2026 AI经济学如何颠覆科技巨头研究报告 How AI Economics Is Disrupting the Biggest Names in Tech

HowAIEconomicsIsDisruptingtheBiggest

NamesinTech

GeorgeHumphrey

AIEconomics

™isn’tcoming—it’shere.

Andit’salreadyguttingthebiggestnamesintech.

Here’sthetrap:CompaniesareslashingservicesteamstofundAI

transformation.ButAIdoesn’treducetheneedforservices—itmultipliesitexponentially.EverydollarcutfromservicestodaybecomestendollarsofunrealizedAIvaluetomorrow.

Buthere’swhatmostexecutivesmiss:AIshiftsaccountabilityfromthe

customertothevendor.Intheoldmodel,yousoldsoftware,andthe

customerdidthework.IntheAImodel,theAIdoesthework,whichmeansyouowntheoutcome.Action,accountability,andresultsbecomeyourjob.

Thatjobisservices.

ServicelessAIisamyth.TheEraofTechServicesishere.Andthecompaniesthatwinwillbetheonesthatmovenow—beforethemarketsetstheanchorswithoutthem.

KeyTakeaways

AlisnoteIiminatingservices;it’sredefiningthem.AIintroduces

unprecedentedcomplexityacrossinfrastructure,integration,andapplicationlayers.Thatcomplexitymustbedesigned,managed,andoptimized.ServicesarethenewmultiplierofAIvalue,notacasualtyofit.

Incumbentbusinessmodelsarecollapsingunder

AIEconomics.

SaaS-erainancialframeworks,focusedonrecurringrevenueandfeatureadoption,can’tsustainAI-drivenoperations.Proitabilityinthisneweradependsonmasteringoutcomeownership,notlicensevolume.

Thefuturebelongstoserviceorganizationsthatdaretorebuild.AIdemandsnewdeliverymodels,newmetrics,andnewoperatingstructures.Leaders

whoembraceDARE—Design,Activate,Realize,Evolve—willdominatethenextdecadeoftechnologyservices.

2TM

TableofContents

IncumbentsatRisk:WhatWorkedYesterday4

Won’tWorkTomorrow

WhyAIIstheUltimateDisruptor5

TheProfitabiIityGap:7

Newcomersvs.Incumbents

TheServices-LedFutureofAI8

FromLAERtoDARE:13

TheNewEngagementModel

TheNewRulesofValueEngineering15

TheIrreversibleImpacton16

OffersandOperations

CompeteorConcede18

FAQ19

TSIA’sCompleteEcosystem20

3

IncumbentsatRisk:

WhatWorkedYesterdayWon’tWorkTomorrow

Fordecades,thetechindustry’sgiantshavethrivedbymasteringoneplaybookafteranother.Thatplaybookisnowbroken.

InfrastructureLayer

ThebaseofAIoperations,poweredbyGPUs,NPUs,andhyperscalecomputing.Companiesmustdecidewhethertobuildorbuy,knowingthathardwarebecomesobsoletealmostimmediately.

IntegrationLayer

Theconnectivetissuelinkingsystems,datafeeds,andservices.Thislayer

requiresdeepstrategy,multi-vendorcoordination,andconstantre-architecture.

ApplicationLayer

Wherelanguagemodels,agents,andverticalizedAIproductscreatedifferentiationbutdemandcontinuoustuningandoversight.

AIisforcingeveryincumbenttofaceaneweconomicreality:

WhyAIIstheUltimateDisruptor

Mosttechnologyrevolutionssimplifycomplexity.

AImultipliesit.

AIintroduceswhatTSIAcallstheAIComplexityAvalanche,anewsetof

interlockingchallengesthatredeinehowtechnologyisdesigned,integrated,andoptimized.

theirexistingbusinessmodels,operatingstructures,andinancialassumptionsnolongerhold.

What’shappeningnowmirrorstheindustry’slastsigniicantdisruption:whenthe

SaaSrevolutionswallowedproduct-centriccompanies.

Thosewhoevolvedsurvived—andthosewhodidn’t,disappeared.

“IfyouthoughtswallowingtheSaaSfishwashard,theAIfishisuglier,bonier,andfullofteeth.”

GeorgeHumphrey,SeniorVPofResearch,TSIA.

Today,eventheSaaS-bornincumbentsareinthesamepositiontheirpredecessorsoncefaced.Themovefromproducttoservicewashard.ThemovefromSaaStoAI-irstwillbeharder.

5

TM

4

6

TM

·tsa7

Eachlayerincreasesfriction,cost,andrisk.

IntheSaaSera,automationreducedservicerequirements

.IntheAIera,

automationdrivesdemandforservices.

AIadoptionisnotplug-and-play;it’s

design,governance,optimization,andoutcomemanagement.Everymodelmustbetrained,integrated,andmeasured.Everyprocessmustberewritten.

AIdoesn’tmaketechnologyeasiertoconsume.Itmakesitexponentiallyharder.

“AIisn’tsimplifyingtechnology,it’smultiplyingcomplexity.Serviceseatthatcomplexitysothecustomerdoesn’thaveto.”

GeorgeHumphrey,SeniorVPofResearch,TSIA.

That’stheparadoxof

AIEconomics:

themoreintelligentthetechnologybecomes,themoreservicesitrequirestostayhealthy,secure,andalignedtobusinessoutcomes.

TheProfitabilityGap:

Newcomersvs.Incumbents

AIEconomics

isexposingawideningdividebetweenthosebuiltforAIandthosestillrunningSaaS-eraeconomics.

TSIAtracksthistransformationacrossthreeindices:

TS50–theworld’sleadingestablishedtechnologyandservicescompanies.Cloud40–companiesbornintheSaaSandsubscriptioneconomy.

AI20–thenewestgenerationofAI-irstdisruptors.

TheAI20aregrowingatunprecedentedrates—oftenabove100%annually—butthey’redoingsowithanaverageoperatingincomeofnegative30%.

Proitabilityissacriicedforvelocityandconsumedbycomplexity.

Incumbents,meanwhile,arestuckbetweeneras.Theirinancialmodels,coststructures,andinvestorexpectationswerebuiltforpredictableSaaSgrowth,notthevolatileeconomicsofAItransformation.

Theymustevolveagain,justastheydidwhenSaaSupendedperpetuallicensing.Theproblem:thetimelineisshorter,andthemarginforerrorissmaller.

Thisiswhysomanyleadershipteamsarestrugglingtomakesenseoftheshift.They’retrappedinyesterday’sP&Lwhiletomorrow’scompetitorsarerewritingtheincomestatement.

In

AIEconomics,

proitabilitydoesn’tcomefromsellingsoftware;itcomesfromowningoutcomes.

8

TM

·tsa9

TheServices-LedFutureofAI

Themarketnarrativeiswrong.AIwillnoteliminateservices.Itwillsuperchargethem.

TheAIera

isnotathreattoservices—it’stheirmostsigniicantopportunityindecades.Thecompaniesleadingthis

transformationhavealreadyigureditout.

OpenAI:BettingBigonProfessionalServices

OpenAIisn’tjustanAIproductcompany.It’saprofessionalservices

powerhouseindisguise.With$2billioninservice-drivenrevenuetodayandatargetof$30billionby2026,OpenAIisprovingthatAIvaluecreationrequiresdeep,embeddedservices.

Itsdeliverymodeldoesn’tseparatemanaged,support,orconsulting

functions.Everythingfallsunderoneumbrella:professionalservices.Everycustomerengagementisengineeredaroundintegration,customization,andcontinuousoptimization.

Palantir:TheVanguardModel

PalantirbuilttheForwardDeployedEngineer(FDE)model—ahybridrolecombiningtheskillsofasoftwareengineer,consultant,andbusinessstrategist.FDEsdon’tsell;theyembed.Theybuild,tune,anddeliver

outcomesmeasureddirectlyincustomerKPIs.

Thatmodelisproducingmeasurableimpact:

TrinityRail|$30M

$30MinsavingsatTrinityRailthroughworklowautomationinjust3months.

GeneralMills|$14M

$14MinannualexpensesavingsatGeneralMills.

AssociatedMaterials|90%

A40–90%improvement

inon-timedeliveryratesatAssociatedMaterials.

GlobalBank|60%

A60%faster,90%cheaperAML

worklowoverhaulforaglobalbank.

Thisisthenewprofessionalservicesmodel:high-impact,embedded,outcome-driven.

·tsa11

10TM

Databricks&Uplimit:EducationReinvented

Intheeducationservicesindustry,DatabricksandpartnerUplimitreplacedinstructor-ledtrainingwithAI-drivenenablement.

PaloAltoNetworks:DogfoodingforAdvantage

PaloAlto’sinternal“PandaAI”handlesnearly60%ofemployeeIT,HR,andinancesupportticketsautonomously,saving$3.5Mincloudcostsanddelivering20–30%productivitygainsacross6,000engineers.

94%

course

completionrate.

75%

91%

oflearners

applynewskills

immediately.

Thisclosed-looplearningcreatesaself-reinforcingcycle—aninternallywheelcalledtheDogfoodingFlywheelAdvantage—whereinternalAIadoptionstrengthenscommercialofferings.

reductioninlivetrainingtime.

60%

AutonomousTicketResolution

Internal“PandaAI”agenthandlesnearly60%ofallemployeeIT,HR,andFinanceticketsautonomously.

89,000+

Zero-IncidentProductionChanges

AIagentssuccessfullyexecutedover89,000productionchangeswithzeroincidentsreported.

20%-30%

DeveloperProductivityGain

AItutors,real-timelabs,andpersonalizedlearningpathsnowdeineeducationservicesintheAIera.

Over6,000engineersarerealizinga20%-30%productivityincrease.

$3.5M

CloudCostSavings

Autonomousagentsthatmanage

productionchangeshavesavedthecompany$3.5millionincloudcosts.

ServiceNow:AI-NativeCustomerSuccess

ServiceNowImpactexempliiesAI-nativecustomersuccess.

21%

IncreasedTimetoValue

Customersareusingmoreofwhattheyhavepurchased.

10%

IncreaseinNPS

ForcustomersusingServiceNowImpact.

24%

IncreasedSolutionValue

Increasedvaluefromexistingplatform.

12%

IncreaseinProductivity

ImprovedproductivityforEndusers.Improvedproductivityforinternal

operations.

Impactredeinescustomersuccessfromreactivetaskmanagementtodata-drivenvaluerealization.

FromLAERtoDARE:

TheNewEngagementModel

ThecustomerengagementmodelthatdeinedtheSaaSera,LAER(Land,Adopt,Expand,Renew),isdead.

AIchangeseverythingabouthowcustomersbuy,use,andrenewtechnology.ThefuturemodelisDARE:

Activate

Reaize

whatHappens:valueisproven:costsavings,

productivitygains,newrevenue.andvalue

dashboardscomeintoplay.

whyitMatters:"usage"isnotthemilestone.

outcomeRealizationisthenewdriverofexpansion.

Evve

whatHappens:Modelsaretuned,newusecasesare

introduced,andcontinuousoptimizationkeepsthe

solutionfresh.Newvalueunlocked.

whyitMatters:RenewalisnotJustacontract.It's

Design

whatHappens:

Deploysolution,configureorchestration,andembedintoworkflows.

whyitMatters:

Thisiswherecustomersseeearlywins.

whatHappens:

outcomeengineeringfromthebusinessresulttothemodels,applications,

readinessandgovernance.

whyitMatters:

customersfailiftheir

●

environmentisn'tAI-ready.

aboutexpandingvalue.

Activationisabout

demonstratingthatAlactuallyworksintheirenvironment.

static,set-and-forgetisdead.

Designbuildstrustandsetsthestageformeasurable

value.

InfographicexplainingtheDAREcustomerengagementmodelforAI-era

services:Design(buildtrustandreadiness),Activate(deployandembedAIsolutions),Realize(demonstratemeasurablevalue),andEvolve(optimizeandexpandvalue).

12

TM

tsla13

“DAREreplacesLAER.Design,Activate,Realize,Evolve.Usageisdead.Valuerealizationisthenewrenewal.”

GeorgeHumphrey,SeniorVPofResearch,TSIA.

DAREclosesthe

ValueAssuranceLoop,

arepeatableprocessthatmeasuresanddemonstratesvalueacrosstheentirelifecycle—

frompresalestorenewal.

•ARepeatableProcessOrganizesValue

Conversations

•FourCriticalPhases:

Pre-SalestoRenewal

•ContinuouslyProveandDefendSolutionValue

•ReinforceValueAcrossCustomerLifecycle

IntheAIera,“usage”isirrelevant.Realizedvalueistheonlymetricthatmatters.Renewalisn’tacontractdate.It’saproofpoint.

TheNewRulesofValueEngineering

AIEconomics

forcesanewwayofbuildinganddeliveringtechnology.Servicesorganizationsmustreorganizearoundvalueandoutcome

engineering—thefunctionsthatlinkwhat’ssoldtowhat’srealized.

Threeimperativesdefinethisshift:

1.IdentifywhatAIwillautomate—andwhatitwillamplify.

EverydeliveryorganizationmustassesswhichserviceswillbeaugmentedbyAIandwhichwillberedeinedentirely.Thisisnotoptional;CFOs

expecttheeiciencygains.

2.EstablishaValueEngineeringFunction.

Thisbecomestheanchorfordeining,measuring,anddefendingvalueacrossallservicelines.Itconnectsoffers,pricing,andperformancedirectlytomeasurableoutcomes.

3.Breakandrebuildorganizationalsilos.

Thefutureofservicesisconverged.ProfessionalServices,Education,Support,ManagedServices,andCustomerSuccesscannotoperateindependentlyofoneanother.

ServicePODswillformaroundproductsorverticals,staffedbycross-functionalexpertswhodesign,activate,realize,andevolveoutcomes.Supportingthem:centralizedServiceCentersofExcellenceprovidinganalytics,automation,andengineeringcapabilitiesatscale.

Thisisnotanincrementalchange.It’sorganizationalreconstruction.

14

TM

tsla15

TheIrreversibleImpactonOffersandOperations

By2028,80%ofallenterprisetechnologyspendingwilllowtoAI-poweredapplicationsandrobotics.Themarketwillbesplitbetweentwokindsofcontenders:

•Well-fundedAInativesbornintheAI-irsteconomy.

•CurrentleadersareightingtoretroittheiroffersandoperationsforAIproitability.

Threenewservicecategoriesareemergingasthefoundationofthistransformation:

1.AIreadinessandgovernanceservices:

Preparingcustomerswiththedata,models,andorganizationalreadinessrequiredtosucceed.

2.Valueoptimizationservices:

Continuouslytuningperformance,managingcost,andensuringmeasurableROI.

3.Outcome-orientedAIservices:

ManagingAIinproduction,includingagenticworklowautomationandoutcome-basedpricing.

Thesecategoriesmarkthenextphaseofservicesevolution—from

labor-driventointelligence-driven,fromproject-basedtovalue-based.

Thisistheeraofservicesconvergence,whereeveryofferis

architectedforoutcomes,everyfunctionmeasuresvalue,andeveryrenewalisearnedbyproof,notpromises.

16TM·tsa17

CompeteorConcede

Themessagefortoday’stechnologyleadersissimple:competeorconcede.

AIEconomics

willnotwaitforyournextbudgetcycle.Thestormishere,andmostorganizationsstillhavenobasementtohidein.

Executivesfaceachoice:

•CompetebyembracingAI’scomplexity,rebuildingtheirservicesarchitecture,andturningitintoadifferentiator.

•OrconcedetoanewgenerationofAI-nativecompetitorsalreadybuildingfaster,cheaper,andsmarter.

Thecompaniesthatwinin

AIEconomics

willnotbethosewiththebestmodelsorthelowestcosts.They’llbetheoneswhocanconsistentlydesign,activate,realize,andevolvecustomeroutcomes.

Thisisnottheendofservices.ThisistheEraofServices,andit’salreadyunderway.

FAQ

Whatdoes

“AIEconomics”

actuallymeanfortechnologyservicescompanies?

AIEconomics

representstheinancialandoperationalshiftcreatedbyAI

adoption.Itchangeshowcompaniesgeneraterevenue,deliverservices,andachieveproitability.TraditionalSaaSmodelsmeasuredusage;AImodels

measureoutcomes.

WhyisTSIAsaying“AIwillaccelerateservices”whenthemarketbelievesAIautomatesthem?

Automationincreasestechnicalcomplexity.EveryAIsystem—models,data,governance,optimization—requiresintegration,monitoring,andcontinuousimprovement.Ascomplexityrises,servicedemandincreases.AIdoesn’t

eraseservices;itexpandsthem.

Howshouldtechnologyexecutivesrespondrightnow?

ExecutivesmustidentifywhichservicesAIwillautomateandwhichitwill

amplify.Theyshouldestablishavalueengineeringfunction,rebuilddeliveryaroundmeasurableoutcomes,andaligneveryteamtotheDAREframework.Waitingforclarityisnotastrategy.

ExploretheAIEconomicsResourceCenter

AIEconomicsisonlythebeginning.

VisittheAIEconomicsResourceCenter

toaccessTSIA’slatestresearch,insights,andframeworksguidingtechnologyleadersthroughthisneweraofproitability.Thereyou’llind

thefullAI

EconomicsDeclaration,

resources,andexclusiveTSIAPortalcontent

designedtohelpyoudesign,activate,realize,andevolveyourAIstrategy.

18TM·tsa19

TSIA’sCompleteEcosystem

AdvisoryServices

AdvisoryBlocks:

1–4hourhyper-focused,virtualsessionssolvingaspeciicchallenge.

InteractiveStrategyReviews(ISRs):

Researcherreviewsstrategydocsandhostsa2-hourinteractivesessionwithrecommendations.

Workshops:

Half-tofull-dayengagementsforteamenablementandtransformationplanning.

SpeakingEngagements:

Keynotes,executivebrieings,orpanelsdeliveredbyTSIAexperts.

Benchmarking

Proprietary,data-drivencomparisonsagainstpeercompanies.

PerformanceOptimizer(self-serveorresearcher-led):Measuresmaturity,identiiesgaps,andcomparesagainstindustryaverages.

DataViews&KeyMetrics:Bite-sizedbenchmarks(e.g.,re-newalrates,adoptionratios)availableintheTSIAPortal.

ExpertInquiry

AnExpertInquiryisadirectengagement

withaTSIAResearchExecutivetoansweraspeciicbusinessquestionorvalidatea

TSIAPortal:Research&Insights

Arichlibraryofproprietaryresearchandtools.

•ResearchReports(deepanalysis)

•StateoftheIndustryReports(annual,free)

•FrameworkPapers(visualbest-practicemodels)

•Articles(thoughtleadership)

•DataViews(benchmarkstats,alwayspaid)

•Webinars&Podcasts(free,expert-led)

•IndustryStories(real-worldapplications)

Formatsinclude:

strategy.Inquiriesareaddressedviaacurat-edemailresponseora30-minutecall,de-pendingonthecomplexityoftheissue.

TSIAIntelligence(AI)

TheirstAIbuiltexclusivelyfortechnologyservices.Providestrustedanswersinseconds,complementingtheexpertiseofhumanresearchers.

20TM·tsa21

Free

ExploreTSIA’secosystemwith

limitedaccesstoresearchandAItools—idealforgettingfamiliarbeforeyoucommit.

LimitedTSIAIntelligence

3AIInquiries:SpecializedAIQ&Afortechnologyservices.

3AIContentAssistantUses:

Instantsummariesanddeepdivesintoreports,videos,andmore.

LimitedAccesstoTSIAresearch

PerformanceOptimizerBenchmarksfreeversion

Community&PeerLearning

AdvisoryBoards:

PeercouncilsbyResearchArea.

TSIAWorldConferences:

Keynotes,breakouts,andnetworkingwiththousandsofexecutives.

STARAwards:

Recognitionofmembersuccessstories.

S'"-T

Executive-HostedForum:

Aninvite-onlyexperienceforTSIAAdvisoryBoardexecutivestothinkdeeply,connectmeaningfully,andactdecisivelyonthe

futureoftechnologyservices.

Bestforyourcompany

Individual

Getfull,self-serveaccesstoall

researchareas,TSIAIntelligence,

andbenchmarking—builtforSMB

leadersandsoloprofessionalsreadytolevelup.

SingleUser

UnlimitedTSIAIntelligence

AIInquiry:SpecializedAIQ&Afortechnologyservices.

AIContentAssistant:Instant

summariesanddeepdivesintoreports,videos,andmore.

EverythinginIndividualplus:

ExpertInquiry:Personalized1-on-1guidancecallswithTSIAresearchers

FullExpert-ledBenchmarkingwithPerformanceOptimizer

AdvisoryServices

AnnualIndustryBriefings

SpeakingEngagements

InteractiveStrategyReviews

TSIAWorldIndustryConferencevouchers

TSIABoardSummitExecutiveEventinvites

BerecognizedamongpeersandcustomerswithSTARAwards

MemberSuccessPlanning

Enterprise

Accessorganization-wideresearch,expertadvice,andadvanced

benchmarkingtodrivelarge-scaleservicetransformation.

UnlimitedTSIAIntelligence

AIInquiry:SpecializedAIQ&Afortechnologyservices.

AIContentAssistant:Instant

summariesanddeepdivesintoreports,videos,andmore.

AccesstoallTSIAResearchAreasContentincludingreports,

on-demandcontent,webinars,data,andpers