瑞银-汽车半导体：2026年开局顺畅但隐忧浮现？-Automotive semis：Smooth sailing into 2026 but are clouds on the horizon-20260319

a§

GlobalResearch

19March2026

UBSGlobalI/OSemiconductors

Automotivesemis:Smoothsailinginto2026butarecloudsonthehorizon?

Broadlypositivemomentum,butrecentChinadatacreatesrisks

FollowingQ4,wereviewthelatestleadingindicatorsandupdateouroutlookfortheautomotivesemiconductormarketfor2026Eand2027E.Recentdatasuggestthecyclecontinuestogainmomentum,withimprovingtrendsacrossbothautomotiveandindustrialendmarkets,aswellaspositivepricingnews.Thatsaid,wearecautiousaroundtheslowdownintheChineseautomarket,whichcouldoffsetanyrecoveryinEuropeandtheUS.

1)PositiveAnalogrevenuegrowthpersistingthrough2026E

Basedonlatestresults,companyguidanceandconsensus,positivemomentumthatstartedinQ2'25isexpectedtocontinuethroughout2026E.Q4'25revenuewasup11%y-o-yandconsensusexpectsQ1togrowby18%andc16%y-o-yin26Ecomparedto12%previously.Akeypositiveinthequarterwasreportsthatseveralanalogcompanieshaveincreasedpricing(ieTI,IFXandNXP)duetoinflationcostswhichwouldsuggestupsideifmaterialgivenexpectationsforLSD%pricedeclineforFY26andFY27.

2)Automotiverecoveryishere,butthereisanemergingheadwind

Automotivesemisrevenueswereflaty-o-yinQ4'25andconsensusexpects8%growthinQ1'26,thefirstquarterofy-o-ygrowthinovertwoyears.Weforecastautosemisrevsup10%y-o-yin2026Evs+11.6%previouslyand+14%in2027Evs+13%previously,primarilyunderpinnedbytheendofdestocking.WearecautiousaroundtheChinesemarket,withJanuary–FebruaryretailsalesdatainChina,andc20–30%ofglobalautomotivesemiconductordemanddown19%YTDy-o-y,whichcouldraisetheriskofaninventorycorrectioninH2’26.WeforecastflatrevenuegrowthforincumbentsinChinain2026Evs.+8%y-o-youtsideofChina.

3)Industrialcontinuestosurprisetotheupside,withAIakeydriver

Ontheindustrialside,revsgrew25%y-o-yinQ4'25,drivenbysolidperformanceacrossthemainanalogplayers,andweexpectIndustrialrevstogrowby16%y-o-yin2026Evsc15%previously.For2027E,weforecast+10%y-o-ygrowth.AIcontinuestogrowinimportancewithseveralcompaniesliftingguidancefortheend-marketduringthequarter(IFX,STM).Momentumwilllikelybestrongthrough2026/27thoughthismaybe

toughtomaintain

beyondthis.

Latestdatapointsfromthequarter

1)Thelatest

UBSSemisDistributorTracker

showedreassuringinventorytrendsandthatpricingcontinuestotrendpositivelyacrossthemajorityofproducts,up2%m-o-mand6%y-o-y;2)February

NEVwholesale

volumefellto722kunits,down16%MoMand13%YoY,whileNEVretailwas464kunits,down32%YoY;3)Weloweredour2026E/2027E

smartphoneunitsell-inforecasts

todown5.0%/+2.0%y-o-yfrom+1.0%/+2.0%respectively,reflectingmemorypricehikes.

Sectorpreferences-remainingpositiveonanalog

Analogsemisaretradingonc21.6xP/E12mfwd,vsthe10Yavgof19x.MostpreferrednamesareBuy-ratedTI,Renesas,andSTM.LeastpreferredareON(Neutral),IFX(Neutral),andMelexis(Neutral).

Equities

Global

Semiconductors

Francois-XavierBouvignies

Analyst

francois.bouvignies@

+44-20-75687105

TimothyArcuri

Analyst

timothy.arcuri@

+1-415-3525676

NicolasGaudois

Analyst

nicolas.gaudois@

+65-64955148

KenjiYasui

Analyst

kenji.yasui@

+81-3-52086211

RandyAbrams

Analyst

randy.abrams@

+886-2-87227338

SunnyLin

Analyst

sunny.lin@

+886-2-87227346

MadeleineJenkins

Analyst

madeleine.jenkins@

+44-20-75673145

HarryBlaiklock,CFA

Analyst

harry.blaiklock@

+44-20-75685385

JimmyYu

AnalystS1460517080002

jimmy.yu@

+86-21-38668880

ShingoHirata,CFA

Analyst

shingo.hirata@

+81-3-52086224

PatrickHummel,CFA

Analyst

patrick.hummel@

+41-44-2395254

ThisreporthasbeenpreparedbyUBSAGLondonBranch.ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDREQUIREDDISCLOSURES,iNcLuDiNGiNFoRmAtioNoNtHEQuANtitAtivEREsEARcHREviEwpuBLisHEDByUBS,BEGiNoNpAGE26.UBSdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.

UBSGlobalI/OSemiconductors19March2026a§2

UBSGlobalI/OSemiconductorsUBSResearch

LEADiNDicAToRscoNTiNuEToBEsuppoRTivE

WebelieveleadindicatorsarepositiveintothestartofFY26E.

Figure1:UBSleadingindicatorsforAutos/Industrialsemis

Source:UBSestimates

Figure2:Weexpectnextquartertogrowby2%q-o-qafteradecreaseof1%inQ4'25...

9%

4%

-1%

8%6%

2%

0%

5%5%

-1%-3%

-4%

-7%-8%

-11%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

8%

-1%

8%

4%4%

2%

2%

-0.2%

4%

Q42026E

Q32026E

Q22026E

Q12026E

Q42025

Q32025

Q22025

Q12025

Q42024

Q32024

Q22024

Q12024

Q42023

Q32023

Q22023

Q12023

Q42022

Q32022

Q22022

Q12022

Q42021

Q32021

Q22021

Q12021

Source:UBSestimates,companydata.Note:dataincludesTI,ON,ADI,IFX,STM,Microchip,Melexis,NXP,Renesas

Figure4:CQ126EGuidanceComp.Y-o-Y%AnalogSemis

30%

19%19%19%19%18%21%

16%

11%

7%

3%

0%

-11%

30%33%

17%11%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

TXNADIIFXNXPONRENESASMELXSTMMCHP

Dec-25AMar-26Q4'25Avg.Guidance

10%

Source:Companydata.Note:*Renesas-growthadj.foracquisitionofDialog

Figure3:...Q1'26Elikelytodeliver18%y-o-ygrowthafter11%inQ4'25

9%21%22%23%

11%

5%

2%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%-20%

-30%

35%

24%

21%1

-8%

-15%-14%

-18%

-3%

-8%

-17%

11%

5%1%

18%

15%15%16%

Q32021

Q22021

Q12021

Q12024

Q42023

Q32023

Q22023

Q12023

Q42022

Q32022

Q22022

Q12022

Q42021

Q42026E

Q32026E

Q22026E

Q12026E

Q42025

Q32025

Q22025

Q12025

Q42024

Q32024

Q22024

Source:UBSestimates,companydata.Note:dataincludesTI,ON,ADI,IFX,STM,Microchip,Melexis,NXP,Renesas

Figure5:CQ126EGuidanceComp.Q-o-Q%AnalogSemis

6%5%6%

4%

0%

-7%

MCHPIFXRENESAS

Q4'25Avg.Guidance

11%

4%

3%

-9%

STMADI

Dec-25A

2%

-1%

-3%

-7%

ONTXN

Mar-26

5%

-6%

NXP

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-1%-1%

MELX

Source:Companydata.Note:*Renesas-growthadj.foracquisitionofDialog

UBSGlobalI/OSemiconductors19March2026a§3

Figure6:Weestimate10%y-o-yautosemisrevenuegrowthin2026Evsc12%previouslyand+c14%in2027Evs+c13%previouslybasedonourbottom-upestimates.

Source:Gartner,UBSestimates

Figure7:New/oldestimates

Source:UBSestimates

Figure8:Theanalogsemiswithinourcoveragearetradingona-36%discounttosemiscap,vs.a7%premiumayearago

45.0

40.0

50%

40%

30%

35.0

20%

30.0

25.0

20.0

15.0

10.0

5.0

0.0

10%

0%

-10%-20%-30%-40%-50%

-60%

SemisPremium/DiscountVs.SemiCapsSemiCapsP/ESemisanalogP/E

Source:UBS,Datastream.Thischartincludesglobalcompaniesinanalogandsemiscap.

UBSGlobalI/OSemiconductors19March2026a§4

Chinagrowthhasbeensupportivethrough2025,butweseesomerisks

in2026

Wehavebrokenoutourautosemismodelbyregion,andestimatethatChinaautosemisrevenuesgrew7%y-o-yin2025,consistentwithcommentaryofrelativestrengththroughtheyearfromourcoverage.Lookinginto2026,weexpectChinatogrow5%,withoutperformancefromnon-Chinaup8%y-o-y.Importantlythis5%doesnottakeintoaccountanypotentialinventorycorrectionwhichcoulddrivegrowthlower.Whenaccountingforpotentialsharelosstodomesticsemisplayers,wethinkglobalincumbents'autosemisrevenuesinChinaaresettobeflatin2026,whileweestimatenon-Chinarevenueswillbeup8%y-o-y,nottakingintoaccountanyimpactfrominventorybuild/correction.

Figure9:China%ofrevenueformainanalogplayers

202320242025

IFXSTMRENETXNADINXP

30%31%

26%21%

17%14%

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

34%

28%

19%

32%

24%

15%15%

China%ofrevenue

19%18%

23%

15%

Source:Companydata,UBS;TXNandNXPisrevenuefromChinaHQcompanies

Figure10:Chinagrowthy-o-ybycompaniesshowssignificantdifference

YoY%

20152016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

IFX

17%

55%

14%

1%

17%

37%

10%

4%

-4%

14%

RENE

1%

41%

3%

-1%

14%

33%

54%

-21%

-3%

10%

TXN

3%

10%

6%

3%

-38%

3%

5%

-31%

-9%

26%

ADI

13%

46%

44%

9%

2%

20%

59%

-13%

-5%

34%

NXP

24%

-6%

20%

-7%

27%

-18%

12%

-7%

4%

6%

Total

11%

15%

0%

13%

-5%

8%

19%

-13%

-3%

18%

Source:Companydata,UBS

Figure11:Chinagrewc7%y-o-yin2025butissettogrowmoreinlinewiththemarketgoingforward

Globalautosemisrevenuegrowth

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

20222023202420252026E2027E2028E2029E2030E

ChinaGlobalex-China

China2025-29ECAGRGlobalex-China2025-29ECAGR

Source:Gartner,UBSestimates

Figure12:Whenaccountingforshareloss,weestimateincumbents'revenuegrowthshouldbestrongeroutsideChina2025-29E

Globalincumbentautosemisrevenuegrowth

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

202220232024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E

ChinaGlobalex-China

China2024-28ECAGRGlobalex-China2024-28ECAGR

Source:Gartner,UBSestimates

UBSGlobalI/OSemiconductors19March2026a§5

Figure13:Wemodelautosemisrevenuesbyregion

Sales($m)byregion

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026E

2027E

2028E

2029E

2030E

Europe

11,838

12,368

14,838

15,527

15,414

16,936

18,537

20,209

21,005

21,798

US

9,917

10,782

12,396

12,883

12,593

12,990

13,723

14,693

15,180

15,641

China

14,735

19,020

20,382

24,687

26,388

27,698

30,408

32,946

35,130

36,815

Japan

2,994

3,152

3,563

3,300

3,366

3,700

3,938

4,197

4,280

4,377

ROW

15,210

18,314

20,315

18,639

18,345

19,915

21,803

23,858

24,991

25,677

Total

yoy

54,693

63,636

16%

71,494

12%

75,036

5%

76,106

1%

81,240

7%

88,407

9%

95,904

8%

100,585

5%

104,307

4%

y-o-y

China

29%

7%

21%

7%

5%

10%

8%

7%

5%

Globalex-China

12%

15%

-1%

-1%

8%

8%

9%

4%

3%

China2025-29ECAGR

7%

7%

7%

7%

7%

Globalex-China2025-29ECAGR

7%

7%

7%

7%

7%

Globalincumbentmarketshare

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026E

2027E

2028E

2029E

2030E

Europe

95%

95%

95%

95%

94%

94%

93%

93%

92%

92%

US

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

China

90%

90%

90%

86%

82%

78%

74%

70%

66%

62%

Japan

90%

90%

90%

90%

90%

90%

90%

90%

90%

90%

ROW

90%

90%

90%

90%

89%

89%

88%

88%

87%

87%

Average

93%

93%

93%

91%

89%

88%

86%

85%

83%

81%

Globalincumbentrevenue($m)

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026E

2027E

2028E

2029E

2030E

Europe

11,246

11,749

14,096

14,673

14,489

15,835

17,239

18,693

19,324

19,945

US

9,917

10,782

12,396

12,883

12,593

12,990

13,723

14,693

15,180

15,641

China

13,262

17,118

18,344

21,231

21,638

21,605

22,502

23,062

23,186

22,825

Japan

2,694

2,837

3,207

2,970

3,030

3,330

3,544

3,778

3,852

3,939

ROW

13,689

16,482

18,283

16,682

16,327

17,625

19,186

20,876

21,742

22,210

Total

yoy

50,808

58,969

16%

66,326

12%

68,439

3%

68,077

-1%

71,386

5%

76,194

7%

81,102

6%

83,284

3%

84,560

2%

y-o-y

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026E

2027E

2028E

2029E

2030E

Europe

4%

20%

4%

-1%

9%

9%

8%

3%

3%

US

9%

15%

4%

-2%

3%

6%

7%

3%

3%

China

29%

7%

16%

2%

0%

4%

2%

1%

-2%

Japan

5%

13%

-7%

2%

10%

6%

7%

2%

2%

ROW

20%

11%

-9%

-2%

8%

9%

9%

4%

2%

China

29%

7%

16%

2%

0%

4%

2%

1%

-2%

Globalex-China

11%

15%

-2%

-2%

7%

8%

8%

4%

3%

China2025-29ECAGR

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

Globalex-China2025-29ECAGR

5%

5%

5%

5%

5%

%ofrevenues

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026E

2027E

2028E

2029E

2030E

Europe

22%

20%

21%

21%

21%

22%

23%

23%

23%

24%

US

20%

18%

19%

19%

18%

18%

18%

18%

18%

18%

China

26%

29%

28%

31%

32%

30%

30%

28%

28%

27%

Japan

5%

5%

5%

4%

4%

5%

5%

5%

5%

5%

ROW

27%

28%

28%

24%

24%

25%

25%

26%

26%

26%

Source:UBSestimates,Gartner

Figure14:UBSChinaautosriskscoreusing2025data

Auto%ofsalesDomesticChinaRiskfactor2023RiskfactorComment

NXP

58%

17%

15%

15%

NXPexposuretohighendMCUshouldcontinuetooffersomeprotection

Rohm

52%

15%

14%

12%

StrongexposuretodiscretepowersimilartoInfineonandON

Renesas

49%

14%

13%

12%

SimilartoNXP,highendMCUexposurecouldoffersomeprotection

Infineon

50%

13%

13%

13%

PowerdiscreteexposureputsIFXathighriskbutMCUcouldhelptooffsetthis

ONSemi

51%

12%

13%

13%

LeaderinpowerdiscretewithstrongepxosuretoSiC

TexasInstruments

33%

21%

13%

12%

Broadlydiversifiedportfolioandcost

advantagefrom300mmmanufacturing

STMicro

40%

14%

11%

13%

GeneralpurposeMCUandpowerdiscreteexposureishigherrisk

AnalogDevices

30%

12%

9%

7%

BroadportfoliobutsomeareassuchasBMSatrisk

Microchip

16%

17%

8%

8%

HighgeneralpurposeMCUexposurebutlowauto

Source:Companydata,UBS;RiskFactor=(⅓autoexposurex⅔domesticChinaexposure)

UBSGlobalI/OSemiconductors19March2026a§6

Leadingindicatoranalysis

Wedoadeepdiveintodifferentleadingindicators.

Figure15:Whenaccountingforcontentgrowth,weestimateinventory

digestionstartedinQ4'23andweexpectanimprovingtrendthroughtheyear

Autoproductiongrowth+assumedcontentgrowthvs.autosemisrevenuegrowth50.0%

40.0%

30.0%

20.0%

10.0%

0.0%

-10.0%

-20.0%

-30.0%

Inventorybuild

InventorydigestionbeganinQ4'23

Inventorydigestion

Mar-12Mar-13Mar-14Mar-15Mar-16Mar-17Mar-18Mar-19Mar-20Mar-21Mar-22Mar-23Mar-24Mar-25Mar-26

Source:UBSestimates,companydata,VAconsensus;assumedcontentgrowthof8%y-o-yannually

UBSGlobalI/OSemiconductors19March2026a§7

Strongoutlookinto2026

1)Inventoriesarenowshowingnormalisationatdistributorsandat

OEMs

Figure16:Auto/industrialOEMinventorydaysstabilizing

70

Q42021Q42022Q42023Q42024Q42025

Auto/IndustrialOEMInvDaysAverage

77

74

80

75

70

65

60

55

50

74

75

Source:UBS,companydata

2)SemisoutlooksuggestspositivemomentumaheadFigure18:Weexpectnextquartertogrowby2%q-o-q

afteradecreaseof1%inQ4'25...

Q42026E

Q32026E

Q22026E

Q12026E

Q42025

Q32025

Q22025

Q12025

Q42024

Q32024

Q22024

Q12024

Q42023

Q32023

Q22023

Q12023

Q42022

Q32022

Q22022

Q12022

Q42021

Q32021

Q22021

Q12021

9%

4%

-1%

8%6%

2%

0%

5%5%

-1%-3%

-4%

-7%-8%

-11%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

8%

-1%

8%

4%4%

2%

2%

-0.2%

4%

Source:UBSestimates,companydata.Note:dataincludesTI,ON,ADI,IFX,STM,Microchip,Melexis,NXP,Renesas

Figure17:Totalinventories'000units:inventorieswereflatduring4Q25vs4Q24levels

Q425

Q325

Q225

Q125

Q424

Q324

Q224

Q124

Q423

Q323

Q223

Q123

Q422

Q322

Q222

Q122

Q421

Q321

Q221

Q121

Q420

Q320

Q220

Q120

Q419

Q319

Q219

Q119

2,000

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

RenaultFordStellantis

Source:Companydata,UBSestimates

Figure19:...Q1'26Elikelytodeliver18%y-o-ygrowthafter11%inQ4'25

9%21%22%23%

11%

5%

2%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%-20%

-30%

35%

24%

21%1

-8%

-15%-14%

-18%

-3%

-8%

-17%

11%

5%1%

18%

15%15%16%

Q32021

Q22021

Q12021

Q12024

Q42023

Q32023

Q22023

Q12023

Q42022

Q32022

Q22022

Q12022

Q42021

Q42026E

Q32026E

Q22026E

Q12026E

Q42025

Q32025

Q22025

Q12025

Q42024

Q32024

Q22024

Source:UBSestimates,companydata.Note:dataincludesTI,ON,ADI,IFX,STM,Microchip,Melexis,NXP,Renesas

Figure20:Automotiverevenuegrowthy-o-ybycompany

Source:UBSe,Companydata,*historicalsrestatedforTIsegmentreclassification

Figure21:Automotiverevenuegrowthy-o-ybycompanybyquarter

Source:UBSe,Companydata,*historicalsrestatedforTIsegmentreclassification

UBSGlobalI/OSemiconductors19March2026a§8

3)Autosdemandstilluncertain

Figure22:China'sPVinventorychanges(monthly)

Source:ChinaAutomobileDealersAssociation(CADA)

Figure23:UBSglobalautosalesestimates

Sales,munits

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

Q125

Q225

Q325

Q425

2025

2026E

2027E

2028E

2029E

WesternEurope

16.1

17.2

17.8

17.9

18.1

13.8

13.9

13.0

14.8

15.1

3.9

3.9

3.6

3.8

15.2

15.6

15.8

16.0

16.2

%growth

17.8%

7.2%

3.2%

0.5%

1.3%

-23.6%

0.2%

-6.2%

14.0%

1.6%

-1.9%

-3.1%

6.8%

2.3%

0.7%

2.5%

1.6%

1.5%

1.0%

ofwhich:Germany

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.7

3.9

3.2

2.9

2.9

3.1

3.1

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.8

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.3

3.4

%growth

5.5%

4.8%

2.5%

0.6%

5.1%

-18.6%

-9.3%

-0.3%

7.7%

-0.2%

-5.0%

-6.3%

10.3%

6.1%

0.9%

2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%

ofwhich:France

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.1

2.1

1.9

2.2

2.1

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.5

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.1

%growth

5.9%

5.6%

4.3%

4.1%

2.3%

-23.9%

1.9%

-10.2%

14.7%

-2.5%

-8.3%

-8.7%

-1.0%

-0.8%

-5.0%

2.0%

1.5%

1.5%

1.0%

ofwhich:Italy

1.7

2.0

2.2

2.1

2.1

1.5

1.6

1.5

1.8

1.8

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.4

1.7

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

%growth

15.6%

19.8%

6.2%

-4.0%

0.8%

-26.6%

6.6%

-10.1%

19.3%

-0.3%

-3.1%

-5.9%

0.2%

0.9%

-2.3%

2.0%

1.5%

1.5%

1.0%

ofwhich:Spain

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.0

1.0

0.9

1.1

1.2

0.3

0.4

0.3

0.3

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.5

%growth

22.7%

11.0%

8.5%

7.1%

-4.0%

-31.5%

0.1%

-7.7%

17.5%

7.9%

14.0%

13.3%

17.1%

8.1%

12.9%

7.0%

1.5%

1.5%

1.0%

ofwhich:UK

3.0

3.1

2.9

2.7

2.7

1.9

2.0

1.9

2.3

2.3

0.7

0.5

0.6

0.5

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.5

%growth

7.4%

2.0%

-5.2%

-6.3%

-1.8%

-28.1%

4.1%

-5.3%

18.4%

2.8%

4.0%

-2.2%

4.0%

-0.2%

1.6%

2.0%

1.5%

1.5%

1.0%

RoWE

4.4

4.7

5.0

5.1

5.2

4.1

4.2

3.9

4.4

4.6

1.1

1.2

1.1

1.2

4.6

4.7

4.8

4.9

4.9

%growth

49.6%

7.6%

5.8%

2.6%

1.5%

-21.3%

2.4%

-6.9%

13.2%

3.6%

-3.4%

-2.1%

9.1%

1.2%

0.9%

2.0%

1.5%

1.5%

1.0%

EasternEurope

2.8

2.6

2.8

2.7

2.5

2.9

2.9

2.0

3.1

3.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.1

3.5

3.6

3.6

3.7

3.8

%growth

-39.3%

-7.6%

6.9%

-3.7%

-5.6%

14.3%

-0.1%

-31.5%

55.7%

17.0%

-12.9%

-5.8%

-1.2%

7.4%

-2.4%

2.0%

1.0%

2.0%

2.0%

ofwhich:Russia

1.6

1.4

1.6

1.8

1.8

1.6

1.7

0.7

1.1

1.6

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

%growth

-35.6%

-11.2%

11.6%

13.1%

-2.5%

-8.7%

4.5%

-57.9%

59.5%

46.0%

-24.6%

-26.6%

-17.9%

0.6%

-16.5%

0.0%

0.0%

2.0%

2.0%

Europe

18.9

19.8

20.6

20.6

20.6

16.7

16.8

15.0

17.9

18.7

4.5

4.7

4.5

4.9

18.7

19.2

19.4

19.8

20.0

%growth

3.3%

5.0%

3.7%

-0.1%

0.4%

-18.9%

0.1%

-10.6%

19.5%

4.3%

-3.7%

-3.6%

5.1%

3.4%

0.1%

2.4%

1.5%

1.6%

1.2%

NorthAmerica

20.7

21.1

20.8

20.7

20.3

17.1

17.7

16.5

18.7

19.5

4.8

5.2

5.0

4.9

19.9

19.3

19.1

19.1

19.2

%growth

6.4%

1.7%

-1.5%

-0.2%

-2.0%

-15.8%

3.8%

-7.0%

13.2%

4.2%

4.9%

3.3%

5.3%

-4.3%

2.2%

-2.9%

-1.0%

0.0%

0.5%

ofwhich:USA

17.5

17.6

17.2

17.3

17.1

14.6

15.1

13.9

15.6

16.0

3.9

4.2

4.1

4.1

16.4

16.0

15.8

15.8

15.8

%growth

5.8%

0.4%

-2.1%

0.8%

-1.3%

-14.6%

3.3%

-7.9%

12.4%

2.8%

4.6%

2.7%

5.9%

-3.7%

2.2%

-2.4%

-1.3%

0.0%

0.0%

SouthAmerica

4.4

3.9

4.4

4.7

4.5

3.2

3.8

3.9

4.0

4.2

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

4.6

4.8

4.9

5.1

5.3

%growth

-18.5%

-10.9%

12.7%

6.5%

-3.6%

-28.8%

16.9%

2.2%

3.1%

5.5%

15.7%

11.5%

7.4%

8.3%

10.3%

4.0%

3.0%

3.0%

3.0%

ofwhich:Brazil

2.5

2.0

2.2

2.5

2.7

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.2

2.5

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.7

2.5

2.7

2.7

2.8

2.9

%growth

-25.6%

-19.9%

9.7%

13.0%

8.2%

-26.6%

1.2%

-1.0%

11.4%

14.0%

7.0%

3.2%

0.1%

0.6%

2.3%

4.0%

3.0%

3.0%

3.0%

Asia

38.0

41.3

42.6

42.1

39.0

35.9

37.0

38.3

40.5

40.5

10.0

10.1

10.5

11.9

42.4

42.5

43.6

44.7

45.8

%growth

3.1%

8.7%

3.0%

-1.0%

-7.3%

-8.1%

3.0%

3.6%

5.7%

0.0%

9.6%

7.6%

7.0%

-2.8%

4.8%

0.3%

2.6%

2.4%

2.4%

ofwhich:Japan

4.9

4.8

5.1

5.2

5.1

4.5

4.4

4.2

4.7

4.3

1.3

1.0

1.1

1.1

4.5

4.6

4.6

4.5

4.5

%growth

-9.6%

-2.0%

5.9%

0.5%

-1.3%

-11.5%

-3.3%

-3.7%

12.0%

-7.9%

14.0%

6.9%

-4.5%

-2.0%

3.4%

3.2%

-1.0%

-1.0%

-1.0%

ofwhich:China

24.4

27.6

28.0

27.0

24.7

23.7

23.9

24.1

25.5

25.9

6.1

6.5

6.8

7.9

27.3

26.8

27.3

27.8

28.4

%growth

5.8%

12.8%

1.6%

-3.5%

-8.6%

-4.2%

1.0%

0.9%

5.6%

1.8%

11.9%

10.4%

11.6%

-6.7%

5.4%

-2.0%

2.0%

2.0%

2.0%

ofwhich:India

3.2

3.4

3.7

4.0

3.5

2.8

3.5

4.4

4.7

4.9

1.3

1.2

1.2

1.4

5.2

5.4

5.7

6.1

6.5

%growth

7.0%

8.2%

9.1%

7.3%

-11.6%

-20.6%

26.5%

23.7%

7.4%

4.1%

3.7%

-0.1%

-0.2%

17.8%

5.4%

5.0%

6.0%

6.0%

6.0%

ofwhich:SouthKorea

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.7

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.7

1.6

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

%growth

11.4%

-1.0%

-1.6%

1.4%

-3.3%

6.9%

-8.7%

-2.4%

3.3%

-6.5%

2.2%

4.9%

11.6%

-4.6%

3.3%

2.0%

1.0%

1.0%

1.0%

ofwhich:ASEAN

3.0

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.3

2.5

2.8

3.3

3.3

3.1

0.8

0.7

0.8

0.9

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4.0

%growth

-4.9%

2.4%

5.8%

5.5%

-1.6%

-26.2%

12.0%

21.0%

-1.1%

-5.5%

3.1%

2.2%

-2.1%

3.9%

1.8%

7.0%

7.0%

5.0%

4.0%

Other

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.7

%growth

13.0%

-3.3%

7.4%

7.6%

-16.5%

-8.0%

19.0%

-12.8%

-4.2%

3.7%

-3.0%

-4.9%

2.4%

12.9%

1.8%

3.0%

3.0%

3.0%

3.0%

ROW

6.2

6.1

6.2

5.6

4.9

4.2

5.0

5.4

5.7

5.9

1.6

1.4

1.5

1.6

6.1

6.3

6.5

6.7

6.9

%growth

-3.2%

-2.3%

1.9%

-10.0%

-11.4%

-14.0%

18.6%

6.3%

6.0%

4.0%

10.3%

1.1%

3.9%

1.0%

4.0%

3.0%

3.0%

3.0%

3.0%

Total

88.2

92.2

94.5

93.7

89.5

77.2

80.3

79.0

86.7

88.7

21.9

22.5

22.7

24.6

91.7

92.1

93.6

95.3

97.1

%growth

2.0%

4.5%

2.5%

-0.9%

-4.5%

-13.7%

4.0%

-1.6%

9.8%

2.3%

5.8%

3.8%

6.1%

-1.1%

3.4%

0.4%

1.6%

1.8%

1.8%

Source:UBSestimates

UBSGlobalI/OSemiconductors19March2026a§9

Figure24:UBSglobalautoproductionestimates

(Production,munits)

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025E

2026E

2027E

2028E

2029E

WesternEurope

18.8

19.0

18.6

17.7

13.6

12.8

13.5

15.3

14.4

14.1

13.9

13.7

13.5

13.3

%growth

11.2%

20.1%

15.8%

-4.7%

-23.1%

-5.7%

5.5%

13.1%

-6.1%

-1.7%

-1.5%

-1.5%

-1.5%

-1.5%

EasternEurope

2.8

3.3

3.4

3.4

3.0

3.1

2.3

2.7

2.8

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.9

3.0

%growth

-15.8%

-4.7%

-1.7%

-0.7%

-12.0%

2.7%

-24.9%

16.0%

5.6%

1.5%

1.0%

1.0%

1.0%

1.0%

Europe

21.5

22.3

22.0

21.1

16.6

15.9

15.8

18.0

17.2

17.0

16.8

16.6

16.4

16.3

%growth

2.8%

3.7%

-1.6%

-4.1%

-21%

-4%

0%

14%

-4%

-1.2%

-1.1%

-1.1%

-1.1%

-1.1%

NorthAmerica

17.8

17.1

17.0

16.3

13.0

13.0

14.3

15.7

15.4

15.3

15.2

15.3

15.5

15.8

%growth

2.0%

-3.9%

-1.0%

-4.0%

-20.0%

0.2%

9.6%

9.7%

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.7%

0.7%

1.3%

1.9%

SouthAmerica

2.7

3.3

3.4

3.3

2.2

2.6

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.1

%growth

-11.5%

20.3%

4.1%

-4.4%

-31.5%

16.1%

8.3%

3.1%

1.7%

5.0%

1.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

ofwhich:Brazil

2.1

2.6

2.8

2.8

1.9

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.5

%growth

-11.1%

26.1%

5.2%

0.9%

-32.1%

8.8%

5.1%

1.2%

8.0%

5.0%

1.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Asia

48.7

50.0

49.2

46.1

41.0

43.6

47.2

51.6

51.7

55.2

56.9

58.4

59.9

61.4

%growth

7.6%

2.6%

-1.4%

-6.4%

-11.1%

6.4%

8.1%

9.5%

0.1%

6.9%

3.0%

2.7%

2.6%

2.5%

ofwhich:Japan

8.8

9.2

9.2

9.2

7.8

7.5

7.4

8.6

7.9

8.1

8.2

8.2

8.1

8.1

%growth

-5.7%

5.2%

0.3%

-0.3%

-15.8%

-3.8%

-0.4%

16.1%

-8.4%

2.7%

1.6%

-0.6%

-0.6%

-0.6%

ofwhich:China

27.1

27.6

26.6

24.3

23.3

24.6

26.2

28.8

29.8

32.9

33.9

35.0

36.0

37.1

%growth

14.3%

2.1%

-3.7%

-8.5%

-4.1%

5.3%

6.4%

10.0%

3.7%

10.5%

3.0%

3.0%

3.0%

3.0%

ofwhich:SouthKorea

4.2

4.2

4.0

3.9

3.5

3.4

3.7

4.2

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.1

%growth

-7.2%

0.1%

-4.7%

-1.9%

-11.1%

-1.1%

8.5%

12.7%

-2.4%

-0.6%

0.5%

0.5%

1.0%

0.0%

ofwhich:India

4.2

4.4

4.7

4.2

3.3

4.2

5.1

5.4

5.7

5.9

6.2

6.4

6.7

6.9

%growth

9.7%

6.0%

6.7%

-11.0%

-22.6%

27.7%

23.1%

6.5%

3.8%

5.0%

4.0%

4.0%

4.0%

4.0%

ofwhich:ASEAN

3.9

3.9

4.2

4.0

2.8

3.5

4.4

4.2

3.8

3.8

4.1

4.4

4.6

4.8

%growth

3.0%

0.3%

7.7%

-3.9%

-30.5%

24.4%

25.4%

-3.1%

-10.3%

-1.0%

8.0%

7.0%

5.0%

5.0%

Other

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

%growth

180.8%

-5.5%

-19.3%

-15.7%

-17.5%

39.5%

-24.7%

-1.6%

8.4%

3.0%

-3.0%

-3.0%

-3.0%

-3.0%

ROW

2.3

2.6

2.6

2.0

1.8

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.2

2.0

1.9

1.8

1.7

%growth

15.7%

12.2%

0.3%

-22.3%

-12.0%

16.5%

9.1%

2.7%

2.0%

-5.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

-5.0%

-5.0%

Total

93.1

95.3

94.2

88.7

74.6

77.2

82.3

90.5

89.6

92.8

94.0

95.4

96.8

98.4

%growth

4.9%

2.3%

-1.2%

-5.8%

-15.9%

3.5%

6.7%

9.9%

-1.0%

3.6%

1.3%

1.4%

1.5%

1.6%

Source:UBSestimates

Toassesswhereweareintheinventorydigestioncycle,weshowbelowy-o-yautoproductiongrowthvs.y-o-yautosemirevenuegrowth.Whenproductiongrowthisoutpacingautosemigrowth,wecanseethisasanindicatorthatthesectorisgoingthroughaninventorydigestion.Basedonthismetric,weestimatethesectorenteredaperiodofinventorydigestioninQ3'23,whichlikelytroughedinQ1'25,andiseasingthroughtheyear.

Figure25:AutoproductiongrowthoutpacedautosemisrevenuegrowthinQ1'24,markingthestartofaninventorydigestion

Autoproductiongrowthvs.Autosemirevenuegrowth50.0%

40.0%

30.0%

20.0%

10.0%

0.0%

-10.0%

-20.0%

-30.0%

Inventorybuild

Inventorydigestion

Mar-12Mar-13Mar-14Mar-15Mar-16Mar-17Mar-18Mar-19Mar-20Mar-21Mar-22Mar-23Mar-24Mar-25Mar-26

80.0%

60.0%

40.0%

20.0%

0.0%

-20.0%

-40.0%

-60.0%

Source:UBSestimates,companydata,VAconsensus

Onelimitationwiththeaboveisitdoesnotaccountforsemicontentgrowth,whichweestimateaddsaround8%annuallytoautosemisrevenue.Whenaccountingfo