientsorgoodsandconsumerprices)ratherthantotalrevenuestoensurecomparabilityandavoiddoublecounting.

Source:Strategy&analysis

Ouranalysissuggeststhat,whilethevalueoftheoverallfoodecosystemisexpectedtogrowyearlyby2.1%to$9.9trillionin2035,4theninegrowthareaswillexpandmuchfaster:risingfrom$1.5trillionin2025to$3.1trillionin2035(CAGR7.7%,seeExhibit2).

Wegroupthegrowthareasintothreebroadclustersofthefoodecosystem–HowWeGrow,HowWeProduceandHowWeConsume(seeExhibit2).Insections2.2to2.4,wediscusseachclusterinturnandthethreegrowthareaswithinit:

•

HowWeGrow

:$150billion(2025)–$400billion(2035)

•

HowWeProduce

:$290billion(2025)–$680billion(2035)

•

HowWeConsume

:$1,060billion(2025)–$2,060billion(2035)

4

/gx/en/issues/value-in-motion.html

Strategy&|FutureofFood2.012

Whenviewedthisway,thefiguresrelecttheoverallimbalanceintheecosystem:revenuesareheavilyweightedtowardretail,evenasincreasingpressuretoinnovateandbecome

moresustainabledrivetransformativegrowthclosertoproductandfarmlevel.Around90%oftheprojectedvaluein2035relectsashiftfromtraditionaltoemergingsub-segments(forexample,conventionaltoCRISPR-editedcropsoranimal-basedtoalternativeproteins).Theremaining10%representsadditivegrowth,generatedbysub-segmentsthatdonotprimarilyreplaceexistingproducts,includingmethane-reducingfeedadditives,duallanduseforagricultureandsolarenergy(agrivoltaics),andpersonalizednutritionanddiagnostics.

Twoadditionallenseswhichcannotbemeaningfullyquantifiedbutarecriticaltounderstandinghowquicklythesegrowthareaswilldeveloparesystem-widecatalyststhataccelerate

innovation,andregionaldifferencesinadoption.

•System-widecatalysts,suchasdigitaltechnologyandAI,financing,andsupportivegovernmentpolicy,inluencemultiplepartsoftheecosystematonce,accelerating

innovationfromreal-timefarmanalyticstopersonalizednutrition.Othercatalysts,suchaseffortstostrengthenfoodsecurity,reducefoodwasteandincreasecircularity,driveadoptionofsolutionssuchasprecisionagricultureandsolar-poweredcoldstorage.

Ecosystem-wideservicessuchascarbonaccounting,insurance,anddigitaltraceabilityinfrastructurereinforcetheseshiftsbygivingcompaniesthetoolstonavigatecompliance,unlockfinancing,anddemonstrateimpact.Together,thesesystem-wideforcesshapehowquicklynewsolutionscanscaleandhoweffectivelytheytranslateintosustainedimpact.Theyalsorepresentsignificantvalueinthefoodecosystem,althoughthisvaluehasnotbeenquantifiedinthisstudyaspartofthegrowthareasassessment.

•Regionaldifferencesinluencewheregrowthareasaredeveloping.IntheUS,forinstance,innovationisdrivenbybreakthroughsinbiotechnology,AI-enabledfoodsystems,andtheadoptionofGLP-1medications5,akeygrowthacceleratoracrossthehealthandnutritionsector.InEurope,bycontrast,innovationisoftenregulation-driven,withastrongfocusonsustainablepackaging,circularity,andtraceability.IntheMiddleEastandChina,concernsaboutfoodsecurityunderliemajorinvestmentsincontrolledenvironmentagriculture(e.g.,greenhouses).Meanwhile,inmanypartsofAfrica,dietsareshiftingtoincludemoreprotein(e.g.poultryandfish),andAsiaisemergingasahubfordigitalconvenienceandrapid

commerce.SouthAmericaisoneoftheworld’smostimportantsuppliersoffood,fiber,andbioenergy,playingastrategicroleinglobalfoodandenergysecurity.Atthesametime,SouthAmericaisemergingasaglobaltestbedforlarge-scaleagriculturalinnovation,fromdigitalfarmingandprecisionagriculturetobiologicalinputsandsoilregeneration,aimedatboostingproductivitywhiledecouplinggrowthfromenvironmentalimpact.

2.2HowWeGrow

ReinventingHowWeGrowfoodstartsonthefarm.Growthareasinthispartoftheecosystemwillonlyscaleiftheysolvethefarmer’severydaychallenges:creatingbettergrowing

conditions,reducinginputcosts,andincreasingefficiencyandproductivity.Inouranalysis,wefocusonthreegrowthareasthatdirectlyaddressthesepainpointsandtogetherunderpinthe$400billionHowWeGrowmarketsizeby2035(seeExhibit3,nextpage):

•Next-GenAgriculturalInputs

•ConnectedGrowingSystems

•AgriInfrastructure

5GLP-1medications(e.g.,Ozempic)areappetite-regulatingdrugs,initiallydevelopedfordiabetes,thatarenowwidelyusedforweightloss.

Strategy&|FutureofFood2.013

EXHIBIT3

GrowthareasinHowWeGrow

Growthareas

Next-Gen

AgriculturalInputs

Connected

FarmingSystems

Agri

Infrastructure

Definition

Biotechnologicalandbiologicalinputstransformingagriculturetowardgreaterresilienceandefficiency

Smartfarmingsystemsintegratingautomation,data,andregenerativepracticestooptimizeproductivityandsustainability

Renewableenergyintegration,

efficientcoldstorage,andcontrolledgrowingenvironments

Sized

sub-segments

•CRISPR-editedcrops

•Biologicalagriculture

•Methane-reducingfeedadditives

•Precisionequipmentandautomation

•Digitalsensinganddataplatform

•Farmmanagementsoftware

•Regenerativeagriculture

•Controlledenvironmentagriculture

•Agrivoltaics

•Solar-poweredcoldstorage

Growth

drivers

•Climate-drivenproductionlosses

•Supportivepolicies

•Consumerpreferenceforsustainablefoodproduction

•Advancesinbiotechnology

•Needtoimproveyieldsandefficiencyamidclimate,cost,laborandfood

securitypressures

•DigitalizationandcheaperIoT/AI

•Policiesandinvestors

•Weathervolatilityandsupply-chaindisruptions

•Advancesinsolar,automation,andcoolingtechnologies

•Energydemandanddecarbonizationgoals

Challenges

•Regulatoryuncertaintyandlengthyapprovalprocesses

•R&Dcostsandlimitedscalabilityofbiologicalproducts

•Farmeradoptionbarriersduetocost,awareness,andperceivedrisk

•HighupfrontinvestmentandunclearROIlimitingadoption

•Raisingawarenessandtechnologicaladoptioninruralareas

•Lackofclearcertificationstandards,offtakeagreementsandmarket

recognition

•Highcapitalintensityandlongpaybackperiods

•Dependenceonspecialized

maintenance,reliableenergystorage,andskilledlabor

•Land-usecompetition,regulatoryhurdles,andgridintegration

constraints

Marketsize

inbillionUSDandCAGR

+25%

90

1040

+12%

90

3050

+7%

220

110

160

2025

20302035

Source:Strategy&analysis

Strategy&|FutureofFood2.014

Next-GenAgriculturalInputsandConnectedGrowingSystems

Farmersareincreasinglyadoptingnewpracticessuchasprecisionagriculture,regenerativeagricultureandbiologicalinputs(e.g.,biostimulants),toimproveyieldswhilereducing

relianceonsyntheticfertilizersandpesticides–bothmajorcostdriversandenvironmentalliabilities.Precisionagriculturetechnologiessuchassensor-guidedirrigationandAI-basedcropanalyticsenablemoretargetedinputuse,loweringoperatingcostsandincreasing

resiliencetoclimatevolatility.Regenerativeagricultureisgainingtractiontorestoresoilhealthandpotentiallyunlockcarbonrevenuestreams,althoughadoptionstilldependsheavilyoncleareconomicbenefitsandtransitionsupport.

AgriInfrastructure

WithinHowWeGrow,ControlledEnvironmentAgriculture(CEA)isbyfarthelargestsub-segment,drivenprimarilybygreenhousehorticulture,whichweestimatewillreachannual

revenuesof$220billionby2035.Greenhousesarebecominganessentialtoolforclimateresilienceandfoodsecurity.ANaturestudybasedonsatellitedatarevealed1.3millionhectaresofglobalgreenhouseareain2019,anareanearlythesizeofNorthernIrelandorConnecticut,withChinaaccountingfor60%oftotalcoverage6,7.Theirappealisrisingasextremeweather,waterscarcity,andsupplyinstabilityincreasetheneedforpredictable,protectedproductionsystems,eventhoughenergyuseandemissionsremainachallengeinsomegreenhousesystems.Atthesametime,thesectorisbeingreshapedasautomationbecomesessentialamidseverelaborshortages.8Bycontrast,indoorandverticalfarmsremainsmallinscaleduetohigherenergyandlaborcosts,reinforcingthatgreenhouses

willremainthebackboneofcontrolled-environmentfoodproductioninthedecadeahead.Althoughnotsizedinthisstudy,aquaculturerepresentsanotherfast-growingcontrolledproductionsystem,increasinglyimportantformeetingglobalproteindemandasterrestrialagriculturefacesmountingclimateandlandconstraints.

Anotherrapidlyemergingopportunityistheexpansionofcold-chaininfrastructure,particularlythroughsolar-poweredcoldstorageindevelopingmarketsforperishablefood.Acrosssub-SaharanAfrica,theWorldBankestimatesthat7.4millionsmallholderfarmerslackaccesstoadequatecoldstoragefacilities.9InKenyalessthan20%ofperishablefoodisrefrigerated,

leadingtopost-harvestlossesofupto40%.10Inthiscontext,companieslikeSokoFresharepioneeringoff-grid“cold-storage-as-a-service”models,combiningsolar-poweredcoolingunitswithmarket-linkagesolutionsforsmallholderfarmers.Eachinstallationgeneratescommercialreturns,reducingpost-harvestfoodlossesandincreasingfarmers’incomesbyupto30%.11

6

/images/152874/a-greenhouse-boom-in-china

7

/articles/s43016-024-00985-0

8

/m/4e9a7bf2ad664c72/original/Global-greenhouse-update-2025.pdf

9

/curated/en/099235110062231022/pdf/P175150063801e0860928f00e7131b132de.pdf

10

/documents/Sector-Briefs/cold-chain-storage-market-assessment-2023.pdf

11

/set_resources/off-grid-cold-storage-as-a-service-for-farmers-in-kenya

Strategy&|FutureofFood2.015

VerticalintegrationasagrowthmodelinAfricanagribusiness

OurinterviewswithexecutivesfromSouthAfricanagribusinessesshowthatsomeplayersaimtobuildverticallyintegratedbusinessmodelsthatallowthemtoownanddevelop

end-to-endsupplychains–oftenstartingfromscratchduetolimitedlegacyinfrastructure.Thisapproachisessentialforcontrollingquality,reducinginefficiencies,andensuring

foodsecurity,especiallyasrisingincomesshiftconsumerdemandtowardhigherproteindiets.However,constructingthesesupplychainsiscomplexduetointenseinter-countrycompetitionandregulatoryuncertainty.Technologyisakeyenabler:companiesareinvestinginmechanizationandautomation,leveragingaffordableChineseandIndianequipmenttomakemechanizationaccessibletosmallerfarmers.

Farmeradoptionisakeygrowthdriver–andkeychallenge

Unlockingmorethan$400billioninfuturegrowthdependslargelyontheadoptiondecisionsoftheworld’s608millionfarmers–84%ofwhomcultivatelessthantwohectares.12Inpracticalterms,thespeedatwhichfarmersembracechangeultimatelydeterminesthetrajectoryofnearlyever