中美贸易摩擦对中国对外贸易的影响及应对策略的研究

1IntroductionThewholehistoryoftheworldissummedupinthefactthat,whennationsarestrong,theyarenotalwaysjust,andwhentheywanttobejust,theyarenolongerstrong(WinstonLeonardSpencerChurchill).Maintainingworldpeaceandpromotingcommondevelopmentofmankindwillbetheprominentfeaturesofthisnewcentury.LookingattheSino-USrelationsinthe21stcenturyundersuchabackground,thetwocountriesfacemajoropportunitiesforchoice.WhetheritisconfrontationorcooperationwilldeterminethefateoftheAsia-Pacificregionandtheworld.Thisessaywillconductamorein-depthstudyontheeconomicreasons,analyzetheinfluenceonChina’sforeigntradeandputforwardthecountermeasuresforthegovernmentandcooperatesofChinatodealwiththeSino-UStradefriction.WiththecontinuousimprovementofChina’seconomicaggregateandthedeepeningofSino-USeconomicandtradeties,ChinahasreplacedtheEUandJapanasthesecondlargestimporterandthirdlargesttradingpartneroftheUnitedStates;whiletheUnitedStateshasbecomeChina’slargestexportmarketandbecomeitssecondlargesttradingpartner.However,economicandtradecooperationcoexistswitheconomicandtradefrictions.Thecloserthecooperation,thestrongertheconflictandfriction.Judgingfromthecurrentcontradictoryfocus,theUnitedStateshasrepeatedlyusedtheRMBexchangerateandtradeimbalancesasanexcusetoexertpressureonChina,whichhascausedincreasinglyfiercetradefrictionbetweenthetwocountriesandhasreceivedgreaterattentionfromcountriesandeconomies.Thereasonsforthesecontradictionsandconflictsare:differencesintheindustrialstructurebetweenthetwocountries,second,thecostdifferencebetweenthetwocountries'laborforce,third,theneedtorendertheChinesethreattheory,andfourth,otherpoliticalinfluences.Atpresent,howtodealwiththeeconomicandtradefrictionbetweenthetwocountrieshasmadeSino-USeconomicandtradecooperationanddevelopmentmoreimportant,sohowtoslowdowntradefrictionhasbecomeatoppriorityindealingwithSino-UStraderelations.Mainlyfromtheenterpriseandgovernmentlevelofresearch.However,economicandtradecooperationcoexistswitheconomicandtradefrictions.Theclosercooperation,thestrongertheconflictandfriction.Judgingfromthecurrentcontradictoryfocus,theUnitedStateshasrepeatedlyusedtheRMBexchangerateandtradeimbalancesasanexcusetoexertpressureonChina,whichhascausedincreasinglyfiercetradefrictionbetweenthetwocountriesandhasreceivedgreaterattentionfromcountriesandeconomies.Thereasonsforthesecontradictionsandconflictsare:differencesintheindustrialstructurebetweenthetwocountries,second,thecostdifferencebetweenthetwocountries'laborforce,third,theneedtorendertheChinesethreattheory,andfourth,otherpoliticalinfluences.Onthebasisofpreviousstudies,thispaperconductsalargenumberoftheoreticalstudiesonSino-UStradefrictionthroughliteratureresearchandtheoreticalargumentation.FromthecurrentsituationofSino-UStradefriction,itanalyzesthereasonsfordefiningSino-UStradefriction,andthentradesbetweenChinaandtheUnitedStatesaswellasthereasonsforfrictionareelaborated.Finally,itputsforwardreasonablesuggestionsforensuringthebetterdevelopmentofSino-UStradeinthefuture,sortingouttheactualtradefrictionsinthepast,andstudiesthecurrenttradefrictionproblem.Finally,Chinaisrespondingtothefuture.Ontheissueoftradefrictionconflicts,theyputforwardtheirownrelevantopinions.2StatusquoandtrendofSino-UStradefrictionSincejoiningtheWTO,Chinahasenteredthepeakperiodofeconomicandtradefriction.Withthetransformationofeconomicgrowthmodeandtheadjustmentofindustrialstructure,thecontinuousdevelopmentofChina'sforeigntradehasgreatlyaffectedtheinternationalmarketandinternationaldivisionoflabor,andisconstantlyexpandingitsinfluenceontheworldtradepatternandtheglobalmultilateraltradingsystem.ThecasescausedbytradefrictionsandpolicydisputesbetweenChinaandtheUnitedStatesaccountedforalargeproportioninthetradecasesinvolvingChinainrecentyears.ItisofgreatpracticalsignificancetotakeSino-UStradefrictionasanobjectandconductin-depthresearchonitscausesandcountermeasures.Atpresent,howtodealwiththeeconomicandtradefrictionbetweenthetwocountrieshasmadeSino-USeconomicandtradecooperationanddevelopmentmoreimportant,sohowtoslowdowntradefrictionhasbecomeatoppriorityindealingwithSino-UStraderelations.Therefore,thispaperwillmainlyresearchfromtheenterpriseandgovernmentlevelofresearch.ThispapergivesabriefintroductiontothehistoricalprocessofSino-UStradefriction,andanalyzesthecurrentsituationofSino-UStradefrictionandthecausesoffriction.Basedonthisresearch,itproposesfromtheChinesegovernmentandintermsofthetwomainplayers,thestrategyofdealingwithSino-UStradefrictionshopestoprovideusefulideasforthehealthydevelopmentofSino-USeconomicandtraderelations(QiuShan,2009).2.1CharacteristicsofSino-UStradefrictionAsthecharacteristicsofSino-UStradefriction,theUScomplaintsagainstChinaaccountforthevastmajorityoftradefrictioncasesbetweenChinaandtheUnitedStates,theUScomplaintsandChina'sresponsetocomplaintshavebecomethebasicformofSino-UStradefriction.Chinaisgenerallyrelativelypassive.Second,themostconcentratedaspectofUScomplaintsagainstChinaisthelackofexportdumpingandintellectualpropertyprotection.TheUnitedStatesismostanti-dumping,countervailingandspecialsafeguardmeasuresinrestrictingtheimportofChineseproducts.TheexportandinvestmentinChinamainlyrequiresChinatoopenitsmarketandstrengthenintellectualpropertyprotection.Atthesametime,theUnitedStatesstillimposesrestrictionsonChinaintheexportofhigh-techproducts.Third,tradefrictionisaccompaniedbyrapidtradegrowth.DespitetheincreasingtradefrictionbetweenChinaandtheUnitedStates,theeconomicandtradedevelopmentbetweenthetwocountrieshasnotbeensubjecttoitsrealrestrictions.2.1.1HistoricalevolutionofSino-UStradefrictionAsforthehistoricalevolutionofSino-UStradefriction,afterthebirthofNewChinain1949,ChinaandtheUnitedStateswerepoliticallyanddiplomaticallyantagonistic,buttraderelationsremainedforseveralyears.Forexample,inthetwoyearsfrom1949to1950,theUnitedStatesimportedmorefromChinathantheUnitedStatesimportedfromFranceandGermany.WhentheKoreanWarbrokeoutin1950,ChinaandtheUnitedStatesfought,andtheUnitedStatesimposedanembargoonChina.By1984,thetraderelationsbetweenthetwocountrieswerecompletelyinterrupted.Duringthisperiod,traderelationsbetweenthetwocountriesfelltoarecordlow,anditwasonlyaftertheUnitedStatesgraduallyliftedtheembargoagainstChinainthelate1960s.OnJanuary1,1979,ChinaandtheUnitedStatesestablisheddiplomaticrelations,andthetraderelationsbetweenthetwocountriesbegantorecover.Fromthelate1960stothe1970s,thestrategicbasisforthedevelopmentofSino-USrelationswastojointlydealwiththethreatoftheSovietUnion.TheUnitedStatesregardedChinaasafriendlynon-alliance.Underthisbackground,thetwocountrieshavemadegreatprogressineconomicandtrade.Withthesigningoftherelevanttradeagreementsbetweenthetwocountries,theissueofmutualMFNstatusbetweenChinaandtheUnitedStateshasalsobeenresolvedfromthelawandmechanism.AfterChinaofficiallyjoinedtheWTO,theworldpatternhasundergonetremendouschanges.TheUnitedStatesregardsChinaasitseconomicopponent,notastrategically.StrengtheningthesuppressionoftheChineseeconomyasitspolicyoptionhasledtoarelativelystablepoliticalrelationshipbetweenChinaandtheUnitedStates.Theimbalancebetweeneconomicandtradefrictionshasintensified.ThemaindisputefocusesontheSino-UStradedeficitandtheRMBexchangerateissue.AftertheUSfinancialcrisisin2008,economicgrowthsloweddownmarkedly;whileemergingeconomies,especiallyChina,hadagoodlandscape,theystillmaintainedarelativelylargeeconomicgrowthratethatwassignificantlyfasterthanthatofdevelopedcountries.TheWorldBankpredictsthatby2025,theworld'stopthreeeconomieswillbedividedbythethreecountriesofChina,IndiaandtheUnitedStates.Sino-USbilateralrelationsarebecomingmoreandmoreimportant,buttheyarestillinconstantfriction.Sino-USeconomicandtraderelationsareoneofthemostimportantbilateraleconomicandtraderelationsintheworldtoday.ChinaandtheUnitedStatesaretheworld'slargestdevelopingcountriesandthelargestdevelopedcountriesrespectively.Thetraderelationshipbetweenthetwocountrieshasachievedrapidandcomprehensivedevelopmentsincetheestablishmentofdiplomaticrelationsbetweenthetwocountriesin1979.ThisisaSino-USandworldeconomy.Abigdealisagoodthing.Since2002,withChina'saccessiontotheWorldTradeOrganization,Sino-USeconomicandtraderelationshaveenteredanewstageofgrowthandhaveleapttoanewlevel.AccordingtothestatisticsoftheUSDepartmentofCommerce,thetotaltradevolumebetweenChinaandtheUnitedStatesreached386.7billionU.S.dollarsin2007.ChinamaintainsitspositionasthesecondlargesttradingpartneroftheU.S.,andSino-UStradeaccountsfor12.4%ofU.S.foreigntrade,secondonlytoCanada’s1%.ThehealthydevelopmentofSino-USeconomicandtraderelationsisnotonlyofgreatsignificancetotheeconomicdevelopmentofthetwocountries,butalsothecontributionofthetwocountriestoworldeconomicgrowthhasexceeded40%.However,asthemostcomplicatedSino-USeconomicandtraderelationshipintheworld,asthemarketofbothsidescontinuestoexpandandthevolumeoftradecontinuestoincrease,theissueoftradefrictionbetweenChinaandtheUnitedStateshasalsointensifiedwiththedevelopmentofSino-UStrade.2.2CurrentsituationsofSino-UStradefrictionSino-USeconomicandtraderelationsareoneofthemostimportantbilateraleconomicandtraderelationsintheworldtoday.ChinaandtheUnitedStatesaretheworld’slargestdevelopingcountriesandthelargestdevelopedcountriesrespectively.Thetraderelationshipbetweenthetwocountrieshasachievedrapidandcomprehensivedevelopmentsincetheestablishmentofdiplomaticrelationsbetweenthetwocountriesin1979.ThisisaSino-USandworldeconomy.Abigdealisagoodthing.Since2002,withChina'saccessiontotheWorldTradeOrganization,Sino-USeconomicandtraderelationshaveenteredanewstageofgrowthandhaveleapttoanewlevel.AccordingtothestatisticsoftheUSDepartmentofCommerce,thetotaltradevolumebetweenChinaandtheUnitedStatesreached386.7billionU.S.dollarsin207.ChinamaintainsitspositionasthesecondlargesttradingpartneroftheU.S.,andSino-UStradeaccountsfor12.4%ofU.S.foreigntrade,rankonlysecondtoCanada’s1%.ThehealthydevelopmentofSino-USeconomicandtraderelationsisnotonlyofgreatsignificancetotheeconomicdevelopmentofthetwocountries,butalsothecontributionofthetwocountriestoworldeconomicgrowthhasexceeded40%.However,asthemostcomplicatedSino-USeconomicandtraderelationshipintheworld,asthemarketofbothsidescontinuestoexpandandthevolumeoftradecontinuestoincrease,theissueoftradefrictionbetweenChinaandtheUnitedStateshasalsointensifiedwiththedevelopmentofSino-UStrade.TheUSanti-dumpingandquotarestrictionsimposedonChinafrom1979to1989mainlyinvolvedtextilesandsomeindustrialproducts.After2000,thenumberofUSanti-dumpingagainstChinaincreasedyearbyyear,fromtextilesandlightindustrytochemical,steel,electromechanicalandhigh-techproducts.AfterenteringtheWTOin2001,theUnitedStatessoughttoexertpressureonChina'seconomicandsocialrestructuringthroughinstitutionalfrictionscenteredoneconomicsystemcoordination.TheUS'srequirementsforChinaextendedtointellectualpropertyrights,lawenforcement,governmentprocurement,marketaccessforlifescienceandtechnologyproducts,andinsurance.Andtelecommunicationsmarketaccess,subsidiesandmanyotherareas.Sino-UStradefrictionsarerisingfromapurelytradeareatotheentireeconomicstructure,suchasChina'smarketeconomystatus,theRMBexchangerateissueandlaborissues.TheglobalfinancialcrisistriggeredbytheUSsubprimemortgagecrisisinthesecondhalfof2008hasadverselyaffectedtheUSandglobaleconomies.SomeWesterncountriesledbytheUnitedStateshavetakentheleadinsettinguptradeprotectionismandadoptedmanynewrestrictionsonfreetrade.Ithastriggeredmanytradefrictionsanddisputes.AsthesecondlargesttradingpartneroftheUnitedStates,ChinahasnaturallybecometheprimarytargetoftheUStoinitiatetradefriction.In2009and2012,thetradeprotectionmeasuresinitiatedbytheUnitedStatesagainstChinacausedseriousobstaclestotheexportofrelatedcommodities.Forexample,inSeptember2009,theUnitedStatesdecidedtoimposetariffsonChina'stireproductsforthreeconsecutiveyears.OnFebruary5,2010,theUnitedStatesimposedanti-dumpingdutiesofupto231%ongiftboxesandpackagingribbonsinChina,March20,2012,USA.TheMinistryofCommercerulingonthe"doubleopposition"(countervailingandanti-dumping)ofChina'ssolarenergyproductsexportedtotheUnitedStates.ThepreliminaryrulingfoundthattherearesubsidiesforsuchsolarproductsexportedfromChinatotheUnitedStates,rangingfrom2.9%to4.73%.InSeptember2009,theUSspecialcasefortheexportoftirestotheUnitedStateswastakenasthelandmarkevent.AsthefirstUSpresidenttoapproveaspecialsafeguardinvestigationforChina,Obamaapprovedathree-yearrestrictivetariffonChinesetiresexportedtotheUnitedStates.Sino-UStradefrictionshavealsoenteredaperiodofhighexplosion.AccordingtotheannualstatisticsoftheMinistryofCommerceofthePeople'sRepublicofChina,therewere29typesoftraderemedyinvestigationsinitiatedbytheUnitedStatesagainstChina.Thenumberofcasesincreasedby53,andtheamountofChineseexportsinvolvedwas7.6billionUSdollars,atotalincreaseof8times.After2010,tradedisputesbetweenthetwocountrieshavebecomemoreacute,andeconomicandtradefrictionshavebecomemoreintense.Forexample,theUSDepartmentofCommerceandtheUSInternationalTradeCommissionsuccessivelymadeadecisionorrulingonNovember5,2010andNovember6,2010toimposeanti-dumpingdutiesonChineseoilwellpipesexportedtotheUnitedStates.Thetaxrateisupto99.14%,whichisexportedtotheUnitedStates.Coatedpaperandpotassiumpyrophosphatepotassiumdihydrogenphosphateanddipotassiumhydrogenphosphatearesubjecttodoubleanti-tariffs.Inordertosafeguardthenationalinterest,inDecember2011,theMinistryofCommerceissuedanannouncementdecidingtoimposeanti-dumpingdutiesandcountervailingdutiesonsomeproductsexportedtoChinabytheUnitedStates,targetingimportedcarsoriginatingintheUnitedStates(withanexhaustcapacityof2.5litersormore).Andoff-roadvehicles.TheSino-UStradewarhasonceagainopened,whichhascastashadowovertheworldeconomythatisalreadyincrisis.Since2013,tradefrictionsagainstChinahaveintensified.WiththecontinuousexpansionofChina’seconomicexternalrelations,Chinahasrankedfirstinthelistofglobaltradefrictiontargetcountriesfor14consecutiveyears.In2013,Chinafacedatotalof116foreigntraderemedyinvestigations,involving21countriesandregions,amountingto2.7billionUSdollars.Amongthem,thehardesthitareasoftradefrictionarelabor-intensiveproductsmadeinChinasuchasshoes,toys,steel,tires,andaluminumproducts.Thishasalsobecomea"post-financialcrisisera"inChina'sforeigneconomicandtraderelations,withmoreprominentcontradictions,morefrequentfrictions,anddisputes.Themostconcentratedarea.TradedisputesinthisareaaremoreprominentintheeconomicandtradefrictionsbetweenChinaandtheUnitedStates.WiththeimprovementofChina'sscienceandtechnologyandproductioncapacity,China'stradefrictionproductswithothercountrieshavetwocharacteristics.First,thevarietyhasincreased;morecategorieshaveenteredthecatalogueoftradefrictions,becomingnewfrictionhotspots,suchastherapidgrowthofelectromechanicalandhigh-techproducts,aswellastheautomotiveandpharmaceuticalindustries.Second,thescopeisbroader;foreigntraderemedyinvestigationsinitiatedbymeincludebothsingleproductsandtheentirerelevantindustry.Forexample,theanti-dumpinginvestigationofphotovoltaicproductsinitiatedbyChinaaffectstheentirephotovoltaicindustryinChina.ItcanbeseenfromtheabovethattheSino-UStradefrictionproblemismainlymanifestedintheissueofSino-UStradeimbalance,theUS"doubleopposition"issuetoChinaandtheUStradediscriminationagainstChina.Inrecentyears,withthepeacefulriseofChinaandtherapiddevelopmentofSino-UStrade,thedegreeofSino-USeconomicandtradefrictionhasalsointensified,andvariouscontradictionsandexistingproblemshaveemerged,whichhavebecomeprominentissuesinSino-USrelations.EspeciallyinthecurrentUSeconomicrecessionandtheinternationalfinancialcrisishavenotyetbottomedout,theimpactontherealeconomyisdeepening,andastheglobaltradesituationdeterioratesandtradeprotectionismspreadsacrosstheglobe,theSino-UStradefrictionsituationwillbemoresevere.2.3TrendofSino-UStradefrictionSino-UStradefrictionanddisputeshavebeenescalatingsincethesecondhalfof2013,andthisyearisstillgrowing.Thisyear,theUnitedStateslauncheda"double-reverse"investigationorarulingonChinainvolving11commodities.Forexample,theUSDepartmentofCommercemadeadecisivepreliminaryrulingthatdecidedtoimposeacountervailingdutyonChina'sUSsanitizers,andatthesametimemadeasubsidyfortrichloroisocyanuricacidoriginatinginChina.EconomicandtradeexpertsgenerallybelievethattheUnitedStatesistryingtoprotectitsownrelatedindustriesfromgradualrecovery,andatthesametimeincreasethebargainingchipinordertooccupythefavorablepositionoftheSino-USeconomicandtradedialogueinthenewyear,andtoavoidtheintensiveandhigh-profiletradefriction.Inthefuture,thetradefrictionbetweenChinaandtheUnitedStateswill“onlyincreaseordecrease”asChina’stradestatuscontinuestoincreaseandthescaleofSino-UStradeexpands.3ReasonsforSino-UStradefrictionInthe1990s,theUnitedStatesbeganitseconomicstructuraltransformation.Itsmainperformancewastovigorouslydevelophigh-techeconomytoreplacethetraditionalindustrialeconomicstructure.Intheprocessofstructuraladjustment,theoriginalcostadvantagesaregraduallylostintraditionalindustriessuchastextilesandsteel.3.1ResultsofthetransformationoftheUSindustrialstructureIntheresearchanddevelopmentofhigh-techindustries,ittakesupmostofthecapitalandmanpowerinvestmentintheUnitedStates.However,asthehigh-techindustryneedsmoretimetoaccumulateandverify,thispolicyhascausedtheUnitedStatestoloseitsoriginaladvantagesinthetraditionalindustrialmarket,andhasnotestablisheditsownhigh-techproductsuperioritypositionintheinternationalmarket,resultingintheexportofproductsforaperiodoftime.Thecontinuousdeclineinthescaleofimportedproductshasledtotradedeficitsandcapitaloutflows(ZhangLu,2005).UnliketheUnitedStates,Chinahasinvestedlargesumsofmoneyintraditionalindustriessuchastextilesandsteelduringthesameperiod,andhasaccelerateditsindustrialupgradingpace,withasignificantincreaseinproductioncapacityandalargeincreaseinexports.Inviewofthissituation,theUnitedStateshasincreaseditsawarenessofmeasurestoprotectthesameindustryinthecountry.Atthesametime,ChinahasaccelerateditsdevelopmentwiththeestablishmentofadominantpositioninthetraditionalindustrialmarketfortheUnitedStates.TheUnitedStateshastosetupalargenumberoftechnicalbarrierstorestricttheexportofproductsandtechnologiestoChina'shigh-techindustries,resultinginitslackofadvantagesintraditionalindustrialproducts.Inthehigh-techfield,thecurrentsituationofChina’sblockade,tradefrictioncannotbeavoided.3.2DifferencesinlaborcostsbetweenChinaandtheUnitedStatesBecauseofitseconomicdevelopment,theUnitedStateshasrelativelyhighlaborcosts.Chinahasawealthofcheaplaborresources,whichisChina’sadvantage.Althoughtheseworkersaretechnicallyunskilled,theyaremoresuitableforChina'smorelabor-intensiveindustries.Primaryproductssuchastextilesandtoyswithlowindustrialtechnologycontent,strongsubstitution,andlowdemandelasticityaccountforanabsoluteproportionofChina’sexportstotheUnitedStates.Fromtherootcause,itistheWesterncountriesthatmainlyrelyontheUnitedStatestotransfermanufacturingtoChina,whichhascauseddifferencesintheindustrialstructureandtradestructurebetweenChinaandtheUnitedStates.China'sexportofmanufacturingproducts,withitslow-costadvantages,willinevitablyseriouslyimpactthetraditionalmanufacturingindustryinwhichtheUnitedStateshaslostitscostadvantage,thustriggeringtradedisputes.What’smore,therelativegapbetweenChineseandAmericanmanufacturinglaborcostsisshrinking.From1990to2015,theaverageannualwageofChina'smanufacturingindustryincreasedfrom2073yuanto55,324yuan,andthelaborcostin16yearsincreasedby26times.Atthesametime,theaverageannualwageoftheUSmanufacturingindustryrosefrom$28,173to$55,292,andlaborcostsonlyroseby1.9times.ItisworthnotingthatexchangeratefluctuationsarealsoanimportantfactorinthecostoflabortoChinaandtheUnitedStates.TheannualexchangerateofRMBagainsttheUSdollarrosefrom4.8in1990to8.3in2000,andgraduallyfellto6.2in2015.Afterconsideringtheexchangeratefactor,ifthepriceisunifiedinRMB,therelativegapbetweenthelaborcostsofmanufacturinginChinaandtheUnitedStateshasbeenshrinking,andthistrendismoresignificantafter2008.From1990to2015,theaverageannualwagegrowthrateofChina’smanufacturingindustryremainedatalevelof10%,almostalwayshigherthanthatoftheUnitedStates.TheaveragewagegapbetweentheUSandChinamanufacturingindustryhasdroppedfrom6.5timesin1990to6timesin2015.Ontheotherhand,themanufacturingcostratiooftheUSmanufacturingindustryexceedsthatofChina,andthelocationadvantageofattractingmanufacturingishighlighted.From1990to2015,thepercapitavalueaddedoftheUSmanufacturingindustryincreasedby3.16times,whilethepercapitawageofthemanufacturingindustryincreasedby1.91times,whichincreaseditslaborcost-outputratiofrom1.98to3.27,thatis,$1perUSmanufacturingworker.Theaddedvalueofmanufacturingthatcanbecreatedrosefrom$1.98in1990to$3.27in2015.Incontrast,thepercapitaaddedvalueofChina'smanufacturingindustryincreasedby24.73timesinthesameperiod,andthepercapitawageofthemanufacturingindustryincreasedby26.69timesduringthesameperiod.Asaresult,theratioofoutputtothepowerofthepowerofthepowergenerationdidnotriseandfell,from2.59to2.40,thatis,everypayment.Chinesemanufacturingworkersare1yuan,andthevalueaddedofmanufacturingcanbereducedfrom2.59yuanin1990to2.40yuanin2015.Comparedwiththesteadyincreaseinthelaborcost-outputratiooftheUSmanufacturingindustry,thelaborcost-outputratioofChina'smanufacturingindustryhasexperienceda“hump”changeprocessthatfirstrisesandthenfalls.Inthisprocessofincreasingtrade,since2008,China'smanufacturinglaborcost-outputratiohasbeenlowerthanthatoftheUnitedStates.ThismeansthatUSmanufacturingcan“digest”itsrelativelyhighlaborcoststhroughfasterlaborproductivitygrowth.Incontrast,China,since1997,thegrowthrateofmanufacturinglaborproductivitycanonlybarely"catchup"withthegrowthoflaborcosts,andthelaborcost-outputratiohasstalled.Withthefurtherincreaseinmanufacturingpercapitawagesafter2008,China'slaborcost-outputratiohasevendeclined.Therefore,fromtheperspectiveofmanufacturingasawhole,thecurrentinvestmentintheUnitedStateshasbecomemore"cost-effective"thanChina.ThisisalsoanimportantreasonwhysomeAmericancompaniesarereturningtothemainlandandsomeChinesecompaniesare"goingout"oftheUnitedStates.3.3China’sthreattheoryThepoliticalfactorsofUSeconomicsanctionsagainstChinahavebeendiminishingwiththeendoftheColdWarandChina’scontinuousreformandopeningup.Atthesametime,thecontinuousexpansionofeconomicandtradelinksandthecontinuousimprovementofeconomicandtradedependencehavemadetradefrictionthemaindrivingforceforeconomicsanctionsagainstChina.TheChinesethreatmarkethasbeenexpandingintheUnitedStates.Ontheonehand,itisduetodifferencesinideologyandvaluesbetweenChinaandtheUnitedStates,andontheotherhand,itisduetotradeimbalancesandtradefrictionscausedbytradedeficitwithChina.Asanegativefactor,China'sthreattheoryhasinhibitedSino-UStraderelations.In2002,initsfirstannualreport,theU.S.Congress’sUS-ChinaSecurityAppraisalCommitteeaskedtheU.S.governmenttostrengthensurveillanceofU.S.companiesinvestinginChinabecausetheybelievethatthemostunequalrelationshipbetweenU.S.andforeignrelationsisSino-UStraderelations.TheeconomicandmilitarysecurityoftheUnitedStateshasbeenseverelyaffectedby