2025年全球气候状况报告 State of the Global Climate 2025

WMO-No.1391

StateoftheGlobal Climate 2025

WMO-No.1391

©WorldMeteorologicalOrganization,2026

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StateoftheGlobalClimate20253

Contents

Scope 4

Summary 5

Keyindicators

Atmosphericcarbondioxide......................................................................6

Globalmeannear-surfacetemperature 8

Oceanheatcontent 10

Globalmeansealevel 12

OceanpH 14

Glaciermassbalance 16

Sea-iceextent 18

Earth’senergyimbalance 20

Climatedrivers

ElNiño–SouthernOscillation 22

IndianOceanDipole 23

Globalpatternsoftemperatureandprecipitation 24

High-impactweatherandclimateevents 26

Casestudy:Climateandheatimpactsonhealth 28

Datasetsandmethods 30

Contributors 39

Endnotes 41

Weneedyourfeedback

Thisyear,theWMOteamhaslaunchedaprocesstogatherfeedbackontheStateoftheClimate

reportsandareasforimprovement.Onceyou

havefinishedreadingthepublication,weaskthatyoukindlygiveusyourfeedbackbyrespondingtothisshortsurvey.Yourinputishighlyappreciated.

StateoftheGlobalClimate20254

Scope

Aboutthereport

TheStateoftheGlobalClimateisanannualWMOflagshipreport.Itprovides

authoritativeinformationonthestateoftheclimatesystembyupdatingkeyobservedclimateindicatorsandpresentingselectedhigh-impactweatherandclimateevents.

ItcomplementstheworkoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)andotherinstitutionsbydeliveringatimely,consolidatedglobalassessmentoftheyear’sclimateconditions.ThereportisproducedbyWMOincollaborationwithNational

MeteorologicalandHydrologicalServices,internationaldatacentres,leadingclimateresearchinstitutionsandUnitedNationspartners.

Whatthereportcovers

•Keyobservedglobalclimateindicators:g

lobaltemperature

,

greenhousegases

,

oceanheat

,

sealevel

,

ocean

pH,

sea-iceextent

,

glaciermassbalance

andintroducinganewindicatoron

Earth’senergyimbalance

.

•High-impactweatherandclimateeventsof2025:

heatandcoldextremes,floods

,

droughts

,

tropicalcyclones

.

•Casestudy:c

limateandheatimpactsonhealth

.

•Datasourcesandmethods:

detailedinformationaboutthedatasourcesand

processing

.

Whatthereportdoesnotcover

•Itdoesnotprovideclimateprojectionsorforecasts.

•Itdoesnotprovidein-depthscientificdiscussion.

•Itdoesnotprovideextensiveregionalornationaldetail.

•Itdoesnotprescribepolicyactionsormitigationpathways.

Whothisreportisfor

•NationalHydrologicalandMeteorologicalServices,toprovideglobalcontexttoregionalandnationalclimateinformation.

•Policymakers,toinformglobal,regionalandnationalclimatedecisions.

•Scientistsandtechnicalexperts,asareferenceforclimatedataandtrendsofkeyclimateindicators.

•Mediaandeducators,foranaccurateandaccessiblesynthesisofclimateinformation.

•Generalpublicandyouth,tobetterunderstandhowtheclimateischanging.

OtherrelevantWMOreports

•RegionalStateoftheClimatereportsfor

Africa

,

Asia

,

LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean

,

South-WestPacific

and

Europe(withtheCopernicusClimateChangeService(C3S))

providemoredetailedregionalanalysesofkeyclimateindicatorsalongsideimpactandriskinformation.

•The

StateofGlobalWaterResources

isacomprehensivequantitativeoverviewofglobalwaterresources,withafocusonhydrologicalvariabilityandtrends.

•The

WMOGreenhouseGasBulletin

isanupdateofthestatusofkeygreenhousegasesintheatmosphere.

•WMO

ElNiño/LaNiñaUpdates

areregularreportsonthestateandforecastsfortheElNiñoSouthernOscillation.

Howtocite

WorldMeteorologicalOrganization(WMO).StateoftheGlobalClimate2025.

(WMO-No.1342).Geneva,2026.ISBN:978-92-63-11299-7.

/10.59327/WMO/S/CRl/SOC1

StateoftheGlobalClimate20255

Summary

ThetemperatureoftheEarthchangesinresponsetotherateatwhichenergyentersand

leavestheEarthsystem.Increasingconcentrationsofgreenhousegasesintheatmospheresuchas

carbondioxide

,methaneandnitrousoxide,allofwhichreachedtheirhighest

levelin800000yearsin2024(thelastyearforwhichwehaveconsolidatedglobalfigures),reducetherateatwhichenergyleavestheEarthsystem.Thisimbalance–the

Earth’s

energyimbalance

,anewindicatorinthisyear’sreport–leadstoanaccumulationofexcessenergy.

Oneofthelongestobservationalrecordsofclimatechangeisthatof

globalmean

near-surfacetemperature

.Thepastthreeyearsarethethreewarmestyearsinthe

176-yearcombinedlandandoceanobservationalrecord.Theyear2025isthesecondor

thirdwarmestyear,dependingonthedatasetused,slightlycoolerthantherecordwarmthof2024,dueinparttothe

transitionfromElNiñoatthestartof2024toLaNiña

in2025.

Thewarmingseenatthesurfaceandthroughoutthetroposphererepresentsjust1%oftheexcessenergytrappedbygreenhousegases.

Thevastmajorityoftheexcessenergy–around91%–hasbeenabsorbedbytheoceanintheformofheat.

Oceanheatcontent

reachedanewrecordhighin2025,reflectingthecontinuedincreaseinenergy.

Another3%oftheexcessenergywarmsandmeltsice.Ina

globalsetofreferenceglaciers

withlong-termmeasurements,eightofthetenmostnegativeannualglaciermass

balancessince1950haveoccurredsince2016.TheicesheetsonAntarcticaandGreenlandhavebothlostsignificantmasssincesatelliterecordsbegan.

The

extentofseaiceintheArctic

hasdecreasedinallseasonssincesatellite

measurementsbeganin1979,andtheannualmaximumextentin2025wasthelowestorsecondlowestintheobservedrecords

.Sea-iceextentaroundAntarctica

showedasmalllong-termincreaseuntil2015,butsincethen,extentsthroughouttheannualcyclehave

droppedconsiderably,andthepastfouryearshaveseenthefourlowestAntarcticsea-iceminimaonrecord.

Thewarmingoceanandmeltingoficeonlandfromglaciersandicesheetshavebothcontributedtothelong-termrisein

globalmeansealevel

.Therateofglobalsea-levelrisehasincreasedsincesatellitemeasurementsbeganin1993.

Theremaining~5%oftheexcessenergyisstoredinthecontinents,increasingthetemperatureofthelandmassandtherebyaffectingterrestrialprocesses.

Aswellasabsorbingthemajorityoftheenergytrappedbyincreasingconcentrations

ofgreenhousegases,theoceanhasalsoabsorbedaround29%oftheanthropogenic

emissionsofcarbondioxideinthepastdecade.Whilethishelpstobuffertheeffects

ofclimatechange,italsoaltersthechemicalcompositionoftheoceanwater,

reducing

thepHinaprocessknownasoceanacidification

.

Theserapidlarge-scalechangesintheEarthsystemhavecascadingimpactsonhumanandnaturalsystems,contributingtofoodinsecurityanddisplacementwherehazardsintersectwithhighvulnerabilityandlimitedadaptivecapacity.

StateoftheGlobalClimate20256

KEYINDICATOR

Atmosphericcarbondioxide

Keymessages

In2024,theatmosphericconcentrationofcarbon

dioxidereacheditshighestlevelinthelast2millionyears.Levelsofmethaneandnitrousoxidereachedtheirhighestlevelsinthelast800000years.

Theincreaseintheannualcarbondioxide

concentrationin2024wasthelargestannual

increasesincemodernmeasurementsbeganin1957.

Real-timedatafromindividuallocationsshow

thatlevelsofthesethreemaingreenhousegasescontinuedtoincreasein2025.

Theglobalannualaveragemolefractionofcarbondioxide(CO2)inthe

atmosphere—theatmosphericconcentration—reachedanewobserved

highin2024,thelatestyearforwhichconsolidatedglobalfiguresare

available(Figure1).At423.9±0.2partspermillion(ppm),theconcentration

in2024was3.5ppmmorethanin2023and152%oftheestimated

pre-industrialconcentration(in1750).1Theconcentrationof423.9ppmcorrespondstoabout3306GtCO2intheatmosphere.

Theincreasein2024wasthelargestannualincreaseintheCO2concentrationsincemodernmeasurementsbeganin1957.Thisincreasewasdrivenby

continuedfossilCO2emissions,increasedfireemissionsandreduced

effectivenessofterrestrialandoceansinksin2024.Concentrationsof

methane(CH4)andnitrousoxide(N2O),twootherkeygreenhousegases,alsoreachedrecordhighobservedlevelsin2024.TheconcentrationofCH4reached1942±2partsperbillion(ppb),266%ofpre-industriallevels,andthatofN2Oreached338.0±0.1ppb,125%ofpre-industriallevels.

Real-timedatafromindividualstationsshowthatlevelsofCO2,CH4andN2Ocontinuedtoincreasein2025.

Stateoftheindicator

Figure1.Annualmeangloballyaveragedatmosphericmolefractionofcarbondioxidefrom1984to2024inpartspermillion(ppm)

Source:DataarefromtheWorldDataCentreforGreenhouseGases(WDCGG).SeeDatasetsandmethods.

StateoftheGlobalClimate20257

AssociatedrisksofatmosphericCO2andtheSustainableDevelopmentGoals

AtmosphericCO

VariationChanges

incrop

productivity

Enhanced

greenhouse

effect

Food

insecurity

tonutrientcontent

Airpollution

acidification

Ocean

Indicatorbackground

Thehuman-causedincreaseintheconcentrationofCO2intheatmosphere

isthelargestdriverofclimatechange.CO2accountsforaround66%ofthe

radiativeforcingbyalllong-livedgreenhousegasessince1750andabout79%

oftheincreaseoverthepastdecade.2Currentatmosphericconcentrationsof

CO2arehigherthanatanytimeinatleast2millionyears3basedonproxydata.ConcentrationsofCH4andN2Oarehigherthanatanytimeinatleast800000years.

Theconcentrationsofgreenhousegasespresentedhere(Figure1)areestimatedfrommeasurementsmadeacrossagloballycoordinatednetworkcoveringthe

period1984-2024.Pre-industrialconcentrationsareestimatedusingairtrappedinicecoreswiththeyear1750beingusedtorepresentpre-industrialconditions.

AtmosphericconcentrationsofCO2reflectabalancebetweenCO2sourcesand

sinks.TheanthropogenicsourcesofCO2arerelatedtotheburningoffossilfuelandcementproductionalongwithlandusechangessuchasdeforestation.SinksofCO2includeuptakebyvegetationandtheocean.

TheportionofCO2emittedbyhumanactivitiesthatremainsintheatmosphereisknownastheairbornefraction.ItvariesfromyeartoyearduetothehighnaturalvariabilityofCO2sinks,particularlythoseonland.Naturalsourcesandsinksof

CO2areaffectedbyclimatechangeviaincreasingtemperature,changesinprecipitation,andsusceptibilitytobiomassburning.

Duringthe2015–2024period,50%ofthetotalemissionsofCO2remainedinthe

atmosphere,drivingtheincreaseinatmosphericconcentrations.Theestimated

oceansinkaccountedfor29%ofemissionsandtheestimatedlandsinkaccountedfor21%.4

StateoftheGlobalClimate20258

KEYlNDlCATOR

Globalmeannear-surfacetemperature

Keymessages

Theannuallyaveragedglobalmean

near-surfacetemperaturein2025was

1.43°C±0.13°Cabovethe1850–1900averageusedtorepresentpre-industrialconditions.

Theyear2025wasthesecondorthirdwarmestyearinthe

176-yearobservationalrecord,dependingonwhichofnine

datasetsisused.Theyear2024remainsthewarmestyearinallthedatasets,at1.55°C±0.13°Cabovethe1850–1900average.

Forglobalmeantemperature,thepastelevenyears,2015–2025,weretheelevenwarmest

yearsonrecord.

Basedonasynthesisofnineglobaltemperaturedatasets(see

Datasetsandmethods

),theannuallyaveragedglobalmeannear-surfacetemperaturein2025was1.43°C±0.13°C(90%uncertaintyrange)abovethe1850–1900average.Dependingonthedataset

used,2025wasthesecond(twodatasets)orthird(sevendatasets)warmestinthe

176-yearobservationalrecord(Figure2).Thewarmestyearwas2024withananomalyof1.55°C±0.13°C.Thepastelevenyears,2015-2025,weretheelevenwarmestyearson

recordandthepastthreeyears2023–2025,thethreewarmestinallninedatasets.

Theannualglobalmeantemperatureof2025waslowerthantherecordhighof2024,consistentwiththeshiftfromastrongElNiñoatthestartof2024toweakLaNiña

conditionsatthestartandendof2025.Despitethis,2025continuedarunof

exceptionallyhighglobaltemperaturesandJanuary2025wasthewarmestJanuaryonrecord.

ln2025,theglobalmeanlandtemperaturewasthesecondorthirdhigheston

recordat0.80°Cabovethe1991–2020average.Theglobalmeansea-surface

temperature(SST)–thetemperatureintheupperfewmetresoftheocean–was

thethirdhighestonrecordat0.39°Cabovethe1991–2020average.DespiteLaNiña

conditions,around90%oftheoceansurfaceareaexperiencedatleastonemarine

heatwaveduring2025andonly18%experiencedamarinecoldwave.Oceanheat

content,referringtotheupper2000metresoftheocean,wasthehighestonrecord

(see

Oceanheatcontent

).SSTismorevariablethanoceanheatcontentbecauseit

representsthetemperatureofamuchthinnerlayer(afewmetresforSSTascomparedto2000mforoceanheatcontent)whichcanthuschangetemperaturemorequickly.

Stateoftheindicator

Figure2.Annualglobalmeantemperatureanomaliesrelativetoapre-industrial(1850–1900)baselineshownfrom1850to2025

Source:Dataarefromthedatasetsindicatedinthelegend.FordetailsseeDatasetsandmethods.

BerkeleyEarthHires(1850–2025)CMA–GMST(1850–2025)

CMST(1850–2025)

DCENT-I(1850–2025)

ERA5(1940–2025)

GISTEMP(1880–2025)

HadCRUT5(1850–2025)

JRA-3Q(1947–2025)

NOAAGIobalTempv6(1850–2025)

StateoftheGlobalClimate20259

Indicatorbackground

Globalmeannear-surfacetemperatureisthetemperaturenearthesurfaceoftheEarthaveragedacrossitswholesurface.

Globalmeantemperatureisestimatedusingairtemperaturesmeasuredatweatherstationsataheightofaround1.5to2mandsea-surfacetemperaturesmeasuredbyshipsandocean

buoys.Dataarequalitycontrolledandcorrectedforchangesinhowtemperaturesweremeasured,thengapsarefilled

usingstatisticalmethods.Globalmeantemperaturecan

alsobecalculatedusingreanalyses,whichuseaweather

forecastingsystemtocombinemanykindsofmeasurement,includingsatellitemeasurements,intogloballycomplete

fields.Reanalysis-basedestimatesarerepresentativeofairtemperatureacrosslandandocean.

Ninedatasets,includingtworeanalyses,wereusedtoassessglobaltemperatureinthisreport(see

Datasetsandmethods

).Togethertheycovertheperiodfrom1850tothepresent,

thoughnoteverydatasetcoversthewholeperiodfrom1850(seeFigure2).Thereareminordifferencesbetweentheseries,howevertheyshowlargelythesamevariationsduringthe

periodinwhichtheyoverlap.Differencesarelargerearlierintherecord,leadingtosmalldifferencesintheirassessmentoflong-termchange(around0.1°C–0.2°C).Thesedifferencesarefactoredintotheuncertaintyestimatesforanomaliesrelativeto1850–1900.

Asingleyearwithanannualglobalmeantemperatureover1.5°Cabovethe1850–1900average,suchas2024,doesnotindicatethatwehaveexceededthe1.5°Cwarminglevel

mentionedinthelong-termtemperaturegoaloftheParis

Agreement,becausethegoalreferstochangesoverdecadesnotindividualyears.

Permafrostthawing

Increase

greenhouse

gasrelease

andadditional

greenhouse

effect

AssociatedrisksofincreasedglobalmeansurfacetemperatureandtheSustainableDevelopmentGoals

Built

infrastructuredegradation

Reducedlivelihoods

Declineinagriculturalandfishing

yields

Global

health

issues

Biodiversitychanges

andlosses

Species

decline

Displacement

Conflicts

Water

scarcity

Food

insecurity

Reinforcedbyextreme

events(e.g.flood,drought,heatwavesandwildfires)

Globalmeansurfacetemperature

StateoftheGlobalClimate202510

KEYINDICATOR

Oceanheatcontent

Keymessages

Overthepastnineyears,eachyearhassetanewrecordforoceanheatcontent.

Therateofoceanwarmingoverthepasttwodecades,2005–2025,ismorethantwicethatobservedovertheperiod1960–2005.

In2025,oceanheatcontentreachedthehighestlevelinthe66-yearobservationalrecord,

exceedingthepreviousrecordhighsetin2024.

Stateoftheindicator

In2025,observedglobaloceanheatcontent(intheupper2000moftheocean)setarecord,5exceedingthepreviousrecordsetin2024by24±16ZJ(Figure3).Overthepastnineyears,eachyearhassetanewrecordforoceanheatcontent.Instrumentalrecordsofglobaloceanheatcontentstartaround1960.

Therateofoceanwarmingoverthepasttwodecades(2005–2025)was11.0–12.2ZJperyear,whichismorethantwicethatobservedovertheperiod1960–2005,forwhichtheratewas3.05–3.91ZJperyear.

ThelatestIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)reportconcludedthat

itwasvirtuallycertainthatoceanheatcontenthadincreasedsincethe1970sand

extremelylikelythatthemaindriverwashumaninfluence.Basedonthedatasetsusedhere,globaloceanheatcontentincreasedatarateof5.8±0.5ZJperyearaveraged

overtheareaoftheoceanfrom1971to2025,whichisconsistentwiththeIPCCreport.6Overtheperiod1970–2025,thedeepocean(2000–6000m)warmedatarateof

1±0.2ZJperyear.7

Copernicus(2005–2025)

Miniereetal.2023(1960–2025)

Chengetal.(1960–2025)

vonSchuckmanetal.(1960–2025)

Figure3.Annualglobaloceanheatcontentdownto2000mdepthfortheperiod1960–2025,inzettajoules(ZJ).Onezettajouleis1021joules.Theshadedareaindicatesthe2-sigma

uncertaintyrangeoneachestimate.Fordetailssee

Datasetsandmethods

.

StateoftheGlobalClimate202511

Indicatorbackground

TherateofoceanwarmingrevealshowrapidlytheEarthsystemistrappingsurplusenergyintheformofheatfromclimateforcings.Around5%ofthatsurplusenergyiswarmingtheland,1%is

warmingtheatmosphereand3%iswarmingandmeltingthe

cryosphere.However,themajority,around91%,goesintowarmingtheocean.8Changesinoceanheatcontentarethereforeakey

indicatorofclimatechange.

Theintegrationofoceantemperaturesfromthesurfacetoadepth

of2000mprovidesameasureofoceanheatcontent.9,10Ocean

temperatureshavebeenmeasuredbyresearchshipsforovera

century,butobservationsaretoosparsetoformaglobalaverage

beforearound1960and,fortheoceanbelow2000m,beforearound1970.Additionalmeasurementshavebeenmadeusingexpendable

deviceslaunchedfromshipssincethe1970sand,sincearound

2005,near-globalcoveragedownto2000mhasbeenprovidedbyautonomousArgobuoys.

Changesinglobaloceantemperatureareirreversibleoncentennialtomillennialtimescales.Climateprojectionsshowthatocean

warmingwillcontinueoverthetwenty-firstcenturyandbeyondasaresultoftheexistingenergyimbalanceintheEarthsystem,eveniffutureemissionsaresignificantlyreduced.11

Oceanwarminghaswide-reachingconsequences,suchas

degradationofmarineecosystems,biodiversitylossandreductionoftheoceancarbonsink.ltfuelstropicalandsubtropicalstormsand

exacerbatesongoingsea-icelossinthepolarregions.Oceanwarmingtogetherwithicelossonlandisdrivingsea-levelrise.12

AssociatedrisksofincreasedoceanheatcontentandtheSustainableDevelopmentGoals

Reduced

fishingyields

Barriers

tonutrient

content

><

>

Higher

greenhousegas

concentration

andgreenhouse

effect

Algaebloomandeutrophication

Biodiversitychanges

andlosses

Oceanheatcontent

Natural

heritageloss

Greateroceanstratification

Habitat

degradation

Reducedlivelihoods

Food

insecurity

Coral

bleaching

Tourism

losses

Deoxygenation

Conflict

StateoftheGlobalClimate202512

KEYINDICATOR

Globalmeansealevel

Keymessages

In2025,globalmeansealevelwascomparabletotherecord-highlevelsobservedin2024in

thesatellitealtimetryrecord.

Theyear-to-yearincreasefrom2024to2025was

smallerthan2023to2024,consistentwithshort-termvariabilityassociatedwithLaNiñaconditions.

Therateofglobalmeansea-levelrisesince2012ishigherthantherateofglobalmeansea-levelriseintheearlierpartofthesatelliterecord,1993–2011.

Stateoftheindicator

Satellitealtimetryrecordsshowedarapidincreaseinglobalmeansealevelofabout5mmover2023and2024(Figure4)associatedwithastrongElNiñothatendedinearly2024.13In2025,globalmeansealevelcontinuedatlevelscomparableto2024,reflectingthetransitionfromElNiñotoweakLaNiña

conditions(see

Climatedriver:ElNiño–SouthernOscillation

).Theyear-to-yearincreasefrom2024to2025wasthereforesmallerthanfrom2023to2024.

Attheendof2025,theglobalmeansealevelwasaround11cmhigherthanitwasinJanuary1993,thestartofthesatelliterecord.Themeanrateofsea-levelrisehasincreasedwithtime.From1993to2011,sealevelroseatanaverage

rateof2.65±0.3mmperyear.Duringtheperiod2012to2025,theratewas

4.75±0.3mmyear.14

Sealevelhasrisensince1993inalloceanicregions,exceptforanareaofthe

SouthernOceaninthePacificsector.Someareashaverisenfasterthantheglobal

mean,includingthetropicalandsouth-westernPacific,aswellasnorthof30°N

inthePacific.Areaswheresea-levelrisewasslowerthantheglobalmeaninclude

theeasternPacific,southlndianOceanandnorthAtlanticsouthofGreenland.

Therateofsea-levelriseoverthepast33yearsintheIndianOcean,northof30°S,andinthetropicalandeasternAtlanticOcean,hasbeensimilartotheglobalmean.

Figure4.Globalmeansealevelchange(changefromJanuary1993inmm)shownfor1993–2025.Theseasonalcyclehasbeenremovedfromthedata.Theshadedareaindicatestheuncertainty.Source:DatafromAviso,Centrenationald’étudesspatiales(CNES).FordetailsseeDatasetsandmethods.

StateoftheGlobalClimate202513

Indicatorbackground

Globalmeansealevelismeasuredbysatellitesusingradaraltimetersthatrecordthetimetakenforaradarsignaltoreachtheseasurface

andreturntothesatellite.Longerrecords